Demographic Projections for France and French Regions / Departments to 2030
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Population, family 1 Demographic projections for France and French regions / departments to 2030 Chantal Brutel, Laure Omalek* Whatever the prevailing assumptions about forthcoming mortality, fertility and migration trends, one thing is sure, France’s population is going to age: according to the central model, which involves extrapolating the trends witnessed over the past two decades, the proportion of people aged 60 or above will rise to 31.1% in 2030 versus 20.6% in 2000. This phenomenon will be more or less marked across France’s regions and departments owing in part to internal migratory movements. The ageing of the population will affect most the less urbanised departments of Central and Western France and of the Massif Central region, as well as the Northeast of the country. It will be less marked along the Mediterranean coast, in the Rhône-Alpes region and in the Île-de-France region. Among France’s overseas territories, only Guyana will be relatively unaffected. ver the past thirty years, next thirty years (see figure 1 and During any given year, the popula- the population of main- box 1 for the methods used in the tion in a given territory changes O land France has grown projections). According to the cen- according to the number of births, steadily, from 50.5 million inhabit- tral model used for population deaths and the net migratory bal- ants in 1970 to 58.7 million in projections, France’s population ance. The projections we’re con- 2000. According to the latest pop- will hit 64 million by 2030; even if cernedwitharebasedon ulation projections of INSEE the most favourable fertility rate assumptions about the forthcom- based on the 1999 census, modelisused(2.1childrenper ing trends for each of these three France’s population growth is woman), the population will components. These assumptions most likely to slow down over the scarcely exceed 66 million by then. are based on the trends observed * Chantal Brutel works for INSEE’s Demographic Surveys and Studies unit and Laure Omalek works for INSEE’s Territorial Studies unit. 13 1 Population, family Figure 1 – Population projections for France between 2000 and 2050 Natural growth Population on the Proportion of Proportion of Proportion Male life Female life Projection differential first of January 0-19 year olds 20-59 year olds aged 60 or over expectancy at expectancy at horizon for the year (in thousands) (in %) (in %) (in %) birth (in years) birth (in years) (in thousands) Main model: total fertility rate of 1.8 children per woman, trend-based mortality, net migration balance of 50,000 2000 58,744 25.6 53.8 20.6 209.5 75.2 82.9 2010 61,061 23.8 53.1 23.1 145.9 77.3 84.9 2020 62,734 22.5 50.2 27.3 86.6 79.2 86.7 2030 63,927 21.3 47.6 31.1 45.4 81.0 88.3 2040 64,468 20.6 45.9 33.5 - 56.2 82.7 89.7 2050 64,032 20.1 44.8 35.1 /// 84.3 91.0 High mortality model: total fertility rate of 1.8 children per woman, higher mortality, net migration balance of 50,000 2000 58 744 25.6 53.8 20.6 209.4 75.2 82.9 2010 61 037 23.8 53.1 23.1 139.4 77.2 84.6 2020 62 595 22.6 50.3 27.2 68.3 78.8 85.9 2030 63 537 21.4 47.8 30.8 10.3 80.3 86.8 2040 63 630 20.8 46.4 32.8 - 110.5 81.5 87.4 2050 62 624 20.5 45.7 33.7 /// 82.6 87.7 Low mortality model: total fertility rate of 1.8 children per woman, lower mortality, net migration balance of 50,000 2000 58 744 25.6 53.8 20.6 214.0 75.2 82.9 2010 61 161 23.7 53.0 23.2 162.1 77.5 85.4 2020 63 039 22.4 49.9 27.7 109.2 79.7 87.7 2030 64 466 21.1 47.2 31.7 73.0 81.9 89.9 2040 65 408 20.3 45.3 34.5 -1.5 84.0 92.0 2050 65 520 19.7 43.8 36.5 /// 86.0 94.0 High total fertility rate model: total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman, trend-based mortality, net migration balance of 50,000 2000 58 744 25,6 53,8 20,6 209,5 75,2 82,9 2010 61 383 24.2 52.8 23.0 221.4 77.3 84.9 2020 64 077 24.1 49.1 26.7 198.8 79.2 86.7 2030 66 413 23.8 46.3 30.0 169.4 81.0 88.3 2040 68 421 23.2 45.2 31.6 122.5 82.7 89.7 