An Alternative Vision for Myanmar's Power Sector

AN ALTERNATIVE VISION FOR MYANMAR’S POWER SECTOR WWW.WWF.ORG.MM

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Myanmar’s power sector in numbers Levelized Cost of EnergyLevelized forof Cost . 4 Figure Three Scenarios

2049

2047

2045

2043

2041

2039

2037 2035

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strengthen cooperation with Myanmar’s neighbours consumption electricity Myanmar’s with cooperation tostrengthen optimise Theand benefits production, safeguard use to environmentaland services society. and of sustainable Renewable energy, properly exploited, can achieve a a can it ofnumber objectives: properly achieve can exploited, energy, Renewable thedependenceaccess universal nation’s fuels, fossil on reduce significantly accelerate ensure to electricity, that is, provide enough electricity don’t lights go out. the allat times sure toenoughprovide electricity make that is, 140 120 100 LCOE ($/MWh) LCOE

PAGE WIDTH: 207MM BECAUSE FOLDED INSIDE FOLDED BECAUSE 207MM WIDTH: PAGE Figure 4. Levelized Cost of Energy for Three Scenarios WWF - The outgoing government has understandably sought to meet growing energy needs Myanmar with low-cost investments. The Myanmar Energy Master Plan places great emphasis on

deriving energy from coal-fired power plants and big dams, despite the long-term risks and massive environmental consequences associated with these methods. April 2016

But it is precisely because Myanmar has been left so far behind that it now has the chance to leapfrog the fossil fuel-based electricity era that started over 130 years ago and

embrace the renewable energy era.

After decades of economic and political isolation, Myanmar Figure 2 Peak Demand 25,000 Myanmar has the opportunity to become a leader in clean, is open for business. Encouraged by the smooth transition to Projection from 2015 onwards renewable energy. Renewable energy sources such as sun, of Business as Usual BAU CLEAN ENERGY FOR democracy, investors are pouring in and the country stands 100% RENEWABLE wind, geothermal, biomass, and ocean energy are plentiful Scenario (BAU), Sustainable poised for rapid development. Energy Scenario (SES) and 20,000 SES and, as only 32 per cent of the population has access to grid Advanced SES electricity, there is opportunity to leapfrog and embrace the MYANMAR In the race to catch up with its neighbours, Myanmar finds ASES ENERGY BY 2050 best technologies now. itself in a tough balancing act. How will it procure the energy 15,000 it needs to sustain its development? Should it follow the path of many developed countries The alternative vision shows that it is technically and economically feasible to achieve 100 and burn fossil fuels, or import costly nuclear power stations? Or should it make use of its per cent renewable energy in Myanmar by 2050. Not only is it possible, but renewable enormous potential for renewable resources? 10,000 energy makes economic sense: Prices are decreasing, especially photovoltaic(PV) and wind energy, energy derived from renewable sources has the potential to meet our electricity Myanmar has a unique opportunity to avoid mistakes made by others and catch up needs many times over, even allowing for fluctuations in supply and demand. with countries that have already forged ahead in harnessing renewable and sustainable Peak Demand (MW) energy. Rather than relying on heavily polluting high-carbon fossil fuel power generation, 5,000 Renewable energy, properly exploited, can achieve a number of objectives: it can Figure 2 Peak Demand Projection from unsustainable hydropower projects or risky and costly nuclear power, Myanmar can leverage significantly reduce the nation’s dependence on fossil fuels, accelerate universal access its rich endowment of renewable resources such as sun, wind, water, geothermal, biomass, 2015 onwards of Business as Usual to electricity, ensure stable electricity prices for decades to come, increase job creation, and ocean energy. 0 Scenario (BAU), Sustainable Energy strengthen cooperation with Myanmar’s neighbours to optimise electricity consumption Scenario (SES) and Advanced SES and production, and safeguard environmental services and benefits to society. The use of

