Working for a Green Britain & Northern Ireland 2013–23

www.RenewableUK.com

Working for a Green Britain & Northern Ireland 2013–23 Employment in the UK Wind & Marine Energy Industries

September 2013

RUK13-026-05 Cambridge Econometrics (CE) is a The Institute for Employment Research IFF Research is a long-standing full- leading economics consultancy providing (IER) was established by the University service research agency set up in 1965, independent analysis to support of Warwick in 1981. The IER is one of and employing 55 staff. It specialises decision- and policy-makers in business Europe’s leading centres for research in in studies on employment, learning and and government in the UK and around the labour market field. Its work focuses skills, working regularly for government the world. upon the operation of labour markets departments and agencies including and socio-economic processes related BIS, DWP, Sector Skills Councils, CE has an extensive track record of to employment and unemployment Skills Development Scotland, the innovative quantitative analysis, including in the UK at national, regional and Skills Funding Agency, and the UK the development and application of local levels. It includes comparative Commission for Employment and Skills economic models to fields such as European research on employment and (UKCES). energy and environmental policy; labour training. The IER’s research fields involve market analysis and forecasting; and addressing major issues of socioeconomic IFF undertakes studies employing the regional development issues in the UK behaviour and policy in their local, national full spectrum of research methodologies, and Europe. and international setting. from qualitative studies involving depth interviews and focus groups, to large Past clients include, in the UK: the UK The work of the IER covers a wide range quantitative surveys using online, postal, Commission for Employment and Skills, of research-related activities; basic telephone, and face-to-face approaches. the Committee on Climate Change, and strategic research; labour market BIS and DECC. CE also carries out assessment and evaluation; household More information can be found at: analysis, including Impact Assessments, and employer surveys; technical Web: www.iffresearch.com/ for several Directorates General of the assistance and consultancy; and an Email: [email protected] European Commission. advanced study programme. Tel: 020 7250 3035

CE was established in 1978 to provide The IER provides a range of research commercial access to research in the and analytical services to customers University of Cambridge. The company in both the public and private sectors. is now majority-owned by a charity, the It has conducted major research Cambridge Trust for New Thinking in projects for all the main UK government Economics. departments as well as for various international organisations, including the More information can be found at: ILO, OECD, European Commission, and Web: www.camecon.com Cedefop. In recent years, in conjunction Email: [email protected] with Cambridge Econometrics, IER has Tel: 01223 533100 undertaken a number of projects on demand for green skills across Europe.

More information can be found at: Web: www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/ier Email: [email protected] Tel: 02476 523283 Contents

Forewords______1 Executive Summary______3

1. Introduction______6 2. Method of Approach______7 3. Overview of Survey Results______9 4. Future Employment by Technology______14 5. Employment by Nation______39 6. Other Characteristics of the Labour Market______40 7. Labour Market Challenges______43 8. Conclusions______45

Appendix ______46

Cover image: Siemens press picture 1

Forewords

report’s high deployment scenario and tidal sector are UK citizens, and shows the potential for a further 70,000 we want to ensure that this continues. additional direct and indirect jobs over The report alerts us to the fact that one the next decade, with nearly half of these third of employers surveyed reported in the offshore wind sector. hard-to-fill vacancies; it is crucial that as our sector grows, our people’s skills However, this research also makes clear grow with it. The industry, as detailed that there are a range of scenarios for in our newly published Skills Manifesto, growth, and that potential job numbers would like to see stronger leadership are closely tied to deployment. To from Government, capped by a national continue to develop jobs in significant Government-led skills strategy, with an numbers, we need substantial levels of emphasis on furnishing workers with deployment. Ambition and investment in the skills that industry needs. There are RenewableUK our technologies will see an increasing many creative solutions to this, from percentage of our electricity needs funding courses in areas where there It is a pleasure, once again, to present coming from wind, wave and tidal are skills shortages, to incentivising and this important research into current and sites. This will translate not only to the encouraging more students into STEM future employment in the UK from the powering of millions more homes, but subjects. This includes ensuring even wind, wave and tidal energy industries. also to the creation of tens of thousands more women enter the industry – 20% of jobs. This report clearly shows of employees in our sectors are female, This report, which updates research that if this ambition falters, we could a good comparison with the rest of the carried out in 2010, shows the role that see not only a failure to develop our energy sector, but as in many areas, wind, wave and tidal energy is playing sectors’ workforce, but also the threat we wish to be trailblazers and see as a growth engine to the UK. In the last of job losses. This is particularly true that figure grow even further. Through three years, direct jobs in our industry for offshore wind, which needs to see the Renewables Training Network have increased by 74% to just under substantial growth in deployment over established by RenewableUK and the 18,500, a fantastic leap which shows the next decade to enable it to achieve excellent apprenticeship schemes that the growing importance of this industry. its employment potential. our members run, and with the help of This year’s research also shows the providers such as Energy and Utility number of jobs which the wind, wave To achieve this new greener economy, Skills, industry is also ready and willing and tidal industries support in the Government and industry must work to do its part to ensure that our sectors broader economy: from lorry drivers to together. Government has a role to play have the workers we need. gearbox manufacturers, there are now in policy development, in ensuring that some 16,000 people who do not work a long-term vision for the wind, wave What this report demonstrates is the directly in, but owe their employment and tidal sectors is clearly set out so huge scale of opportunity. A growing to, our industries. The industry should that business has the confidence to sector today can be a booming one feel rightly proud of the 34,500 people invest in hiring and training the next tomorrow, with the potential for a who now work for or are supporting generation of workers. This means trebling of employment over the next it. It’s important we remember these both a communication of the long- decade. Challenges are in place tens of thousands of individuals who term ambition for the sector, and – namely the need for a long-term take pride in their work, building out a the right policy framework to make it policy framework to allow industry the new generation of low carbon energy happen in terms of the market support confidence to invest, and the need to projects, and who make up a highly arrangements. With changes to both grasp the skills challenge by the mettle skilled, highly trained workforce. These large- and small-scale renewables – but these can be overcome to allow us are people who deserve our support, support, it is not an exaggeration to talk to be a truly green collar nation. and the confidence that their decision to about the UK being at a crucial juncture seek a career in this market means they in terms of whether it will develop to its can plan for their future while playing an true green employment potential. Maria McCaffery important role in helping the UK shift to a Chief Executive, RenewableUK low carbon economy. There is also work to do to ensure that employers are able to procure talent The scale of the opportunity is greater local to them. I was pleased to see that still. Looking ten years ahead, this 91% of employees in the wind, wave 2

most severe in managerial and technical of skills to meet the future demands of professional disciplines, representing a the industry in a timely and effective clear demand for Science, Technology, manner. The challenge will be to ensure Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) that the UK has the skills available in skills. Exacerbating this problem will the workforce to capitalise on this job be the increasing demand from other creation and maximise the economic sectors of the UK economy for these benefit to the UK. The consequences of same skills. not achieving this could be significant in terms of increased levels of “poaching” This situation is not necessarily due to between employers, as well as employers a lack of training or qualifications, but being driven to recruit more of their skilled rather the experience and context that labour from outside of the UK. underpin the skills of the individual. Due Energy & Utility Skills to the uncertainties surrounding the Working in collaboration and partnership future development of the industry, it is with organisations like RenewableUK, I am delighted to present this second very difficult to predict the quantity and and through the continued support from round of research on the workforce and timings of demand, and to prepare the our members and the UK Commission skills needs of the UK’s wind and marine workforce accordingly. for Education and Skills, we have energy industry. developed a strong network of education Bringing in skills and experience from and skills providers across the UK to This report, which builds on the research other sectors of the UK economy (for support the wind and marine industries, carried out in 2010, reports that the example, from the armed forces), and we will continue to work with them growth in employment in the wind and up-skilling and re-skilling experienced to share best practice and further marine energy industries over the last staff, as well as recruiting through develop their capability to deliver against two years has been considerable – in non-traditional entry routes, will be industry needs. fact, direct jobs have increased by 74% essential in meeting future skills to just under 18,500. In a period of demand. In relation to this latter point, it This is clearly a rapidly changing economic uncertainty, this growth is a is encouraging to see this report present landscape that requires us all to work good news story for the sector. evidence that significant progress together to ensure that we maintain has been made in the recruitment of an understanding of the evolving While the growth over the last two women into skilled manual and technical picture and develop solutions that will years has been higher than anticipated professional roles in the industry, even deliver the right people, with the right in the 2010 report, the projections if more work needs to be done at a skills, at the right time. Taking such a looking forward show less ambition managerial level. collaborative approach is the only real than previously reported. Lack of clarity solution to ensure that the UK’s wind in Government policy and financial We must also continue to encourage and marine energy sector is able to meet uncertainties are likely to have played a new entrants into our apprenticeships its medium and long-term skills needs key role in this situation. Despite this, the and other such entry-level schemes. We from the domestic labour market. report highlights the continued potential are continuing to work with educators for growth, and we must therefore make and employers on encouraging more sure we are ready to meet the ongoing young people to undertake STEM Neil Robertson demand for labour, where and when it is subjects. I am very excited about Chief Executive, Energy & Utility Skills needed. the launch of Green STEM this year, and the National Skills Academy for which provides increased support to Power The highly skilled nature of the wind employers, educators and learners and marine energy workforce means to develop their knowledge skills and that many employers are finding it understanding of work within STEM- increasingly difficult to attract the related sectors such as the renewable required skills and experience when sector. projects start. In fact, the proportion of employers reporting hard-to-fill The insights contained within this vacancies has increased by 42% over updated report will be instrumental in the last two years. These shortages are preparing employers and the providers 3

Executive Summary

Working for a Green Britain employment. The largest increase has those demanded in other sectors of and Northern Ireland been in construction and installation, the economy; however, as a workforce, with an additional 2,367 now employed. the sector has proportionally more Use and generation of energy is highly skilled occupations than the UK changing. The British and Northern Irish Across the industry, up to 30% of economy as a whole. This highlights the markets are both seeing rapid growth of people work in construction and need for a coherent strategy to promote renewable energy as older generating installation, 25% in planning and the supply of highly skilled workers, but capacity is replaced in the progression development, 18% in support services, also illustrates the competition that the to low-carbon electricity generation. 16% in operations and maintenance wind and marine energy sector faces in and 10% in manufacturing. This reflects order to attract future talent. A significant part of this growth is wind an industry that is actively building out and marine renewable energy. Onshore new projects, supplying equipment and The level of growth also means that and offshore wind now provides half of maintaining existing plant. Significantly, the sector is experiencing the problem the UK’s renewable electricity provision. the number of indirect jobs has also of hard-to-fill vacancies, with a third of As we near 2020 these two technologies increased. Some 15,908 indirect jobs are firms now reporting they had ongoing are expected to play a major part in now supported by the wind and marine vacancies, up from a quarter of firms meeting UK 2020 renewable energy industry, up from 10,555 in 2010. This in 2010. This is an economy-wide targets. Beyond 2020 both onshore and means that more employees working in issue, but demonstrates how there is offshore wind, alongside an increasing companies who might not be principally competition within the UK economy for presence of wave and tidal stream identified as renewable energy a highly skilled workforce. 20% of the power, are expected to remain important companies are now supporting the sector’s workforce are women – this is in the UK’s efforts to build out new industry as a result of a greater degree lower than the proportion of women in sources of generation as it decarbonises of interdependency and specialisation in technical and professional occupations electricity generation while reducing parts of our economy. in the UK, but proportionally higher price volatility and dependence on than in the power sector overall, imported fuel sources. A UK-wide highly skilled thereby demonstrating the sector’s employment base success in attracting women to the Alongside the important role wind and workforce. However, women are still marine energy can play in keeping the Since 2010, direct employment in the under-represented in management lights on and tackling climate change, sector has increased by 7,886, and 5,353 occupations, indicating that more needs this research looks at how these more jobs are indirectly supporting the to be done to attract women into this sectors are making a contribution to sector through the wider supply chain. sector and to provide opportunities our economy as important sources The 34,373 full-time equivalent jobs across different roles. of employment. The value of wind supported directly and indirectly by wind and marine comes not just from the and marine energy are an important Looking at how our people are electricity generated, but also through reminder of the growing size of the employed, since 2010 the sector has the jobs they create in communities sector, and its influence throughout seen a significant shift away from across Great Britain and Northern the UK economy. 10% of the direct contract jobs towards permanent Ireland. Employment in the sector is workforce is mobile, a flexible, responsive employment, which signals confidence growing, and under healthy market workforce moving around the UK to meet in the growth of the industry. This trend predictions it looks set to continue demand. The remainder is rooted more will continue across all scenarios in the to grow, providing a diverse range firmly in one place. 60% of employment future. The size and type of employer of employment in manufacturing, in wind and marine energy is based is also diverse: more than 80% of all construction, development maintenance in England, 20% in Scotland, and the employers in wind and marine employ and wider support industries. remainder in Wales and Northern Ireland. fewer than 250 people; 56% employ And of this UK-based workforce, the fewer than 25 people. The fact that Since 2010 the number of people vast majority – 91% – are UK citizens, SMEs are at the heart of the sector, and directly employed in the industry a fact which demonstrates the ability of are driving the growth in employment, has increased by 74% from 10,579 the industry to recruit, attract and retain shows the depth and diversity of the to 18,465, evidencing the sector’s employment on a domestic level. industry. As a consequence, skills importance given the slowdown in and enterprise support needs to be the wider economy. This increase The skillsets required in the wind and structured in a way that can be easily can be seen across different types of marine energy sector are similar to accessed by these companies. CHARTS - SKILLS

Figure 5.1: Distribution of Employers by Technology Sector (%) Figure 5.2: Distribution of Employers by Activity (%) Figure 5.3: Occupational Structure of Employment 5.4

None of these

Marine Support Services Other employees incl. administrative Outsource work support staff Offshore wind Increase workload for other staff 2010 Specialised transport Semi-skilled or operative job Small onshore wind 2013 Maintenance Have difﬁculties introducing new working …

Installation Skilled manual or technical jobs Increase operating costs Medium onshore wind 2010 All sectors Construction 2013 Renewables Have difﬁculties meeting quality standards Large scale onshore wind Technical professional jobs Manufacture and manufacturing design Delay developing new products or services Any onshore wind Management Site planning and development Lose business or orders to competitors 0102030405060708090 0102030405060 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0% 20%40% 60%80% 100% % of employers % of employers % of employment % of employers

5.5 5.5 --- VERSION 2!!!!!

Semi-skilled or operative job Semi -skilled or operative job Whole economy

Renewables Skilled manual or technical jobs Skilled manual or technical jobs 4 Whole economy Technical professional jobs Technical professional jobs Renewables

Management Management

01020304050 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40

% of female employment % of female employment

CHARTS - PROJECTIONS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT The sector by technology & WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 DIDirectRECT EMPL EmploymentOYMENT ACROSS Across Wind And Marine Energy, 2013 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS ACROSS WIND AND MARINE turnover WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 ENERGY, 2013

The overarching growth in wind and marine is evidenced from looking at charts 2013 each of the technologies individually. In 36% Onshore: large 25% Site Planning or development 15% Construction & Installation onshore wind there are now 9,911 direct 27% Construction & Installation 11% Manufacture or manufacturing design FTE jobs, an increase of 3,311, or 50%, 5% Onshore: medium 16% Operation and maintenance 9% Operation and maintenance 27% Construction & Installation 30% Other direct since 2010. Notably, employment in the 13% Onshore: small 57% Other direct 16% Operation and maintenance 46% Indirect small-scale wind sector has increased 37% Offshore 18% Support services and other activities by a factor of four from 590 to 2,464 9% Marine 1% Decommissioning FTEs. The workforce in the offshore 2% Specialised Transport sector has doubled in size since 2010, from 3,151 to 6,830. And this growth is mirrored in marine, where the number of Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 34,373 FTE direct FTE jobs now stands at 1,724, up Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 from the 800 jobs recorded in 2010.

Turnover of our sector has increased DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM from an estimated £2.8bn in 2010 to scenariosDIRECT EMPL areOYMEN achievableT ACROSS – however, Our more conservative mid-range DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 £8.1bn in 2013, a near trebling in the lowerWIND AND growth MARINE scenariosENERGY, 2013 are also possible. scenario is that by 2023, 52,540 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 size of the sector. This comes against With lower deployment levels come people could be employed directly and a tough economic background and smaller opportunities for growth. Low indirectly. This represents a reduction in highlights an increasingly important levels of growth in onshore, offshore and forecast employment from the equivalent role that the sector has played in wave and tidal would mean employment 10-year period in our 2011 report due 12000 62% England Marine 28% Site Planning or development 29% Site Planning or development underpinning economic growth in the industry would fail to double in size to the lower levels of deployment now 10000 Offshore throughout the UK. At the same time, in the next ten years. In many traditional assumed. The scenario4% Wa lereflectss an 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design 12% Manufacture or manufacturing design Onshore: small labour productivity has increased. There sectors or individual companies, to industry that is maturing21% Scot andland learning 8000 20% Construction & Installation 24% Construction & Installation Onshore: medium has been a more than 50% increase in double in size over ten years would be how to deliver in 4%a moreN.Irel cost-effectiveand 16% Operation and maintenance 15% Operation and maintenance 6000 Onshore: large nominal labour productivity since the recognised as a significant achievement. and productive manner.9% Mob However,ile it 24% Support services and other activities 17% Support services and other activities Survey Results 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning last survey, showing that industry is However, for a sector which has grown would also reflect a slowdown in the 4000 from mid-2013 managing its costs well and learning by over 74% in three years, this would sector because of policy uncertainty 1% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport how to deliver more cost-effectively represent a marked scaling back of and resulting caution in the industry as 2000 as it grows. While increased labour ambition, and in some parts of the to levels of investment and recruitment. Total employment: 18,645 FTE 0 Total employment: 6,609 FTE Total employment: 838 FTE productivity may lessen potential industry could actually result a fall in The fact thatSurvey under Results this fromscenario mid-2013 more England WalesScotlandN.Ireland Mobile Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 employment growth, the sector is still numbers employed. than 50,000 people would be employed likely to see strong growth in a highly The critical issue is momentum. Our in wind and marine technologies skilled and productive workforce. report shows the industry is currently and their supply chain means that DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE goingSCALE ONthroughSHORE ACT a periodIVITIES, 2013 of policy these industries would still represent ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013 Future industry growth uncertainty, and the scenarios considered a significant opportunity for the UK take into account the implications of the economy. A certain level of deployment Projecting out ten years to 2023, our lower levels of deployment possible under and continued momentum is needed to model predicts continued growth in Electricity Market Reform and fundable get there, however, and industry needs employment, but this is dependent on through the Government’s levy control to maintain installation progress to 2020 29% a healthy market. Companies working framework. Rising employment between to have the capacitySite Planni ngto orcontinue development building 19% Site Planning or development 27% Site Planning or development 13% within the wind and marine sectors are 2010 and 2013, which was broadly in and growing outManuf toac 2023ture or manufactand touring the design end 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design 19% Manufacture or manufacturing design investing in premises and people across line with our 2011 medium scenario of the decade.24% Co Ournstruc reporttion & Inst showsallation that 36% Construction & Installation 20% Construction & Installation the UK. The scenarios in Working for predictions, highlights an industry below a 15certain% Op eratdeploymention and maintenanc rate,e growth 18% Operation and maintenance 16% Operation and maintenance a Green Britain and Northern Ireland which has invested in anticipation of the slows or16% evenSu stops.pport se Thervices consequenceand other activities 14% Support services and other activities 16% Support services and other activities demonstrate high growth potential in this growing market. The scenarios show of this is 1%that theDeco UKmmi ssiwouldoning secure a 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning sector – over 70,000 additional direct that to maintain substantial growth in lower proportion2% Spec ofiali sethed Tr anseconomicport benefit 2% Specialised Transport 1% Specialised Transport and indirect jobs could be created by employment there needs to be a clear per MW developed. 2023 in the high scenarios. The high trajectory of increased deployment. Total employment: 2,464 FTE Total employment: 6,830 FTE Total employment: 1,724 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED

Figure 5.1: Distribution of Employers by Technology Sector (%) Figure 5.2: Distribution of Employers by Activity (%) Figure 5.3: Occupational Structure of Employment 5.4

None of these

5.5 5.5 --- VERSION 2!!!!!

Semi-skilled or operative job Semi -skilled or operative job Whole economy

Renewables Skilled manual or technical jobs Skilled manual or technical jobs

Whole economy Technical professional jobs Technical professional jobs Renewables

Management Management

01020304050 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40

% of female employment % of female employment

CHARTS - PROJECTIONS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS ACROSS WIND AND MARINE WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 ENERGY, 2013 charts 2013

9% Marine 1% Decommissioning

2% Specialised Transport

Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 34,373 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013

12000

62% England Marine 28% Site Planning or development 29% Site Planning or development 10000 4% Wales Offshore 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design 12% Manufacture or manufacturing design Onshore: small 21% Scotland 8000 20% Construction & Installation 24% Construction & Installation Onshore: medium 4% N.Ireland 16% Operation and maintenance 15% Operation and maintenance 6000 Onshore: large 9% Mobile 24% Support services and other activities 17% Support services and other activities

Survey Results 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 4000 from mid-2013 1% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 2000

Total employment: 18,645 FTE 0 Total employment: 6,609 FTE Total employment: 838 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 England WalesScotlandN.Ireland Mobile Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013

29% Site Planning or development 19% Site Planning or development 27% Site Planning or development

13% Manufacture or manufacturing design 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design 19% Manufacture or manufacturing design

24% Construction & Installation 36% Construction & Installation 20% Construction & Installation

15% Operation and maintenance 18% Operation and maintenance 16% Operation and maintenance

16% Support services and other activities 14% Support services and other activities 16% Support services and other activities

1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning

2% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 1% Specialised Transport

Total employment: 2,464 FTE Total employment: 6,830 FTE Total employment: 1,724 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023

5 EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED

While the sector has delivered strong Employment Across Wind And Marine Energy, 2013 And 2023 growth in these difficult years, policy 60000 60000 support is critical to ensure that this continues apace in the coming Wave 120000 50000 50000 Contracted decade. Our report demonstrates the Offshore importance of a healthy and consistent 100000 Indirect Permanent charts-summaryprojections 40000 Small Onshore 40000 build programme. The high scenarios Direct 80000 Medium Onshore demonstrate what can be achieved 30000 30000 with strong levels of deployment and Large Onshore 60000 policy certainty. Here exists a virtuous 20000 circle in which continued growth leads 20000 40000 to continued confidence, high growth 10000 in employment and cost reduction, 10000 20000 which makes future growth more likely. 0 0 However, between the mid- and low- 0 2013 LowMediumHigh range scenarios a vicious cycle exists, 2013 LowMediumHigh (Survey) 2023 2013 LowMediumHigh in which low levels of deployment (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 mean industry fails to get past a certain tipping point; this level of investment is insufficient to trigger the skills development and training of a workforce for the industry. This report shows a burgeoning industry with substantial levels of growth in employment, and even greater potential over the next decade provided the conditions are right. 6

1. Introduction

Working for a Green Britain, published in 2011,1 provided the first detailed assessment of the UK wind and marine energy sector and its prospects. Since that first study there have been major developments in the sector, with installed capacity nearly doubling since 2010.

However, in the wake of a global onshore wind sectors are now recession and a shift in policy sentiment, identified separately, whereas before the industry faces greater challenges they were not distinguished than were envisaged back in 2011. This • The analysis of the installation life is reflected in a more cautious outlook cycle has been extended to include on renewables deployment in the decommissioning/repowering at end coming decade in this report compared of life. to the previous one. The report is structured as follows. This report provides an up-to-date Chapter 2 provides an overview of assessment of employment in the wind the study approach and Chapter 3 and marine energy sector, its current summarises the key findings from challenges and its future prospects. the survey. Chapter 4 then reviews in It follows a similar approach to the detail the current structure and future original Working for a Green Britain prospects of the sector, by individual study, combining a detailed survey of technology. Chapter 5 presents the companies with projections modelling breakdown of current employment by to examine the employment potential of nation, while Chapters 6 and 7 provide alternative renewables futures. Where information on the current structure possible, comparison is made with the of the labour market, and current and results of the earlier study. future challenges, respectively. The report concludes in Chapter 8. This study goes beyond the previous analysis with the following three Further details on the study approach extensions: can be found in the Appendix at the end of this report. • Current employment in the sector is reported in more detail – at the level of countries, as well as for the UK as a whole – by gender – by UK citizenship; • The large- and medium-scale

1. Volume 1: www.renewableuk.com/en/publications/reports.cfm/Working-for-a-Green-Britain-Volume-1 Volume 2: www.renewableuk.com/en/publications/reports.cfm/Working-for-a-Green-Britain-Volume-2 7

2. Method of Approach

2.1 Overview measure the ‘effective’ number of full- What activities are identified? time employees. The implication is that The approach taken in this study builds one FTE may represent more than one This study identifies the following on that applied in the previous 2011 actual employee. activities within the UK wind and marine study, comprising: energy sector, covering the entire asset Direct employment covers employees lifecycle of these sites: • A survey, in mid-2013, of who spend the majority of their working companies in the wind and marine day on activities specific to wind or • Site planning and development; energy sector, to identify current marine energy. • Manufacturing and design; employment in the sector (and • Construction and installation; to compare it to the employment Indirect employment covers employees • Operations and maintenance; measured last time), as well as to whose principal activity is not wind or • Specialist transport; identify wider labour-market issues marine energy-specific, but who work in • Decommissioning/recommissioning; such as the demand and supply of sectors that supply goods and services • Specialist Support Services and critical skills and competences; to the wind and marine energy sector. In Other. • A modelling exercise to project that sense, their employment is indirectly future employment potential, out supported by the UK wind and marine Of the above, Decommissioning/ to 2023, based on three alternative energy sector.2 An example might be a recommissioning is a new category projections about future deployment supplier of gearbox components which added since the previous study that of wind and marine energy in the UK has 100 employees and sells a fifth of its recognises that some installed capacity and the rest of the world. output to the wind and marine sector; the in the UK has reached the end of its life remainder is sold elsewhere in the UK or and has either been decommissioned Further detail on each can be found in abroad. In this example, the company or repowered. Specialist transport was the Appendix at the end of this report. has 20 jobs which are indirectly related to previously included as part of Specialist Note that the survey for the 2011 wind and marine energy. Support Services and Other. study was carried out in late 2010. Consequently, comparisons to the The technologies covered Contracted and permanent employment previous survey are comparisons to This study distinguishes between: employment in 2010, while references to The ‘wind and marine energy sector’ in the accompanying report are to 2011. this study refers to five technology types: • Contracted employment, which concerns temporary employment 2.2 Key definitions 1. Large-scale onshore wind, in activities sustained by consisting of wind turbines over the construction of new (or Employment 500kW in size; decommissioning/repowering of old) 2. Medium-scale onshore wind, wind and marine sites; The study considers direct (wind and consisting of wind turbines between • Permanent employment, which marine energy-related) employment as 100kW and 500kW in size; is employment sustained by the well as indirect employment (jobs in the 3. Small-scale wind systems, for wind requirement to operate and maintain rest of the UK economy), on a Full-Time turbines less than 100kW in size; current installed capacity, i.e. these Equivalent (FTE) basis. 4. Offshore wind, covering wind jobs exist for the entire operational turbines deployed in a marine life of the assets. Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) employment environment; is a measure of the number of 5. Marine energy, for wave and tidal In this context, permanent employment employees in a firm or sector. stream energy technologies. is long-term in nature, whereas Employees who regularly work more contracted employment depends on than 30 hours per week are counted as Of the above, medium-scale onshore (continued) construction of new projects. one FTE, while those that work part- wind is now separately identified time (less than 30 hours per week) are (whereas in the previous study it was counted as half a FTE. This is in order to included in large-scale onshore wind).

