An Air War Would Likely Be Tougher There Than What the US Saw in Serbia Or Libya

The Syria

QuestionBy John A. Tirpak, Executive Editor An air war would likely be tougher there than what the US saw in Serbia or Libya.

AP photo via Aleppo Media Center

Here: Syrian rebels stand in the rubble of a building damaged by government airstrikes on Feb. 13. Right: A Syrian L-39 strike aircraft fi res a rocket during an airstrike on Tel Rafat, a village north of Aleppo.

26 AIR FORCE Magazine / March 2013 JAN. 16, 2013— yria’s air forces seem to be facing one of two credible and practiced air defense system, others—including fates: either to be destroyed by a US or coalition some recent high-level Syrian defectors—suggest it is a paper air armada imposing a no-fl y zone on the country, tiger, neglected and ineffective. or be inherited by a loose alliance of rebel groups Assad’s regime has used attack helicopters, strike aircraft, after overthrowing the Bashar al-Assad regime. In medium bombers, and even Scud tactical ballistic missiles Sthe latter case, the victors may then use captured elements against opposition forces already—often indiscriminately of the air force to battle each other for ultimate control of and with heavy loss of civilian life. Although opposition the country. forces have made great gains during the two-year civil Either way, the disposition and condition of Syrian de- war and are, at this writing, within the capital of Damas- fenses—the Syrian Arab Air Force (SAAF) and Syrian Arab cus, Assad’s key asymmetric advantages have been heavy Air Defense Force (SAADF)—are of intense interest to the ground weapons— including tanks—and aircraft, chiefly US Air Force, which in one way or another may have to attack helicopters. engage them. The regime has been supplied with weapons and technical Opinions as to the strength and lethality of Syrian air assistance from both Iran and Russia. Opposition forces have defenses vary widely. While some public interest groups had the fi nancial backing of Saudi Arabia and other Persian that keep tabs on the Syrian order of battle describe a highly Gulf patrons. France, having recognized the opposition forces

Reuters photo by Goran Tomasevic

as the legitimate authority of Syria, has pledged to provide the rebels with weapons. Opposition forces have consistently asked NATO and the US to establish a no-fl y zone over Syria to prevent Assad from using his air force. Short of that, there has been discussion of establishing “safety” or “exclusion” zones within Syria—but not a nationwide no-fl y zone—where noncombatants could be secure from air or ground attack along the border with Turkey. In early December, the US Senate, by a 92-to-six vote, passed an amendment to the 2013 defense bill directing the Defense Secretary to develop plans for implementing a no-fl y zone over Syria. The amendment specifi ed targeting Assad’s forces’ ability “to use airpower against civilians and opposition groups in Syria.” The move followed many congressional calls for interven- tion, the most prominent from Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who has complained the US and its allies have stood by while

AIR FORCE Magazine / March 2013 27 Support from the US Air Force, in the form of intelligence, surveillance, and recon- naissance, as well as with aerial refueling, continued throughout the confl ict.

Reuters photo via SANA McCain predicted in November that Syrian air attacks on its own citizens would stop immediately if NATO imposed a no-fl y zone on the country and shot down just one aircraft. Though “they may like” Assad, McCain said, Syrian pilots “are not going to fl y into certain death.” McCain also voiced his support for a NATO decision to deploy Patriot missile batteries to Turkey, arguing they could be used to help enforce a no-fl y zone over Syria. NATO, however, has maintained that the deployment is for purely defensive purposes, possibly prompted in part by the shootdown of a Turkish RF-4 Phantom by Syrian air defense forces last summer.

