Three Ways to End Recession Gavyn Davies to the Rescue: Three Ways Three Recession End to Rescue: the To

Special report: has Britain’s energy policy turned to gas? issue 199 | october 2012 october 199 | issue

www.prospect-magazine.co.uk october 2012 | £4.50 $6.99 €6.90 To the rescue Three ways to end recession Gavyn Davies to the rescue: three ways three recession end to rescue: the to

Italy’s saviour bill emmott Iran’s AIDS paradox tina rosenberg Obama: as good as it gets bronwen maddox

Will Europe burn? ISSN 1359-5024 phillip blond A$10.95 NZ$12.50 US$6.99 €6.90 Can$7.99 10 Jane Austen wars richard beck 9 771359 502057

Our fund managers’ most useful tool No. 7: A travel clock

Over the past year, we personally interviewed the management of over 3,000 companies worldwide.

Murray International Trust Stocks and Shares ISA and Share Plan

There’s nothing like being able to judge for yourself. The value of tax benefits depends on individual For us, we won’t add a company to our portfolios without circumstances and the favourable tax treatment first holding a personal interview with its management. for ISAs may not be maintained. Established in 1907, Murray International Trust PLC is If you have any doubts about the suitability of a conventional investment trust that aims to generate any investment for your needs, please consult an income from a large, diversified global portfolio, and independent financial adviser. is available through our ISA or Share Plan. We only 0500 00 40 00 ever invest in companies that our regional investment Request a brochure: teams have personally selected and approved. www.invtrusts.co.uk You can invest in this trust from £100 per month or £1,000 lump sum. We offer daily dealings for lump sum investments. Do remember that the value of shares and the income from them can go down as well as up. You may not get back the amount invested. No recommendation is made, positive or otherwise, regarding the ISA and Share Plan.

Issued by Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited, 10 Queen’s Terrace, Aberdeen AB10 1YG, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the UK. Telephone calls may be recorded. Please quote MINT PM 06

0912 Prospect MINT PM 06.indd 1 10/09/2012 09:03 prospect october 2012 3 Foreword Right plan, wrong time 2 Bloomsbury Place, London wc1a 2qa Publishing 020 7255 1281 Editorial 020 7255 1344 Fax 020 7255 1279 Email [email protected] [email protected] Website www.prospect-magazine.co.uk Editorial Editor and chief executive Bronwen Maddox Editor at large David Goodhart Deputy editor James Elwes No chancellor is liked; in a recession, they are loathed. As Politics editor James Macintyre Books editor David Wolf George Osborne has said himself, faced with polling Creative director David Killen Production editor Ollie Cussen evidence that he is singularly unpopular (Peter Kellner, Assistant production editor Jessica Abrahams Web intern Akanksha Awal, Nick Renaud- p35), that should be no surprise. He warned everyone of the Komiya effect of his austerity plans when he devised them.S till, Editorial assistant Kasia Delgado, Cordelia Lynn, Byron Orme there is a particular sting to being booed by the crowd of Publishing 80,000 gathered for the Paralympics. On the scale of President & co-founder Derek Coombs Publisher David Hanger political capital expended, that registers a high reading. Circulation marketing director Jamie Wren Digital marketing: Tim De La Salle Gavyn Davies writes, not without sympathy, of the Advertising sales director predicament confronting Britain’s chancellor (“The Iain Adams, tel: 020 7255 1934 Advertising sales manager Unfortunate Mr Osborne,” p30). Right plan—until the euro crisis helped throw Dan Jefferson, tel: 020 7255 1934 Finance manager Pauline Joy the Treasury’s numbers off course, argues the formerBBC chairman and chief Editorial advisory board economist for Goldman Sachs. But the politics of every option now are toxic. David Cannadine, Clive Cowdery, AC Grayling, Peter Hall, John Kay, Peter Kellner, Sticking with Plan A will continue to deliver terrible poll ratings, but switching to Nader Mousavizadeh, Toby Mundy, Robin Plan B—a significant U-turn—would be seen as an admission that he was wrong. As Niblett, Jean Seaton Associate editors the quip goes, there is no “U” in Osborne. Hephzibah Anderson, Tom Chatfield, What, then, should the chancellor do? Most suggestions are not wildly different James Crabtree, Andy Davis, Edward Docx, David Edmonds, Sam Knight, Ian Irvine, from his Plan A, even those that present themselves as a radical rejection. Ed Sam Leith, Emran Mian, Elizabeth Pisani, Wendell Steavenson, Balls’s prescriptions for public spending are not dramatically higher. Davies, a James Woodall, former Labour government adviser and donor as well as leading City commentator, Contributing editors Philip Ball, Anthony Dworkin, Josef Joffe, recommends only three adjustments—a bit more public building, some help for Anatole Kaletsky, Michael Lind, Joy Lo Dico, Erik Tarloff business lending, and some targeted cuts in taxes. But that is not so dramatic as to Annual subscription rates call it a Plan B. All the same, he is probably right in his conclusion that so paralysing UK £49; Student £27 are the politics of change that only David Cameron could now make even this degree Europe £55; Student £32.50 Rest of the World £59.50; Student £35 of amendment. But if the prime minister rewrote his chancellor’s script, he should Prospect Subscriptions, 800 Guillat Avenue, Kent Science Park, Sittingbourne, me9 8gu do the same to that of his coalition partners, telling the Lib Dems that some of their Tel 0844 249 0486; 44(0)1795 414 957 Fax 01795 414 555 tax ideas are so hostile to business that they also jeopardise a recovery. Email [email protected] The wider point is that elected leaders across the world are finding it Website www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/subscribe Cheques payable to Prospect Publishing extraordinarily hard to rewrite long-entrenched commitments to spending. Bill Ltd. Subscription refunds must be made in writing to Prospect within four weeks of a Emmott argues (p38) that Mario Monti, the technocrat parachuted in to save Italy, new order or renewal, and are subject to an may make a start—but will have only a fraction of the time that an elected politician administration charge of £15. No refunds are paid on quarterly subscriptions. would have. Barack Obama has been leading in the polls (p26), just, but says

The views represented in this magazine are plaintively that no one should have expected “the perfect president.” not necessarily those of Prospect Publishing As Britain goes into a stormy party conference season, it’s clear that recession has Ltd. Best endeavours have been taken in all cases to represent faithfully the views of all kicked the heart out of reformers. The few exceptions are mainly those who have contributors and interviewees. The publisher accepts no responsibility for errors, found a voice outside the party mainstream. Frank Field (p16) suggests that Labour omissions or the consequences thereof. should return to the notions of responsibility he argues lay at the heart of Beveridge’s Newstrade distribution Comag Specialist, Tavistock Road, vision of welfare, although many would retort it is too harsh. Phillip Blond (p17) offers West Drayton, ub7 7qe, Tel: 01895 433716 the prospect of war in Europe should Britain and others cut armies too far. Images Cover image: Doug Armand/Prospect Prospect’s internationally renowned Think Tank of the Year awards each summer Cartoons by: Kamensky, Phil, White, Ian celebrate those who develop the best ideas for reform, and we will look this year Baker, Mico, Grizelda, Bill Proud, The Surreal McCoy, Mazurke, AT,Aaron for those who have succeeded in a climate that has become particularly tough for Additional design: Jennifer Owens, Mike Kenny change. This is the challenge of hard times: to show that the politics are not so toxic ISSN: 13595024 that they put reform out of reach. prospect october 2012 5 Contents October 2012

This month Features Life 6 If I ruled the world michael sandel 74 Butcher boy 30 The unfortunate Mr Osborne 8 Recommends The secret to skilful dismemberment. Right plan, wrong time william skidelsky 10 Diary gavyn davies 12 Letters plus The mood darkens 75 Whisky peter kellner Ageing by wood. alice lascelles Opinions 76 Leith on life A modest proposal for car alarms. 16 Rebuilding Beveridge sam leith frank field 77 Travel 17 Will Europe burn? Africa’s lonely wolf. nick redmayne phillip blond 18 Putin is slipping james sherr 20 Tartan timidity frances cairncross plus stephen collins’s cartoon strip. 22 Punk’s not dead vivien goldman

78 Investment Japanese lessons. andy davis Arts & Books 80 We are all architects now Buildings for the 21st century. 38 Saving Italy jonathan r�e Can Mario Monti do it? bill emmott 83 Cult leader 24 Criticising China mark kitto Fighting over Jane Austen. 44 Jailed for success richard beck Why Iran imprisoned its HIV experts. Politics tina rosenberg 26 Obama: as good as it gets 50 You have reached your destination Not perfect, but what did you expect? Is satnav killing the cabbie? bronwen maddox hephzibah anderson Science & technology 52 Show me the money Quick cash is here to stay. 62 The twin child of the Big Bang sam knight Why did matter beat antimatter? frank close 58 My day of definitions A dictionary brought to life. edward docx

86 Will performance art tank? Subversive art goes mainstream. laura gascoigne 87 Spain’s hidden treasure A match for Shakespeare james woodall 88 The month in books oliver kamm 65 The month ahead anjana ahuja Memoir Special report: Energy 90 My first coup d’état john dramani mahama 67 The great gas debate dieter helm Endgames 68 The nuclear route to clean energy malcolm grimston 94 The generalist didymus 70 The forces against wind 94 Enigmas & puzzles ian stewart sam fankhauser 95 The Prospect list 72 Solar’s bright future 96 The way we were daniel guttmann TV and the US elections. ian irvine 6 prospect october 2012 If I ruled the world Michael Sandel

It is time to restore the distinction between good and gold

If I ruled the world, I would rewrite the eco- nomic reasoning exerts on the public mind, incentives to solve social problems. The NHS nomics textbooks. This may seem a small and on our moral and political imagination. is experimenting with what some have called ambition, unworthy of my sovereign office. Not only in textbooks, but also in everyday “health bribes”—cash rewards to people for But it would actually be a big step toward a life, economics presents itself as a value-neu- losing weight, quitting smoking, or taking better civic life. Today, we often confuse tral science of human behaviour. Increas- their prescribed medications. In the United market reasoning for moral reasoning. We ingly, we accept this way of thinking and States, some school districts have tried to fall into thinking that economic efficiency— apply it to all manner of public policies and improve academic achievement among dis- getting goods to those with the greatest will- social relations. But the economistic view of advantaged students by offering them cash ingness and ability to pay for them—defines the world is corrosive of democratic life. It rewards for good grades, high test scores, or the common good. But this is a mistake. makes for an impoverished public discourse, reading books. A charity that operates in the Consider the case for a free market in and a managerial, technocratic politics. US and the UK offers drug-addicted women human organs—kidneys, for example. Text- So here is how I would revise the text- £200 to be sterilised, or to accept long-term book economic reasoning makes such pro- books: I would abandon the claim that eco- birth control devices. posals hard to resist. If a buyer and a seller nomics is a free-standing, value-neutral As ruler of the world, I would not neces- can agree on a price for a kidney, the deal science, and would reconnect it with its ori- sarily abolish these schemes. But I would presumably makes both parties better off. gins in moral and political philosophy. The insist that we ask, in each case, whether the The buyer gets a life-sustaining organ, and classical political economists of the 18th and cash incentive might degrade the goods at the seller gets enough money to make the 19th centuries—from Adam Smith to Karl stake, or drive out non-market attitudes sacrifice worthwhile. The deal is economi- Marx to John Stuart Mill—rightly conceived worth caring about. For example, if we cally efficient in the sense that the kidney economics as a subfield of moral and politi- pay kids to read books, do we simply add goes to the person who values it most highly. cal philosophy. In the 20th century, econom- an additional incentive to whatever moti- But this logic is flawed, for two reasons. ics departed from this tradition, defined itself vations may already exist? Or, do we teach First, what looks like a free exchange might as an autonomous discipline, and aspired to them that reading is a chore, and so run not be truly voluntary. In practice, the sell- the rigour of the natural sciences. the risk of corrupting or crowding out the ers of kidneys would likely consist of impov- The notion that economics intrinsic love of learning? erished people desperate for money to feed offers a value-neutral sci- If market values sometimes crowd out their families or educate their children. ence of human behav- attitudes and values worth caring about Their choice to sell would not really be free, iour is implausible but (such as the love of learning for its own but coerced, in effect, by their desperate increasingly influen- sake), then market reasoning must condition. tial. Consider the answer to moral reasoning. Standard eco- So before we can say whether any partic- growing use of cash nomic models assume that markets are ular market exchange is desirable, we have inert, that they do not touch or taint the to decide what counts as a free choice rather goods they exchange. But if buying and than a coerced one. And this is a normative selling certain goods changes their mean- question, a matter of political philosophy. ing, then the case for markets cannot rest The second limitation to market rea- on efficiency considerations alone. It must soning is about how to value the good also rest on a moral argument about how to things in life. A deal is economically effi- value the goods in question. cient if both parties consider themselves While revising the economics textbooks, better off as a result. But this overlooks the I would issue one modest decree: I’d possibility that one (or both) of the parties ban the use of an ungainly new may value the things they exchange in the verb that has become popular wrong way. For example, one might object these days in the jargon of politi- to the buying and selling of kidneys— cians, bankers, corporate exec- even absent crushing poverty—on the utives, and policy analysts: grounds that we should not treat our “incentivise.” Banning this bodies as instruments of profit, or as verb might help us recover collections of spare parts. Similar argu- older, less economistic ments arise in debates about the moral ways of seeking the public status of prostitution. Some say that good—deliberating, rea- selling sex is degrading, even in cases soning, persuading. where the choice to do so is not clouded Michael Sandel is a by coercion. professor of philosophy at I’m not saying that, if I ruled the world, Harvard and the author of I would ban these practices. I have a bigger “What Money Can’t Buy”

d son Davi Duncan e s TED/Jam © goal in mind: to loosen the hold that eco- (Allen Lane) In the last few years Sky has opened offices in communities such as Bristol, Leeds, Newcastle, Sheffield and Stockport – creating valuable new jobs in difficult times. In fact, employment at Sky increased by over 40% between 2006 and 2011, while employment across the UK went up by just 1%. Today almost 23,000 people work at Sky. And because we do business with thousands of other companies, tens of thousands more jobs across the country are kept secure as well. Together, we’re doing our bit to keep Britain working.

sky.com/believeinbetter

010220 Employment Spectator Mag 276x210mm.indd 1 20/07/2012 15:33 8 prospect october 2012 Prospect recommends Five things to do this month

Night Heron, Parlour Song—con- Dance tained the same sort of simmer- ing magical tension that erupted DESH in Mark Rylance’s now legendary, Sadler’s Wells, 2nd to 9th October larger-than-life performance as Akram Khan’s semi-autobiograph- Johnny “The Rooster” Byron in ical work reveals a choreographic Jerusalem. So it will be fascinat- storyteller at the peak of his pow- ing to see how Butterworth and ers. The Anglo-Bangladeshi art- Rickson scale back—or will they?— ist has always mixed imaginative in their new collaboration at the staging with traditional and con- Royal Court’s studio theatre, in temporary dance forms. But never which a man and a woman are dis- before have all the elements com- covered on a moonlit night in a bined so triumphantly. remote cabin on the cliffs. Desh means “homeland” in Butterworth has been a slow Bengali and the work is an explora- burner for 20 years, heavily influ- tion of Khan’s relationship with his enced by Pinter, writing fas- cultural roots, his past and his fam- tidiously and working on the ily. With the aid of a wide-ranging occasional film (he produced and score by Jocelyn Pook, outstanding co-wrote the spy thriller Fair Game, lighting by Michael Hulls and end- starring Sean Penn). After Jerusa- lessly inventive visuals by Crouching lem, the stakes may be higher, but Tiger, Hidden Dragon designer Tim you can’t see him selling out or Yip, this is an extraordinary exam- Blow-Up, Untitled 5 (detail) by Ori Gersht, at the National Gallery changing his tune. ple of dance/theatre fusion. Michael Coveney Alone on stage, Khan conjures hang alongside early masterpieces that the number of seed spirals on characters out of the air—from by the greatest French and British a flower would always be a number the little girl to whom he tells a photographers, as well as work by from the Fibonacci sequence (1, folk tale, to a village cook he rec- contemporary photographers and 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, and so on). Opera reates with a face painted on top video artists who draw consciously Growers’ diaries (including some Wexford Opera Festival of his bald head. The use of naïve from painting traditions. captivating time-lapse footage) will 24th October to 4th November animations projected onto a gauze Martin Parr’s photographs will be unveiled alongside the results. It sounds like a joke: a festival of allows him to interact with birds, hang beside Gainsborough’s Mr As well as film screenings, unknown operas by unfamiliar an elephant and even a crocodile. and Mrs Andrews, while Ori Ger- talks and debates, there will be an composers in a tiny Irish coastal Khan’s cocktail of folklore, his- sht’s digital still life, Blow Up No. installation from fashion designer town in windswept October. But tory, humour and horror folds into 05, will be displayed alongside Helen Storey, showing how now in its 61st year, with a superb a continuous narrative that deliv- the Fantin-Latour that inspired clothes could be used to counter new opera house tucked away ers a triple whammy to the heart, it. The work of certain contempo- air pollution, and the duo Science among the cobbled streets, Wex- mind and guts. rary photographers will even infil- Junkies, who explain—through ford Festival Opera is anything Neil Norman trate the august main galleries, adrenalin sports—how the human but a punchline. For two weeks while Maisie Broadhead and Jack body works. The festival will also every year this maverick festival Cole’s video piece An Ode to Hill host Manchester’s first Hacka- showcases the rarities and redis- and Adamson—inspired by a pho- thon, a 24-hour coding competi- coveries that bigger opera compa- Art tograph of the wife of the National tion, where caffeine and Wi-Fi will nies wouldn’t dare to tackle. And Seduced by Art: Photography Past Gallery’s first director—reminds flow freely.E ven in the systematic, what’s more it does it to a packed and Present us that the Gallery and photogra- rational world of scientific inquiry, house and—don’t let the black tie National Gallery, 31st October to phy grew up together. moments of brilliance can arrive fool you—with none of the airs and 20th January 2013 Emma Crichton-Miller during frenzied all-nighters. graces of other opera festivals . Right from the beginning, early Laura Marsh This year’s lineup includes photographers in Britain and Chabrier’s sharply modern com- ondon L France saw their medium as the Science edy of an unwilling king, Le Roi equal of painting. Pioneers such Malgré Lui, and, most excitingly, a as Julia Margaret Cameron and Manchester Science Festival Theatre production of A Village Romeo and Sc hnelle, Gustave le Gray took on the high 27th October to 4th November The River Juliet in celebration of the 150th themes of religion, history, por- This year’s Manchester Science Royal Court, London, 18th October to anniversary of composer Freder- traiture, and landscape, drawing Festival will be a celebration of 17th November ick Delius’s birth. Walk through consciously on Old Master paint- order. Or at least an attempt to Long before their collaboration the meandering streets to the ery + Mu mm ery a nd ing for inspiration and to justify prove that mathematical order on Jerusalem, playwright Jez But- waterfront, attend a lunchtime their own ambitions. can be found in nature. In March, terworth and director Ian Rick- concert, talk music with stran- This October the National Gal- the festival’s organisers launched son were exploring the dark secrets gers in the opera house café with lery deigns to consider this upstart an appeal for sunflowers—if more that lie on the edge of suburbia and its glorious view, and then you’re sibling, in its first exhibition than 3000 people grew one, they beneath the marshlands of East beginning to get the full meas- devoted to photography. Historical would have enough data to test Anglia. These poetic and myste- ure of the Wexford experience.

© Courtesy of the Artist the of Courtesy © paintings from the collection will Alan Turing’s theory. He proposed rious plays—The Winterling, The Alexandra Coghlan At Sky we know about the power of sport – and not just on the screen. That’s why we created Sky Sports Living for Sport – a free scheme for teachers that uses sport to help young people boost their skills, all-round confidence and academic achievement. More than 2,500 schools have joined in so far, which means that Sky Sports Living for Sport has already helped to improve the lives of over 50,000 young people up and down the country.

In partnership with

sky.com/believeinbetter

010220 JD SSLFS Spectator Mag 276x210mm.indd 1 16/08/2012 15:33 10 prospect october 2012 Diary

Cut the nonsense In fact Speaking to the Centre for Policy Studies last month, the Conserva- There are 83m fake Facebook tive MP David Davis commented accounts. that “We have a conspiracy be- Daily Mail, 2nd August 2012 tween the two front benches to ex- aggerate the cuts.” His own party, The phrase “American explained Davis, does this to pla- exceptionalism” was coined in 1929 cate markets, and Labour to raise by Josef Stalin. a sense of grievance. So when the The New Republic, 3rd August 2012 prime minister insists that “we cannot blow the budget on more In the early 1990s, Kim Jong Il spending and more debt,” and Ed imposed a ban on women riding Miliband calls Cameron the “high bicycles in urban areas following the priest of austerity,” remember death of his general’s daughter. It that according to the Office for was lifted in July this year. National Statistics, during July Orange News, 20th August 2012 this year, government spending was 5.1 per cent higher than the Capuchin monkeys refuse to same month in 2011. In the four participate in an experiment if another months April to July, spending monkey is seen to get greater reward was 3.6 per cent higher. for participating. They react even more negatively if the other monkey IDS payback does nothing at all for its reward. Nature, 23rd July 2012 One to watch following the reshuf- ular frustration with David Laws, a unique one. Fast thinking, says fle is the relationship between Iain who was being enticed to step in Kahneman, involves emotion and In Italian, there is a word for a Duncan Smith, George Osborne to an education discussion follow- intuition and frequently leads to summer hit song that is played and David Cameron. IDS fa- ing Nick Clegg’s pitiless dispatch error, whereas slow thinking de- everywhere you go: tormentone. mously refused to move from the of Sarah Teather, the now former pends on rational deliberation. BBC, 26th August 2012 department of work and pensions children and families minister. Obama, who is frequently criti- to the ministry of justice, and of- They realised securing his atten- cised for being too circumspect Manchester City football club has ficials already detect tension.T he dance was going to be a struggle and cool, may be the only reader four data analysts attached to its first chancellor is said to be sceptical when Laws’s office suggested he that Kahneman’s book encour- team and six more for other teams about the universal credit, while “didn’t know enough about edu- ages to do more fast thinking. down to the club’s Under-9s. the work and pensions secretary cation” to take part. “Being a slow thinker for a leader The Guardian, 16th August 2012 was refusing to agree to Treasury is not necessarily an advantage demands to find more savings Zuckerberg of bankers because the public likes a leader The first weather forecast calculated from the benefits bill. to think quickly and react instinc- mathematically took six weeks to Perhaps most interesting is the Andy Haldane, fiercely bright tively,” says Kahneman. calculate and only forecast six hours. upshot of wrangling over univer- executive director of the Bank of Wired, 13th August 2012 sal benefits for pensioners. The England, is suddenly racing up A UKIP play prime minister promised at the the home stretch to become the Sixty-five years after independence, last election not to scrap the free next governor. One long-stand- A performance of EuroCrash! of the 28 states in India only 9 bus passes, winter fuel allowance ing City-watcher told Prospect the Musical at this year’s UK have been officially declared totally and TV licences given to all el- that, though Haldane is “gawky Independence Party confer- electrified. derly people. But Duncan Smith and lacks the social graces that ence caused the librettist David BBC, 31st July 2012 is said to view pensioners as a one normally associates with a Shirreff, European business and much better target than the poor. governor,” a Haldane victory finance correspondent at the Dogs can shake 70 per cent of the Indeed, he has made it clear that would be a major triumph for the Economist, to describe himself as water from their fur in four seconds. were he old enough to receive the nerdy. “He is the Mark Zucker- “a europhile and eurosceptic at The Atlantic, 15th August 2012 winter fuel allowance he would berg of central bankers,” was the the same time.” In the play, Papa pay it back. assessment. Kohl and Madame Mitterrand run a European Currency School Laws school Quick thinking President in the middle of a dense forest peopled by a Currency Snake, The reshuffle played havoc with Thinking Fast and Slow, the sur- Norman Lamont, Angela Merkel hundreds of round table discus- prise bestseller by Daniel Kah- and other strange beasts. Not so sions organised by lobbyists and neman, the Nobel laureate in unlike the real thing. Tickets cost think tanks at conference time, economics, has a new fan: Barack £30 from the UKIP website. By whose plans have been thrown in Obama, according to the New contrast tickets for the leader’s the air in light of the ministerial York Times. However, the mes- luncheon the following day cost a switch-around. One tells of partic- sage he takes away from it may be mere £20. “Try Again” ISA 3 SIPP SHAREDEALING DEMAND

LESS £38,950 extra for your pension1

We know you want a comfortable retirement - so don’t let unnecessary charges reduce the value of your pension. Our Select SIPP offers: s&ULLREBATEOFANYCOMMISSIONSWERECEIVEFROMFUND LESS IN managers which could boost the value of your pension by £38,9501 CHARGES s.OSETUPFEE JUSTALOWFLATRATEANNUALCHARGEOF £135+VAT MORE s!CCESSTOOVER INVESTMENTSINCLUDINGEQUITIES investment trusts, bonds, gilts and funds IN YOUR s&UNDSWITH!NNUAL-ANAGEMENT#HARGESASLOWAS SIPP s2ATEDTHE"EST5SER%XPERIENCEBY4HE0LATFORUM Open a Select SIPP today with a leading financial services provider, administering over £6.2billion2 in assets. Other charges may apply, please refer to our Schedule of Fees. The value of investments can fall as well as rise. You may not get back what you invested and the amount provided for your pension may be affected. Tax reliefs are dependent on individual circumstances and may change in the future.

Apply online now. Go to www.alliancetrustsavings.co.uk/sipp or call 0845 128 6350

1£100,000 invested in a fund over a 20 year term. Calculation fully described on our website. 2As at 30 April 2012. Calls may be recorded. This offer is promoted by Alliance Trust Savings Limited which is registered in Scotland No. SC 98767, registered office, PO Box 164, 8 West Marketgait, Dundee DD1 9YP; is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority; firm reference number 116115; gives no financial or investment advice. 12 prospect october 2012 Letters

Mo and us centrepiece of his policy, that he was not prepared to allow Ismail Einashe presented us with the fishing industry, which he an important and honest analysis regarded as small and expend- of British Somalis (“Mo and Me,” able, to stand in the way of his September). As a British Somali grand design. He accepted from the same generation, I feel the CFP, abandoned Britain’s his piece is a much needed articu- right to build up its own indus- lation of our community’s current try within its own waters, and situation and the journey it has after a brief ten-year “deroga- taken to get here. tion” the full rigours of the EU’s Mo Farah’s Olympic glory is worst and most criticised policy a defining moment in the collec- began to apply. The result has tive history of British Somalis, decimated our fishing industry. particularly for the generation of Our grounds, our jobs and the young people who arrived in the revenues fishing produces have UK in the 1990s. Einashe is right: largely been given away. Mo’s success lies in choosing to Depending heavily on fishing’s integrate fully into British soci- export earnings and its great con- ety—this is something that some “A shift in mindset”: Mo Farah and the British-Somali community tribution to the GDP, and having members of the Somali commu- a very good conservation record nity will not readily admit to. to come as a child from a war- Something fishy within the limits of its 200-mile For British Somalis to move torn country like Somalia and zone, Iceland clearly cannot afford forward there needs to be a shift make it in London, as he and Mo It’s amazing that Stephen Tin- to be so irresponsible as to admit in mindset. We need more voices Farah have. But it also shows that dale of the Centre for European predatory European fishing fleets within the community to cham- for those exceptional individuals Reform can manage to write an and put itself under the sway of pion integration, creating a gen- it is possible. What about the article (“Icelandic squall,” Sep- the world’s worst fishing policy. eration that is positively engaged Somali boys, though, who have tember) on Iceland’s negotia- And given our own dependence on in mainstream British society. ended up in Feltham young of- tions to join the EU without one Icelandic fish imports to replace Hodan Ali fenders’ institution? Or the girls mention of the major problem the catches we used to take for our- London here who have suffered genital which will keep Iceland out of selves, we can’t afford to let it. mutilation? What will happen to full membership, the Common Austin Mitchell Ismail Einashe, in his informa- their children and families? Can Fisheries Policy (CFP). Labour MP, Great Grimsby tive article on Britain’s Somali we make sure that they are not as True, he mentions whales and community, mentions the prac- damaged as their parents? the mackerel dispute where Ice- The Lib Dem tightrope tice of female genital mutilation Integration is a two-way pro- land has a real grievance in that (FGM). Among Somalis, this cess. I hope that as there are it has long been excluded from By entering into a coalition, the Lib usually involves infibulation—the more British Somali role models the carve-up of catches between Dems signed their electoral death removal of the inner and outer in public life—journalism, sport other northern fishing nations. warrant (“The end of the Lib- labia and often the clitoris. Only and politics (we have a young That is unreasonable given that Dems?” May). A coalition with the a small opening is left to allow British Somali councillor in global warming means the stocks junior partner nearer the centre is the girl to urinate and pass men- Camden)—life will be better for have moved north and increas- quite different from one where the strual blood—both of which are the next generation in the UK. ingly into Icelandic waters. Yet junior is the more extreme. excruciatingly painful for her. Sally Gimson these are peripheral matters Imagine the balance being After-effects of FGM include Labour councillor for Highgate which can be negotiated. held by UKIP. A coalition with the fistula, HIV, tetanus, fatal blood- The overwhelming problem Conservatives would not require loss, obstetric fistula and double Fascinating and brilliantly writ- is the disastrous CFP. This was UKIP to make any compromise incontinence. Childbirth is very ten piece; thank you for writing stitched together just weeks be- of principle. Even if UKIP’s sup- dangerous. One expert has it. Very interesting on the im- fore Britain began entry negotia- porters were unhappy over its in- claimed that we are “sitting on a portance of integration into the tions and is based on the princi- fluence within the coalition they mental-health timebomb.” opportunities of British society, ple of equal access to a common would have nowhere else to go. The Home Office estimates and the various barriers to it, resource. Only a nation state set- In coalition with the Conser- that over 20,000 girls in the including the pressure not to in- ting its own 200-mile limits, as vatives, Lib Dems have had to UK are considered to be at risk. tegrate summed up by “fish and most other countries have done, support policies to which they Some Somali women are cam- chips.” It is, though, a more apt can control conservation to en- are opposed. That was inevitable. paigning against the practice, charge than they think, since we sure that the stocks are handed Equally inevitable was that many braving death threats from other owe battered fish to Portuguese- on to its next generations. The of those who voted Lib Dem would women in their community. Jewish refugees in the 18th cen- CFP, on the other hand, is a po- see that as a betrayal. One might Vera Lustig tury, and the addition of chips to litical programme doling out fish argue that joining the Conserva- Walton-on-Thames Jewish immigrants too. to every claimant to satisfy the tives was the principled course. Sunder Katwala demands of the moment. What cannot be gainsaid is that Ismail Einashe’s article was Director of British Future and In the early 1970s Ted Heath the action was electoral suicide. heartbreaking as well as inspir- former general secretary of the was so desperate to get Britain Phil Symmons

© press association images association press © ing. It showed how difficult it is Fabian Society into the Common Market, the Via the Prospect website

14 prospect october 2012

The Orthodox time countries which are trying to taught by British missionaries in the work of columnists writing “lean against” the forces which and later came to university in on behalf of new communities, or bomb make for the rich to get richer England and were married in in the the Labour government’s Gershom Gorenberg (“An Or- and the poor poorer. More invest- Cambridge. I grew up watching directions for the history syllabus. thodox challenge,” September) ment in education, he says, is the them listen to the BBC every David Meakin provides a useful overview of answer. I doubt it. morning as they sipped their tea. Cheltenham Israel’s fundamental socio-eco- The discussion takes me back These rituals acquired during nomic problems, and I laud you to 1985 when the late-lamented their student days loomed large What’s in a voice? for publishing it. You will get Technical Change Centre organ- in my childhood imagination and strong hostility, for Gorenberg ised a conference at Farnbor- probably help explain what led So, Godard does not approve of offers his well known views that ough Castle on technological ad- me to study and eventually settle subtitles (Hephzibah Anderson, seem to induce harsh, haughty vance and social welfare. It dwelt in the UK. “Silent artists,” August)? Well Jewish denial in today’s world of on the contrast between an agri- A new generation is however I must say that’s pretty stiff cognitive dissonance. cultural society and our modern emerging for whom these expe- from a native of France where The now “not fit for purpose” hi-tech society. In the former the riences are less relevant. Britain most foreign films don’t have state of Israel may get bailed out productivity of an IQ 80 farmer probably means far less to my subtitles but are dubbed! Okay, by its new offshore energy pro- and that of an IQ 120 farmer was young nieces than it did to mine in France you may find cinemas duction; sadly otherwise things not all that different because the or my parents’ generations. where they show films in Version are “terminal.” technology they used could be In implementing a rigid, hos- Originale with subtitles. But Neville Craig easily mastered by both. Now, tile immigration policy for citi- on French TV you can find few Wimbledon the market for writers of clever zens from the Commonwealth films and certainly no TV series software, and the market for peo- at a time when those countries’ which are not dubbed. It’s even Congratulations to Gershom ple who can learn to clean hotel fortunes are changing, the co- worse in Germany. Dubbing is Gorenberg for raising the fasci- rooms or lay bricks but not much alition may be shooting itself in quite simply atrocious. I pity nating question of what Israel else, have increasingly divergent the foot as it seeks new economic all those who have never heard can do to address its ultra-Or- price levels. partners. the voices of, for instance, Alec thodox timebomb. Israel nicely The conclusion was that a Dr Ike Anya Guiness, Humphrey Bogart, illustrates that population steady increase in income redis- London Ingrid Bergman or Meryl Streep. change can alter the culture of tribution was the only way for If I were a film director I would an entire society. It also shows societies to hold together, how- Kwasi Kwarteng’s article (“Lega- forbid dubbing of my film—but I that secularisation can go into ever much Olympics and World cy of empire,” September) could suppose that the producer would reverse in a modern society and Cups provided psychological more appropriately have been tell me that I couldn’t afford to. a nation’s youth can be more glue. And as Anthony Crosland headed “recollections” or “nar- Bertil Hylén conservative than its elders. used to point out, redistribution ratives” of empire, since it was Solna, Sweden Haredi-isation of the diaspora is manifestly easier when there is largely retrospective. But even if is taking place at a faster rate growth. That growth is inhibited, we focus on awareness of empire Moth vs hipster than in Israel, which suggests as Stiglitz and Lambert ought to as a historical episode, there are that education and tweaking in- have stressed more, by the re- practical consequences that are I read Sam Leith’s article (“At- centives will not change the fact fusal of the politically powerful, worth remarking on. tack of the moths,” September) that Israel will be a poorer, more who are also the owners of the In every decade since trans- with dread and recognition. As pious country in 2050 than it is world’s financial assets, to con- ferring power to former colonial a reluctant hipster, roughly 70 today. Imagine tech investment template risking inflation. territories, the United States per cent of my wardrobe com- migrating from Israel, with un- Ronald Dore and Britain have been branded prises oversized cardigans, and controlled fertility and a poorly Grizzana Morandi, Italy as “imperialist” in any dispute or thus, understandably, moths are educated population, to Leba- conflict outside Europe. Deter- my cryptonite. My favourite ex- non, with low fertility and high Imperial legacy mination to be “non-aligned” in termination technique is to clap education. the Cold War was one measure them so that they fall from the Eric Kaufmann Paul Walker Bledsoe (“Revelatory of related underlying attitudes sky without sticking to my hand. Birkbeck, University of London games,” September) correctly in newly independent states. I never thought I could kill a liv- suggests that a more salubrious Present-day policymakers must ing creature, but I can’t afford Diminishing returns legacy of Britain’s empire may be recognise the ease with which Buddhist sentiments when my the “soft” power that the vestiges the old characterisation of west- jumper looks like Swiss cheese. Richard Lambert’s cool review of a shared language, culture and ern behaviour may be read into Alex Christofi of Joseph Stiglitz’s book on in- institutions confer in places as their actions. London equality (“Why inequality mat- far flung as India, Jamaica and In the domestic arena, “Com- ters,” August) points out that Nigeria. However, to be a source monwealth immigration” has Have your say inequality is rising even in coun- of real benefit, these relationships brought about an extension of [email protected]. tries not subject to the ravages need to be nurtured. awareness of the empire and its Suggested maximum 200 words. of Anglo-Saxon capitalism—the My Nigerian parents were legacy, of which we are reminded More letters: prospectmagazine.co.uk

In the November issue SpeciaL Offer: London Investor Show Prospect and the London Stock Exchange are offering readers l Oliver Sacks’s hallucinations free entry to the 2012 London Investor Show on 26th l On the trail of Sherlock Holmes October at London Olympia. l America’s agrarian morality The complimentary ticket includes entry to one workshop, a On sale from 18th October total value of £50. To register visit www.londoninvestorshow.com and enter the voucher code “prospect”. BJEUBVPEBVHSBEBFBSFSBIS[BSURVSHFWBPDJD]LQHBSULQGBJEUBVPEBVHSBEBFBSFSBIS[BSURVSHFWWBPDJD]LQHBSULQGGG  30  30

8QWLWOHG  16 prospect october 2012 Opinions Rebuilding Beveridge 16 Will Europe burn? 17 Putin is slipping 18 Tartan timidity 20 Punk’s not dead 22 Criticising China 24

only during the first Wilson government in Frank Field the 1960s that politicians accepted means testing would have a growing influence Rebuilding Beveridge over welfare provision. Even then, hopes remained that an alternative approach Our welfare system undermines the value would somehow emerge. of hard work The universal credit—the sweeping up of six means tested benefits into a single payment—is almost the final destination The longer parties are in power the greater ples that would underpin a new approach. of Gordon Brown’s tax credit journey. But the difficulty they have in breaking free I always thought Gordon Brown’s aim there are two big problems. from their time in government—and their was to replace welfare’s national insurance First, it is doubtful that any government former policies—once they occupy the bedrock with a plethora of means tested can deliver an information technology sys- opposition benches. This rule is playing out tax credits. Iain Duncan Smith’s universal tem that comes close to the expectations with a particular vengeance in Labour’s credit is the logical extension of Brown’s tax which will be placed upon it. With the welfare reform programme. Disengaging credit strategy, which was never more than exception of pension credit, I can think from the past is not made easier for Labour means testing on speed. Both approaches of no government IT scheme that has not by the way that the coalition government are misguided. turned out to be broken backed. One would has copied their welfare approach, tooth William Beveridge, creator of the mod- have to be brave to put any political capital and claw. ern welfare state, initially included means on the IT of the universal credit proving the Such a disengagement is crucial, testing in his national insurance system grand exception to this dismal rule. though, if Labour is to become an effec- thinking that its importance would decline There is for me, however, an even big- tive opposition. It must do so to establish a over time. This did not happen, but it was ger objection. Universal credit is incompat- wider electoral appeal and before the gov- ible with the values the public would wish ernment’s approach fails. Now is the to see thrive in the good society. Here it is time for Labour to important to go back to Beveridge’s first set out the princi- principles. December will mark the 70th