2. The model applied for this study also considers induced employment, which arises from workers spending (part of) their additional income, further increasing economic activity. It is usually more relevant for analysis at the local level, rather than at the level of nations or the entire UK (in part because it includes an element of double-counting). As such, the results reported are for direct and indirect employment only, excluding induced employment. 8

2.3 The scenarios The scenarios considered in this 2013 study are less ambitious than those There are three sets of projections used in the 2011 study. This reflects considered and presented in this report. recent and expected future periods of greater policy uncertainty, and takes • High deployment: this scenario into account the implications of the posits strong and consistent support proposed levy-control framework in the specifically for wind, wave and tidal case of the higher-growth scenarios. in order to meet renewable targets in The lower-deployment scenarios in this 2020, as well as to enhance energy study represent policy failure, rather than security and capture cost and simply lower rates of growth (as was the wider economic benefits thereafter, case in the 2011 study). including, as far as possible, to maximise employment in the sector In addition to the assumptions around in the UK. deployment, the scenarios also embody • Medium deployment: in this alternative views on: scenario, support for wind, wave and tidal exists but is weaker • The extent to which the UK will and inconsistent. A wider set of be able to supply manufactured renewable technologies is relied on components to support wind and to meet 2020 targets, resulting in marine energy in overseas markets; lower delivery of the technologies • The extent to which the UK will under consideration here, and be able to meet its supply-chain growth thereafter is strongly requirements with UK production dependent on cost reduction. The (rather than imports). lack of clear support for the sector results in the UK capturing a lower In each case, higher export opportunities proportion of the industrial benefits, and larger increases in domestic particularly from offshore wind, supply correspond to higher levels of which is reflected in the fact that this UK deployment, while lower exports scenario is revised down from the and little-to-no increase in indigenous previous report. production correspond to lower levels • Low deployment: this scenario of UK deployment. The high scenario assumes that support is is thus optimistic from both a UK and substantially withdrawn from wind, global deployment point of view, and wave and tidal, resulting in low or the low scenario is similarly pessimistic zero growth. Only the cheapest across the board. ‘low-hanging fruit’ projects are developed, which are limited due to higher planning hurdles being imposed (particularly on onshore wind), and dependent on cost reductions that have come forward due to deployment in other countries. In the extreme, this scenario results in no deployment of the marine technologies after 2018 as they are not deemed to be worth the long-term investment required. CHARTS - SKILLS

Figure 5.1: Distribution of Employers by Technology Sector (%) Figure 5.2: Distribution of Employers by Activity (%) Figure 5.3: Occupational Structure of Employment 5.4

None of these

5.5 5.5 --- VERSION 2!!!!!

Semi-skilled or operative job Semi -skilled or operative job Whole economy

Renewables Skilled manual or technical jobs Skilled manual or technical jobs 9 Whole economy Technical professional jobs Technical professional jobs Renewables

Management Management

3. Overview of Survey Results 01020304050 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40

% of female employment % of female employment

CHARTS - PROJECTIONS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT 3.1 Current employment WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 DI3.1:RECT Direct EMPLOYMEN EmploymentT ACROSS Across Wind And Marine Energy by Technology, 2013 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS ACROSS WIND AND MARINE WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 ENERGY, 2013 Direct employment

The sector is larger and more broad- charts 2013 based than in 2010 36% Onshore: large 25% Site Planning or development 27% Construction & Installation 15% Construction & Installation 11% Manufacture or manufacturing design 16% Operation and maintenance 9% Operation and maintenance Based on the results derived from the 5% Onshore: medium 27% Construction & Installation 30% Other direct survey, the wind and marine energy 13% Onshore: small 57% Other direct 16% Operation and maintenance 46% Indirect 37% Offshore sector in 2013 directly employed 18% Support services and other activities 18,465 FTE across the sector and had 9% Marine 1% Decommissioning a turnover of £8.1bn (predominantly in 2% Specialised Transport the more developed large onshore and offshore technologies). The 2010 survey reported employment of 10,579 FTE, Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 34,373 FTE meaning that employment in the sector Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 has increased by 7,700 jobs (74%) over 2010–13. Turnover in the sector in 2010 was estimated to be around £2.8bn DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS (indicating a near-trebling in the size construction and installation, which DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 of the sector in the last three years, by accounts for 25–30% of the workforce. A The latest survey indicates that the vast turnover). The new survey results imply further 25% of the workforce is engaged majority (91%) of employees in UK wind a greater than 50% increase in labour in site planning and development. and marine energy are UK citizens. In productivity (as measured by turnover Operation and maintenance and support all technologies the proportion exceeds 12000 per worker). and other activities each account for 90%, with small onshore wind reporting 62% England Marine 28% Site Planning or development 29% Site Planning or development 15–20% of jobs in the sector, while a proportion closer to 95%. 10000 4% Wales Offshore 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design 12% Manufacture or manufacturing design Of those 18,465 direct jobs, just over a further 10% are in manufacturing Onshore: small 21% Scotland 8000 20% Construction & Installation 24% Construction & Installation a third each are associated with the and manufacturing design. There are The majority of the jobs directly Onshore: medium 4% N.Ireland 16% Operation and maintenance 15% Operation and maintenance offshore and large onshore technologies. relatively few jobs associated with associated with the wind and marine Onshore: large 6000 24% 17% The next largest technology in terms decommissioning (as the number of energy sector are 9%in EnglandMobile (more than Support services and other activities Support services and other activities Survey Results 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 4000 of direct employment is small onshore, sites that have been decommissioned 60%). The sector in Scotland accounts from mid-2013 which employs around 13% of the total or repowered is much smaller than for about 20% of the overall jobs (3,827 1% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport wind and marine energy workforce. the amount of new build) or specialist FTE), with the remainder in Wales, 2000

Some 10% of the workforce is employed transport activities. Northern IrelandTotal employment: or considered 18,645 ‘mobile’ FTE 0 Total employment: 6,609 FTE Total employment: 838 FTE in the marine sector and 5% in the (not allocatedSurvey to a Results specific from nation).mid-2013 England WalesScotlandN.Ireland Mobile Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 burgeoning medium-scale onshore Compared to 2010, employment in all Mobile employment accounts for some sector. activities has increased, with the largest 10% of employment in the sector, with increase in overall jobs in construction the majority operating in offshore wind. DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 Employment in each technology type and installation (an increase of 2,367) These mobile workers are UK-based ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013 has increased since 2010, with the as a result of increases in the amount and involved in activities across Great largest increases seen in offshore and of newly built capacity. The number of Britain and Northern Ireland, travelling small- and medium-scale onshore jobs in manufacturing and manufacturing to sites to carry out activities wherever technologies. As a result the profile of design and maintenance and operations the need arises. Although the total employment by technology is more activities has also increased, by a total number of direct jobs in the sector is 29% Site Planning or development 19% Site Planning or development 27% Site Planning or development evenly distributed than it was in 2010, of 2,224, since 2010. The increases in lower in Scotland than in England, the 13% Manufacture or manufacturing design 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design 19% Manufacture or manufacturing design when more than half of all employment the former reflect continued growth in sector accounts for a higher proportion 24% Construction & Installation 36% Construction & Installation 20% Construction & Installation was in the large onshore wind sector. new build, while the latter reflects the of total employment in Scotland than 15% Operation and maintenance 18% Operation and maintenance 16% Operation and maintenance The largest single activity within the consequent increases in operational it does in England. As a proportion of 16% Support services and other activities 14% Support services and other activities 16% Support services and other activities sector in terms of employment is capacity in the system. total employment, the wind and marine 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning

2% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 1% Specialised Transport

Total employment: 2,464 FTE Total employment: 6,830 FTE Total employment: 1,724 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED

60000 60000 Wave 120000 50000 50000 Contracted Offshore 100000 Indirect Permanent charts-summaryprojections 40000 Small Onshore 40000 Direct 80000 Medium Onshore 30000 30000 Large Onshore 60000 20000 20000 40000 10000 10000 20000 0 0 0 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013 LowMediumHigh (Survey) 2023 2013 LowMediumHigh (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 CHARTS - SKILLS CHARTS - SKILLS Figure 5.1: Distribution of Employers by Technology Sector (%) Figure 5.2: Distribution of Employers by Activity (%) Figure 5.3: Occupational Structure of Employment 5.4 Figure 5.1: Distribution of Employers by Technology Sector (%) Figure 5.2: Distribution of Employers by Activity (%) Figure 5.3: Occupational Structure of Employment 5.4

None of these None of these Marine Support Services Other employees incl. administrative Outsource work Marine support staff Support Services Other employees incl. administrative Outsource work Offshore wind Increase workload for other staff 2010 Specialised transport support staff Offshore wind Semi-skSpilledec oriali opsederat tranivesp joorbt Increase workload for other staff 2013 2010 Have difficulties introducing new working Small onshore wind Maintenance Semi-skilled or operative job … Small onshore wind 2013 Maintenance Have difficulties introducing new working … Installation Skilled manual or technical jobs Increase operating costs Medium onshore wind 2010 All sectors Installation Skilled manual or technical jobs Increase operating costs Medium onshore wind Construction 2013 Renewa2010bles Have difficulties meeting quality standards All sectors Large scale onshore wind Technical professional jobs Construction 2013 Renewables Have difficulties meeting quality standards ManuLarfagect uresca andle on mshanuforeac witundring design Delay deTevechnilopicangl pr neofwes prsioduonalcts jobs or services Any onshore wind Manufacture and manufactuMrianagng deemsiengnt Delay developing new products or services Site planning and development Lose business or orders to competitors Any onshore wind Management 0102030405060708090 Site planning and development Lose business or orders to competitors 0102030405060 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0102030405060708090 0% 20%40% 60%80% 100% 0102030405060 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 % of employers % of employers % of employment 0% 20%40% 60%80% 100% % of employers % of employers % of employers % of employment % of employers

5.5 5.5 --- VERSION 2!!!!! 5.5 5.5 --- VERSION 2!!!!!

Semi-skilled or operative job Semi -skilled or operative job Whole economy Semi-skilled or operative job Semi -skilled or operative job Renewables Whole economy Skilled manual or technical jobs Skilled manual or technical jobs Renewables Skilled manual or technical jobs Skilled manual or technical jobs Whole economy Technical professional jobs Technical professional jobs Renewables Whole economy Technical professional jobs Technical professional jobs Renewables

Management Management Management Management 01020304050 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40 01020304050 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40 % of female employment % of female employment % of female employment 10 % of female employment

CHARTS - PROJECTIONS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT CHARTS - PROJECTIONS WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS energy sectors in Wales and Northern DIRE3.2:CT EMPL DirectOYME NTEmployment ACROSS Across Wind And Marine Energy by Activity, 2013 DIREACRCT EOSMPLS WIONDYMEN ANDT M ACROARINESS DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 WIND AND MAENRIERNEGY ,EN 2013ERGY, 2013 Ireland account for a slightly larger share DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS ACROSS WIND AND MARINE WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 ENERGY, 2013 than in England, but not as high as in Scotland. charts 2013 charts 2013

Across36% theOn fourshor e:nations, large most 25% Site Planning or development 27% Construction & Installation 15% Construction & Installation employment is in onshore wind 11% 36%ManufacOntushreor ore: manufactlarge uring design 25% Site Planning or development 27% Construction & Installation 15% Construction & Installation 5% Onshore: medium 16% Operation and maintenance 9% Operation and maintenance 11% Manufacture or manufacturing design (comprising large, medium and small- 27% 5%ConstrucOntishonor &e: In mestadillaumtion 30%16% OtherOp eratdireioctn and maintenance 9% Operation and maintenance 13% Onshore: small 57% Other direct 27% scale turbines). Between one-third and 16% Operation and maintenance Construction & Installation 46% Indirect 30% Other direct 13% Onshore: small 57% Other direct 37% Offshore one-half of employment is accounted 18% Support services and other activities 16% Operation and maintenance 46% Indirect 37% Offshore for by 9%largeMa onshorerine wind, and 10–20% 1% Decommissioning 18% Support services and other activities

by small onshore, depending on the 2% 9%SpeciaMaliseridne Transport 1% Decommissioning nation. Offshore wind accounts for 2% Specialised Transport the next-largest proportion across the nations,Total though,employment: in the 18,645 case FT Eof mobile Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 34,373 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 employment,Survey Results there from are mi mored-2013 workers in SurveyTotal Results employment: from mi d-18,6452013 FTE Total employment: 18,645 FTE SurveyTotal employment: Results from 18,645 mid-2013 FTE Total employment: 34,373 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 offshore, rather than onshore, wind. Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013

The vast majority of employment relating DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 to small onshore wind systems is AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM DI3.3:RECT Direct EMPLOYMEN EmploymentT ACROSS Across Wind And Marine Energy by Nation, 2013 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 located in England (almost 1,436 jobs, WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 or 60% of the total employment in that technology), followed by Scotland (645

jobs, or just over 25% of the total). The 12000

remaining62% 15%En glofand employment in this Marine 12000 28% Site Planning or development 29% Site Planning or development 10000 62% England Marine 29% sector is split4% moreWales or less evenly across Offshore 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design 2812%% SiMate Plnuannifactngure or or development manufacturing design Site Planning or development 10000 Wales, Northern Ireland and the mobile 4% WaOnlesshore: small Offshore 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design 12% Manufacture or manufacturing design 21% Scotland 8000 20% Construction & Installation 24% Construction & Installation workforce (equating to between 100 and Onshore: medium Onshore: small 24% 4% N.Ireland 21% Scotland 8000 16% Operation and maintenance 2015%% CoOpnserattruciotionn an &d In mastainllatetinancon e Construction & Installation Onshore: medium 150 jobs in each case). 6000 Onshore: large 15% 9% Mobile 4% N.Ireland 24% Support services and other activities 1617%% OpSueratpporiont ansedrv icmaesin antenancd othere activities Operation and maintenance Onshore: large 6000 24% 17% Support services and other activities 9% MSurveyobile Results 1% Decommissioning 1% SuDeppocortmmi servssicioesni ngand other activities 4000 The majority of employment in marine from mid-2013 Survey Results 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 4000 1% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport technologies is located in England from mid-2013 2000 1% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport and Scotland. Marine employment 2000 constitutesTotal employment: the highest 18,645 proportion FTE 0 Total employment: 6,609 FTE Total employment: 838 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 of directSurvey windResults and from marine mid-2013 energy England WalesScotlandN.Ireland MobileTotal employment: 18,645 FTE 0 Total employment: 6,609 FTE Total employment: 838 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 England WalesScotlandN.Ireland Mobile Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 employment in Scotland, reflecting the area’s larger number of test facilities and operational devices. DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013 servicesDIRECT EMPL (e.g.OYME auditingNT IN SMALL of accounts). and marine energy sector supports more DIRECT EMPLACTIOYVIMETIESNT, 2013 IN OFFSHORE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 Indirect employment Such activities are ‘indirectly’ related jobs in the economy now than it would ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013 to wind and marine energy because have back in 2010. This is a feature of The 18,465 FTE jobs directly identified they represent employment that arises more recent official data on the structure with the wind and marine energy sector elsewhere in the UK economy as a of the UK economy, which indicate

in29 %turnSi supportte Planning employmentor development elsewhere result of activity within the wind and a greater19% degreeSite Pl anniof nginterdependency or development 27% Site Planning or development 29% in13 %the Meconomy,anufacture or furthermanufacturing up designthe supply marine sector. It is estimated that some and/or 10specialisation% MSianufte Placannitureng orin or manufact UKdevelopment economicuring design 19%19% SiMatenuf Planniactungre or developmentmanufacturing design 27% Site Planning or development 13% 10% chain.24% CoAsns trdefineduction & Inst inalla thistion study, the firms 15,908 indirect FTE jobs are supported sectors36% with ColinksManufnstrucac totituon rewind &or In manufactsta andllation uringmarine design 20% MCoanufnstracuctutireon or & manufactInstallationuring design 19% Manufacture or manufacturing design 243 % that15% areOp eratfurtherion and up ma inthetenanc supplye chain are in this way. Of these, 3,649 are in energy.18 %For Opexample,Coeratnstrioucn tiandon &maindirect Ininsttalenanclation efirms may 36%16% CoOpnserattruciotinon an d& maInstaintellananction e 20% Construction & Installation 15% not16% classifiedSupport serv icases anwindd ot herand act ivitiemarines energy manufacturing and 5,849 in business now outsource14% SuOpppor eratmoretio sen rvan icfunctionsdes ma anindtenanc other etoactivitie others 1816%% OpSueratpporiotn se andrvic maes inantenancd othere activities 16% Operation and maintenance 16% sector1% De firms;commissi theyoning are not engaged in service support activities. In total, UK firms, 1%whereasDeSucoppor mmispreviouslyt sesirvonicinesg an dthey other actmightivities 14%1% SuDepporcommist servsiiconesin gand other activities 16% Support services and other activities

‘direct’2% Sp activities.ecialised Trans Instead,port these firms wind and marine energy supports 34,373 have opted2%1% toSpDe eccarrycoiammilised ssiout Tronansin thoseporg t activities 1%1% DeSpcoecmmisialisedsi onTraningsport 1% Decommissioning supply more generic goods and services direct and indirect jobs. themselves.2% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 1% Specialised Transport as would be required by a range of UK businesses,Total employment: including 2,464 FTE manufactured The ratio of indirect jobs to direct 3.2 FutureTotal employment: prospects 6,830 FTE Total employment: 1,724 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 components (e.g. computers, as well jobs in this 2013 study is higher than Total employment: 2,464 FTE Total employment: 6,830 FTE Total employment: 1,724 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 as various engineering equipment that reported in the 2011 study. The The outlook for employment in the DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 and structural components) and implication is that one job in the wind wind and marine energy sector is DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND DIREANDCT EMPLMARINEOYMEN ENERT ACROGY, 2013SS WIANDND 2023 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND REVISED DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED 3. Compared to the previous study, the ratios of indirect to direct jobs in other UK economic sectors vary, with some exhibiting higher ratios compared to last time, and others having lower ratios.

60000 60000 Wave 60000 60000 120000 50000 50000 Contracted Offshore Wave 120000 50000 50000 Contracted 100000 Indirect Permanent Offshore charts-summaryprojections 40000 Small Onshore 40000 Direct 100000 Indirect Permanent charts-summaryprojections 40000 Small Onshore 80000 Medium Onshore 40000 30000 Direct 30000 80000 Medium Onshore Large Onshore 30000 60000 30000 20000 Large Onshore 60000 20000 20000 40000 20000 10000 40000 10000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 0 0 2013 LowMediumHigh 0 LowMediumHigh (Survey) 2023 0 2013 0 20132013 LowMediuiumHigigh h (Survey) 2023 2013 LowMediumHigh (S(Sururvevey)y) 2023 2013 LowMediumHigh (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 CHARTS - SKILLS

Figure 5.1: Distribution of Employers by Technology Sector (%) Figure 5.2: Distribution of Employers by Activity (%) Figure 5.3: Occupational Structure of Employment 5.4

None of these

5.5 5.5 --- VERSION 2!!!!!

Semi-skilled or operative job Semi -skilled or operative job Whole economy

Renewables Skilled manual or technical jobs Skilled manual or technical jobs

Whole economy Technical professional jobs Technical professional jobs Renewables

Management Management

01020304050 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40

% of female employment % of female employment

9% Marine 1% Decommissioning

2% Specialised Transport

12000

Survey Results 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 4000 from mid-2013 1% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 2000

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013

29% Site Planning or development 19% Site Planning or development 27% Site Planning or development

13% Manufacture or manufacturing design 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design 19% Manufacture or manufacturing design

24% Construction & Installation 36% Construction & Installation 20% Construction & Installation

15% Operation and maintenance 18% Operation and maintenance 16% Operation and maintenance

16% Support services and other activities 14% Support services and other activities 16% Support services and other activities

1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning

2% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 1% Specialised Transport

Total employment: 2,464 FTE Total employment: 6,830 FTE Total employment: 1,724 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023

11 EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED

3.4: Direct and Indirect Employment Across Wind and Marine Energy, 2013 and 2023 in construction activity). Marine and small onshore are the technologies 60000 60000 where there is the greatest divergence Wave in employment growth between the 120000 50000 50000 Contracted scenarios. Offshore 100000 Indirect Permanent charts-summaryprojections 40000 Small Onshore 40000 Direct While direct employment in a technology 80000 Medium Onshore could fall back from current levels in the 30000 30000 more pessimistic scenarios (e.g. large Large Onshore 60000 onshore in the low growth scenario), the 20000 20000 falls are seen in activities associated 40000 with the early phases of a facility’s life, 10000 10000 20000 such as planning and development; employment in the more sustained 0 0 0 activities such as operations and 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013 LowMediumHigh maintenance are generally higher than (Survey) 2023 2013 LowMediumHigh (Survey) 2023 current levels. This reflects the transition (Survey) 2023 from an industry where employment is sustained by construction activity considered under three alternative due to higher planning hurdles to one where most of the activity is scenarios, providing a range of potential being imposed (particularly on in operations to supply renewable employment outcomes. onshore wind), and dependent on electricity. cost reductions that have come • The high scenario: this scenario forward due to deployment in other For the wind and marine energy sector posits strong and consistent support countries. In the extreme, this as a whole, there is a large projected specifically for wind, wave and tidal, scenario results in no deployment of increase in ‘permanent’ jobs – those in order to meet renewable targets in marine technologies after 2018, as which are in place as long as the asset 2020, as well as to enhance energy they are not deemed to be worth the is operational – in each of the three security, and capture cost and long-term investment required. scenarios. wider economic benefits thereafter, including, as far as possible, to Direct employment in wind and marine The current projections predict slower maximise employment in the sector energy in 2023 could fall slightly, to growth in direct employment in the in the UK; 16,443 in the low scenario, or rise, wind and marine energy sector than • The medium scenario: in this to 55,683 in the high scenario (which did the earlier 2010 survey-based set scenario, support for wind, wave would in turn support almost as many of projections. In the analysis from and tidal exists but is weaker jobs again indirectly through the supply the previous study, the low scenario and inconsistent. A wider set of chain). projected direct employment of 28,700 renewable technologies is relied on in 2021, while the high scenario to meet 2020 targets, resulting in The largest increase in direct projected a potential employment figure lower delivery of the technologies employment over 2013–23 will be in 2.5 times the low scenario value, at under consideration here, and offshore wind; it accounts for more than 72,600 direct jobs. Depending on the growth thereafter is strongly half of all direct employment by 2023 in scenario chosen, much of the reason dependent on cost reduction. The each scenario, reflecting its importance for the lower growth now projected lies lack of clear support for the sector in a renewables-led low-carbon future, in a more cautious set of projections results in the UK capturing a lower particularly in the new high scenario for future UK deployment of wind and proportion of the industrial benefits, (an ambitious, but achievable, level of marine energy. This reflects delays particularly of offshore wind, which deployment). Due to the more advanced in the construction pipeline owing to is reflected in the fact that this nature of onshore wind deployment, policy uncertainty (principally around scenario is revised down from the and its expected slower rate of future the Electricity Market Reform). Current previous report; growth, large onshore employment is assumptions for future wind and • The low scenario: this scenario not expected to increase so significantly. marine energy capacity in 2021 range assumes that support is Indeed, overall employment associated between 25.8GW and 42.6GW, while the substantially withdrawn from wind, with this technology could fall if installed 2010-based projections for the same wave and tidal, resulting in low or capacity only increases modestly year were between 25.7GW and almost zero growth. Only the cheapest (although the employment would 52GW.4 ‘low-hanging fruit’ projects are favour operational jobs, rather than the developed, which are limited kind sustained by continued growth

4. Differences in the technology mix between vintages of assumptions will also be a factor behind the variation in projections, as will differences between the latest survey and levels of employment previously projected for 2012. CHARTS - SKILLS

Figure 5.1: Distribution of Employers by Technology Sector (%) Figure 5.2: Distribution of Employers by Activity (%) Figure 5.3: Occupational Structure of Employment 5.4

None of these

Marine CHARTSSupport Serv -ic SKILLSes Other employees incl. administrative Outsource work support staff Offshore wind Specialised transport Increase workload for other staff 2010 Figure 5.1: Distribution of Employers by Technology Sector (%) Figure 5.2: Distribution of Employers by Activity (%) Figure 5.3: Occupational Structure of Employment 5.4 Semi-skilled or operative job Small onshore wind 2013 Maintenance Have difﬁculties introducing new working …

Installation Skilled manual or technical jobs Increase operating costs None of these Medium onshore wind 2010 All sectors Marine Other employees incl. administrative Outsource work Construction 2013 Support Services Renewables Have difficulties meeting quality standards Large scale onshore wind Technical professional jobs support staff Offshore wind Specialised transport Increase workload for other staff Manufacture and manufacturing design 2010 Semi-skilled or operative jobDelay developing new products or services 2013 Have difficulties introducing new working Any onshore wind Small onshore wind MaintenancManage ement … Site planning and development Lose business or orders to competitors Installation Skilled manual or technical jobs Increase operating costs 0102030405060708090 Medium onshore wind 2010 All sectors 0102030405060 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Construction 2013 0%Renewables20%40% 60%8Have difficu0%lties meetin100%g quality standards Large scale onshore wind Technical professional jobs % of employers % of employers % of employment Manufacture and manufacturing design % of employDeerlasy developing new products or services Any onshore wind Management Site planning and development Lose business or orders to competitors 0102030405060708090 0102030405060 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0% 20%40% 60%80% 100% % of employers % of employers % of employment 5.5 5.5 --- VERSION 2!!!!! % of employers

5.5 5.5 --- VERSION 2!!!!!

