SOUTH ASIA REGIONAL INITIATIVE FOR ENERGY INTEGRATION 1 BIMSTEC Energy Outlook 2030 SOUTH ASIA REGIONAL INITIATIVE FOR ENERGY INTEGRATION BIMSTEC Energy Outlook SOUTH ASIA REGIONAL INITIATIVE FOR ENERGY INTEGRATION 2 BIMSTEC Energy Outlook 2030 The report is prepared by: SARI/EI Project Secretariat Study and Research Team Mr VK Kharbanda, Project Director Mr Rajiv Ratna Panda, Program Coordinator Mr Nikhil, Research Assistant December 2017 Disclaimer This study is made possible by the support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The content of this study does not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe) does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use. 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Any changes and updates made in the data/information after August 2017 has not been incorporated as a part of this study. However, some data/information from the world development indicator database has been sourced till November 2017. This study analysis and report concluded in the month of December 2017. The report and its findings do not necessarily reflect the views of the SARI/EI Project Secretariat. The report can be considered as a base document for further analysis and it aims to stimulate further discussion and analysis for accelerating regional energy/electricity cooperation and facilitating/advancing Cross Border Electricity Trade in the BIMSTEC countries—Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. ©Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe) 2017. All rights reserved. Do not copy or quote without prior permission. 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IRADe-SARI-10 (2017) SOUTH ASIA REGIONAL INITIATIVE FOR ENERGY INTEGRATION 3 BIMSTEC Energy Outlook 2030 SOUTH ASIA REGIONAL INITIATIVE FOR ENERGY INTEGRATION BIMSTEC Energy Outlook 2030 Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe) December 2017 SOUTH ASIA REGIONAL INITIATIVE FOR ENERGY INTEGRATION 4 BIMSTEC Energy Outlook 2030 SOUTH ASIA REGIONAL INITIATIVE FOR ENERGY INTEGRATION 6 BIMSTEC Energy Outlook 2030 List of Figures Figure 1: Regional Groupings—South Asia and Southeast Asia 10 Figure 2: BIMSTEC Evolution—Timeline for the Energy Sector 13 Figure 3: BIMSTEC Institutional Structure 15 Figure 4: BIMSTEC Countries—Profile, 2016 16 Figure 5: BIMSTEC Profile—Country-Wise Break-Up, 2016 17 Figure 6: GDP Growth Rate in the BIMSTEC, ASEAN and SAARC Regions 18 Figure 7: BIMSTEC’s GDP Growth 19 Figure 8: Per Capita GDP in the BIMSTEC Region 19 Figure 9: GDP Forecast for BIMSTEC 20 Figure 10: Sector-Wise GDP Break-Up 21 Figure 11: FDI Trends in BIMSTEC 24 Figure 12: Trade Dependency Ratio 25 Figure 13: BIMSTEC Country Profile 26 Figure 14: Per Capita Primary Energy Supply and Consumption in the BIMSTEC Region 27 Figure 15: Primary Energy Supply in the BIMSTEC Region—Fuel-Wise (Mtoe) 28 Figure 16: Energy Access and Per Capita Consumption in the BIMSTEC Region 29 Figure 17: Electricity Generation Mix (GW) in the BIMSTEC Region 31 Figure 18: Installed Generation Capacity and Supply 30 Figure 19: Fuel-Wise Break-Up of Installed Capacity, 2016 30 Figure 20: Cross-Border Electricity Trade in the BIMSTEC Region 22 Figure 21: Private ParticipationiIn Energy (Current US$ Million) 32 Figure 22: Cross-Border Interconnections in the BIMSTEC Region 34 Figure 23: Total Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe) in Bangladesh 35 Figure 24: Total Primary Energy Supply (Mtoe) in Bangladesh 36 Figure 25: Installed Capacity (MW) in Bangladesh 39 Figure 26: Peak Demand Supply Scenario (MW) in Bangladesh 40 Figure 27: Transmission System Profile (cKM) in Bangladesh 40 Figure 28 Bangladesh Power Import (MW) from BIMSTEC Countries by 2040 41 Figure 29: Evolution of the Electricity Sector in Bangladesh 43 Figure 30: Institutional Framework in Bangladesh 44 Figure 31: Total Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe) in Bhutan 45 Figure 32: Total Primary Energy Supply (Mtoe) in Bhutan 46 Figure 33: Installed Capacity (MW) in Bhutan 48 Figure 34: Peak Demand (MW) in Bhutan 48 Figure 35: Evolution of the Electricity Sector in Bhutan 50 Figure 36: Institutional Framework in Bhutan 51 Figure 37: Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe) in India 52 Figure 38: Total Primary Energy Supply (Mtoe) in India 53 Figure 39: Installed Capacity (MW) in India 55 Figure 40: Energy Requirement (GWh) in India 56 Figure 41: Peak Demand-Supply Gap (MW) in