Protesters in Trafalgar Square © Jess Hurd/reportdigital.co.uk a new dialogue would open up with voters. approach became more ethicaldominant traditionaland that Labour’s that ensure won over by 2015. lic opinion—which Labour will need to have also put the government at odds with pub means testing, and resigned because of it.onmajor towrong thought wasIt party the outcome. testingat its core—which can produce this welfaresystem—withstrengthena means wagesucharequest.rightcannot Itbeto despite having no qualifications to back up threetimestherate they gainbenefits,on notdream oftaking jobathat didnot pay finding towork. attitudes their about benefits on people young some asked I when constituency alwaysexampleancomebackto frommy tested support. means any than level higher markedly a ancecontributions and allbenefits paid at nationalhavemoreinsurwhopaidthose contribution a record, with on higher levels of benefit dependent paid to become had paid into the scheme. fare was to be dependent on what a person damental principle was that receipt of wel hard work, honesty and prudence. His fun of citizenryvirtuespracticedthattheent meansmouldingofa active, an independ a pivotal role. theseleaders saw welfare provision taking of a good and virtuous society and both of creation the goal primary its as sawthat Attleewerethatof politicalpart tradition by need. torate, into a system of welfare determined anydebatealoneapprovallet theelecby contributionexchanged,beenhas without welfarethata statedetermined largely by rosiveeffect on this principle. B in the face of the duty-based welfare which flies save;itwho thosepenalises and esty people how behave.Meanstesting encourages affects dishon spending Welfare thatwe now witness an array of problems? wonder any it unrewarded, is left sibility ae welfare. based promisebegintorebuilding insurance-an newproposals on welfare, and amanifesto eridge’s report into policy.intoeridge’s report world war prime minister who turned shared by passion a citizen, of kind certain a ating E inherited from the late Victorian and early B report. wartime great his of anniversary prospect october 2012 october prospect everidge designed. wrin eid psin bu cre about passion a period dwardian everidge was part of that elite who had who elitethat of part everidgewas T B P government I Labour last the During Means testing has, however,testingMeanshas, cor a had B With needs being met, and with respon r o ta srtg sol include should strategy that of art i dbt hs ln hsoy bt I but history, long a has debate his enefit receipt should once again once should receipt enefit everidgewelfare proposalsas hissaw C lement Attlee, the post second S T c a apoc would approach an uch hey told me theywouldmetold hey B everidgeand T heresult is B ev ------Labour does not lie in its past. 2010.in us deserted ciesthat appeal strongly tothe voters who this,we must present fully developed poli oeta atraie government. alternative potential B muchtime left before the election of 2015. fect fit with his vision. However there is not scheme I have devised would seem the capitalism. per to approach responsible savings to top up their state pension. otherup build encouragingpensionersto levels.It would have the further benefit of assistance means-tested abovepayments make to funds the with scheme pension a guaranteeterm longer oversavingsthe Labour in 2008. in Labour ings oae h National the porate tributions from other contributors. ment proposes to pay for it by pinching appeal,con until people realise that electoral considerable the hasgovern testing means for need thereducessystemthat pension sionreforms are in a political cul de sac. A kind of services they wish to pay for. but also give members a direct say over the link,establishthat towouldbution begin separatenational healthinsurance contri preparedcontributors.arepaytoforas A demand as potential patients and what theylish directa link between what individuals in a state of long-term crisis until we estab Heath benefit paid. the levels of and finances its to membershipfor responsible be would It paid. be would contributions insurance national structure would consist of a pot into which n mr sedn o wlae il get will nowhere. welfare on spending more ing ainl nuac benefits. insurance national health, pensions and national insurance. threemutual insurance bodiescontrolling tion by planning a new welfare state run by more than a tax. persuade them their contributions are little forvoters despitegovernment attempts to at the appeal national insurance still holds hinted has revolution, 2012)quiet March years. these of most for run been have deficits Indeed, voters. as theyspendingdemandlevelpublicthe of failed to persuade tax payers to fund fully the since periodwholethe In scheme? a such Poverty andLifeChance the2010Independent Reviewchaired on Frank Field isLabourMPfor Birkenhead.He efore then, we must prove that we are a provemustareeforewethen,wethat E S pen long-term coalition’s the Finally T P T Wethisshouldpublicbuildpercepon Howtopaypropose should Labour for S o a third mutual entity should incor shouldentitymutual third a o eterKellner, writing inthese pages (A e eod hud oe te National the cover should second he he first would take over existing over take would first he d Miliband is trying to set out a new,a out set trying Milibandtois d T econd Worldecond War governments have rust,thepensions schemeupbyset S ervice. Health funding will remain o T pini his should ensure that ensure should his T o he wayforwardforhe ns E mployment S imply advocat imply T e mutual he T do o S T av he ------and how would the west respond? supin. f hr wr a popular a wererevolution in there If assumptions. currentUKand insecure near abroad is entirely absent unstable An 2011.from freeze,saw popular demonstrations the inlate in jammed remains a i a a ue o givestatus. Meanwhile to ruse a as it saw language, official preferred there their were select riots to in Kiev.regions P InAugust, Moscow.when Victor Yanukovych, to looks thepro- that east speaking west that looks tolooks thatwest age-olddivision intoUkrainian a speaking through economic and political ties. over leadership his advance. Under in years two Georgia admittedto approving the 2008 invasion of ence over its “near abroad.” Inwin August,popular support by reasserting its influlin beset by domestic instability might genttry to nationalists and communists resur from pressure under the reaction, and Krem drain droptoaround $60perbarrel. summer that former finance minister, warned earlier this depressing oil prices. Alexei Kudrin,p67)(see arereducing demand forandoil gas of deposits cheap of globe the across barrel. However, a $120 discoveries recent R on oil exports. In order to balanceprofound its economic budget, weakness in its reliance ble (see James of such significance that border there are threats toshould not be taken for granted. Around its mentally rethink its current defence strategy. oreven a sizable conflict in tion appeared to be that a conventional war, unthinkable. wars that big lastAfghanistan thewereand Iraq if T the B Britain must be more vigilant Will Europe burn? P tn rsdn, ind lw allowing law a signed president, utin he security and defence review acted as as defencereviewactedandsecurity he 22, h gvrmn wl hv cut have will government the 2020, y ussianeeds to sell its oil at between $110– hillip Blond kan i priual tne wt its with tense, particularly is Ukraine T B B o the east, ut it isn’t. B ritish Army from 102,000 to 82,000.102,000Armyritishfromto R lrs Urie ad even Ukraine,elarus, and si’ rsre wti mnh; in months;ussia’s within reserves B R ritain would fight. ussia has extended its influence B R T elarus what would ussia should brace itself for a S R he future stability of herr, p18). It suffers from a ussia under E uropeanUnion strategic B R E elarus, a countryelarus,athat si wt a equally an withussia urope, and a andurope, B E ritain must funda uropean security R S E P sin official ussian aiit deep- talinist urope,is now T utin is unsta T he assump P hatwould R rotestors B ussia do R R E ulgaria ussian ussia’s urope P utin 17 ------18 opinions prospect october 2012

In Turkey, whose leaders and people were right backing can not only increase their once desperately keen to join the EU, opinion own wealth, but acquire somebody else’s. has shifted. A survey in August by theT urk- Clean Hands, the NGO, has calculated that ish European Foundation for Education and illicit rent-seeking redistributes 52 per cent Scientific Studies found that the number of GDP. According to Forbes, there are 96 of Turks now in favour of joining the EU billionaires in Russia today. Most of them stood at 17 per cent, a record low. The euro are both dependent upon and at the mercy crisis is hardly an attraction, of course. But James Sherr of a system that has given them their wealth the result is that this crucial eastern neigh- and can take it away. bour sees little need to court Europe. Dur- Putin is slipping The mood of the country is therefore ing a CNN interview in September, Recep very different from what it was in 2004 or Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister, com- The Kremlin’s long-standing even 2008. The financial crisis, which hit mented regretfully that “there are certain resident is heading for trouble Russia harder than any other member of things we expected from the United States,” the G20, not only exposed the predatory which were not forthcoming in Syria. He did Vladimir Putin’s return to a third presi- mores of the state, but its wastefulness and not mention even the possibility of European dential term—de facto his fourth—says dysfunction. Corruption and the abuse of assistance. In short one of the vital security more about Russia than it does about him. power have become increasingly intolera- bulwarks of the EU has started to erode. Whether or not he has been good for Rus- ble to the new urban middle classes whom In Syria and across the southern Med- sia, he has understood it. When he ceases to Putin’s initial reforms largely created. iterranean shore, the Arab spring has understand it, he will be on borrowed time. It is hardly surprising, then, that yielded dangerous uncertainty. The mur- Perhaps that time has begun. Putin’s less than scrupulous return to the der in September of the US ambassador to Western views of Putin often say more presidency has aroused vehement opposi- Libya, Christopher Stevens, demonstrated about the west than about him. These views tion. But it is neither a unified opposition the turmoil and the possible jihadist cap- have changed. When Putin first came to nor an overwhelmingly democratic one. A ture of nations in which revolutions were power in 2000, what many saw behind the fair proportion calling for Russia without regarded as having succeeded. KGB façade was an economic reformer, and Putin is from the far left or far right. More- And even if these Arab revolutions avoid Putin lived up to that image for three years. over, it is unclear how divorced from the tribal and sectional fracture and eventu- He simplified taxes and made oligarchs pay culture of power some of the non-systemic ally lead to stable democracies, southern them, he ensured that workers and the eld- opponents really are. Alexey Navalny, a Europe can still expect waves of migrants erly received salaries and pensions, and he scourge of corruption but a supporter streaming across the sea seeking economic established the confidence and predicta- of the nationalist cause, was appointed opportunities. But the Arab spring could bility that macro-economists and foreign to the board of Aeroflot in June. Kse- also become a harsh winter. A string of investors like. nia Sobchak is the daughter of Anatoliy failed states lined up along Europe’s south- Russians also liked these things, but just Sobchak, former mayor of St Petersburg ern flank would be a security nightmare for as much they liked his promise to restore “a (and Putin’s former boss). What is clear is European governments and an ideal operat- great state.” When Putin had Mikhail Kho- that most of the leaders of the democratic ing platform for al-Qaeda. dorkovsky, head of Russia’s largest private opposition are past their sell-by dates. Hanging over all of these scenarios is energy company, Yukos, arrested in 2003, Needless to say, there is more to the coun- the possibility that Israel will launch aerial the state got greater. Putin became less pop- try than opposition. Independent polling strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Mean- ular in the west and more popular in Rus- suggests Putin would have won the elec- while, Tehran, well supplied with politicians sia. Between 2000 and 2008, he not only tion in the first round even if “electoral of some diplomatic agility, has sent officials restored order to Russia’s affairs, but collec- technology” did not inflate the figure to 64 to Greece to explore whether it—and possibly tive self-respect, and on the basis of prosper- per cent. Cyprus—might be customers for Iranian oil ity and defiance of western liberal orthodoxy. Nevertheless, Russia is entering less should Greece have to leave the euro. Yet for Putin as for nearly every Rus- charted waters. In the matrix of power, And internal threats exist in Europe sian leader, the ultimate political prize was Putin is arbiter rather than dictator. Rus- also—in the medium term solving the euro never public support but dominance of the sia’s 50 or so principal power brokers have crisis risks consigning southern Europe to a system of power. For much of the past 200 no wish for him to be more, and if he is una- generation of austerity, such that long-term years, this has been a networked system of ble to secure their positions and restore politicised unrest seems probable. Even the patronage and privilege that has based its economic momentum, they will wish him UK’s very near abroad no longer looks so authority on rewards, penalties and the dis- to be less. Putin is therefore manoeuvring stable. Yet Britain’s strategic assessments tribution of rents—rather than rights, rules within increasingly narrow co-ordinates. take into account none of these threats. We and robust institutions. With cold political logic but dubious wis- are not prepared. It has also been a system of vicious, sub- dom, he is marginalising the middle class Phillip Blond is director of ResPublica terranean rivalries. Under Boris Yeltsin, and their agenda. He is drawing an omi- these rivalries became visible and fla- nous connection between western democ- grant. Money bought power; the country’s racy promotion and Russia’s internal wealthiest oligarchs effectively privatised problems and has authorised some $700bn much of the state. Putin’s “power vertical” until 2020 for a modernisation drive “com- did not end this relationship but reversed parable to the industrial modernisa- it. In 1999, more than 50 per cent of Rus- tion breakthrough in the 1930s.” This is sia’s GDP was controlled by seven relatively not modernisation as any liberal western independent bankers, according to Boris observer would understand it. Berezovsky. By 2006, five senior Kremlin James Sherr is senior fellow of Russia & officials chaired companies that produced Eurasia programme at Chatham House. His 33 per cent of national wealth. book, “Hard Diplomacy and Soft Coercion,” will “That’s it! Hold it right there!” Today power buys money. Those with the be published by Chatham House later this year THE SCOTTISH AMERICAN INVESTMENT COMPANY

SAINTS AIMS TO BE A CORE INVESTMENT FOR PRIVATE INVESTORS SEEKING INCOME.

A duo for the duration. The fund aims to deliver dividend growth by pursuing income from diverse sources, so it currently invests in equities, bonds, property and forestry. It targets a level of annual income growth ahead of LQÀDWLRQDQGSD\VRXWDGLYLGHQGUHJXODUO\HYHU\TXDUWHU

On top of this, the Scottish American Investment Company also seeks to team up income with capital appreciation by investing in a portfolio of high quality companies on a global basis, each selected for their potential to offer sustainable earnings growth well into the future. It’s a relationship designed to mature over the long term.

The Scottish American Investment Company is an investment trust managed by Baillie Gifford and is available through our Share Plan and ISA.

Please remember, your investment can be affected by changing stock market conditions and by currency exchange rates. The value of your investment and any income from it can fall as well as rise, and you may not get back the amount invested.

For investment that aims to provide dual rewards over the long term, call 0800 027 0133 or visit www.saints-it.com

Baillie Gifford – long-term investment partners

Your call may be recorded for training or monitoring purposes. Baillie Gifford Savings Management Limited (BGSM) is the manager of the Baillie Gifford Investment Trust Share Plan and Investment Trust ISA and is wholly owned by Baillie Gifford & Co, which is the manager and secretary of the Scottish American Investment Company P.L.C. Your personal data is held and used by BGSM in accordance with data protection legislation. We may use your information to send you information about Baillie Gifford products, funds or special offers and to contact you for business research purposes. We will only disclose your information to other companies within the Baillie Gifford group and to agents appointed by us for these purposes. You can withdraw your consent to receiving further marketing communications from us and to being contacted for business research purposes at any time. You also have the right to review and amend your data at any time. 20 opinions prospect october 2012

is in truth not for glory nor riches nor honours It might crumble further, if the one per cent that we are fighting, but for freedom—as long of income taxpayers who account for 28 per as it doesn’t cost more than £500 apiece.” cent of income tax revenue decide to retire. Of course, freedom looks less attractive Instead, whether Scotland remains in or when there is no need to fight off an inva- out of the United Kingdom, the revolution sion by Edward II to secure many of its ben- in public provision of the next 20 years will efits. Indeed, theS cottish government offers transform its economy, just as it will trans- Frances Cairncross goodies unavailable south of the border. form other parts of the country that depend Scots have universal free nursing and per- heavily on public money and jobs. For the sonal care, and free university tuition; there time being, the threat of leaving the Union Tartan timidity is talk of free universal child care and better has helped to stave off some of the pain of Scots should embrace state pensions. Yet council tax is frozen and cuts, as with the hit to army numbers. But other taxes are no higher than in the south. that can’t last. When state spending has to independence, even at a price Public spending per head in Scotland was be cut, year in, year out, Scotland will suffer 14 per cent higher than in Britain as a whole more than the south. Grousing about deci- The cleverest politician in the British Isles, in 2010-11, and the public sector provides a sions taken in Whitehall will be easier than Alex Salmond, has played an unpromis- quarter of Scottish jobs, compared with a taking responsibility for what has to be done. ing hand with extraordinary skill. The Scot- fifth in the country at large. But it is not good for Scots to grouse about tish Nationalists, whose party conference No wonder, then, that Scots feel ambiva- the colonial power down south rather than to takes place this month in Perth, remain lent about their government’s pledge to cut decide for themselves what to amputate and overwhelmingly his country’s most popular ties with the southerners who finance this how to pay for what they want to keep. Two party. But putting the case for independence conjuring trick. In July, before the glow of years ago, a brave and thoughtful independ- has grown harder, at a time when it should the Olympics altered the mood, 30 per cent ent budget review, undertaken by Sir Craw- have become easier. Hence the current stand- of Scots told YouGov, the polling agency, that ford Beveridge, set out the uncomfortable off between the Nats and Westminster about Scotland should be an independent country; priorities on the spending front. The prin- whether to offer the punters independ- 28 per cent liked the status quo; and 29 per ciple of universality was “no longer afford- ence tout court or to add a second less scary cent were in favour of more devolution, a able”; public sector employment had to option, of a bit more devolution, for those of strategy whose lack of detail is hidden under contract; the council tax freeze had to end; a a nervous disposition. Michael Moore, the the cartoon-character title of Devo Max. No concerted effort was needed to identify sav- Scottish secretary, has said firmly, T“ here is “Whae Hae” there. ings in public spending at every level. None no second question to ask.” As the promised referendum approaches, of this has happened. This cooling has occurred not just because Scots will have to get off the fence.T he deci- To preserve these services unscathed, the the Olympic Games have left Scots feeling sion will by then have become even harder, only option would be more tax—much more warmer about the Union Jack. They have also for Britain as a whole is only at the start of tax—and oil alone would not provide it. Yet, begun to think a bit more about the economic a long slog to reduce public spending. For when the Scots had the power to vary income risks of independence. A survey at the end of over a generation, under Tories, Labour and tax by three per cent up or down, the “tartan last year found that only 21 per cent of Scots now the coalition, Britain’s tax take has not tax” was never used, and now that power has would vote for independence if it left them budged much above 38 per cent of GDP. lapsed. Economic sovereignty, when offered, worse off by £500 or more. To rewrite the And there is no reason to expect that share to suddenly seemed unappealing. splendid Declaration of Arbroath of 1320: “It rise—not even with Nick Clegg’s wealth tax. Of course, there is an alternative: to A reminder that starting from October 2012, all employers must enrol eligible workers into a qualifying workplace pension scheme. The date you have to do this by depends on the size of your company, but to give yourself time to prepare, visit The Pensions Regulator at www.tpr.gov.uk/actnow where you’ll find out all you need to know. Workplace pensions. We’re all in.

DWPNationalPage(275x210)P.indd 1 13/09/2012 08:50 22 opinions prospect october 2012 Im ag e s t ion A sso c ia in Maung Win/ A P/P re ss Maung Kh in © Burmese punks gather to celebrate on the eve of Thingyan, a four-day water festival ushering in Myanmar’s New Year, April 2012

become a tartan tax haven. The Scots long to PUNK: An Aesthetic is a new book co- copy Ireland’s low rate of corporation tax, to edited by punk lifer, Jon Savage and archi- woo companies north. The EU may well for- vist and curator Johann Kugelberg. The bid that. And then there are the rich: if they book contains essays by William Gibson, pay vastly more tax per head than the mid- the science fiction maven and cyber-punk dling sort, it might make sense to woo them. populariser and artists Gee Vaucher, of An independent Scotland would be off to a Crass, and Linder Sterling. Anyone alert good start. Not only is Britain’s second-larg- to music at the time will remember Ster- est wealth management cluster based in and Vivien Goldman ling’s cover design for the Buzzcocks sin- around Edinburgh’s Charlotte Square, the gle “Orgasm Addict” a collage of an iron Scottish capital also educates a higher pro- Punk’s not dead superimposed onto the head of a nude portion of children in independent schools female torso, red lips in place of nipples. than any other city in the United Kingdom. A wave of nostalgia shows the It’s largely through such visual material Oddly, the egalitarian Scots have never trum- meaning behind the moaning that the book sets out the story of punk. peted either as national advantages. Drawing on the collections of 36 punk afi- An independent Scotland might not be In all these years, why has no movement cionados, it presents an exhaustive and able to offer a £500 bonus to all its citizens. It superseded punk for pure outrage? Dec- intimate survey. might have to contemplate some of the ugly ades after the Sex Pistols appalled and Such a heavyweight, glossy book might compromises of sovereignty: a tax strategy thrilled, we continue to crave punk’s feisty, seem at odds with the images of the flimsy to attract England’s disaffected plutocrats, DIY spirit. As curators everywhere scrabble DIY fanzines and flyers found within it.B ut perhaps, or a group of universities allowed to for tatty flyers and ’zines that most punks’ that is the point. Impudent young punk has charge whatever fees they wanted. It would be mums chucked years ago, a new book grown venerable. Once rough, the pages it far better for Scots to take their own decisions comes stomping like Godzilla into the busy reproduces are now gloriously smooth and on how to cut public spending and raise taxes new world of punk studies. It’s a big one, shiny. Mocked at the time, the punk aes- than to see their country as a client state of complete with its own exhibition, the Hay- thetic is everywhere today. England. A few more tea-towels emblazoned ward Gallery’s current overview of punk Not only ex-punks will want this mon- with the Declaration of Arbroath might give graphic design, “Someday all the adults ster tome. To youth like my students, them the courage to agree. will die!”, and coincides with other offer- who’ve grown up knowing music as some- Frances Cairncross is rector of Exeter College, ings like Toby Mott’s limited edition book, thing they pull from the air in digital down- Oxford, and former management editor of The 100 Fanzines/10 Years of British Punk, 1976- loads, the making of indie punk seven-inch Economist 1985, published last year. records is as alien an exercise as shoeing Ancient Modern EGYPT & ARABIA

DUBAI • OMAN • SHARM EL-SHEIKH • SUEZ CANAL • JORDAN • ALEXANDRIA

An unforgettable cruise holiday – from just £2,049pp

Plus, FREE £200 On Board Spend per cabin To/from Southampton, via Gibraltar Rising from the desert, magnifi cent every evening, a fi tness centre and spa, Dubai is breathtaking to witness. And Jacuzzis and pools, a library, lectures and there’s no better way to get a taste of the talks. However you enjoy this historic Alexandria city’s extravagant lifestyle – along with adventure, with Balmoral as your Suez Canal Aqaba so many other fascinating destinations home-from-home and our long-serving Safaga Dubai – than with like-minded guests on a experienced staff looking after you, you’ll Sharm Muscat Fred. Olsen cruise. Sailing the Red Sea be travelling in true style and comfort. el-Sheikh will then take you to Alexandria, Egypt where history is everywhere to be seen. Great value prices Salalah There are guided Shore Tours to see the from just £2,049pp exceptional Pyramids of Giza, while lunch A Fred. Olsen cruise is always superb on the River Nile is also a tempting way value for your money with so much Departs 4th April 2013 to enjoy the destination. included in the price: comfortable 23 nights – Balmoral – L130151 en-suite cabin accommodation; leisure From London, returns Southampton Along the way there’s a Crusader fortress facilities; fi ne dining; fl ights & transfers; in Jordan, beautiful beaches in Sharm entertainment; and £200 FREE On Inside cabins – £2,049pp el-Sheikh, an ancient souk and Grand Board Spend per cabin too. Not only will Outside cabins – £2,354pp Mosque (one of the world’s largest) in you benefi t from great value, you will Balcony cabins – pp Muscat and Salalah has a magnifi cent never forget the fantastic experiences £3,484 Royal Palace to view. There’s lots to you’ll enjoy on this cruise, made all the Suites – £4,024pp be discovered ashore and you’ll fi nd more special in the warmer, friendlier Includes £200 On Board Spend per cabin Balmoral just as much to do on board: bars and atmosphere of . Hurry – best cabins selling fast lounges, live music and entertainment To book, contact your travel agent, call 0800 0355 132 or visit fredolsencruises.com Call weekdays 8-8, Sat 9-5 & Sun 10-4

Fares are per person, based on twin occupancy of the lead-in cabin of category, subject to availability. Offers may be withdrawn or amended at any time without prior notice, are subject to availability and cannot be applied retrospectively. On Board Spend is per cabin, non-refundable and non-transferable. Bookings are subject to Terms and Conditions as detailed in the Fred. Olsen Cruises Worldwide 2013/14 brochure. Cruise description includes optional Shore Tours and activities which are not included and are subject to charge and availability. Some ports may be at anchor, intermediate days are at sea. We reserve the right to amend itineraries for operational reasons. E&OE.

FOC54212_Advert _Prospect mag fv.indd 1 11/07/2012 17:29 24 opinions prospect october 2012 a horse. How they will wonder at the handy lished an op-ed piece on how not to get upset guide to “Making Your Own Record” from when foreigners comment on China in neg- a 1980 issue of Zigzag magazine. The indie ative ways. On my return my friend greeted mag shares its new business savvy with me warmly and looks forward to a long chat. innocent excitement. Angry, funnyor cyn- The younger generation of Chinese, from ical, the art and ephemera presented here the mid-twenties to mid-forties, on the whole in this book share an exuberant immediacy seem to approve. I have received personal that’s oh so punk. Mark Kitto messages that make the torment of writ- But where did punk come from? Sav- ing, and the doubts I have felt since, easier age and Kugelberg have dug up some juicy to bear. The one I shall frame came via a dis- roots. They begin with the transgressive Criticising China tinguished foreign correspondent who writes gender-bending of The Rocky Horror Picture The response to my farewell brilliantly and perceptively about China. It Show, the rock musical stageplay famously was sent to him by someone he describes as made into a film starring Tim Curry in For the August issue of Prospect I wrote an a one of the best young journalists in China: 1975. Hippy cartoons from the under- article entitled, “You’ll never be Chinese”. I “I have read an article written by a foreigner ground press mix with confrontational pre- expressed thoughts and ideas I have held for who had lived in China for 36 [sic] years and punk ranters, tawdry pulp paperbacks and some time, backed up by observations and now decided to leave China to UK. His obser- scandal sheets. There’s an American anti- personal experiences from 16 years in China. vation about China is very accurate, mean- Beatles leaflet, and preciously, a 1964S itu- It was not easy to write. Much of it was neg- while he is also very pessimistic about the ationist fanzine by Guy Debord. This is the ative. I was keenly aware that I might upset next ten years. After I read this, I just cannot cultural soup from which punk emerged. my friends and family in China. I had also restrain myself from crying. I think this arti- Curiosities from the movement’s hey- naively expected the words to come flooding cle will help you to understand China much day include flyers advertising gigs, like one out, rather like a sigh of relief. I found myself better.” promoting a night at CBGB, the legen- choking on them. It’s hard to say goodbye. Will there be longer term consequences dary New York club: the group Television The article is proving a challenge to live or repercussions? When I ran my maga- are pictured alongside the logo of the Sti- with as well. Thanks to it being freely avail- zines in China, I wrote a review of a book lettos (the band in which Blondie’s Debbie able online, the readership has been far about Xinjiang, the Muslim semi-auton- Harry and Chris Stein met). It conjures up greater than expected. It was published omous region in the country’s north west. a New York City nightlife scene long since as I left the UK, where I had been doing a Like Tibet, it is a sensitive subject, and my gentrified. recce for our move, and flew back to China. government publishing partners, the “con- Disclosure time. I know Mott. I also The first person to comment was at the tent inspectors,” refused to let me publish it. used to edit Savage’s work at Sounds, the baggage carousel in Pudong Airport. For Two years later those same partners seized punk-rock weekly. But then the First Wave approximately one week, I heard from for- control of my magazine business and drove scene was so small that punky pundits have eign friends and acquaintances in China. me out with less than no compensation. I always been within gobbing range. How- The consensus was: “Good points, we all rescued a small travel magazine and tried ever, this book’s lack of any straightforward agree, but we can’t say so because we have to start again, but I needed a new govern- historical context to clarify all the visuals interests to protect.” Those who had already ment partner. Everyone I approached was gives an unhelpful feeling of insularity. Its left China were less inhibited. I watched as told by a very senior government official cool, loose neutrality undermines the vol- the comments piled up on the Prospect web- that to co-operate with me would have dire ume’s attempts at tracing what John Lydon site. It was good to see old friends, and ene- consequences. (aka Johnny Rotten, lead singer of the mies, put in their five cents. It was more of a We are not leaving immediately. In fact Sex Pistols) called “The meaning behind challenge to spot the notorious “fifty cent” we do not have to be in the UK until the the moaning.” Thus, external factors gang, the commentators encouraged by the academic year of 2013 starts. And my wife that shaped punk—like the miners’ strike authorities to help with “soft power projec- intends to keep her small business going for or Reaganomics—and epochal break- tion.” They can be subtle. as long as possible on the mountain. I hope throughs like the arrival of the first gener- At the end of that week the article was that’ll be for years to come. We’d all like to ation of self-determined women musicians translated into Chinese and appeared on return here on a regular basis. But you never do not register verbally or visually. Kugel- various discussion boards and the Chinese know when “they” might use “something” berg stresses, “The history of the punk version of Twitter and Facebook, Weibo. It against you. aesthetic cannot be told, only shown.” Oh went from a readership of tens of thousands Mark Kitto runs a coffee shop near Shanghai. Last dear, better not tell that to my Punk Aes- to hundreds of them, potentially millions. month, he told Prospect why he’s leaving China thetics class! The effect was immediate. I happened to be The present wave of punk nostalgia is away from home travelling again. That was not simply a generation applauding its sur- fortuitous. vival while it still can. It tells us something My wife was called into the police station, vital about the future, our own present— not as we both feared, for a dressing down, and punk’s past. In the closing essay, Sav- but so the police chief could pass on, from the age notes, “Everybody thinks about punk in local, county, and provincial governments, terms of social realism of the present day, as all of which had called him in person, their if it’s all about dole queues and so forth. But concern that I might have felt hard done by. it was super futuristic.” This is true. Punk’s “Was everything all right?” he asked. gritty survivalism that has such relevance My wife also had to face her business now, always had an eye on tomorrow. No partner, who has become a close friend. He is wonder that as the Exploited sang, “Punk’s of the older generation, and did not like what not dead.” I had written. He took it personally. If I had Vivien Goldman is an adjunct professor at New been present I fear we would have argued, “Thank you for calling. Your call may be York University’s Tisch School of the Arts but while I was away the People’s Daily pub- used for training porpoises” 48$57(5/<0$*$=,1(‡,668(12‡$87801 &DXWLRQLQDFULVLV 52'1(<+2%621 /RQJWHUPDUJXPHQWV

IRURZQLQJPLQHVI (6)81' 7KHKLJK ELENA CLARIC 6&,3,210,1,1*$1'5(6285& 'RQ¶WJHWFDXJKWRXW

SULFHRI E\FXUUHQFLHV JOHN HARDY 6$;2%$1. VDIHW\ &RUSRUDWHERQGV JONATHAN RUFFER HGJLQJRXWHTXLWLHV" $1'<'$9,6 35263(&7

3XEOLVKHGE\

LQSDUWQHUVKLSZLWK /RQGRQ6WRFN([FKDQJH

/RQGRQ6WRFN([FKDQJHLQ )HDWXULQJDUWLFOHVIURPOHDGLQJ SDUWQHUVKLSZLWK3URVSHFWKDYH ¿QDQFLDOFRPPHQWDWRUVRQWKH FROODERUDWHGWREULQJ\RX3ULYDWH ODWHVWGHYHORSPHQWVWUHQGVDQG ,QYHVWRU±WKHQHZHPDJD]LQH FKDOOHQJHV3ULYDWH,QYHVWRULV GHOLYHULQJLQVLJKWLQWR¿QDQFLDO HVVHQWLDOUHDGLQJIRUWKRVHZKR PDUNHWV QHHGLQIRUPDWLRQRQ¿QDQFLDO PDUNHWVDQGWUDGLQJ

3XEOLVKHGE\ 3ULYDWH,QYHVWRULVDIUHHSXEOLFDWLRQ 7RYLHZWKHODWHVWLVVXHYLVLW ,QSDUWQHUVKLSZLWK ZZZORQGRQVWRFNH[FKDQJHFRPPDJD]LQH /RQGRQ6WRFN([FKDQJH 26 prospect october 2012 As good as it gets It’s become impossible to be a great president bronwen maddox © getty images getty © The president and secretary of state, who upstaged him on her recent far-eastern tour with her “assertive statesmanship”

sama bin Laden is dead all kinds of episodes from the first term to call for his narrow body, gesturing with fingers and General Motors is him a communist, while the claim that he is and thumb pinched together like someone alive.” You have to hand not actually an American citizen, once comic deconstructing a thesis, not exhorting a it to Joe Biden; the vice- for its stubbornness in denying documentary nation to summon yet more effort to over- president produced one evidence, now seems the settled view of a sig- come a shared ordeal. He has the intensity “Oof the White House’s best soundbites about nificant number of Republican voters. and the voice for big speeches, but not the Barack Obama’s first term as he kicked off What is new is the venom towards Obama, words (and his speechwriting team has hardly the reelection campaign early this year. But or at least, a kind of aggressive dismay, voiced helped him override his native caution). Bill that succinct tribute, and the longer tallies in publications whose editorials were raptur- Clinton easily outclassed Obama; big-shoul- of achievements that followed, have failed to ous at his election. David Brooks in the New dered, expansive, talking of hope, the former check the rising chorus of attacks from the York Times accused him of being merely reac- president reminded everyone of the best of president’s one-time supporters. Many who tive, and of failing to say what he would do the 1990s (while his silver hair, heart surgery voted Democrat in 2008 now accuse their with a second term. “The magic is gone,” pro- and enduring marriage seem to have caused former hero of diffidence and lack of vision. nounced Ross Douthat in the same pages, them all to forget Monica Lewinsky). Hillary Their wavering support—or even outright accusing the president of addressing the upstaged the president, too—from 7,000 miles opposition—is Obama’s greatest threat in Democrat convention with “a plodding, hec- away in China, bringing an assertive states- November. toring speech that tacitly acknowledged manship to her speeches as secretary of state It’s been a long four years, since those cry- that this White House is out of ideas, out of that has often eluded Obama. ing, cheering, disbelieving crowds greeted options and no longer the master of its fate.” But Obama’s achievements on the econ- Obama as the first black president of the The Washington Post rated Bill Clinton’s con- omy, security and healthcare are still great United States. America, like many other “rich” vention performance more highly. enough to make the criticism look like carp- nations, has struggled to shake off recession They have a point—certainly about the ing. He has driven these policies through a and hold its place in the world. Those who convention. Obama, on the stage, looked like Congress that is consumed by inter-party war- never liked Obama now hate him, invoking an academic, not a leader: suit too capacious fare, reflecting the deep split in the country Short Break Holidays for discerning travellers

Kirker Holidays provides carefully crafted tailor-made holidays to over 140 destinations in 40 countries - including 70 classic cities and over 250 relaxing rural locations throughout Europe, North Africa, Southern Africa and India. The Kirker Concierge will arrange opera and ballet tickets, pre-book museums, galleries and private guided tours, and reserve a table for a delicious dinner at a C E R N I N I S G

D T recommended restaurant. R R A

O V

F E

L

S Prices are per person and include flights (Eurostar for Paris), return transfers or car hire,

L

Y

E

A

R

D xpert advice accommodation with breakfast, Kirker Guide Notes to restaurants, museums and sightseeing

e S I

L since 1986

O and the services of the Kirker Concierge. H 1 2 1 9 8 6 - 2 0 Venice Tuscany Rome Ca’ Dei Conti Relais La Suvera - An historic private residence Capo d’Africa **** Superior **** Superior Located on a hillside 18 miles west of Siena and close to the towns of Located just five minutes’ walk Formerly a patrician palace, Volterra and San Gimignano, La Suvera is a beautiful relais dating back from the Colosseum, the Capo the Ca’ Dei Conti is a family- to the Middle Ages. It is decorated with an extraordinary collection d’Africa is in the heart of ancient run, boutique hotel with just of antiques including ancient Rome. All 65 bedrooms in this 35 rooms and a small terrace. manuscripts, tapestries and paintings restored 19th Century town house It overlooks a canal and is by Ingres. The heated swimming are furnished with great taste in five minutes’ walk from St. pool and tennis court are set in a comfortable, contemporary Mark’s Square. All bedrooms beautiful landscaped grounds style. The large rooftop terrace are decorated in classic 18th with statues, fountains and overlooks the historic 4th Century Century style. cypress trees. There are two SS. Quattro Coronati Church. 4 nights for the price of 3 all year restaurants and a health centre. 4 nights for the price of 3 - price from £698 to 4 Nov, £539 to 15 Nov - price from £728, 4 nights for the price of 3 saving £132 from 5 Nov, saving up to £126 from 1 Oct to 4 Nov - price Includes Doge’s Palace, Accademia from £798, saving £165 Includes entrance tickets to the or Guggenheim tickets and water Vatican Museum & Sistine Chapel taxi transfers. or Villa Borghese.

Seville Marrakech Paris - Canaletto and Guardi: the Two Masters of Venice Casa No.7 Riad El Cadi **** at Musée Jacquemart-André | 14 Sept 2012 -14 Jan 2013 - A boutique Located five minutes’ walk along narrow For the first time in France, the private hotel medina streets to the famous Djemaa opulent Jacquemart-André Museum El Fna Square, the El Cadi is one of the is now devoting an exhibition to Built in 1847 and owned the Veduta, a genre of painting by the charming Gonzalo finest traditional riads in Marrakech. The owner’s unique collection of antique epitomised by Canaletto and Guardi. del Rio (a member of The exhibition gives centre stage to the Gonzalez-Gordon textiles, furniture, ceramics and ancient Islamic treasures are on display throughout. Canaletto, showcasing more than 25 sherry family), Casa of his essential works - on loan from No.7 is a delightful The ground floor features a series of multiple prestigious museums and town house with just interconnecting courtyards and facilities collections. To celebrate we are offering six beautifully furnished include a small swimming pool, a hamam special short breaks to Paris with and an extensive rooftop terrace. bedrooms, and a fine guaranteed entrance tickets. Canaletto, St. Mark’s Square collection of antiques 4 nights for the © Museo Thyssen-Bornemisza, Madrid and works of art. This price of 3 to Victor Hugo *** 31 January A very good quality, well maintained, family-run hotel located some 10 is a real Spanish home minutes’ walk from the Arc de Triomphe. located in the heart of (excl. 21 Dec the old town. to 6 Jan) 4 nights for the price of 3 for stays including a Sunday night - price from - price from £539, saving £79 4 nights for the price of 3 £698, Please ask for details of our portfolio of recommended 4* & 5* hotels. all year (excl. Fri & Sat saving £98. night stays) - price from Includes exhibition tickets (until 14 Jan), 48 hour museum pass - including entrance £598, saving £113 Includes a private guided walking tour. to the Musee d’Orsay & the Louvre, plus Seine cruise & Metro tickets.

