National Seminar on Climate Change and Coastal Ocean Processes (CCCOP-2019) 4-5 July 2019 Organized by Ocean Society of India At
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National Seminar on Climate Change and Coastal Ocean Processes (CCCOP-2019) (Co-sponsored by India Meteorological Department, Govt. of India) 4-5 July 2019 Organized by Ocean Society of India at Centre for Atmosphere Sciences Indian Institute of Technology Delhi Hauz Khas, New Delhi-110016 Sponsors India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi, MoES, Government of India Centre for Marine Living Resources and Ecology (CMLRE), Kochi, MoES, Government of India CENTRE FOR MARINE LIVING RESOURCES AND ECOLOGY MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES, GOVERNMENT OF INDIA National Centre for Earth Science Studies (NCESS), Thiruvananthapuram, MoES, Government of India Science and Engineering Research Board (SERB), New Delhi, Government of India Department of Science and Technology (DST), New Delhi, Government of India National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research (NCPOR), Goa, MoES, Government of India Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, MoES, Government of India Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Hyderabad, MoES, Government of India National Centre for Coastal Research (NCCR), Chennai MoES, Government of India National Institute of Ocean Technology (NIOT), Chennai MoES, Government of India National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI), Hyderabad, Government of India National Seminar on Climate Change and Coastal Ocean Processes (CCCOP-2019) (Co-sponsored by India Meteorological Department, Govt. of India) 4-5 July 2019 Organized by Ocean Society of India at Centre for Atmosphere Sciences Indian Institute of Technology Delhi Hauz Khas, New Delhi-110016 Foreword It gives me an immense pleasure that Ocean Society of India (OSI) under the aegis of the current Governing Council is organizing a National Seminar on Climate Change and Coastal Ocean Processes (CCCOP-2019) during 4-5th July 2019 at Centre for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS), IIT Delhi. Coastal marine systems are one among the most ecologically and socio- economically vital ecosystems on the planet. Given their regional and global importance, these environments are a major focus of concern, as they are highly vulnerable to the perturbations that may be natural or anthropegenic. It is generally accepted that the climate change induced by the human activities would profoundly affect the coastal ocean and the vast and increasing populations that dwell along the coast for their livelyhood. Therefore, a better understanding of this environmental setting is imperative for reasons that have direct bearing on ecosystems, coastal management, navigation, defense, fisheries and weather forecasting. Continuous updation of global ocean observations suggested that the earth’s climate system undergoes changes naturally across a range of temporal scales including seasonal cycles, inter-annual patterns such as the ENSO, inter-decadal cycles such as the North Atlantic and Pacific decadal oscillations and multi-millenial scale changes such as glacial to inter-glacial transitions. This natural variability is reflected in the evolutionary adaptations of species and large-scale patterns of bio-geography and the geological records. However, anthropogenic activities play an uncontestable role and directly influence the climate system. Anthropogenic climate forcing is seemingly mediated by greenhouse gases (predominantly CO) emissions. It is also known that elevated CO2 and the resultant increase in the global mean temperature have a cascading effect on physical and biogeochemical processes of marine systems. The recent increase in the cyclonic activity in the Arabian sea and the flash floods during the last monsoon in Kerala triggered a discussion under the auspices of OSI in Kochi last year. It recommended a series of actions including detailed studies and a more comprehensive dialogue on the way forward. As the modelling studies require systematic data collection, continuous updation and near validation, a regular exchange of results amongst the stakeholders is very important for the better understanding of the coastal hazards and the ecosystems. Having recognised the need as above the OSI held discussions with the CAS experts of IIT, Delhi and arrived at a decision to jointly hold a seminar on this area of topical interest. OSI takes this opportunity to extend its sincere thanks to the organisers from IIT, Delhi and their associated staff. Special thanks to all the institutes under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Department of Science and Technology and other agencies of national importance that came forward to support this event. We are overwhelmed by the fact that the major players of the coastal