By seizing these opportunities, Myanmar can take a giant leap into a better future for all its 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 sustainable power can ensure electricity cost stability and maintain system security – that is, citizens. provide enough electricity at all times to make sure the lights don’t go out. There are several reasons to embrace renewable energy: Myanmar has a unique opportunity to avoid mistakes made by others and catch up Only 32 per cent of Myanmar households have access to • Solar and wind technologies are the fastest solution for meeting the rapid growth in with countries that have alreadygrid electricity, forged aheadwhile the in rest harnessing of the population renewable either hasand energy demand (Solar PV and wind projects could be built in months while fossil fuel, © WWF-Myanmar / Andre Malerba THE TIMEsustainable TO energy. ACT Rather nothan access relying or must on rely heavily on unreliable polluting or badly high maintained-carbon fossil fuel nuclear and hydropower projects would take several years.) diesel micro-grids and small solar systems. The absence • Hydropower can have severe social and environmental impacts. It can destroy entire power generation, unsustainableof standards hydropower or maintenance projects means or that risky these and sources costly are nuclear IS NOW fisheries and the livelihoods that depend on them. power, Myanmar can leveragecurrently its rich erratic. endowment Most electricity of renewable is generated resources by hydropower such as resources and by burning fossil fuels. There• A switch are toseve renewablesral reasonsis necessary to to mitigate embrace climate change, renewable the effects of which energy: are sun, wind, water, geothermal, biomass, and ocean energy. already being felt in Myanmar, the world’s second most vulnerable country to climate The outgoing government has understandably sought to meet growing energy needs with change. low-cost investments. The Myanmar Energy Master Plan places great emphasis on deriving By seizing these opportunities, Myanmar can take a giant leap into a better future energy from coal-fired power plants and big dams, despite the long-term risks and massive • FossilSolar fuel plants and are anwind uncertain technologies investment and will onlyare become the morefastest uncertain. solution for meeting the rapid growth environmental consequences associated with these methods. for all its citizens. The study shows that a diverse mix of renewable sources can meet 100 per cent of Myanmar’s But it is precisely because Myanmar has been left so far behind that it now has the chance to electricity demandin energy by 2050. Thedemand scenario presented (Solar by IESPV has and at its corewind two principle projects energy could be built in months while leapfrog the fossil fuel-based electricity era that started over 130 years ago and embrace the Thetends: studyRationalizing shows demand thatby improving a diverse energy efficiency mix andof reducingrenewable wasteful use sources of can meet 100 per cent of renewable energy era. energy, andfossil maximize fuel, the use nuclearof electricity produced and hydropower by renewables. projects would take several years.) Figure 1. Solar (left) and wind Myanmar’s electricity demand by 2050. The scenario presented by IES has at its core (right) potential of Myanmar.  (ref: IRENA) Figure 3. Capacity Mix Projection Hydropower can have severe social and environmental impacts. It can destroy (MW and %) for Sustainable two principle energy tends: Rationalizing demand by improving energy efficiency and Energy Scenario entire fisheries and the livelihoods that depend on them. reducing wasteful use of energy, and maximize the use of electricity produced by  A switch to renewables is necessary to mitigate climate change, the effects of renewables. which are already being felt in Myanmar, the world’s second most vulnerable 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 3%0% 5% 5% 4% 3% 9% country to climate change. 90% 22% 5% 3% 31% 7% 80% 32% 70,000 2%  Fossil fuel plants are an uncertain investment and will only 0%become34% more 70% 13% 60,000 41%

uncertain. 60% 42% 50,000 5% 21% 0% 50% 40,000 19% 7% Capacity Mix Capacity 40% 0% 60% 30,000 68% 6% 0% Capacity MW Capacity 30% 7% 22% Figure 1. Solar (left) and wind (right) potential of Myanmar. (ref: IRENA) 20,000 20% 41% 20% 23% 1% 10,000 0% 10% 13% 10% 0% 5% 4% 0% 0 0% 0% 0%1% 1%0% 2% 2%0% 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 The time to act is now Offgrid Coal Hydro Gas Offgrid Coal Hydro Gas Wind Wind Diesel/FO Nuclear Bio Only 32 per cent of Myanmar households have access to grid electricity, while the rest of Diesel/FO Nuclear Bio Solar CSP Solar CSP Hydro ROR Battery Battery Hydro ROR Geothermal Ocean Pump Storage Pump Storage Geothermal Ocean the population either has no access or must rely on unreliable or badly maintained Figure 3. Capacity Mix Projection (MW and %) for Sustainable Energy Scenario diesel micro-grids and small solar systems. The absence of standards or maintenance means that these sources are currently erratic. Most electricity is generated by hydropower resources and by burning fossil fuels. Power Sector Vision: 100% Renewable Energy By 2050

Myanmar has the opportunity to become a leader in clean, renewable energy. Renewable

energy sources such as sun, wind, geothermal, biomass, and ocean energy are plentiful and, as only 32 per cent of the population has access to grid electricity, there is opportunity to leapfrog and embrace the best technologies now.

WWF’s Energy Report shows that it is technically and economically feasible to achieve 100 per cent renewable energy in Myanmar by 2050. Not only is it possible, but renewable energy makes economic sense: Prices are decreasing, especially photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy, energy derived from renewable sources has the potential to meet our electricity needs many times over, even allowing for fluctuations in supply and demand.

Myanmar -