Speak to an expert or request a brochure:

020 7593 2283 quote code XPR www.kirkerholidays.com 28 as good as it gets prospect october 2012 between Republican red and Democrat blue. moil that would follow—a clear difference charge that he is vacuous in supporting unity The question of whether America has become from Republican candidate Mitt Romney. for its own sake is too harsh. In a divided coun- ungovernable—whether its political system Agreed, he has plenty of “flaws,” as the try, that language is indispensable. can actually deliver an answer to its debt and ponderous language of Washington analysis And he faces tougher obstacles than did other threats to its prosperity and sense of puts it. The best charge against him is that he George W Bush or Bill Clinton. Most of his unity—is taking on real force. has nothing to say on the deficit, the issue that achievements came in the first two years, So if people say they’re now disappointed, dominates all others. It’s Medicare, the health- when he secured the economic stimulus, it’s fair to ask—what did they expect? Obama care scheme for the elderly, that is the most health insurance, and reform of Wall Street. has taken to protesting that he was “never damaging to the US’s future finances, even Since the 2010 mid-term elections, when the going to be the perfect president,” an embar- more than pensions. Here, Paul Ryan, Rom- Republicans gained control of the House rassingly plaintive lament, but a fair one. ney’s running mate, has a clear answer, but his of Representatives, the new Congress has Obama’s best days were the first ones— prescription of cuts is so politically toxic that passed less legislation than any since 1947. even before the inauguration in January it rattles even Republican strategists. Obama’s Of course, there is the old argument that 2009. Shortly after his election, he called the best retort is that his healthcare reforms have the famous checks and balances on power set emergency meetings that laid the ground for laid the ground for further ones. out by the Constitution are designed to pro- his greatest achievements: pushing the Bush His foreign policy has been undeniably duce an outcome that, to European eyes, can administration to double the bank bailout to fitful. He followed his famous Cairo speech be mistaken for gridlock. But it’s new that the $700bn, and injecting $787bn into the econ- which set out to mend relations with the Arab red and blue camps are almost equally strong, omy. Those go a long way to explain why the world—an ambitious and important aim— and that the rift is so bitter, with many mem- US is faring better now than even the strong- with a pledge to be tough on Israel over illegal bers of the House of Representatives appar- est parts of Europe. building in the West Bank and East Jerusa- ently uninterested in compromise. In his first His healthcare reforms were the target lem which he could not uphold. The Arab two years, Obama tried to work with Republi- of political warfare that went all the way to Spring then produced confusion in Wash- can leaders; he has largely given up, and now the Supreme Court. But his achievement ington, the administration confronted with passes what he can by executive order. was to break a second taboo: that any presi- the old contradiction that America’s main Above all, it’s wrong to make light of his dent who pursued healthcare reform would allies in the region are the least democratic. achievement in breaking the racial barrier. be mortally wounded. Analysts are still argu- Europe’s turmoil yielded an exasperated yelp Until it happened, it seemed impossible. ing over whether his legislation raised costs from his team to those governments of “sort In the days after the 2008 election, Lynette or cut them but it did remove America’s great it out fast”—but only belatedly an acknowl- Clemetson, managing editor of The Root, a disgrace: that the world’s richest country left edgement of the cash—and US role in nego- black-focused website, said she couldn’t see 32m of its people without proper access to tiations—it would take to do this. a picture of Michelle Obama and her daugh- medical care. But on China, he has restrained Congress ters without thinking: “Those three black Obama has, too, got US troops out of from a trade war. Hillary Clinton has also women will be living in the White House and Iraq, a bitterly unpopular war. In directing helped him there with her tough judicious- they won’t be cooking there, and they won’t be the assassination of bin Laden he has paved ness (as she has done in the Arab world). cleaning there. They will be living there.” the way for an exit from Afghanistan (Brit- Yes, the gibes at his personal style strike So, sure, concede Obama his embarrass- ain’s, too). He did, indeed, kill bin Laden and home. As one longtime senior Democratic ingly plaintive request and acknowledge other terrorists with drone flights and mili- adviser says, Obama is not good at walking that he is not perfect. But he is still the most tary incursions into Pakistan, shooting holes up to a senator or member of the House and thoughtful, disciplined, committed presi- in his claim to be a champion of international putting his arm around their shoulder “but dent that America has produced for years. justice (nor has he closed the Guantánamo he’s going to have to do more of what is hard For a country whose rifts are deeper than for prison, one of his most forthright pledges on for him” if elected again. The accusation that decades, grappling with debt that threatens taking office). But on Iran, he seems properly he is a conciliator, seeking the compromise a future of decline, governed by an inspired reluctant to mount airstrikes on its disputed between conflicting positions rather than flu- Constitution conceived in an utterly different nuclear programme, acknowledging the tur- ently arguing for his own, rings true. But the time, this is as good as it gets.

The end of Osama bin Laden: President Obama’s pursuit of the al-Qaeda leader, even if controversial, has made an Afghan exit possible CAN BRITAIN TURN THINGS AROUND?

Britannia Unchained: Global Lessons for Growth and Prosperity Kwasi Kwarteng; Priti Patel; Dominic Raab; Chris Skidmore; Elizabeth Truss

Britannia Unchained ‘prescribes shock therapy for the country - Financial Times

9781137032232 | September 2012 | Paperback | £12.99 ’

Available from all good online and high street bookstores 30 prospect october 2012 Features Osborne’s woes 30 Can Mario Monti save Italy? 38 Iran’s Aids paradox 44 Is satnav the end of the London cabbie? 50 Wonga vs the banks 52 Day in the life of a dictionary 58 The unfortunate Mr Osborne David Cameron should override his chancellor—and the coalition gavyn davies

hen my family went to the Olympic Sta- period, 2015/16. And it would bring the public sector debt down dium, we said to our 14 year old, a fan of the thereafter. Around 80 per cent of this budgetary adjustment Romans, that it must have been just like this would come from spending cuts, not through higher taxation. in the Colosseum. No, he replied sagely, we The new chancellor chose to describe these objectives in the would not see anyone thrown to the lions. most rigid manner possible, in order to reduce the risk that the WGeorge Osborne must have been grateful for that when the Para- bond markets might panic about Britain’s budgetary position. lympic crowd spontaneously started booing him a few days later. At the time, that risk did not seem far fetched. Furthermore, The crowd’s reaction summed up the sense of frustration Osborne was trying to summon what Paul Krugman, the Nobel and impatience which seems to be rife in the British economy laureate and Princeton professor, calls the “confidence fairy,” a at present. The unfortunate Mr Osborne, who has scarcely been mythical creature representing the hope that a restoration of con- around long enough to deserve all of the blame, seems to be a fidence in the budget would raise economic confidence more gen- man in the wrong place at the wrong time. David Cameron, gen- erally. That turned out to be, well, just a fairy tale. erously or not, sees advantage in keeping him there. How can he Unexpectedly, at around the time of the last election the econ- dig himself out of this hole? omy stopped growing. Although the official Office for National According to Denis Healey, the Labour chancellor in the late Statistics data for GDP usually prove to be far too pessimistic, 1970s, the first law of holes states: when in one, stop digging. this prolonged stagnation is not just an artefact of the number Osborne is not doing that, or is certainly trying hard to give that crunchers. Broadly speaking, real GDP is still about 4 per cent impression. Plan A was his idea, and it seemed like a very good below the level attained when the last economic cycle peaked in one at the time. He is sticking to it. His intellectual ally, Mervyn 2008, which is one of the worst performances in the G20. More King, governor of the Bank of England, continues to play his amazingly, real GDP is about 15 per cent below the levels it would required role with determination. Nick Clegg, though lost in the have reached if it had maintained its long term growth trend after economic maze, cannot find an exit. We are going to fix the econ- 2008. The loss of 15 per cent of national output each year seems, omy, says the coalition, even if it is the last thing we do. to many, more than a little careless. The problem is that the economy is not behaving as was pre- Because of this, the Treasury is naturally missing its budget dicted when Plan A was launched. targets. In a recent critical assessment, the Centre for Policy Osborne’s key judgement was that he could reduce overall Studies, the centre-right think tank, pointed out that the small debt by around 6 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in print of the fiscal component of Plan A would almost certainly the course of the parliament, while relying on aggressively easy need to be given a decent burial in the Autumn statement this monetary policy­—in this case, printing money—to ensure that year. Not only have the original targets for the budget deficit and GDP growth would remain slightly above its long-term trend. debt both been missed, it claims, but the ratio of spending cuts That would eliminate the budget deficit (or more accurately the to tax increases has been almost the opposite of what the Treas- structural current budget balance) by the last year of the forecast ury initially promised (that 80 per cent of government savings would come from cuts and just 20 per cent from tax rises) when Gavyn Davies, former chief economist at Goldman Sachs and chairman of the plan was unveiled by Osborne back in 2010. The Tory right, the BBC, is an investor and author of an FT blog on macroeconomics led by David Davis, is incensed and is demanding much larger George Osborne: “Plan A was his idea, and it seemed like a very good one at the time” prospect october 2012 october prospect the unfortunate mr osborne mr unfortunate the 31

© reuters 32 the unfortunate mr osborne prospect october 2012

City storm: it is “difficult to believe” that the financial crash can account for the 15 per cent of missing national output cuts in both tax rates and in public spending. happened if government budgets had not been tightened at all Osborne is not likely to be stumped by this. He will use the get- until 2014, and then tightened in the assumed better economic out clauses which were deliberately built into the original plan to environment of 2015-20. The simulations indicate that real GDP argue that this is no more than a mid-course adjustment. Stretch- would have been 3 per cent higher in 2014 than it will be under ing the credulity of some, he will argue that the specific wording present policy, while the unemployment rate would be 2 percent- of his original mandate required nothing more than structural age points lower. budget balance in “the final year of the forecast period,” which That proves it, said the Keynesians. Not so fast, said the Treas- by definition rolls forward each year. Essentially, the Treasury ury’s supporters. If not done now, the budget consolidation would will simply extend the plan another year or two into the future, simply have to come later, and that would more than completely without being very specific about where the expenditure cuts will wipe out any putative output gains by 2019. And in the meantime, eventually be found. Because the chancellor chose to emphasise the public debt ratio would be raised by a further 10 percentage the rigidity of the plan when it was first announced, he will take points of GDP, which makes the whole problem worse in the long on some collateral political damage from this. But it is unlikely run, even assuming that the markets do not panic in the mean- to be fatal. time. Misquoting Macbeth: if ’twere done, ’twere best done soon. Osborne’s critics claim that the last two years could have been But if an alternative policy is needed, the first question to ask is much, much better if only government budgets had not been whether the economy is suffering from a shortage of demand, or tightened so rapidly. When it lost the last election, Labour was a collapse in supply capacity. With output now 15 per cent below committed to a plan which was similar in shape to Osborne’s but its long-term trend, you might expect that economists can explain which involved only about half of the fiscal tightening in the first whether this massive loss is due to supply or demand factors, since few years. We will never know what would have happened if gov- the remedies would be entirely different. You would be wrong. ernment policy had followed the Labour path. The budget deficit In a masterpiece of understatement, Joe Grice (the excellent may hardly have fallen at all, which could possibly have panicked chief economist at the ONS) wrote in August that “Recent move- the markets, though the global bond markets have been remark- ments in the UK economy have not been entirely straightfor- ably tolerant of high budget deficits in countries which (unlike ward to interpret.” He can say that again. In particular, there is Spain and Italy) have their own central banks. The bond market great uncertainty about the output gap in the economy, a concept vigilantes who terrorised Bill Clinton and Robert Rubin 20 years which lies right at the heart of both fiscal and monetary policy. ago have been asleep at the switch. The output gap is the estimated difference between the poten- Economists at the National Institute of Economic and Social tial GDP of the economy and the actual level of GDP. When an Research and the London School of Economics recently pub- economy is operating below its potential capacity, inflation is lished econometric simulations sketching out what might have believed likely to fall, and the Bank of England can safely boost prospect october 2012 the unfortunate mr osborne 33 demand by reducing interest rates or, if these are already at zero, ering how badly output has performed. But it also explains why by a round of quantitative easing. Furthermore, if output is below productivity has performed so poorly. trend, nevertheless part of the budget deficit will be eliminated Economists opposed to this Keynesian analysis contest the automatically as the economy recovers, reducing the need for tax interpretation of the slump in productivity. In their view, the increases or expenditure cuts. All in all, let’s hear it for the output damage to the banking sector has had pervasive effects right gap, because it makes future macroeconomic policy a whole lot across the economy. A healthy financial services sector is needed easier on many fronts. to intermediate between savers and borrowers in the economy. If Except that we have absolutely no idea how big it is. banks and other sources of company finance become clogged up, If there are two institutions who would choose “the output gap, then savings will not be channelled to their most effective uses, 2008-16” as their special subject on “Mastermind,” they should and the growth of productive capacity will be damaged. be the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibil- So who is right? The International Monetary Fund and the ity, which provides independent analysis of government spending. Organisation or Economic Cooperation and Development have Neither of them should exist without trying to measure it. And, both published studies which show that in past examples of finan- remarkably, they both seem to agree that it is currently around 3 cial sector crashes, it has been common for real GDP to fall by per cent of GDP, implying that GDP can only rise by that amount about 4 per cent on a semi-permanent basis. But even if we allow before the economy begins to run into supply constraints. (The for a much bigger effect in this particular case—because the crash Bank does not publish official estimates, but does drop broad has been so severe, and because the financial sector is so large in hints from time to time.) the UK economy—it is difficult to believe that this can account for Consider the implication of that for a moment. After dropping the full 15 per cent of missing output. 15 per cent below its previous trend, GDP can only rebound by 3 Furthermore, the drop in productivity has been similar in all per cent before bumping into the ceiling. If true, that would be an sectors of the economy, rather than in those sectors which are extraordinarily pessimistic analysis. particularly exposed to financial services and housing. This pessimism is based on a number of arguments. Output The ultimate referee in this contest should probably be the may have been well above trend in 2007, so that previous peak may rate of inflation. It has indeed risen, which supports the pessimis- not be re-attainable. Inflation has been stubbornly high, despite tic supply siders. But most of the rise can easily be explained by the recession, indicating that there is not much slack in the sys- the jump in oil and other commodity prices, and in indirect taxes tem. Productivity, or output per man hour, has been extremely like VAT. Remove those two factors, say Martin and Rowthorn, poor for several years, indicating that the financial crash has evis- and you eliminate the entire rise in inflation. And that means cerated parts of our productive sector, like financial services and that the domestic economy has not been under the kind of strain housing. These will never return to their former “glories.” which the supply siders imply. All of which would mean that very little can be done to boost William White, who predicted many aspects of the global the economy through boosting the money supply. It would also crash when he was at the Bank for International Settlements, mean that most of the correction needed in the budget deficit recently wrote: “We do not live in an either-or world.” He was will have to come, sooner or later, through extremely painful cuts arguing that both supply and demand side problems could co- in public spending or increases in tax rates. If you thought the exist in the same economy at the same time, and indeed that was last few years were difficult, the implication is that you ain’t seen a common condition in the aftermath of a financial bubble. nothin’ yet. Macro-economists are particularly bad at accepting this. The Fortunately, there is another, much more hopeful, point of profession is divided into two silos: the Keynesians, who believe in view about how swiftly the output gap might be closed.T his view the primacy of the demand side; and the Chicago school, which is held by many conventional Keynesians, and also by Bill Mar- believes it to be irrelevant. These two camps are now so antago- tin and Robert Rowthorn at the Centre for Business Research at nistic that they are barely ever seen in the same seminar rooms. Cambridge University. Their work is not part of the consensus Political opinion tends to be divided along similar lines, especially view, but is very impressive. They believe that the output gap may in the United States. not be as large as the entire 15 per cent difference between GDP and its previous trend, but that it still exceeds 9 per cent of GDP. one of this makes any sense. Indeed, it serves the If that is right, then the budget deficit will automatically drop economy ill. There are many policy weapons avail- by a huge 6 per cent of GDP as the economy recovers, leaving able which can help demand and supply simulta- much less to be corrected by painful policy adjustments. The neously, and they should be the weapons of choice. OBR’s equivalent estimate of the cyclical element of the budget NThey are available both in the monetary and the fiscal sphere, deficit is only 2 per cent of GDP, which is why the Treasury has and they would probably be welcomed in the financial markets been forced to announce such a large policy tightening. if deployed intelligently. What are the Cambridge authors seeing which others are not? In the monetary realm, the Bank of England has been the Almost the entire dispute boils down to the behaviour of produc- most enthusiastic proponent of quantitative easing (QE) tivity in recent years. Martin and Rowthorn contend that the col- among the major economies, out-gunning even the US’s Fed- lapse in productivity growth has been triggered by a slump in eral Reserve in this aspect of policy, and the results have been demand, which has been accompanied by “hoarding” of labour generally good. Immediately following the collapse of Lehman by firms. Faced with the urgent need to pay down debt, workers Brothers in 2008, the first dose of QE provided liquidity for the have been willing to accept jobs at very low real wages, and this financial system at a time when the liquidity preference of the has encouraged firms to keep on workers who might otherwise banking sector had risen in an unprecedented fashion. This have been fired.T his explains the one bright spot of the past few injection of liquidity directly avoided the cardinal mistakes of years, which is the relatively small rise in unemployment, consid- the monetary authorities in the early 1930s, and thus avoided 34 the unfortunate mr osborne prospect october 2012 a repeat of the Great Depression. Since then, the impact of QE has been mainly to bring down long term interest rates, and the scale of the beneficial impact on the economy has been much less. With yields on ten-year UK government bonds now so low, large scale purchases of these bonds, which remain the Bank’s method of choice, can be expected to have even smaller effects (though they may help to keep sterling down, which remains critical to the whole strategy). Mervyn King is resistant to any more adventurous monetary measures, unless the Treasury is willing to offer guarantees to the Bank which would protect it against the risk of subsequent losses. He rightly wants to avoid blurring the lines between the “The bond market vigilantes who terrorised Bill Clinton and Robert Rubin 20 years ago have been asleep” government and central bank balance sheets, which ultimately would bring inflation risks. This is why the new Funding for Lending Scheme, which aims to encourage banks to make more money available to borrowers, is a joint Treasury/Bank initia- tive, as it should be. Before he left the MonetaryP olicy Committee, Adam Posen suggested that the Bank should sponsor and finance a new institution which would be responsible for lending directly to small and medium-sized enterprises, which are clearly starved of funding. Such an institution could also be responsi- ble for directly funding larger scale investment projects in both the public and private sectors, including infrastructure and machinery and equipment. Projects which would qualify for this funding would need to be proven to be additional to existing levels of investment, and My own view is that a temporary stimulus which was aimed not in the property sector, and lending would be at preferred clearly at the supply side of the economy, and which did nothing rates. The new institution would initially be capitalised by the to relax the medium-term framework for borrowing and debt, Treasury, but it would be given a banking licence, so it would be would be readily accepted by the markets. Marginal tax rates on able to use its loan portfolios as security for borrowing from the business and enterprise could be reduced for a period, and busi- Bank of England. Any losses suffered by the Bank in funding nesses could be offered a tax holiday on the creation of new jobs. these operations would be guaranteed by the Treasury. That would represent a powerful pro-growth signal from the The last question is whether the chancellor should go further government to the economy at a time when it is most needed. than simply using the flexibility which was built into his plans, For this to happen, two important shibboleths would need to and, in the next couple of years, spend more money. There are be abandoned by the coalition. Osborne would need to admit some limited signs of this happening, with the recent proposals that he is relaxing his short-term fiscal objectives for the over- for a boost to housing and other public investment worth about riding purpose of boosting growth. And the Liberal Democrats 1 per cent of GDP over a period which has not yet been specified. would have to accept that their general approach to taxation is Whether this would be funded from extra government borrow- the enemy of enterprise. ing, or from the Liberal Democrats’ ultimately very costly idea There is only one person who has the necessary clout to get for a wealth tax, is also unknown. this done. That person is David Cameron.

Online: “osborne’s catch 22” www.prospectmagazine.co.uk by Ian Mulheirn, director of the Social Market Foundation Osborne has four options, but three of The Social Market Foundation won Prospect’s UK them are politically lethal. There’s only Think Tank of the Year 2012 award in July, partly one realistic way out—he will have to for Ian Mulheirn’s report, “Osborne’s Choice.” make some of his own voters squeal. www.smf.co.uk prospect october 2012 the unfortunate mr osborne 35 © reuters © The mood darkens But poor ratings for the government are not yet disastrous peter kellner

fter two years in which millions of voters gave the for the government. government the benefit of the doubt, opinion is now However, in the past six months the numbers have slipped hardening against George Osborne’s economic pol- further. In early September they reached their lowest yet, with icies. This can be seen from YouGov tracking data, 29 per cent saying good and 53 per cent bad. The Conservatives’ andA a new survey conducted exclusively for Prospect. hopes of winning the next election outright depend on turning There have been three stages to the evolution of the public these numbers round. mood. At first, ministers could deliver a simple message. Labour To delve behind this observation, this month’s YouGov/Pros- had screwed up. We, the coalition, have to take painful deci- pect survey has explored attitudes to the economy. First we sions, but they are not our fault. Britain will emerge stronger asked whether government policies on taxes and public spend- than before. ing have been good or bad, first forB ritain as a whole, and sec- After a few months, when that enthusiasm had worn off, the ond for themselves and their families. coalition entered stage two, which lasted for well over a year, There is a marked difference—30 per cent say the policies until this spring’s Budget. The figures settled down, with around have been good for Britain, but only 11 per cent think they and 35 per cent thinking their policies were good for the economy, their families have benefited.T he difference in the “bad” figures and around 47 per cent saying bad. These were tolerable results is much smaller: Britain, 44 per cent; own family, 51 per cent. Rather, a sizeable minority (28 per cent) say the measures have Peter Kellner is president of YouGov not made much difference to them. This means that almost 36 the unfortunate mr osborne prospect october 2012

The economy Thinking about the way the Have the government's measures For Britain as a For you and Which of these views comes nearer government is cutting spending to to reduce borrowing and whole? your family? your own? % reduce the government’s deficit, is strengthen Britain’s economy 51 There are deep-seated problems it good or bad for the economy? been good or bad. % 44 with government finances that have 30 Good Bad Don’t know % Good Bad 28 to be tackled. The medicine may be unpleasant, but we have to take it for 29 15 11 11 2012 Sep 53 10 Britain’s economy to grow stronger in 12 Don't know the long-term. This is the wrong time 32 Jul 51 to change course 16 34 In what ways have government measures been bad for you and your Apr 50 family? (of those saying measures have been bad for their family) % Not sure 17 36 15 37 Higher VAT makes it Low interest has been Other tax changes have Jan 45 18 hard to make ends meet bad for my/our savings cut my living standards 35 2011 Oct 47 56 50 47 49 18 35 I or a family member I/we have had our I/we have been unable Jul 48 17 have lost a job pay frozen or cut to sell my/our home The medicine isn’t working. The 35 17 9 Government is making things worse Apr 50 44 15 by raising taxes and cutting spending 38 I or a family member Government measures too far, too fast. The time has come to Jan 47 have been forced to that I/we use have been have been bad in some 16 change course. In the short term, 50 work fewer hours closed down or cut back other way(s) boosting the economy matters more 2010 Oct 36 14 14 33 29 than reducing borrowing

40 per cent say they have not (yet) been adversely affected by 49 per cent agreed. Not sure: 15 per cent. the tax increases and spending cuts—good news for the govern- These are poor figures for the government, but not disas- ment. The trouble for George Osborne is that if this 40 per cent trous. As might be expected, most Tory voters support the first starts to contract, his party could be in deeper trouble. option, most Labour voters, the second. Liberal Democrats (like But what about that half of the nation that says it has suf- their MPs as a whole) are evenly divided. fered? In what ways? We listed some of their possible grumbles One noteworthy group consists of those who think the gov- and asked them to tick all that applied. Top, named by 56 per ernment’s policies are good for Britain but bad for them and cent of the sufferers, is higher VAT. Next, on 50 per cent, comes their families. They consist of 9 per cent of Britain’s adults— “the very low interest rates that have been bad for my/our sav- around 4m people. Two-thirds of them are Tories and they tend ings/pension.” Among the over-60s, this comes top, ticked by to be retired or close to retirement. Three-quarters of them 69 per cent. This shows that low interest rates have a mixed think ministers should stick with Plan A. They are prepared to impact—good for mortgage-payers and those businesses that pay a personal price to help Britain pull through. David Cam- are able to borrow the money they need to expand, but bad for eron must hope that they continue to do so. If they come to the anyone whose savings exceed their debts. conclusion that their pain will not result in national gain, then Perhaps the most striking finding is that only 33 per cent of the Tories really will be sunk. sufferers (and therefore 17 per cent of the public) say they have been hit by “specific public services that I/we use [that] have been closed down or cut back.” Government critics say that only one-fifth of planned cuts have fed through to front-line serv- ice cuts: four-fifths have yet to come. If this, or anything like it, turns out to be true, then the numbers complaining about gov- ernment policies will grow. But if ministers obey David Cam- eron’s early injunction to maintain frontline services and seek cuts elsewhere, then public sector provision may be the dog that doesn’t bark at the next election. Finally, we asked people whether they wanted ministers to stick with Plan A, or switch to the kind of Plan B that Labour proposes. Actually, we did not mention either plans or par- ties; rather, we asked people to choose between two broad statements: “There are deep-seated problems with government finances that have to be tackled. The medicine may be unpleasant, but we have to take it for Britain’s economy to grow stronger in the long-term. This is the wrong time to change course”: 36 per cent agreed. “The medicine isn’t working. The government is making things worse by raising taxes and cutting spending too far, too fast. The time has come to change course. In the short term, boosting the economy matters more than reducing borrowing”: “Pick a plan! Any plan!” It’s arrived… The App Read Prospect anywhere, anytime The latest issue instantly in your hands Buy this month’s issue, back issues or an annual subscription

If you already subscribe to Prospect magazine you can enjoy the latest issues in the app absolutely FREE for the launch period. To extend your subscription to the app go to www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/apps If you don’t yet subscribe to Prospect you can buy single issues, a subscription or back issues. To download the app visit the Appstore or Android Store and search for “Prospect Magazine”, or scan one of the codes (below) with your QR reader.

Applestore Android Store

L3DGB$'B3DJHLQGG  38 prospect october 2012 Saving Italy Can Mario Monti do it? bill emmott

t is a strange but compelling political, economic and even moral drama. Strange, because the main protago- nists are not conventional politicians: they are a professor, a hairy comedian and a joke-telling billionaire. Compel- ling, because the country is Italy, the eurozone’s third- Ilargest economy which staggers under the burden of the world’s third-largest public debt. A drama, because how the story devel- ops will determine the fate of the euro, and thus of whether the world stumbles towards recovery or collapses into a new Great Depression. When did the story begin? For most people it was last Novem- ber, when a sharp rise in Italy’s borrowing costs, a shambolic four- month-long process of budget-cutting that never happened, and the desertion of parliamentary supporters, all led to the resigna- tion as prime minister of Silvio Berlusconi, the joke-telling, play- boy billionaire who had led Italy’s government for eight of the previous ten years. The respected, even revered, president of the Republic, Giorgio Napolitano, appointed in his place an inter- nationally renowned professor and former European Commis- sioner, Mario Monti, at the head of what Italians call a “technical government,” consisting mainly of fellow professors. Outside Italy, Professor Monti’s seemingly sudden ascent from his old, quiet job presiding over a private business university in Milan, Bocconi, smelt undemocratic. This was especially so as in Greece a former central bank governor, Lucas Papademos, had been installed as prime minister at a similar moment. Professor Monti was rushed into parliament as a life senator, an appoint- ment in Napolitano’s gift, which would be like the Queen appoint- ing Howard Davies a life peer in order to make the former head of when Italy suffered a financial and political crisis from which the London School of Economics Britain’s prime minister. it has yet to recover: the lira crashed out of the then European Few Italians thought it was undemocratic, however: the square Exchange-Rate Mechanism under the weight of, as now, sover- outside the president’s grand residence in Rome, the Quirinale, eign debts totalling 120 per cent of national output, and the old a former home of Popes, was filled with crowds chiefly of young political establishment crashed out of politics under the weight people celebrating Berlusconi’s fall; a YouTube image that went of the Mani Pulite, or “Clean Hands,” corruption scandal, which viral was film of an impromptu orchestra and choir singing Han- destroyed the two parties that had been running Italy for half a del’s Hallelujah chorus. century, the Christian Democrats and the Socialists. It was a wonderfully appropriate image: the Hallelujahs to say The response in 1992 was, guess what, a technical govern- goodbye and good riddance to a government drenched in scan- ment—actually two, or, on some political definitions, three of dal that had made Italy a laughing stock in international affairs them. First there was Giuliano Amato, a wily professorial poli- (Angela Merkel, the chancellor of Germany and Nicolas Sarkozy, tician; then Carlo Azeglio Ciampi, governor of the Bank of Italy; then president of France, had even smirked humiliatingly about and finally, in an ambiguously “technical” administration, Lam- Berlusconi at a joint press conference at an EU summit a few berto Dini, a former diplomat. All sought, as the heads of what in months earlier); and Hallelujahs to celebrate the arrival of a new other countries and circumstances might be called “governments Messiah, Mario Monti, to come and save Italy from its sins. of national unity,” to introduce a quick set of reforms in the hope Yet the story did not begin last November, when the world of resetting Italy’s course. first started paying full attention to Italy. It began 20 years ago, That is why Italians do not consider the Monti administration in any way anti-democratic. They have seen this before, and they Bill Emmott is the former editor of the Economist and author of “Good feel comfortable that it is all perfectly constitutional, is subject to Italy, Bad Italy” (Yale University Press) parliamentary votes of confidence, and will be followed quite soon prospect october 2012 saving italy 39 a /C or b i s © ETTORE FERRARI/ e p ETTORE © by democratic elections. But what they also know is that 20 years Mario Monti leads a country in need of political and economic ago it didn’t work. Since then Italy has stagnated, corruption has revolution. He has until April’s elections to show results got worse, the rule of law has been undermined, and the debt is again 120 per cent of the nation’s output. So their questions are Chief among them are two whose style and ideas are anath- different: why should it work now? And what new politics and pol- ema to this cautious, pro-European, devoutly Catholic professor: iticians will arrive to fill the current vacuum, asS ilvio Berlusconi Beppe Grillo and Silvio Berlusconi. Grillo is, like Monti, an out- did when the media mogul swept into politics in 1994? sider, an anti-politician, but that is where the resemblance ends. This comedian turned political activist, who sports an impres- hat is Mario Monti’s question too. He knows that Italy sive mop of curly grey hair, is a showman whose insurgent Five needs a revolution, the drastic period of transformation Star Movement is scaring mainstream political parties by win- in justice, politics, the economy, education and more ning mayoral elections and running at 20 per cent in national that it needed 20 years ago but didn’t get. Yet he must opinion polls. Most important from Monti’s point of view is the Talso know three other things: that as it stands, his spell in office fact that apart from wishing a plague on all established politi- will be for a maximum of 16 months before elections must be cal houses, Grillo’s most prominent and coherent policy is Italy’s held by April 2013 and that revolutions elsewhere, by Margaret exit from the euro. Thatcher and others, took 5-10 years at least; that revolutions are The world already knows quite enough about Berlusconi, the typically led by charismatic, tough individuals, and that although man whose bond-market-enforced resignation enabled Monti he may be tough he is certainly not charismatic; and that as his to “save” the country, and who is not officially a comedian but austerity measures and a deepening recession lose him the popu- a media billionaire whose jokes and burlesquery have led many larity that he initially had as the Messiah, politicians are schem- to make the mistake of underestimating him during his 18 years ing to take his place. in politics. Some were even fooled into believing his post- 40 saving italy prospect october 2012 resignation statement that he planned to leave frontline politics, ing reluctance—after the elections, if the winning coalition were which has since proved to be one of his funnier jokes. to ask him. Much less funny is his search for the populist, vote-winning Few doubt that if an opportunity to stay on were to present formula that he thinks could vault him back to where he believes itself, Monti would take it. Partly, that may represent a delusion he rightly belongs—Palazzo Chigi, the prime minister’s office, of empathy: politicians and political commentators naturally or at least in a role as the country’s political kingmaker. For it is assume that everyone else must be like them. But Monti is not Messrs Grillo and Berlusconi to whom Monti has been referring like them: he is more conscious of responsibility than power, and when he has recently warned other European Union leaders, and so would not seek to stay in Palazzo Chigi regardless of the cost. especially Angela Merkel, of the danger that an anti-euro and Nevertheless, my suspicion is that he would stay. anti-German political mood may be rising in his country. This The reason is that the odds are so high and the task he is pres- would rise even more rapidly if Germany fails to show solidarity. ently facing so difficult. Italy really could crash out of the euro— Grillo and Berlusconi are politically and culturally anathema to just as it did from the precursor exchange-rate mechanism along one another, but together they represent somewhere between 35 with Britain in 1992—if its politics were to turn sourly anti-Ger- per cent and 45 per cent of Italian voters. man and if markets were to conclude that its economy stood little They could never form an alliance. But what they have in com- chance of reform and growth. mon is two powerful and dangerous things: a huge talent for Someone who has served two terms as a European Commis- political campaigning by talking the language of ordinary citi- sioner (1995 to 2004) and who fully understands the economic zens; and scepticism about membership of the euro. Berlusconi, risks involved is not going to stand back and let that happen— whose right-wing party, People of Liberty, is meant to be support- if he can do anything about it. But he is painfully aware that his ing Monti’s government in parliament, has only flirted with run- technical government cannot, for lack of time, be the true instru- ning against the euro, so far saying simply that talk of returning ment of Italy’s change. He needs somehow to lay the ground for a to the lira “should not be considered blasphemy.” But his fami- much longer-term transformation. ly’s main newspaper, the aggressive and conservative il Giornale, in early August devoted its front page to an attack on Merkel, hen he took over from the flamboyant, macho, describing her Germany as “The Fourth Reich.” scandal-ridden Silvio Berlusconi, most observers For Prime Minister Monti, the man in power, this anti-euro commented on the personal contrasts between the agitation is both a danger and an asset. It is a danger, because two men: Italy was switching from a man visibly he is trying to set a new course for Italy which combines fiscal Wbored by economics to one who has dedicated his life to it; from austerity and liberalisation of markets, and so demands sacri- a two-times divorcé keen on “bunga bunga” parties with teenage fices even as the country’s recession is forcing unemployment girls to a quiet monogamist; from an Italian who can barely deci- higher (it is nearing 11 per cent of the workforce) and household pher an English menu in a hamburger joint to an arch-interna- incomes lower. The last thing he needs is for such delicate work tionalist fluent inE nglish and capable too in French and German. to be undermined by political rabble-rousing, especially from a Now, however, it is the political contrasts that matter most: party that is supposed to be supporting him. of political style, yes, but also of political diaries. Berlusconi Nevertheless it is also an asset in his dealings with Germany governed through dramatic announcements and public ral- and other eurozone creditor countries. If you don’t back me and lies, despite actually being a do-nothing prime minister; Monti my virtuous fiscal policies by helping to reduce my government’s believes that slow and steady should win the race. But also Ber- borrowing costs, he can say, then look what political forces lusconi’s most often-visited foreign leaders wereR ussia’s Vladimir you might get in my place. It is all very well seeing Syriza and Putin and Libya’s Colonel Muammar Gaddafi. Monti’s is Pope Golden Dawn rising in a small country like Greece. Imagine the Benedict XVI: in barely ten months in office he has had seven consequences if Italian politics slide out of control: it will be like audiences with the Pope. a massive avalanche hitting the euro. No doubt that reflects his Catholic faith—religious piety was It is a tricky balance to strike for a man who has never run not readily associated with Berlusconi—as well as a desire to for an elected office, who has no political party or organisation, ensure that Italy’s largest, richest and most extensive public, reli- and whose time in office is, as previously noted, severely limited. gious and even commercial organisation, the Catholic Church, Monti has said he has no intention of running for election, and is at least not too unhappy with what he is doing. Yet it is tempt- anyway his standing in opinion polls has fallen as his government ing also to draw a further conclusion: that the role Monti would of “saviours” has seemed to bring all pain and no gain. like to play in Italy in the longer term, in order to secure the eco- Yet speculation abounds about a political life for Monti beyond nomic and political transformation that he favours, is one rather the general election. The main rumour is that he will seek to like the Pope’s, albeit in secular form—as a quiet but stern guide, replace Giorgio Napolitano, the man who manoeuvred him behind the scenes, though occasionally emerging onto a balcony. into the prime ministership, as president of the Republic when To do that would require both stamina and toughness. There Napolitano’s term expires next May. That post, which is largely is no doubt that Monti has the latter quality. When he was Euro- ceremonial but does come with some leverage, as Napolitano has pean Commissioner for competition policy in 1999-2004 he shown, is elected by the two houses of parliament. showed it in spades, taking on multinational giants including The other rumours swirl around the likelihood of Monti break- Microsoft and General Electric. The Economist, of which at the ing his pledge not to remain prime minister after the next elec- time I was editor-in-chief, named him “Super Mario,” after the tions. He could seek to do that either by standing formally as the video-game character, and wrote that American business con- prime ministerial candidate at the head of a coalition of parties sidered him “the corporate equivalent of Saddam Hussein,” a (though, being a life senator, he would not actually have to win a remark that Monti quoted smilingly in his defence in one of his parliamentary seat), or by accepting an invitation to do so—feign- early parliamentary speeches last year after Italians had accused prospect october 2012 saving italy 41 i m a g e s © g ett y © Berlusconi: a man visibly bored by economics and whose newspaper, il Giornale, described Angela Merkel’s Germany as “The Fourth Reich” their new prime minister of being too cosy with global companies try emerge from very difficult times.T hose times were the fall of and institutions such as the Davos World Economic Forum and Mussolini and defeat in the second world war. the Trilateral Commission. Einaudi was, like Monti, a distinguished economist, unusually What Monti is definitely not is either charismatic or out- fond by Italian standards of liberal ideas, who had also worked spoken. He is actually a witty man, with quite a droll sense of as a journalist, for the big mainstream daily, Corriere della Sera humour. But that sort of humour does not come across very effec- and, as it happens, for the Economist. During Mussolini’s fascist tively in public communications, and he speaks too slowly and reign, he had had to give up the Corriere but continued to contrib- methodically to really do well in our soundbite age. ute, anonymously of course, to the Economist. That finally ceased Moreover, like most professors he has something of a tin ear for when he was made post-war Italy’s first governor of the Bank of public sentiment. When a fresh match-fixing scandal emerged in Italy and then, in 1948, became the country’s second president of Italy’s Serie A, the top football league, as well as rightly condemn- the Republic, a post he held until 1955. ing the malfeasance on moral grounds he immediately suggested That parallel, with an economist who became president, is that the league should be suspended for two to three years. A pol- one reason why the choice was interesting, but far from the most itician who is cutting the public’s bread through his austere fiscal important one. That is the fact that Einaudi, in both of his two policies was thus proposing to take away the most popular circus post-war roles, can be credited with having been one of the small too. It did not go down well. number of post-fascist political leaders who created the condi- I have seen at first hand how he deals with cameras and media tions for Italy’s economic miracle. It seems impossible now, but interviews. I have been making a documentary film about his in the two decades or so until the oil shock of the early 1970s, Italy country, called Girlfriend in a Coma. For the film, I interviewed was Europe’s fastest-growing economy. In fact, it ranked third in Monti in Palazzo Chigi last December, and I asked this unlikely- the world in terms of annual average growth in national output, seeming revolutionary leader who was his role model. I offered behind only Japan and South Korea. him some examples to trigger his thinking: Mikhail Gorbachev? The growth resulted from many things, especially political Margaret Thatcher? Nelson Mandela? stability and the freer international trade made possible by Monti looked embarrassed to be asked the question. He tilted the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade in 1948 and the his head to one side and thought about it, silently. Eventually he establishment of European Economic Community by the began by saying his model should not be a foreigner but rather Treaty of Rome in 1957. Italy’s outperformance of its European an Italian. neighbours also had something to do with its relative state of The Italian he chose was a revealing one, though not a name under-development: it had plenty of catching up to do. But two that would have been familiar to international audiences for the other factors were crucial: stable monetary and fiscal policy, film. It was LuigiE inaudi: a man, he said, who worked with quiet which set an attractive environment for business investment; determination, in the service of the public and to help his coun- and a wave of internal liberalisation, dismantling many (but 42 saving italy prospect october 2012

far from all) elements of the corporatist state of Mussolini. The harder, and that has been the Italian condition. Complacency, country’s macroeconomic stability and liberal microeconomic mixed with a parasitical, corrupt political system and an elec- policies owed a great deal to Einaudi. torate that holds national politics in a high degree of contempt, Monti’s choice of Einaudi as his Italian role model can there- thwarted reform in 1992-2012. fore be interpreted both as a tribute to his personal style, as Which is where Italy and Monti stand now: confronting self- an unassuming, hard-working public servant, and to his eco- ishness and scepticism about liberal solutions. The recipe for the nomic philosophy. It is that philosophy, in Italy’s very different country’s transformation is chiefly based in economics and the circumstances today, which Mr Monti would dearly like to put enforcement of the rule of law; but whether it ever gets into the into practice: as a liberal Pope, following Adam Smith rather oven and then out onto the table will be determined by politics. than the gospels. The liberal reforms have begun, stealthily, but have barely scraped the surface of what needs to be done. No responsible e is attempting to do so in a very Einaudian style: international investor ought now to be lending to Italy on the steadily, with determination, often with little fanfare. basis of any wave of liberalisation or structural reform, for there Monetary stability is, of course, now in the hands of hasn’t been one. Instead, they have to place their bet on politics his compatriot Mario Draghi, president of the Euro- and the jockeying for position ahead of, and then after, the forth- Hpean Central Bank, although it is also a creature of eurozone pol- coming general elections. itics. So Monti has been a much more extensive traveller than Neither Grillo nor Berlusconi offer any hope to Monti’s liberal his predecessor. As a result, however, he has fallen rapidly out cause. But although they are hogging centre stage in the political of favour in Berlin, as his main effort to try to achieve monetary drama, they are not the only players. stability has been to try to cajole the Germans into accepting the Speaking trenchantly from the wings is the young mayor of mutualisation of eurozone debt. Chancellor Merkel has not found Florence, the 37-year-old, Tony Blair-admiring Matteo Renzi, this amusing, even from a man fond of describing himself as “the who hopes to oust the old establishment of the main left-wing most German of Italian economists.” party, the Democratic Party, in primary elections to become their Fiscal policy is, however, in his hands, and there he has taken prime ministerial candidate. There is also a key member of Mon- stern charge, cutting spending, raising taxes, regalvanising the ti’s own government, a former bank chief executive no less, Cor- campaign against tax evasion, and bringing forward to 2014 the rado Passera, who is widely tipped to make a run for conventional Berlusconi government’s previous target of achieving budget bal- politics from his current position as Minister for Economic Devel- ance. He must be disappointed, therefore, that financial markets opment. And rivalling Berlusconi as a budding kingmaker is Pier have not been more impressed by his efforts: although Italy is the Ferdinando Casini, head of the small UDC party, formally the only one among the troubled debtor countries of the eurozone heir to the old Christian Democrats. that is following the rules of the zone’s new fiscal treaty, and is Between Messrs Renzi, Passera and Casini there is the glim- anyway running an annual deficit of a mere 2.7 per cent of GDP mer of hope for a post-election coalition that Mario Monti (about one-third the size of Britain’s and half that of Spain), it would feel comfortable with, leaving him free to steer matters still finds the yields on its government bonds regularly spiralling from the Popes’ old Quirinale home as president of the Repub- up towards the dangerous territory above 7 per cent. lic. Achieving that dream coalition will be a tall order. But as the One reason for that is the country’s recession: the latest con- autumn evolves, it is progress towards that which any investor, sensus forecasts have the economy shrinking by 2.1 per cent this economist, or even simply sympathiser for the euro must watch year. Another is the general concern about the stability of the and pray for. It is only that sort of longer-term, democratically eurozone: if a Greek exit were then to cause a run on Spain, the elected government that would be capable of implementing the contagion would inevitably spread to Italy, so investors are pric- Monti-Einaudi vision. ing in that risk. A third is the anti-euro talk being circulated by Beppe Grillo and fostered too by Berlusconi: this creates a politi- cal risk that again must be considered. But there is also a fourth and even bigger reason: it is that Italy’s real problem is not fiscal. It is its chronic lack of economic growth—not just in this year’s recession but over two decades. Unless markets start to believe that this could change, then sovereign debts of 120 per cent of GDP, totalling €2 trillion, are always going to pose a risk, regard- less of the fiscal deficit. Italy’s sovereign debt, after all, is nothing new, unlike those of Greece, Ireland, and Spain. It was accumulated by the big budget deficits run by governments during the 1970s and 1980s, an era when domestic terrorism (491 people died in political violence from 1970–87) and industrial strife led politicians to try to buy social peace by creating generous public pensions and at last con- structing a national health service. Budget deficits averaged an astonishing 9.8 per cent of annual GDP in 1973-95. This kept eco- nomic growth going, rather artificially, as did frequent devalua- tions of the lira, but the price was high inflation and, in 1992, as noted earlier, a financial and political crisis. “You’re the only person who understands the Being used to something can, however, make dealing with it complex financial fraud you’ve committed” PT Prospect Ad 7AW_1 11/09/2012 11:00 Page 1

