Special report: has Britain’s energy policy turned to gas? issue 199 | october 2012 www.prospect-magazine.co.uk october 2012 | £4.50 $6.99 €6.90 To the rescue Three ways to end recession Gavyn Davies to the rescue: to end recession three ways Italy’s saviour bill emmott Iran’s AIDS paradox tina rosenberg Obama: as good as it gets bronwen maddox Will Europe burn? ISSN 1359-5024 phillip blond A$10.95 NZ$12.50 US$6.99 €6.90 Can$7.99 10 Jane Austen wars richard beck 9 771359 502057 Our fund managers’ most useful tool No. 7: A travel clock Over the past year, we personally interviewed the management of over 3,000 companies worldwide. Murray International Trust Stocks and Shares ISA and Share Plan There’s nothing like being able to judge for yourself. The value of tax benefits depends on individual For us, we won’t add a company to our portfolios without circumstances and the favourable tax treatment first holding a personal interview with its management. for ISAs may not be maintained. 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Telephone calls may be recorded. Please quote MINT PM 06 0912 Prospect MINT PM 06.indd 1 10/09/2012 09:03 prospect october 2012 3 Foreword Right plan, wrong time 2 bloomsbury place, London wc1a 2qa Publishing 020 7255 1281 Editorial 020 7255 1344 Fax 020 7255 1279 Email [email protected] [email protected] Website www.prospect-magazine.co.uk Editorial Editor and chief executive bronwen Maddox Editor at large David Goodhart Deputy editor James elwes No chancellor is liked; in a recession, they are loathed. As Politics editor James Macintyre Books editor David Wolf George osborne has said himself, faced with polling Creative director David Killen Production editor ollie cussen evidence that he is singularly unpopular (peter Kellner, Assistant production editor Jessica Abrahams Web intern Akanksha Awal, Nick renaud- p35), that should be no surprise. He warned everyone of the Komiya effect of his austerity plans when he devised them.s till, Editorial assistant Kasia Delgado, cordelia Lynn, byron orme there is a particular sting to being booed by the crowd of Publishing 80,000 gathered for the paralympics. on the scale of President & co-founder Derek coombs Publisher David Hanger political capital expended, that registers a high reading. Circulation marketing director Jamie Wren Digital marketing: tim De La salle Gavyn Davies writes, not without sympathy, of the Advertising sales director predicament confronting britain’s chancellor (“the Iain Adams, tel: 020 7255 1934 Advertising sales manager Unfortunate Mr osborne,” p30). right plan—until the euro crisis helped throw Dan Jefferson, tel: 020 7255 1934 Finance manager pauline Joy the treasury’s numbers off course, argues the formerBBC chairman and chief Editorial advisory board economist for Goldman sachs. but the politics of every option now are toxic. David cannadine, clive cowdery, Ac Grayling, peter Hall, John Kay, peter Kellner, sticking with plan A will continue to deliver terrible poll ratings, but switching to Nader Mousavizadeh, toby Mundy, robin plan b—a significant U-turn—would be seen as an admission that he was wrong. As Niblett, Jean seaton Associate editors the quip goes, there is no “U” in osborne. Hephzibah Anderson, tom chatfield, What, then, should the chancellor do? Most suggestions are not wildly different James crabtree, Andy Davis, edward Docx, David edmonds, sam Knight, Ian Irvine, from his plan A, even those that present themselves as a radical rejection. ed sam Leith, emran Mian, elizabeth pisani, Wendell steavenson, balls’s prescriptions for public spending are not dramatically higher. Davies, a James Woodall, former Labour government adviser and donor as well as leading city commentator, Contributing editors philip ball, Anthony Dworkin, Josef Joffe, recommends only three adjustments—a bit more public building, some help for Anatole Kaletsky, Michael Lind, Joy Lo Dico, erik tarloff business lending, and some targeted cuts in taxes. but that is not so dramatic as to Annual subscription rates call it a plan b. All the same, he is probably right in his conclusion that so paralysing UK £49; Student £27 are the politics of change that only David cameron could now make even this degree Europe £55; Student £32.50 Rest of the World £59.50; Student £35 of amendment. but if the prime minister rewrote his chancellor’s script, he should prospect subscriptions, 800 Guillat Avenue, Kent science park, sittingbourne, me9 8gu do the same to