Impacts of the Rohingya Refugee Influx on Host Communities / Page 1 Table of Contents
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Impacts of the Rohingya Refugee November 2018 Impacts of the Rohingya Refugee Influx on Host Communities / Page 1 Table of Contents Figures, tables and boxes 07 Foreword 15 Acronyms 16 Executive summary 19 Chapter 1. Introduction 35 Chapter 2. Rationale and methodology 37 2.1. Rationale 37 2.2. Approach 37 2.3. Methodology 38 2.3.1. Quantitative data collection 39 2.3.2. Qualitative data collection 39 2.3.3. Secondary sources 40 2.4. Limitations 40 Chapter 3. A baseline survey of the two districts prior to the refugee influx 43 3.1. Geographic characteristics: resource endowments, land utilization and 43 production 3.2. Demographic situation 44 3.3. Labour market 45 3.4. Occupation and employment 46 3.5. Income and consumption 49 3.6. Health and education 49 3.7. Infrastructure 50 3.8. Trade and investment 52 Impacts of the Rohingya Refugee Influx on Host Communities / Page 1 3.9. Headcount poverty 53 3.10. Social protection 53 Chapter 4. The Rohingya influx, GoB response and institutional set-up 55 4.1. The refugee population profile 56 4.1.1. Definition 56 4.1.2. Previous inflows, repatriation and remaining refugees 56 4.1.3. The latest influx 56 4.1.4. Demographic and other characteristics of refugees 56 4.2. Bangladesh government policy on the Rohingya and response 58 4.3. Organizational framework for the refugee crisis management 61 4.3.1. Critical public institutions engaged in managing the Rohingya crisis 61 4.3.2. Short-/medium-term response 61 4.3.3. From humanitarian assistance to recovery 63 4.3.4. DC Office–RRRC–ISCG coordination 63 Chapter 5. Socio-economic impacts of the Rohingya influx on host communities 67 5.1. Brief overview of sample households 67 5.2. Microeconomic impacts: Impacts on prices, wages and poverty incidence 71 5.2.1. Impacts on prices 71 5.2.2. Impacts on wages 73 5.2.3. Measuring poverty pre- and post-influx 74 5.2.4. Impacts of price changes alone on poverty 75 5.2.5. Impacts of wage changes alone on poverty 77 5.2.6. Combined impacts of wages and prices on poverty 79 5.2.7. Impacts on vulnerability 81 Page 2 / Impacts of the Rohingya Refugee Influx on Host Communities 5.2.8. Comparing male- and female-headed households 83 5.2.9. Estimating the impacts on wages and incomes using difference-in- 83 difference 5.2.10. Benefits from the refugee influx 84 5.3. Mesoeconomic impacts: Sector-specific impacts 84 5.3.1. Impacts on land and agricultural production 84 5.3.2. Impacts on fishing and related activities 85 5.3.3. Impacts on the environment 86 5.4. Macroeconomic impacts of the Rohingya refugee influx 88 5.4.1. Transactions between the refugee and host economies 89 5.4.2. Using the LEWIE methodology to assess the impact of interventions 90 5.5. Impact outlook in a situation of repatriation of Rohingya refugees 94 Chapter 6. Impacts on public service and public goods delivery of the 99 Rohingya influx in host communities 6.1. Development and expenditure context in Cox’s Bazar, pre-influx 99 6.2. The influx and the government response 100 6.2.1. Temporary settlement of the Rohingya 100 6.2.2. The District Administration’s response to the influx 100 6.3. Impacts of the influx on public service delivery 102 6.3.1. Impacts on governance 102 6.3.2. Impacts on solid waste management and WASH 104 6.3.3. Impacts on housing 106 6.3.4. Impacts on roads 106 6.3.5. Impacts on business infrastructure 108 6.3.6. Impacts on health services 108 6.3.7. Impacts on education services 109 Impacts of the Rohingya Refugee Influx on Host Communities / Page 3 6.4. Overall impacts on the poorest in the host communities and response 110 Chapter 7. Impacts on social safety nets of the Rohingya influx in host 111 communities 7.1. Key features of the Bangladesh social protection system 111 7.2. Key features of the Cox’s Bazar district social protection system 115 7.3. Designing social protection schemes for host communities 118 7.3.1. Beneficiary selection 118 7.3.2. NSSS schemes and their suitability for the host community 120 7.3.3. Intervention period 123 7.4. Designing social protection schemes for Rohingya adults 123 Chapter 8. Impacts on social cohesion 125 8.1. Impacts of the influx as perceived by host communities 125 8.2. Tensions related to security, crime and conflict 127 Chapter 9. A broad overview of support to host communities 129 9.1. Programmes currently underway in the target area 129 9.1.1. Livelihoods (including food security and the environment) 129 9.1.2. WASH and solid waste management 131 9.1.3. Health 133 9.1.4. Nutrition 133 9.1.5. Protection 133 