Mandela’s Dream - A Political Tour - Jan 20-27, 2013 Almost two decades on from the end of apartheid, South Africa remains a success story. It is a multi-racial democracy and a regional power. But after 18 years in office, the party that fought so hard for change is failing to meet the needs of its supporters. Ordinary South Africans lack basic services, unemployment is high, and leading members of the ANC stand accused of corruption. This January, on an unprecedented tour, we examine where the “rainbow nation” is headed, and ask whether it can keep Mandela’s dream alive. Contact us at [email protected] or call 0843 289 2349

T: 0843 289 2349 www.politicaltours.com

A revolutionary concept for travellers passionate about politics and current affairs

Photo © Thys Dullart 44 prospect october 2012 Jailed for success Why Iran imprisoned its leading HIV specialists tina rosenberg u bazl Niko REUTERS/Mo rte za © Police burn drugs, confiscated in Tehran: AIDS prevalence among drug injectors shocked Iran, which now offers addicts clean needles

f Kamiar Alaei’s 63 days in solitary detention in or three weeks on one wall and then moved to another wall.” Tehran’s notorious Evin prison, one of the worst Kamiar was new to prison. The interrogators were playing good was the day his cell was painted. Cell 74 of Unit 209 cop/bad cop and he didn’t know if he could trust them. “People was tiny, six feet by four, and Kamiar, who is not tall, wrote ‘be strong’ and ‘don’t trust anybody,’” he said. “That helped could flatten his palms on each wall when standing. me the most.” OBut the ugly green walls provided companionship. They were cov- Then one morning he woke up to the smell of paint. To his hor- ered with words, short poems, brief prayers—written with pens, ror, the cells in his block were being repainted—a cheery yellow, scratched with broken plastic spoons, even written in blood. but it was no consolation. The words of his predecessors were lost; “When you are in solitary you don’t know when it will be fin- now no one would understand what they had been through. ished, so you have to keep your motivation to survive,” Kamiar Kamiar was 34 when he was arrested, in his family’s apart- said. The words on the walls provided his—he permitted himself to ment on 27th June, 2008. His brother Arash, five years older, read one word a day. “I started from one side of the wall and read had been arrested the day before. They were accused of conspir- one word, and then I’d be done till the next day. It was like seeing ing with an enemy government to overthrow Iran’s regime. The an ad for a beautiful movie that you’ll watch tomorrow. I spent two evidence the eventually presented against them was laughable— Tina Rosenberg writes an online column for the New York Times and is one of Kamiar’s “secret meetings” cited by the authorities was author, most recently, of “Join the Club: How Peer Pressure Can Transform actually a blind date. the World,” and the e-book “D for Deception” What makes the Alaeis’ story unusual is not the how of their prospect october 2012 jailed for success 45 arrest and imprisonment, but the why. The official reason for their therapy that allows drug users to live normal lives. arrest was described by a spokesman for the Iranian judiciary: In 2008, according to UNAIDS, the United Nations pro- “They were linked to the CIA, backed by the United States gov- gramme on HIV/AIDS, Iran gave out more clean needles than ernment and state department,” said Ali-Reza Jamshidi. “They Canada. It currently has nearly twice as many prisoners on meth- recruited and trained people to work with different espionage net- adone maintenance therapy as Britain does. It has thousands of works to launch a velvet overthrow of the Iranian government.” methadone clinics. But Kamiar and Arash—who got a three and a six year sen- With harm reduction, Iran has kept an AIDS epidemic among tence, respectively—had not been breaking Iranian law, nor were drug users from spreading through society, saving countless lives. they doing anything that could be considered dissent. They were The evidence is overwhelming that harm reduction reduces dis- AIDS doctors. They worked with Iran’s most marginalised popu- ease and crime, while not increasing addiction. But the idea lations—drug addicts, sex workers, prisoners—and invented new that the state should pass out needles to drug addicts is, at first ways of helping those people that came to be adopted across the glance—possibly second as well—scandalous. Social conservatives country as official policy. And they spoke about what Iran was have blocked its use in many of the places that need it most. Yet doing in high-profile international meetings, bringing goodwill the ultraconservative near-theocracy of Tehran is treating drug and credit to a government in desperate need of both. use much as if it were Amsterdam. It happened in no small part These meetings were their undoing. The brothers were too pub- because of Arash and Kamiar Alaei. lic, too closely aligned with western scientists. “They were mixing it with Americans a bit too much,” said Ali Ansari, a professor of met the Alaeis in New York in October last year just days Iranian history at the University of St Andrews. “The government after Arash got out of prison.T he occasion was a small gath- was trying to send a signal to people—don’t do things with the west ering organised by Physicians for Human Rights, which had on your own initiative.” mounted an international campaign for their release. As the But few doctors had ever done more to help their country. AIDS Ibrothers told their story—Kamiar in confident English, Arash in Iran is a problem of injecting drug users. Iran has one of the more halting—it was clear they had the serenity, certitude and world’s highest proportions of young people and shares a 570-mile stubbornness required of the most dedicated dissidents. border with the world’s biggest opium producer, Afghanistan. The brothers grew up in Kermanshah, a city of about a mil- These factors combined to give Iran the highest rate of opiate lion in Iran’s west. The city is thousands of years old and has an abuse in the world. “Addiction in Iran is ten times what is known ancient tradition of tolerance, which the Alaei family celebrated. in other countries,” said Antonio Mario Costa, who until recently They were upper-middle class and not particularly religious. Their was the head of the United Nations Office on Drugs andC rime. father, Shaban Alaei, was a professor of Persian literature at the After the Islamic revolution in 1979, drug addiction was pro- University of Kermanshah, and in the afternoons opened his house nounced counter-revolutionary, something forced on Iran by the to high school students, whom he taught for free. Shaban knew west. All drug treatment centres were closed. For addicts, it was thousands of poems. Every weekend he would open a book at ran- prison or labour camps. Possession of drugs in large quantities dom—“it was very exciting,” said Kamiar—and read a poem, then was a capital offence. Executions soared with an even harsher explained to his children what lessons it carried. Later, when he drug law that took effect in 1989; mass hangings began, mostly was in solitary confinement, Kamiar drew sustenance from the of people convicted after torture and summary trials by a revo- many poems he had memorised, reciting them to himself. lutionary tribunal. When the brothers were boys, the family travelled to Tehran to In the late 1990s, however, some government officials and celebrate the New Year with an uncle and aunt. At dinner, their influential academics began to recognise the consequences of this uncle suffered a heart attack. But he could not go to the hospi- punitive policy. Even if they did not care about the health of drug tal, as he had been drinking wine; the punishment for drinking addicts, they cared that the diseases of drug users would spread alcohol was lashing or whipping. Their uncle waited until his body into the general population through sexual contact. They began showed no signs of drink, and in the early morning, he went to to study HIV rates. Officials expected that rates would be high in the hospital. It was too late—he died two days later. It was the prisons, which were full of drug addicts who were still injecting, beginning of the brothers’ interest in helping those marginalised sharing whatever needles they found or could improvise. But no because they had violated society’s rules. one could imagine how high. At one prison surveyed in 2001 HIV In 1998, Kamiar was interning at the Department of Lung Dis- rates were at a terrifying 63 per cent. ease in Tehran when he saw a tall young man who was being kept The AIDS prevalence rates among drug injectors shocked Iran in isolation, attended not by a nurse but by his mother. “He has into changing its approach to drugs. The policy today is incon- AIDS,” a nurse told him. He began to learn about the disease, and sistent: the regime executes hundreds of people each year for the more he studied the more he was struck by how much it was drug trafficking after the most cursory of trials, and its paranoia misunderstood. Fear of AIDS patients was widespread. A promi- and totalitarian tendencies have occasionally affected its policies nent politician and physician in Kermanshah had raised money to towards drug abuse. set up an AIDS reference hospital there, but it had been cancelled But the progressive attitude towards drugs that was begun dur- after large protests, which turned violent. Local residents worried ing the Khatami government is, to an extent, being maintained. the whole city would be stigmatised. Drug abuse is treated mainly as a health problem, not as a crime Kamiar and Arash (who was practising general medicine) (although drug dealers are treated very differently, often fac- decided to do their post-doctoral internship in Kermanshah ing capital punishment). Instead of punishing drug users, Iran studying AIDS. They knew they would have no income and employs harm reduction, which seeks to prevent the spread of would be living with their parents. Fariba Mansouri, the head drug-related disease—including AIDS—by offering addicts clean of Kermanshah’s health commission, gave them a room on the needles, as well as the methadone and other drug substitution second floor of a big clinic at the medical university—a “clinic” 46 jailed for success prospect october 2012

with room enough for only two chairs. She told them “We’ll give ernment minister since the 1979 revolution. “The Blair adminis- you the opportunity, but if something happens, you’re on your tration and the Tehran administration were looking for subjects own,” Kamiar said. on which to have a first diplomatic rapprochement,” said Mike The brothers knew local citizens would not embrace a second Trace, then the UK’s deputy drug czar. “We decided to do it on attempt to treat AIDS patients, but the clinic would be tiny and drugs because we had a shared interest there,” said Trace. discreet—the only people who knew about it were their clients. Iran’s first revolutionary governments were not interested in And although drug use—and working with drug users—was international opinion, but it mattered a lot to the Khatami gov- illegal, the Alaeis had the unofficial support of local authorities ernment—it needed a counterweight to the conservatives. Trace and the medical university. “The government was very worried wanted to make Iran’s leaders understand that its harm reduction about AIDS, but didn’t have the authority to control all officials advocates were making the country look good. and religious leaders,” said Arash. “So it supported some pilot It helped that health is one of the most modern, science-based programmes.” sectors in Iran—and one of the least susceptible to the influence Initially, two chairs were enough—they only had a few patients of the mullahs. “When I look at Saudi Arabia, Tunisia or Malay- a week. They found themselves doing as much social work as med- sia, I see lots of interference from religion in public health,” said icine. People with AIDS were fired from jobs, shunned by friends Nassirimanesh. “We’d have joint meetings between the health and family, abandoned by spouses. “Their isolation was terrible,” ministry and religious advisers. We’d laugh at them. It was none said Kamiar. They found that half of the AIDS patients who died of their business.” within a year of their diagnosis died by suicide. The Alaeis went to Nevertheless, they couldn’t ignore the religious leaders. The see their patients’ employers to plead for their jobs. They arranged Alaeis recruited doctors from Kermanshah’s medical university weekend trips, negotiated housing for HIV-positive widows and and health department to find moderate clerics, and invited them even looked for partners for their patients. (The BBC short film, to meetings and workshops to learn about the clinic’s philosophy Mohammad and the Matchmaker, follows one such marriage.) After and achievements. Nassirimanesh was doing something similar. a year, the clinic was seeing dozens of people a day. They learned how to couch their points to meet Koranic standards. The Alaeis’ patients had multiple problems. The brothers real- Soon the Iranian Centre for Disease Management was using ised that they couldn’t treat AIDS in isolation, so they expanded the triangular clinic model nationwide and taking it to inter- the clinic into what they called a “triangular” clinic, treating drug national meetings. The Alaeis were invited to join a group writ- addiction and sexually-transmitted infections, as well as AIDS. ing the country’s national AIDS strategy. In 2004, the triangular Their goal was to help their patients with all their problems—med- clinic in Kermanshah won a prestigious international honour—the ical or otherwise—or refer them to people who could. World Health Organization named it a “best practice,” praising Around the same time the Alaeis began their clinic, a doctor the clinic’s “patient-centric” approach, one that tries to help peo- named Bijan Nassirimanesh in the town of Marvdasht, near the ple with all their complex problems. Interestingly, while the early city of Shiraz, had decided to turn half his practice into a harm- version of the WHO’s report on the clinic credited the Alaeis, the reduction clinic. He didn’t even have any drug user patients, but final 53-page report doesn’t mention them once—“although they he began to invite them in. He offered clean needles and buprenor- forgot to remove our pictures,” Kamiar said. He said that phine therapy, buying the tablets on the black market. Nassir- the health ministry asked the WHO to take the imanesh had no official backing. He was on his own, exposed, Alaeis out. The brothers took it as a sign vulnerable to arrest. “It attracted me because it was scary,” said of success—the government Nassirimanesh. “I was looking for adventure and rebellion.” liked their work so much Nassirimanesh, like the Alaeis, eventually found official sup- that it was time to take port, as Iranian health and prison officials saw that drug use full credit for it. needed to be treated as a health problem, not a crime. This was By 2005, harm reduction not a popular view in Iran, but its advocates had some advantages. was official policy in Iran. In the late 1990s and early 2000s the government was led by Presi- Ayatollah Sharoudi, the head dent Mohammad Khatami, a reformer, and had an unusually high of the judiciary, issued a letter number of competent and dedicated officials. instructing all judges, law enforce- The work of academics and doctors outside government, like ment and religious leaders to facil- the Alaeis and Nassirimanesh, was also important—the govern- itate harm reduction programmes. ment could let them experiment with harm reduction while main- “That was huge,” said Kaveh Khosh- taining complete deniability. In 2002, Nassirimanesh moved to nood, an Iranian who is an associate pro- Tehran and won health ministry approval to set up a harm reduc- fessor at Yale’s School of Public Health. tion clinic there, which he called Persepolis. He soon expanded to “People copied it and carried it around to five clinics. show to the police if they were stopped.” At the end of 2000, Parviz Afshar, the head of prison health, vis- But that same year, Mahmoud ited the Alaeis’ triangular clinic, and liked what he saw. Two years Ahmadinejad won the presidency. He later, inspired by their example, he set up a triangular clinic in a began to roll back many of Khata- Kermanshah prison. With money from the UN, Afshar brought mi’s political reforms. There were some prison and health officials from all over the country to train with attempts to do the same with harm Im a ges doctors at the clinic, among them the Alaei brothers. The hand of the reformers was strengthened by the encourage- Arash Alaei, with an Aids awareness booklet. ment coming from outside. It began in 1999, when Mo Mowlam It took 30 rounds of negotiations with the

© MCT via G ett y via MCT © was planning to visit Iran—the first state visit from aB ritish gov- government to make it suitably conservative prospect october 2012 jailed for success 47 reduction. Officials began to argue that harm reduction was most, we would have to stop our work,” said Kamiar. “There were immoral. The education ministry stopped plans to distribute no signals. Never.” When he was arrested and thrown into solitary a Red Crescent book for high school students about AIDS that confinement in 2008, he said, “I thought there was some misun- the Alaeis had helped to write. derstanding, that they wanted to arrest someone else.” But harm reduction survived, kept alive by the support of doc- Nassirimanesh and others believe the Alaeis were singled out tors, medical universities, health officials, prison officials and not because they worked on harm reduction, but because they international organizations. had become an international face of Iran’s harm reduction pol- Kamiar decamped for Harvard, joining the huge number of icy—in part because of their energy and ambition, in part their Iranian doctors who had studied abroad. He wasn’t fleeing, he good English. “They are among the few who were able to link said. Kamiar felt he could go abroad because harm reduction was what was going on inside Iran with those outside,” said Khosh- so thoroughly entrenched. He didn’t see it as leaving Iran—he nood. “In my own community at Yale, several researchers went was back after four months, and returned every summer, bring- to Iran because of them. They felt part of a larger community—a ing with him 15 to 25 American and Iranian-American students global community.” to work as interns with neglected communities in Iran on pub- There were people in Iran who felt that the Alaeis did not lic health, and he intended to move back to Iran after gradua- deserve as much of the spotlight as they were given. “They were tion. Arash, always the more driven of the two, stayed in Tehran, outside [Iran] in almost every conference,” said Nassirimanesh. expanding triangular clinics there, setting up training courses for “But so many people put in a lot of effort—they haven’t been to doctors from Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Iraq, participating in any conferences at all. If you want to put yourself in history, you and leading international collaborations. should say ‘I am part of a team.’” The Alaeis felt prepared. Their triangular model was now “There was a large effort going on with harm reduction in embedded in the fabric of health care in Iran. There was scien- Iran,” said Khoshnood. “They are part of that. Some things tific evidence showing their success. The programmes were win- would have happened without them. Others not.” ning Iran international praise. They had no idea what was coming. In an email discussion group on harm reduction in Iran, the Alaeis’ arrest and imprisonment was endlessly analysed. Espe- hen we think of people jailed for noble work under cially during the first year, some people were less than wholly a repressive government, courage is the word that sympathetic, complaining that the brothers had taken too comes to mind—we assume that they hear the much credit for the changes. The Alaeis argue that the rules for threats and simply proceed. That is not what hap- credit in academic work were constantly shifting: Ministry of Wpened. The Alaeis do not consider themselves par- Health officials at first objected to having their names on scien- ticularly courageous. They were, instead, tific papers—too risky—and later complained when they were three other much more mundane left off. Kamiar said that after their arrest, the government things. They were first of all, empa- tried to discredit them in the online discussion group, thetic: they identified with their among other places. patients; abandoning them was The very suddenness and irrationality of the Alaeis’ unthinkable. They were also stub- arrest seemed designed to send a message to anyone born. Their third quality, perhaps, who had contacts with the west: anyone could be next. was naïveté. If the new govern- There will be no warning. Better to stay at home. ment was threatening them, Nassirimanesh was getting nervous. “I was getting it was on a wavelength they messages that I was talking to too many people around couldn’t hear. “We thought at the world, in English,” he said. “I felt so uncomfortable. There was never a clear threat, but I don’t think the Alaei brothers got a clear threat. I felt that maybe my time will come very soon.” He left for Vancouver, where he now does research on harm reduction. The brothers’ only real clues about the rea- son for their arrest came from the questions their interrogators posed. They asked about their relationships with academics in the United States and about the international conferences they attended. They asked about their travels around Iran. “They said ‘why are you going to the northeast? Why are you going to the south?’” said Arash. “They said we wanted to have branches in different cities we can use to work against the government.” When Kamiar was finally brought into a courtroom in early 2009, after eight months in prison, the judge addressed him as Kamran instead of Kamiar and asked him a series of bizarre questions: Why 48 jailed for success prospect october 2012 did the United States support a military coup in Iran in 1953 tically quiet. He didn’t even tell many of his friends and family in (answer: “But I was born in 1974!”); Why didn’t the US back the Iran that he was free. After Arash passed the three-year mark— Palestinians in a dispute five days ago (“How should I know? I was half his sentence—Kamiar began to speak out. When Arash had in solitary”); Why did you have connections with Bill University? spent three years and two months in jail, he was freed. He quickly (The judge apparently meant Yale). joined Kamiar in Albany. Absurd, but it was probably a true illustration of the govern- ment’s paranoia. “In the lead up to [the elections of] 2009, they ran remains the only place in the Middle East taking its were arresting a lot of people for ‘fomenting democracy,’” said AIDS problem seriously. “They were and continue to Ansari, the St Andrews professor. “[The Alaeis’] medical activi- be one of the few countries offering any services in the ties were seen as a cover for US infiltration. It’s pure conspiracy.” region,” said Claudia Stoicescu, public health analyst at Apparently, Kamiar’s answers were satisfactory enough to Ithe London-based Harm Reduction International. The number get him out of solitary and into the general prison population. of places where addicts can get methadone maintenance ther- Although in the west Evin is infamous for the rape, torture and apy has soared—tripling in two years. “If I had stayed another murder of political prisoners, it mainly houses common criminals. year, I maybe would have ended up like the Alaei brothers,” Kamiar and Arash, finally reunited, asked to work in the prison Nassirimanesh said. But his Persepolis clinics continue—some health centre. They were turned down, and given jobs in the cul- under their own power, others absorbed into local health care tural department. facilities. Harm reduction continues to be state policy in Iran. “We didn’t like the atmosphere in prison,” said Arash. “Espe- The evidence for its success can be found in the annual surveys cially the way prisoners related to each other. So we decided to of antenatal clinics that every country performs. As of 2011, only change it.” Despite some hostility from the common prisoners, one woman tested in the survey sites has ever been found HIV pos- who viewed political prisoners as elites, the Alaeis began edu- itive. Harm reduction is containing the epidemic. cating the prisoners on AIDS, drug use, hand washing and other But Iran is driving with its foot on the accelerator and the health issues. They taught English and encouraged other pris- brake at the same time. President Ahmadinejad announced in oners to teach Spanish (which Kamiar took up), German, Ara- 2007 that there were no gay people in Iran, and cancelled the bic, French and even Esperanto. They called publishers to collect national commemoration of AIDS Day. The government shut material for the prison library. They organised sports leagues and down some research on addiction and cancelled a programme circulated a prison newsletter. “Keeping busy from 6am to 10pm of collaboration on harm reduction between Yale and one of was how we survived,” said Kamiar. Iran’s most prestigious research organisations. Needle exchange The prison authorities had enough, and moved them to the programmes have been cut back—about 200 of the country’s bakery and kitchen. There they campaigned for healthier food, 637 programmes closed in the last two years. Budget constraints started a hygiene campaign to keep the kitchen cleaner and are the main reason, but it shows how AIDS has ceased to be a took advantage of their jobs passing out bread to talk to prison- priority. A new law allows judges to force addicts into detox pro- ers about their cases. They were then made to sweep and rake grammes if they choose. leaves. In the spring of 2010 the authorities at Evin gave up and The most horrifying change is the rocketing number of exe- moved them to a prison for drug dealers and users. The staff cutions for drug trafficking or smuggling since the middle of there allowed them to work in the clinic. They started to educate 2010. The Foreign and Commonwealth Office Human Rights prisoners about basic health care and doctors about epidemiol- Report counts 650 executions in Iran last year—of those, 85 to ogy. They were reassigned to the kitchen. 90 per cent were for drug offences. Drug trafficking and drug At the end of 2010, after two and a half years—870 days, 20,880 use are very different, but these trials illustrate the govern- hours, as he counts it—Kamiar was released. In Iran first-time ment’s totalitarian tendencies. We know nothing about the vast prisoners are eligible for release after serving half their sentence; majority of these trials, but in some of the cases that have come Kamiar had served a full year more than that. His release, moreo- to light, the trials seemed no more serious than that of Kamiar. ver, was conditional for four years. His freedom depended on the In at least one case, a political prisoner arrested for protest government’s good will. ended up being executed for drug trafficking. He decided to leave the country. Then began a high-speed Key- Kamiar has just finished his comprehensive exams in Albany, stone Kops tour of Iran’s bureaucracy to collect the documenta- and is starting his dissertation, on the impact of a new HIV testing tion he needed while not alerting the authorities. policy in the United States. He put his prison-acquired Spanish Kamiar went back to Albany, where he had been studying to use running classes for teenagers on the Haiti-Dominican bor- at the State University of New York after his Harvard scholar- der, and spoke in El Salvador at a workshop on health and human ship ran out. His sister Mahnaz was already there. She had lost rights in prison. her job as a computer engineer after the brothers’ arrest and When Arash was released from prison, he applied to the moved to Armenia. A month before Kamiar’s release she went authorities to resume his work. They told him that he could do to Albany as well. Once in the US, Kamiar found a whole inter- no social activity—no doctoring, no teaching, no organising, no national network already at work for Arash, who was still serv- advocacy. So he, too, is in Albany, working with the university on ing his term. Kamiar had heard about it in prison: on one visit, its international collaborations and preparing a project to train each family member hugged him and Arash, and whisper one harm reduction practitioners in Afghanistan, Tajikistan and word in his ear—put together, the message was “Don’t worry, the Iraq. “We can’t go to our countries, so we should go to our bor- world supports you.” der,” he said. “All the international contacts made them high-profile,” said But if they could go home? Khoshnood. “It got them in trouble, but it also protected them. ” “We’d go tomorrow,” said Arash. “Tonight.” said Kamiar. “If we Because Arash was still in prison, Kamiar kept uncharacteris- had the opportunity to work,” said Arash. NFC Business Benefits Advert (April):Layout 1 19/04/2012 14:32 Page 1

Support The National Forest Meet corporate, environmental and social responsibility objectives by supporting The National Forest. Efficient, Effective, Ethical Contact: Lynne Richards T: 01283 551211 E: [email protected] W: www.nationalforest.org 50 prospect october 2012 You have reached your destination Will satnav kill the London cabbies’ Knowledge? hephzibah anderson

ince getting behind the wheel of one of London’s black lating… Recalculating,” as you trundle on in the wrong direction taxis in 2008, Mark Baxter has acquired some tall but having failed to make that non-existent right turn. true tales, like the one about the couple who faked preg- In just a decade, the satnav has become ubiquitous. The 4,500 nancy and labour pains in an attempt to scam a free ride vehicles that make up Addison Lee’s fleet, for instance, all carry from Claridge’s to Clapham. Then there’s the chap who them. Meanwhile, the official stance of the black cab driver Stried to impress his date by challenging Baxter to a game of name- remains cocky. “We see them as no threat at all,” Steve McNa- that-street. The prize? Double or quits on the fare. Thanks to the mara, general secretary of the London Taxi Drivers Association, Knowledge, it was a good night for the cabbie. told me. “They are all, pardon my French, shit.” Unique in the world of taxi driving, the Knowledge is the proc- As Baxter’s passenger learnt, the Knowledge is tough to beat. ess by which cabbies memorise London’s streets and places of Its acquisition requires exams, both written and oral. It’s not interest. It came into being in 1865 back when a hackney carriage unheard of for “Knowledge Boys” (and girls) to put in 70-hour was a horse-drawn hansom cab, and is a gruelling feat of learning weeks, puttering about by scooter learning the 320 journeys or that lasts, on average, as long as a university degree. This know- “runs” found in the Blue Book. The goal is to internalise the entire how means drivers can take customers from A to B via some fly Knowledge zone, which extends in a six mile radius from Charing side streets—or “back doubles,” as these short cuts are known— Cross. That’s as far as Alexandra Palace in the north and Crystal thereby justifying a tariff that seems steep partly because passen- Palace in the south, Stratford in the east and Chiswick in the west. gers have to sit there watching the meter tick. A cabbie should ultimately be able to get from anywhere to eve- The Knowledge is also the tool with which black cab drivers rywhere within that zone. The runs are just a tool to help learn its have guarded their monopoly. Regular minicabs have no “for 25,000 streets and 20,000 landmarks and places of interest. hire” signs because they must be pre-booked; only licensed hack- Lacking anything resembling a grid system, London’s ancient ney carriages may actively tout for fares on the street. In cities tangle of crescents and squares and alleyways presents the driver like New York, such permits are purchased; in London they’re with problems that examiners eagerly compound. They have granted exclusively to those with the Knowledge. As a gatekeeper, recently asked candidates to provide routes that avoid traffic it is incredibly effective—there are 21,500 black cab licence holders lights—all major junctions, in practice—and each has his or her in London, a number that has scarcely fluctuated over the years. own quirks. One, for instance, is fond of including obscure points Yet the black cab driver’s exceptionalism and the Knowledge such as the city’s smallest statue—two mice nibbling cheese on itself are under siege. Earlier this year, John Griffin, chairman Philpot Lane—or the Policeman’s Coat Hook, which is a peg on of Europe’s largest private hire firm, Addison Lee, mounted an the wall of a building in Great Newport Street. The Knowledge assault on one of the hackney carriages’ exclusive privileges: the dropout rate tops 70 per cent. It’s little wonder that those who stay use of bus lanes. Encouraging his drivers to use them, he earned the course develop enlarged hippocampi. some 800 tickets and a legal suit brought by Transport for Lon- To help and encourage would-be cabbies, Baxter, a former don. (Griffin went on to derail his cause further with some anti- Grange Hill actor, teaches a twice-weekly class at the West Lon- cyclist comments that no doubt won him grudging support from don Knowledge School, where he was recently to be found wearing rival cabbies, but also lost the company a lucrative Whitehall con- a cartoon t-shirt captioned “the Mutts’ nuts,” his driver’s badge tract.) Meanwhile, an app launched by Addison Lee last year is slung around his neck. The school occupies a handful of rooms in helping the firm to get around the ban on trawling for trade. a community centre on the fringes of a canal-side estate, its walls Technological advances pose a more pernicious threat. Though and tabletops covered with laminated maps, the thin blue line of cabbies continue to trounce satellite navigation-assisted drivers in the Thames snaking across each. Off to one side, a run is being cross-London races, the machines are gaining ground. TomTom “called” by a Knowledge Boy who must be nearing 40. Eyes are released its first navigator product in 2002. Within two years it closed as if in prayer, he chants street names swiftly as an auc- was offering live traffic data. Features now include weather infor- tioneer: “Leave by… Forward… Left, forward, bear left into...” He’s mation, text-to-speech, user-generated content about road clo- watched by his classmates, all aged between 30 and 50, one wear- sures, Google local search, real-time speed camera updates, and ing specs pushed up above an anxious frown, another—an Addison a choice of voices in which to be told “Recalculating… Recalcu- Lee driver, it turns out—unable to quit tapping his foot beneath the table. Concentration is total and I’m admitted only after show- Hephzibah Anderson is the author of “Chastened” (Chatto & Windus) ing ID sufficient to prove that I’m not a spy from another school. Link/A la my Winston © prospect october 2012 you have reached your destination 51