Semi-skilled or operative job Semi -skilled or operative job Whole economy

Semi-skilled or operative job Renewables Semi -skilled or operative job Skilled manual or technical jobs Skilled manual or technical jobs Whole economy Renewables Skilled manual or technical jobs Skilled manual or technical jobs Whole economy Technical professional jobs Technical professional jobs Renewables Whole economy Technical professional jobs Technical professional jobs Renewables

Management Management Management Management

01020304050 01020304050 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40 % of female employment % of female employment % of female employment % of female employment

CHARTS - PROJECTIONS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 CHARTS - PROJECTIONS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS ACROSS WIND AND MARINE WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 WIDINDRE AND MCTARINE E ENMPLERGY, 2013OYMENT ACROSS DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT ENERGY, 2013 WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS ACROSS WIND AND MARINE WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 ENERGY, 2013 charts 2013

36% Onshore: large 25% Site Planning or development 27% Construction & Installation 15% Construction & Installation charts 2013 11% Manufacture or manufacturing design 5% Onshore: medium 16% Operation and maintenance 9% Operation and maintenance 27% Construction & Installation 30% Other direct 57% Other direct 25% Site Planning13% or developmentOnshore: small 36% Onshore: large 16% Operation and 27ma%intenancCoe nstruction & Installation 15% Construction & Installation 46% Indirect 37% Offshore 11% Manufacture or manufacturing design 18% Support services and other activities 5% Onshore: medium 16% Operation and maintenance 9% Operation and maintenance 9% Marine 27% Construction & Installation 1% Decommissioning 30% Other direct 57% Other direct 13% Onshore: small 2% Specialised Transport 16% Operation and maintenance 46% Indirect 37% Offshore 18% Support services and other activities

9% Marine 1% DecommiTotalssion inemployment:g 18,645 FTE Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 34,373 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 2% Specialised Transport

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 Total employment: 18,645 FTE WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 Total employment: 18,645 FTE AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 Total employment: 18,645 FTE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 Total employment: 34,373 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013

12000 Marine 62% England DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM28% Site Planning or development 29% Site Planning or development DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND 10000DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE Offshore SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 4% Wales SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design 12% Manufacture or manufacturing design Onshore: small 21% Scotland 8000 20% Construction & Installation 24% Construction & Installation Onshore: medium 4% N.Ireland 16% Operation and maintenance 15% Operation and maintenance 6000 Onshore: large 9% Mobile 24% Support services and other activities 17% Support services and other activities

Survey Results 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 4000 from mid-2013 12000 1% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 2000 62% England Marine 28% Site Planning or development 29% Site Planning or development 10000 4% Wales Total employment:Offshore 18,645 FTE 0 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design Total employment: 6,609 FTE 12% Manufacture or manufacturing design Total employment: 838 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 SurveyOn Resultsshore: fromsmal mil d-2013 England WalesScotlandN.Ireland Mobile 21% Scotland 8000 20% Construction & Installation 24% Construction & Installation Onshore: medium 4% N.Ireland 16% Operation and maintenance 15% Operation and maintenance 6000 Onshore: large 9% Mobile 24% Support services and other activities 17% Support services and other activities DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013 Survey Results 1% Decommissioning ACTIVITIES, 2013 1% Decommissioning 4000 from mid-2013 1% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 2000

Total employment: 18,645 FTE 0 Total employment: 6,609 FTE Total employment: 838 FTE 29% Site Planning or development 19% 27% Survey Results from mid-2013 England WalesScotlandN.Ireland Mobile Site PlanningSurvey or development Results from mid-2013 Site Planning or development Survey Results from mid-2013 13% Manufacture or manufacturing design 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design 19% Manufacture or manufacturing design

24% Construction & Installation 36% Construction & Installation 20% Construction & Installation

15% Operation and maintenance 18% Operation and maintenance 16% Operation and maintenance

16% Support services and other activities 14% Support services and other activities 16% Support services and other activities DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013 2% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 1% Specialised Transport

12 Total employment: 2,464 FTE Total employment: 6,830 FTE Total employment: 1,724 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 29% Site Planning or development 19% Site Planning or development Figure 3.5: Direct Employment Across Wind and Marine Energy by Technology,27% Si2013te Pl andanni 2023ng or developmentfurther along the lifecycle as deployment EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND 13% increases.AND In M particular,ARINE ENERGY a, much2013 AND greater 2023 Manufacture or manufacturing design MARINE ENER10GY%, 2013Manuf ANDactu 2023re or manufacturing design 19% Manufacture or manufacturing design REVISED proportion of employers are now 24% Construction & Installation 36% Construction & Installation 20% Construction & Installaengagedtion in installation and maintenance 15% Operation and maintenance 18% Operation and maintenance 16% Operation and maintenancactivitiese than was the case in 2010.

16% Support services and other activities 14% Support services and other activities 60000 16% Support services and Aot herhigh activitie proportions 6000 0of employers are Wave engaged in both construction/installation 1% Decommissioning 120000 1% Decommissioning 50000 1% Decommissioning 50000 Contracted Offshore and operations/maintenance. Many of 2% Specialised Transport 100000 Indirect 2% Specialised Transport 1% Specialised Transport Permanent charts-summaryprojections 40000 Small Onshore those are also 4000engaged0 in planning/ Direct 80000 Medium Onshore development and manufacturing, though 30000 30000 Large Onshore the degree of overlap is somewhat 60000 20000 lower. Total employment: 2,464 FTE Total employment: 6,830 FTE Total employment: 1,724 FTE 20000 Survey Results from mid-2013 40000 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 10000 A high proportion1000 0of employers are small 20000 0 businesses; over half of all employers DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND 0 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND0 2023 2013 LowMediumHigh in the sector employ fewer than 25 2013 LowMediumHigh (Survey) 2023 people, and 84% of employers2013 have 250 LowMediumHigh EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND (Survey) 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND (Survey) 2023 MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED employees or fewer. There has been a small increase in the representation of large firms in the sector since 2010. Figure 3.6: Permanent and Contracted Employment Across Wind and Marine Energy, 2013 and 2023

The occupational profile of the 60000 60000 wind and marine energy sector is Wave skewed towards relatively higher-skill 120000 50000 50000 Contracted Offshore occupations than the UK economy as 100000 Indirect Permanent a whole, with a higher proportion of charts-summaryprojections 40000 Small Onshore 40000 Direct jobs in management and technical and 80000 Medium Onshore 30000 professional occupations reported. 30000 Large Onshore Within the industry, there is a relatively 60000 20000 high proportion of people working in 20000 skilled trade occupations in the offshore 40000 10000 sector, while the large- and medium- 10000 20000 scale onshore wind sector and maritime 0 sector have a relative dependency on 0 0 2013 LowMediumHigh professional and associate professional LowMediumHigh 2023 2013 (Survey) 2013 LowMediumHigh occupations. (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 The industry is increasingly experiencing 3.3 Other labour market wind, and vice versa. There are also the problem of hard-to-fill vacancies, issues substantial overlaps between offshore with around a third of firms reporting wind and marine energy, though fewer they had such a vacancy during the Most firms in the wind and marine companies are likely to be involved in a past year. In 2010 only a quarter of energy sector are engaged in the combination of onshore wind and firms reported the issue. Overall, there onshore wind subsector, within which marine energy. were 1,000 hard-to-fill vacancies in the the large-scale subsector is the largest previous year, representing around 8% employer. Around 60% of firms are The proportion of firms engaged in all of the workforce. The most common involved in offshore wind, and just activities has increased since the 2010 factor for not being able to fill a vacancy under 40% are engaged in wave and survey, suggesting that firms have is reported to be a lack of skills, tidal energy. become more vertically integrated as qualifications or experience for the job. the sector has matured: the typical firm Across all industries in the UK, a large These figures imply that many firms operates in more activity types than proportion of hard-to-fill vacancies are in the sector are diversified (and more it would have back in 2010, reflecting in an occupation on which the wind so than in 2010), operating in multiple the changing needs of the sector. Site and marine energy sector is particularly technology areas. There are, perhaps planning and development remains a dependent. The sector is therefore in unsurprisingly, substantial overlaps dominant activity among firms in the competition with many other sectors for between the wind technologies, with sector (particularly in onshore wind), but people with the same skills. more than half of firms in engaged in the latest survey does begin to show onshore wind also engaged in offshore a shift in emphasis towards activities Just over 20% of the wind and marine 13

energy workforce is female. This is similar to the power sector as a whole but below the UK average,5 with women particularly under-represented in management occupations. However, compared to the power sector as a whole, the wind and marine energy sector has been more successful in employing women in technical and professional occupations, with over a quarter of the jobs in this category held by women. The wind and marine energy sector also does somewhat better than the power-sector average for employing women in skilled trades. Overall, there remains a need for more effort to attract women into the sector and to provide opportunities across the range of available careers.

5. A degree of caution is advised when drawing comparisons with other sectors of the economy, because the wind and marine energy survey undertaken for this study is survey of employers, whereas the existing surveys for other sectors are of individuals (employees). CHARTS - SKILLS

Figure 5.1: Distribution of Employers by Technology Sector (%) Figure 5.2: Distribution of Employers by Activity (%) Figure 5.3: Occupational Structure of Employment 5.4

None of these

5.5 5.5 --- VERSION 2!!!!!

Semi-skilled or operative job Semi -skilled or operative job Whole economy

Renewables Skilled manual or technical jobs Skilled manual or technical jobs

Whole economy Technical professional jobs Technical professional jobs Renewables

Management Management

01020304050 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40

% of female employment % of female employment

9% Marine 1% Decommissioning

2% Specialised Transport 4. Future Employment by Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 34,373 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 SurveyTechnology Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND 4.1 Large-scale onshore DIFigureRECT EMPL 4.1:OY MEDirectNT IN LA EmploymentRGE in Large-Scale Onshore Activities, 2013 SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 wind SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013

Recent developments

12000 Large-scale onshore wind schemes are 62% England Marine 28% Site Planning or development 29% Site Planning or development 10000 those with turbines over 500kW in size. Offshore 4% Wales They account for the vast majority of 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design 12% Manufacture or manufacturing design Onshore: small 21% Scotland 8000 current installed onshore wind capacity. 20% Construction & Installation 24% Construction & Installation Onshore: medium 4% N.Ireland Since 2010, installed capacity has 16% Operation and maintenance 15% Operation and maintenance 6000 Onshore: large 9% Mobile increased by 2GW. Schemes that have 24% Support services and other activities 17% Support services and other activities Survey Results 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 4000 started operating recently include the from mid-2013 144MW site at Fallago and the 53MW 1% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 2000 in Baillie, both in Scotland, while work is currently underway on constructing Total employment: 18,645 FTE 0 Total employment: 6,609 FTE Total employment: 838 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 England WalesScotlandN.Ireland Mobarraysile such as the 66MW Berryburn site EMPLOYMENT ACROSS LARGE Survey Results from mid-2013 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE Survey Results from mid-2013 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED VERSION ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH in Scotland. Development of onshore ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 SCENARIO REVISED VERSION wind farms overall has continued apace FUTURE CAPACITY: LARGE ONSHORE over the last three years, and there is DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 the potential for further strong growth Figure 4.2: Employment Across Large Onshore Activities, 2013 and 2023 ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013 in capacity in the future. Among the schemes to gain consent recently are MW 16000 the 76MW scheme at Strathy North, the Jobs MW Indirect 10000 Support and other 14000 20000 177MW Dorenell project, the 370.8MW 10000 20000 Viking Wind Project (all in Scotland), Direct Decommissioning 29% Site Planning or development 19% Site Planning or development 12000 27% Site Planning or development Support and other charts_large onshore and the 228MW Pen Y Cymoedd site in 8000 13% Manufacture or manufacturing design 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design 19% Manufacture or manufacturing design Specialised transport South Wales. 10000 8000 Decommissioning 15000 15000 24% Construction & Installation 36% Construction & Installation 20% Construction & Installation Operation/maintenance High 6000 Specialised transport 15% Operation and maintenance 18% Operation and maintenance 8000 16% Operation and maintenance Current employment Construction/installation 6000 16% Support services and other activities 14% Support services and other activitieMedisum 6000 16% Support services and other activities Operation/maintenance 10000 1% Decommissioning 10000 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 4000 Design/manufacture From the survey it is estimatedLow that 4000 Construction/installation 2% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 1% Specialised Transport 4000 employment in large-scale onshore Planning/development Design/manufacture wind stands at 6,609 FTE, an increase 2000 2000 5000 5000 Planning/development Total employment: 2,464 FTE Totalof 600employment: FTE since 6,830 2010. FTE Of these 0 Total employment: 1,724 FTE 2000 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey6,609 Results FTE jobs,from mi 1,328d-2013 FTE jobs are in Survey Results from mid-2013 Capacity 2013 Low Medium High 0 construction and installation. Operation (Survey) 2023 2013 LowMediumHigh 0 0 0 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND and maintenance activities employ 1,038 (Survey) 2023 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 202120222023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20212FTE,02 22and 645023 FTE are engaged directly EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 in manufacturing or manufacturing •AND MLowARINE deployment ENERGY, 2013 A scenario:ND 2023 11.55GWREVISED Key assumptions made in each scenario DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE design. capacity in 2023; 4,740 direct FTE, relate to the extent toREVISED which theVERSIO UK Nalso REVISED VERSION ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM SCENARIO LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH 3,302 indirectSC ENFTEARIO provides goods and services to supply GROWTH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO REVISED VERSIOFutureN prospects large onshore deployment elsewhere 60000 60000 The outcome for direct employment in Europe. In the high scenario, the UK Wave 120000 50000 Overview depends5000 0critically on the Colevelntract ofed future is projected to be able to contribute Offshore 100000 Indirect capacity. Under the high Pedeploymentrmanent to the development of some 17GW charts-summaryprojections 40000 Small Onshore 40000 Direct Three scenarios have been modelled, scenario, employment increases by of cumulative capacity elsewhere in 80000 Medium Onshore 30000 with the following outcomes: 1,900 3000between0 the start of 2013 and Europe by 2023 (2–3GW a year beyond Large Onshore 60000 through to 2023, whereas it could fall 2020). This is approximately the same Job 20000 MW Contracted • High deployment scenario: 16.95GW by anJo 2000equivalentb 0 amount in the low total capacity as thatMW anticipated to be 40000 10000 20000 Support and other Perm1000anent0 10000 20000 Support and other Contracted 10000 capacity in 2023; 8,596 direct FTE, deployment10000 scenario. However, in each installed in the UK by 2023. UK supply 10000 20000 Permanent Decommissioning 0 6,418 indirect FTE scenario there are more ‘long-term’ jobs to overseas markets is much lower in Sptheec ialised transport 0 8000 0 2013 LowMediumH• Mediumigh deployment scenario: – those associated with the running of medium and low scenarios, amounting 8000 Specialised transport 8000 8000 Decommissioning 15000 2013 LowMediumHigh (Survey) 2023 15.2GW capacity in 2023; 6,515 the schemes – in2013 2023 than there areLo wMto ed2,100MWiumH andigh 850MW15000 respectively, (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 Operation/maintenance direct FTE, 4,489 indirect FTE currently. with correspondingly lower annual Operation/maintenance 6000 6000 6000 6000 Construction/installation 10000 Construction/installation 10000 4000 4000 4000 Design/manufacture 4000 Design/manufacture Planning/development Planning/development 5000 2000 5000 2000 2000 Capacity 2000 Capacity

0 0 0 0 2013 2014 20152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 2013 201420152016 2017201820192020 20212022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW REVISED VERSION GROWTH SCENARIO

10000

Contracted 8000 Permanent

6000

4000

2000

0 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MEDIUM REVISED VERSION DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO FUTURE CAPACITY: MEDIUM ONSHORE

MW 10000

600 Support and other 10000 Job MW Indirect 8000 Decommissioning 10000 600 500 Direct 8000 Specialised transport Support and other charts_medium onshore 6000 500 High 8000 400 Operation/maintenance Decommissioning 6000 Medium 400 4000 Construction/installation Specialised transport 300 6000 Low Design/manufacture Operation/maintenance 4000 300 200 2000 Planning/development 4000 Construction/installation 200 2000 Design/manufacture 100 0 2013 LowMediumHigh 2000 Planning/development (Survey) 2023 100 0 0 Capacity LowMediumHigh 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 (Survey) 0 0 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 20212022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO

Jobs MW Jobs MW 10000 10000 10000 600 Support and other 10000 600 Support and other Contracted Decommissioning Contracted 8000 500 8000 500 Decommissioning Permanent 8000 Permanent 8000 Specialised transport Specialised transport 400 400 6000 Operation/maintenance 6000 6000 6000 Operation/maintenance 300 Construction/installation 300 Construction/installation 4000 4000 4000 Design/manufacture 4000 Design/manufacture 200 200 Planning/development 2000 Planning/development 2000 2000 Capacity 2000 100 100 Capacity

0 0 0 0 0 0 201320142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20212022 2023 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192020202120222023

GROWTH SCENARIO

10000

8000

Contracted 6000 Permanent

4000

2000

0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 15

EMPLOYMENT ACROSS LARGE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED VERSION ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 SCENARIO REVISED VERSION Figure 4.3: Direct Employment in Large Onshore Activities, 2013 and 2023 FUTURE CAPACITY: LARGE ONSHORE rates of deployment (100–150MW in the medium scenario and almost no growth in the low scenario over the entire period). MW 16000 Jobs MW Indirect 10000 Support and other 14000 20000 These scenarios are less optimistic 10000 20000 Direct Decommissioning 12000 about the future level of installed Support and other charts_large onshore 8000 capacity than the earlier 2010-based Specialised transport 10000 8000 Decommissioning 15000 15000 scenarios due to ongoing policy and Operation/maintenance High 8000 6000 Specialised transport political uncertainty in a number of areas. Construction/installation 6000 Medium 6000 These previous scenarios had a range for Operation/maintenance 10000 4000 Design/manufacture 10000 Low Construction/installation 4000 installed capacity in 2020 of 10–16GW, 4000 Planning/development supporting employment of between Design/manufacture 2000 2000 5000 5000 6,500 and 11,900 FTE. In comparison, Planning/development 0 2000 the current scenarios have capacity in Capacity 2013 Low Medium High 0 (Survey) 2023 2020 ranging from 10.2GW–14.2GW. 2013 LowMediumHigh 0 0 0 (Survey) 2023 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 202120222023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202120222023 These revisions to the scenarios reflect

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE greater policy uncertainty than was felt PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE REVISED VERSION REVISED VERSION ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH previously, with the implications for the LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM SCENARIO LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO REVISED VERSION UK onshore wind industry dependent on forthcoming policies (such as the Electricity Market Reform) as well as on the longer-term consequences of recently concluded policy debates, such as those on Renewables Obligation (RO) Job MW Contracted Job MW banding levels and national planning 10000 20000 Support and other Permanent 10000 20000 Support and other Contracted 10000 reforms. These recent and forthcoming 10000 Decommissioning Specialised transport Permanent legislative and policy changes will 8000 8000 Specialised transport 8000 8000 Decommissioning 15000 15000affect industry confidence and, in turn, Operation/maintenance future deployment.Operation/ Themainte managementnance 6000 6000 6000 6000 of the industry’sConstr transitionuction/installa fromtion the RO 10000 Construction/installation 10000to Contracts for Difference (CfDs), for 4000 4000 4000 Design/manufacture 4000 example, andDe thesign/m scaleanufac ofture future political Planning/development ambition, willPl haveanning/d aev significantelopment bearing 5000 2000 5000 2000 2000 Capacity 2000 on the growthCa patrajectorycity of the sector. 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 20152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 2013 201420152016 2017201820192020 20212022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW REVISED VERSION GROWTH SCENARIO

10000

Contracted 8000 Permanent

6000

4000

2000

0 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

MW 10000

GROWTH SCENARIO

10000

8000

Contracted 6000 Permanent

4000

2000

0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 EMPLOYMENT ACROSS LARGE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED VERSION ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 SCENARIO REVISED VERSION

FUTURE CAPACITY: LARGE ONSHORE 16

EMPLOYMENT ACROSS LARGE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE DIRECTMW EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE 16000 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED VERSION ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH Jobs ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 SCENARIO REVISED VERSION MW Indirect 10000 Support and other 14000 High scenario for large-scale Figure20000 4.4: Direct Employment in Large Onshore Activities, High Growth Scenario 10000 20000 FUTURE CAPACITY: LARGE ONSHORE Direct Decommissioning onshore wind (16.95GW capacity 12000 Support and other charts_large onshore 8000 in 2023; 8,596 direct FTE) Specialised transport 10000 8000 Decommissioning 15000 15000 MW Operation/maintenance 16000 Specialised transport This scenario is one in which installed Jobs MW High 8000 6000 Indirect 10000 Support and other 6000 20000 14000 Construction/installation capacity rises from its current level of 10000 20000 Medium 6000 Operation/maintenance Direct Decommissioning 10000 12000 5.5GW to 16.95GW in 2023. Compared 10000 Support and other 4000 Design/manufacture charts_large onshore 8000 Low Construction/installation to the previousSp ecstudy,ialised tr theansp oroptimismt 4000 4000 10000 8000 Decommissioning Planning/development 15000 15000 Design/manufacture of the high deploymentOperation/main scenariotenance has 2000 2000 High 8000 6000 Specialised transport 5000 been scaled back, with projections for 5000 Planning/development Construction/installation 6000 0 2000 Medium 6000 Operation/maintenance 15.2GW of installed capacity in 2021 Capacity 10000 4000 Design/manufacture 10000 2013 Low Medium High Low Construction/installation 0 4000 (from 16GW previously, a reduction of 4000 (Survey) 2023 2013 LowMediumHigh Planning/development 2023 0 0 5%), and deployment continuing at the 0 Design/manufacture (Survey) 2000 2000 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 202120222023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 50002020 202120222023 5000 current rate of about 1GW/year rather Planning/development 0 2000 Low Medium High than increasing. Higher deployment Capacity 2013 0 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE (Survey) 2023 2013 LowMediumHigh REVISED VERSION REVISED VERSION ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH is possible, however, as this scenario 0 0 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM SCENARIO 0 (Survey) 2023 LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH is achievable with the current project 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 202120222023 SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202120222023 GROWTH SCENARIO pipeline and delivery capability, coupled REVISED VERSION DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE REVISED VERSION REVISEDwith VERSIO consistentN policy support. The ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM SCENARIO LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO growth in installed capacity is stronger Figure 4.5: Permanent and Contracted Jobs in Large Onshore Activities, High Growth GROWTH SCENARIO REVISED VERSION in the earlier part of the period in this Scenario scenario, with annual increases in

capacity of 1.1–1.2GW, after which they Job MW Contracted Job MW slow. Looking further out, the annual 10000 20000 Support and other Permanent 10000 20000 Support and other Contracted increase in installed capacity continues 10000 10000 Job Decommissioning to slow in this scenario. While policy MW Specialised transport Permanent Contracted Job MW 10000 20000 Support and other 8000 Support and other Contracted 8000 Specialised transport Permanent 10000 20000 10000 support is assumed to be high, limits 8000 8000 Decommissioning 15000 10000 15000 Permanent Decommissioning Specialised transport on the rate of deployment arise as the Operation/maintenance 8000 Operation/maintenance 6000 8000 Specialised transport 6000 8000 8000 Decommissioning number of suitable sites falls. As time 6000 15000 6000 15000 Construction/installation 10000 Construction/installation goes on, deployment activity will be Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 6000 10000 6000 6000 4000 Design/manufacture 6000 bolstered by the repowering of sites, but 4000 Design/manufacture 4000 Construction/installation 10000 Construction/installation 4000 10000 by 2023 this will not be a large effect. Planning/development 4000 Design/manufacture Planning/development 5000 4000 Design/manufacture 4000 4000 2000 5000 2000 2000 Capacity Planning/development 2000 Capacity Planning/development Figure 4.4 illustrates the outcome for the 5000 2000 5000 2000 2000 Capacity 2000 0 0 Capacity high scenario for large-scale onshore 0 0 2013 2014 20152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 wind. 2013 201420152016 2017201820192020 20212022 2023 0 0 2013 2014 20152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 2013 201420152016 2017201820192020 20212022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 The effect of the slowdown in new PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN capacity being installed over the second 2023 employmentLARGE ONSHORE ACT inIV operationITIES, LOW and (the workREVISED is not VERSIO repeatableN in the way PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN GROWTH SCENARIO LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW REVISED VERSION GROWTH SCENARIO half of the period lowers the number maintenance activities reaches 2,844 a permanent job is). In that sense, the of jobs associated with planning and FTE, up from just over 1,038 at present. increase in operations and maintenance development during this period,6 as jobs both offsets the reduction in well as the number of construction The shift in the composition of jobs away planning and development jobs and also and installation jobs. Planning and from planning and other pre-operations marks a longer-term shift towards more development activities made up around activities and towards operations, permanent job roles. 30% of employment in 2013, and maintenance and support represents construction and installation jobs a a shift away from contracted jobs and Demand for manufacturing and 10000 further 20%. By 2023, they each account towards10000 permanent jobs. manufacturing design activities is Contracted for about 10% of direct employment in influenced by the rate of deployment of 8000 Contracted Permanent this scenario. Permanent8000 jobs relate to longer-lasting the technology in the UK and overseas elements of the asset lifecycle and (and included in the ‘contracted’Permanent 6000 At the same time, the number of remain6000 for as long as the corresponding classification in Figure 4.5). In 2023 operation and maintenance jobs rises capacity is in place, rising steadily employment in the activity is almost 4000 through the period as the requirement through to 2023. In contrast, there is double current levels, at 1,177 FTE. 4000 to service the additional capacity only a demand for contracted jobs in the Employment levels might turn out higher 2000 exceeds the efficiency effects. By year that a particular activity is required a few years earlier, depending on the 2000 profile of the capacity increases. 0 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 6. The majority of these jobs will relate to new build, with a comparatively small0 number associated with repowering activities. Employment opportunities in repowering are likely to become more DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM important in the mid-2020s onwards (i.e. beyond the horizon of this current2013 study). 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MEDIUM REVISED VERSION DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED VERSION DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM FUTURE CAPACITY: MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ONSHORE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO FUTURE CAPACITY: MEDIUM MW 10000 ONSHORE

600 Support and other 10000 Job MW Indirect 8000 Decommissioning 10000 MW 600 10000 500 Direct 8000 Specialised transport 600 Support and other charts_medium onshore Support and other 6000 500 10000 Job MW High 8000 400 Operation/maintenance Decommissioning Indirect 8000 Decommissioning 6000 10000 600 Medium 500 400 4000 Construction/installation Specialised transport Direct 300 6000 8000 Specialised transport Low Support and other Design/manufacture charts_medium onshore Operation/maintenance 6000 500 4000 300 8000 400 High Operation/maintenance 200 2000 Planning/development Decommissioning 4000 Construction/installation Medium 6000 200 Construction/installation 400 2000 4000 Specialised transport 300 Design/manufacture 6000 100 0 Low Design/manufacture 2013 LowMediumHigh 2000 Planning/development Operation/maintenance (Survey) 2023 100 4000 300 0 0 200 Capacity 2000 Planning/development 2013 LowMediumHigh 4000 Construction/installation 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (Survey) 0 0 200 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 20212022 2023 2000 Design/manufacture 100 0 2013 LowMediumHigh 2000 Planning/development (Survey) 2023 100 0 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYME0NT IN MEDIUM Capacity ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO 2013 LowMediumHigh GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM (Survey) 0 0 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 20212022 2023 SCENARIO

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO Jobs GROWTH SCENARIO MW PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN Jobs 10000 MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM MW DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO 10000 10000 600 Support and other 10000 600 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH Support and other Contracted Decommissioning SCENARIO Contracted 8000 500 8000 500 Decommissioning Permanent 8000 Permanent 8000 Specialised transport Specialised transport 400 400 6000 Operation/maintenance 6000 6000 Operation/maintenance Jobs MW 6000 Jobs 10000 300 Construction/installation MW 300 Construction/installation 10000 10000 600 Support and other 4000 4000 4000 Design/manufacture 10000 600 4000 Support and other Contracted Design/manufacture 200 Decommissioning 200 Contracted Planning/development 8000 500 8000 500 Decommissioning Permanent 8000 2000 Planning/development 2000 2000 Capacity 8000 Specialised transport 2000 Permanent 100 100 Capacity Specialised transport 400 400 6000 Operation/maintenance 6000 0 0 6000 0 0 Operation/maintenance 0 0 201320142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20212022 2023 6000 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Construction/installation 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192020202120222023 300 300 Construction/installation 4000 4000 4000 Design/manufacture 4000 Design/manufacture 200 200 Planning/development GROWTH SCENARIO 2000 Planning/development 2000 2000 Capacity 2000 100 100 Capacity

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8000 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Contracted 6000 Permanent

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FUTURE CAPACITY: LARGE ONSHORE

MW 16000 Jobs MW Indirect 10000 Support and other 14000 20000 10000 20000 Direct Decommissioning 12000 Support and other charts_large onshore 8000 Specialised transport 10000 8000 Decommissioning 15000 15000 Operation/maintenance High 8000 6000 Specialised transport Construction/installation 6000 Medium 6000 Operation/maintenance 10000 4000 Design/manufacture 10000 Low Construction/installation 4000 4000 Planning/development Design/manufacture 2000 2000 5000 5000 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS LARGE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE 2000 Planning/development ONSHOR0E ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED VERSION ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 SCENARIO REVISED VERSION Capacity 2013 Low Medium High 0 (Survey) 2023 2013 LowMediumHigh 0 0 FUTURE CAPACITY: LARGE ONSHORE 0 (Survey) 2023 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 202120222023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202017 202120222023

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH REVISED VERSION LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM REVISED VERSION ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH MW LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO 16000 SCENARIO GROWTHJo SCbsENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO MW Indirect REVISED VERSION 10000 Support and other 14000 20000 Medium deployment scenario Figure 4.6: Direct Employment in Large Onshore Activities, Medium Growth Scenario 10000 20000 Direct Decommissioning 12000 (15.2GW capacity in 2023; 6,515 Support and other charts_large onshore 8000 direct FTE) Specialised transport 10000 8000 Decommissioning 15000 15000 Operation/maintenance High 8000 6000 Specialised transport For the medium deployment scenario, Job MW Contracted Job MW Construction/installation 6000 Medium large-scale onshore wind capacity Operation/1ma000in0tenance 20000 Support and other 6000 Support and other Contracted Permanent 10000 20000 10000 10000 10000 4000 Design/manufacture 10000 Low increases to just over 15GW in 2023. Decommissioning 4000 Specialised transport Permanent Construction/installation This means capacity in 2023 is 10% 4000 8000 Planning/development 8000 Specialised transport 8000 8000 Decommissioning Design/manufacture 15000 2000 lower than in the high deployment 2000 15000 5000 Operation/maintenance 5000 Operation/maintenance 6000 scenario. The scenario assumes a 6000 2000 Planning/development 0 6000 6000 Construction/installation Low marked slowdown in additional capacity Construction/installation Capacity 10000 2013 Medium High 0 10000 (Survey) 2023 2013 LowMediumHigh 4000 4000 Design/manufacture 4000 for several years after 2015, due to Design/manufacture 0 0 0 4000 (Survey) 2023 posited uncertainty regarding future 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 202120222023 Planning/development 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202120222023 Planning/development 5000 2000 support for this technology, but also 5000 2000 2000 Capacity 2000 Capacity projects that the rate of new deployment DIRECT EMPLOYME0 NT IN LARGE PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 0 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE REVISED VERSION REVISED VERSION ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH 0 0 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH will increase again in the latter half of LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM SCENARIO 2013 2014 20152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO 2013 201420152016 2017201820192020 20212022 2023 GROWTH SCENARIO the period at something like the rate 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 REVISED VERSION seen recently as Government focuses PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW REVISEDon VERSIO the Nneed to meet its 2020 targets GROWTH SCENARIO and recognises the low-cost nature Figure 4.7: Permanent and Contracted Jobs in Large Onshore Activities, Medium of onshore wind up to that point and Growth Scenario beyond.