2050 69 968 23.4 44.6 32.1 /// 84.3 91.0 Low total fertility rate model: total fertility rate of 1.5 children per woman, trend-based mortality, net migration balance of 50,000 2000 58 744 25.6 53.8 20.6 175.3 75.2 82.9 2010 60 475 23.0 53.6 23.3 58.2 77.3 84.9 2020 61 090 20.4 51.5 28.0 -26.2 79.2 86.7 2030 61 107 18.6 48.8 32.6 -85.4 81.0 88.3 2040 60 173 17.6 46.5 35.9 -222.8 82.7 89.7 2050 57 979 16.6 44.7 38.7 /// 84.3 91.0 High net migration balance model: total fertility rate of 1.8 children per woman, trend-based mortality, net migration balance of 100,000 2000 58,744 25.6 53.8 20.6 209.5 75.2 82.9 2010 61,457 23.8 53.2 23.0 152.2 77.3 84.9 2020 63,717 22.6 50.4 27.0 97.8 79.2 86.7 2030 65,548 21.4 47.9 30.6 62.2 81.0 88.3 2040 66,777 20.7 46.3 33.0 -35.3 82.7 89.7 2050 67,059 20.3 45.2 34.5 /// 84.3 91.0 Scope: Mainland France. Source : INSEE, demographic projections (central model). 14 Population, family 1 Box 1 Methods and models used for the national and regional projections Demographic projections are gen- the age-related fertility rates to all months in the case of the most pes- erated by INSEE upon each popu- womenaged15to50whoarelikely simistic model, two months for the lation census. to have children in the area during central model and three months for the year under consideration. the most optimistic model. • Methods The factors used are first calculated Fertility models The national projections are based on census and public registry based on the components method data, and thereafter these factors are The irregular fluctuation of fertil- and as such must be distinguished projected year on year in accor- ity rates over time makes it harder from forecasts. Based on the gen- dance with the retained models. An to project this element. Over the der and age distribution of the adjustment is performed for each past twenty years, total fertility population on the 1st of January scenario so that the sum of all the rates have averaged out at 1.8 chil- 2000 (estimated on the basis of the regional populations excluding the dren per woman. We have there- 1999 census), the number of survi- French overseas territories is equal fore retained this rate as the vors on the 1st of January 2001 is to the national population. central fertility model. We also use calculated by factoring in the pro- a low fertility model involving a jected risk of dying of each genera- • Models rate of 1.5 children per woman, tion. The number of births during which is the prevailing rate in Ja- the year is then calculated by fac- Models retained for national pan and the European Union as a toring in the projected fertility projections whole nowadays. And finally, for rates per age group of women of our high fertility model, we use a childbearing age as well as the sur- Mortality models higher rate of 2.1 children per vival rates of the new-born chil- woman, which is the rate that is dren (see box 2). As a second step, Over the past thirty years there has needed to replenish the population the number of survivors in each been a clear and unmistakable trend in the long term. It should be age group is incremented with the for mortality rates to drop. Thus a noted that among the most recent projected net migratory balance projected trend-based mortality generations to have come to the per gender and age group. The model was adopted. This consists in end of their childbearing years, process is repeated year after year extrapolating over the next fifty none has produced less than two until the 1st of January of the pro- years the rate of decline of the risk of children per woman on average. jection horizon. dying for each gender and at each For each of the three fertility mod- age witnessed over the past thirty els, it is assumed that the average Regional and departmental pro- years. According to this model, life age of maternity will increase to 30 jections (including those for the expectancy at birth will be 81 years years then stabilise at that level French overseas territories) were for men and 88.3 years for women in from 2005 onwards.