Thailand Company Guide CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT Version 10 | Bloomberg: CPNREIT TB | Reuters: CPNREITu.BK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 28 Feb 2019 FULLY VALUED Brace for huge NAV fall Last Traded Price ( 27 Feb 2019): Bt27.00 (SET : 1,665.27) Price Target 12-mth: Bt20.50 (-24% downside) (Prev Bt22.80) Maintain FULLY-VALUED with a lower DCF-based TP of Bt20.50. We believe CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT’s Analyst (CPNREIT) current valuation is too stretched. The stock is now Chanpen SIRITHANARATTANAKUL +662 857 7824 trading way above our revised target price (TP) of Bt20.50 based
[email protected] on DCF. We therefore recommend investors take profit. At the current price of Bt27.00, CPNREIT is offering 2019 dividend What’s New yield of 6.2% and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 5.1%. Note • 4Q18 results below expectations that two of CPNREIT’s major assets (CentralPlaza Rama 2 and CentralPlaza Pinklao) accounting for 53.5% of total revenue will • Announced 4Q18 DPU of Bt0.4163, representing a see their leasehold contracts expire in about six years (2024 and 103.9% payout ratio; XD on 8 Mar 2019 2025). Although we believe it’s highly likely that these contracts • Cut forecast by 4-5% in 2019-20 to reflect a more will be extended, the extensions could come with additional conservative rental reversion assumption costs. CPNREIT’s current gearing is at 31%, which is not low. Acquiring additional assets or extending lease agreements will • TP cut to Bt20.50 based on DCF certainly involve both debt and equity financing, making dilution inevitable.