Job MW Contracted Job MW Figure 4.6 shows that in this scenario 10000 20000 Support and other Permanent 10000 20000 Support and other Contracted 10000 direct employment is lower in 2023 than 10000 Decommissioning is currently Sptheec case.ialised trEmploymentansport does Permanent 8000 8000 Specialised transport 8000 8000 10000 rise from currentDecommi levelsssion induringg the period, 15000 15000 with a peak of 7,548 jobs in 2019. Operation/maintenance ContractOpederation/maintenance 6000 6000 6000 6000 8000 PermanentConstruction/installation 10000 Construction/installation 10000The main factor behind the fall in 4000 6000 employment projected over the latter 4000 4000 Design/manufacture 4000 Design/manufacture part of the period in this scenario is Planning/development Planning/development 5000 2000 4000 5000 the lower level of people employed 2000 2000 Capacity 2000 in planning Caandpa cidevelopment.ty This 0 2000 0 reflects both a decrease in the rate of 0 0 2013 2014 20152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 deployment in the long-term (lower 2013 201420152016 2017201820192020 20212022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 planning activity) but also economies of 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 scale2020 as 2021learning2022 rates2023 increase (entailing PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW REVISED VERSION fewer planners per MW). DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MEDIUM REVISED VERSION DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH The number of jobs in construction and SCENARIO FUTURE CAPACITY: MEDIUM installation fluctuate through the period ONSHORE alongside the profile for annual increases in installed capacity. Employment in MW 2023 is forecast at about half what it is 10000 600 Support and other now, at 706 jobs. 10000 Job MW Indirect 8000 Decommissioning 10000 600 500 10000 Direct In contrast, the number of jobs in 8000 Specialised transport Support and other charts_medium onshore 6000 500 operation and maintenanceHi ghand other 8000 Contracted 400 Operation/maintenance Decommissioning 8000 support activities increases through to 6000 Medium 400 Permanent 4000 Construction/installation Specialised transport 300 2023 in this scenario, despite efficiencies 6000 Low Design/manufacture Operation/maintenance 6000 achieved though learning effects as 4000 300 200 2000 Planning/development overall capacity increases. As Figure 4.7 4000 Construction/installation 200 shows, these ‘longer-term’ jobs related 2000 Design/manufacture 4000 100 to the operational phase of the asset’s 0 2013 LowMediumHigh 2000 Planning/development (Survey) 2023 100 0 lifecycle almost double, going from 2,703 0 Capacity 2000 LowMediumHigh 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 at the start of 2013 to 4,936 by 2023. (Survey) 0 0 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 20212022 2023 0 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM REVISED VERSION GROWTH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ONONSHOROREE AC ACTIVITITIVIESTI,ES, MEDI 2013UM GR ANDOWTH 2023 SCENARIO ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO FUTURE CAPACITY: MEDIUM ONSHORE Jobs MW Jobs MW 10000 10000 10000 600 Support and other MW 10000 600 Support and other Contracted 10000 Decommissioning Contracted 8000 Decommissioning Permanent 500 600 8000 500 Support and other Job 8000 Permanent 100008000 MW Specialised transport Indirect Specialised transport 8000 Decommissioning 400 400 6000 10000 600 Operation/maintenance 500 6000 6000 Direct Operation/maintenance 80006000 Specialised transport Support and other 300 Construction/installation charts_medium onshore 6000 300 Construction/installation 500 High 4000 8000 4000 400 4000 Operation/maintenance Decommissioning Design/manufacture 4000 200 6000 Design/manufacture Medium 200 400 Planning/development 4000 Construction/installation Specialised transport 300 2000 Planning/development 2000 6000 2000 Capacity Low 2000 100 100 Capacity Design/manufacture Operation/maintenance 4000 300 0 0 200 2000 0 Planning/development 0 0 0 4000 Construction/installati201on 320142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20212022 2023 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192020202122002022023 2000 Design/manufacture 100 0 2013 LowMediumHigh 2000 Planning/development (Survey) 2023 100 0 GROWTH SCENARIO 0 Capacity LowMediumHigh 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 (Survey) 0 0 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 20212022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH 10000 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH 800SC0 ENARIO

Contracted 6000 Permanent Jobs MW Jobs MW 10000 4000 10000 10000 600 Support and other 10000 600 Support and other Contracted Decommissioning Contracted 2000 8000 500 8000 500 Decommissioning Permanent 8000 Permanent 8000 Specialised transport Specialised transport 400 0 400 6000 Operation/maintenance 6000 6000 6000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Operatio2021n/mainte2022nance 2023 300 Construction/installation 300 Construction/installation 4000 4000 4000 Design/manufacture 4000 Design/manufacture 200 200 Planning/development 2000 Planning/development 2000 2000 Capacity 2000 100 100 Capacity

GROWTH SCENARIO

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FUTURE CAPACITY: LARGE ONSHORE

EMPLOYMENT ACROSS LARGE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE DIREMWCT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE 16000 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED VERSION ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH Jobs ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 MW SCENARIO REVISED VERSION Indirect 10000 Support and other 14000 20000 10000 20000 FUTURE CAPACITY: LARGE ONSHORE Direct Decommissioning 12000 Support and other charts_large onshore 8000 Specialised transport 10000 8000 Decommissioning 15000 15000 Operation/maintenance MW High 6000 Specialised transport 16000 Jobs 8000 MW Construction/installation 6000 Indirect 10000 Support and other Medium 14000 6000 Operation/maintenance 20000 10000 20000 10000 4000 Design/manufacture 10000 Direct Decommissioning Low 12000 Support and other 4000 Construction/installation charts_large onshore 4000 8000 Planning/development Specialised transport Design/manufacture 10000 8000 Decommissioning 2000 15000 15000 2000 Operation/maintenance 5000 5000 Specialised transport Planning/development High 8000 6000 0 2000 6000 Construction/installation Low Capacity Medium 6000 Operation/maintenance 2013 Medium High 0 2023 2013 LowMediumHigh 10000 4000 Design/manufacture 10000 (Survey) Low 0 0 4000 0 Construction/installation (Survey) 2023 4000 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 202120222023 Planning/development 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202120222De02sign3 /manufacture 2000 2000 5000 5000 Planning/development 0 2000 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH Capacity ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH REVISED VERSION LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM REVISED VERSION 2013 Low Medium High 0 SCENARIO LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO (Survey) 2023 2013 LowMediumHigh 0GROWTH SCENARIO 0 0 (Survey) 2023 REVISED VERSION 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 202120222023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202120222023 18

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE REVISED VERSION REVISED VERSION ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM SCENARIO LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO REVISED VERSION Low deployment scenario Figure 4.8: Direct Employment in Large Onshore Activities, Low Growth Scenario Job MW (11.55GW capacity in 2023; 4,740 Contracted Job MW 10000 20000 Support and other Permanent 10000 20000 Support and other Contracted direct FTE) 10000 10000 Decommissioning Specialised transport Permanent 8000 8000 Specialised transport In this scenario the deployment of large 8000 8000 Decommissioning 15000 Job MW 15000 Contracted Job MW onshore wind reaches 11.5GW by 2023. Operation/maintenance 10000 20000 Support and other Operation/maintenance 6000 Support and other Contracted 6000 Permanent 10000 20000 10000 The scenario sees a sharp slow-down 6000 6000 10000 Construction/installation Permanent Decommissioning Construction/installation 10000 Specialised transport in the rate of deployment from that seen 10000 8000 4000 Design/manufacture 8000 4000 Specialised transport 4000 8000 8000 Decommissioning recently, to 300–700 MW. 15000 4000 Design/manufacture 15000 Planning/development Operation/maintenance Planning/development 5000 Operation/maintenance 6000 6000 6000 2000 5000 2000 2000 Capacity 6000 As Figure 4.8 shows, overall direct 2000 Construction/installation 10000 Construction/installation Capacity 10000 employment in the sector is generally 4000 4000 4000 0 Design/manufacture 0 4000 Design/manufacture 0 0 on a downward trend through to 2023, 2013 2014 20152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Planning/development 2013 201420152016 2017201820192020 20212022 2023 Planning/development though there is a modest pickup in 5000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2000 5000 2000 2000 Capacity 2000 Capacity employment in the middle of the period. PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 0 0 By 2023, employment is projected to be LA0 RGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW REVISED0 VERSION 2013 2014 20152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 GROWTH SCENARIO 0 0 some 1,800 lower than current levels, 2013 201420152016 2017201820192020 20212022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 and almost half that estimated in the

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN high-deployment scenario, though we do LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW REVISED VERSION GROWTH SCENARIO see a rise in the number of permanent Figure 4.9: Permanent and Contracted Jobs in Large Onshore Activities, Low Growth jobs from current levels, as explained Scenario below.

The slowdown in deployment in this 10000 scenario impacts on those engaged in manufacturing and designing equipment. Contracted 8000 Their number could fall to a few hundred Permanent 10000 (alongside a drop in the value of 6000 Contracted demand). 8000 Permanent As in the other deployment scenarios, 4000 6000 the lower number of jobs is associated with planning and development and 2000 4000 construction and installation. The number of jobs in operations and 0 2000 maintenance and other business support 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

0 activities rise. With lower capacity than DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MEDIUM REVISED VERSION DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM in the other scenarios, the sector is not ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH able to realise the same level of learning DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM SCENARIO EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MEDIUM REVISEDefficiencies. VERSION As a result, operations and DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 FUTURE CAPACITY: MEDIUM maintenance jobs per MW installed ONSHORONE ACTSHORIVEITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO are higher than in the high or medium FUTURE CAPACITY: MEDIUM MW ONSHORE deployment scenarios, but direct 10000

employment is lower. 600 Support and other 10000 Job MW MW Indirect 10000 8000 Decommissioning 10000 600 500 600 Support and other Direct 10000 Job 8000 MW Specialised transport Support and other Indirect charts_medium onshore 8000 Decommissioning 10000 600 6000 500 400 High 8000 500 Direct Operation/maintenance Decommissioning 8000 Specialised transport Support and other 6000

charts_medium onshore Medium 6000 500 Construction/installation 400 8000 4000 Specialised transport 400 High Operation/maintenance 300 6000 Decommissioning Low 6000 Design/manufacture Operation/maintenance Medium 400 4000 300 4000 Construction/installation Specialised transport 300 6000 200 2000 Planning/development Low 4000 Construction/installation Design/manufacture Operation/maintenance 4000 300 200 2000 Design/manufacture 200 2000 Planning/development 4000 100 Construction/installation 0 200 2013 LowMediumHigh 2000 Planning/development 2000 Design/manufacture (Survey) 2023 100 100 0 0 0 Capacity 2013 LowMediumHigh 2000 LowMediumHigh 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Planning2023/development 2013 (Survey) 2023 100 (Survey) 0 0 0 0 Capacity LowMediumHigh 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 20212022 2023 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 (Survey) 0 0 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 20212022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN GROWTH SCENARIO MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO

Jobs MW Jobs MW 10000 10000Jobs MW 10000 600 Support and other Jobs MW 10000 10000 600 10000 10000 600 Support and other Contracted Support and other Decommissioning 10000 600 8000 Support and other Contracted Contracted 500 8000 Decommissioning 500 Decommissioning Permanent 8000 Contracted 8000 Permanent 500 8000 Specialised transport Decommissioning Permanent 8000 8000 500 Specialised transport Permanent 8000 Specialised transport 400 400 6000 Operation/maintenance Specialised transport 6000 400 6000 400 6000 Operation/maintenance 6000 Operation/maintenance 6000 6000 Construction/installation 6000 Operation/maintenance 300 300 Construction/installation 300 Construction/installation 300 4000 4000 4000 Design/manufacture Construction/installation 4000 4000 4000 4000 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture 200 4000 Design/manufacture 200 200 Planning/development 200 Planning/development Planning/development 2000 2000 2000 100 Capacity 2000 Planning/development 2000 2000 Capacity 2000 2000 100 100 Capacity 100 Capacity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 201320142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20212022 2023 0 0 20120133201422010154220160152017 201820162019 20172020 202201812022 20232019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192020202120222023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192020202120222023

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0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 EMPLOYMENT ACROSS LARGE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED VERSION ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 SCENARIO REVISED VERSION

CHARTS - SKILLS FUTURE CAPACITY: LARGE ONSHORE

Figure 5.1: Distribution of Employers by Technology Sector (%) Figure 5.2: Distribution of Employers by Activity (%) Figure 5.3: Occupational Structure of Employment 5.4

MW 16000 Jobs None of these MW Indirect 10000 Support and other 14000 Marine 20000 10000 20000 Other employees incl. administrative Outsource work Support Services Direct Decommissioning support staff 12000 Support and other Offshore wind Specialised transport charts_large onshore Increase workload for other staff 8000 2010 Specialised transport Semi-skilled or operative job 10000 8000 Decommissioning Small onshore wind 2013 Maintenance 15000 Have difﬁculties introducing new working … 15000 Operation/maintenance High 6000 Specialised transport Installation Skilled manual or technical jobs 8000 Increase operating costs Medium onshore wind 2010 All sectors Construction/installation 6000 Medium Operation/maintenance Construction 2013 Renewables Ha6000ve difﬁculties meeting quality standards Technical professional jobs Large scale onshore wind 10000 4000 Design/manufacture 10000 Manufacture and manufacturing design Low Construction/installation De4000lay developing new products or services 4000 Any onshore wind Management Planning/development Site planning and development Lose business or orders to competitors Design/manufacture 2000 2000 0102030405060708090 5000 0102030405060 5000 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Planning/development 0 0% 20%40% 60%80% 100% 2000 % of employers % of employers % of employment Capacity 2013 Low % ofMe emdiplumoyers High 0 (Survey) 2023 2013 LowMediumHigh 0 0 0 (Survey) 2023 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 202120222023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202120222023 5.5 5.5 --- VERSION 2!!!!!

Renewables Skilled manual or technical jobs Skilled manual or technical jobs

Whole economy Technical professional jobs Technical professional jobs Renewables Job MW Contracted Job MW Management 10000 20000 Support and other Management Permanent 10000 20000 Support and other Contracted 10000 10000 Decommissioning Specialised transport Permanent 01020304050 EMPLOYMENT ACROSS LARGE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED VERSION ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH 8000 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 SCENARIO 8000 REVISED VERSION Specialised transport 8000 8000 Decommissioning 15000 % of female employment % of female employment 15000 FUTURE CAPACITY: LARGE ONSHORE Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 6000 6000 6000 6000 Construction/installation CHARTS - PROJECTIONS Construction/installation 10000 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS 10000 MW 4000 16000 DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT 4000 4000 Design/manufacture WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 Design/manufactureJobs MW DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS ACR4000OSS WIND AND MARINE WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 Indirect 10000 Support and other WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 20000 14000 ENERGY, 2013 Planning/development Planning/developm10000ent 20000 5000 Direct Decommissioning 2000 12000 5000 2000 Support and other 2000 Capacity charts_large onshore 8000 2000 Specialised transport Capacity 10000 8000 Decommissioning charts 2013 15000 15000 0 Operation/maintenance 0 High 8000 6000 Specialised transport 0 0 2013 2014 20152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 25% Site Planning or development 0 0Construction/installation 6000 36% Onshore: large Medium 27% Construction & Installation 15% Construction & Installation Operation/maintenance 2013 201420152016 2017201820192020 20212022 2023 6000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10000 11% Manufacture or manufacturing design 4000 9% Operation andDe masiingnte/mnancanufe acture 10000 5% Onshore: medium Low 16% Operation and maintenance Construction/installation 4000 4000 27% Construction & Installation 30% Other direct Planning/development 13% Onshore: small PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 57% Other direct Design/manufacture 16% Operation and maintenance 2000 2000 LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW REVISED VERSION 46% Indirect 5000 37% Offshore 5000 GROWTH SCENARIO Planning/development 18% Support services and other activities 0 2000 Low Capacity 9% Marine 1% Decommissioning 2013 Medium High 0 (Survey) 2023 2013 LowMediumHigh 0 0 0 2% Specialised Transport (Survey) 2023 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 202120222023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202120222023

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE TotalREVISED employment: VERSION 18,645 FTE REVISEDTotal employment: VERSION 34,373 FTE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 18,645 FTE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH 19 LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM SCENARIO Survey Results from mid-2013 LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH Survey Results from mid-2013 SCENARIO Survey Results from mid-2013 GROWTH SCENARIO Survey Results from mid-2013 GROWTH SCENARIO REVISED VERSION

10000 4.2 Medium-scale onshore DIFigureRECT EMPL 4.10:OYME DirectNT IN ME DIEmploymentUM in Medium-Scale Onshore Activities, 2013 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 Contwindracted 8000 Job MW Contracted Job PermMWanent Recent developments 10000 20000 Support and other Permanent 10000 20000 Support and other Contracted 10000 10000 Decommissioning 6000 Specialised transport Permanent 12000 The Medium-scale onshore wind sector 8000 8000 Specialised transport 8000 8000 Decommissioning 15000 62% England Marine 28covers15000% Site turbines Planning or betweendevelopment 100kW and 29% Site Planning or development 10000 Operation/maintenance 4% Wales Offshore 4000 10% Operation/maintenance 12% Manufacture or manufacturing design 6000 500kWMa nuinfa size.cture or It manufacturing is a relatively design new 6000 6000 6000 Onshore: small Construction/installation 21% Scotland 8000 20segment% Constr ofuc titheon &Co Inmarketstanstrllauctiontion and/insta currentlyllation 24% Construction & Installation 10000 Onshore: medium 10000 4% N.Ireland 4000 16accounts% Operat ioforn an justd ma in16MWtenance of installed 4000 15% Operation and maintenance 4000 Design/manufacture 2000 4000 Design/manufacture 6000 Onshore: large 9% Mobile 24%capacity.Suppo Althoughrt services and comparatively other activities small 17% Support services and other activities Planning/development Planning/development 5000 2000 2000 2000 Survey Results 1%in5000 scale,Deco mmithisssi segmentoning of the market is 1% Decommissioning Capacity 4000 2000 Capacity from mid-2013 0 1%expectedSpecia listoed grow Transp orveryt quickly, even 2% Specialised Transport 0 0 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021under the2022 least optimistic2023 assumptions. 0 0 2000 2013 2014 20152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 2013 201420152016 2017201820192020 20212022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Medium turbines are predominantly Total employment: 18,645 FTE 0 Total employment: 6,609 FTE Total employment: 838 FTE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM designed for the agricultural sector EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MEDIUM REVISED VERSION DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM Survey Results from mid-2013 England WalesScotlandN.Ireland Mobile Survey Results from mid-2013 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 Survey Results from mid-2013 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN and provide generation for on-site ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW REVISED VERSION GROWTH SCENARIO use. A typical unit is 30m to hub SCENARIO FUTURE CAPACITY: MEDIUM height and 37m to tip height. Common ONSHORE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE developments consist of a single Figure 4.11: Employment Across Medium Onshore Activities, 2013 and 2023 SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013 turbine, although more commercial MW developments (for export only) often 10000 comprise two or three turbines. Due 600 Support and other to the 100kW to 500kW Feed-in Tariff 10000 Job MW Indirect 10000 bracket, this segment of the market 8000 Decommissioning 10000 600 29% Site Planning or development 19% Site Planning or development 500 27%representsSite Planni nga valuableor development opportunity for the Direct Contracted 8000 Specialised transport 13% Manufacture or manufacturing design 8000 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design 19%windMa industry.nufacture or manufacturing design Support and other Permanent charts_medium onshore 6000 500 24% Construction & Installation High 8000 36% Construction & Installation 400 20% Construction & Installation Operation/maintenance Decommissioning 15% Operation and maintenance 6000 18% Operation and maintenance 16%CurrentOperatio employmentn and maintenance 6000 Medium Construction/installation 400 16% Support services and other activities 14% 4000 Specialised transport Support services and other activities 300 16% Support services and other activities 6000 Low 1% Decommissioning 4000 1% Decommissioning 1%FromDe cothemmis surveysioning it is estimated that Design/manufacture Operation/maintenance 4000 300 2% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 200 1%employmentSpecialised Tr inan spmedium-scaleort wind 2000 Planning/development Construction/installation 2000 stands at 838 FTE. Of these, almost 4000 200 a third of jobs are engaged in site 2000 Design/manufacture Total employment: 2,464 FTE Total employment: 6,830 FTE 100 Total employment: 1,724 FTE 0 planning or development activities and 0 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 2013 LowMediumHigh 2000 Planning/development 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 a further quarter in construction and (Survey) 2023 100 0 0 Capacity DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND installation. In this respect, the structure DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM 2013 LowMediumHigh AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 2013 20142015EMPLOY2016MENT ACRO2017SS MEDI2018UM 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 REVISED VERSION DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 of the medium-scale onshore wind ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 (Survey) 0 0 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 20212022 2023 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 sector resembles closely that of large- Figure 4.12: Direct Employment in Medium Onshore Activities, 2013 and 2023 SCENARIO MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED FUTURE CAPACITY: MEDIUM scale onshore wind. However, a larger ONSHORE proportion of jobs are in manufacturing PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM or manufacturing design and a lower ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO MW GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 60000 1000060000 proportion are in supporting services MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO 600 Wave Support and other than for the large-scale wind sector. 10000 Job MW 120000 50000 50000 Contracted ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH Offshore Indirect 8000 SCENARIO Decommissioning 10000 600 100000 Indirect 500 PeDirmrectanent charts-summaryprojections 40000 Small Onshore 40000 Future prospects 8000 Specialised transport Support and other Direct charts_medium onshore 500 80000 Medium Onshore 6000 30004000 High 8000 30000 Operation/maintenance Decommissioning Large Onshore Overview 6000 60000 Medium 400 Jobs MW 20000 4000 Construction/installation Specialised transport 300 20000 Jobs MW 6000 10000 Low 40000 10000 Design/manufacture Operation/maintenance 10000 600 Support and other 10000 Three scenarios have been modelled 100004000 600 300 200 200010000 Planning/developmeSunt pport and other Contracted 20000 with the following outcomes: 4000 Construction/installation Decommissioning 8000 0 Contracted 200 500 2000 Decommissioning Permanent 8000 2013 LowMediumHigh 8000 0 500 Design/manufacture 0 100 0 Permanent 8000 Specialised transport 2013 LowMediumHigh (Survey) 2023 20132013 LoLowMwMedediuiumH• Highigighh deployment scenario: 506MW 2000 Specialised transport 100 Planning/development (Survey) 2023 (Sur(Sveurvey) y) 20232023 400 0 capacity in 2023; 6,065 direct FTE; 0 400 6000 Capacity Operation/maintenance 6000 2013 LowMediumHigh 6000 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2,675 indirect FTE 6000 (Survey) Operation/maintenance 0 0 300 Construction/installation • Medium deployment scenario: 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 20212022 2023 300 Construction/installation 4000 4000 4000 Design/manufacture 4000 Design/manufacture 200 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 200 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH Planning/development MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN Planning/development 2000 MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM 2000 2000 Capacity DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM 2000GROWTH SCENARIO 100 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH 100 Capacity SCENARIO 0 0 0 0 0 0 201320142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20212022 2023 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192020202120222023 Jobs MW Jobs MW 10000 10000 10000 600 Support and other 10000 600 Support and other Contracted Decommissioning Contracted GROWTH SCENARIO 8000 500 8000 500 Decommissioning Permanent 8000 Permanent 8000 Specialised transport Specialised transport 400 400 6000 Operation/maintenance 6000 6000 6000 Operation/maintenance 300 Construction/installation 300 Construction/installation 4000 4000 4000 Design/manufacture 4000 Design/manufacture 200 200 Planning/development 2000 Planning/development 2000 2000 Capacity 10000 2000 100 100 Capacity

0 0 0 0 0 0 201320142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20212022 2023 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 8000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192020202120222023

Contracted GROWTH SCENARIO 6000 Permanent

4000

10000 2000

8000 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Contracted 6000 Permanent

4000

2000

0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20

369MW capacity in 2023; 4,478 direct FTE, 1,901 indirect FTE • Low deployment scenario: 122MW capacity in 2023; 1,451 direct FTE, 502 indirect FTE

The number of direct jobs increases in each scenario, with the majority of the increase occurring among those in operation and maintenance and business support services. The very large increases in capacity in each of the scenarios offers the opportunity for significant gains in efficiency of manufacture and operations as the sector matures. The number of jobs in manufacturing, construction and installation, and planning and development are determined by the profile for new capacity being installed. In the low-deployment scenario, with very little change in installed capacity after 2015, the number of people employed in these activities drops sharply.