Needless to say, everyone here has a favourite satnav flaw. In addition to dead zones, in the heart of the Square Mile roads become so narrow and closely entwined that the machine can’t tell which you’re on. It will also stick to the main roads, sending you the same way at 5pm as 5am. On a more basic level, you need to know where you’re going, which people who hail taxis tend not to. They’ll say things like “Take me to Blood Brothers.” Or else they’ll ask for Albany Road, of which there are six. Unless, of course, they actually mean Albany Street. The Knowledge provides the means to solve all these prob- lems. But it serves a further purpose that has nothing to do with which of the Shaftesbury Avenue theatres lets you set down on the right. Cabbies are by nature individualistic. Take Mike O’Connor for instance. The yearning for freedom that led him to walk away from a 20-year career in banking was also what made him embark on the Knowledge. The idea of having to take orders from a con- troller, like a minicab driver, is anathema to the average cabbie, and yet once they accept you as a fare, they are contractually obliged to take you where you want to go. The Knowledge, then, encompasses elements of breaking a horse. “You’ve got to be of strong mind,” says O’Connor, who was shocked by how hard he found the “appearances,” the series of oral exams at the Public Carriage Office in Blackfriars to which candidates must arrive suited and booted, and address examiners as sir or ma’am. There will be always that one examiner who’s really out to get you going, explains Baxter. The satnav, trying though it is, teaches none of this. In fact, you’ll find few unequivocal supporters anywhere in the taxi trade. Addison Lee will not hire a driver without prior minicab experience, and Ilford-based Leon Gold, who has worked as a self-employed private hire driver for eight years, says he gener- ally knows a faster route than his satnav. “It assists but it doesn’t replace experience,” he adds. But if there’s one thing that must haunt cabbies during slow time, it’s software advances that seek to exploit experience. Add- ison Lee has its own dedicated team of 16 software engineers working out of an office inR ussia. One, says marketing manager Alastair Laycock, is the progeny of Soviet space programme engi- neers. By tracking drivers as they move around the city, they’ve pooled half-a-dozen years of data with the aim of extracting the optimal route at any given time of the day. “Satnav technology is never going to replace a really good driver but you can use technology to share the knowledge of the very best drivers,” Laycock explains. The main challenge at the moment, he admits, is what to do when road closures throw the inevitable spanner in the works. This is where the enduring strength of the Knowledge lies. Watson may have triumphed in Jeopardy! and computers regularly beat us on the chess board, but the city is profoundly human. Though the Knowledge focuses on the material fabric—the bridges and bars and one-way streets— what it provides is a mechanism for coping with the humanity of the metropolis, that rogue element so prone to causing street clo- sures and tailbacks at inexplicable hours. As the cabbie O’Connor says, “London’s alive, do you know what I mean?” In Will Self’s 2006 novel, The Book of Dave, a cabbie’s diary becomes a bible in post-apocalyptic London 500 years hence. While the technology that gave us satnavs has been ground to dust, hymns are strung together from Knowledge factoids. It might not last quite that long, but a London in which a hi-tech gizmo trumps what lies between a cabbie’s two ears is likely to be one in which cabs fly—or are at least self-driving. 52 prospect october 2012 allis T © Justin © Show me the money Want a loan? Forget banks—there’s a revolution in easy cash sam knight

ugust 2007. That is when it began, in the unassuming 60m credit cards and an average unsecured debt (on our cards, in queues outside Northern Rock. Those lines were the our overdrafts) of just over £4,000 each. We leverage. We play the first intimation of how the banks would come to fill game. We see what we can get. our minds, would become the symbol and substance And yet, as consumers, we are curiously passive. Despite the of so many things that are wrong. encouragement of campaigns such as “Move Your Money,” which AHalf a decade has passed, and what has changed? There was invokes Gandhi (“Be the change you wish to see in the world”), the emergency: the bailouts and the part nationalisation of RBS. fewer than 1 in 20 customers swap banks each year, compared to 1 But our collective response seems to have been the construction in 3 who swap their car insurance. Instead, we carry out all of our of a logical trap, in which banks have been cast as both sinners transactions, all our individual hedges and wheezes, in one of the and saviours, saboteurs and engineers of the recovery that we still most concentrated, least competitive banking sectors in the world. await. They must be more prudent—but they must lend to get the Between them, the “Big Five”—Barclays, Santander, RBS, Lloyds economy going again. They should never have given us all such and HSBC—warehouse 80 per cent of Britain’s current accounts, easy credit—but they must not touch our mortgages. 66 per cent of our mortgages, 60 per cent of our personal loans That contradiction runs through Britain’s relationship with and 70 per cent of our business lending. These institutions could banks. More than 90 per cent of us have a bank account—com- not be more familiar, but we definitely don’t like them. Analysis pared to less than 75 per cent in America—and almost 70 per cent this summer of customer satisfaction of 48 European banks by of us own our homes, more willing to take mortgages than our fel- Forrester, market researchers based in the United States, found low Europeans. In a nation of 60m, we have 71m current accounts, Britain’s banks in the bottom five places. What are we waiting for? Perhaps it is the revolution in lending that is now underway, Sam Knight is an associate editor of Prospect triggered by the 2007 crisis, generating a new way of thinking prospect october 2012 show me the money 53

the word “bank” can mean. The most conspicuous new players are payday loan compa- nies; to many, they are the most unsettling. They do what their name suggests: provide short-term, unsecured loans, normally of a few hundred pounds, to tide people over until the next time money comes in. They are offspring of the pawnshops and cheque- cashing stores of small, poor, American towns. The first SU chain got going in Tennessee in the early 1990s and “payday” compa- nies arrived in the UK around the turn of the century. In 2006, they had just 300,000 customers, mostly using small, shop-like operations. Since then, fuelled by investment, often from the S U , and the foul winds blowing through the British economy, the payday phenomenon has taken off. Fed up with bank charges for unau- thorised overdrafts and apparently scared of the open-ended obligations of credit cards and store cards, the British public, especially young workers earning less than £25,000, have turned in huge numbers to payday loan companies for short-term cash injections. The last widely accepted estimate for the size of the industry was in 2009, when 1.2m customers borrowed £1.8bn, but the only thing that people agree on now is that those numbers are too small. The Office of Fair Trading, which issues lending and debt collecting licences, doesn’t know how many payday loan com- panies are operating in the UK. There might be as many as 200. These lenders have met a need—for unsecured lending—that the banks don’t want to meet and which will soon become even less attractive with the introduction of new regulations. The compa- nies themselves reckon they are now providing up to 4 per cent of Britain’s consumer lending, or £8bn a year. The two that I went to see, Wonga and MEM Finance, which operates the brand “Pay- dayUK,” claim a million customers each. In the US, payday loan companies offer their services explic- about how to borrow money—from organisations that look noth- itly to the country’s “unbanked” and “underbanked” population. ing like banks. Entrepreneurs, venture capitalists, even anthro- In the UK, the market has been historically served by pawnshops pologists, are turning their energies to the question. “There is this and doorstep lending, itself dominated by a single company, Prov- huge thing going on,” one told me, “a very basic theme, which is ident Personal Credit: “The Provvy” to its customers. What is dif- that people are losing trust and satisfaction with banks and with ferent about the current incarnation of payday lenders, above all financial services and they are willing to try new things.” Many of the online firms, is that they are tech companies. these new things are not even that new, with their origins in the Step forward, Wonga. The company’s catchy, almost provoca- dotcom boom, the 19th century co-operative movement and the tive name; its ubiquitous adverts (puppets of old people, jiggling “sub-prime” communities of the American South. But this reces- about to music); and its evident success—Wonga makes 300,000 sion, with its shortage of credit, its surfeit of dismay towards the loans a month at a startling representative annual percentage banking hegemons, has provided the ideal circumstances for them rate (APR) of 4214 per cent—have made it the place to start for finally to prosper. attacks on the payday loan industry. Behind the screed of bad pub- Late in the summer, I went on an informal tour of these licity, however, a new kind of financial services company is trying upstarts. None of them were banks. Nor would they want to be. to emerge. “The day job is having to defend 4200 per cent APR, For now, most of them are focused on Britain’s £200bn market which is rather tedious,” Henry Raine, Wonga’s head of regula- of consumer lending—the vast banking undercarriage of credit tory affairs, told me. “What is really interesting to me is the intel- cards, overdrafts, car financing and personal loans.T heir label, if lectual journey of where this is going to lead to. Because this is just they have one, is “Alternative Lenders.” But this hides their vari- the start if we get it right.” ety. Some of them are online, and take at least a few minutes to Wonga is run out of two Georgian townhouses in Camden, understand; others are as straightforward as could be—look at the north London. I met Raine at the York and Albany, a Gordon hundreds of cash shops opening on our high streets. Some have Ramsay pub and hotel that functions as its de facto executive can- social missions, others are determined to become the new multi- teen. Wonga’s South African founder and CEO, Errol Damelin, national financial services companies. All are driven by new tech- was eating his breakfast at a table outside in the sunshine. Dame- nology, new norms of behaviour and the emerging needs, some lin’s initial pitch for Wonga, a 20-slide presentation, without a sin- of them depressing, of our 21st century lives. All of them are cur- gle line of computer code to back it up, is a legendary event in rently specks next to the “Big Five.” Many will fail. alternative lending. In 2005, he approached Balderton Capital, But some will work. And if they do, they might just have the a venture capital firm known for its investments in online busi- power to remake the way we look after our own money and borrow nesses such as Betfair and Bebo, the social network, with the idea other people’s. They could also recast our understanding of what of a website that would offer small loans and transfer money to 54 SHOW ME THE MONEY prospect october 2012 customers’ accounts within 15 minutes. Britain’s banks thought he The Wonga dream is not the only imaginative response to Brit- was crazy. (Wonga’s first line of credit was from theB ank of Nova ain’s hunger for credit. These are also propitious times for the Scotia.) Seven years later, doing what Damelin said it would do, UK’s historically tentative credit unions. A financial innovation of Wonga, operating entirely online, has made 5m loans and is val- the 19th-century co-operative movement (birthplace: Rochdale, ued at around £2.5bn. 1844), credit unions in their simplest form are savings clubs. Mem- The heart of the business is an algorithm. Wonga’s “Radical bers with a “common bond”—a place of work, say, or city post- Risk Engine” weighs 8,000 pieces of publicly available data about code—pool savings which then enable each other to take out loans, its loan applicants, from how long they have owned their car to the typically at interest rates of 2 or 3 per cent a month. When the bad-loan rate of their neighbourhood, in nine seconds. It combines union turns a profit, everyone gets a dividend. Over the last 150 that score with behavioural indicators from the website (how long years, the model has taken off around the world, in many countries applicants hover over particular questions, or change their mind becoming a kind of parallel retail banking system, offering mort- about how much money they want) and makes a decision. If things gages, life insurance and current accounts. In the US, 40 per cent check out, the customer gets the amount they asked for: the aver- of the population are members of a credit union, in Ireland, 70 per age loan is £255 for 16 days (which costs £301.61). They can pay cent. In Britain, with its Big Five, just 1.5 per cent. back early if they want to. A fast-growing 1.5 per cent, all the same. Identified by Labour Taken as a whole, Wonga’s service is one that Britain’s high in the 1990s as a vehicle for encouraging saving in poor commu- street banks, with their doddery computer systems, could not nities, credit unions have been in a phase of creative destruction offer even if they wanted to. T“ hey can’t do it,” said Raine, simply. since the start of the banking crisis. Membership has rocketed, Every new IT malfunction, like the one that locked 17m RBS and from 650,000 to 1m in the last four years, while the number of Natwest customers out of their accounts in June, is a reminder of unions has fallen sharply in a wave of mergers. Earlier this year, the decades-old systems clunking away in the big banks. “We use the government got behind the movement, passing legislation that the software that banks would like to use,” as another alternative lender told me. This emphasis on using computing power to deliver new kinds of discrete, fast financial services—more app than bank—is what interested Wonga’s investors, more than the interest rates. “When Errol came into us, we saw more of a consumer internet business than a banking business,” said Barry Maloney, a Balderton part- ner who heard the initial pitch. Wonga plays to a smartphone, have-it-now generation. It is popular among taxi drivers, and sole traders, for whom cash is always a day away. In May, it began offer- ing fast-turnaround business loans. “There are companies where you think this vision is so big it could be anything,” Maloney told me. Raine talked about the “Wonga dream”: “Eventually, that you could do everything if you want to, through Wonga.” For all its smarts, though, it is hard to get past the idea that the real animus behind payday lending is financial hardship. “Customers aren’t coming to us just because they are back- lashing against the banks,” said Raj Singh, the chief executive of MEM Finance, which will reach £500m in lending this year.. loosened the “common “The first thing is demand.T hey have a need.” The rise of payday bond” requirement and lending in the UK is also the story of the flatlining of the nation’s allowed credit unions to wages. In its 2012 survey of the consumer credit market, PwC vary their charges. The found that 26 per cent of people aged 25-34 (the main group Department of Work turning to payday lenders) had used credit to pay for essential and Pensions has put up items in the last six months. Two out of three thought they would £38m to further mod- be able to pay it back. ernise and rationalise the sector and there is an ambitious plan to Although the big payday companies insist that they do not lend connect credit unions through the Post Office. to people who cannot afford it, the sector is undergoing its third One morning in August, I went to Leicester to visit Clockwise, review in as many years by the Office of FairT rading, mostly for one of the new breed of credit unions. Twenty years ago, it was targeting vulnerable customers. Singh told me that MEM turns run by the congregation of Sacred Heart, a small Catholic church down 90 per cent of its loan applications, but admitted that it only in the city. Now, with its headquarters in a converted noodle res- turns a profit on a customer’s third payday loan. When I went to taurant, Clockwise has 7500 members, a staff of 18 and processes see Gillian Guy, the head of Citizens Advice, she told me about a loans in 48 hours. When I arrived, just before lunch, the place was client with 19 concurrent payday loans and her conviction that the faintly uncanny. Outside there was the Clockwise logo, an owl, and only way the companies made money was by encouraging custom- inside, what seemed to be a not-quite-realised version of a generic ers to “roll over” their loans and interest for months at a time. But bank branch. It was like the set of TV show. Or a pop-up. Too beige Guy saw all too well the power of the payday idea: the speed, the and ungarish somehow. “Is this a bank?” A woman wearing dark sense, not always justified, of control in borrowing £100 and pay- glasses said loudly. A cashier asked her to join the queue. ing back £129.95 at the end of the month. “Once it is out of the Upstairs, Jo Purdy, Clockwise’s manager, described the credit box,” she said, “it’s not going back in, is it?” union’s tense circumstances. On the one hand, it was growing fast. prospect october 2012 SHOW ME THE MONEY 55

In the push to modernise, it was conducting more and more of its since the 1970s, payday companies have an acronym, ALICE, for business online, and was one of 25 credit unions in the country to their customers: Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed. offer a current account. What’s more, the credit union ethos, with On my visit to MEM Finance—which last year was taken over an emphasis on human contact and a sense of community endeav- by the Dollar Financial Group, a US payday giant—Raj Singh our, was striking a chord in a city fed up with its banks. “There spoke about serving a British demographic that will be here long is a huge change going on at the moment in the way that people after the economy picks up. “What is sub-prime anymore?” he think about money,” said Purdy. “There is a feeling among the asked. “Our customers are earning twenty-odd thousand pounds credit union movement that this is our time.” (The feeling is con- a year. They are professionals. They have a bank account. They tagious: a credit union for Kensington and Chelsea will open later are sub prime all of a sudden because they’re maxed out on their this year, and the Bishop of Durham is working with the Centre for credit card, or the bank has refused their overdraft. B[ ut] that is the Study of Financial Innovation, a London think tank, to inves- just how people live now. It’s tough out there. Let’s accept it.” tigate the possibility of setting up credit unions in the north east.) Short on time, digitally savvy and fighting their own multi- front war with the rising cost of living, what Singh’s customers wanted, he said, were financial products they could largely design themselves. Unlike big banks, which have spent the last genera- tion mass-producing mortgages and savings products (under Fred Goodwin, RBS had a department called “Manufacturing”), com- panies like MEM were preparing for an individualised future of financial services. As Singh put it: “I don’t like A, B or C. I want Z.” Accustomed to the flexibility, and cost, of payday lending, this is how his customers, now in their twenties, might one day expect to borrow for a house, or car. “Everything is going to be tailored, going into the future,” said Singh. “And that means you need data at your fingertips every minute of every day. And that is what we do, we live and die by our data. We are ahead of the game.”

t his most evangelical, Singh sounded like someone run- ning a peer-to-peer lending platform. “P2P” companies are the smallest units in the non-banking insurgency— they will lend just £150m in the UK this year—but they Ahave its biggest idea. They use the internet to match people who want to save with people or businesses who want to borrow. Stand- ing on the shoulders of eBay and Betfair, the betting matchmaker, P2P companies are online markets. They check the credit rating of those who want to borrow; spread lenders’ money across hun- dreds of loans to reduce the risk of non-repayment; and chase bad debts, taking a small fee for their services. “At present, these com- Online money, from left, Abundance, Wonga.com, Funding panies are tiny,” said Andrew Haldane, the Bank of England’s Circle and Zopa. The sector lends 4 per cent of consumer loans executive director for financial stability, in a speech in June. “But so, a decade and a half ago, was Google... The banking middle men At the same time, however, the very demand that Clock- may in time become the surplus links in the chain.” wise was eager to meet was also threatening to put it under If payday lenders like talking about quick loans to fix your water. What members were asking for, Purdy explained, car, people at peer-to-peer platforms prefer subjects like Carlota were small loans, in the payday range of £50 to a few hun- Perez’s theory of technological revolutions. “Schumpeter’s waves dred pounds. She was keen to issue them, but it was hurting of creative destruction?” said Giles Andrews, who runs Zopa, the the credit union. Each £50 loan brought in just £1 in inter- UK’s largest P2P platform. “She took that to the next level.” est but cost £60 to process. At the other end of the scale, mean- We were talking in Zopa’s offices, just north ofS oho, in London. while, members were either cutting down on the larger loans (the The company was set up in 2005 by a group of emigrés from Egg, credit union makes money on loans of over £500) or failing to pay the online bank of the late 1990s. (Andrews, whose background is them back. A series of large defaults earlier in the year had already in selling cars, did the initial fundraising.) The idea was to create wiped Clockwise’s hopes for a profit in 2012.E xpansion, heady as an online bond market for personal loans. For three years, Zopa it was, was mightily painful. “You can tell from the way I’ve been struggled to attract customers. Trusting strangers online to sell talking to you, this is great,” said Purdy. “This is what we want to you a t-shirt is one thing; trusting them to repay £7000 in £215 achieve. But on the other hand it is causing us massive problems.” monthly instalments over three years is something else. But the Credit unions have political support. They represent a genuine banking crisis has altered our sense of trust. The first wave of new seam of solidarity in hard times. But their survival and develop- Zopa customers in 2008 were savers, interested in the 5 to 8 per ment depend, ultimately, on their members’ finances returning cent interest they could earn. Then came the borrowers, either to their “normal,” pre-recessionary health. What I found strik- rejected, often just repulsed, by their banks. After matchmaking ing about payday loan companies, by contrast, was that they seem £25m in loans in its first three years of business, Zopa brokered built for a future that looks a lot like the present. In the US, where almost £200m in the three that followed. It will grow another 50 low and middle incomes have now been stagnant, in real-terms, per cent this year. The site has 700,000 members. 56 show me the money prospect october 2012

Although they are the smallest and most esoteric players in ‘No. It’s always going to be a sideline.’ It is very hard to predict the non-bank uprising (they are, for now, unregulated), peer-to- quite which of those is correct.” However, if peer to peer does prove peer platforms somehow manage to convey the greatest threat to to have mainstream appeal—particularly in establishing a sense of our idea of what our banks might be. They have certainly enjoyed social benefit between lenders and borrowers—Roxburgh said he the most straightforward boost from the atmosphere of dysfunc- could see no reason for banks not to build platforms themselves. tion on the high street. “Was it a surprise that June and July were “I don’t think it is anti-bank in any way.” great months given Mr Diamond and Libor and HSBC?” asked For now, though, P2P sites enjoy their rebel status. On the last Andrews. “This year, the anti-bank tone has changed somehow in stop of my tour, seeking out ever more daring non-banks, I ended my mind; it is more personal.” up in Shepherd’s Bush, in west London. On the second floor of a Part of the power of Zopa and its main rival, Ratesetter, is that tatty office building containing a language school and overlooking they compete directly with established lenders. Unlike payday a hand car wash, I came across the office of Abundance, another companies, which essentially try to sell new kinds of loans, and lending platform, this time enabling savers to invest in renewa- credit unions, which are figuring out how to grow and stay alive ble energy developments. Abundance is the brainchild of Bruce at the same time, P2P companies try to take profitable business Davis, another Egg exile, who helped Zopa develop its brand. The from banks. The conventional wisdom is that banks start to turn idea is to use the internet to allow tiny contributions to the build- a profit on personal loans of more than £7000.B ecause they are ing and owning of infrastructure—from wind farms to, one day, online, have no deposits, and are set up to process loans as cheaply roads and schools. The site allows individuals to chip in to commu- as possible, P2P companies can beat that. The average Zopa loan nity-scale green energy projects—starting at £5 a go—and take a is £4800. Andrews, the car man, likes to compare P2P companies cut of the revenue they generate over the next 20 years. Davis calls to Kwik Fit, which stole the profitable-tyres and exhaust market it “democratic finance.” Up and running since July, Abundance from traditional garages. Right now P2P companies have around has 1000 members and a wind turbine in the Forest of Dean. It is 1 per cent of Britain’s £23bn personal loan market, and are grow- regulated by the FSA. ing, as a sector, at 100 per cent a year. “I believe that peer to peer Davis is an anthropologist by trade. He was on the phone when lending will ultimately—and I don’t know how long it will take, five I walked in, talking a new member around the website. Before to ten years—do the majority of unsecured personal lending in this working for Zopa and setting up Abundance, Davis spent years country because it is a better product,” Andrews said. studying people’s behaviour inside high street banks: how the con- P2P’s biggest grab, though, is for the lost social purpose of our fident became shy, how the otherwise sceptical never questioned banks. When I talked to Zopa customers, they all spoke of the new that these institutions are the only place to store our wealth. “It is imagined community they had joined. A couple who had borrowed only in the last 100 years that we have allowed private banks to be money to buy a new car told me about the online avatars of the the way that we think about money and the way that we deal with 190 people they were now paying back. Janet Carr, a retired trade money” he said. “Banks like to own that whole relationship, which union representative who lends money on the site, said: “I like the is a bit like saying, ‘Let’s just give BT ownership of the internet.’” fact that my money is actually going out and helping someone, Davis paused. “What democratic finance is is that you take control rather than some huge business or whatever. It might sound a bit of money by taking decisions about where money goes.” naïve but that is what I like about it.” Then Davis started telling me about Abundance, the intricacy This is the vacuum, part financial opportunity, part social heal- of its debentures, webcams and feed-in tariffs.B ut I realised that ing, into which peer to peer entrepreneurs are now pouring. Fund- the single tenet connecting everything that he said—and which ing Circle, a site set up to channel loans from individuals into the connected Zopa and rest of the peer to movement—was that the UK’s small businesses, has brokered £47m in the last two years. most hopeful consequence of the great failure of our banks is not Samir Desai, one of its founders, came up with the idea when the that they will be swept away. Nor that they will be reformed. But private equity firm he was working for was considering buying that we will all, in time, become banks ourselves. Northern Rock. He saw close-up the misery of high street banking for small companies. “If ever there was a market that needed to be disrupted it was business loans,” Desai told me. This autumn, Funding Circle is expected to become one of the main beneficiar- ies of the government’s decision to invest £100m through alterna- tive lenders, including P2P platforms, into small businesses. If it comes off, the Department ofB usiness will become just another— albeit massive—lender on the website, contributing a small pro- portion of every loan, earning interest like you or me. The government was persuaded, in part, to dip its toe into peer- to-peer lending by a taskforce of financial industry grandees, led by Tim Breedon, the chief executive of Legal and General, which reported in the spring. Their recommendation was a sign that P2P was not just a beautiful theory. “These peer-to-peer models have got beyond the flakey, they’re-never-going-to-fly stage.T here is now some very smart money and some very smart executives committed to making them work,” Charles Roxburgh, a McKinsey director and member of the taskforce, told me. “You would expect them to be passionately committed and believe they are going to “The biggest threat to our lifestyle is take over the world. You would also expect the incumbents to say other people wanting our lifestyle” %$77(56($%$77(56($ +$0367($'+$0367($' 3$5.3$5. +($7++($7+ /21'21/21'21 /21'21/21'21 ²2&7²2&7 ²129²129

EdvardMunch

28 June – 14 October 2012

TATE.ORG.UK SOUTHWARK / BLACKFRIARS FIND US ON FACEBOOK/TATEGALLERY FOLLOW US ON TWITTER @TATE

Sponsored by The Munch © (detail) Museum / 1927

The Girls on the Bridge &217(0325$5<$57 –  Media partner Edvard Munch $))25'$%/($57)$,5&28. The Munch – Ellingsen Group, BONO, Oslo/DACS, London 2012

LQGG  58 prospect october 2012 My day of definitions Dictionary: [noun] book containing information on a particular class of words, names or facts edward docx

t’s dawn chez Docx and I am lying in the sumptuous Arca- Bladder Diplomacy A ploy to extract a concession from the dia of my private apartments wondering how best to carry other party in a discussion. The hapless visitor is plied with out the Herculean labour with which I have been tasked: drinks until he feels constrained to agree to the point at issue namely, to review the packed and teeming 1480 pages of in order to excuse himself. The ruse was notoriously resorted the 19th edition of Brewer’s Dictionary of Phrase and Fable. to by President Hafez al-Assad of Syria (1930-2000) who, IFor those unfamiliar, this gargantuan work was first compiled by in an apparently generous gesture, offered his guests small a certain Dr Ebenezer Cobham Brewer and published in 1870. cups of black coffee to this end... And it contains within its monumental covers the definitions- of, the explanations-as-to, the derivations-from-which, the sur- Already fascinating. I pop down the seat, wash my hands and mises-about, the references-to, the anecdotes-concerning and switch on my phone. the curiosities-pertaining-to pretty much… well, every phrase and fable ever used in this great language of ours. The mother of iPhone see iPod all bastards to review, in other words. iPod The “I”, which may be short for Internet, was inher- Worse, in recent days, I have been lamenting out loud the ited from previous Apple products (eg iMac), while “Pod” cloth-ears and clacking-tongues of many of my fellow crit- stands for “personal on demand”… Apple has faced several ics, who seem not to have studied either the language or litera- law suits from its rival companies… and in the course of one ture of their chosen report—indeed, seem to have little interest legal wrangle, they filed documents acknowledging that the or regard for writing at all—and, instead, measure all works on technology behind the device had, in fact, been invented one of two criteria: “likeability” for fiction and “approachabil- by a British man, Kane Kramer, in 1979. However, when ity” for non-fiction. At root, my complaint has been about a lack Kramer was unable to secure his funding to renew his pat- of engagement. But how, then, can I (from atop my high horse) ents, the technology became public property. effectively engage with this monstrous work now so fatly disport- ing itself on my bedside table? I had no idea! I thought pod because somehow pod-like. Poor The hour strikes seven. Enter wives, children, supporters, ret- Kramer. But what a great name: Kane Kramer. I run the cold inue and the rest. Tumult and confusion, joy and tears, laugh- tap to brush my teeth but already my phone is buzzing. Aha, it’s ter, plans, hopes, kisses, bouncings, bundlings, obtuse reports, a reminder I have set myself to book tickets to an upcoming per- obscure reprisals, tellings-off and eggings-on. And then amidst all formance of the Allegri Miserere at St Martin’s in The Field’s, this, the abundance of life, I suddenly have an idea. Yes, I must live here in London. the review! I must—quite literally—bring the book to life. My life! I extract myself from the melee, leap from the bed and thus to work. Miserere The 51st psalm is so called because its opening So: first things first… words are Miserere mei, Deus (Have mercy on me, O God). See also Neck Verse. Edward Docx is an associate editor of Prospect

All in a day’s reading: Diplomatic coffee; an anticlerical Henry VII; once pleasurable Pimlico; Hindu god Jagannath; William Gladstone; Darth Vader; prospect october 2012 a day of definitions 59

Neck Verse This verse was so called because it was the trial “Okay,” I call back to the bedroom, “but I’ll have to meet you verse of those who claimed Benefit ofT he Clergy, and if they there because I’m going to cycle today.” could read it, the prisoner saved his neck. “Well make sure you take your helmet. There was some guy mowed down outside Oval last night by one of those juggernauts Benefit of The Clergy Formerly the privilege enjoyed by the in the bus lane.” English clergy of trial in an ecclesiastical court, where pun- ishments were less harsh than in secular courts and bishops Juggernaut A Hindu god, whose name is an alteration of could not impose the death penalty… steadily curtailed from Hindi, Jagannath, from Sanskrit, Jagannatha, “lord of the the time of Henry VII. world.” The name is a title of Vishnu… The chief festival [in his honour] is the car festival when Jagannath is dragged “We have to be at the solicitors for nine,” comes an authorita- in his car, 35ft square and 45 ft high, over to another tem- tive female voice from back in bedroom. “Apparently, they need ple. The car has 16 wheels, each 7ft in diameter. The belief to prove who we are before they can do the conveyancing for us.” that pilgrims threw themselves under the wheels of the car “Where is it?” in order to go straight to Paradise on the last day of the festi- “I told you. Their office is just over the river—in Pimlico. We val is largely without foundation… can walk together.” I emerge from the bathroom—clean teeth and Brewer’s under Pimlico Formerly the pleasure gardens of Hoxton [where my arm—to the clamour of a thousand requests. But first I the name] is said to derive from Ben Pimlico, a local brewer need my tea—I cannot function without tea—ideally Darjeeling and tavern keeper famous for his nut-brown ale. A tract of Makaibari Second Flush Grand Reserve FT. 1598 (Newes from Hogsdon) has: “Have at thee, then, my mer- rie boys and hey for old Ben Pimlico’s nut-browne ale.” [Ben Stimulants of Great Men Pimlico] apparently settled just south of the site occupied Bonaparte took snuff. by the present Victoria Station… [However] Professor Rich- Lord Byron took Gin and Water. ard Coates, in the US onomastic journal, Names (Septem- Lord Erskine took large doses of opium. ber 1995), plausibly shows the name “Pimlico” to have been Gladstone’s restorative was an egg beaten up in sherry. copied from a place in the USA called Pamlico and to be Hobbes drank cold water. linked with Walter Raleigh’s abortive Roanoke settlements Newton smoked. of the 1580’s. As such it may be the first SU place name to be Pope drank strong coffee. exported to England. In the kitchens, I find a beautiful child complaining in strident An onomastic journal! I’m stalled before the mirror. Isn’t that...? terms about his brother’s sudden proprietorship of a certain I quest the hinterlands of a pan-European vocabulary. Surely an figurine. onomastic journal would be, in other words, a wanking maga- “But that’s not his toy,” says he. “That’s mine.” zine? Or am I getting confused? “What is his toy?” I enquire. “The Darth Vader one.” Onan A son of Judah who was ordered to marry his late broth- er’s wife. In order to avoid fathering children on his broth- Star Wars The [name of] the villainous Darth Vader may er’s behalf, he resorted to coitus interruptus (‘spilled it on suggest “Death Invader,” but was intended to mean Luke the ground’)… for which sin the violently pro-life God killed Skywalker’s “Dark Father”… The first name of the youth- him (Genesis 38: 6-10). Hence onanism as a synonym for this ful hero evokes Greek leukos, light… [And] the name of the technique, as well as more generally for masturbation. ancient knighthood of the Jedi is based on that of Jed or Jed- dak, the lords of Barsoom in Edgar Rice Burroughs’s A Prin- Aha! So, not an onanistic journal—which would, I suppose, quite cess of Mars. literally be a magazine featuring masturbators or, at least, coi- tus interruptus-ers—but an onomastic journal, which would be Father—Vader: of course! But Edgar Rice Burroughs—I would a magazine dealing with the study and origins of proper names. never have guessed! I restore order vis-à-vis the toys. But An easy mistake to make. SIOB—WTF?

Diplomatic coffee; an anticlerical Henry VII; once pleasurable Pimlico; Hindu god Jagannath; William Gladstone; Darth Vader; a “Puffing Billy” steam engine; Roman goddess Ceres; Sellotape, not to be confused with condoms; the iPhone; the Grey Man of Ben Macdui 60 a day of definitions prospect october 2012

Internet Slang and Acronyms The child’s mother appears, holding a jiffy bag. SIOB: sharp intake of breath. “It’s very steamy in here,” she observes. WTF?: what the fuck? “Climate change,” I venture. “Your bicycle helmet is in the pantry,” she says. “Have you seen The kettle is going like billy-o for some reason and filling the the Sellotape?” room with a dense scalding vapour. We’re all going to die in here. Ah, yes, I see what’s happened: last night, some idiot (me) must Sellotape A name used for any “sticky tape” but one that have taken off the lid in order lazily to start defrosting a pint of properly belongs to the British company who first marketed frozen milk by balancing it in the steam so as to supply some- it in 1937. The name is based on “Cellophane,” but with the one in the house with a bedtime drink. And now the kettle can’t C changed to an S for purposes of trademark recognition. A switch itself off because said lid was not properly closed. famous US rival is Scotch Tape. See Durex.

Like billy-o The word has been derived from the following (1) Durex The proprietary name of a well-known make of con- Joseph Billio, rector of Wickham Bishops, Essex… the first dom. The name, presumably based on “durable” was regis- Nonconformist minister of Maldon (1696), who was noted for tered in 1932 and was coined by A. R. Reid, chairman of the his drive and energy; (2) Nino Biglio, one of Garibaldi’s lieu- London rubber company, its manufacturers. The name is a tenants, who would dash keenly into battle shouting “I am potential pitfall to Australian visitors to Britain since in their Biglio! Follow me, you rascals, and fight likeB iglio!” (3) Puff- home country “Durex” is the equivalent of “Sellotape.” ing Billy, an early steam engine, so that “puffing like Billy- o”... None of these is particularly likely, and the more prosaic I need now to take my tea, evade the gathering numbers in the truth may be that “Billy” is simply the pet form of the name kitchens, wash, dress and enquire of my secretaries what is William, used here as a substitute for the devil. required of me. Also, my head is starting to swell slightly and it’s leaning a little to one side as if in thrall to some arcane malaise. On with the radio. The Tories are re-shuffling themselves. This must be what it’s like being Stephen Fry. “Are you in this evening?” Tory (Irish “toraighe,” “pursuer”) The name applied in the “No.” I reply. “I’m playing Bridge.” 17th century to Irish Roman Catholics outlaws and bandits who harassed the English in Ireland. In the reign of Charles Rubber In whist, bridge, or some other games, a set of three II (1660-1685) the name came to be an abusive term for sup- games, the best of two of three, or the third game of the set. By porters of the crown … extension, in cricket, the term is applied to a test series where the number of matches is odd or even. Its origin is uncertain Cereal. but may be transference from bowls, in which the collision of two woods is a rubber, because they rub against each other. Cereal The word first appears in English as an adjective meaning “relating to the cultivation of grain”—an allusion to The clock on the landing indicates seven thirty. I had planned the goddess Ceres. to do a day of this. So, roughly 16 and a half hours to go. I’m flagging… Ceres The Roman name for Mother Earth… She is called I look up “flagging.” There’s plenty under “flag” but no pre- the corn goddess who had a daughter by Jupiter, called cise explanation as to the phrase “flagging.” Presumably, it Proserpina. comes from raising the white flag. I look up “white flag”—but find no confirmation there. I feel a sudden liberation. I’m just The weather, we’re told, is going to be grey. going, quietly, to stop. The 19th edition of Brewer’s Dictionary of Phrase and Fable is out now; it’s very approachable. Grey The Grey Man of Ben Macdui A giant shadowy presence that haunts the higher reaches of Ben Macdui, the highest moun- tain in the Cairngorms… In Gaelic, he is referred to as Fer- las Mor. One of the most famous reports of the Grey Man was given several years after the event (and it is thought reluc- tantly) by Professor Norman Collie, by then a veteran moun- taineer and, what is more, a distinguished scientist with a reputation to lose. He had been nearing the summit on a misty grey day when he heard behind him footsteps heavier than any human would make. When he stopped, the steps stopped too. The steps came closer and closer, and then a shadow, far taller than a man, appeared in the mist. Other reports speak of pur- suing footsteps for every two or three of the hearer’s steps… All agree the experience was utterly terrifying. Alistair Borth- wick recounts [asking locals] in Always a Little Further… had they seen Ferlas Mor? “They looked at me for a few seconds, and then one said ‘We do not talk about that.’” The Small Businessman A new learning resource from Routledge

Featuring articles and books discussing: + The Presidential Candidates + Domestic and Foreign Policy + Defence and Security + US Economy + Presidential Campaigns + Past Elections VISIT: bit.ly/routUSA2012

To explore the research collection today

Routledge Politics @Rout_PoliticsIR

*GTQGUQH5EKGPEG V[0Q 9KNMKPU$GTPCN/GFCYCT.GEVWTGD[ &T4QIGT*KIJƂGNF5EKGPEG/WUGWO)TQWR 4GIKUVGTGF%JCTK 9GFPGUFC[5GRVGODGTROsRO 6JG4Q[CN5QEKGV[s%CTNVQP*QWUG6GTTCEG .QPFQP59;#)

5EKGPVKUVUNQXGVJGO*KUVQTKCPUQHUEKGPEGECPoVUVCPF VJGO6JGXKGYVJCVUEKGPEGTGUVUQPVJGUJQWNFGTU QHJGTQGUCPFQPVJGOCNQPGECPPQVDGFGHGPFGF 0QPGVJGNGUUUEKGPEGUVKNNPGGFUVJGKTKNNWOKPCVKPIUVQTKGU VQGPICIGYKVJVJGRWDNKE0QVQPN[UJQWNFYGTGKPUVCVG VJGJGTQGUQHUEKGPEGYGPGGFQVJGTMKPFUVQQsJGTQGU VJCVCTGPQVGXGPOCFGQHƃGUJCPFDNQQF

(QTOQTGKPHQTOCVKQPXKUKV TQ[CNUQEKGV[QTIGXGPVUJGTQGUQHUEKGPEG

LQGG  62 prospect october 2012 Science & technology © nasa ©

makes them—us—conscious, they can look The twin child of the Big Bang out in wonder at the universe, and build In the first moments of the universe, matter overpowered antimatter, machines that can revisit our origins in the Big Bang. Out of this has come an astonish- its mirror opposite. We may soon find out why, saysFrank Close ing discovery. Matter is not the Big Bang’s only child. It was born with a long-lost twin: All cultures have wondered about their result of energy being converted into sub- antimatter. origins. Modern physics posits that space stantial forms. We know how the energy in Matter and antimatter are the yin and and time were born in the Big Bang, some the heat of the Big Bang created the basic yang of reality. When an infant on the sea- 13.6bn years ago. Science gives no definite seeds of matter, and how over the eons these shore digs a hole in wet, hard, flat sand to answer for why that event occurred, but particles have formed galaxies of stars, build a sandcastle, the castle is a metaphor observations with powerful telescopes and including our own Milky Way and solar for matter and the hole for antimatter. When experiments at places like Cern, the par- system. the energy of the Big Bang congealed into ticle physics laboratory near Geneva, give Here on Earth, clusters of septillions the fundamental particles of matter, an us a good understanding of what happened of atoms are able to think, and although imprint in the form of metaphorical holes, next. We know that matter is, in effect, the they are not yet able to comprehend what their antimatter siblings, was also formed. prospect october 2012 science & technology 63

The rays of the Sun are in part the result of world around us to the galaxies, appears to the basic seeds of matter that we know. To positrons—the positively charged be the debris of an even grander creation. every variety of subatomic particle, nature antiparticles of electrons—that were Did some mutation occur in the imme- is forced also to admit a negative image, a annihilated 100,000 years ago diate aftermath of the Big Bang whereby mirror opposite, which follows the same the metaphorical material sandcastle no strict laws as conventional particles. The While all the evidence points towards longer quite fit into antimatter’s hole? Is the simplest example, and in 1932 the first to this being how matter was born, it raises apparent duality between matter and anti- be discovered, is the positron, which is the a paradox. The transmutation of radiant matter an illusion? This is currently one of positively charged antiparticle of the ubiq- energy into matter and antimatter, which the biggest questions in cosmology. Physi- uitous negatively charged electron. occurred in those first instants of time, cists are excited that clues are beginning to Thousands of metres above our heads, is not a one-way voyage. When played in emerge from experiments at Cern’s parti- high-energy torrents of subatomic par- reverse order, the meeting of any material cle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collider ticles from outer space are crashing into substance with its antimatter doppelgänger (LHC). the upper atmosphere. It was in these leads to mutual annihilation; the sandcastle “cosmic rays” that the positron was first refills the hole, perfectly. When antimatter o begin to understand antimatter, sighted. The positron was not an extrater- destroys matter, the energy that was pre- let’s first take a voyage into ordi- restrial invader but had been created in viously trapped within them is liberated nary matter, such as ourselves. the atmosphere by cosmic radiation itself, as radiation. In the dense cauldron of the Our personal characteristics are when energy, released in violent collisions, infant universe, such collisions would have codedT in DNA. These are miniature hel- is transformed into new particles of matter been very common, and the newborn mate- ical spirals made of complex molecules, and antimatter, most commonly electrons rial would not have survived long. Yet the which in turn are made of atoms, the small- and positrons. universe has survived, and appears to be est pieces of an element—such as carbon or made of matter, such as the familiar stuff hydrogen or oxygen—that can exist and still “Is the apparent duality which makes air, rocks and living things, retain the characteristics of that element. between matter and and not antimatter. Antimatter also consists of molecules Antimatter is real. Scientists have made and atoms, which at first sight are no differ- antimatter an illusion? a few thousand atoms of anti-hydrogen, ent from ordinary ones. Atoms of anti-car- This is one of the biggest although none of them lasted very long bon would make anti-diamond as beautiful before being annihilated by their surround- and hard as the diamond we know. Anti-soot questions in cosmology” ings. If you were to see a lump of antimat- would be as black as soot, and the full stops ter, you wouldn’t know it; to all outward in an anti-magazine the same as those you The energy released in some forms of appearances it looks no different to ordi- see here. If we could enlarge the dots of this radioactivity also can produce positrons. nary stuff. However, touching some would magazine to be 100 metres across, we would This is what happens in the heart of the sun, be lethal, as atoms in our hands would be be able to see the individual atoms of carbon which, in the course of converting its hydro- destroyed completely, and anything of us within. Were we to do the same to an anti- gen fuel into helium, courtesy of fusion, that remained would be irradiated with magazine, we would find that atoms of anti- emits positrons. Collisions with electrons the resulting gamma rays. Were there large carbon are indistinguishable from those of within the sun annihilate these positrons, clumps of antimatter in the cosmos, any carbon: even at the basic level of atoms, mat- giving rise to gamma rays—light with very interstellar material that hit them would ter and antimatter look the same. high energy—which are scattered so much lead to mutual destruction, leaving behind Atoms are very small, but they are not as they rise to the surface that it takes them these tell-tale gamma rays. No such signals the tiniest things, and to see the difference a thousand centuries to get there. By that have been seen, which suggests that anti- between matter and antimatter, we must time they have lost most of their energy and matter galaxies do not exist. enter the atom. Each atom contains a lab- they emerge as sunlight, visible to our eyes. The vanishing of antimatter is the yrinthine inner structure. At the centre is a The rays of the Sun are in part the result greatest disappearing act in history. The dense compact nucleus, which accounts for of positrons annihilated 100,000 years ago. material universe that survives today con- all but a trifle of the atom’s mass. Here on Earth, many unstable nuclear tains the remnants of a great annihilation While enlargement of our ink-dot to isotopes can produce positrons as easily between antimatter and matter, which was 100 metres is sufficient to see an atom, as they can produce electrons. The major one of the first events after the Big Bang. you would need to enlarge it to the size of practical difference between the two possi- The intense radiation that ensued—a fee- the Earth if you wanted to see the atomic bilities lies in what happens next. bler replay of the original Big Bang—has nucleus. The same is true for anti-dots and An electron may flow as electric current cooled for billions of years, and today forms anti-atoms. But the constituents of atoms or join in the dance of planetary electrons the ubiquitous microwave background radi- and anti-atoms are different. in neighbouring atoms, later to initiate ation, at a temperature just three degrees The first clues to the existence of this chemical reactions and countless other above absolute zero, or minus 270 degrees weird counterpoint came not from exper- adventures in the future of the universe. A Celsius. Astronomers have measured its iment, but from beautiful mathematical positron by contrast finds itself surrounded temperature, and, by knowing how fast the patterns discovered by the English math- by matter containing hordes of negatively universe is expanding, can play back his- ematician Paul Dirac in 1931. Dirac was charged electrons. Unless some specially tory on their computers. This confirms that attempting to marry Einstein’s theory of designed combinations of electric and mag- around 13.6bn years ago the universe was special relativity with the ephemeral world netic fields steer it away from its material indeed so hot that matter and antimatter of uncertainty that rules within atoms. As surroundings, the positron and an electron would have formed from the radiant energy. crotchets, minims and semiquavers on a in its vicinity mutually annihilate in a flash Our observations and experiments are all stave are mere symbols until interpreted of light. This has become the key to the consistent with this theory, but we remain by a maestro, so can arid equations mirac- practical use of positrons, notably in medi- unsure on one thing: how did some matter ulously reveal harmony in nature. Dirac’s cal diagnostics. survive the great annihilation? equation leads to an astonishing insight: it If a patient ingests some liquid con- Everything that we can see, from the is impossible for nature to work with only taining traces of radioactive atoms that 64 science & technology prospect october 2012 LIBR A RY PH O T c er n/ SC IE NC E LIBR A RY; PH O T BIR M I N GH AM / SC IE NC E O F © commons; U N IVER S ITY commons; ©