Syria Is Not Libya Nearly two years into the Syrian upris- ing, opposition forces have taken govern- ment air bases and reached the suburbs of Damascus. The Assad regime has bombed suspected rebel-operating areas AP photo viaTurkish military in the region with its most powerful attack aircraft: Russian-made, swing-wing Su-24 Fencer bombers. It has dropped bombs within the Yarmouk refugee camp—which is home to more than 150,000 Palestin- ians—reportedly killing dozens of people and broadening the list of groups whose enmity Assad has earned. Besides bombing, the regime has re- sorted to attacks on rebel-held areas with Scud tactical ballistic missiles, armed with conventional warheads, and continued attacking rebels with armed helicopters and fi xed wing aircraft such as MiG-23s and L-39 Albatross counterinsurgency aircraft, which have been fi lmed making Top: Syrian air defenses include anti-aircraft missile launchers such as these, such attacks. shown in a 2011 live-fi re exercise. Above: Wreckage of a Turkish RF-4 Phantom shot down by Syrian forces. Syrian offi cials said the Turkish jet was fl ying in its airspace; Despite the similarities between the Turkish offi cials insist the jet was in international airspace. situation in Libya and that in Syria— an oppressive dictator resorts to wildly disproportionate force to suppress dis- tens of thousands of Syrians have been an operation modeled on the 2011 opera- sent—Libya is no direct analogy for killed by the Assad regime. tion in Libya. There, NATO’s imposition Syria, and imposing a no-fl y zone would The White House has countered that the of a no-fl y zone prevented Muammar be substantially more diffi cult. loose coalition of opponents to the Assad Qaddafi from using his aircraft to attack With 22.5 million people, Syria is far regime includes elements of al Qaeda and opposition forces. NATO then upped the more densely populated than Libya and other Islamists. The Obama Administration ante by attacking regime ground forces has a substantially larger air force and doesn’t want to provide those groups with moving toward the opposition forces—ef- air defense system than Libya had under weapons or an opportunity to gain power in fectively, though not offi cially, serving as Qaddafi . an infl uential state. It also wants more time the opposition’s air force. The strategy led A variety of open sources converge for sanctions and other diplomatic efforts to Qaddafi ’s ouster in seven months. His on a fi gure of about 450 fl yable combat to subdue the crisis, or to wait and see if regime was replaced by one seemingly aircraft in Syria’s inventory, including the rebels achieve victory on their own. appreciative of Western assistance. about a hundred reasonably capable air- In late November, McCain, speaking in In Libya, the US led for the fi rst few craft such as Russian MiG-29 fi ghters or Washington, D.C., said Assad’s regime can weeks, then turned over the preponderance older aircraft such as MiG-21s, upgraded be ousted “without boots on the ground,” in of kinetic attacks to its NATO partners. with more modern avionics. In addition, 28 AIR FORCE Magazine / March 2013 Syria has in recent years upgraded its air defense systems with modern radars and missiles, including “double digit” surface-to-air missile systems like the SA-22 Pantsir, a mobile SAM capable of engaging low-fl ying targets and even

precision munitions. Between 30 and 50 Reuters photo Youssef Boudlal by of the mobile systems were delivered, with more on order. In addition, Syria has large numbers of SA-2 through SA-6 missile batteries. Though largely fi xed-site weapons suscep- tible to jamming and anti-radiation missile attack, the older SAMs are still considered functional and potentially deadly. More problematic is the possible activa- tion of Russian S-300, or SA-10 Grumble, air defense systems considered analagous to the US Patriot system, with a range in excess of 50 miles and the ability to track and target multiple aircraft simultaneously. Russia has refused to agree to stop sup- plying Syria with spare parts, technical assistance, and other support for its air defenses, echoing Syria’s claim that the opposition forces are “terrorists” and not legitimate challengers for national author- ity. Russia, however, has conceded that Assad’s government may not be able to survive indefi nitely. The SA-22 (NATO code name Grey- hound) may be the system Syria used to shoot down the Turkish RF-4 recon- naissance jet that may or may not have entered Syrian airspace near Latakia last June. Syria offered a near-apology for the incident, suggesting its gunners thought the aircraft was Israeli. Though they con- demned the attack as unprovoked, neither NATO nor Turkey launched any retalia- tion. Turkey then requested the Patriots to prevent Syrian offensive use of missiles or aircraft over the border.