For medium onshore wind, all employment relates to UK deployment of this technology: there is no presumption that the UK is able to extend its reach overseas in terms of manufactured components for export. EMPLOYMENT ACROSS LARGE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED VERSION ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 SCENARIO REVISED VERSION

FUTURE CAPACITY: LARGE ONSHORE

MW 16000 Jobs EMPLOYMENT ACROSS LARGE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE MW ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED VERSION ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH Indirect 10000 Support and other ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 SCENARIO 14000 20000 REVISED VERSION 10000 20000 Direct Decommissioning FUTURE CAPACITY: LARGE ONSHORE 12000 Support and other charts_large onshore 8000 Specialised transport 10000 8000 Decommissioning 15000 15000 Operation/maintenance High 8000 6000 Specialised transport MW 16000 Jobs Construction/installation 6000 MW Medium Operation/maintenance Indirect 10000 Support and other 6000 20000 14000 10000 4000 Design/manufacture 10000 10000 20000 Low Construction/installation Direct Decommissioning 4000 4000 12000 Support and other

charts_large onshore Planning/development 8000 Design/manufacture Specialised transport 2000 2000 10000 8000 Decommissioning 5000 15000 5000 15000 Planning/development Operation/maintenance 0 2000 High 8000 6000 Specialised transport Low Capacity Construction/installation 6000 2013 Medium High 0 Medium 6000 Operation/maintenance (Survey) 2023 2013 LowMediumHigh 10000 0 0 10000 4000 Design/manufacture 0 (Survey) 2023 Low Construction/installation 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 202120222023 4000 4000 Planning/development 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202120222023 Design/manufacture 2000 2000 5000 5000 Planning/development DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE 0 2000 REVISED VERSION REVISED VERSION ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM SCENARIO LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH Capacity 2013 Low Medium High 0 SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO (Survey) 2023 2013 LowMediumHigh GROWTH SCENARIO 0 REVISED0 VERSION 0 (Survey) 2023 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 202120222023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202120222023

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE REVISED VERSION REVISED VERSION ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM SCENARIO LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO REVISED VERSION Job MW Contracted Job MW 10000 20000 Support and other Permanent 10000 20000 Support and other Contracted 10000 10000 Decommissioning Specialised transport Permanent 8000 8000 Specialised transport 8000 8000 Decommissioning 15000 15000 Job MW Operation/maintenance Contracted Job Operation/maintenance 6000 MW 6000 10006000 0 20000 Support and other 6000 Permanent 10000 20000 Support and other Contracted 10000 10000 Construction/installation 10000 Construction/installation Decommissioning Specialised transport Permanent 10000 4000 Design/manufacture 80004000 Design/manufacture 4000 8000 Specialised transport 4000 8000 8000 Decommissioning 15000 15000 Planning/development Operation/maintenance Planning/development 5000 Operation/maintenance 60002000 5000 2000 2000 6000 Capacity 6000 6000 2000 Capacity Construction/installation 10000 Construction/installation 10000 0 0 4000 4000 4000 Design/manufacture 0 0 4000 Design/manufacture 2013 2014 20152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 2013 201420152016 2017201820192020 20212022 2023 Planning/development Planning/development 5000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2000 5000 2000 2000 Capacity 2000 Capacity PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 0 0 LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW REVISED VERSION 0 GROWTH SCENARIO 0 2013 2014 20152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 2013 201420152016 2017201820192020 20212022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW REVISED VERSION GROWTH SCENARIO

10000

Contracted 8000 Permanent 10000 6000 Contracted 8000 Permanent 4000 6000

2000 4000

0 2000 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

0 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MEDIUM REVISED VERSION DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH 21 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM SCENARIO EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MEDIUM REVISED VERSION DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 FUTURE CAPACITY: MEDIUM ONSHORONE ACTSHORIVEITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO FUTURE CAPACITY: MEDIUM High deployment scenario for FigureMW 4.13: Direct Employment in Medium Onshore Activities, High Growth Scenario ONSHORE 10000 medium-scale onshore wind 600 Support and other (506MW capacity in 2023; 6,065 10000 Job MW MW Indirect 10000 8000 Decommissioning 10000 600 direct FTE) 500 600 Support and other Job Direct 10000 MW 8000 Specialised transport Support and other

Indirect charts_medium onshore 8000 Decommissioning 10000 600 6000 500 High 8000 500 Direct This scenario is based on this sector 400 Operation/maintenance Decommissioning 8000 receiving strongSp ecandialis edconsistent transport policy Support and other 6000 charts_medium onshore 6000 500 Medium Construction/installation 400 High 8000 4000 Specialised transport 400 support, includingOperat financialion/maintenanc supporte 300 Decommissioning 6000 Low 6000 Design/manufacture Medium from the small-scale Feed-In Tariff 400 4000 Operation/maintenance 4000 Construction/installation Specialised transport 300 300 6000 200 2000 Planning/development Low and appropriate planning policy. 4000 Construction/installation Design/manufacture Operation/maintenance 4000 Such support allows the cost of this 300 200 200 2000 Planning/development 2000 Design/manufacture technology to fall substantially due to 4000 100 Construction/installation 0 200 2013 LowMediumHigh 2000 Planning/development 2000 Design/manufacture (Survey) 100 100 economies of scale and learning effects. 2023 0 0 0 Capacity 2013 LowMediumHigh 2000 Planning/development LowMediumHigh (Survey) Capacity rises from its current level of 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020100 2021 2022 2023 2013 2023 (Survey) 0 0 0 0 just 16 MW to 506MW in 2023. The rate Capacity 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 20212022 2023 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (Survey) of increase is relatively steady over the 0 0 period, at about 50–55MW pa. 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 20212022 2023 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN The steady growth in installed capacity DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH GROWTH SCENARIO MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM to 2023 means that the number of Figure 4.14: Permanent and Contracted Jobs in Medium Onshore Activities, High ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH jobs in planning and development and Growth Scenario SCENARIO construction remain at or around their current levels over the period. The Jobs MW pace at which additional capacity is Jobs MW 10000 Jobs MW Jobs MW 10000 10000 10000 600 Support and other installed also influences demand for 10000 600 10000 10000 600 Support and other Support and other Contracted 10000 600 capital equipment manufacturers and Decommissioning Support and other Contracted Contracted 8000 500 8000 Decommissioning Decommissioning Permanent 8000 Contracted 8000 those designing new systems. It is not 500 500 8000 500 Decommissioning Permanent 8000 Permanent 8000 Specialised transport 8000 Specialised transport Permanent thought likely that UK manufactures Specialised transport 400 Specialised transport 6000 Operation/maintenance 400 400 6000 400 6000 will be able to secure a notable share 6000 Operation/maintenance 6000 6000 6000 Operation/maintenance 6000 Operation/maintenance of the global market for medium-scale 300 Construction/installation 300 Construction/installation 300 Construction/installation 300 Construction/installation wind technologies. Given this, the 4000 4000 Design/manufacture 4000 40040000 4000 Design/manufacture 4000 200 4000 200 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture relatively steady pace by which new 200 Planning/development 200 Planning/development capacity is introduced does not offer 2000 Planning/development 2000 2000 2000 Planning/development 2000 2000 Capacity 100 Capacity 2000 100 2000 100 Capacity much opportunity for higher employment 100 Capacity

among capital equipment manufacturers 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 201320142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20212022 2023 0 0 201320142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20212022 2023 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 in the long-term. 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192020202120222023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192020202120222023

In sharp contrast, there is strong growth in the number of jobs in operations and GROWTH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO maintenance and other business support functions. By 2023 as many as 2,756 FTE could be engaged in operations and maintenance, and a further 2,068 in supporting roles. 10000 10000

8000 8000

Contracted 6000 Contracted Permanent 6000 Permanent 4000 4000

2000 2000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 EMPLOYMENT ACROSS LARGE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED VERSION ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 SCENARIO REVISED VERSION

FUTURE CAPACITY: LARGE ONSHORE

MW 16000 Jobs MW Indirect 10000 Support and other 14000 20000 10000 20000 Direct Decommissioning 12000 Support and other charts_large onshore 8000 Specialised transport 10000 8000 Decommissioning 15000 15000 Operation/maintenance High 8000 6000 Specialised transport Construction/installation 6000 Medium 6000 Operation/maintenance 10000 4000 Design/manufacture 10000 Low Construction/installation 4000 4000 Planning/development Design/manufacture 2000 2000 5000 5000 Planning/development 0 2000 Capacity 2013 Low Medium High 0 (Survey) 2023 2013 LowMediumHigh 0 0 0 (Survey) 2023 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 202120222023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202120222023

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH REVISED VERSION LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM REVISED VERSION ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH EMPLOYMENT ACROSS LARGE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE SCENARIO LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH ONSHORE ACTIVITISCES, EN2013ARI ANDO 2023 REVISED VERSION ONSHORE ACTIVITIES,GR HIOWTHGH GROWTH SCEN ARIO GRONOWTHSHORE ACT SCIVEITIENARS, 2013IO AND 2023 SCENARIO REVISED VERSION REVISED VERSION FUTURE CAPACITY: LARGE ONSHORE

MW 16000 Jobs MW Indirect 10000 Support and other Job MW 20000 14000 Contracted Job MW 10000 20000 10000 20000 Support and other Direct DecoSummispporsiton anding other Contracted 12000 Permanent 10000 20000 10000 Support and other charts_large onshore 10000 8000 Decommissioning SpecSpialisecedialis tredansp transortport Permanent 10000 8000 Decommissioning 15000 15000 8000 8000 Specialised transport 8000 8000 OperatDeiocon/mmimainssiteonnancinge 15000 High 8000 6000 15000 Specialised transport Construction/installation 6000 Operation/maintenance Medium Operation/maintenance 6000 60060000 6000 Operation/maintenance 6000 10000 10000 4000 Design/manufacture 10000 Construction/installation Low Construction/installation Construction/installation 4000 10000 4000 4000 Planning/development 4000 4000 Design/manufacture 4000 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture 2000 2000 5000 5000 Planning/development Planning/development 2000 Planning/development 5000 2000 0 5000 2000 2000 Capacity 2000 Capacity Capacity 2013 Low Medium High 0 (Survey) 2023 2013 LowMediumHigh 0 0 0 0 0 (Survey) 2023 0 0 2013 2014 20152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 2013 201320142012014520162201501722016018201920172020 20220181202201922023 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202120222023 2013 201420152016 2017201820192020 20212022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN REVISED VERSION REVISED VERSION ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM SCENARIO LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW REVISED VERSION GROSCWTHEN SCARIENARIOO GROWTH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO REVISED VERSION

Job MW Contracted Job MW 10000 20000 Support and other Permanent 10000 20000 Support and other Contracted 10000 10000 10000 Decommissioning Specialised transport Permanent 8000 8000 Specialised transport 8000 8000 Contracted Decommissioning 15000 8000 15000 Permanent Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 6000 6000 6000 6000 6000 Construction/installation 10000 Construction/installation 10000 4000 4000 4000 Design/manufacture 4000 Design/manufacture 4000 Planning/development Planning/development 5000 2000 5000 2000 2000 Capacity 2000 Capacity 2000 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 20152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 2013 201420152016 2017201820192020 20212022 2023 20130 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW REVISED VERSION DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MEDIUM REVISED VERSION DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO FUTURE CAPACITY: MEDIUM ONSHORE

MW 10000

600 Support and other 10000 Job MW 10000 Indirect 8000 Decommissioning 10000 600 500 Direct 8000 Contracted Specialised transport Support and other 8000 charts_medium onshore 6000 500 Permanent High 8000 400 Operation/maintenance Decommissioning 6000 Medium 400 6000 4000 Construction/installation Specialised transport 300 6000 Low Design/manufacture Operation/maintenance 4000 300 4000 200 2000 Planning/development 4000 Construction/installation 200 2000 Design/manufacture 2000 100 0 2013 LowMediumHigh 2000 Planning/development (Survey) 2023 100 0 0 Capacity 0 LowMediumHigh 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (Survey) 0 0 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 20212022 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM 22 EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MEDIUM REVISED VERSION DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM SCENARIO ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN FUTURE CAPACITY: MEDIUM MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO ONSHORE Medium deployment scenario FigureONSH 4.15:ORE AC DirectTIVITI EmploymentES, MEDIUM GR inOWTH Medium Onshore Activities, Medium Growth for medium-scale onshore wind Scenario SCENARIO MW 10000 (369MW capacity in 2023; 4,478 600 direct FTE, 1,901 indirect FTE) Support and other Job 10000 MW Jobs MW Indirect Jobs MW 10000 8000 Decommissioning 10000 600 500 10000 10000 600 Support and other Direct 10000 600 For the medium deployment scenario, 8000 SpSuecpporialisted and tr anotspherort Contracted Support and other charts_medium onshore Decommissioning 6000 Contracted 8000 500 High medium-scale onshore wind capacity 8000 500 400 8000 500 OpDeeratcommiion/ssimaoninteinnancg e Permanent Decommissioning 8000 8000 Specialised transport Permanent increases to 369MW in 2023. This 6000 Medium Specialised transport 400 4000 Construction/installation Specialised transport 400 300 is some 30% lower than in the high 400 6000 6000 Operation/maintenance Low 6000 6000 6000 DeOpsieratgn/mion/anufmaacintetunreance Operation/maintenance deployment scenario. In the short term 4000 300 300 Construction/installation 200 2000 300 the increase in capacity is broadly similar PlCoanninsngtruc/dtievonel/iopnstamellatntion Construction/installation 4000 4000 4000 4000 Design/manufacture 4000 200 200 to that in the high deployment scenario, 2000 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture 100 200 Planning/development 0 but the pace of change slows sharply 2000 2013 LowMediumHigh Planning/development 2000 2000 Planning/development 2000 Capacity (Survey) 2023 2000 100 100 0 after 2015, to average just 30 MW pa. 0 100 Capacity Capacity LowMediumHigh 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 Therefore, somewhere close to twice (Survey) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 201320142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20212022 2023 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 the2020 level of2021 current2022 installed2023 capacity is 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 20212022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192020202120222023 being added every year in this scenario.

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH The slowdown in the scale of additional PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM capacity from 2015 means that the FigureGROWTH 4.16: SCENAR IOPermanent and Contracted Jobs in Medium Onshore Activities, Medium ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH Growth Scenario SCENARIO number of jobs in activities related to new build drops at this point, but then remains stable. In 2023 there are projected to be 236 jobs in construction Jobs MW Jobs MW 10000 10000 10000 10000 600 Support and other 10000 and600 installation (compared to 196 Support and other Contracted currently) and slightly fewer in planning Decommissioning Contracted 8000 500 8000 8000 and500 development.Decommi ssioning Permanent 8000 Permanent 8000 Specialised transport Specialised transport 400 400 Contracted 6000 Operation/maintenance 6000 6000 6000 6000 With the stillOp substantialeration/mainten ancincreasee in additionalPermanent capacity over the period, the 300 Construction/installation 300 Construction/installation 4000 4000 4000 Design/manufacture 40004000 main area of jobs growth is expected Design/manufacture 200 to20 0be in operations and maintenance Planning/development 2000 Planning/development 2000 2000 Capacity 2000 and other business support activities. 100 2000 100 Capacity By 2023 employment in these job 0 0 0 roles could reach 2,079 and 1,546 FTE 0 0 0 201320142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20212022 2023 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 respectively. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192020202120222023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

As Figure 4.16 clearly shows, these GROWTH SCENARIO more permanent jobs related to the running of the facilities, rather than the more short-term jobs related to planning and construction, will soon make up the majority of the sector’s employment. 10000

8000

Contracted 6000 Permanent

4000

2000

FUTURE CAPACITY: LARGE ONSHORE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS LARGE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED VERSION ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 SCENARIO REVISED VERSION

FUTURE CAPACITY: LARGE ONSHORE MW 16000 Jobs MW Indirect 10000 Support and other 14000 20000 10000 20000 Direct Decommissioning 12000 MW Support and other 16000 charts_large onshore 8000 Jobs MW Specialised transport Indirect 10000 Support and other 10000 800020000 Decommissioning 14000 15000 15000 10000 20000 Operation/maintenance Direct Decommissioning High 8000 6000 Specialised transport 12000 Support and other charts_large onshore 8000 Construction/installation 6000 Specialised transport Medium 6000 Operation/maintenance 10000 8000 Decommissioning 15000 15000 10000 4000 Design/manufacture 10000 Operation/maintenance Low ConstructionHi/ighnstallation 8000 6000 Specialised transport 4000 4000 Planning/development Construction/installation 6000 Design/manufMeacdiumture 6000 Operation/maintenance 2000 2000 10000 10000 5000 4000 Design/manufacture 5000 Planning/devLoelwopment Construction/installation 0 2000 4000 4000 Planning/development Low Medium High Capacity Design/manufacture 2013 0 2000 2000 (Survey) 2023 2013 LowMediumHigh 5000 5000 0 0 Planning/development 0 (Survey) 2023 0 2000 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 202120222023 Capacity 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202120222023 2013 Low Medium High 0 (Survey) 2023 2013 LowMediumHigh 0 0 0 (Survey) 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 202120222023 REVISED VERSION REVISED VERSION ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM 2013SCENARIO2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202120222023 LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO REVISED VERSION DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE REVISED VERSION REVISED VERSION ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM SCENARIO LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO REVISED VERSION

Job MW Contracted Job MW 10000 20000 Support and other Support and other Contracted Permanent 10000 20000 10000 10000 Job MW Permanent Contracted Decommissioning Job MW Specialised transport 10000 20000 Support and other 8000 Support and other Contracted Permanent 10000 20000 10000 8000 8000 8000 10000 15000 Specialised transport Decommissioning Decommissioning 15000 Specialised transport Permanent Operation/maintenance 8000 Operation/maintenance 6000 6000 8000 8000 8000 15000 Specialised transport 6000 6000 Decommissioning Construction/installation 15000 Construction/installation 10000 Operation/maintenance 10000 Operation/maintenance 6000 6000 6000 4000 4000 4000 Design/manufacture 6000 4000 Design/manufacture Construction/installation 10000 Construction/installation Planning/development 10000 Planning/development 4000 Design/manufacture 4000 5000 Design/manufacture 4000 2000 5000 2000 2000 Capacity 4000 2000 Capacity Planning/development Planning/development 5000 2000 5000 2000 2000 0 0 Capacity 0 0 2000 Capacity 2013 2014 20152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 2013 201420152016 2017201820192020 20212022 2023 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 2013 2014 20152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 2013 201420152016 2017201820192020 20212022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW REVISED VERSION GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN LARGE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW REVISED VERSION GROWTH SCENARIO

10000 10000 Contracted 8000 Permanent Contracted 8000 Permanent 6000 6000

4000 4000

2000 2000

0 0 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MEDIUM REVISED VERSION DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MEDIUM REVISED VERSION DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO FUTURE CAPACITY: MEDIUM FUTURE CAPACITY: MEDIUM ONSHORE ONSHORE

MW MW 10000 10000

600 Support and other Job600 Support and other 10000 MW 10000 Job MW 8000 Indirect Indirect Decommissioning 10000 600 8000 Decommissioning 10000 600 500 Direct 500 Direct 8000 8000 Specialised transport Support and other Specialised transport Support and other charts_medium onshore charts_medium onshore 6000 500 6000 500 High 8000 400 High 8000 400 Operation/maintenance Decommissioning Operation/maintenance Decommissioning 6000 6000 Medium 400 Medium Construction/installation 400 4000 Construction/installation Specialised transport 4000 Specialised transport 300 300 6000 6000 Low Low Design/manufacture Design/manufacture Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 4000 300 4000 300 200 2000 200 2000 Planning/development Planning/development Construction/installation 4000 Construction/installation 4000 200 200 2000 2000 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture 100 100 0 0 2013 LowMediumHigh 2000 2013 LowMediumHigh 2000 100 Planning/development 100 Planning/development (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 0 0 0 Capacity 0 Capacity 2013 LowMediumHigh LowMediumHigh 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 (Survey) 0 0 (Survey) 0 0 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 20212022 2023 23 2013 201420152016201720182019 2020 20212022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO ONSHORE ACTIVITIEGRS,OWTH LOW GR SCOWTHENAR IO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN GROWTH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO MEDIUM ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO Low deployment scenario for Figure 4.17: Direct Employment in Medium Onshore Activities, Low Growth Scenario ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO medium-scale onshore wind (122MW capacity in 2023; 1,451 direct FTE, 502 indirect FTE) Jobs MW Jobs MW 10000 Jobs MW Jobs 10000 10000 10000 600 Support and other MW 10000 600 10000 In this scenario capacity increases from 10000 600 Support and other Support and other Contracted 10000 600 Decommissioning Support and other Co16MWntracted currently to 122MW in 2023. Contracted 8000 500 8000 Decommissioning 500 Decommissioning Permanent 8000 Contracted 8000 Permanent 500 8000 Specialised transport Decommissioning PeAlthoughrmanent this is substantial growth, 8000 8000 500 Specialised transport Permanent 8000 Specialised transport 400 capacity in 2023 is just a third of that in 400 6000 Operation/maintenance Specialised transport 6000 6000 400 Operation/maintenance 400 6000 Operation/maintenance 6000 6000 the medium deployment scenario and a 6000 300 Construction/installation 6000 Operation/maintenance quarter of than in the high deployment 300 Construction/installation 4000 300 Construction/installation 4000 4000 Design/manufacture 300 4000 Construction/installation scenario. The scenario sees relatively Design/manufacture 200 4000 4000 4000 Design/manufacture 200 4000 Planning/development Design/manufacture strong increases in capacity for the first 200 Planning/development 200 2000 2000 2000 Capacity Planning/development 2000 100 few years (20–30MW pa), with a sharp 100 Capacity 2000 Planning/development 2000 2000 Capacity 2000 100 100 Capacity slowdown thereafter and very little 0 0 0 0 additional capacity added annually after 0 0 201320142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20212022 2023 0 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192020202120222023 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 2017. This can be viewed as a scenario 201320142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20212022 2023 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192020202120222023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 in which the industry works through the permissions that it already has but the GROWTH SCENARIO planning system will not accommodate Figure 4.18: Permanent and Contracted Jobs in Medium Onshore Activities, Low GROWTH SCENARIO any further development. Growth Scenario

The effect of no further capacity being added at the end of the period, rather 10000 than just a slow-down in the increase 10000 seen in the more optimistic scenarios, is to accentuate the underlying trends in 8000 the other scenarios. 8000 Contracted 6000 Permanent Contracted In this scenario, the number of jobs 6000 Permanent in construction and installation and 4000 planning and development initially rise, 4000 alongside the rising level of capacity 2000 installed each year. However, as 2000 additional capacity falls back and all 0 but ceases, there is no call for these 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

0 early-stage activities and employment 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 drops sharply. Manufacturing activity in the form of constructing the capital equipment similarly disappears.

The number of jobs in operation and maintenance and business support initially rises in this scenario, but there is little prospect of growth in the long term without further increases in overall installed capacity.

CHARTS - SKILLS

Figure 5.1: Distribution of Employers by Technology Sector (%) Figure 5.2: Distribution of Employers by Activity (%) Figure 5.3: Occupational Structure of Employment 5.4

None of these

5.5 5.5 --- VERSION 2!!!!!

Semi-skilled or operative job Semi -skilled or operative job Whole economy

Renewables Skilled manual or technical jobs Skilled manual or technical jobs

Whole economy Technical professional jobs Technical professional jobs Renewables

Management Management

01020304050 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40

% of female employment % of female employment

9% Marine 1% Decommissioning

2% Specialised Transport

12000

Survey Results 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 4000 from mid-2013 1% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 2000

Total employment: 18,645 FTE 24 0 Total employment: 6,609 FTE Total employment: 838 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 England WalesScotlandN.Ireland Mobile Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013

4.3 Small-scale onshore wind DIREFigureCT EMPL 4.19:OYME DirectNT IN SMA EmploymentLL in Small-Scale Onshore Activities, 2013 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013 Recent developments

The Feed-in Tariff scheme was introduced in 2010 and has proved to be a significant stimulus for growth in the 29% Site Planning or development 19% Site Planning or development 27% Site Planning or development

small-scale wind sector (which consists 13% Manufacture or manufacturing design 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design 19% Manufacture or manufacturing design

of turbines of less than 100kW in size). 24% Construction & Installation 36% Construction & Installation 20% Construction & Installation

At present, it is estimated that there is 15% Operation and maintenance 18% Operation and maintenance 16% Operation and maintenance

86MW of installed capacity in the UK, 16% Support services and other activities 14% Support services and other activities 16% Support services and other activities

some five times more than is currently 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning

provided by medium-scale schemes. 2% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 1% Specialised Transport DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH An amendment to the Town and ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 FUTURE CAPACITY: SMALL Country Planning (General Permitted EMPLOYMENT ACROSS SMALL Total employment: 2,464 FTE Total employment: 6,830 FTE Total employment: 1,724 FTE SCENARIO Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 ONSHORE Development) (Amendment) (England) ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023

Order 2011 saw the addition of DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND small wind turbines under permitted AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 development. In principle this should Figure 4.20: EmploymentEMPL AcrossOY SmallMENT Onshore ACROSS Activities, WIND A ND2013 and 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED MW have made it easier for domestic users 10000 to install small wind turbines. However, Support and other Job MW Support and other 1000 the unrealistic size restrictions imposed 16000 Decommissioning Decommissioning in the permitted development criteria 60000 60000 10000 1000 8000 14000 Wave charts_small onshore have unfortunately meant that the Specialised transport 900 Specialised transport 800 120000 Indirect 50000 50000 Contracted amendment has had no impact on 12000 Offshore 8000 800 High 100000 Indirect PermOpanenteration/maintenance deployment. Despite this, rejection charts-summaryprojections Direct 40000 6000 Small Onshore 40000 Operation/maintenance 10000 Direct 700 rates for small-scaleMe winddium schemes are 80000 Medium Onshore 600 30000 Construction/installation 30000 Construction/installation running at less than 15%. Alongside 8000 Large Onshore 6000 600 Low 60000 4000 advantageous Feed-in Tariff rates, this 20000 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture 6000 20000 500 400 has resulted in an increased deployment 40000 10000 Planning/development 10000 4000 400 Planning/development of small wind turbines over the last two 200004000 2000 0 300 Capacity years. Nevertheless, predictions for the 0 200 20000 2013 LowMediumHigh future of the small-scale market are 2013 LowMediumHigh (Survey) 2023 2013 2000 200 0 LowMediumHigh made difficult by the decrease in Feed-in 0 (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013 LowMediumHigh 100 0 Tariff support since December 2012. (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 0 0 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023This has the potential to harm future employment rates in the sector, and will 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920202021 2022 2023 need to be closely monitored.

