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Leinster Orbital Route Feasibility Study

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Leinster Orbital Route Feasibility Study National Roads Authority Project: Leinster Orbital Route Feasibility Study Final Report Draft Work in Progress March 2007 Roughan & O'Donovan – FaberMaunsell Alliance Arena House Arena Road Sandyford Dublin 18 Roughan & O’Donovan – FaberMaunsell Alliance Leinster Orbital Route Consulting Engineers Feasibility Study Leinster Orbital Route Feasibility Study Final Report Table of Contents Page Executive Summary ................................................................................................. v 1.0 Introduction .................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Overview .......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Format of the Study ......................................................................................... 2 2.0 Context of the Study Area ............................................................................. 5 2.1 Context of the Study Area ................................................................................ 5 2.2 Existing Development Patterns ........................................................................ 5 2.2.1 Employment and Industry ................................................................................ 5 2.3 Car Ownership and Travel Patterns................................................................. 7 2.3.1 Trends in Car Ownership ................................................................................. 7 2.3.2 Car Ownership Forecasts ................................................................................ 8 2.3.3 Population and Settlement ............................................................................. 10 2.4 Existing Traffic Patterns ................................................................................. 12 2.4.1 Overview ........................................................................................................ 12 2.4.2 M50 Dublin Ring Road ................................................................................... 13 2.4.3 National Primary Roads ................................................................................. 13 2.4.4 National Secondary Roads ............................................................................ 13 2.4.5 Regional and Local Roads ............................................................................. 14 2.5 Key Policies and Future Infrastructure ........................................................... 15 2.5.1 Overview ........................................................................................................ 15 3.0 Review of Planning Policy .......................................................................... 17 3.1 Overview ........................................................................................................ 17 3.2 Transport 21 .................................................................................................. 17 3.3 National Spatial Strategy 2002 - 2020 ........................................................... 18 3.4 Dublin Transportation Office – “Platform for Change” .................................... 19 3.5 Regional Planning Guidelines Greater Dublin Area 2004-2016 ..................... 20 3.6 Local Authority Development Plans ............................................................... 22 3.6.1 Town Bypasses ............................................................................................. 22 3.6.2 Development of Regional Connections .......................................................... 23 3.6.3 Additional Local Routes to Relieve M50 ........................................................ 23 4.0 Population and Employment Projections .................................................. 24 4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 24 Final Report – March 2007 Page ii Roughan & O’Donovan – FaberMaunsell Alliance Leinster Orbital Route Consulting Engineers Feasibility Study 4.2 Data issues .................................................................................................... 24 4.3 The National Population ................................................................................ 24 4.4 Study Area Population Projections ................................................................ 25 4.5 Regional Population Settlement Patterns ...................................................... 26 4.6 Projection of Regional Population Settlement Patterns ................................. 27 4.7 Population Projections for Major Towns in the Study Area ............................ 27 4.7.1 Indicative Population Growth Rates ............................................................... 27 4.7.2 Refinement of Population Growth Rates in Major Towns .............................. 28 4.8 Employment Projections for Major Towns in the Study Area ......................... 30 4.9 Summary and Conclusions ............................................................................ 32 5.0 Traffic Forecasting ...................................................................................... 33 5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 33 5.2 Traffic Model Development ............................................................................ 33 5.2.1 Boundary of the Traffic Model ........................................................................ 33 5.2.2 Base Year Model Development (2006) .......................................................... 35 5.2.3 Traffic Data Collection ................................................................................... 35 5.2.4 Development of Trip Matrices ........................................................................ 35 5.2.5 Model Calibration and Validation ................................................................... 36 5.2.6 Development of Future Year Matrices (2025) ................................................ 37 5.3 Assessment of Future Year Traffic Flows (Without Leinster Orbital) ............. 38 5.3.1 The M50 Dublin Ring ..................................................................................... 38 5.3.2 National Primary Roads ................................................................................. 38 5.3.3 National Secondary Roads ............................................................................ 39 5.3.4 Regional and Local Roads ............................................................................. 39 5.4 Conclusions ................................................................................................... 41 6.0 Constraints Study ........................................................................................ 43 6.1 Overview ........................................................................................................ 43 6.2 Other Relevant Local Road Proposals ........................................................... 43 6.2.1 Fingal County Council Road Network Proposals ........................................... 43 6.2.2 South Dublin County Council Road Network Proposals ................................ 44 6.3 Identification of Route Corridor ...................................................................... 45 6.3.1 Drogheda to Navan ........................................................................................ 45 6.3.2 Navan to Enfield ............................................................................................ 46 6.3.3 Enfield to Naas .............................................................................................. 46 6.4 Junction Strategy ........................................................................................... 47 7.0 Scheme Traffic Forecasting and Evaluation ............................................. 48 7.1 Overview ........................................................................................................ 48 7.2 Traffic Forecasting ......................................................................................... 48 7.2.1 Anticipated Scheme Flows (2025) ................................................................. 48 7.2.2 Connectivity between Regional Towns .......................................................... 50 7.3 Scheme Assessment ..................................................................................... 51 7.3.1 Integration ...................................................................................................... 53 7.3.2 Economy ........................................................................................................ 56 Final Report – March 2007 Page iii Roughan & O’Donovan – FaberMaunsell Alliance Leinster Orbital Route Consulting Engineers Feasibility Study 7.3.3 Environmental Impacts .................................................................................. 58 7.3.4 Road Safety ................................................................................................... 59 7.3.5 Accessibility and Social Inclusion .................................................................. 60 7.3.6 Conclusions of Scheme Assessment ............................................................. 60 8.0 Further Considerations ............................................................................... 62 8.1 The Role of Public Transport ........................................................................
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