ocean and allied subjects have expressed their readiness to participate and contribute to the success of this National Seminar, CCCOP-2019. I am sure that this seminar facilitates such a discussion so that the deliberations will provide a platform for devising national strategies and suggest the way forward to address the possible impacts of climate change and the precautionary approach that country need to take. Dr. M. Sudhakar President, Ocean Society of India Director, CMLRE, Kochi Preface Coasts are often more scenic and contain abundant natural resources. India has a long coastline of about 7500km and about 30% of Indian population lives along within 10km from the coast. As a part of the global climate system, the oceans are profoundly affected by any climate change and are already responding in noticeable ways. Any changes in coastal geomorphological or dynamical coastal ocean processes, particularly, in perspective of global warming scenario, will have a direct impact on the coastal population. It is a well-known fact that the sea surface temperature (SST) is increasing as a result of global warming. The projected changes in the tropical cyclone activity is strongly correlated with the projected changes in tropical SST. This will result in increase of tropical cyclone potential intensity and hence probability of having stronger cyclones. Sea level rise near the coast is an important area of concern due to thermal expansion and net melting of land ice and sea ice. Some of the important processes, which affect the coastal inhabitants are storm surges generated by tropical cyclones, particularly, in view of climate change. Understanding of regional sea level rise with its variability and coastal ecosystem are important environmental drivers in a changing climate scenario. The Seminar focusses on recent developments in the application of numerical modelling and simulation in understanding coastal ocean processes and improving capabilities for their prediction. The Seminar covers probabilistic approaches and risk assessment, advanced numerical methods, climate change in the coastal ocean, physics-ecosystem interactions. It will also cover novel coastal oceanographic measurements and analysis techniques. The main thrust of the present Seminar is focused on ‘Climate Change and Coastal Ocean Processes (CCCOP-2019)’. Based on the thrust area, the following scientific themes are identified to address in more focused way. Climate change and coastal hazards Coastal currents, waves and tides Coastal erosion / accretion processes and their modelling Coastal ecosystem and their modelling Climate change impact on coastal ocean processes Adaptation to coastal hazards and climate change impacts The CCCOP-2019 has received an overwhelming response, especially from the research students and early career scientists. A total 45 abstracts are selected for oral presentations including 15 invited talks from renowned scientists working in various areas covering all the themes of the Seminar. This Seminar provides a platform to bring together scientists, academicians, researchers, engineers, technologists in addressing some of the issues related to the thrust area. It is expected from the deliberations that a road map to improve prediction capability of the coastal ocean processes as it is also becoming increasingly important in view of the climate change. We welcome all the participants of CCCOP-2019 to IIT Delhi to make this event a scientifically memorable National Seminar. We appreciate and thank India Meteorological Department for co- sponsoring this important event of national importance. We also thank all the other sponsors who have extended their support to make this event to happen at IIT Delhi. Lastly, we appreciate very much and thank the Ocean Society of India (OSI) for selecting to organize this Seminar at IIT Delhi. Prof A D Rao, Convener and Vice-President of OSI Prof Vimlesh Pant, Co-convener Ocean Society of India Governing Council Members: 2018-2020 President Dr Maruthadu Sudhakar Vice Presidents Dr K V. Jayachandran Dr A D Rao General Secretary Dr C. Revichandran Joint Secretaries Dr Jayakumar Seelam Dr Tata Sudhakar Treasurer Dr Mani Murali Members Dr M.A. Atmanand Dr M. Baba Dr V. Sanil Kumar Dr C. V. K Prasad Rao Dr N. P. Kurian Dr Roxy Mathew Koll Dr R. Venkatesan Dr Pratima kessarkar Ex-Officio Members Dr M. V. Ramana Murthy Dr P. Chandramohan National Seminar on Climate Change and Coastal Ocean Processes (CCCOP-2019) National Advisory Committee Dr M Rajeevan, Secretary, MoES, Chairman Dr V Ramgopal Rao, Director, IIT Delhi Dr K J Ramesh, DGM, IMD, New Delhi Dr S C Shenoi, Director, INCOIS Dr M A Atmanand, Director, NIOT, Chennai Dr M V Ramana Murty, Director, NCCR, Chennai Dr M Ravichandran, Director, NCAOR, Goa Dr N P Rao, Director, NCESS, Trivandrum Dr S K Singh, Director, NIO, Goa Dr E N Rajagopal, Head, NCMRWF, New Delhi Dr M Baba, Former Director,