Current employment DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN From the survey it is estimated SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH that the small-scale onshore wind SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO sector employs 2,464 FTE directly, a four-fold increase from 590 FTEs in 2010. Of these, almost a third of jobs are engaged in site planning or development activities, and a further Job MW quarter in construction and installation. Job MW Contracted 10000 1000 Similar numbers are employed in Support and other Support and other 10000 10000 1000 Permanent each of operation and maintenance, 900 10000 Decommissioning 900 Decommissioning manufacturing or manufacturing design, 8000 800 Contracted and supporting services. The proportion 8000 8000 800 Specialised transport 700 Specialised transport 8000 of manufacturing roles is relatively higher Permanent 700 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance than for large-scale onshore wind owing 6000 6000 600 6000 to a greater emphasis on indigenous 500 Construction/installation 500 Construction/installation manufacturing in this technology. 4000 400 Design/manufacture 4000 4000 400 Design/manufacture 4000 300 300 Planning/development Planning/development 2000 200 2000 2000 200 2000 Capacity Capacity 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

10000

8000 Contracted

Permanent 6000

4000

2000

0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE FUTURE CAPACITY: OFFSHORE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO

30000 50000 25000 Support and other Job MW Support and other Decommissioning 25000 25000 30000 Decommissioning charts_offshore 40000 Indirect 20000 High Specialised transport Specialised transport 25000 20000 Direct 20000 Medium 30000 15000 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 20000 15000 Low Construction/installation 15000 Construction/installation 20000 10000 Design/manufacture 15000 Design/manufacture 10000 10000 10000 5000 Planning/development Planning/development 10000 5000 Capacity 0 0 5000 2013 5000 0 2013 LowMediumHigh LowMediumHigh (Survey) 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (Survey) 2023 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019202020212022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

Job MW Support and other Job MW 25000 30000 Decommissioning 25000 25000 30000 25000 Specialised transport Contracted Contracted 25000 Support and other 20000 20000 Permanent 25000 20000 Operation/maintenance 20000 Decommissioning Permanent 20000 Construction/installation 20000 15000 Specialised transport 15000 15000 15000 Design/manufacture Operation/maintenance 15000 15000 10000 10000 10000 Planning/development Construction/installation 10000 10000 10000 Capacity Design/manufacture 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 Planning/development 0 Capacity 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015201620172018 2019202020212022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

25000 Contracted 20000 Permanent

15000

10000

5000

0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO FUTURE CAPACITY: MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023

10000 Job MW charts_marine 1000 High 25000 Support and other 10000 1000 Support and other Medium 8000 Decommissioning 800 Indirect 20000 8000 800 Decommissioning Low Specialised transport Direct 6000 Specialised transport 600 Operation/maintenance 15000 6000 600 Operation/maintenance 4000 Construction/installation Construction/installation 400 10000 Design/manufacture 4000 400 2000 Design/manufacture Planning/development 200 5000 2000 200 Planning/development 0 Capacity 2013 LowMediumHigh 0 0 0 0 (Survey) 2023 2013201420152016 2017 2018201920202021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 LowMediumHigh (Survey) 2023

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL MARINE ACTIVITIES, HIGH MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

Job MW Job MW

0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 20132014 20152016 201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

10000

8000 Contracted

Permanent 6000

4000

2000

0 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 25

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 SCENARIO FUTURE CAPACITY: SMALL EMPLOYMENT ACROSS SMALL Future prospects Figure 4.21: Direct Employment in Small Onshore Activities, 2013 and 2023 ONSHORE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023

Overview

MW Three scenarios have been modelled, 10000 with the following outcomes: Support and other Job MW Support and other 1000 16000 Decommissioning 10000 1000 Decommissioning 14000 8000 charts_small onshore • High deployment scenario: 821 MW Specialised transport 900 Specialised transport 800 Indirect 12000 High capacity in 2023; 8,408 direct FTE; Operation/maintenance 8000 800 Direct 6000 Operation/maintenance 10000 4,955 indirect FTE Medium 700 600 Construction/installation Construction/installation 8000 • Medium deployment scenario: 370 6000 600 Low 4000 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture 6000 MW capacity in 2023; 4,326 direct 500 400 FTE; 2,304 indirect FTE Planning/development 4000 400 Planning/development 4000 2000 • Low deployment scenario: 232 MW 300 Capacity 200 2000 capacity in 2023; 2,240 direct FTE; 2000 200 0 0 2013 LowMediumHigh 962 indirect FTE 2013 LowMediumHigh 100 0 (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 0 0 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 The three scenarios cover a wide range 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920202021 2022 2023 of potential employment outcomes, with direct employment increasing by opportunities are substantial, at almost 6,000 FTEs by 2023 in the high- more than twice the size of total DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN deployment scenario, compared to a SMALUKL ON deploymentSHORE ACTIVI inTI 2023ES, ME (aroundDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO modest fall in employment in the low 2,000MW). SCENARIO deployment scenario even though the • In the medium scenario, the UK amount of installed capacity increases is able to supply the equivalent of greatly. In this way, the sector’s 1,600MW of components, roughly Job MWprospects are similar to those of the four times the UK deployment in Job MW Contracted 10000 1000 large-scale onshore wind sector. 2023. Support and other Support and other 10000 1000 Permanent 900 •1000 0In the low scenario, the UK supplies 10000 Decommissioning 900 Decommissioning 8000 800 The modest fall in direct employment in components to support the overseas 8000 Contracted 8000 800 Specialised transport 700 the low-deploymentSpecialised transp scenarioort is due to deployment of around 500MW (just 8000 Permanent 700 6000 600 the sharpOp falleratio inn/ maemploymentintenance in activities over twice the UK deployment in Operation/maintenance 6000 6000 600 6000 500 at the startCons oftruc ati onscheme’s/installation lifecycle 2023). 500 Construction/installation 4000 400 such as planning and development as Design/manufacture 4000 4000 400 Design/manufacture 4000 300 a result of what is effectively a halt in 300 Planning/development Planning/development 2000 200 new capacity being commissioned. The 2000 2000 200 2000 Capacity Capacity 100 medium and high deployment scenarios 100 0 0 0 0 both assume a steady increase in new 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 capacity throughout the period and this supports jobs in construction, planning and the manufacture of equipment.

In all three scenarios the number of jobs PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW associated with the running of sites GROWTH SCENARIO and associated business activities rises sharply.

In addition to the growth in UK deployment, the scenarios also 10000 incorporate alternative trajectories for export opportunities to the rest of the 8000 world. These opportunities generate Contracted additional sales for the manufacturing Permanent 6000 sector, in addition to the role it plays in delivering new capacity in the UK itself. 4000 • In the high scenario, the export

2000

0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE FUTURE CAPACITY: OFFSHORE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

25000 Contracted 20000 Permanent

15000

10000

5000

0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO FUTURE CAPACITY: MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023

Job MW Job MW

0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 20132014 20152016 201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

10000

8000 Contracted

Permanent 6000

4000

2000

0 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 FUTURE CAPACITY: SMALL EMPLOYMENT ACROSS SMALL SCENARIO ONSHORE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023

26 MW 10000 Support and other DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL Job MW Support and other 1000 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH 16000 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 Decommissioning Decommissioning FUTURE CAPACITY: SMALL SCENARIO 10000 1000 EMPLOYMENT ACROSS SMALL 8000 ONSHORE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 High deployment scenario for Figure 4.22: Direct Employment in Small Onshore Activities, High Growth Scenario 14000 charts_small onshore Specialised transport 900 Specialised transport 800 Indirect small-scale onshore wind (821MW 12000 High Operation/maintenance 8000 800 capacity in 2023; 8,408 direct FTE) Direct 6000 Operation/maintenance 10000 Medium 700 600 Construction/installation Construction/installation MW 8000 10000 6000 600 This scenario seesSuppor capacityt and othe rincrease Job MW Support and other Low 4000 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture 1000 16000 500 from the currentDe levelcommi ofss io86ning MW to 821 6000 10000400 1000 Decommissioning 14000 8000 MW in 2023. It is based on the small- Planning/development 4000 400 Planning/development charts_small onshore Specialised transport 900 Specialised transport 4000 2000 800 Indirect 12000 scale wind sector receiving strong policy 300 Capacity High Operation/maintenance 8000 800 2000 Direct 6000 support through effective planning and 200 Operation/maintenance 10000 2000 200 Medium 700 600 the small-scale CoFIT.nstr Thisuction /iallowsnstallation many Construction/installation 0 0 8000 6000 600 LowMediumHigh 2013 LowMediumHigh Low 4000 2013 100 individuals and smallDesign/m businessesanufacture to 0 Design/manufacture (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 6000 500 400 benefit from owning such devices, which 0 0 Planning/development 40002013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020400 2021 Planni2022ng/dev2023elopment 4000 2000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920202021 2022 2023 further increases demand for turbines 300 Capacity 200 2000 through a virtuous cycle. 2000 200 0 0 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013 LowMediumHigh 100 0 (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 The growth in capacity is faster over 0 0 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN the first half of the period, when annual PERMANE2013NT2014 AND2015 CONT2016RAC2017TE2018D JO201BS92 IN02 02021 2022 2023 SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH increases average 80–90MW (equivalent SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO to current capacity). The pace of increase then slows after 2017 to about Figure 4.23: Permanent and Contracted Jobs in Small Onshore Activities, High Growth DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM ScenarioDIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH half this rate in this scenario. ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO Job MW Employment in the sector is expected to Job MW Contracted 10000 1000 peak in 2017 at 8,649 FTE before falling Support and other Support and other 10000 10000 1000 back as the rate of new capacity slows Permanent 900 Job MW 10000 Decommissioning 900 Decommissioning and recovering slightly again towards the Job MW 8000 800 Contracted 10000 1000 Contracted 8000 800 Support and other Support and other Specialised transport 8000 Specialised transport 10000 end of the forecast. 10000 1000 700 Permanent 900 8000 Permanent 700 10000 Decommissioning 900 Decommissioning Operation/maintenance 8000 800 6000 600 Operation/maintenance 6000 6000 600 8000 TheCo ntearlyracted growth in employment is 8000 800 Specialised transport 700 Specialised transport 6000 500 Construction/installation 8000 duePe rmtoanen ant increase in planning and 700 Construction/installation 500 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 6000 600 4000 400 6000 manufacturing and associated design Design/manufacture 4000 4000 400 Design/manufacture 6000 500 4000 Construction/installation Construction/installation activities. Both activities benefit from the 500 300 300 4000 400 Planning/development Planning/development Design/manufacture 4000 4000 400 Design/manufacture 4000 initial pickup in the rate of new capacity. 2000 200 2000 2000 200 300 2000 300 Capacity Capacity Planning/development In addition, UK manufacturers are Planning/development 100 2000 200 2000 2000 200 100 2000 Capacity Capacity also expected to secure a share of the 0 0 0 100 0 100 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 strongly expanding international market, 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 which in this scenario grows much faster than the domestic market. sustained jobs) rises steadily through to The long-term growth in the international 2023 alongside the increase in overall market will sustain employment in the capacity. In 2023, employment in these PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW providers of the capital equipment when activitiesSMALL could ONSH reachORE 2,106 ACTIVI andTIES 1,631, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO the pace of growth in the UK slows after FTEs respectively.GROWTH SCENARIO 2017. The activity makes an important contribution to overall employment in the sector in the long term as jobs in planning and development and 10000 construction and installation activities 10000 fall back. By 2023 employment in 8000 Contracted manufacturing could account for a third 8000 Permanent of all direct jobs in the sector. 6000 Contracted Permanent In this scenario, the number of 6000 4000 jobs associated with operating and maintaining small schemes and 2000 4000 supporting business functions (i.e.

0 2000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE FUTURE CAPACITY: OFFSHORE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE MW FUTURE CAPACITY: OFFSHORE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO 30000 ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 50000 25000 Support and other Job MW Support and other Decommissioning 25000 25000 30000 Decommissioning charts_offshore 40000 Indirect 20000 High Specialised transport Specialised transport MW 25000 20000 Direct 20000 Medium 30000 15000 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 30000 20000 Support and other Job 15000 50000 25000 MW Support and other Low Construction/installation 15000 Construction/installation 20000 10000 Decommissioning Design/manufacture 25000 15000 25000 30000 Decommissioning

charts_offshore Design/manufacture 10000 40000 Indirect 20000 10000 10000 5000 Planning/development Planning/development High Specialised transport Specialised transport 10000 25000 20000 5000 Capacity Direct 20000 Medium 30000 15000 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 0 0 5000 2013 5000 0 2013 LowMediumHigh LowMediumHigh 20000 (Survey) 2023 15000 Low Construction/installation Construction/installation 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (Survey) 2023 15000 0 0 20000 10000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019202020212022 2023 Design/manufacture 15000 Design/manufacture 10000 10000 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 10000 5000 Planning/development Planning/development PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 10000 OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH 5000 Capacity SCENARIO SCENARIO 0 0 5000 2013 5000 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE 0 2013 LowMediumHigh LowMediumHigh ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE (Survey) 2023 ACTI2013VITIES, L2014OW GROWTH2015 SCEN2016ARIO 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (Survey) 2023 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019202020212022 2023

Job MW PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN Support and other Job MW OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH OFFS2500HO0 RE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH 30000 Decommissioning 25000 SCENARIO 25000 30000 25000 SCENARIO Specialised transport Contracted Contracted 25000 Support and other 20000 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE 20000 Permanent 25000 20000 Operation/maintenance ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE 20000 Decommissioning Permanent ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO 20000 Construction/installation 20000 15000 Specialised transport 15000 15000 15000 Design/manufacture Operation/maintenance 15000 15000 10000 10000 10000 Planning/development Construction/installation Job MW 10000 10000 Support and other 10000 Capacity Design/manufacture Job MW 25000 30000 5000 5000 5000 Decommissioning 5000 25000 5000 5000 Planning/development 25000 30000 25000 Contracted Specialised transport 0 Capacity 0 Support and other Contracted 25000 0 0 0 0 20000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20000 Permanent 25000 20000 Operation/maintenance 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015201620172018 2019202020212022 2023 20000 Decommissioning Permanent 20000 Construction/installation 20000 15000 Specialised transport 15000 15000 15000 Design/manufacture Operation/maintenance 15000 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 15000 OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH 10000 10000 10000 Planning/development SCENARIO Construction/installation 10000 10000 10000 Capacity Design/manufacture 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 Planning/development 0 Capacity 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015201620172018 2019202020212022 2023 25000 Contracted 20000 Permanent PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 15000 OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO 10000

5000

0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

25000 Contracted EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE 20000DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO Permanent FUTURE CAPACITY: MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023

15000

10000 10000Job MW charts_marine 1000 High 25000 Support and other 10000 1000 Support and other Medium 8000 Decommissioning 5000 800 Indirect 20000 8000 800 Decommissioning Low Specialised transport Direct 6000 0 Specialised transport 600 Operation/maintenance 15000 60002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020600 2021 2022 2023 Operation/maintenance 4000 Construction/installation Construction/installation 400 10000 Design/manufacture 4000 400 2000 Design/manufacture Planning/development 200 5000 2000 200 Planning/development 0 Capacity EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE 2013 LowMediumHigh ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO FUTURE0 CAPACITY: MARINE 0 ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 0 0 (Survey) 2023 2013201420152016 2017 2018201920202021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 LowMediumHigh (Survey) 2023

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE MW ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 10000 Job MW MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH charts_marine 100DI0RECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE SMALL MARINE ACTIVITIES, HIGH High 25000 GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO Support and other 10000 1000 Support and other Medium 8000 Decommissioning 800 Indirect 20000 8000 800 Decommissioning Low Specialised transport Job Direct MW Job MW 6000 Specialised transport 600 Operation/maintenance 10000 10000 1000 10000 10000 1000 15000 6000 600 Contracted Support and other Operation/maintenance Support and other 4000 Construction/installation Permanent Contracted Decommissioning 8000 8000 800 8000 8000 800 Construction/installation Decommissioning 400 Design/manufacture 4000 400 Permanent Specialised transport 10000 Specialised transport 2000 Design/manufacture Planning/development 6000 6000 600 6000 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 200 2000 200 Planning/development Construction/installation 5000 Construction/installation 0 4000 4000 400 4000 4000 400 Capacity Design/manufacture 2013 LowMediumHigh Design/manufacture (Survey) 0 0 0 Planning/development 0 2023 2013201420152016 2017 2018201920202021 2022 2023 2000 2000 200 Planning/development 2000 2000 200 2013 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Capaci202ty 22023 LowMediumHigh Capacity (Survey) 2023

0 0 0 0 0 0 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 20132014 20152016 201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023 ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL MARINE ACTIVITIES, HIGH MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

Job MW Job MW

10000 10000 1000 10000 10000 1000 10000 Contracted Support and other Support and other Permanent Decommissioning 8000 800 Contracted 8000 Decommissioning 8000 8000 800 8000 Contracted Permanent Specialised transport Permanent Specialised transport 6000 6000 6000 600 6000 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance Construction/installation 4000 Construction/installation 4000 4000 400 4000 400 4000 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture 2000 Planning/development 2000 2000 200 Planning/development 2000 2000 200 Capacity 0 Capacity 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 20132014 20152016 201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

10000

8000 Contracted

Permanent 6000

4000

2000

MW 10000 Support and other Job MW Support and other 1000 16000 Decommissioning 10000 1000 Decommissioning 14000 8000 charts_small onshore Specialised transport 900 Specialised transport 800 Indirect 12000 High Operation/maintenance 8000 800 Direct 6000 Operation/maintenance 10000 Medium 700 600 Construction/installation Construction/installation 8000 6000 600 Low 4000 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture 6000 500 400 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL Planning/development 4000 400 Planning/development DIRE4000CT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL 2000 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 300 Capacity FUTURE CAPACITY: SMALL EMPLOYMENT ACRO200 SS SMALL 2000 SCENARIO 2000 200 ONSHORE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 0 0 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013 LowMediumHigh 100 0 (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 0 0 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920202021 2022 2023 27 MW 10000 Support and other Job MW Support and other 1000 16000 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL Decommissioning PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 10000 1000 DecommissioninDIgRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM 14000 8000 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH Medium deployment scenario for Figure 4.24: DirectSCEN EmploymentARIO in Small Onshore Activities, Medium Growth Scenario GROWTH SCENARIO charts_small onshore Specialised transport 900 Specialised transport SCENARIO 800 GROWTHIn SCdiENrectARIO 12000 small-scale onshore wind (370MW High Operation/maintenance 8000 800 Direct capacity in 2023; 4,326 direct FTE) 6000 Operation/maintenance 10000 Medium 700 600 Construction/installation Construction/installation 8000 Job 6000 600 Low In this scenario capacity increases from 4000 MW Design/manufacture Design/manufactuJoreb MW Contracted 10000 1000 500 6000 the current level of 86 MW to 370 MW in Support and other 400 Support and other 10000 1000 Permanent 2023, less than half the level of the high 900 Planning/development 10000 4000 400 Planning/development 4000 10000 2000 Decommissioning 900 Decommissioning deployment scenario. This reflects less- 8000 800 300 Capacity 2000 8000 Contracted 8000 800 Specialised transport 200 consistent policy support and overall 700 Specialised transport 8000 2000 200 0 Permanent 700 0 lower demand for ‘grow-your-own’ 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013 LowMediumHigh 6000 100 6000 600 6000 0 (Survey) 2023 power. (Survey) 2023 500 Construction/installation 500 Construction/installation 0 0 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 4000 400 Design/manufacture 4000 4000 400 Design/manufacture 4000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920202021 2022 2023 The underlying trend in installed capacity 300 300 Planning/development Planning/development is relatively steady through the period, 2000 200 2000 2000 200 2000 Capacity Capacity with annual increases of around 25MW. 100 100 0 0 Looking further out, the annual increase 0 0 0 0 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021in capacity2022 2023 is expected to drop by about SMAL2013L ON2014SHOR2015E 2016ACTI2017VITI2018ES, ME2019DI2020UM 2021 2022 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO 50% over the following decade. GROWTH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO

A steady increase in installed capacity Figure 4.25: Permanent and Contracted Jobs in Small Onshore Activities, Medium in this scenario means that there is a Growth Scenario PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN fairly stable demand for planning and Job SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW MW GROWTH SCENARIO development activities, and construction Job MW Contracted 10000 1000 and installationSupport and functions other in particular, Support and other 10000 10000 1000 Permanent 900 throughout the period. Post-2023, 10000 Decommissioning 900 Decommissioning 8000 800 slower increases in capacity will begin 8000 Contracted 8000 800 Specialised transport 700 to putSp downwardecialised tran pressuresport on planning 8000 10000 Permanent 700 6000 600 and developmentOperation/main jobstenanc ate the end of the Operation/maintenance forecast. 6000 6000 600 6000 8000 500 Construction/installation 500 Construction/installation Contracted 4000 400 ManufacturingDesign/manuf andac tuassociatedre design 4000 4000 400 Design/manufacture 4000 Permanent 6000 300 activities are also supported by the 300 Planning/development Planning/development 2000 200 steady increase in capacity being 2000 2000 200 2000 Capacity 4000 Capacity 100 installed. Firms engaged in these 100 activities should also benefit from a 0 0 0 0 0 0 2000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 growing overseas market. Growth in the international market is still expected to 0 be rapid, but to be much weaker than in 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 the high-deployment scenario. Overall, employment in manufacturing activities PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN could reach 1,219 by 2023 in this SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW scenario. GROWTH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE FUTURE CAPACITY: OFFSHORE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE Employment in operations and ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO maintenance and business support services rises through the forecast MW period at a relatively steady rate as the

30000 upward pressure on jobs from much Support and other 10000 50000 25000 Job MW Support and other higher levels of capacity exceeds Decommissioning 25000 25000 30000 Decommissioning charts_offshore the efficiencies from learning as 40000 Indirect 20000 High Specialised transport Specialised transport 8000 25000 20000 the technology matures. By 2023, Contracted Direct 20000 employment in these twoMedi umactivities 30000 15000 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 20000 Permanent 15000 6000 reaches 1,144 and 875Lo FTEw respectively. Construction/installation 15000 Construction/installation 20000 10000 This is about 45% of the level reached in Design/manufacture 15000 Design/manufacture 10000 the high deployment scenario. 10000 4000 10000 5000 Planning/development Planning/development 10000 5000 Capacity 0 0 5000 2013 5000 2000 0 2013 LowMediumHigh LowMediumHigh (Survey) 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (Survey) 2023 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019202020212022 2023 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE FUTURE CAPACITY: OFFSHORE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO Job MW Support and other Job MW 25000 30000 Decommissioning 25000 25000 30000 25000 MW Specialised transport Contracted Contracted 25000 Support and other 20000 20000 25000 30000 Permanent 20000 Permanent Operation/maintenance 50000 20000 DecommiSuppossionrtin ang d other Job Support and other 25000 MW 20000 Construction/installation 20000 SpeciaDelisedco trmmiansporssiont ing 15000 25000 15000 15000 25000 30000 Decommissioning charts_offshore 15000 Design/manufacture 40000 Indirect 20000 Operation/maintenance 15000 High 15000 Specialised transport Specialised transport 10000 10000 25000 10000 Planning/development 20000 Direct Construction/installation 20000 10000 10000 Medium 30000 15000 10000 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance Capacity Design/manufacture 20000 15000 5000 5000 5000 Low 5000 Construction/installation 15000 Construction/installation 5000 20000 10000 5000 Planning/development 0 CapaciDety sign/manufacture 0 15000 Design/manufacture 10000 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 100020150 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10000 201350002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Planning/development Planning/developme2013nt 2014 2015201620172018 2019202020212022 2023 10000 5000 Capacity 0 0 5000 2013 5000 0 2013 LowMediumHigh LowMediumHigh PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN (Survey) 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (Survey) 2023 OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH 0 0 SCENARIO 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019202020212022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE 25000 ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO Contracted 20000 Permanent

15000 Job MW Support and other Job MW 25000 30000 10000 Decommissioning 25000 25000 30000 25000 Specialised transport Contracted Contracted 25000 5000 Support and other 20000 20000 Permanent 25000 20000 Operation/maintenance 20000 Decommissioning Permanent 0 20000 Construction/installation 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019200002020 2021 2022 2023 15000 Specialised transport 15000 15000 15000 Design/manufacture Operation/maintenance 15000 15000 10000 10000 10000 Planning/development 10000 Construction/installation 10000 Capacity 10000 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE Design/manufacture EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO 5000 FUTURE CAPACITY: MARINE 5000ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 5000 5000 5000 5000 Planning/development 0 Capacity 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 MW 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015201620172018 2019202020212022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10000 Job MW charts_marine 1000 High 25000 Support and other 10000 1000 Support and other Medium 8000 Decommissioning 800 Indirect 20000 8000 800 Decommissioning Low Specialised transport PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN Direct 6000 OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH Specialised transport 600 Operation/maintenance SCENARIO 15000 6000 600 Operation/maintenance 4000 Construction/installation Construction/installation 400 10000 Design/manufacture 4000 400 2000 Design/manufacture Planning/development 200 5000 2000 200 Planning/development 0 Capacity 2013 LowMediumHigh 0 0 0 0 (Survey) 2023 2013201420152016 2017 2018201920202021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 25000 LowMediumHigh (Survey) 2023 Contracted 20000 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE Permanent ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL MARINE ACTIVITIES, HIGH MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO 15000 GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO

10000

Job MW Job MW 5000 10000 10000 1000 10000 10000 1000 Contracted Support and other Support and other 0 Permanent Contracted Decommissioning 8000 8000 800 8000 8000 800 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Decommissioning Permanent Specialised transport Specialised transport 6000 6000 600 6000 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance Construction/installation Construction/installation 4000 4000 400 4000 400 4000 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MARINE Planning/development ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO FUTURE CAPACITY: MARINE 2000 2000 200 Planning/development 2000 2000 200 ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 Capacity Capacity

0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20132014 20152016 201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023 MW 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023

10000 Job MW charts_marine 1000 High 25000 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN Support and other 10000 1000 MARINE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH Support and other Medium SCENARIO 8000 Decommissioning 800 Indirect 20000 8000 800 Decommissioning Low Specialised transport Direct 6000 Specialised transport 600 Operation/maintenance 15000 6000 600 Operation/maintenance 10000 4000 Construction/installation Construction/installation 400 10000 Design/manufacture 4000 400 8000 Contracted 2000 Design/manufacture Planning/development Permanent 200 5000 2000 200 Planning/development 6000 0 Capacity 2013 LowMediumHigh 0 0 0 0 4000 (Survey) 2023 2013201420152016 2017 2018201920202021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 LowMediumHigh (Survey) 2023 2000

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 0 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL MARINE ACTIVITIES, HIGH 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