that of his coalition partners, telling the Lib Dems that some of their Tel 0844 249 0486; 44(0)1795 414 957 Fax 01795 414 555 tax ideas are so hostile to business that they also jeopardise a recovery. Email [email protected] the wider point is that elected leaders across the world are finding it Website www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/subscribe cheques payable to prospect publishing extraordinarily hard to rewrite long-entrenched commitments to spending. bill Ltd. subscription refunds must be made in writing to prospect within four weeks of a emmott argues (p38) that Mario Monti, the technocrat parachuted in to save Italy, new order or renewal, and are subject to an may make a start—but will have only a fraction of the time that an elected politician administration charge of £15. No refunds are paid on quarterly subscriptions. would have. barack obama has been leading in the polls (p26), just, but says the views represented in this magazine are plaintively that no one should have expected “the perfect president.” not necessarily those of prospect publishing As britain goes into a stormy party conference season, it’s clear that recession has Ltd. best endeavours have been taken in all cases to represent faithfully the views of all kicked the heart out of reformers. the few exceptions are mainly those who have contributors and interviewees. the publisher accepts no responsibility for errors, found a voice outside the party mainstream. Frank Field (p16) suggests that Labour omissions or the consequences thereof. should return to the notions of responsibility he argues lay at the heart of beveridge’s Newstrade distribution comag specialist, tavistock road, vision of welfare, although many would retort it is too harsh. phillip blond (p17) offers West Drayton, ub7 7qe, tel: 01895 433716 the prospect of war in europe should britain and others cut armies too far. Images Cover image: Doug Armand/prospect Prospect’s internationally renowned think tank of the Year awards each summer Cartoons by: Kamensky, phil, White, Ian celebrate those who develop the best ideas for reform, and we will look this year baker, Mico, Grizelda, bill proud, the surreal Mccoy, Mazurke, At,Aaron for those who have succeeded in a climate that has become particularly tough for Additional design: Jennifer owens, Mike Kenny change. this is the challenge of hard times: to show that the politics are not so toxic ISSN: 13595024 that they put reform out of reach. proSpect ocToBer 2012 5 Contents October 2012 This month Features Life 6 If I ruled the world michael sandel 74 Butcher boy 30 The unfortunate Mr Osborne 8 Recommends The secret to skilful dismemberment. right plan, wrong time william skidelsky 10 Diary gavyn davies 12 Letters plus The mood darkens 75 Whisky peter kellner Ageing by wood. alice lascelles Opinions 76 Leith on life A modest proposal for car alarms. 16 Rebuilding Beveridge sam leith frank field 77 Travel 17 Will Europe burn? Africa’s lonely wolf. nick redmayne phillip blond 18 Putin is slipping james sherr 20 Tartan timidity frances cairncross plus stephen collins’s cartoon strip. 22 Punk’s not dead vivien goldman 78 Investment Japanese lessons. andy davis Arts & Books 80 We are all architects now Buildings for the 21st century. 38 Saving Italy jonathan r�e can Mario Monti do it? bill emmott 83 Cult leader 24 Criticising China mark kitto Fighting over Jane Austen. 44 Jailed for success richard beck Why Iran imprisoned its HIV experts. Politics tina rosenberg 26 Obama: as good as it gets 50 You have reached your destination Not perfect, but what did you expect? Is satnav killing the cabbie? bronwen maddox hephzibah anderson Science & technology 52 Show me the money Quick cash is here to stay. 62 The twin child of the Big Bang sam knight Why did matter beat antimatter? frank close 58 My day of definitions A dictionary brought to life. edward docx 86 Will performance art tank? Subversive art goes mainstream. laura gascoigne 87 Spain’s hidden treasure A match for Shakespeare james woodall 88 The month in books oliver kamm 65 The month ahead anjana ahuja Memoir Special report: Energy 90 My first coup d’état john dramani mahama 67 The great gas debate dieter helm Endgames 68 The nuclear route to clean energy malcolm grimston 94 The generalist didymus 70 The forces against wind 94 Enigmas & puzzles ian stewart sam fankhauser 95 The Prospect list 72 Solar’s bright future 96 The way we were daniel guttmann TV and the US elections.