9.1.6. Education 134 9.1.7. Disaster risk management 135 9.1.8. Communication with communities 135 9.2. Cost implications 141 Page 4 / Impacts of the Rohingya Refugee Influx on Host Communities 9.3. Current and planned public development projects in Cox’s Bazar 142 Chapter 10. Suggested programming for host communities 143 10.1. Learning from current programming 143 10.2. Suggested programming in response to socio-economic impacts 144 10.2.1. Widening livelihood support programmes for the host community 144 10.2.2. Strengthening local agricultural production 147 10.2.3. Providing informed analysis through primary data collection 148 10.3. Suggested programming in response to impacts on public service delivery 149 10.3.1. Civil administration 149 10.3.2. Governance 150 10.3.3. Infrastructure 151 10.3.4. Environment 152 10.3.5. Improving access to safe drinking water 154 10.3.6. Sanitation and waste management 155 10.3.7. Reviving educational activities in the aftermath of the refugee crisis 158 10.3.8. Community cohesion, confidence-building and conflict resolution 159 approaches 10.3.9. Developing a risk management system 160 10.4. An initial monitoring and evaluation framework for socio-economic and 160 public service delivery programming 10.5. Suggested schemes to respond to impacts on social safety nets 165 10.5.1. Scheme 1: UT natural resource depletion scheme 165 10.5.2. Scheme 2: UT family income support scheme 165 10.5.3. Other elements of Schemes 1 and 2 167 10.5.4. Scheme 3: Teknaf fishers income support scheme 167 10.5.5. Resource requirements 169 Impacts of the Rohingya Refugee Influx on Host Communities / Page 5 10.5.6. Expansion of existing schemes 170 10.6. Proposed employment schemes for Rohingya refugees 170 10.7. Capacity assessment 171 Chapter 11. Conclusions 173 References 175 Annexes Annex 1. Survey respondents 184 Annex 2. Demographic data 193 Annex 3. Social account matrices and their construction for 2017 197 Annex 4. Social protection schemes in Coxes Bazar 209 Annex 5. Social safety net questions in our survey 214 Annex 6. Social protection selection and targeting 216 Annex 7. An overview on the costs and benefits of the suggested 223 interventions in response to socio-economic and public service delivery impacts Annex 8. Additional tables 225 Page 6 / Impacts of the Rohingya Refugee Influx on Host Communities Figures, tables and boxes Figure ES.1. Effects of wage changes on headcount poverty (left) and poverty 23 gap rate (right) (%) Figure ES.2. Number of poor and vulnerable households in Teknaf and Ukhiya 23 Figure ES.3. Falling water tables in Ukhiya and Teknaf (metres) 24 Figure ES.4. Firewood requirements under different scenarios (thousand 27 tonnes) Figure ES.5. Costs of LPG cooking fuel under different scenarios (US$ million) 28 Figure ES.6. Annual water requirements for refugees under different scenarios 28 (litres) Figure ES.7. Duration of stay and cost for the refugee crisis (US$ million) 29 Figure 1.1. Refugee numbers and host country GDP per capita 35 Figure 3.1. Uses of land, Bandarban and Cox’s Bazar districts, Chattogram 43 division and Bangladesh 2015–2016 (%) Figure 3.2. Land area, reserve forest and riverine area in Cox’s Bazar district 44 (km2) Figure 3.3. Labour force participation rates, Bandarban and Cox’s Bazar 45 districts (%) Figure 3.4. Labour force participation rate, Teknaf and Ukhiya upazilas, Cox’s 46 Bazar district and Bangladesh (%) Figure 3.5. Intensity of cropping, Bandarban and Cox’s Bazar districts, 47 Chattogram division and Bangladesh (%) Figure 3.6. Employment by economic sector, Teknaf and Ukhiya upazilas, Cox’s 47 Bazar and Bandarban districts, Chattogram division and Bangladesh (%) Figure 3.7. Ranking of districts by per capita income, Bandarban and 48 Cox’s Bazar districts, 2016 (US$) Figure 3.8. Daily average wage rate for agricultural labour without and with 48 food, by sex, Bandarban and Cox’s Bazar districts, Chattogram division and Bangladesh (Tk.), April–May 2016 Figure 3.9. Status of nutrition, Bandarban and Cox’s Bazar districts, 49 Chattogram division and Bangladesh (%) Figure 3.10. Literacy rates, by sex, Teknaf and Ukhiya upazilas, Bandarban and 50 Cox’s Bazar districts, Chattogram division and Bangladesh (%) Impacts of the Rohingya Refugee Influx on Host Communities / Page 7 Figure 3.11. Electricity connectivity and other sources of lighting at home, 51 Teknaf and Ukhiya upazilas, Bandarban and Cox’s Bazar districts, Chattogram division and Bangladesh (% of households) Figure 3.12. Water and sanitation indicators, Teknaf and Ukhiya upazilas, 52 Bandarban and Cox’s Bazar districts, Chattogram division and Bangladesh (% of households) Figure 3.13.