Job MW Job MW

0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 20132014 20152016 201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

10000

8000 Contracted

Permanent 6000

4000

2000

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 MW FUTURE CAPACITY: SMALL EMPLOYMENT ACROSS SMALL SCENARIO 10000 Support and other Support and other ONSHORE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 Job MW 1000 16000 Decommissioning 10000 1000 Decommissioning 14000 8000

charts_small onshore Specialised transport 900 Specialised transport 800 Indirect 12000 High Operation/maintenance 8000 800 MW Direct 6000 Operation/maintenance 10000 Support and other 10000 Job MW Support and other Medium 700 600 Construction/installation Construction/installation 1000 16000 Decommissioning 8000 6000 600 10000 1000 Decommissioning Low 4000 8000 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture 14000 6000 500 charts_small onshore Specialised transport 900 Specialised transport 800 Indirect 400 12000 Planning/development 4000 400 Planning/development High 8000 800 4000 2000 6000 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance Direct 300 Capacity 10000 700 2000 600 Medium Construction/installation 200 Construction/installation 2000 200 8000 6000 600 0 Low 4000 0 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013 LowMediumHigh 100 6000 500 400 0 (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 Planning/development Planning/development 0 0 4000 4000 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4020210 2022 2023 2000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920202021 2022 2023 300 Capacity 200 2000 2000 200 0 0 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013 LowMediumHigh 100 0 (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 0 0 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANE2013NT2014 AND2015 CONT2016RAC2017TED 2018JOBS201 IN92 0202021 2022 2023 SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH 28 SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH Low deployment scenario for FigureONSHOR 4.26:E AC TIVDirectITIES ,Employment LOW GROWTH in Small Onshore Activities, Low Growth Scenario SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO Job MW GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO small-scale onshore wind (232MW Job MW Contracted 10000 1000 Support and other capacity in 2023; 2,240 direct FTE) Support and other 10000 1000 Permanent 900 10000 10000 Decommissioning 900 Decommissioning 8000 800 Contracted Job MW The low deployment scenario sees 8000 8000 800 Specialised transport 700 Specialised transport 800Job0 MW Permanent 700 Contracted 10000 1000 installed capacity increase from the Support and other 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance Support and other 10000 1000 6000 600 Permanent 900 10000 current level of 86 MW to 232 MW in 6000 6000 10000 Decommissioning 2023, about 40% below the medium 900 Decommissioning 500 Construction/installation 500 Construction/installation 8000 800 Contracted 8000 800 4000 400 Specialised transport 8000 deployment scenario and 70% below the Specialised transport Design/manufacture 4000 4000 400 Design/manufacture 8000 700 4000 highPermanen deploymentt scenario. The scenario 700 300 300 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance Planning/development Planning/development 6000 represents a failure to support this 6000 600 2000 200 2000 2000 200 6000 2000 Capacity 500 Construction/installation 500 Construction/installation Capacity technology and its potential for future 100 100 4000 400 Design/manufacture 4000 4000 400 Design/manufacture 0 4000 cost reduction as deployment increases, 0 0 0 0 0 300 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020300 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 Planning/development as has happened with other small-scale Planning/development 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2000 200 2000 2000 200 2000 Capacity technologies, with no consideration of Capacity 100 100 the wider benefits. 0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 The underlying profile for capacity is PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN a relatively steady increase through to SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW 2023, of around 10MW pa. The rate of Figure 4.27:GR PermanentOWTH SCE andNAR ContractedIO Jobs in Onshore Small: Low Growth increase post-2023 then falls back, as PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN it does in the other scenarios for this SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO sector, and this will have a downward pressure on planning and development activities at the end of the forecast 10000 period. 8000 Contracted 10000 Overall, direct employment in 2023 is Permanent estimated at 2,240 FTE, around 200 jobs 6000

8000 lower than current levels. Compared to Contracted either the high or medium deployment 4000 Permanent 6000 scenarios, a key factor behind this outcome is the forecasted fall in the 2000 4000 number of manufacturing jobs. This results both from small annual increases 0 2000 in capacity (and hence lower demand 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 for capital equipment) and weak growth in international demand being 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 insufficient to overcome the underlying efficiency gains that can be achieved in manufacturing. DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE FUTURE CAPACITY: OFFSHORE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO Employment in operations and DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE FUTURE CAPACITY: OFFSHORE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 maintenance and business support DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 activities increases through the period MW in this scenario, and could account 30000 50000 25000 Support and other Job MW Support and other for 814 and 593 FTE respectively in MW Decommissioning 25000 25000 30000 Decommissioning 2023. This is only 40% of the jobs charts_offshore 40000 20000 30000 Indirect Support and other High Specialised transport Specialised transport 50000 25000 that the high deployment scenario Job MW Support and other 25000 20000 Direct 20000 Decommissioning 25000 would support in these activities. The 25000 30000 Decommissioning Medium 30000 15000 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance charts_offshore 40000 Indirect 20000 increasing importance of these more 20000 High Specialised transport 15000 Specialised transporLot w Construction/installation 25000 15000 Construction/installation 20000 Direct ‘sustained’ jobs over those supported by 20000 20000 10000 Medium 30000 15000 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance Design/manufacture 15000 Design/manufacture 10000 the provision of new capacity is clearly 20000 15000 5000 10000 Low Construction/installation 15000 Construction/installation 10000 Planning/development Planning/development 10000 shown in Figure 4.27 below. 10000 20000 5000 Design/manufacture 15000 Design/manufacture Capacity 10000 0 5000 10000 0 5000 10000 5000 Planning/development Planning/development 2013 LowMediumHigh 0 10000 2013 LowMediumHigh (Survey) (Survey) 2023 5000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Capacity 2023 0 0 0 0 5000 2013 5000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019202020212022 2023 0 2013 LowMediumHigh LowMediumHigh (Survey) 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (Survey) 2023 0 0 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN OFFSHO2013RE AC2014TIVI2015TIES2,016 HIGH2017 GR201OWTH8201 9202020212022 2023 OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE SCENARIO SCENARIO ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

Job MW Support and other Job MW 25000 30000 Decommissioning 25000 Job MW Support and other 25000 30000 25000 Specialised transport Job MW Contracted Contracted 25000 25000 30000 Decommissioning Support and other 20000 25000 25000 20000 Permanent 25000 20000 25000 30000 20000 Permanent Operation/maintenance Specialised transport Decommissioning Contracted Contracted 25000 20000 Support and other 20000 Construction/installation 20000 15000 20000 Permanent 25000 20000 15000 Operation/maintenance Specialised transport 15000 20000 Decommissioning Permanent 15000 20000 15000 Design/manufacture Construction/installation Operation/maintenance 20000 Specialised transport 15000 15000 15000 15000 10000 10000 10000 Planning/development 15000 Construction/installation 15000 Design/manufacture 10000 Operation/maintenance 10000 Capacity 15000 10000 Design/manufacture 10000 10000 10005000 0 Planning/development 5000 10000 Construction/installation 5000 10000 5000 5000 10000 Capacity 5000 Planning/development Design/manufacture 5000 5000 5000 0 Capacity 0 5000 5000 0 0 5000 Planning/development 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015201620172018 2019202020212022 2023 0 Capacity 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015201620172018 2019202020212022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

25000

25000 Contracted 20000 Contracted Permanent 20000 Permanent 15000

15000 10000

10000 5000

5000 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE FUTDIURERECT CAP EMPLACITOY:YME MANTRINE IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO FUTURE CAPACITY: MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023

MW MW 10000 Job MW charts_marine 1000 10000 Job HighMW 25000 charts_marine 1000 Support and other 10000 1000 High 25000 Support and other 10000 1000 Support and other Medium 8000 Decommissioning Medium 800 Support and other Indirect 8000 Decommissioning 20000 Decommissioning 800 Indirect Low 8000 800 20000 Decommissioning Specialised transport Low 8000 800 Direct Specialised transport 6000 Specialised transport Direct 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Specialised transport 15000 600 Operation/maintenance 6000 600 15000 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 4000 Construction/installation Construction/installation 4000 Construction/installation 400 Construction/installation 10000 Design/manufacture 4000 400 400 10000 Design/manufacture 4000 400 2000 Design/manufacture 2000 Design/manufacture Planning/development Planning/development 200 5000 2000 200 Planning/development 200 5000 2000 200 Planning/development 0 Capacity 0 Capacity 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013 LowMediumHigh 0 0 00 0 0 (Survey) 2023 0 0 (Survey) 2023 2013201420152016 2017 2018201920202021 2022 2023 2013201320120144201522015016 20172016201822017019202201802021 20192022 20220203 2021 20222023 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 LowMediumHigh (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH DISMARECTLL MEMPLARINEOY ACMETINTVITI INES MA, HRIIGHNE MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE SMALL MARINE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO ACTIVITIESGR, OWTHLOW GR SCOWTHENARIO SCENARIO

Job Job MW Job MW MW Job MW 10000 10000 1000 10000 10000 1000 10000 10000 1000 10000 10000 1000 Contracted Contracted Support and other Support and other Support and other Support and other Permanent Permanent Decommissioning Decommissioning 8000 800 Contracted 8000 800 Contracted 8000 Decommissioning 8000 80080000 800 Decommissioning 8000 8000 800 Permanent Specialised transport Permanent Specialised transport Specialised transport Specialised transport 6000 6000 600 6000 60060000 600 Operation/maintenance 6000 600 6000 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance Construction/installation Construction/installation Construction/installation Construction/installation 4000 4000 400 4000 40040000 400 4000 400 4000 400 Design/manufacture 4000 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture Design/manufacture Planning/development Planning/development 2000 200 2000 200 2000 Planning/development 2000 2000 2000 200 Planning/development 2000 2000 200 Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20132014 20152016 201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 20132014 20152016 201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO

10000 10000

8000 Contracted 8000 Contracted Permanent Permanent 6000 6000

4000 4000

2000 2000

0 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 CHARTS - SKILLS

Figure 5.1: Distribution of Employers by Technology Sector (%) Figure 5.2: Distribution of Employers by Activity (%) Figure 5.3: Occupational Structure of Employment 5.4

None of these

Installation Skilled manual or technical jobs Increase operating costs Medium onshore wind 2010 All sectors Construction 2013 Renewables Have difﬁculties meeting quality standards DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL Large scale onshore wind Technical professional jobs DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH Manufacture and manufacturing design ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 Delay developing new products or services FUTURE CAPACITY: SMALL EMPLOYMENT ACROSS SMALL SCENARIO Any onshore wind Management ONSHORE ONSHORSiteE pl aACnningTI anVIdTI deES,velopm 2013ent AND 2023 Lose business or orders to competitors 0102030405060708090 0102030405060 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0% 20%40% 60%80% 100% % of employers % of employers % of employment % of employers

MW 10000 Support and other Job MW Support and other 1000 16000 5.5 5.5 --- VERSION 2!!!!! Decommissioning 10000 1000 Decommissioning 14000 8000 charts_small onshore Specialised transport 900 Specialised transport 800 Indirect 12000 High Operation/maintenance 8000 800 Direct 6000 Operation/maintenance Semi-skilled or operative job Se1000mi -s0killed or operative job Medium 700 600 Whole economy Construction/installation Construction/installation 8000 6000 600 Low Renewables 4000 Skilled manual or technical jobs Skilled manual or technical jobs Design/manufacture Design/manufacture 6000 500 400 Planning/development 4000 400 Planning/development Whole economy 4000 2000 Technical professional jobs Technical professional jobs Renewables 300 Capacity 200 2000 2000 200 0 Management 0 Management 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013 LowMediumHigh 100 0 (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 01020304050 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 0 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920202021 2022 2023 % of female employment % of female employment

CHARTS - PROJECTIONS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSSPE RMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL PERMANENT AND CONTRACDIRECTTE EMPLD JOOYMENBST ACROIN SS DIRECT EMPLONOYSHMENTOR ACROESS AC TIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM ACROSS WIND AND MARINE WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 ENERGY, 2013 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO charts 2013

36% Onshore: large 25% Site Planning or development 27% Construction & Installation 15% Construction & Installation Job MW 11% Manufacture or manufacturing design Operation and maintenance 9% Operation and maintenance 5% Onshore: medium 16% Job MW Contracted 10000 1000 27% Construction & Installation 30% Other direct Support and other 13% Onshore: small Support and other 57% Other direct 10000 1000 Permanent 16% Operation and maint90enanc0 e 10000 46% Indirect 37% Offshore Decommissioning 10000 18% Support services and other activities Decommissioning 900 8000 800 9% Marine 1% Decommissioning 8000 Contracted 8000 800 Specialised transport 700 Specialised transport 8000 2% Specialised Transport Permanent 700 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 6000 6000 600 6000 500 Construction/installation 500 Construction/installation Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 34,373 FTE 4000 400 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Design/manufacture 4000 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results4000 from mid-2013 400 Design/manufacture 4000 300 300 Planning/development Planning/development 2000 200 2000 2000 200 2000 Capacity Capacity DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM 100 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS 100 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

12000

62% England Marine 28% Site Planning or development 29% Site Planning or development 10000 4% Wales Offshore 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design 12% Manufacture or manufacturing design PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN Onshore: small 21% Scotland 8000 20% Construction & Installation 24% Construction & Installation SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW Onshore: medium 15% GROWTH SCENARIO 4% N.Ireland 16% Operation and maintenance Operation and maintenance 6000 Onshore: large 9% Mobile 24% Support services and other activities 17% Support services and other activities

Survey Results 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 4000 from mid-2013 1% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 2000

Total employment: 18,645 FTE 0 Total employment: 6,609 FTE Total employment: 838 FTE 10000 29Survey Results from mid-2013 England WalesScotlandN.Ireland Mobile Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013

8000 Contracted DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL 4.4 Offshore wind DIREFigureCT EMPL 4.28:OY DirectMENT INEmployment OFFSHORE in Offshore Activities, 2013 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013 Permanent ACTIVITIES, 2013 6000 Recent developments

4000 Since 2010, installed capacity in offshore wind has grown from around

291.3GW% Site Pltoanni overng or 3.5GW development by mid-2013. 19% Site Planning or development 27% Site Planning or development 2000 13In% theManuf firstactu resix or manufactmonthsuring of design2013 alone 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design 19% Manufacture or manufacturing design

24around% Cons 1GWtruction of& In capacitystallation became 36% Construction & Installation 20% Construction & Installation

0 15%operational,Operation an includingd maintenanc notablee projects 18% Operation and maintenance 16% Operation and maintenance

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202116%such2022Su asppor thet se rvLondon2023ices and ot Array,her activitie thes world’s 14% Support services and other activities 16% Support services and other activities biggest offshore wind farm, and Greater 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning Gabbard, off the coast of East Anglia. In 2% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 1% Specialised Transport addition, there are now around 17GW of projects in construction, with planning Totalconsent employment: and in 2,464 planning. FTE The capacity Total employment: 6,830 FTE Total employment: 1,724 FTE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE Surveyin the Results immediate from mi pipelined-2013 is expected Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 FUTURE CAPACITY: OFFSHORE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE to pass 20GW as Round 3 projects ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND in development continue to submit AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 Figure 4.29: Employment Across Offshore Activities, 2013 and 2023 EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WINDplanning AND applications over the next two DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 MW MARINE ENERGY, 2013 ANDto 2023 three years. REVISED

30000 Current employment 50000 25000 Support and other Job MW Support and other 60000 60000 Decommissioning 25000 From the latest survey, employment in 25000 30000 Decommissioning charts_offshore Wave 40000 Indirect 20000 120000 offshore wind has more than doubled 50000 50000 Contracted High Offshore Specialised transport Specialised transport since the 2011 study, from 3,100 FTEs 25000 20000 100000 Indirect Direct Permanent 20000 charts-summaryprojections 40000 Small Onshore Medium 40000 15000 Operation/maintenance Direct to more than 6,830 FTEs. Of those 30000 Operation/maintenance 80000 Medium Onshore 6,830 FTEs, 2,503 (36%) are engaged 30000 20000 15000 Low 30000 Construction/installation Large Onshore 15000 Construction/installation 60000 in construction and installation; this 10000 2000200000 is double the employment seen in 20000 Design/manufacture 15000 Design/manufacture 10000 40000 2010. Employment in operations and 10000 10000 10000 10000 5000 Planning/development Planning/development 20000 maintenance has more than doubled 10000 5000 0 Capacity since 2010, to around 1,225 FTEs. The 0 0 2013 LowMediumHigh 0 5000 LowMediumHotherig hmajor activity in this sector relates 0 2023 5000 2013 (Survey) 2013 LowM2013ediumH igh LowMediumHigh 0 2023 2013 LowMediumHigh (Survey) to site planning and development, in (Survey) (Sur2023vey) 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (Survey) 2023 which employment has almost tripled 0 0 (from an estimated 450 FTEs in 2010 to 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019202020212022 2023 1,276 now) ahead of the construction of • Medium deployment scenario: PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN the Round 3 wind farms. Manufacturing 14.6GW capacity in 2023; 9,853 The lower level of optimism reflected in OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH and manufacturing design accounts direct FTE, 6,566 indirect FTE; all three scenarios is due to continued OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO for a further 10% of employment and • Low deployment scenario: 10GW uncertainty (as expressed by the SCENARIO the remaining 17% is in specialised capacity in 2023; 6,565 direct FTE, industry) regarding the effects of the levy DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE transport and other support services AC4,073TIVITIE indirectS, MEDIUM FTE. GROWTH SCENARIO control framework cap, particularly on DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO (see Figure 4.28). the availability of offshore wind contracts The medium scenario represents a lower during any future allocation process, Future prospects rate of deployment than the medium as well as uncertainty as to the effect scenario from the previous 2011 study. of proposed strike price regression on Job MW Support and other Overview The reason for this medium scenario project viability post-2017. Job MW being chosen is that it is closer to 25000 30000 Decommissioning 25000 Three scenarios have been modelled, some25000 scenarios discussed elsewhere7 The size of the opportunity30000 for UK export 25000 Specialised transport Contracted with the following outcomes: and is consistent with policy support of components to support new build Contracted 25000 Support and other 20000 20000 Permanent being weaker and less consistent than elsewhere in Europe varies25000 from as 20000 Operation/maintenance 20000 Decommissioning Permanent • High deployment scenario: 26.7GW in the high deployment case. The high much as 9.7GW in the high scenario to 20000 Construction/installation capacity in 2023; 23,465 direct FTE, deployment scenario remains fully as little as 1.3GW in the20000 low scenario. In 15000 Specialised transport 15000 15000 21,188 indirect FTE; feasible.15000 the high scenario, it is also anticipated Design/manufacture Operation/maintenance 15000 15000 10000 10000 10000 Planning/development Construction/installation 10000 10000 7. The Crown Estate: “UK Offshore Wind Market Study”, published March 2013: www.thecrownestate.co.uk/media/391960/offshore-wind-market-study.pdf 10000 Capacity RenewableUK: “Building an Industry”, published June 2013: www.renewableuk.com/en/publications/index.cfm/BAI2013 Design/manufacture 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 Planning/development 0 Capacity 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015201620172018 2019202020212022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

25000 Contracted 20000 Permanent

15000

10000

5000

0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO FUTURE CAPACITY: MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023

Job MW Job MW

0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 20132014 20152016 201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

10000

8000 Contracted

Permanent 6000

4000

2000

MW 10000 Support and other Job MW Support and other 1000 16000 Decommissioning 10000 1000 Decommissioning 14000 8000 charts_small onshore Specialised transport 900 Specialised transport 800 Indirect 12000 High Operation/maintenance 8000 800 Direct 6000 Operation/maintenance 10000 Medium 700 600 Construction/installation Construction/installation 8000 6000 600 Low 4000 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture 6000 500 400 Planning/development 4000 400 Planning/development 4000 2000 300 Capacity 200 2000 2000 200 0 0 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013 LowMediumHigh 100 0 (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 0 0 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920202021 2022 2023

Job MW Job MW Contracted 10000 1000 Support and other Support and other 10000 1000 Permanent 900 10000 10000 Decommissioning 900 Decommissioning 8000 800 8000 Contracted 8000 800 Specialised transport 700 Specialised transport 8000 Permanent 700 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 6000 6000 600 6000 500 Construction/installation 500 Construction/installation 4000 400 Design/manufacture 4000 4000 400 Design/manufacture 4000 300 300 Planning/development Planning/development 2000 200 2000 2000 200 2000 Capacity Capacity 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

10000

8000 Contracted

Permanent 6000

4000

2000

0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE FUTURE CAPACITY: OFFSHORE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS OFFSHORE that the UK will be able to meet more FigureACTIVI 4.30:TIES, 2013Direct AND Employment 2023 in Offshore Activities, 2013 and 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO of its supply-chain requirements domestically, with the share growing MW from 37% now to 55% by 2023. In the medium scenario, this share rises to 30000 50000 40%, while in the low scenario, the share 25000 Support and other Job MW Support and other Decommissioning 25000 is unchanged. 25000 30000 Decommissioning charts_offshore 40000 Indirect 20000 High Specialised transport Specialised transport 25000 20000 Direct In all scenarios, offshore wind is the 20000 Medium 30000 largest source of potential employment 15000 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 20000 15000 Low in the entire wind and marine energy Construction/installation 15000 Construction/installation 20000 sector, reflecting its importance in the 10000 Design/manufacture 15000 Design/manufacture 10000 transition to a low-carbon UK economy. 10000 10000 5000 Planning/development Planning/development Figure 4.29 shows that the employment 10000 5000 potential is greatest in the high scenario, Capacity 0 0 5000 2013 5000 0 2013 LowMediumHigh with the potential for 23,465 FTE jobs in LowMediumHigh (Survey) 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (Survey) 2023 2023, reflecting a sustained commitment 0 0 to offshore wind and, as a result, 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019202020212022 2023 continued employment in development PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN and construction activities. This would OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH constitute almost half the potential SCENARIO SCENARIO employment across all wind and marine DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO energy sectors. DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO Growth prospects are more modest in the medium and low scenarios, with

employment more ‘long-term’ in nature, Job MW Support and other Job MW to support the capacity now in the 25000 30000 Decommissioning 25000 25000 30000 system. These longer-term jobs generate 25000 Specialised transport Contracted relatively fewer indirect jobs in the rest of Contracted 25000 Support and other 20000 20000 Permanent 25000 the economy compared to the sustained 20000 Operation/maintenance 20000 Decommissioning Permanent employment in planning, manufacturing 20000 Construction/installation 20000 15000 15000 and constructionSpecialised tr inans thepor thigh scenario 15000 15000 Design/manufacture (hence theOperat muchion/ma higherintenanc ratioe of indirect 15000 15000 10000 to direct employment). 10000 10000 Planning/development Construction/installation 10000 10000 10000 Capacity Design/manufacture 5000 In the low scenario, direct employment 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 in offshorePlanni windng/dev inel opm2023en tis projected 0 to be slightlyCapaci tylower than it is now, 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 although many more of those jobs will 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015201620172018 2019202020212022 2023 be ‘permanent’ in nature, to operate and maintain the installed capacity. In contrast, much more of the current PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN employment is temporary in nature, to OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO build new capacity. In the medium case, employment would increase by around 50% over the next ten years, to 9,853 by 2023.

As a result of greater policy uncertainty, the three scenarios represent a much 25000 lower level of optimism compared to that Contracted in the previous study, where, in the high 20000 Permanent scenario, 31GW was projected by 2021. The low scenario from the previous 15000 study was also more optimistic, at 13GW by 2021 (the new low scenario barely 10000 reaches 10GW by 2023).

5000

0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO FUTURE CAPACITY: MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023

Job MW Job MW

0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 20132014 20152016 201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

10000

8000 Contracted

Permanent 6000

4000

2000

MW 10000 Support and other Job MW Support and other 1000 16000 Decommissioning 10000 1000 Decommissioning 14000 8000

charts_small onshore Specialised transport 900 Specialised transport 800 Indirect 12000 High Operation/maintenance 8000 800 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL Direct 6000 Operation/maintenance DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH 10000 700 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 600 Medium Construction/installation FUTURE CAPACITY: SMALL SCENARIO Construction/installation EMPLOYMENT ACROSS SMALL 8000 6000 600 ONSHORE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 Low 4000 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture 6000 500 400 Planning/development 4000 400 Planning/development 4000 2000 300 Capacity MW 200 2000 10000 Support and other Job MW Support and other 2000 200 0 0 1000 16000 Decommissioning 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013 LowMediumHigh 100 10000 1000 Decommissioning 0 (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 14000 8000 0 charts_small onshore Specialised transport 900 Specialised transport 0 800 Indirect 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 12000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920202021 2022 2023 High Operation/maintenance 8000 800 Direct 6000 Operation/maintenance 10000 Medium 700 600 Construction/installation Construction/installation 8000 6000 600 Low 4000 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture 6000 500 400 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN Planning/development PER4000MANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 400 Planning/development DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL 4000 2000 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH 300 Capacity SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO 200 2000 GROWTH SCENARIO 2000 200 0 0 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013 LowMediumHigh 100 0 (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 0 0 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920202021 2022 2023 Job MW Job MW Contracted 10000 1000 Support and other Support and other 10000 1000 Permanent 900 10000 Decommissioning DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 10000 Decommissioning 900 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL 8000 800 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM Contracted 8000 800 SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH Specialised transport 8000 Specialised transport SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO 700 GROWTH SCENARIO 8000 Permanent 700 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 6000 6000 600 6000 500 Construction/installation 500 Construction/installation 4000 400 Job MW Design/manufacture 4000 4000 400 Design/manufacture 4000 Job MW Contracted 10000 1000 300 300 Support and other Planning/development Support and other 10000 1000 Planning/development Permanent 10000 2000 200 2000 2000 200 900 2000 Capacity 10000 Decommissioning 900 Decommissioning Capacity 8000 800 100 100 8000 Contracted 8000 800 Specialised transport 700 Specialised transport 0 0 0 8000 Permanent 0 700 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 6000 600 Operation/maintenance 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Op2022eration/ma2023intenance 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 6000 6000 600 6000 500 Construction/installation 500 Construction/installation 4000 400 Design/manufacture 4000 4000 400 Design/manufacture 4000 300 300 Planning/development Planning/development 2000 200 2000 2000 200 2000 Capacity Capacity 100 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 100 0 SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014GR2015OWTH2016 SC2017ENAR2018IO2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW 10000 GROWTH SCENARIO

8000 Contracted

Permanent 6000

10000 4000

8000 Contracted 2000 Permanent 6000

0 4000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

2000

0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE 31 FUTURE CAPACITY: OFFSHORE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE MW FUTURE CAPACITY: OFFSHORE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 High scenario for offshore wind DIFigureRECT EMPL OY4.31:MENT INDirect OFFSHORE Employment in Offshore Activities, High Growth Scenario ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 (26.7GW capacity in 2023; 23,465 30000 50000 25000 Support and other Job MW Support and other direct FTE) Decommissioning 25000 25000 30000 Decommissioning charts_offshore MW 40000 Indirect 20000 High Specialised transport Specialised transport In the high scenario, offshore wind 25000 30000 20000 Direct 20000 50000 Support and other Job Support and other 25000 capacity grows steadily by around 1GW MW Medium 30000 15000 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance Decommissioning 25000 each year to 2016, before a more rapid 25000 30000 Decommissioning 20000 charts_offshore 15000 Low Construction/installation 40000 Indirect 20000 15000 Construction/installation High growth of 2–3GWSpecialised thereafter transport (see Figure Specialised transport 20000 10000 25000 20000 20000 Design/manufacture 15000 Design/manufacture Direct 4.31). By 2023, offshore wind capacity is 10000 Medium 30000 15000 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 10000 projected to stand at almost 27GW. This 20000 10000 5000 Planning/development Planning/development 15000 10000 Low Construction/installation 15000 Construction/installation 20000 10000 is feasible given the amount of projects 5000 Capacity Design/manufacture 15000 Design/manufacture 0 5000 10000 currently in planning and the known 0 5000 10000 LowMediumHigh 2013 LowMediumHigh 10000 5000 Planning/development 0 Planning/development 2013 plans of turbine manufacturers and other 10000 (Survey) 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (Survey) 2023 5000 supply chain players. Capacity 0 0 0 0 5000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019202020212022 2023 2013 5000 0 2013 LowMediumHigh LowMediumHigh (Survey) (Survey) 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 This acceleration in deployment gives PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMA0NENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 0 rise to the employment profile shown OFFSHO2013RE2 014ACTI2015VITI2ES016, HI2017GH GR201O82WTH0192 02020212022 2023 OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH in Figure 4.31, which shows steady SCENARIO SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN employment growth followed by a OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE SCENARIO SCENARIO sizeable increase in employment. This Figure 4.32: Permanent and Contracted Jobs in Offshore Activities, High Growth ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO Scenario DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE increase begins before the actual ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE deployment of new capacity because ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO of the requirement for planning, Job MW manufacturing and construction jobs. Support and other Job MW 25000 30000 Job MW Decommissioning Employment in these activities persists 25000 Support and other 25000 30000 25000 Job MW over the entire period due to the 25000 Contracted 30000 Decommissioning Specialised transport 25000 Support and other Contracted 25000 25000 30000 25000 expected continued UK commitment 20000 20000 Permanent Specialised transport 25000 20000 Operation/maintenance Contracted Contracted 25000 20000 Permanent Support and other to offshore wind. These contracted 20000 Decommissioning 20000 Permanent 25000 20000 20000 20000 Permanent Operation/maintenance Construction/installation Decommissioning jobs account for almost half of the total 20000 Specialised transport 15000 15000 20000 15000 Construction/installation 15000 20000 Specialised transport employment projected by 2023 (this 15000 Design/manufacture 15000 15000 Operation/maintenance 15000 15000 compares to a share of about two-thirds Design/manufacture 15000 Operation/maintenance 10000 15000 10000 10000 Planning/development 15000 at present). 10000 Construction/installation 10000 10000 10000 Planning/development 10000 Capacity 10000 Construction/installation 10000 10000 Capacity Design/manufacture 10000 5000 5000 Design/manufacture 5000 5000 5000 Permanent employment also increases 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 Planning/development 5000 Planning/development to 2023, to 12,795, to support the new 0 Capacity 0 0 Capacity 0 capacity brought online. As already 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015201620172018 2019202020212022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 mentioned, there is a mild shift towards 2013 2014 2015201620172018 2019202020212022 2023 more permanent jobs over time (see Figure 4.32).