Syria Is Not Serbia, Either Some military observers suggested Top: A Syrian Air Force helicopter prepares to fi re a rocket during an August 2012 the RF-4 was testing Syrian air defenses, airstrike on Aleppo. Above: Before and after surveillance photos of the alleged Syr- while others have proposed the aircraft was ian nuclear reactor destroyed in a mission fl own by Israeli pilots in September 2007. conducting surveillance, to see if Syrian refugees to Turkish border camps were be- At a hearing of the Senate Armed Services 10 times more [air defense capability] ing pursued by military forces. Thousands Committee in March 2012, Chairman than we experienced in Serbia.” of such refugees have fl ed to Turkey to of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. In Serbia, NATO aircraft were vexed by escape Syrian government attacks. Martin E. Dempsey said the US military mobile SAM systems that hid throughout The Free Syrian Army—the name of the “can do just about anything we’re asked the confl ict, unexpectedly popping up often largest armed coalition opposing Assad to do” regarding Syria. enough to knock down several aircraft, and formed by dissident military offi cers He deferred specifi cs to a closed ses- including an F-117 stealth attack jet. in 2011—has claimed the downing of a sion, but said, “I’ll just say this about The last time the US engaged Syria’s number of Syrian Air Force jets, using [Syria’s] air defenses. ... They have ap- air defenses was in 1983, in retaliation a combination of captured anti-aircraft proximately fi ve times more sophisticated for Syrian missiles fi red from anti-aircraft guns and man-portable, shoulder-fi red air defense systems than existed in Libya, positions in Lebanon at US reconnaissance missiles captured when rebels took control covering one-fi fth of the terrain. All of jets. In that raid, the US launched attacks on of an air base. their air defenses are arrayed on their 20 targets and lost two carrier aircraft—an US military leaders have warned that western border, which is their population A-6 Intruder and an A-7 Corsair—to Syrian Syria shouldn’t be considered a pushover. center.” He added that Syria has “about air defense missiles. One pilot died and AIR FORCE Magazine / March 2013 29 his bombardier-navigator was captured Syria has about 80, of which almost 70 are In Libya, there was a clear demarcation and held for 30 days before his release deemed operational. There are also about between where regime forces were and was negotiated. 30 fl yable MiG-25 Foxbats, high-fl ying where the opposition forces were, making Syrian Air Force defections began last interceptors that some analysts suggest it easier to strike the loyalists from the air. June, when Col. Hassan Merei al-Hamade could be a threat to patrolling AWACS The war in Syria, by contrast, is marked broke away from a formation of MiG-21s or tanker aircraft. More than a hundred by fl uid battle lines within cities, changing and landed in Jordan, where he requested MiG-21s and a hundred MiG-23s are by the day, if not the hour. Striking Syr- political asylum. Other SAAF offi cers available, and Syria has been relying on ian ground forces from the air, according began appearing in opposition videos, the latter for ground attacks. to one Pentagon analyst, would require and the rebels claim more than a dozen In the March 2012 SASC hearing, “exquisite intelligence” and probably attack helicopter pilots have come over Dempsey said the US “almost unques- spotters on the ground. to their side since last summer. tionably” would have to take the lead in Furthermore, government-backed mi- In October, a retired Syrian general, any attack on Syria’s air defenses and litias that are not in uniform are also Akil Hashem, who supports the opposition airfields in order to pave the way for a fi ghting the rebels in Syria, making it and wants Western intervention in Syria, no-fly zone—a campaign that he agreed extremely hard to distinguish between claimed that a single US aircraft carrier and would probably take “several weeks.” the warring forces. combat jets from a nearby country could Only the US, he said, possesses the Alexander R. Vershbow, NATO’s deputy establish and maintain a no-fl y zone. An “electronic warfare capabilities neces- secretary general, told reporters last August analyst told UPI news service that Hashem sary to do that.” that Syria’s air defenses are “more formi- said the no-fl y zone could be established dable” than Libya’s but are nothing NATO just over opposition strongholds like No-Fly Zone Logistics “couldn’t handle.” However, he acknowl- Aleppo and Idlib, both near the Turkish While senior US military leaders pri- edged that NATO countries, hampered by border. Long-range missiles could keep vately express complete confi dence that