From left: Paul Dirac; the tracks of electrons forces are present, but with their polarities matter has been detected there, in contrast and positrons moving through a hydrogen- reversed: north poles become south; to the abundance of individual positrons neon bubble chamber; the path of the Large positive charges become negative. Such a and antiprotons, which are created by the Electron-Positron collider (LEP) at CERN swapping of charges turns what we know collisions in the atmosphere. as matter into what we call antimatter. Perhaps these anti-elements, ejected by emit positrons, the subsequent annihila- Whereas atoms consist of lightweight anti-stars, have been destroyed en route? tion of those positrons within the patient’s electrons, negatively charged, whirling While this is possible, there is no evidence body can be a life-saving diagnostic. By remotely around a compact massive central for it. There would be distinctive gamma surrounding the patient’s head with a halo nucleus of positive charge, anti-atoms ray bursts coming from the annihilation of cameras, which record the result of the have their nucleus negatively charged, of positrons by electrons in the interstellar positron annihilation, images of the brain surrounded by positrons. medium, and the annihilation of anti-pro- can be built up. This technique is known There seems to be no reason for nature tons also would give themselves away. as positron emission tomography, or PET. to prefer one choice—matter—rather than All of the evidence suggests that every- The particular isotopes of interest tend to the other—antimatter. Dirac summarised thing hereabouts is made of matter. How- be rather short-lived, but can be made in this enigma on receiving his Nobel Prize in ever, there is still a lot of unexplored space small, customised particle accelerators, 1933: “We must regard it rather as an acci- where antimatter could dominate. As the which are housed in or near to the medical dent that the Earth (and presumably the universe expanded and cooled after theB ig centres. Thus Dirac’s arcane prediction of whole solar system) contains a preponder- Bang, could matter and antimatter have antimatter is today being used to save lives. ance of negative electrons and positive pro- become separated into large independent tons. It is quite possible that for some of the domains? arge particle accelerators, such stars it is the other way about.” Although possible, no completely sat- as the LHC, can make intense If we were to look into the night sky at isfactory model of such a universe has yet beams of high-energy particles, those stars, some made of matter, others of been developed. Most physicists suspect whose collisions with targets antimatter, there would be no way of distin- that there is some subtle difference between ofL material simulate those of the cosmic guishing them. However, we can infer that the way that matter and antimatter behave, rays. Such experiments have produced not they are made of matter, albeit indirectly. and that this enabled some matter to sur- just positrons, but also antiprotons and When stars explode, their bits and pieces vive the great annihilation. antineutrons—the antimatter counterparts are ejected into space which, if trapped by Hints that matter and antimatter are of conventional atomic nuclei. As the famil- the magnetic arms of our planet, crash not simply yin and yang emerged dur- iar particles—electrons, protons and neu- into the upper atmosphere as cosmic rays. ing the 1990s at the forerunner of the trons—combine to build atoms and matter, Had an anti-star exploded and perme- LHC, the Large Electron Positron col- these contrary versions can make struc- ated the cosmos with anti-elements then lider (LEP), where magnets steered beams tures that at first sight appear to be the these also would be present in the cosmic of electrons and positrons along a tunnel. same as normal matter, but are fundamen- rays, but no anti-elements have turned up The positrons sped around the 27-kilome- tally different. so far. Searches for antimatter in the rays tre ring beneath Swiss vineyards and mag- Inside atoms we find swirling electric are being made by experiments in a balloon netic fields steered electrons and positrons currents, powerful magnetic fields, that floats to the edge of theE arth’s atmos- on the same circular paths but in opposite and electrical forces that attract some phere above the South Pole; and out in directions. A small hollow tube in the centre things and repel others. Within atoms of space, sensitive particle detectors in a sat- of the magnets was home to a vacuum bet- antimatter, identical currents, fields and ellite are taking readings. However, no anti- ter than that in outer space, lest the circu- prospect october 2012 science & technology 65

The month ahead ANJANA AHUJA

There is a great earthquake belt that stretches from the Mediterra- nean through the Middle East into cen- tral Asia, where people are funnelled away from mountaintops and inhospi- table deserts, towards settlements at the feet of mountain ranges. These villages, with access to water and trade routes, are sprouting into megacities—with the potential for a massive loss of life as tec- tonic plates shift. James Jackson, who heads Cambridge University’s Earth Sci- ences department, will spell out the pos- sibility of a future catastrophe at a 16th October seminar run by the university’s Centre for Science and Policy. lating current of positrons collide with and matter today. be destroyed by a stray atom of air. At four Somewhere in the first moments of the In 2010, the coalition government points, small pulses of electric and mag- universe, earlier than the billionth of a sec- recommended that British scientists netic forces deflected the beams slightly ond that was studied by experiments at the should dream up at least three new space so that their paths crossed. Occasionally a LEP, an imbalance between matter and missions, to start by 2030. On 12th Octo- positron and an electron made a direct hit, antimatter must have arisen. The LHC at ber, the Royal Astronomical Society will leading to their mutual annihilation in a Cern can simulate conditions within a mere thrash out what those missions should be. flash of energy. trillionth of a second after the Big Bang. If Scientists from the University of Leices- That was the key moment. In a small this includes the instant when antimatter ter, along with researchers from private region of space the conditions were simi- disappeared, the LHC should reveal how. companies such as Surrey Satellite Tech- lar to those in the universe within a micro- These are early days for the LHC, if not nology, are among those contributing. second after the Big Bang. By seeing what for the universe, but tantalising results are The game plan is for the UK, which is forms of particle and antiparticle emerged beginning to emerge. As data accumulate, rather good at building space technology, from this simulation, scientists learned how the experiments at Cern will reveal sharper to corner 10 per cent of the world space energy was first converted into substance in images of the processes at work in the market; it currently has 6 per cent. the real Big Bang of the early universe. immediate aftermath of theB ig Bang. Why Highly complex pieces of electronics the Big Bang happened is likely to remain Environmental scientists are bracing recorded the emergence of these primeval an enigma. Why the universe managed to themselves for bad news when the final pieces of matter and antimatter. They survive, and evolve, may soon be answered. extent of Arctic melt is revealed later this confirmed that the basic particles of matter Frank Close is a professor of physics at the month. In late August, the amount of ice and antimatter formed in matching pairs. University of Oxford in the region hit a record summer low of Experiments have shown that quarks 4.1m square kilometres; melting season are the basic seeds of matter as we know it. hadn’t even finished.T he National Snow There are also exotic forms of matter, con- and Ice Data Center in Colorado, which taining what are known as strange, charm will release the figures, says the surviving or bottom quarks, which rarely exist inde- ice is getting thinner year on year. pendently, except under very special con- ditions, such as briefly during or just after A sunny outlook for Buckinghamshire the Big Bang. They are unstable and their on 4th October, as the Royal Society decays produce the stable forms from begins a two-day international conference which our mature universe is made. The on how to handle uncertainty in weather LEP produced and studied these. The and climate prediction. One highlight: a results showed that although the initial pro- discussion of whether listeners can han- duction of matter and antimatter balances, dle probabilistic forecasts. A coincidence when the exotic forms decay, the progeny of that the meeting takes place 25 years to the antimatter versions do not precisely bal- the month after the Great Hurricane of ance those of their matter siblings. This is a 1987? Liz Howell, head of BBC Weather, proof that matter and antimatter can have is among those fishing for wisdom. subtle differences, but it does not seem to “I can remember when all this was just Anjana Ahuja is a science writer explain the large-scale dominance of stable a quark-gluon plasma”

Natural gas – abundant, flexible and central to meeting Europe’s energy needs and challenges

A world leader in natural gas www.bg-group.com

Total Politics_275mm x 210mm_Jan12_v1.indd 1 10/01/2012 17:18 energy 67 Special report Dieter Helm: the great gas debate Malcolm Grimston: stay loyal to nuclear Sam Fankhauser: the forces against wind Daniel Guttmann: solar’s bright future October 2012 What is Britain’s new plan? The discovery of abundant, cheap gas has made wind, solar and nuclear power look less attractive. But how will it alter the government’s strategy to get clean energy? The great gas debate It is an attractive resource now, says Dieter Helm—but in the long run? New gas discoveries have been so significant that they have already begun to transform global energy supply. A shale gas revolu- tion has taken place in the United States. New resources have also been unearthed in Argentina, Russia, China, Australia, the Middle East and Europe. Add in coal bed methane (on a potentially very large scale) and now shale oil, and an era of abundance of both gas and eventually oil may be upon us. We are not going to run out any time soon: indeed, from a climate change per- spective, the problem is that we have too many available fossil fuel resources. Unsurprisingly, politicians and energy policymakers are scrambling to keep up. All sorts of surprises are turning conventional wisdom on its head. The US has amongst the fastest falling carbon emissions among the major economies—unlike Europe, whose emissions are no longer falling much, if at all. The US is switching from coal to gas so quickly that its coal production is being dumped on world markets, driving down the coal price and hence increasing coal’s role in Europe’s electricity markets. The US has

© alamy © abundant quantities of gas, which is being 68 energy prospect october 2012

used as a direct fuel for transport and even bottles. What projected it to the forefront There were serious worries that North Sea for turning into conventional liquid fuels. was the discovery of natural gas in the gas should be husbanded for the petrochem- In Britain, denial—the classic reaction North Sea. The state owner, British Gas, ical industry, and up until 1990 burning it in to change—is well entrenched: from claims converted appliances to natural gas, built power stations was banned. The dash for gas that gas prices will remain linked to oil and the new pipelines and managed the contrac- in the 1990s was deemed so risky as to merit that oil prices will keep rising; to the notion tual relationship with the offshore compa- a moratorium in 1998. Now the secretary of that shale gas will not be developed here; nies. In the space of a decade, a remarkable state frets about gas price volatility and the through to the surprising idea that the eco- transformation was effected. exposure of Britain to what he believes may nomic effects will remain within the US and It wasn’t until the end of the 1980s, with be ever-higher gas prices. will not be felt elsewhere. Yet people who the privatisations of both the gas and the The new world of gas is disruptive, and think along these lines are having a tough electricity industries, that gas moved from will need policy changes. Since it is becom- time. The Treasury is determined to open being a premium fuel for industry and a ing more secure than oil as a fuel source, and up the gas question; the government has ini- domestic heating fuel, to being used to potentially much more cost competitive, the tiated a “Gas Review” with a view to iden- generate electricity. In 1990, coal made up problems with gas are largely environmen- tifying obstacles to further investment in nearly 80 per cent of electricity generation, tal. Gas is a fossil fuel. It might cause around gas-fired power stations; and the fourth cli- with nuclear at about 20 per cent, and gas at half the emissions of coal, but a decarbon- mate change budget has been opened up close to zero. In just two decades gas moved ised economy cannot have much gas on its for review. For wind and nuclear, any notion centre stage and now produces over 40 per energy systems, unless carbon can be cap- that they would become cost competitive cent of electricity. tured and stored by carbon capture and stor- against gas in the next decade now looks At every stage of this remarkable trans- age technology (CCS) on a large scale. questionable. formation there have been doubts about the There are, broadly, three possible pol- Until the end of the 1970s, gas played lit- reliability of supplies and fears about prices. icy options. The first is simply to let it hap- tle part in Britain’s energy mix, and to the Every time the scale of the resource has out- pen: let the market decide. The case for this extent it did, it was coal based, or came in shone even the most optimistic forecasts. laissez-faire approach would be that gas

Nuclear Politicians must back the best long-term option Malcolm Grimston

Before the recession it all looked quite clear—11 sites, subsequently reduced to eight, had been identified for new nuclear plants. The assumption was that all active nuclear stations, amounting to some 10,000MW, would be replaced by 2025. There was every prospect of further expan- sion after that. In the late 1990s, 30 per cent of the UK’s electricity came from nuclear— to return to that level would have required the construction of some 21,000MW of new capacity by 2030, representing around 13 reactors. At about £5bn a throw that was a lot of investment, and three consortia were vying for the contracts. On the surface, government policy has not changed—it is still as confused as ever. to, then what? ity including nuclear, then what happens? In a single interview in June, Ed Davey, Nuclear economics are hugely front- Will the government abandon carbon tar- Energy and Climate Change Secretary, loaded. Most of the cost of nuclear electric- gets and allow a second dash for gas (prob- made two incompatible statements: “Brit- ity goes on building the plant and servicing ably the only thing a pure market would ain could survive without nuclear power,” the capital, while for CCGT (Combined contemplate building in current circum- and “Nuclear power is an essential part of Cycle Gas Turbine) the costs are dominated stances), or will it abandon its market man- the country’s energy mix.” Like its prede- by fuel, the stations themselves being rela- tra and ensure the construction of nuclear cessor, the current government sometimes tively cheap and (vitally in a marketplace) power and renewables (and will Europe let speaks as though its job were to under- quick to build. CCGT is much more flexible it)? Although David Jones, the new Welsh write low-carbon power supplies; at other in output than nuclear or renewables and Secretary, is a passionate supporter of new times it lays that responsibility on the mar- relatively uncontroversial in political and nuclear power station at Wylfa, Charles ket. So the government will not “subsidise” public perception terms. As problems with Hendry’s departure from the Department nuclear power; instead it finds a definition financing renewables and nuclear capacity for Environment and Climate Change in the of the word “subsidy” that omits guaran- have grown, so gas has looked more attrac- September reshuffle may be less good news teed power prices and a floor price for car- tive, even discounting shale gas. for the low carbon—and nuclear—lobby.

C ruz/ S uper St ock bon emissions, both of which are designed The crunch is coming. If the Electricity Malcolm Grimston is associate fellow of the to encourage the market to invest in low-car- Market Reform draft bill does not deliver Energy, Environment and Development bon energy. But if the market does not want a vast amount of new low-carbon capac- programme at Chatham House © Francisco © British industry. Powered by Norwegian gas.

Gas production from the Norwegian Continental Shelf can supply British industry with reliable, cost-efficient energy for decades to come – and resources are available today. Be enlightened at goodideas.statoil.com. There’s never been a better time for good ideas. hroe gvn ht h gvrmn is government the that given Furthermore, coal. for required being are as age requirementsforcarbon capture andstor tion to imports. hasmoved outofenergy intensive produc consumptionbonit goingbeenasup, has ing itself that it is making progress: its car otherEuropean countries deludbeenhas y iheig h eisos perform emissions standards(Eance the tightening by done be could This gas. against ricades will soon be crossed. 1990s,and the major threshold of 400ppm (ppm) globally, up from about 2ppm in the now rising at an alarming 3 parts achievedper1990, sinceemissionscarbonaremillion been has much Nothing change.climate anydoingelseoneiscase,muchno about andpossibly someenvironmental good.In and so in the short term will do little harm, anywillinreplacecase coal, quiteoflot a degrees warming. Worse, scientistspotentiallyresultinwillsay two many that threshold the is 400-450ppm and 270ppm, about at werecentrations tive,before the Industrial Revolution, con 70 become almost carbon-free. havewillelectricity totarget,generation this reach to that clear makes ernment, the gov the Change, advises that body Climateindependent on Committee the by Analysis budgets. carbon datory man of series It a through so 2025. do to plans by emissions its gas halving greenhouse to committed has UK The Sam Fankhauser restrictions and scepticism An industry buffeted by Wind Thesecondoption puttotheup isbar o u tee ubr it perspec into numbers these put To P O B S), applying the sameapplying theS), ritain has added about years few last the ver 0M o onshore of 600MW B id aaiy a capacity wind ritain like many year. O ffshore ------“The challenge climate requires a more nuanced and hence morenuancedhencemoreandrequires a also objectives, but policy the achieve to a U-turn. on the economy more generally would force ably revolt against the bills, and the impact before this happens, consumers would it probwill encourage industry to leave. theUS (and much of the rest of the world) and by increasing the competitive gap with difference to tainly will not work. It will not make much cer almost it that coal”—is fromnuclear might be called “straight to renewables and gas as well as coal—all before 2030. out squeeze nuclear, andrenewables and plyexclude gas. This would simmake room couldfor it legislation, (EMR) Reform generation through its new Energy Market proposing to intervene directly in electricity nhr wn ad h cs o offshore of of cost the impact and wind environmental onshore the about the concern of been always tone has the There debate. in change a been has increased. has planningconsentget takes to it time per centin the of onshore case 50wind) and the around (to fallen have projects has constructionnew for approval ratesyear wind past the over for but difficult, been always process planning The already under development. are 11GW of total a provide to level of 6.4GW to 27GW currentby 2020. its from capacity wind increase to governmenthopes The 2011. in added ing from a lower base. About 500MW was wind is on a steeper trajectory and is start as quickly as possible” policy is getting out of coal change poses to energy h tid pin s oh oe likely more both is option third The The problemTheapproach—whatwiththis es agbe bt ut s important, as just but tangible, Less Yetthe industryfacing is tough times. wind. hostile, perhaps as a consequence B ut attitudes have become more f h eooi situation economic the of B ritain’s carbon consumption, energy but also due to recent, to due also but B P rojects ut long - - - - n cl ivsos nre. o nerv costs. energy higher For mean investors ous nerves. investors’ objectives calm clarify and to is crucial bill therefore energy forthcoming gov ernment’s The leadership. political of lack a about concern raised has debate wider the However, costs. falling to response rational a as seen rightly was subsidies, onshore in cut cent per 10 a saw which government-fundingenergy mechanism, renewable the of review indus recent The try. wind-power apprehensive an is age is incompatible with carbon targets. for gas” without carbon capture and stor mate Change has warned that a new “dash still uncertain, and the Committee on Cli cheap gas, but its scope here in Europe is The of energy.possibilitythe bytempted is Treasury renewable to alternative cheaper a as gas shale see who those by more overt climate-change scepticism. Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change FankhauserProfessorSam the of co-director is rc o cro. f abn rcs rise prices carbon throughout If the carbon.next two decades of through price the increase to gradually is tolerated be term the carbon emissions from gas cannot down. The way to them signal closing slowly that measures in otherthe mediumand true of coal now, but is it That has used. not be stopped continue to will stationsE gas built,thethat,once is risk later?The gas of out transform to then How fixes. short-term plausible other no are there gap with more gas. coalstations as fast as possible, and fill the lignitecoal power stations, we which should close Germany, incredibly unlike is now building several So very dirty emissions. gas is in the short term significantly reducesonstrated in the US, switching from coal to warming.dem ofAs lot a todoomed are sible.Unlessexitthere anfromcoal,is we pos quicklyas as coal of outget to need thatclimate changeenergy toposestheis overwhelmingly challengeThe important work. not does storage and capture bon twodecades and then contraction,a ifcar anexpansion of the role of gas for the envisagesnext This approach. policy difficult h rsl o te egtnd debate heightened the of result The The government has been lobbied hard n te niomn a Lno Sho of School London at Environment the and This is only a short-term fix, but then but short-term fix, a only is This Economics and Political Science p p r r o o s s p p ect ect o o ct ct ob ob er er 2012 2012 P - - - - -

S - - -

© rebell

72 energy prospect october 2012

Solar in excess of present Germany levels—Ger- A bright future beckons many is the leading global market with a long history of strong solar policy. Daniel Guttmann A lower level of capacity of 11-15GW by 2020, however, does appear feasi- The UK solar panel market has gone ble, assuming stable and supportive gov- through a number of well-publicised ernment policies and that there is some upheavals over the past two years. Never- restraint by developers of large ground- theless, it has grown from 30 megawatts mounted systems. Domestic, commercial (MW) of installed solar energy capacity and ground mounted solar energy systems in 2010 to just shy of 1.5 gigawatts (GW) will all have to play a role in this. If the gov- today. This was driven by a huge effort on ernment pulls the plug on even one of these the part of UK industry; long gaps between segments, then the outcome might differ. announcements of reductions in govern- Further positive factors will be the suc- ment tariffs and their implementation; and cessive tightening of building codes, the significant falls in solar equipment prices introduction of the Green Deal—the coa- of around 20 per cent per annum. lition government’s energy efficiency ini- At the end of 2011, solar energy tiative—and continually falling system accounted for just under 1 per cent of the prices. Grid parity, where the cost of gen- UK’s electricity generation capacity. Ear- erating solar electricity equals the cost of lier this year, the Department for Energy conventional electricity to the consumer, is and Climate Change increased targets target of achieving 22GW by 2020 feasi- expected in the UK within this decade. for solar capacity from 2.7GW by 2020 to ble? This target may be challenging for a Therefore, despite difficult beginnings, 22GW (although this was later lowered to number of reasons. the solar sector in the UK has a promising a more likely scenario of12GW). A level of 22GW of solar energy by 2020 future, and while further difficulties along Solar energy clearly has a role to play would account for almost all non-tradi- the road may not be avoidable, the technol- in the UK’s energy mix and can contrib- tional sources that are likely to be added ogy does have the potential to become more ute strongly towards decentralised, clean over the next decade. It would also consti- than a trivial part of the UK’s energy mix. energy generation at domestic, commer- tute 20 per cent of UK generation capac- Daniel Guttmann leads PwC’s renewables & cial and industrial levels. However, is the ity and imply a watts-per-person level far cleantech strategy practices © adamkaz ©

the introduction of credible carbon pricing dered intermittent too. Gas stations cannot demand side, through to batteries and stor- mechanisms, by 2030 gas will only be able rely on running continuously, for when the age and a host of new generation technolo- to compete in the face of the carbon price if wind blows, the marginal cost of energy is gies, including next generation solar. emissions can be captured—if not, the rising zero and it therefore forces everything else The trouble with this approach is that it price of emitting carbon will squeeze it out off the system. The result is to ration off gas. poses our politicians two unpalatable chal- of the system. The big difference between That in turn undermines the gas power sta- lenges: forcing the electorate as energy con- EPS and the credible carbon pricing is tion supply contracts and their economics. sumers to pay the full costs of their carbon that the latter allows for flexibility whereas The way around this is to recognise that, addictions; and facing down the powerful EPS is a top-down rule, introduced now in having fixed everything else, gas power sta- lobbying groups that promote renewables, ignorance of how the world will be in 2030. tions will only be built if they too are offered nuclear and other technologies and which The debate is now politically polarised. some form of fixed contracts. Once govern- want to avoid competitive bidding against On the one hand, offshore wind and nuclear ment starts intervening, it tends to intervene a carbon price. It would also require poli- are threatened by cheaper gas. Indeed gas more and more. Hence the gas review, and ticians to get serious about research and to has all but ruled out nuclear in the US. Sim- the idea that there must be special capacity fund it properly. ply chanting “wind good, gas bad” end- contracts for gas. Dieter Helm is professor of energy policy at the lessly, and prophesying ever-higher fossil Government determination—the Gos- University of Oxford and author of “The Carbon fuel prices looks increasingly futile. Worse, plan, Soviet-style approach—looks like the Crunch: How We’re Getting Climate Change Wrong and How to Fix it” (Yale University Press) it isn’t doing anything to address global way Britain is going. The results are unlikely warming. In Germany the Greens have to be good. Yet it does not have to be like this. reaped what they have sown: now there will The alternative is to take a more intelligent be more coal to replace the nuclear and to approach to energy policy. Low carbon is make up for the intermittency of the wind. what we want, not specific technologies, and On the other hand, the gas industry the obvious way to do this is to let the car- sees a major opportunity and lobbies for its bon price go to whatever level is necessary to interests every bit as intensively as the sup- meet the path to decarbonisation through to porters of current renewables. They want to 2050, and let the market sort out how best to be left to get on with it and too often ignore do this. Then the money saved from the cur- the longer-term consequences. rent high subsidies could be devoted to the The additional problem with the lais- technological transformation that is already sez-faire approach is that it won’t actually a familiar part of the landscape of Britain’s lead to more gas. Because wind farms that laboratories. Future renewables will prob- provide intermittent energy are being built ably wipe the floor with gas: from smart at scale on the back of large subsidies and meters and smart grids turning the elec- guaranteed contracts, everything else is ren- tricity industry from a passive to an active Farsight Research

RE-SHAPING BRITAIN; THE LEVERS OF A NEW REGIONAL POLICY by Francis Knox, Published October 2011

UNSOUND FOUNDATIONS: HOUSE PRICES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN LONDON AND SOUTH-EAST ENGLAND by Francis Knox, Published 15th October 2012

ECONOMIC GROWTH VERSUS THE COUNTRYSIDE: A WAY FORWARD Effective defence of the countryside involves specifying some areas where development can take place, while strengthening and expanding protected areas. by Francis Knox, Publication 19th November 2012

THE LOCATION OF UNIVERSITIES Universities, ostensibly promoters of critical thinking, are notably lacking in criticism of some of their own RSHUDWLRQVLQFOXGLQJORFDWLRQ5LVLQJVWXGHQWQXPEHUVKDYHFRQWULEXWHGVLJQL¿FDQWO\WRSUHVVXUHRQ housing and land in London and south-east England. by Francis Knox, Publication 31st December 2012

THE AIRPORT LOCATION CONTROVERSY Large airports are the biggest single site employers and employment is their most important economic effect. Controversies about Heathrow and Gatwick are therefore largely about whether London should continue to expand, with loss to the rest of the country and with grave environmental damage to the south-east. by Francis Knox, Publication end-January 2013

AN IMMIGRATION CONSPIRACY? Nine times out of ten, possibly ninety-nine times out of a hundred, conspiracy theories are nonsense. However the big rise in immigration since the middle 1990s may have been deliberately promoted, DFFRPSDQLHGE\DZLGHUDQJLQJFDPSDLJQWRSHUVXDGHWKHSXEOLFRILWVEHQH¿WV)XUWKHUHYLGHQFHLVWKDW nearly all public discussions of housing problems ignore or play down the role of immigrants (including RYHUVHDVVWXGHQWVDQGDIÀXHQWKRXVHEX\HUV  by Francis Knox, Publication April 2013

SUBSIDIES TO LONDON It is generally assumed that owing to more welfare recipients most other regions of the UK are subsidised by London. A different picture emerges when infrastructure spending, cultural subsidies, private VSRQVRUVKLSDQGSKLODQWKURS\DQGWKH WD[IUHH LQFRPHHIIHFWVRIKRXVHSULFHULVHVDUHFRQVLGHUHG by Francis Knox, Publication May 2013

REVISING ENVIRONMENTAL PRIORITIES It is argued that land use should become the top environmental priority, equal to and possibly above climate change

Reports are about 25-30 pages and cost £18. Payment with order, please See also the author’s blog www.bartonstacey.blogspot.co.uk; September 2012 KICK-STARTING THE ECONOMY: 1. Updating Keynes 2.Infrastructure and planning delays 3. Misreading the lessons of the three twentieth-century house building booms.

1 Wetheral Court | Alston Road, London SW17 0TS0208 672 1424 | [email protected]

Farsight Research Draft.indd 1 13/09/2012 17:31:01 © View Pictures Ltd / SuperStock rect motionusingrectforit. its function, and then demonstrates the corcleaver. Mills picks up each in turn,boninga explainsknife, slicinga knife, saw,a and a implements: of selection removed—and a animal,split lengthways, innards andhead Gloucester of side sey, southeast London. n cnetd ala ac in converted railway arch a in ing in front of a large wooden cutting block NathanMills,aka“the dismemberment, says Knowledge, not strength, is the secret to skilful B 74 utcher boy O ld B O S T utcher,”standis o pig—half an pot te lc i a is block the n he boningknifehe William Skidelsky B ermond - - - eralhoursdismembermentof aheadus. of the ish n m tre elwatnes f “ fellow-attendees of three my and most comfortable.” I use, but you can hold it whichever way feels the Jack the a series of short stabbing motions. raises“I callit in thisfront of him and brings thinit bladedown whichin curves long up a at the has end. tool”) important Mills most (“your It’s one o’clock on a weto’clockIt’sonea on P Leith on life: alarmism ork, W Japanese lessons Howling wolves R ood and whisky ipper grip,” he says. “It’s what Butcher boy P Life as the raise

74 P r” ae sev haveork” 77 S 78 75 unday,I and 76 P un - - several tongues). He unhooks two miscellaneousmore pork animal parts (a hugemore oxcarcasses, heart, as well as shelves walk-incontaining fridge, in which are hung a dozen or suspect that the experience will morebe responsible great meat-eater, fun. though alsoI havesomething withdotowanting a beto rants and, on tohis main business selling meat to restau Mills’sclasses—which he runs as an add-on longest and most intensive in London. ( baskets. meat before it ends up in people’s shopping to growing curiosity about what happens to popular in recent years, a response, I think, B mere afternoon required for porkbeef and one lamb.) takes a whole day, as opposed to the utcheryclasses have become increasingly il nw ed u it hs cavernous his into us leads now Mills C ertainly, my motives for signing up S aturdays, the public—are the prospect october 2012 october prospect T he - prospect october 2012 Life 75 sides, one of which I carry—a shade unstead- in the fridge for a couple of weeks, he tells performs a variety of quasi-mystical feats, ily—back to the block. The class is divided us, and we’ll have bacon. Next we vacuum absorbing unpleasant sulphury notes and into pairs, and each pair is allocated a side. pack the various portions and stack them rounding off rough edges in the young spirit Our project for the afternoon is to turn these on a chilled counter. It’s an impressive haul: while, in turn, imparting colour, flavour and slabs of dead animal into cuts resembling each of us will be taking home a quarter pig’s complexity as the whisky moves gently in those you’d see on a butcher’s counter. worth of meat. I’m excited by this thought, and out of the wood’s pores. The class proceeds on a watch-and-fol- though I’m anxious about freezer space, and Scotch whisky must, by law, be aged in low basis: Mills performs a series of cuts to what my (vegetarian) wife will say. oak (people have tried other woods but they his side, and we attempt the same with ours. The final task of the afternoon is sau- simply don’t work as well). The two most The process by which a carcass gets turned sage-making. To the container of trimmings common types are American oak, which is into cookable parts involves, I discover, sev- we add salt, pepper, garlic, fresh thyme and normally imported in the form of cast-off eral stages of subdivision. First each side is rosemary, and mince it all up in the enor- casks from the US bourbon industry (bour- sawn into four: back leg and thigh, front leg mous meat grinder, located inside the walk- bon distillers are only legally allowed to use and shoulder, and two portions from the rib in fridge. (The sausages, Mills explains, are each cask once), and European oak in the section—the belly and the loin. Then each easier to make if the mix is cold.) Then we form of ex-sherry casks (typically oloroso of these is parcelled up in turn, an opera- go over to the sausage-making machine and sherry, but occasionally fino orP X sherry). tion that involves prizing out irksome bones take it in turns to apply lengths of pig intes- If the whisky you’re drinking has big and cartilage, identifying and cutting into tine to the nozzle before firing the mix out notes of vanilla, coconut or bananas, then the divisions between muscles, tearing away into the casing using a thigh-operated pedal. it’s probably been aged at least partially in sections of fat and gristle, and cutting the The aim is to produce one immensely long American oak—Glenmorangie are masters resulting portions into a variety of sizes, sausage which can be twisted into “links.” in this department and their Glenmorangie from slender escalopes to hulking joints. It’s surprisingly tricky. The mix comes out Astar is a massive, creamy bourbon cask The process generates a lot of waste, but not of the nozzle with such force that the casing bomb. European oak, by contrast, tends much gets discarded. Skin is salvaged—for tends to explode and meat flies everywhere. to contribute more dried fruit and spicy pork scratchings or crackling—and we put When it’s my turn, I mess up the timing and Christmas cake flavour, beautifully typified meat and fat trimmings in a metal container, pack my casing far too tightly, and my sau- by Orkney’s Highland Park 18 year old. to be used for sausages. sages end up comically bulky. Less common in whisky production, but Butchery has a reputation—not entirely Our work done, we remove our splattered a mainstay of cognac making, is French surprisingly—for grisliness. The verb “to aprons and sit down at a neatly laid dining oak or Quercus Petra. Pitched somewhere butcher” implies brutality rather than table to a supper—which has been simmer- between US and European oak in terms finesse. Artistic portrayals tend to reinforce ing away on a convection heater—of stewed of flavour, French oak has been skilfully this: in the 1991 film Delicatessen, a psycho- lamb and mashed potato. The hours of con- employed by artisan whisky blending com- pathic butcher turns the residents of an centration seem to have engendered a fran- pany Compass Box in their Spice Tree apartment block into sausages; in Claude tic hunger, and we all have multiple portions. whisky, a bold blend of Highland malts full Chabrol’s Le Boucher, the benign-seeming In the context of what we’ve been doing, a of fiery stem ginger in syrup, silky crème protagonist turns out to be responsible for sit-down dinner seems oddly civilised, but it brûlée and a touch of soot. a horrific killing spree. Yet watching Mills at also feels like a necessary readjustment. The The rise of Japanese whisky has also work, I can’t help feeling that such stereo- bloody work of butchery, you could say, finds introduced Japanese oak, or mizunara, types are unfair. Mills, who grew up in New its justification—even its absolution—in the into whisky distilling. Expensive, diffi- South Wales and comes from a family of pleasures of the table. cult to cooper and prone to leaking, it’s a butchers, is a tall, powerfully built man with William Skidelsky is books editor of the Observer tricky wood to work with, but in the right large hands. But when he gets to work on hands it produces whiskies with an exotic, his carcass, he becomes a surgeon perform- incense-filled note.T he new limited edition ing an intricate operation. His movements Yamazaki Mizunara, or the slightly more are quick and delicate. He uses his boning affordable Yamazaki 12 year old are both knife to make small incisions rather than great examples of this. crude cuts. Knowledge, not strength, is the A bit more of a thorny issue is the whisky key to dismemberment. A butcher must be finish, where a whisky is transferred to a able to look at a carcass and know precisely Whisky second cask which has typically been used where all the bones and muscles are located, Alice Lascelles for wine, port, madeira or, occasionally, where the hidden seams are that, when cut rum, for its last few months or years of age- along, free up sections of meat. Even hack- Ageing by wood ing. Done well, a finish can add layers of ing through bone is more about technique complexity to a whisky, but unfortunately than raw power: a question of locating the Earlier this year, scientists fired molecules a rash of rather gimmicky whisky finishes a correct angle of bone to blade, and letting of unaged malt into outer space in order to few years back saw the style lose some cred- the saw do the work. explore how whisky ages in a micro-grav- ibility. But there are still some excellent It takes a few hours to reduce our sides ity environment. While we wait for the examples out there—Balvenie Portwood is to the desired cuts. It’s absorbing work, and results of that experiment back on Earth, I a dense, dark, richly fruity whisky that’s a time goes quickly. When we’re finished, I’m thought it would be a fitting moment to sip stunner after dinner, while Glenmorangie’s left with a feeling of: “How on earth did I do a dram of “Ardbeg Galileo,” a delightfully Nectar d’Or is lifted by sweet, musky cit- that?” We twine the two largest—now bone- fruity new bottling from Islay, and ponder rus notes gleaned from a final phase inS au- less—pieces from the leg and shoulder por- the wonder of wood ageing. ternes casks. tions into rolled joints (I am hopeless at Up to 70 per cent of a whisky’s flavour Before being filled, casks are “charred” knots, and take ages). Mills makes a cure comes from the cask it’s aged in. You can on the inside, a process that helps to from salt, sugar, coriander, juniper, allspice distil the finest spirit in Christendom, but caramelise the wood sugars and release an and black pepper, and we rub this over large if you age it in a lousy cask you’ll end up array of flavour compounds. The strength pieces from the belly section. Leave these with lousy whisky. This is because the cask of the char is therefore another way 76 LIFE prospect october 2012 the distiller can shape the character of a It would require some considerable tes- whisky—a dramatic example is Ardbeg ticular fortitude on the part of a car thief, Alligator, a complex, smoky vanilla whisky for instance, to drive his new acquisition named after a heavy char popular with down the high street and off to his lair with American whiskey makers. it wailing and flashing and whooping like And size matters too. A smaller cask cre- the magic harp in the fairytale. But then I ates a greater wood-to-whisky ratio, accel- thought again. Far more likely is that fel- erating and amplifying the wood’s effect on low road users would speed the thief’s get- the spirit. To see the difference try compar- away by parting to let him through on the ing standard Laphroaig 10 year old with the assumption that he’s an undercover police ultra-concentrated, sweeter opening hit of car. Laphroaig Quarter Cask. I lately found online a survey con- The number of times the cask has been ducted in New York by a league of people refilled, and the temperature and humidity determined to ban car alarms altogether. of the warehouse will also affect the cask’s Respondents were polled on whether a car behaviour. Factor in the potential effects of alarm had prompted them to take some the gravitational pull, and you’ve got a proc- action against a possible car theft—such as ess that’s one hell of a fine balancing act. alerting an owner or calling the police. Only Alice Lascelles is bars and spirits editor of five per cent said it had. Of respondents Imbibe. Her website is alicelascelles.com asked whether a car alarm had prompted them to take action against the alarm itself, 60 per cent answered in the affirmative. Many of them, it seems, called the police to complain about the car alarm. This survey was some years old but its findings, as far as I can see, will only have become more true. Leith on life So, the question presents itself: are car alarms the most useless invention in human Sam Leith history? Useless, that is, not in the general Car alarms: a modest proposal sense of ineffectiveness or superfluity— where you might bracket egg-slicers, tas- sels on loafers and parliamentary Liberal When you hear a car alarm go off, what’s Democrats—but in the special sense of the thought that comes immediately to being something that actively undermines your mind? The answer to that will vary its own ostensible purpose. (Actually, par- quite widely with circumstance. If you’re liamentary Liberal Democrats may deserve lying in bed beside a window above the car recategorisation here—but let’s not get in question, you’ll think, as you hear your side-tracked.) one year old wail: “Not again! Every time One would be over-hasty to draw that a drunk staggers down our street, does he conclusion; the history of counterproduc- have to bump into that same car?” If you’re tive human inventions is inspiringly rich. brakes and rollbars tend to overestimate the just settling down to your first drink at There are the safety demonstrations on effectiveness of all these features and there- the bar before Sunday lunch, you’ll think: aeroplanes—which effectively hypnotise fore drive like complete maniacs. “Yikes! I left the youngest child in the car, entire planeloads of people into main- I was once cornered at a party by an didn’t I?” If you’re a temporarily brain- taining completely empty folders in their academic specialist in risk (professors of damaged Bez-alike on your way home from brains marked “What to do in the event of risk, in my experience, are exactly the sort an eight-hour session in a Vauxhall psy- hearing the words ‘Brace, brace’.” There of people who corner you at parties) who trance club, you’ll probably think: “Choon!” are open/close buttons on the remote argued that the way to reduce road fatali- The one thing that, for a certainty, you controls for DVD players. And so on. ties to near zero would be to put a gigantic will not think is: “Goodness! Some ne’er- Car alarms are certainly in contention, sharp spike sticking right out of the steer- do-well is trying to make off with a nearby though—easily holding their own, thanks ing wheel of every new car and pointing at motor: I must immediately either confront to the glorious purity and simplicity of the driver’s chest. It would, certainly, con- him or summon the police!” There may their uselessness, against flabby, gone-to- centrate the mind. have been some distant time in which such seed old contenders like democracy or the That, also, suggests a solution to the a thought was the natural one—a time, per- war on drugs. car alarm problem. Don’t have car alarms. haps, comparable in duration to the time Car alarms are an elegantly effec- Have car bombs. Thief breaks window... between the Big Bang and the formation of tive advertisement for the law of unin- drunk cyclist crashes into door... careless the first atomic nuclei. But it’s long gone. tended consequences. It’s suggested, inter parent leaves child in car... and BOOM! The wailing of a car alarm, if anything, alia, that people with car alarms are more Mark my words: after a few regrettable might now be presumed to be marginally rather than less likely to leave valuables vis- sacrifices (and, personally, I can live with helpful to a car thief. From a distance, he ible believing that the car alarm protects the odd crater in St John’s Grove—people will be taken for an embarrassed car-owner them; and, in consequence, more likely to drive too fast down there anyway) we’d have frantically trying to deactivate his car be robbed. a world of careful parents, nimble drunks alarm, and the sound of breaking glass etc This is a cousin of the perverse yet com- and fewer car thieves. And we’d all be sleep- will be covered by the electronic whooping. pelling argument that every advance in ing through the night. It did occur to me, briefly, that perhaps automobile safety makes cars more dan- Sam Leith is author of “You Talkin’ To Me? the deterrent effect might come in later on. gerous. People with airbags, seatbelts, ABS Rhetoric from Aristotle to Obama” (Profile) prospect october 2012 LIFE 77