India 56 Figure 42: Transmission Network Profile (cKM) in India 57 Figure 43: Evolution of the Electricity Sector in India 60 Figure 44: Institutional Framework in India 61 Figure 45: Total Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe) in Myanmar 63 Figure 46: Total Primary Energy Supply (Mtoe) in Myanmar 64 Figure 47: Installed Capacity (MW) in Myanmar 65 Figure 48: Energy Requirement (GWh) in Myanmar 66 Figure 49: Evolution of the Electricity Sector in Myanmar 67 SOUTH ASIA REGIONAL INITIATIVE FOR ENERGY INTEGRATION 7 BIMSTEC Energy Outlook 2030 Figure 50: Institutional Framework in Myanmar 68 Figure 51: Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe) in Nepal 70 Figure 52: Total Primary Energy Supply (Mtoe) in Nepal 70 Figure 53: Installed Capacity (MW) in Nepal 72 Figure 54: Electricity Supply (GWh) in Nepal 72 Figure 55: Electricity Demand (GWh) in Nepal 73 Figure 56: Evolution of the Electricity Sector in Nepal 75 Figure 57: Institutional Framework in Nepal 76 Figure 58: Total Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe) in Sri Lanka 77 Figure 59: Total Primary Energy Supply (Mtoe) in Sri Lanka 78 Figure 60: Installed Capacity (MW) in Sri Lanka 80 Figure 61: Peak Demand (MW) in Sri Lanka 80 Figure 62: Evolution of the Electricity Sector in Sri Lanka 82 Figure 63: Institutional Framework in Sri Lanka 83 Figure 64: Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe) in Thailand 84 Figure 65: Primary Energy Supply (Mtoe) in Thailand 84 Figure 66: Installed Capacity (MW) in Thailand 86 Figure 67: Power Generation by Fuel Type in Thailand 86 Figure 68: Electricity Consumption and Supply (GWh) in Thailand 87 Figure 69: Transmission System Profile (cKM) in Thailand, 2015 88 Figure 70: Evolution of the Electricity Sector in Thailand 91 Figure 71: Institutional Framework in Thailand 92 Figure 72: Total Primary Energy Supply (Mtoe) in the BIMSTEC Region 94 Figure 73: Country-wise Primary Energy Supply (Mtoe) in the BIMSTEC Region 95 Figure 74 Resource-Wise Generation Capacity (GW) in the BIMSTEC Region 96 Figure 75: Country-Wise Generation Capacity (GW) in the BIMSTEC Region 97 Figure 76: Renewable Capacity Addition Outlook (GW) in the BIMSTEC Region 98 Figure 77: Fuel-Wise Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe) in the BIMSTEC Region 100 Figure 78: Country-Wise Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe) in the BIMSTEC Region 100 Figure 79: Peak Demand (GW) in the BIMSTEC Region 101 Figure 80: Proposed Cross-Border Interconnection Capacities by 2026-27 103 Figure 81: Proposed Cross-Border Interconnection Capacities by 2031-32 104 Figure 82: BIMSTEC: Required Cross Border Power Transmission Interconnection Capacity (in 49.4 GW) by 2031-32 for Cross Border Electricity Trade 105 List of Tables Table 1: Trends in GDP Growth 20 Table 2: Key Country-Level Indicators, 2016 22 Table 3: Key Trade Indicators, 2016 22 Table 4: FDI Inflows in Select RegIonal Trade Groupings 23 Table 5: FDI Trends in BIMSTEC, 2016 23 Table 6: BIMSTEC Resource Potential 27 Table 7: Export and Import of Electricity by BIMSTEC Countries, 2016 31 Table 8: Resource Potential in Thailand 85 Table 9: Existing Cross-Border Interconnections in Thailand 89 Table 10: Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel (Mtoe) in the BIMSTEC Region 93 Table 11: Installed Capacity (GW) in the BIMSTEC Region 96 Table 12: Total Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe) in the BIMSTEC Region 99 Table 13: Investment Potential (US$ Billion) in the BIMSTEC Region 108 SOUTH ASIA REGIONAL INITIATIVE FOR ENERGY INTEGRATION 8 BIMSTEC Energy Outlook 2030 SOUTH ASIA REGIONAL INITIATIVE FOR ENERGY INTEGRATION 9 BIMSTEC Energy Outlook 2030 1. About the Study The BIMSTEC Energy Outlook is a comprehensive study, which not only deals with the current energy situation in the BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) region but also focusses on the ‘Energy Sector outlook’ from now until 2030. The study covers all the seven countries of the region: Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand. This is the first time that such a major study has been undertaken for the BIMSTEC region. The report contains substantial comparative data, detailed sectoral analyses, estimates and projections. It also traces the economic and political background of BIMSTEC in the Introduction and examines the impact of the regional integration process on the region’s energy prospects.