a budget cuts, have been slow in restocking Syrian fi ghters at bay, he said. Syrian no-fl y zone could be established in the munitions they expended in Libya. Another former Syrian Air Force gen- relatively short order, the logistics would NATO members, he said, “recognize their eral who has joined the opposition—Maj. be a signifi cant challenge. responsibility” to have enough weaponry Gen. Mohammed Fares, a former cos- Short-range fi ghters would likely be on hand for “the next one, whatever it monaut—was quoted by Fox News in positioned at Incirlik AB, Turkey, not might be.” He also confi rmed that one November as saying air attacks against far from Syria’s northern border. More of the key lessons learned from Libya opposition forces are being carried out by fi ghters could be positioned at the British was that NATO European partners don’t only a third of the regime’s pilots because garrison of RAF Akrotiri on Cyprus. But maintain an adequate weapons inventory. Assad cannot count on the loyalty of the the presence of combat aircraft at both America’s NATO partners, running low on other two-thirds. He also said that while locations would displace aerial tankers, munitions, had to rely on US stocks for spare parts for the Syrian Air Force are which would have to be based much far- the bulk of the Libyan campaign. running low, Assad still has hundreds of ther away, assuming basing privileges are The American public is not enthused aircraft available for combat. Fox said it not granted by Jordan or Saudi Arabia. about the prospect of intervention in the was impossible to verify Fares’ comments. Basing aircraft in Iraq or Israel is not Syrian confl ict. A Washington Post-ABC In September 2007, Syria’s air de- considered a plausible scenario. News poll conducted in mid-December fenses suffered a humiliating defeat when Maintaining a no-fly zone would found some 73 percent of those polled Israeli aircraft successfully penetrated require tankers and AWACS or E-2C felt the US “should not get involved” in Syrian airspace and destroyed what the Hawkeye-like aircraft to maintain station the Syrian civil war, and nearly half disap- International Atomic Energy Agency off the Syrian coast along with fi ghters proved even of the Obama Administration’s had concluded was a nuclear reactor. available for a quick intercept of any recognition of the loose-knit opposition Operation Orchard saw Israeli F-15Is Syrian aircraft launched. group as the legitimate authority in Syria. (the equivalent of the USAF F-15E) and Senior USAF offi cials have said any However, the poll also showed that F-16Is attack the facility, leveling it. The engagement of the Syrian air defense support for intervention ratcheted up ability of Israel to get through Syrian air system would require the use of F-22 sharply—to 62 percent—if the intervention defenses—apparently undetected—led to stealth fi ghters, given the overlapping was confi ned to creating a no-fl y zone over an internal investigation in Syria, along radars and numbers of SAMs Syria fi elds the country. About the same percentage with Russia, whose SAM systems were in the western portion of the country. would want full US military intervention protecting the area. Besides land-based aircraft, the US if Assad used chemical weapons against Various aviation experts have sug- could use aircraft carriers to enforce the his own people, and the number rose to gested that Israel defeated the Syrian no-fl y zone. A US carrier air wing has 70 percent if Assad’s regime lost control air defenses with a cyber attack that only about 30 fi xed wing combat aircraft, of its chemical weapons. misdirected radars and other sensors away however, most of which would be F/A-18 In early December, based on intel- from the target. The remains of the reac- Hornet strike fi ghters, while about four ligence reports that the Syrian regime tor—which bore a strong resemblance to would be EA-6B Prowler or EA-18G was readying chemical weapons for use those constructed by North Korea—were Growler electronic attack aircraft. against the opposition, President Obama quickly cleared away and the remaining Dempsey, at the SASC hearing, urged issued stern warnings that Assad would hole fi lled in by the Syrian government, that any action be undertaken as part of a be “held accountable” for such an event. which denied there had been any military coalition. That way, Dempsey said, “we “The use of chemical weapons is and purpose at the site. increase our capability and capacity, but would be totally unacceptable,” Obama Syria’s Air Force is heavy with air-to-air also we’ve shown that that produces an said, and would represent a trigger for fi ghters. The most modern are MiG-29s: enduring outcome.” US involvement in the confl ict. I 30 AIR FORCE Magazine / March 2013