One of the world’s rarest hunters, the Ethiopian Wolf, is critically endangered

from cattle dogs is a big problem,” replied Allu, contemplating the skull before wrap- ping it for later study. Approaching the evening’s camp at Rafu, basalt pillars erupted from the plain, some ranked in defensive formations, oth- ers stacked as cathedral organ pipes. The camp crew had already pitched the tents and were busy tending horses and preparing din- ner. Arriving, we threw off our packs and lay down. But as daylight faded, the otherworldly aspect of Rafu demanded investigation. Carefully we climbed truck-sized boul- ders, jumped small ravines and squeezed through rocky crevices, occasionally looking down onto pools fringed by brilliant green ferns. Emerging by an abandoned herd- er’s hut we were immediately distracted by a shout. “Behind you, behind you…” In the distance a figure waved and called from the highest lava pinnacle. By his jacket I recog- nised Allu, and though his initial words were lost, the second time there was no mistaking, “Behind you… there’s a wolf.” We turned and from a hundred metres our gaze was met with equal surprise and curiosity by one of the world’s rarest hunt- ers, an Ethiopian Wolf. A male, alert and in prime condition, the wolf’s ochre flanks were picked out by low sunlight, head hanging, muzzle straining forward, scenting the air. Pausing for a moment he weighed our presence—food, friend or foe? Having decided we were an ill fit for any of these he headed upwind, trotting nonchalantly away, rarer than a tiger, Africa’s only wolf. At a time of global recession funding con- of the wolves’ habitat. Climate change has servation work is problematic. Despite lim- made cultivation at higher altitudes increas- ited resources EWCP is conducting oral ingly viable, and farm dogs transmit diseases vaccination trials against canine diseases. to the wolf population. Carefully managed wildlife tourism has Allu Hussein, a monitor with the Ethio- the potential to bring money, create jobs Travel pian Wolf Conservation Project (EWCP), and protect the species; but infrastructure Nick Redmayne had agreed to lead our 70km trek hoping to is almost non-existent and the animal con- observe and record wolves along the way. cerned little-known. With limited interven- Africa’s lonely wolf We started early, our tents shedding tion the Ethiopian Wolf can survive. Its white frost as we packed for the day’s 25km disappearance through inaction would be a “OK guys, shall we continue?” asked Allu, journey across the plateau. After a night of shameful loss. bringing our rest amid the granite boulders fitful sleep amid flapping flysheets, altitude- Nick Redmayne is a travel writer and giant lobelia to an end. Wrapping scarves induced headaches, and an inconvenient across our faces against the unrelenting wind 3am pee, dawn provided welcome respite. we struck out once more across the plain. Wind and altitude kept conversation to Ethiopia’s Bale Mountains National Park a minimum and soon our party of six was is home to Africa’s wolves. Half of the con- strung out over half a kilometre. Tawny tinent’s estimated 430 Ethiopian Wolves eagles and augur buzzards circled overhead. patrol the 850 square miles, an area twice the We ate lunch in a rare sheltered spot hid- size of Kenya’s Masai Mara wildlife reserve. ing from the now baking sun. After an hour Smaller than their European and North or so back on the trail Allu paused and knelt. American cousins, with finer features, the On the ground, bleached by the elements, Ethiopian Wolf would once have ranged lay a skeleton, an arc of vertebrae leading to D i jl over much of this eastern part of Africa. a skull. “Here it is, a wolf. See the teeth? It van Now the species is critically endangered. As was an adult.” Taking out a GPS device he the human population has increased so has recorded the co-ordinates. “What did it die

© M a rte n © demand for food, leading to the destruction of?” “Difficult to know. Canine distemper “I’m down to one cup of coffee a day” 78 LIFE prospect october 2012

nies, which provide reasonable capital pro- ments (Capita Registrars, the provider of tection and reliable dividend income. The share services, forecasts the total will rise ideal here is to buy shares in companies to £76.3bn in 2012) will represent a one- with attractive and sustainable yields and off effect as boards adjust the proportion of Investment to benefit from their “progressive dividend profits that they pay out. policy.” This amounts usually to an assur- Another factor in the increase will be Andy Davis ance from the directors that the dividend companies’ relative lack of demand for Japanese lessons will rise each year at or above inflation— investment capital to fund expansion, which most investment commentators agree therefore frees surplus cash for other pur- that large global providers of consumer poses such as dividends. Neither of these Japan is one of the most fascinating places staples, from cigarettes to soft drinks, are short-term factors that are pushing up div- on the planet. The culture, history and among the best places to look for this kind idend payments is necessarily a guide to the urban vision are all absorbing—but the of investment. future. pointy-headed finanace-nerd in me is But if we buy equities in order to bene- Instead, the judgement at the heart of the intrigued by another possibility: the chance fit from a progressive dividend policy, we’re case for buying these shares is growth. What to meet people who live and work in a place assuming that there will be sufficient eco- do I believe about this company’s capac- that suffers from the deflation that central nomic growth to allow this company to pay ity to grow? And at today’s share price what bankers in the west are working so hard to out a rising stream of dividends well into assumptions am I making? The bond buyers fend off. the future, and that even if such growth are asking these questions and Even on the most broad-brush numbers, doesn’t materialise, it is capable of appear to be arriving at pessi- Japan’s recent economic history stands out— growing faster than a moribund glo- mistic conclusions. many of its core indicators have registered bal economy and will therefore be How and why do we start extreme readings relative to other devel- able to keep its promise. and stop believing in growth? oped countries for a long time now. Inflation To some extent, grow- The Japanese have been wres- hasn’t been above 3 per cent in two decades ing demand for dividends tling with this question for over and for much of that period prices have has changed companies’ a decade. I look forward to writ- fallen or remained static. Economic growth behaviour. So some of ing further about this ques- has been weak, slowdowns frequent, and you the 12.2 per cent point tion in these pages. have to go back 13 years to find the last time increase this year Andy Davis is an associate Japanese 10-year government bonds yielded in dividend pay- editor of Prospect 2 per cent or more. As low growth and mounting debt burdens have settled across the western world, plenty of people are won- dering whether Europe might fall into the same trap as Japan. “In Japan we might find clues to why we stop believing in growth”

Preparing to visit has prompted a lot of thought about growth around the world and the bets that investors are making. A couple of things seem clear. First, the swelling numbers pouring their money into corporate bonds and bond funds are implic- itly making a powerful statement about how they view the future. The only rational basis on which to buy bonds that have already become this expensive, and whose yields therefore have fallen to such long-term lows, is that interest rates and inflation are going to stay low for a long time yet. So the rush into bonds tells one of two stories. Either investors are pessimis- tic about the outlook for growth (if they weren’t, why would they buy bonds whose prices would fall if growth and inflation picked up and interest rates therefore needed to rise?). Or they are simply ignor- ing these longer-term dangers and are set- tling for the bird in the hand: an acceptable return today, regardless of the ultimate risks to their capital. Another popular option is to invest in the shares of large, multinational compa- The Akihabara district in Tokyo: still glowing after two lost decades

80 prospect october 2012 Arts & books Rebuilding architecture 80 Jane Austen: cult leader 83 Will performance art tank? 86 Spain’s gold standard 87 The month in books 88

We are all architects now Megalomaniac building is going out of style, says Jonathan Rée. The best new design reshapes the past to fit the present

Fit: An Architect’s Manifesto gloom of 19th-century interiors, and dozens ular architecture”—buildings without ped- by Robert Geddes (Princeton, £13.95) to demonstrate the clarity and distinctness igree which, according to Rudofsky, worked The Meaning of Home of steel boats and bridges, or sunlit mod- far better than the masterpieces of the big- by Edwin Heathcote (Frances Lincoln, ern buildings of concrete and glass, not to name professionals. With that, my imagi- £12.99) mention those cool portraits of the archi- nary career as an architect came to an end. tects themselves, facing down the camera Half a century after Jacobs and Rudof- Why We Build through heavy-duty glasses. sky, architecture still has its celebrities and by Rowan Moore (Picador, £20) When I took myself off to look at Lawn its cults of personality: the sectarians of New Arcadians: Emerging UK Architects Road flats in Hampstead or the Finsbury Daniel Libeskind can still fight it out with by Lucy Bullivant (Merrell, £29.95) Health Centre I was disappointed at first. those of Frank Gehry, Richard Rogers and They seemed feebly domestic rather than Norman Foster, and the sensational Zaha When I was young I dreamed of becom- ferociously monumental, and they were Hadid proves that a woman can rise to the ing an architect. At home, I was thrilled nothing like as big as they looked in the top of the profession without any change in to discover that the enchanted places that photos. They were also showing their age: its rituals and rules. Now as then, the big shaped my life—bedroom, bathroom, liv- they had grown blotchy and grey, and in any hitters win attention with portentous pro- ing room, kitchen, attic—were no more case the sun was no longer shining. I real- nouncements, strange eyewear, and per- than spaces enclosed by bricks and mortar, ised that those much-loved books of mine sonal glamour, and they still make masses lath and plaster, joists and beams. I spent were not so much dispassionate explo- of money from projects that are too extrav- happy days taking up floor boards, pull- rations of the art of building, as bids for agant to build. And they continue to inspire ing away skirtings, and climbing out onto attention and market-share: the pioneers of shelfloads of books, bearing much the same the roof to find out how it all worked. Driv- modern design were, if nothing else, mas- relation to actual buildings as science fic- ing round in the back of the family car, I ters of modern self-promotion. tion to actual science. gave an anguished running commentary on By the time I started leafing through But the megalomaniac manner seems to the artistic sins of suburban London—pic- prospectuses for architectural training, the be going out of style. David Chipperfield’s ture windows, multicoloured paintwork, or tide had definitely turned. Jane Jacobs’s Neues Museum in Berlin is perhaps the tangles of cables and pipes—and I shouted 1961 polemic, The Death and Life of Great best of many fine galleries built in recent with delight at the occasional glimpse of American Cities, was teaching us to blame years, but its persuasive beauty arises from something elegant, disciplined and austere. the horrors of modern life on the “ration- the fact that it is not a brand new building I had a vocation for architecture because I alism” of modern architecture, and before at all, but a respectful refit of an old struc- wanted to rule the world. long all the evils of the 20th century—from ture that had been left in ruins after the As time went by I acquired a few books murderous fascism and repressive com- second world war. Or take the veteran Rob- to fill out my fantasies: Le Corbusier, Wal- munism to rapacious capitalism and lib- ert Geddes: the textbooks may define him ter Gropius, Maxwell Fry. On the whole the eral anomie—were being laid at its door. as one of the big beasts of American bru- prose did not interest me, and when I re- The great modernists turned out to be talism, but his buildings in Princeton are read it now, I can see why. Nice typogra- monsters, living in stately country houses delightfully reticent, and their permeabil- phy, and a few slogans that would lodge in while their victims were condemned to a ity to natural light means they charm you my brain (“Form follows function,” “God bleak existence in blasted parallelograms differently every time you visit. is in the details,” “Ornament is crime”)— of urban decay. My precocious collection of In his new book Fit: An Architect’s Man- but a shame about the cod philosophy, the books was rounded off with Bernard Rud- ifesto, Geddes exploits the privilege of sen- dogmatism, and the inability to sustain an ofsky’s Architecture without Architects, a iority to declare that the era of the heroic argument. The real story was told by the witty and prophetic book from 1964 that master builder is over. He looks forward photos: a few to document the cluttered extolled the anonymous virtues of “vernac- to “a more inclusive architecture,” an prospect october 2012 arts & books 81 eno & A r qui t ec u ra & Di s eno DAW © SESC Pompeia in São Paolo by Lina Bo Bardi: her work combined modernist refinement with a commitment to democratic ideals 82 arts & books prospect october 2012

altruistic approach that will look at build- ings from the point of view of all those who will be affected by them, paying attention to their diverse social, ethical and aesthetic interests. Most radical of all, he affirms that the future of architecture is not about autonomous creation out of nothing but tactful “improvement” of what is already there, and he goes far out on a limb to pay tribute to the massive but unchronicled cul- ture of sub-architectural amateurs doing up their own homes. Informal home improvement is also a theme in The Meaning of Home, an enter- taining collection of articles by Edwin Heathcote, architecture correspondent of the Financial Times. The places where we live were not built yesterday: they are, as Heathcote points out, subject to end- less adaptation, and to those who know how to interpret them, they offer an elo- quent archaeology of ourselves. We start, as a rule, by knocking at a traditional-look- ing front door, but once inside we are led through time till we reach the brave new world of a kitchen extension at the rear, with big modern windows and a futuristic array of shiny branded goods. Heathcote’s interpretations may some- times be far-fetched: must inserting a key in a lock always mean what he thinks it means, and is the newel post in the hall really the vestige of a footman waiting to take your hat and gloves? But his approach gives expression to a vital new turn in archi- tectural theory. For many decades now, lit- erary critics have been reminding us that the power of literature depends on the cre- ativity of readers as well as writers, and it seems that architectural critics are at last beginning to realise that something similar applies to architecture. In Why We Build, for example, Rowan Moore travels around the world to see how the success or failure of buildings depends on how they are used. For Moore, as for Ged- des and Heathcote, the idea of the architect as lord and master, natural soul mate of plu- tocrats and dictators, belongs to the past. In an opening set-piece he travels to Dubai and listens to the swansong of muscular modernism on the frond-shaped artificial beaches, marvelling at the tallest structures ever built, combined with the longest chains of foreclosed mortgages, not to mention an underclass of homeless immigrant workers, and dysfunctional sewers. If illusions of omnipotence are the curse of architecture, then unexpected outcomes may be its saving grace. The wonderful sky- line of New York is due in large part to the financial madness that preceded the Wall Street crash, and if Moore is right it is still too soon to pass judgement on Dubai. He tells an instructive tale of the Bijlmer hous- Top, Alejandro Aravena’s “half houses” in Iquique, Chile. Above, from New Arcadians: ing scheme, a sequence of ten-storey blocks Emerging UK Architects, Wexford County Council Headquarters by Robin Lee Architecture of flats built in the 1970s on the outskirts of prospect october 2012 arts & books 83

Amsterdam. Bijlmer was designed to pro- industrial Pompéia, which she converted with eagerness, pride and ingenuity. What vide spacious homes for respectable Dutch into a village-like communal space with a people need from architects, according families, but it soon became a dumping river and a pond and areas where old gen- to Aravena, is not a perfect building but a ground for poor immigrants with a reputa- tlemen concentrate on games of chess while framework for do-it-yourself: “Who are we,” tion for drug dealing, joblessness and crime. children play with each other or watch a he asks, “to tell people how to live?” When a cargo plane crashed into one of the puppet show. She also put in bars and a res- For young architects, these are exceed- towers in 1992, killing dozens of residents, taurant, a gallery and an auditorium, and ingly interesting times. They have been a programme of demolition was begun. added a couple of funky new blocks con- brought up to admire the great masters of But the destruction soon had to stop: to the taining a swimming pool and sports courts. modernism, but as Lucy Bullivant shows astonishment of the planners, the hungry The aim she set herself was to “honour the in New Arcadians: Emerging UK Architects, caterpillar of Bijlmer had morphed into a people, allowing them the social integration they realise that the world has changed. glorious butterfly. There were Surinamese that they deserve,” and by all accounts she They cannot expect lavish budgets, or vast temples in the blocks and bird-singing con- succeeded: 25 years on it is still buzzing and sites, or a free hand to erect lasting mon- tests in the parks, as well as a vital resi- beautiful. It offers “cues to memory and uments to extra-large egos. Much of their dents’ association and a jubilant open-air imagination,” as Moore puts it, “but not work has in fact been avowedly tempo- market, now supplemented by a six-week scripts,” and—an almost unique distinc- rary, more like theatre sets than traditional carnival that brings in hundreds of thou- tion—it looks even better in the rain. buildings—for example a three-week res- sands of visitors every summer. The life of taurant on the Olympic site (by Carmody buildings is full of surprises, not least for “Young architects Groarke), or a jokey translucent “art-wrap- those who design them. per” in Liverpool (by the Office of Subver- “There can be efficiency and wisdom cannot expect lavish sive Architecture). But the projects that in poor buildings,” Moore says; and if you budgets, or vast sites, pay most of their bills involve adding extra want to see the future of architecture you rooms to old buildings or adapting them to should not overlook the so-called slums of or a free hand to erect new uses, like the fabulous Raven Row gal- Africa or India, or the socially responsible lasting monuments to lery in a pair of 18th-century houses in Spi- buildings of South America. The architect extra-large egos” talfields (designed by 6A), or a gorgeous who comes closest to Moore’s ideal is Lina domestic conversion of a Martello tower Bo Bardi, who moved from Italy to Brazil in Suffolk P ( iercy Conner). Autonomy, it in 1946 and spent a long life trying to recon- Bo Bardi died in 1992, but she can still seems, has yielded to adaptation. cile her taste for modernist refinement with inspire. In 2001 the Chilean architect Ale- Bullivant interviews 30 up-and-coming her commitment to socialism and democ- jandro Aravena was given the task of rehous- architects in New Arcadians, asking each of racy. She wanted elegance without grandi- ing a hundred families in the desert city of them whether they think of themselves pri- osity, an architecture that could caress and Iquique where they had been squatting for marily as “thinkers” or “makers,” but Stu- encourage rather than striving to impress. many years. The budget was not big enough art Piercy offers a realistic third alternative: She knew, as Moore puts it, “that build- for houses of a kind that anyone would want today’s architects, he suggests, are nothing ings act not alone, but reciprocally with the to live in, so Aravena came up with a dif- if not talkers. They are indeed: but then people and things around them,” and she ferent idea. Instead of building complete aren’t we all? None of us can resist discuss- designed structures that would be able to homes, he would provide every family with ing the spaces we inhabit, any more than we grow old without embarrassment. She is “half a house,” comprising a ground-floor can refrain from making our mark on them. most famous for the fabulous São Paulo workroom and external stairs leading to a Architecture is losing its mystery—we are Museum of Art, whose galleries are lifted prefabricated kitchen and bathroom, with all architects now. high above street level so as not to obstruct further space on top. The families were Jonathan Rée co-edited “The Concise the life of the city. But her greatest achieve- left to build the rest themselves, however Encyclopedia of Western Philosophy” ment, for Moore, is a vast old factory in they liked, and they rose to the challenge (Routledge) Cult leader Jane Austen inspires vicious feuds among her hordes of admirers, says Richard Beck

Jane Austen’s Cults and Cultures Austen.” His argument was simple: “[Jane Almost a century has elapsed since then, by Claudia L Johnson (University of Chicago Austen’s] books are, as she meant them to but Austen lovers have not grown thicker Press, £22.50) be, read and enjoyed by precisely the sort of skins. They accuse one another of “misread- What Matters in Jane Austen people whom she disliked.” Whether this is ing” Austen, of failing to appreciate her sub- by John Mullan (Bloomsbury, £14.99) an accurate description of Austen’s own feel- tle engagement with social history, or of ings towards her imagined readership (I twisting Austen’s own necessarily perfect The Jane Austen Guide to Happily Ever After don’t think it is), “regulated hatred” is a per- novels to suit some selfish political or pro- by Elizabeth Kantor (Regnery, £16.99) fect name for the feelings Austen lovers often fessional need. In August 1995, the London bear towards one another. “Anyone who has Review of Books ran an essay by the Stanford The most entertaining episode in western lit- the temerity to write about Jane Austen,” professor Terry Castle which may or may not erature’s 200-year-long fight over who loves said Virginia Woolf, “is aware… that there have implied that Austen harboured homo- Jane Austen most took place in 1940, when are 25 elderly gentlemen living in the neigh- sexual feelings for her sister Cassandra. a psychiatrist and literary critic named DW bourhood of London who resent any slight They were publishing angry letters about Harding published an essay called “Regu- upon her genius as if it were an insult to the the piece until the end of November. lated Hatred: An Aspect of the Work of Jane chastity of their Aunts.” The year 1995 also saw the first airing 84 arts & books prospect october 2012

of the BBC’s now-canonical television adap- tation of Pride And Prejudice, setting off a renewed mania for “Janeism” that has not let up since. Now we have a new slate of books: Elizabeth Kantor’s extended dating advice column, The Jane Austen Guide to Happily Ever After; Claudia L Johnson’s rigorous his- tory of Austen fandom, Jane Austen’s Cults and Cultures; and John Mullan’s gentle and appreciative What Matters in Jane Austen? It is a varied set of works, in subject, tone, and quality alike. What accounts for all of them? The last quarter century has seen the novel’s cultural importance dwindle dramat- ically, and not just new novels. In Britain and America, the number of university students enrolled in English Literature departments has plummeted, as novels find themselves competing with new subjects like film, tele- vision, and digital media for the attentions of those students who continue to pursue humanities degrees. And yet Jane Austen remains not only well-read but culturally present and alive to an extent that other clas- sic novelists (excepting Dickens) do not. It is worth understanding why, not so much in order to appreciate Austen more deeply but in order to see what cultural life the novel may still have in it. Claudia L Johnson’s thoughtful and sur- prising history of Austen study and appre- ciation makes it clear just how long people have been making Jane Austen their own. In the Victorian era, Tories who felt queasy about the cultural effects of industrialisa- tion praised Austen for documenting a time of quiet, domestic triumph, when England’s best families “vegetated quietly on a fixed income.” In 1900, the Church of England tried to memorialise this domestic and pious version of Austen by installing a stained glass window honouring her in Winchester Cathe- dral, where she had been buried years before. interest in Austen has focused more closely After its unveiling, the Winchester Diocesan worked. It set off such a frenzy of Janeism on her literary technique than anything else. Chronicle announced that the “object of the that within a few years Henry James would “Her brilliance is in the style,” John Mul- figures and text was to illustrate the high be complaining about “the body of publish- lan writes in the opening pages of What moral and religious teaching” of Austen’s ers, editors, [and] illustrators… who have Matters in Jane Austen?, “not the content.” writing. The “moral” part is plausible, but as found their ‘dear,’ our dear, everybody’s dear, Many critics, James Wood most prominent for “religious,” apparently nobody told the Jane so infinitely to their material purpose.” among them, now ascribe Austen’s primary editors of the Winchester Diocesan Chronicle The original, early-20th century out- importance to her invention of “free indi- that Mr Collins, the stupidest person in Pride burst of Janeism may well have faded into rect discourse,” whereby the voices of a nov- and Prejudice and one of the great figures of historical obscurity were it not for an Eng- el’s characters are allowed to inflect or even ridicule in English fiction, is a clergyman. In lish tutor named Robert William Chap- take over the narration itself. Take the sec- any case, the Victorian era’s Austen did not man, who, in 1923, published Jane Austen’s tion in Emma where we are told that Emma last long. After 1914 the emphasis shifted, novels in a scholarly edition. A major event is considering how she can influence Har- and suddenly it was Austen’s detachment for Austen’s works as well as for the novel riet Smith: “It would be an interesting, and and glinting irony that people admired, as in general—it was the first scholarly edi- certainly a very kind undertaking; highly Britain’s sensibility was reshaped by horrors tion of any novelist’s works published in becoming her own situation in life, her lei- nobody had previously imagined. English—Chapman’s five-volume set made sure, and powers.” That self-regarding voice Running alongside this persistent inter- Austen academically respectable. A novel- is not the narrator’s but that of Emma. est in Austen as a model of English charac- ist’s public popularity may wax and wane, Today it can be hard to recognise particu- ter has been an obsession with the habits, but universities can ensure that a writer’s lar instances of this literary technique, sim- houses, opinions, clothes, and mysteries of long-term reputation weathers periods of ply because free indirect discourse, for many the author herself. In 1901, Constance Hill disregard. It is thanks to Chapman that people, is just what novels sound like. published Jane Austen: Her Homes and her we can consider Austen’s works, as Henry Mullan’s book is divided up into 20 self- Friends, a kind of extended literary pilgrim- James put it, “shelved and safe for all time.” contained chapters, each of them asking a

© polly becke r polly © age to the places where Austen lived and In recent years, mainstream academic very particular question about some aspect 85

man at church or on Match.com. And yet The Jane Austen Guide to Happily Ever After really does get at something that Mullan and even Johnson missed. What’s worth noticing about Kantor’s book is the way it instinctively links Jane Austen to the genre of self-help. The one thing that ties all of Austen’s major characters together, the one habit they all share, is the habit of con- stant and conscious social evaluation. Over the course of six major novels, Austen cre- ated a universe in which little judgements, reflections, and re-evaluations, both of one- self and of others, make up the very fabric of life. Emma is full of significant looks, innu- endoes, and flirtations, but the moment where you know for sure that Emma and Mr Knightley are in love—the moment when Jane Austen proves their compatibility—is the scene where they talk through and eval- uate a letter of Frank Churchill’s. (The same thing happens between Elizabeth and Darcy towards the end of Pride and Prejudice.) In other words, Austen’s major characters do exactly what self-help books ask their read- ers to do: pay careful attention to their own lives, and acknowledge the role their deci- sions will play in shaping them. Austen doesn’t do much out-and-out novels quite so moralising—certainly not as much as Dick- much? For some- ens or Eliot. Her irony leaves a lot of room thing like the beginning for argument about a particular charac- of an answer, we’ll have ter’s habits and actions. But the necessity to turn to a rather bad of making the judgements, of thinking and book about Jane Austen talking them through, could not be more and dating advice. explicit, nor more timely. Our cultural cli- Elizabeth Kantor, the mate is dominated, in part, by two forms of author of The Jane Austen entertainment which only make sense in the Guide to Happily Ever After, context of constant social judgement. One is also the author of The Politically is the self-help book, which asks readers to Incorrect Guide to English and American Lit- judge themselves. The other is reality tele- of Austen’s fiction: “What Do The Charac- erature, one entry in an unpleasant little series vision, where the viewing pleasure comes ters Call Each Other?” “Why Is The Weather of American books offering conservative ver- from judging the people on screen. Jane Important?” and so on. Mullan’s close read- sions of various academic topics. Her latest Austen could not be a better fit. ing of little, everyday events in Austen is is a collection of perfectly obvious romantic It is no coincidence that the most excit- helpful for readers unversed in 19th century advice weighed down by Republican talking ing English-language novel of the last 12 social mores. In “Do Sisters Sleep Together?” points and bad readings of Austen’s novels. “I months is also explicitly inspired by self- Mullan spells out the standards for sibling set out to analyse what’s missing from mod- help. Sheila Heti’s How Should A Person Be? intimacy against which Austen’s characters ern women’s lives, but all over Jane Austen,” is a novel which combines fact with fiction would have been judged at the time, so that she writes in the introduction. and, like Austen, hazards occasional accusa- readers can learn something about Elizabeth “[Austen’s] men have a particular kind tions of preciousness for the sake of directly and Jane Bennett from the fact that they of respect for women that’s nearly forgotten addressing this question: what kind of a life share a bedroom. And in “Why Is It Risky To today,” Kantor writes, as though chivalry should one decide to live? (The emphasis Go To The Seaside?” Mullan explains that hadn’t been society’s way of gilding the life- being on the word “decide.”) This kind of seaside towns were viewed as places of license long imprisonment of women in the domes- evaluative introspection remains one of the in the 18th century—make an ill-advised trip tic sphere. Elsewhere, walking through few areas in which the novel retains some- to one, and you might come back married to some examples of women who failed to thing of a competitive edge over rival nar- a scoundrel like Mr Wickham. strive for happiness in love, she mentions rative art forms. For pure entertainment Mullan is mildly insightful when it comes “the story of Ashley Alexandra Dupré, the value, television and film left novels in the to Austen’s technical skill, but he has nothing wanna-be singer, real-life prostitute at the dust some time ago. The excitement has to say about why Austen’s appeal should be centre of the Eliot Spitzer scandal.” You long gone out of modernist formal innova- so much more widespread and durable than feel that someone should have told Kantor tion and experiment. But novels can still any other canonical English novelist. He is that “happiness in love” wasn’t what Dupré suggest habits of living in the ideal setting, more of an appreciator than a critic, which was trying to get from the former New York which is to say in private, with words the is to say that he is the latest in an illustrious Governor. To improve the chances of find- reader only hears in his or her own head. line of kindly, harmless Austen appreciators. ing love, Kantor recommends that Dupré Richard Beck is an assistant editor at n+1 So why do people still love Jane Austen’s (and you, if you are a woman) seek out a magazine 86 arts & books prospect october 2012 Will performance art tank? The Tate has opened the world’s first ever museum space for performance art.Laura Gascoigne asks whether subversive art can survive in comfortable surroundings a que s n J a mi n © D © “DEM” by Eddie Peake, performed at Cell Project Space, London: Peake is just one among dozens of artists involved with the Tate Tanks

In July, the first ever museum space dedi- been extraordinarily varied, ranging from with exhaustion on a cross made of ice (a cated to performance art and video instal- a survey in which audience members were 1974 performance at the Guggenheim New lation opened in London. Carved out of the asked questions about politics and spirit- York cut short at the request of the specta- subterranean concrete bunkers that once uality by practicing psychics, to a restag- tors). But without this edge of danger—and stored oil for Bankside Power Station, Tate ing of a 1973 performance by Juan Downey the resulting publicity—what is there in per- Modern’s “The Tanks” have a raw industrial which uses video, CCTV and brain monitors formance art to draw the crowds? aesthetic that fits a genre of art associated to retell Plato’s philosophical allegory of the For the moment novelty, with rare flashes with underground venues. cave. of real creativity. To view Cuban artist Tania “Genre” is perhaps a misleading term The 15-week programme has offered Bruguera’s piece about global migration, vis- for a branch of art that has as many guises something for everyone; the only thing itors were made to wait in line while unsmil- as there are ways of performing—dance, missing has been a sense of danger. How- ing black-clad officials wearing Tate badges drama, poetry, music and ritual. But the ever great The Tanks may look, they’re operated a blatantly unfair queuing system, phenomenon that originated with the anar- only underground in the physical sense, in letting in people from the back of the queue chic antics of the Dadaists in Zurich’s Caba- the bowels of a public institution funded by ahead of others at the front. To ensure admit- ret Voltaire during the first world war does the government. The Tate is obliged to play tance, visitors could volunteer for a lie-detec- have a distinguishing feature. Despite its it safe. There will be none of the risqué rit- tor test answering the standard questions internationalism—the term has been applied uals or sadomasochistic feats of endurance asked at Immigration, but if caught lying to artists from Asia to Europe to North associated with the most outré performance you were not allowed in. When you did get in, America—performance art shares the lan- art. No Stuart Brisley soaking in a bath full all you saw was a worker in a mask welding guage of protest. of rotting offal as at Kensington’s Gallery a sign reading “ARBEIT MACHT FREI”— So what happens when the subversive House in 1972, no Chris Burden having him- at which point it became clear that the queu- and ephemeral is given a permanent home self kicked downstairs as at the Basel Art ing was the performance, and this was the in a public institution? We’re in the process Fair in 1975, no naked Marina Abramovic punch-line. The experience was unnerving of finding out. The Tanks’ inaugural sea- cutting her stomach with a razor and whip- and chastening, and it worked by exploiting son “Art in Action” (until 28th October) has ping herself into a frenzy before collapsing the institutional authority of the Tate. prospect october 2012 arts & books 87

It’s no accident that the two bravest of live art indefinitely, and curators are not hosting a conference to challenge the state- performance pieces of the past 12 years— impresarios. As I write, the Tate still hasn’t ment that “performance is the art of the Michael Landy’s Break Down (in which announced the follow-up to the Art in present tense,” by considering how muse- he destroyed all his personal possessions) Action season. ums might tell the story of performance and Jeremy Deller’s The Battle of Orgreave Will the Tanks become a permanent fea- art’s past. For live audiences, though, live (in which he recreated the pitched bat- ture of London’s art scene? My guess is that performances will remain more appeal- tle between striking Yorkshire miners and they’ll be kept going with a programme of ing. The past may be of interest to art his- mounted police outside Orgreave in 1984)— film recordings and recreations of past per- torians, but the response of the public to a were independently funded by art impre- formances—but this will be in direct con- diet of repeat performances is liable to be sarios Artangel. But even an impresario travention of the ethos of live art. On the “Thanks but no tanks.” would be pushed to fill a rolling programme weekend of 5th October The Tanks are Laura Gascoigne is a critic and writer Spain’s hidden treasure Spanish golden age drama is more than a match for Shakespeare and co, argues James Woodall

When the National Theatre stages a play by 1620s, the arts under Philip III were flour- remains, the reason for his being cast out by a 17th-century Spanish friar this month, it ishing with a profusion unparalleled else- the Order—and despite his nom de plume— might seem as if a jewel of exquisite rarity where in Europe. This was the glittering era was almost certainly his profane plays. were going on display. To an English-speak- of Miguel de Cervantes, the painter Diego This cleric knew, in his head at least, an ing audience, the 16th and 17th centuries Velázquez, the master playwright Lope de unholy amount about the human libido. An are the era of Marlowe, Shakespeare, Jon- Vega—a great influence onT irso—and com- abiding Tirso creation was none other than son and co—the undisputed master dram- poser Tomás Luis de Victoria. Don Juan, the protagonist of The Trick- atists of their age. Yet for power and sheer Tirso joined the religious Order of the ster of Seville and the Stone Guest, which was productivity, the Spanish Golden Age—the Merced in 1600 and led an itinerant life, first performed around 1616. It provides the Siglo de Oro, 1580-1680—is more than a including two years in Santo Domingo, template for the most compelling man in match. Extant plays in Castilian outnum- and periods of banishment from Madrid in western art, and the most priapic. ber, by many hundreds, all the work of the Seville and Cuenca. Of the 100-plus plays What was going on here—a Catho- playwrights of Elizabethan and Stuart Eng- Tirso probably wrote, around 70 survive. lic priest writing apparently lewd dramas land put together. Though little biographical data about him which were neither censored nor shelved? Opening at the National Theatre is There was a rampant public appetite one of them. Damned by Despair, by Tirso for drama in imperial Spain. By the 1580s, de Molina, is a fascinatingly dense study courtyards—“corrales”—were being used as of criminality and redemption. It con- theatres, with a platform thrusting out into a cerns a pious hermit who chooses to test space for spectators, similar to the theatrical his and others’ commitment to God; but environments, open to the sky, that Shake- the Devil leads the hermit astray speare knew. In Madrid there were two cor- and links his fate with that of rales: the Príncipe and the Cruz. Here, Enrico, a Neapolitan outlaw. dramas such as those by Lope de Vega—the With a femme fatale add- age’s most prolific playwright by far—and ing some glamour, the story of course Tirso’s, were performed for becomes an allegory about audiences hungry for tales of transgres- who deserves heaven—the sion, sex, revenge and salvation. Plays flew contrasting men being, from these writers’ desks like news scripts. it is thought, two sides Like Shakespeare they knew what their of the playwright him- punters wanted; and unlike in Shake- self: one contemplative, speare’s time, women were not legally one of action. Frank barred from acting. This was real, McGuinness’s taut, collo- human stuff—“planks, people and a quial adaptation keeps the play, passion,” to adapt very loosely a cele- clearly of its time, thrillingly brated Lope definition of theatre. contemporary. Tirso, Lope de Vega and Pedro Tirso de Molina was an exceptional Calderón de la Barca constitute figure born at an exceptional moment a redoubtable triumvirate of in history. In the late 16th century 17th-century Spanish drama. Spain was enriching itself on mag- (Even Cervantes began his nificent plunder from its transatlan- career as a dramatist.) Of tic empire. Painters, musicians and the three Tirso had the most writers flocked to its relatively new acute insights into human nature. capital, Madrid (chosen in 1561 over Calderón, who died aged 81 in 1681, was a s upe rst ock

© Toledo, just to the south). By the great poet, a perfectionist, a philosophical pessimist, and monastic. His 1630s play, Don Juan, Tirso de Molina’s most Life Is a Dream, with its themes of mental abiding creation isolation, vengeance and life’s illusory 88 arts & books prospect october 2012 thinness, is regularly and widely performed. Revenge, The Dog in the Manger. If today Lope and Co remain a hard sell, Not so the plays of Lope, who might Though not a poet of Calderón’s stat- it’s not least because of patchy translation have written some 1,500, of which around ure—think more Orton crossed with Ayck- of their plays. Tirso at the National Theatre 400 remain and are known to be by him. bourn—Lope was prodigiously popular in this month is the tip of a gigantic iceberg. If Through a 60-year career, he produced his lifetime. His industry alone was respon- McGuinness or any other potential transla- plays of intrigue, of honour defiled and sible for the huge business that was Spanish tor-adapter out there is keen, consider this: restored, historical dramas, romances and theatre in the mid-17th century, a fecundity around another 1,999 Golden Age Spanish comedies. Some titles, because they have that has never been matched. For sheer, bold plays are available. had occasional outings in English, will be inventiveness only Athens in the 5th century James Woodall is an associate editor of familiar: Fuenteovejuna, Punishment without BC and late-Elizabethan London can rival it. Prospect The month in books History dominates this selection, from the first attempts at international government to Brazil’s recent past, says Oliver Kamm

With October lists, publishers have an eye leonic wars. The book traces mentally ego-driven competitive nature.” on the Christmas market while not yet suc- the chequered history of this It does not matter what a scientist’s moti- cumbing to the dreary ephemera of books notion of international gov- vation is. Science is a human device, but designed to be given as presents. This ernment. It is a cogent and its methods are the most reliable way yet month’s selection contains pleasures that learned argument about devised of accumulating knowledge. ought to be savoured without interruption. the seductive thesis that an anarchic international order This month’s most excit- In Iron Curtain: The can be tamed by applying ing novels come from Tur- Crushing of Eastern rules and reason. key and Brazil. Silent House Europe, 1944-56 (Allen Mazower is particularly acute in identify- (Faber & Faber, £18.99) is Lane, £25) Anne Apple- ing the paradox of historic institutions that the second novel by Orhan baum describes how the spoke in the language of fraternity despite Pamuk, the Nobel laureate, entire region from the Bal- being the outcome of military victory. His and now appears in English tic to the Adriatic was sub- conclusion is an astringent corrective for for the first time. It depicts jugated by Stalin within a us liberal-democratic internationalists who an aged widow awaiting the summer visit few years. With a stubborn suspicion of believe that the world would benefit from of her grandchildren in Cennethisar, once a “totalitarianism” as an ideologically tainted more integration. Voters invariably and eve- fishing village and now a fashionable resort term, historians have tended to overlook the rywhere regard the nation-state as their near Istanbul. The narrative is set a few extraordinary thoroughness of this phenom- focus of allegiance rather than any supra- weeks before the military coup in Turkey of enon. Applebaum sets herself to explain it, national body. Owing to public alienation at September 1980. Pamuk has been slightly beginning with Europeans’ sense of “radi- the dilution of sovereignty, argues Mazower, too glibly characterised as a bridge between cal loneliness” amid the carnage of the sec- “the idea of governing the world has become Turkey and the west, but he is an important ond world war. Her account illuminates the yesterday’s dream.” interpreter of the fissures inT urkish society. squalid statecraft of the nominally local This is a deft and moving novel of thwarted autocracies of central and eastern Europe. Liberalism is not only a set dreams amid political ferment. And she describes poignantly the plight of of political ideals: it prizes the peoples of these nations, and the psy- scientific inquiry rather than Memory in old age is also chological compromises needed to live in a revealed truth. The agents the theme of Spilt Milk system where the communist monopoly on of inquiry are, however, sub- (Atlantic, £12.99) by power invaded every aspect of life. ject to human passions and Chico Buarque. Eulálio de This is a magnificent book. Among its jealousies. Prize Fight: Assumpção, a wealthy cen- merits is a deft refutation of the old revision- The Race and Rivalry to tenarian, recounts his life ist claim that the harsher policies adopted Be the First in Science by Morton A. Mey- and memories to anyone who by Stalin in 1947 and 1948 were primarily ers (Palgrave Macmillan, £16.99) is a salu- will listen as he lies dying in a defensive reaction to the Cold War. They tary account of controversies over allocating an undistinguished public hospital. He were, rather, born of a realisation that com- credit for scientific discoveries.E motion and fondly imagines starting a new life with the munism did not command popular support the desire for priority may also result in sci- nurse who bathes him. Yet through all his and could be established only by repression. entific fraud or self-deception regarding recollections weaves the figure of Matilde, issues with a direct impact on human wel- a girl with cinnamon skin, whom he first The end of the Cold War spurred expecta- fare. Andrew Wakefield’s now-debunked saw at the memorial service for his dissolute tions of a new era of international coopera- research claiming a link between autism father. The subject may sound clichéd and tion. In Governing the World: The History and the MMR vaccine is a peculiarly scan- the prose, Sebald-like, forbiddingly lacks of an Idea (Allen Lane, £25), Mark Maz- dalous case. Meyers gives interesting detail paragraphs. But the novel is poignant and ower explains that such ideas are far from on specific cases. The weaknesses of the scabrously funny in depicting its protago- new. They have a counterpart in the Con- book are a slightly florid prose style and the nist’s life against the background of Brazil’s cert of Europe envisaged 200 years ago in exaggerated claim that “a great secret of sci- recent history. reaction to the destructiveness of the Napo- ence has been revealed regarding its funda- Oliver Kamm is a leader writer for The Times 7hji>kcWd_j_[i <[ij_lWb(&'(

0HWDPRUSKRVHVjhWdi\ehcWj_edi Yedl[hi_edi

?dj^_io[WhÊi7hji>kcWd_j_[i<[ij_lWbWjA_d]Êi9ebb[][BedZed"mh_j[hi"Whj_ijiWdZf[h\ehc[him_bb`e_dWYWZ[c_Yi_dfh[i[dj_d] Ykjj_d]#[Z][meha$;l[dji_dYbkZ[0 š C_Y^W[bCehfkh]eWdZCW]]_[<[h]kiiedZ_iYkiiÉJ^[Ife_bie\MWhÊ š =hWøj_e\j^[7hWXIfh_d] š M_bbI[b\WdZFWjh_YaMh_]^jm_bb[nWc_d[j^[dej_ede\Wi^h_da_d];d]bWdZ š H[b_]_ed_d7c[h_YWdFeb_j_Yi š J^[BedZedfh[c_[h[e\Bed[Jm_dÊi8eWjFhe`[Yj š M_bb_Wc8bWa[Êiif_h_jkWbY_jo š D[kheiY_[dj_ijiWdZf^_beief^[hiZ_iYkiij^[8hW_dWdZj^[C_dZ š 9edY[hjiWdZf[h\ehcWdY[i š J^[=kWhZ_WdÊi9^Whbejj[>_]]_di[nfbeh[iHecWd8h_jW_d š J^[jhWdi\ehcWj_ede\Óbc\hecY[bbkbe_ZjeZ_]_jWb š 9h_c[mh_j[h@_cA[bboedjhWdi\ehc_d]bWdZiYWf[i š H[YedijhkYj_d]beijWhY^_j[Yjkh[m_j^Z_]_jWbj[Y^debe]o ;l[djim_bbX[^[bZedj^[IjhWdZ9Wcfki"M9(H(BI$J^[oWh[\h[[Xkjm_bbX[j_Ya[j[Z$

')#(-EYjeX[h(&'(Ţmmm$aYb$WY$ka%W^\[ij

 KEdDWKZZzWh>/^,/E'ʹKEdDWKZZzZ/E'



=HUR%RRNV²&RQWHPSRUDU\FXOWXUHKDVHOLPLQDWHGWKHFRQFHSWDQGSXEOLFILJXUHRIWKHLQWHOOHFWXDO$FUHWLQRXVDQWLLQWHOOHFWXDOLVPSUHVLGHVFKHHUOHGE\KDFNVLQWKH SD\RIPXOWLQDWLRQDOFRUSRUDWLRQVZKRUHDVVXUHWKHLUERUHGUHDGHUVWKDWWKHUHLVQRQHHGWRURXVHWKHPVHOYHVIURPWKHLUVWXSRU=HUR%RRNVNQRZVWKDWDQRWKHUNLQGRI GLVFRXUVH²LQWHOOHFWXDOZLWKRXWEHLQJDFDGHPLFSRSXODUZLWKRXWEHLQJSRSXOLVW²LVQRWRQO\SRVVLEOHLWLVDOUHDG\IORXULVKLQJ=HURLVFRQYLQFHGWKDWLQWKHXQWKLQNLQJ EODQGO\FRQVHQVXDOFXOWXUHLQZKLFKZHOLYHFULWLFDODQGHQJDJHGWKHRUHWLFDOUHIOHFWLRQLVPRUHLPSRUWDQWWKDQHYHUEHIRUHZZZ]HURERRNVQHW

,II%RRNV²LVLQWHUHVWHGLQLGHDVDQGUHDVRQLQJ,WSXEOLVKHVPDWHULDORQVFLHQFHSKLORVRSK\DQGODZ,II%RRNVDLPVWRZRUNZLWKDXWKRUVDQGWLWOHVWKDWDXJPHQWRXU XQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHKXPDQFRQGLWLRQVRFLHW\DQGFLYLOLVDWLRQDQGWKHZRUOGRUXQLYHUVHLQZKLFKZHOLYHZZZLIIERRNVFRP

1HZDXWKRUVFDQVXEPLWZRUNYLDRXUZHEVLWHVE\XVLQJWKH¶*HW3XEOLVKHG·WDE$OOLPSULQWVDUHSDUWRI-RKQ+XQW3XEOLVKLQJ/WG



LQGG  90 prospect october 2012 Memoir John Dramani Mahama

After serving as vice president since 2009. Chinua Achebe who described it as “A John Dramani Mahama became president much welcome work of immense of Ghana in July, following the death of relevance.” The Financial Times singled President John Atta Mills in May. A general out Mahama’s ability to weave “small slices election is set for December. of history and culture into a family Mahama’s recently-published memoir, narrative so rich in colour it at times feels My First Coup D’Etat tells the story of his like magical realism.” childhood and adolescence in Ghana during Here Mahama remembers when as a 1960s and 70s. The book has received young boy, he heard rumours of a military widespread praise, including from novelist and poet coup and went in search of his politician father.

My first coup d’état

t happened on February 24, 1966. I was seven years old, a receive their advanced degrees. Dr. Nkrumah opted instead to class 2 pupil in the primary division of Achimota, an elite attend institutions in the United States, receiving his undergradu- boarding school in Accra, Ghana’s capital. That day there ate degree at Lincoln University and graduate degrees at the Uni- was a lot of commotion; teachers rushed about in a notice- versity of Pennsylvania. ably scattered fashion and huddled in corners whispering. Dr. Nkrumah’s return to Ghana upon the completion of his IIt did not take long for the news to spread, first through the upper studies added more steam to the struggle for independence. school’s student body, then down to the younger pupils. He, along with Dr. J. B. Danquah, Dr. Ebenezer Ako-Adjei, Mr. The words I heard people speaking that day seemed to hold a Edward Akufo-Addo, Mr. William Ofori-Atta, and Mr. Emmanuel certain air of mystery and urgency, especially the phrase coup d’ Obetsebi-Lamptey, became affectionately known as “theB ig Six” état, which was being repeated like a mantra. I had never heard it for their frontline role in the fight against British colonialism. before. Yet I knew, without having to be told, that it did not belong They were victorious in that fight, and on March 6, 1957, theB rit- to any of the six languages I spoke: not Gonja, not Twi, not Hausa, ish colony called Gold Coast became Ghana, an independent self- Dagbani, or Ga; not even English. To my child’s ear, the phrase ruled nation. As a result, Ghana was and still is the country her- sounded exciting, like a game that all the upper-form students alded as the trailblazer of the African liberation movement. would soon be playing; and from the moment I first heard it—coup Ghana’s freedom sparked a chain reaction in sub-Saharan d’état—I wished I could learn how to play this new game as well. Africa, with at least sixteen nations becoming independent in The day after the coup, once the initial flurry of fear and excite- 1960 alone. Dr. Nkrumah, who was a leading Pan-Africanist and ment had passed, our teachers explained that it wasn’t a game also one of the founding fathers of the Organisation of African after all; the phrase coup d’état apparently meant the government Unity, which in 2002 became the African Union, was a dynamic had been overthrown. Even in plain English the concept seemed and controversial figure with a far-reaching vision for Ghana and nonsensical to me. How can you overthrow an entire government? for Africa. He was revered by many, but there were some who And what exactly are you throwing it over? either did not share that vision or did not approve of his methods Days passed. The news became more precise and I began to for making it a reality. The transition from having been a colony to piece bits of information together. While our president, Osagyefo becoming a country had been relatively smooth for Ghana, espe- Dr. Kwame Nkrumah, was on an official visit to North Vietnam, cially when compared with other fledgling nations that were rife the military had seized control of Ghana. with rebellion. Conditions did not seem at all ripe for a coup, not in Dr. Nkrumah was Ghana’s first president, and he was a true Ghana. Three years prior, there had been a coup in the neighbour- visionary. At the time it was fairly commonplace for Ghanaian ing country of Togo, during which the president, Sylvanus Olym- intellectuals to travel to Europe to complete their education and pio, was assassinated. That was the first major coup of its sort in contemporary Africa, and it left the continent shaken. Still, the © “My First Coup d’Etat” by John Dramani Mahama (Bloomsbury) political climate in Ghana was not as hostile as it had been in Togo, prospect october 2012 Fiction 91 u fka s D REUTERS/Co r inn e © and Ghanaian citizens seemed less inclined toward violence; this is which is in the northern region of Ghana, roughly six hundred why our first coup d’ état was such a shock to everyone. kilometres from Accra. The arrangement whereby they were sep- At Achimota we heard that all the ministers of state had been arated for the purposes of his employment was not uncommon arrested. This particular titbit of information gave me pause then, nor is it now. because my father was a minister of state. Even so, I don’t think My auntie was granted permission for us to leave. We took a I was able to fully absorb all the implications. Not then. Perhaps taxi from the Achimota campus to Kanda, the section of Accra in it was because I had not received word from my family that any- which my father’s house was located. Back then, Kanda was a sol- thing was wrong. Or it might have been because I felt, as children idly upper-middle-class enclave, populated primarily with minis- so often do, that my family and I were somehow shielded, auto- ters of state and members of Parliament. matically exempt from anything tragic. Almost immediately after we left Achimota, I began noticing The coup d’état became real to me, an event that constituted plenty of military vehicles, each packed full of men. Never had I more than just words, in early April when my school vacated for seen that many soldiers in town, and all of them were armed. It the Easter holidays and nobody came to pick me up. I watched as was simply unheard of. In those days, a “soldier sighting” right in all the other children left with their relations.R oom after room of the middle of town was so rare that it made you stop in your tracks. each dormitory was emptied of its occupants until mine were the Soldiers generally stayed in the barracks, their self-contained city only footsteps in the halls. And still, no one came. within a city. At Achimota, there was an adult, a maternal figure of sorts, I’d been to the barracks before. They were located in Burma assigned to each dormitory in the primary school. We called them Camp, the main military base in Accra. My elder sister Rose lived aunties. Each auntie generally had about ten small boys in her there with her husband, a captain in the army. Our father would charge. The aunties looked after us.T hey made sure we woke up occasionally take some of us children to Burma Camp to spend on time, had our baths, ate our breakfasts, and were not late to our time with our big sister. Rose, who was statuesque and as pretty as studies. They saw to our overall well-being. a cinema star, worked as a stewardess for Ghana Airways. She trav- That night I slept at school by myself, the only child. My auntie, elled often, so being able to see her was always a treat. a stereotypical schoolmarm, was also in the dormitory. The next Somehow, driving through Accra with my auntie felt like morning, my auntie took me to the headmistress and sought per- driving through the barracks, which reminded me of those visits mission to leave the school grounds with me. She wanted to try to to Rose with our father, which in turn made me all the more locate my house so that she could take me to my family or, more homesick. As the taxi approached my home, I noticed that the accurately, to my father and siblings. When my father took his house and the area immediately surrounding it was filled with first government post, as a member of Parliament and then as a police officers and soldiers.T hey had even erected tents in which minister of state, my mother did not relocate south to the capital they seemed to have taken up residence. The taxi stopped and with him. She remained in his family home in the town of Bole, my auntie got out. I followed sheepishly, my tiny fingers barely 92 Fiction prospect october 2012 resting in the palm of the hand that she held out to me. long, exhausted exhales. It was rumoured that people had been My auntie greeted the soldier who appeared to be in charge. executed. I knew the headmistress and my auntie were worried my Her tone was official and respectful. Not warm, but also not stern. father might have been among them. I was worried, too. It was the sort of voice she would use to speak with the parents of It was at Rose’s that I discovered our father was not dead; he a badly behaved student. had been detained the day after the coup. My other siblings had “We are in search of Honourable E. A. Mahama,” she said, been picked up by their mothers and various other relatives and using the honorific associated with my father’s political position. were now scattered all throughout the country. It would be quite The soldier looked at us through bloodshot eyes. His presence a while before I would see them again, but when I did, they told was imposing, a tad threatening. He sucked his teeth and then hes- me what happened on the day of the coup and immediately after. itated, as though he was contemplating whether or not we were The military had taken over the Flagstaff House, which was even worthy of a response. When he finally did speak, his tone was the official residence of Dr. Nkrumah, and then they had gone on gruff, especially in contrast with my auntie’s. to take over the broadcasting station. It was announced over the “He no longer lives here.” airwaves that there had been a coup d’état. All the ministers of My auntie did not need to hear any more. She knew the infor- state, members of Parliament, district commissioners, chairmen, mation would not be good. She closed her fingers around my hand, and secretaries of the ruling political party, as well as a long list of tightening her grip, then turned on her heels and rushed away. We other people of interest, were requested to report to the nearest marched hastily to the taxi, which had been waiting for us, and we police station for “their own safety.” got in. The driver, who had witnessed my auntie’s interaction with Dad gathered a few things, got in his car, and drove to the police the soldier and sensed the possibility of danger, quickly spun the station, where he was sent into interrogation and then, much to vehicle around. As he did that, I too spun around so my body was everyone’s surprise, placed into custody. After a night in custody no longer facing forward. I knelt on the seat, leaned my chin and at the police station, he was transported to Ussher Fort, one of the elbows against the top of its backrest, and stared out the rear win- various slave forts that were built in the mid 1600s by the Dutch dow, wondering if I would ever see our home again, if I would ever colonists, which was now being used as a prison. see my father again. The National Liberation Council, the name of the governing I did not cry that day; but in the days, weeks, and months that body that was instituted by the military officials who’d staged the followed there were numerous times when I would remember it coup, had set up a Commission of Inquiry to investigate mem- all—the makeshift tents, the soldier’s bloodshot eyes, his weapon, bers of Dr. Nkrumah’s government, ostensibly for the purpose the dirt and dust rising from the tyres and filling the air as the taxi of uncovering activities, acquisitions, and alliances that could be drove me away into a cloud of uncertainty. I would remember, and deemed inappropriate and therefore punishable. My father and I would weep. his political colleagues who had also been detained were made to “Where do you think your family might be?” my auntie and the report to the commission repeatedly for questioning. Once the headmistress asked me the morning after our fruitless attempt to commission had obtained all the information it needed to con- find my father. It was a harrowing question, one that I was ill pre- clude its investigations and present a report, those individuals pared, at seven years old, to contemplate, let alone answer. were either released or recommended for legal action. “Do you have any aunties or sisters who might come for you?” As coup d’états go, that first one which took place in Ghana I suppose because my mother was so far away, they never stopped was swift and unexpected. It is sometimes incorrectly referred to to consider the possibility of her coming to collect me. At that in texts as a bloodless coup, yet it was anything but. The night time, the northern region of Ghana seemed like an entirely differ- after the coup while my eldest brother, Peter, was being taken ent country. It was the hinterland. Even I could not envision my to his mother’s house, the taxi in which he was riding was made mother making her way to Accra to find me, not without my father to stop at the Flagstaff House. Once there, the military officer sending his driver, Mallam, for her. posted at the entrance ordered Peter and the other children in For a moment, my mind went blank and all I could do was the taxi to close their eyes while he interrogated the driver. They panic. What if there was no one left to come for me? What would I did as they were told, but not before Peter had caught a glimpse do? Where would I go? I’d barely had an opportunity to entertain of the courtyard in front of the Flagstaff House, which, he later the fear that had begun to slowly engulf me when all the details of told me, was filled with rows and rows of dead bodies. It is an what, before the coup d’état, had once been my life suddenly came image that Peter, who was only ten years old at the time, has rushing back to me. never been able to forget. “Oh,” I said, my eyes widening with the renewed sense of self. It My father remained in detention, a prisoner of politics, for well was the first time since the day of the coup that I’d displayed any- over a year. Dr. Kwame Nkrumah, who’d never been able to return thing resembling confidence or certainty. “I have a sister!” I went home after what was intended to be a brief official visit abroad, on to tell my auntie and the headmistress about Rose in Burma remained in exile until his death in 1972. When I was not in school Camp. Using the telephone directory, they were able to track down at Achimota, I lived with Rose and her husband at Burma Camp. Rose, who thankfully was in town and immediately came to pick Though I loved my sister and did not associate either her or her me up. husband with what had happened to my father, the irony of my Even as I waited for Rose to come for me, despite the frantic having nowhere else to live except the military barracks because efforts of my auntie and the headmistress to find my father, we of my father’s detention after a military coup was not at all lost on still had not received any word of his whereabouts. My auntie and me. But what could I do? What could any of us do? the headmistress tried as best they could, with smiles and toffee, By the time my father was released from prison, Ghana was a to shield me from their rising anxiety, but I could feel it bounc- much different country. Not surprisingly, I was a much different ing off the quick sideways glances they shot each other and tak- boy, the course of my future having already been irreversibly ing flight like some dark, winged creature on the breath of their impacted by that unspeakable period of violence. ANTI-PORN The Resurgence of Anti-Porn Feminism Julia Long

‘A veveryr important and badly needed antidoteantido to the celebratory literature on pornographyporno ... The style is eloquent and clearclear and the book is a pleasure to read.’ ProfessorProfes Sheila Jeffreys, University of MelbourneMelbo ‘At‘At lastla a book that tells the truth about WKHUDGLFDOIHPLQLVWÀJKWDJDLQVWWKHWKHUD misogynistmisog porn industry, and the bravery ofof womenwo everywhere who organize againstagain these predatory capitalists.’ ProfessorProfes Gail Dines, Wheelock College, Boston,Bosto author of Pornland: How Porn Has HijackedHijack Our Sexuality ‘Lucid‘Lucid and engaging ... Long gives the feministfemin anti-pornography movement the respect it deserves.’ Rebecca Whisnant, University of Dayton, author of Not for Sale

September 2012 | 9781780320250 | Paperback £14.99

Zed Books 7 Cynthia Street, London N1 9JF Tel: 020 7837 4014 [email protected] www.zedbooks.co.uk 94 prospect october 2012

The Olympics generalist by Didymus Enigmas & puzzles 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Mashers and shredders

10 11 12 13 Ian Stewart

The space barge Nohopo had landed on an 14 15 16 unknown planetoid, thought to be devoid of life, which had turned out to be infested by deadly aliens. After a horrific battle, Warrant Officer 17 18 19 Dripley emerged as the sole survivor, and sent an urgent radio message to Company HQ: “Attacked

20 21 22 23 24 25 by a nest of mashers and shredders, all killed along with the rest of the crew.” “How many of each type of alien?” came the 26 27 28 29 30 reply.

31 32 Dripley looked at the carnage and started counting body-parts. “I’ve got 42 claws, 42 33 34 tentacles, and 42 tusks.” 35 “How many when they were intact?”

36 37 38 39 “Not sure. Mashers have 5 claws, 6 tentacles, and 3 tusks, and shredders have 4 claws, 2 tentacles, and 8 tusks.” 40 41 42 43 Enlighten Head Office. 44 45

46 47 48 49

50

51 52

Last month’s answer It takes 6 cats to balance one pig. 24 of the solutions are gold related Let C, D, P, R be the weights of a cat, dog, pig, rabbit. The pictures show that P = C+D, D = C+R, 3R = 2P. So P = C+(C+R) = 2C+R. Multiply by 3 to get 3P=6C+3R. But ACROSS Litani (7) 22 Climbing plant of the pea 3R = 2P so this becomes 3P = 6C+2P. Subtract 2P to get P = 6C. 10 and 27 Canoe Slalom: Men’s 42 Cycling Road: Men’s Time family (5) Canoe Double (3,7 and 7,5) Trial (7) 24 First World War poet and 12 Policies aimed at converging 46 Rowing: Women’s author of Memoirs of a Fox- EU economies in three stages Lightweight Double Sculls Hunting Man (7) to adopt the euro (3, initials) (8) 25 Shepherd’s pipe or pastoral 13 Jacob’s eldest son and 47 Rowing: Women’s Double song (3) progenitor of one of the Sculls (4,7) 28 Inhabitant of Sohag, Minya or Tanta (8) Tribes of Israel (6) 51 A town crier (7) 29 Isolated remnant of rock How to enter 14&37, 17 and 36 Cycling Track: 52 Cycling Track: Men’s Team surrounded by older ones (7) Women’s Team Pursuit (6,7 Sprint (5,8) and 4,4 and 5,5) 30 ... Bulba, rhapsody for 15 Tibetan monastery (9) orchestra by Janacek (5) The generalist prize DOWN One winner receives Grimm Tales for 16&6 Tennis: Men’s Singles (4,6) 31 Bread for thrushes (5) 1 Boxing: Women’s Flyweight Young and Old (Penguin, hardcover, 17 see 14 32 In Finnish grammar, a case (6,5) £20), in which the classic tales of 18 This Latin neuter adjective (3) indicating place (6) 2 It joins the Colorado at 35 Taekwondo: Women, under the Brothers Grimm are retold in 19 Coloured prior to weaving Yuma (4,5) 57kg (4,5) contemporary language by Philip (4-4) 3 Ex-prisoner (3,3) 37 see 14 Pullman. Pullman’s selection includes 20 Canoe Sprint: Men’s Kayak 4 see 34 Single 200m (2,8) 38 One of the five peoples all the most famous tales—such “Little 5 Athletics: Women’s of the original Iroquois 23 South African port – or Red Riding Hood,” “Cinderella,” “Snow Heptathlon (7,5) confederacy (6) thematic venue? (4,6) White”—alongside other less familiar 39 Men’s Triathlon (8) 26 The grayling (5) 6 see 16 stories. 43 Statement allowing no 27 see 10 7 Relating to a tribunal panel Enigmas & puzzles prize which resolves industrial opposition (6) The winner receives The World’s Most Difficult Quiz 2, by Pat 33 Cycling Track: Men’s Keirin disputes (8) 44 Athletics: Men’s 5,000m and (5,3) 8 Equestrianism: Dressage 10,000m (5) Cullen (Liverpool University Press, £9.99), which collects 34 and 4 Equestrianism: Team Individual (8) 45 Author of Das Schloß and the most taxing questions from early King William’s College Showjumping (5,5 and 3,5) 9 Cycling Track: Women’s Der Prozeß (5) General Knowledge papers. 36 Cycling Track: Women’s Keirin (9) 48 Old French measure of cloth Omnium (5,5) 11 Sydney’s popular surfing – about 47 inches (4) Rules 39 Sailing Finn: Men’s beach (5) 49 Hungarian Prime Minister Heavyweight Dinghy (3,7) Send your solution to [email protected] or 21 Inhabitant of Pilsen, Usti in 1953 and 1956 (4) 40 Cats’ sounds (5) Crossword/Enigmas, Prospect, 2 Bloomsbury Place, London, nad Labem or Hradec 50 Conifer; its wood is used in WC1A 2QA. Include your email and postal address for prize 41 Its principal river is the Kralove (5) bow-making (3) administration. All entries must be received by 5th October. Last month’s solutions Winners will be announced in our November issue. Solutions across: 1 As Time Goes By 7 A moitié 13 Thrillant 14 Lead nitrate 15 One for the road 16 Marburg 17 Hog deer 18 Enfants perdus 19 Surcease 20 Trichoptera 24 Cantaloupe 26 Canteloube 29 Meadow pipit 31 Techiest 35 Outer Mongolia 37 Rwandan 38 Marabou 39 Oxford scholar 40 Sal prunella 41 Ardrossan Last month’s winners 42 Kilsyth 43 Peter Sellers The generalist: Charles Curran, Ingleton Solutions down: 1 Astrophysics 2 Tarn-et-Garonne 3 Melpomene 4 Gran turismo 5 Entremes 6 Ball of fire Enigmas & Puzzles: Lillian Shapiro, London 8 Meno mosso 9 Interdental 10 Iracund 11 Pandanaceae 12 Hengist 21 Rouget de Lisle 22 Spring rolls 23 Newton’s Rings 25 Andy Roberts 27 The Crusades 28 Bill of fare 30 Whodunnit 32 Heath-fowl 33 Formosa 34 Fairlane 36 Torelli Download a PDF of this page at www.prospect-magazine.co.uk The Prospect list Our pick of the best public talks and events

Thursday 4th Cheltenham Town Hall, Imperial Council Room, Rubin Building, 29-30 Paul Kelly, University of Edinburgh Interventions: A life in war and Square, 6.30m, £8, 0844 880 8094, Tavistock Square, London WC1, 1pm, University of Edinburgh, Appleton peace www.cheltenhamfestivals.com free, 020 7679 2000, www.ucl.ac.uk Tower, Crichton St, 6.30pm, free, Kofi Annan 0131 650 1000, www.ed.ac.uk London School of Economics, Houghton Wednesday 10th Thursday 11th This house—then St, London, WC2, 6pm, free, Poetry and song: a celebration US Elections Unspun: The truth Malcolm Rifkind & Shirley Williams, 020 7405 7686, www.lse.ac.uk Carol Ann Duffy, poet behind the headlines politicians Ancient medicine: secrets of the Great Hall, Wills Memorial Building, Michael Kirk, documentary filmmaker Cottesloe Theatre, National Theatre, Greeks Queen’s Rd, Clifton, Bristol, 6pm, free, Staff Restaurant, British Library, 96 Upper Ground, South Bank, London Catherine Walker, Wellcome 0117 928 8515, www.bristol.ac.uk Euston Rd, London NW1, 6.30pm, free, SE1, 6pm, £4, 020 7452 3000, Collection The politics of coalition 01937 546060, www.bl.uk www.nationaltheatre.org Wellcome Collection, 183 Euston Rd, Robert Hazell & Ben Yong, UCL’s London NW1, 4pm, free, 020 7611 Constitution Unit Saturday 12th Wednesday 24th 2222, www.wellcomecollection.org In conversation: the far and near A celebration of Patrick Leigh The list is expanding east Fermor Sunday 7th Sara Matson & Miguel Amado, Tate Colin Thubron & Artemis Cooper, The Nick Clarke debate: what online. For regular updates, visit St Ives writers makes a great leader? www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/ Tate St Ives, Porthmeor Beach, St Ives, Royal Geographical Society, 1 Anne Applebaum & Gavin Esler, listings Cornwall, 12.30pm, free, Kensington Gore, London SW7, 7pm, journalists; Peter Hennessy, 01736 796 226, tate.org.uk/stives £10, 020 7591 3100, www.rgs.org historian; Jack Straw, politician To place events in the list Cheltenham Literary Festival, t: 020 7255 1344, f :020 7255 1279 Thursday 18th Thursday 25th Cheltenham Town Hall, Imperial [email protected] Literature and spoken word The Allied bombing of German Square, 12pm, £8, 0844 880 8094, Send November events by 5th October Richard Ford, novelist cities in World War II was www.cheltenhamfestivals.com Southbank Centre, Belvedere Rd, unjustifiable To attend events London, SE1, 7.45pm, £10, 020 7960 Antony Beevor & Richard Overy, Tuesday 9th Always confirm details in advance and 4200, www.southbankcentre.co.uk historians; Patrick Bishop, journalist; The Diplomat reserve a place if necessary. Prices AC Grayling, philosopher Matthew Parris, writer and politician; listed are standard; there may be Tuesday 23rd RIBA, 66 Portland Place, London W1B Sherard Cowper-Coles, diplomat concessions The war on drugs, our changing 1AD, 7pm, £25, 020 7580 5533, Cheltenham Literary Festival, world www.intelligencesquared.com HS Ad (30 x 88) 6/2/12 11:03 Page 1 CLASSIFIED

Who will cherish your pets, care for your home, baffle the burglars and reduce your insurance premium? Financial assistance C. L. Hawley Academic books bought and sold for writers ® Literary Criticism, History, Grants and Pensions are 24 hr brochure line 01296 630730 or www.homesitters.co.uk Politics etc. Browse and buy available to published online or contact us with We stay when you’re away books for sale. authors of several works who are in financial Menton, www.clhawley.co.uk difficulties due to personal Tel: 01756 792380 Côte d’Azur 4(%7%%+!$6%24&).!,! 7sPDFor professional setbacks. (40 mins from Nice) Pretty two Applications are bedroom house, sleeps four. Well considered in confidence -equipped kitchen and large sitting by the General Committee room. Set in grounds of 1860’s town villa. Pool. Charming courtyard with C every month. lemon trees and views of the Bay of Menton and old town. 10 minute M For further details please contact walk to covered market, beaches and bus and train station. Off street Y Eileen Gunn parking available. Booking now for 2013. CM General Secretary Tel: 07900 916729 Email: [email protected] The Royal Literary Fund MY www.mentonsejour.com 3 Johnson’s Court www.mentonsejour.com CY London EC4A 3EA WE BUY AND SELL O’Donoghue CMY Tel 020 7353 7159 LANGUAGE BOOKS Books K Wanted, to buy [email protected] FOREIGN, CELTIC, PHILOSOPHY & ENGLISH SOCIAL SCIENCE BOOKS From libraries to single items Fair prices paid Marijana Dworski Books Will travel to view/buy For information about Presteigne, Powys, A classified advertising LD8 2LA, U.K O’Donoghue Books contact Dan Jefferson www.rlf.org.uk Tel: (+44) 01544 267300 Hay-on-Wye The Royal Literary Fund [email protected] [email protected] 01497 821153 Registered Charity no. 219952 www.dworskibooks.com [email protected] 0207 255 1281 96 prospect october 2012 The way we were Television and the US presidential elections Extracts from memoirs and diaries, chosen by Ian Irvine

Richard Nixon reflects in and there was a feeling that his memoirs on the televised he would sometimes leave his debates in 1960: game there. “An entirely new factor We worked all day Friday entered American political and Saturday, and he got a lot campaigning in 1960 with better fast. By noon on the sec- the first televised debates ond day we knew we were mov- between the two presiden- ing in the right direction. We tial challengers. An incum- were making our points a lot bent seldom agrees willingly more relentlessly and in the to debate his challenger, and I allotted time frame. We were knew the debates would bene- solid on when to look at the fit Kennedy more than me by candidates, when to look at the giving his views national expo- press, when to look at the cam- sure, which he needed more era—the basic things you have than I did… But there was no to execute on television. way I could refuse to debate In a debate, the protocol I without having Kennedy and try to emphasise is, Answer, the media turn my refusal into attack, explain. It does matter a central campaign issue… that you answer every question. Post-debate polls of the tel- People understand if you don’t evision audience gave the edge answer the question, so do it to Kennedy. Ralph McGill of first every time. Then attack the Atlanta Constitution, who your opponent, do some dam- supported Kennedy, observed Nixon announces the release of transcripts of the Watergate tapes, 1974 age. Then explain your posi- that those listening to the tion. If you get cut short, you’re debate on radio reported that I had the then he turned very slowly to me and he said, cut short on the explanation, not the answer. better of it. This was small comfort, since ‘You know, you’re probably right.’” If you leave the voters feeling like you didn’t the television audience had been five to six answer the question, you lose a lot.” times larger than the radio audience. Martin Amis, who followed Ronald Rea- It is a devastating commentary on the gan on the 1980 presidential campaign Rebecca Traister, journalist, observes nature of television as a political medium trail, later observed of his success: Hillary Clinton’s campaign for the Dem- that what hurt me most in the first debate “Two lines in American life, not quite paral- ocratic nomination (2008): was not the substance of the encounter lel, were moving towards each other: Ronald “Some men on television were antsy to get between Kennedy and me, but the disad- Reagan and television. And then they met. In the Clinton bonfire started.O ne was Tucker vantageous contrast in our physical appear- retrospect, it is not entirely frivolous to view Carlson, who seemed fixated on the possibil- ances. After the program ended, callers, the 1980 election as a vanished Reagan west- ity that the candidate might geld him. First including my mother, wanted to know if any- ern, a lost outline for Death Valley Days [a he claimed, ‘Something about her feels cas- thing was wrong, because I did not look well.” 1950s TV series which Reagan had hosted]. trating’; then ‘[When Clinton] comes on tel- Jimmy Carter was the prosing weakie who evision, I involuntarily cross my legs’; finally Don Hewitt, producer of the first debate kept the store. John B Anderson [who ran as he suggested, ‘The one thing we learned in Chicago for CBS, recalls preparations an independent] was the gesticulating fron- from the Lorena Bobbitt case... [is that] in the television studio: tier preacher who just held up the action. But women are angry at men in a lot of ways.’ “I said to both of them, ‘Do you want some Ronnie was the man who came riding into In one interview with Carlson, Cliff May, makeup?’ Kennedy, who didn’t need any, town, his head held high, not afraid to use president of the Foundation for Defense said no. Nixon heard him say no and decided, his fists—well prepared, if asked to become of Democracies, called Clinton ‘a vaginal- ‘I can’t have makeup because it will look like the next sheriff of the United States. What American,’ prompting Carlson to ask, ‘Do I got made up and he didn’t.’ He went off in is this televisual mastery of Reagan’s? It is a you think that people who are voting on the another room and got made up with some- celebration of good intentions and unexcep- basis of gender solidarity ought to be allowed thing called Lazy Shave, and looked like tional abilities. His style is one of hammy self- to vote in a perfect world?’ He seemed una- death warmed over… Four years later, I’m effacement, a wry dismay at his own limited ware that his gyno-obsession with Clinton, sitting in a makeup room in San Francisco talents and their drastic elevation.” alongside his castration anxiety, revealed his [at the Republican Convention]. Richard very own commitment to gender solidarity. Nixon is being made up to go out on the ros- James Carville, Bill Clinton’s 1992 cam- In December, when a CNN Headline trum to introduce the [Republican presiden- paign manager, recalls in his memoirs: News guest observed to the conservative host tial] nominee, Barry Goldwater. And I said, “We always thought Clinton practiced bet- Glenn Beck that most senators see a presi- ‘You know, Mr. Nixon, if you’d let Franny ter than he played. It happens with lots of dent in the mirror when they shave, Beck here make you up four years ago, Barry candidates. He had some good debates in replied, ‘Does that include Hillary?’ Then he Goldwater would be going out there now to the primary, but we had seen some stag- mimed her shaving her chin and growling, introduce you.’ He looked in the mirror. And gering performances in the locker room ‘Gimme a pack of Kool cigarettes, will ya?’” Couldn’t get into Hurtwood! Left it too late, poor lamb! What a shame! Hurtwood was the Sixth Form of her dreams, the best in the world for the Performing and Creative arts and brilliant academically, too. How she longed to be part of that cosy, inspiring community... but alas, too late... too late.

So don’t delay – contact me now – or scream for the rest of your life! Cosmo Jackson T: 01483 279000 E: [email protected] www.hurtwoodhouse.com