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH In the high scenario, the UK is expected OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO to supply a substantial proportion SCENARIO of the EU market for offshore wind components, and there is expected to be an increase in the proportion of the supply chain located in the UK. This helps to drive continued employment in 25000 design and manufacturing activities from Contracted 25000 20000 less than 671 at present to over 3,196 by Permanent Contracted 2023 in this scenario. 20000 Permanent 15000 15000 10000

10000 5000

0 5000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO FUTURE CAPACITY: MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023

EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO MW FUTURE CAPACITY: MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023

10000 Job MW charts_marine 1000 High 25000 Support and other 10000 1000 MW Support and other Medium 8000 Decommissioning 800 Indirect 20000 Decommissioning 10000 Job MW Low charts_marine 10080000 800 Specialised transport High 25000 Direct Support and other 10000 1000 6000 Specialised transport 600 Operation/maintenance Support and other 15000 6000 600Medium 8000 Decommissioning 800 Operation/maintenance Construction/installation Indirect 4000 Low 20000 8000 800 Decommissioning Construction/installation Specialised transport 400 Design/manufacture Direct 10000 4000 400 6000 Specialised transport 2000 600 Design/manufacture Operation/maintenance Planning/development 15000 6000 600 Operation/maintenance 200 5000 2000 200 Planning/development 4000 Construction/installation 0 Capacity Construction/installation 2013 LowMediumHigh 400 10000 Design/manufacture 4000 400 (Survey) 0 0 0 0 2023 2000 Design/manufacture 2013201420152016 2017 2018201920202021 2022 2023 Planning/development 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 LowMediumHigh (Survey) 2023 200 5000 2000 200 Planning/development 0 Capacity DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO 2013 LowMediumHigh PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 0 0 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 0 0 (Survey) 2023 SMALL MARINE ACTIVITIES, HIGH MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE 2013201420152016 2017 2018201920202021 2022 2023 GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO ACTIVI2013TIES, LOW2014 GROWTH2015 SCEN2016ARIO 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 LowMediumHigh (Survey) 2023

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN Job MW Job MW SMALL MARINE ACTIVITIES, HIGH MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE SCENARIO ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO 10000 10000 1000 10000 10000 GROWTH SCENARIO 1000 Contracted Support and other Support and other Permanent Decommissioning 8000 800 Contracted 8000 Decommissioning 8000 8000 800 Permanent Specialised transport Specialised transport Job MW Job MW 6000 6000 600 6000 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 10000 10000 1000 10000 10000 1000 Contracted Construction/installation Support and other Construction/installation 4000 4000 400 4000 4000 400 Support and other Permanent Design/manufacture Decommissioning 8000 800 Contracted Design/manufacture 8000 Decommissioning 8000 8000 800 Planning/development Permanent Specialised transport 2000 2000 200 Planning/development 2000 2000 200 Capacity Specialised transport Capacity 6000 6000 600 6000 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 0 0 0 0 0 0 Construction/installation 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 20132014 20152016 201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Construction/installation 4000 4000 400 4000 400 4000 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN Planning/development 2000 2000 200 Planning/development 2000 2000 200 MARINE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH Capacity SCENARIO Capacity

0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 20132014 20152016 201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023

10000 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH 8000 Contracted SCENARIO

Permanent 6000

4000 10000

2000 8000 Contracted

0 Permanent 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 6000

4000

2000

MW 10000 Support and other Job MW Support and other 1000 16000 Decommissioning 10000 1000 Decommissioning 14000 8000 charts_small onshore Specialised transport 900 Specialised transport 800 Indirect 12000 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL High DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL Operation/maintenance 8000 800 Direct 6000 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH Operation/maintenance ON1000SH0ORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 Medium SCENARIO 700 FUTURE CAPACITY: SMALL EMPLOYME600NT ACROSS SMALL Construction/installation Construction/installation ONSHORE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 8000 6000 600 Low 4000 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture 6000 500 400 Planning/development 4000 400 Planning/development 4000 2000 300 Capacity 200 2000 MW 2000 200 10000 0 Support and other 0 2013Job LowMediumHigh MW Support and other 1000 2013 LowMediumHigh 100 16000 (Survey) (Survey) 0 2023 Decommissioning 2023 10000 1000 Decommissioning 0 0 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 14000 8000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920202021 2022 2023 charts_small onshore Specialised transport 900 Specialised transport 800 Indirect 12000 High Operation/maintenance 8000 800 Direct 6000 Operation/maintenance 10000 700 600 Medium Construction/installation DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN Construction/installation 8000 6000 600 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL Low PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN ONSHOR4000E ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH Design/manufacture Design/manufacture ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH 6000 SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO 500 400 GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO Planning/development 4000 400 Planning/development 4000 2000 300 Capacity 200 2000 2000 200 0 Job 0 MW 2013 2013 LowMediumHigh LowMediumHigh 100 Job MW Contracted 10000 1000 0 (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 Support and other Support and other 0 0 10000 1000 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Permanent 900 10000 10000 Decommissioning 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920202021 2022 2023 900 Decommissioning 8000 800 8000 Contracted 8000 800 Specialised transport 700 Specialised transport 8000 Permanent 700 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 6000 6000 600 6000 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 500 Construction/installation 500 Construction/installation DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SM4000ALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM 400 Design/manufacture 4000 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH 4000 400 Design/manufacture SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH 4000 SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO 300 SCENARIO 300 Planning/development Planning/development 2000 200 2000 2000 200 2000 Capacity Capacity 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 Job 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 MW2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Job MW Contracted 10000 1000 Support and other Support and other 10000 1000 Permanent 900 10000 10000 Decommissioning 900 Decommissioning 8000 800 8000 Contracted 8000 800 Specialised transport PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN Specialised transport 8000 700 SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW Permanent 700 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance GROWTH SCENARIO 6000 6000 600 6000 500 Construction/installation 500 Construction/installation 4000 400 Design/manufacture 4000 4000 400 Design/manufacture 4000 300 300 Planning/development Planning/development 2000 200 2000 2000 200 2000 10000 Capacity Capacity 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 8000 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Contracted Permanent 6000

4000

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW 2000 GROWTH SCENARIO 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

10000 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE FUTURE CAPACITY: OFFSHORE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO 8000 Contracted

Permanent 6000 MW

30000 50000 25000 Support and other Job MW Support and other 4000 Decommissioning 25000 25000 30000 Decommissioning charts_offshore 40000 Indirect 20000 High Specialised transport Specialised transport 2000 25000 20000 Direct 20000 Medium 30000 15000 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 20000 15000 0 Low Construction/installation 15000 Construction/installation 20000 10000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Design/manufacture 15000 Design/manufacture 10000 10000 10000 5000 Planning/development Planning/development 10000 5000 Capacity 0 0 5000 2013 5000 0 2013 LowMediumHigh LowMediumHigh (Survey) 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (Survey) 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE 0 0 FUTURE CAPACITY: OFFSHORE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019202020212022 2023 ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 32 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO MW SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE 30000 Medium deployment scenario FigureACTIVITIE 4.33:S, MEDI UMDirect GROWTH Employment SCENARIO in Offshore Activities, Medium Growth Scenario DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE Support and other Job 50000 (14.6GW capacity in 2023; 9,853 25000 MW Support and other ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO Decommissioning 25000 25000 30000 Decommissioning charts_offshore direct FTE) 40000 Indirect 20000 High Specialised transport Specialised transport 25000 Job MW 20000 Direct The medium deployment scenario for 20000 Support and other Medium 30000 Job 15000 MW Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance offshore wind is characterised by slow, 25000 30000 Decommissioning 25000 25000 20000 15000 Low 25000 30000 Construction/installation Construction/installation Contracted steady growth of 500–1,000MW to 15000 Specialised transport 20000 10000 Support and other Contracted 25000 Design/manufacture 15000 20000 20000 Permanent 2017, before a burst of higher growth 25000 20000 Design/manufacture Operation/maintenance 10000 20000 Decommissioning Permanent (1–2GW each year) to 2021. The rate of 5000 10000 20000 10000 Planning/development Planning/development Construction/installation 20000 Specialised transport 10000 15000 5000 15000 growth steadies to around 500MW each 15000 15000 Capacity Design/manufacture year thereafter. This is consistent with 0 Operation/maintenance 15000 0 15000 5000 2013 5000 0 10000 2013 LowMediumHigha number of scenarios that have been LowMediumHigh 10000 10000 Planning/development 10000 (Survey) 2023 Construction/installation (Survey) 2023 8 10000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 placed in the public domain, although 10000 Capacity Design/manufacture 0 0 5000 industry argues that the actual level of 5000 5000 5000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019202020212022 2023 5000 deployment could far outstrip this. By 5000 Planning/development 0 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN Capacity 0 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 2023, there are 14.6GW of installed 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 OFFS0 HORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH capacity in the UK in this scenario. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015201620172018 2019202020212022 2023 SCENARIO SCENARIO Figure 4.33 and Figure 4.34 show that DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO capacity under this scenario generates DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN a temporary increase in employment Figure 4.34: Permanent and Contracted Jobs in Offshore Activities, Medium Growth OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH around 2018 to support the installation Scenario SCENARIO of new capacity (through contracted

jobs). At this peak, total employment Job MW Support and other Job MW reaches 11,967 FTEs. 25000 30000 Decommissioning 25000 25000 30000 25000 Specialised transport Contracted Lower deployment later in the period Contracted 25000 Support and other 20000 20000 25000 reduces the requirement for contracted Permanent 20000 Permanent Operation/maintenance 20000 25000 Decommissioning jobs in planning, manufacturing and 20000 Contracted Construction/installation 15000 20000 construction.Sp ecTheialis employmented transport of 15000 20000 15000 15000 Permanent Design/manufacture 9,853 FTEsOp byerat 2023ion/ma isin dominatedtenance by 15000 15000 10000 15000 permanent jobs to operate and maintain 10000 10000 Planning/development Construction/installation 10000 the installed capacity. This is around 10000 10000 Capacity 10000 50% higherDe thansign /mcurrentanufactu employment.re 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 By 2023, therePlanni isng also/devel aopm muchent higher 5000 0 share of permanentCapacity jobs compared to 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 now. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2013 2014 2015201620172018 2019202020212022 2023 2013 2014 2015201320162014201720152018 20192016 20202017202120182022 20192023 2020 2021 2022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE SCENARIO ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO FUTURE CAPACITY: MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023

10000 Job MW charts_marine 1000 High 25000 Support and other 10000 1000 Support and other Medium 8000 Decommissioning 800 Indirect 20000 8000 800 Decommissioning 25000 Low Specialised transport Direct Contracted 6000 Specialised transport 600 Operation/maintenance 20000 15000 6000 600 Permanent Operation/maintenance 4000 Construction/installation Construction/installation 15000 400 10000 Design/manufacture 4000 400 2000 Design/manufacture Planning/development 10000 200 5000 2000 200 Planning/development 0 Capacity 2013 LowMediumHigh 5000 0 0 0 0 (Survey) 2023 2013201420152016 2017 2018201920202021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 LowMediumHigh 0 (Survey) 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 8. The Crown Estate: “UK Offshore Wind Market Study”, published March 2013: www.thecrownestate.co.uk/media/391960/offshore-wind-market-study.pdf DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE RenewableUK: “Building an Industry”, published June 2013: www.renewableuk.com/en/publications/index.cfm/BAI2013ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL MARINE ACTIVITIES, HIGH MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

10000 10000 1000 10000 10000 1000 Contracted Support and other MW Support and other Permanent Contracted Decommissioning 8000 8000 800 8000 8000 800 10000 Decommissioning Job MW charts_marine 1000 Permanent Specialised transport High 25000 SpecialisSuedppor transtpor antd other 10000 1000 6000 6000 600 6000 Support and other 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Medium 8000 OperatioDen/macoinmmistenancsieoning 800 Indirect 20000 Decommissioning Construction/installation Low Construction/installation 8000 800 4000 4000 400 Specialised transport 4000 4000 400 Direct 6000 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture Specialised transport 600 Operation/maintenance 15000 6000 600 Planning/development 2000 2000 200 Planning/development 2000 Operation/maintenance 2000 200 4000 Construction/installation Capacity Capacity Construction/installation 400 Design/manufacture 4000 400 10000 0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 201320002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 Design/manufacture 20132014 20152016 201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Planning/development 200 5000 2000 200 Planning/development 0 Capacity PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 2013 LowMediumHigh MARINE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH 0 0 0 0 SCENARIO (Survey) 2023 2013201420152016 2017 2018201920202021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 LowMediumHigh (Survey) 2023

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 10000 SMALL MARINE ACTIVITIES, HIGH MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

8000 Contracted

Permanent 6000 Job MW Job MW

10000 10000 1000 10000 10000 1000 Contracted 4000 Support and other Support and other Permanent Decommissioning 8000 800 Contracted 8000 2000 Decommissioning 8000 8000 800 Permanent Specialised transport Specialised transport 6000 6000 0 600 6000 6000 600 Operation/maintenance 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 2021Operat2022ion/main202tenanc3 e Construction/installation Construction/installation 4000 4000 400 4000 400 4000 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture Planning/development 2000 2000 200 Planning/development 2000 2000 200 Capacity Capacity

0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 20132014 20152016 201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

10000

8000 Contracted

Permanent 6000

4000

2000

MW 10000 Support and other Job MW Support and other 1000 16000 Decommissioning 10000 1000 Decommissioning 14000 8000

charts_small onshore Specialised transport 900 Specialised transport 800 Indirect 12000 High Operation/maintenance 8000 800 Direct 6000 Operation/maintenance 10000 Medium 700 600 Construction/installation Construction/installation 8000 6000 600 Low 4000 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture 6000 500 400 Planning/development 4000 400 Planning/development 4000 2000 300 Capacity 200 2000 2000 200 0 0 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013 LowMediumHigh 100 0 (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 0 0 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920202021 2022 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 FUTURE CAPACITY: SMALL EMPLOYMENT ACROSS SMALL SCENARIO ONSHORE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO MW GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO 10000 Support and other Job MW Support and other 1000 16000 Decommissioning 10000 1000 Decommissioning 14000 8000 charts_small onshore Specialised transport 900 Specialised transport 800 Indirect 12000 High Operation/maintenance 8000 800 Job MW Direct 6000 Operation/maintenance 10000 Job MW Medium Contracted 700 10000 1000 600 Construction/installation Construction/installation Support and other 8000 6000 600 Support and other 10000 1000 Low 4000 Permanent 900 10000 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture 6000 10000 500 Decommissioning 900 Decommissioning 400 8000 800 Planning/development Planning/development 4000 4000 400 Contracted 8000 800 2000 Specialised transport 8000 Specialised transport 8000 300 Capacity 700 200 2000 Permanent 700 2000 200 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 0 0 6000 6000 600 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013 LowMediumHigh 6000 100 500 Construction/installation 0 (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 Construction/installation 500 0 0 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 4000 400 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920202021 2022 2023 Design/manufacture 4000 4000 400 Design/manufacture 4000 300 300 Planning/development Planning/development 2000 200 2000 2000 200 2000 Capacity Capacity DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 100 100 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH 0 0 0 SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO 0 0 0 SCENARIO SCENARIO 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 GROWTH SCENARIO 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Job MW Job MW Contracted 10000 1000 Support and other Support and other 10000 1000 Permanent 900 10000 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 10000 Decommissioning 900 Decommissioning 8000 800 SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW 8000 Contracted 8000 GROWTH SCENARIO 800 Specialised transport 700 Specialised transport 8000 Permanent 700 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 6000 6000 600 6000 500 Construction/installation 500 Construction/installation 4000 400 Design/manufacture 4000 4000 400 Design/manufacture 4000 300 300 Planning/development Planning/development 2000 200 2000 100002000 200 2000 Capacity Capacity 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 8000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Contracted

Permanent 6000

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 4000 SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO 2000

0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10000

8000 Contracted

Permanent 6000 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE FUTURE CAPACITY: OFFSHORE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO 4000 ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023

2000 MW

0 30000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 50000 25000 Support and other Job MW Support and other Decommissioning 25000 25000 30000 Decommissioning charts_offshore 40000 Indirect 20000 High Specialised transport Specialised transport 25000 20000 Direct 20000 Operation/maintenance DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE Medium 30000 15000 Operation/maintenance FUTURE CAPACITY: OFFSHORE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE 20000 AC15000TIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 Low Construction/installation 15000 Construction/installation 20000 10000 Design/manufacture 15000 Design/manufacture 10000 10000 MW 10000 5000 Planning/development Planning/development 10000 30000 5000 Capacity 50000 25000 Support and other Job MW Support and other 0 5000 Decommissioning 0 5000 25000 25000 30000 Decommissioning 2013 LowMediumHigh charts_offshore 0 2013 LowMediumHigh 40000 Indirect 20000 (Survey) (Survey) 2023 High Specialised transport 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Specialised2023 transport 2023 25000 20000 Direct 20000 0 0 Medium 30000 15000 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019202020212022 2023 20000 15000 Low Construction/installation 15000 Construction/installation 20000 10000 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN Design/manufacture PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 15000 Design/manufacture 10000 OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH 10000 10000 5000 Planning/development SCENARIO Planning/development SCENARIO 10000 5000 Capacity DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE 0 0 5000 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE 2013 5000 ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO 0 2013 LowMediumHigh LowMediumHigh ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO (Survey) 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (Survey) 2023 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019202020212022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 33 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN Job MW Support and other OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH Job MW SCENARIO SCENARIO 25000 30000 Decommissioning 25000 25000 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE 25000 30000 ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE Specialised transport Low deployment scenario (10GW FigureACTIVI 4.35:TIES, LDirectOW GR OWTHEmploymentCo SCntENraARctIOed in Offshore Activities, Low Growth Scenario Contracted 25000 Support and other 20000 capacity in 2023; 6,565 direct FTE) 20000 Permanent 25000 20000 Operation/maintenance 20000 Decommissioning Permanent 20000 Construction/installation In the low scenario, deployment of 20000 Specialised transport 15000 15000Job MW Support and other 15000 15000 Job MW offshore wind is steady but slow, at 15000 Design/manufacture 25000 30000 Decommissioning Operation/maintenance 25000 25000 400–600MW each year from 2015 15000 25000 30000 10000 10000 10000 Planning/development Contracted Specialised transport Support and other onwards.Contracted By 2023, capacity is just under 25000 10000 Construction/installation 20000 10000 Capacity 20000 Permanent 25000 20000 10GW (little more than three times total Operation/maintenance 10000 20000 Decommissioning Permanent Design/manufacture 5000 20000 5000 5000 installed capacity at the end of 2012). In Construction/installation 20000 15000 5000 5000 15000 Specialised transport 15000 5000 Planning/development 15000 this scenario, lower levels of deployment 15000 Design/manufacture Operation/maintenance (at the most cost-effective sites only) 0 Capacity 0 15000 0 0 10000 10000 10000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Planning/d2022evelopment2023 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10000 Construction/installation limit the opportunity to establish an 10000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015201620172018 2019202020212022 2023 10000 industrial base producing the equipment Capacity Design/manufacture 5000 5000 5000 5000 in the UK, creating a corresponding 5000 5000 Planning/development opportunity elsewhere in the world. 0 Capacity 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 PERM2013ANENT2014 AND201 CO52NT01RACT6201ED72 JO018BS201 IN 9202020212022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 In this scenario, employment in 2023 OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH is actually slightly below the current SCENARIO level, although much more of it is

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN concentrated in permanent, rather than Figure 4.36: Permanent and Contracted Jobs in Offshore: Low Growth Scenario OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH temporary, activities (see Figure 4.35 SCENARIO and Figure 4.36).

By 2023, employment in offshore wind in

the low scenario is projected to be 6,565 25000 FTEs (compared to 6,830 now). Of those Contracted 6,565 FTEs, four-fifths are in permanent 20000 25000 offshore activities, compared to one Permanent Contracted third at present. 20000 15000 Permanent

15000 10000

10000 5000

5000 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

MW MW 10000 Job MW charts_marine 1000 Job High 25000 Support and other 10000 MW charts_marine 10010000 0 1000 High Support and other 25000 Medium 8000 Decommissioning Support and other 10000 1000 800 Indirect 20000 8000 800 Medium Decommissioning Support and other Low Specialised transport 8000 Decommissioning Direct 800 Indirect 6000 Low Specialised transport 20000 8000 800 Decommissioning 600 Operation/maintenance Specialised transport 15000 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Direct 6000 Construction/installation Specialised transport 4000 600 Operation/maintenance Construction/installation 15000 6000 600 400 10000 Design/manufacture 4000 400 Operation/maintenance Construction/installation 2000 Design/manufacture 4000 Planning/development Construction/installation 400 Design/manufacture 200 5000 2000 200 Planning/development 10000 4000 400 0 Capacity 2000 Design/manufacture Planning/development 2013 LowMediumHigh 0 0 0 0 (Survey) 2023 200 2000 200 Planning/development 2013201420152016 2017 2018201920202021 2022 2023 5000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 LowMediumHigh 0 Capacity (Survey) 2023 2013 LowMediumHigh (Survey) 0 0 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE 0 0 2023 ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO 2013201420152016 2017 2018201920202021 2022 2023 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 LowMediumHigh SMALL MARINE ACTIVITIES, HIGH MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE (Survey) 2023 GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL MARINE ACTIVITIES, HIGH MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE Job MW Job GROWTH SCENARIO MW SCENARIO ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

10000 10000 1000 10000 10000 1000 Contracted Support and other Support and other Permanent Decommissioning 8000 800 Contracted 8000 Decommissioning 8000 8000 800 Permanent Specialised transport Job MW Job MW Specialised transport 6000 600 6000 6000 100006000 600 Operation/maintenance 10000 1000 10000 10000 1000 Operation/maintenance Contracted Support and other Construction/installation Support and other Construction/installation 4000 4000 400 4000 4000 Perm40anent0 Contracted Decommissioning 8000 Design/manufacture 8000 800 8000 8000 800 Design/manufacture Decommissioning Planning/development Permanent Specialised transport 2000 2000 200 Planning/development 2000 2000 200 Specialised transport Capacity 6000 600 Capacity 6000 6000 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 0 0 0 0 0 0 Construction/installation 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 20132014 20152016 201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Construction/installation 4000 4000 400 4000 400 4000 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture Planning/development PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 2000 2000 200 Planning/development 2000 2000 200 MARINE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH Capacity SCENARIO Capacity

0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 20132014 20152016 201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023

10000 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH 8000 Contracted SCENARIO Permanent 6000

4000

10000 2000

8000 0 Contracted 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Permanent 6000

4000

2000

MW 10000 Support and other Job MW Support and other 1000 16000 Decommissioning 10000 1000 Decommissioning 14000 8000 charts_small onshore Specialised transport 900 Specialised transport 800 Indirect 12000 High Operation/maintenance 8000 800 Direct 6000 Operation/maintenance 10000 Medium 700 600 Construction/installation Construction/installation 8000 6000 600 Low 4000 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture 6000 500 400 Planning/development 4000 400 Planning/development 4000 2000 300 Capacity 200 2000 2000 200 0 0 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013 LowMediumHigh 100 0 (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 0 0 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920202021 2022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

CHARTS - SKILLS

Figure 5.1: Distribution of Employers by Technology Sector (%) Figure 5.2: Distribution of Employers by Activity (%) Figure 5.3: Occupational Structure of Employment 5.4 10000

None of these 8000 Marine Contracted Support Services Other employees incl. administrative Outsource work Permanent support staff Offshore wind 6000 Increase workload for other staff 2010 Specialised transport Semi-skilled or operative job Small onshore wind 2013 Maintenance Have difﬁculties introducing new working … 4000 Installation Skilled manual or technical jobs Increase operating costs Medium onshore wind 2010 All sectors Construction 2013 Renewables Have difﬁculties meeting quality standards Large scale onshore wind 2000 Technical professional jobs Manufacture and manufacturing design Delay developing new products or services Any onshore wind Management Site planning and development 0 Lose business or orders to competitors 0102030405060708090 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 01201902202003202104202205062023 0 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0% 20%40% 60%80% 100% % of employers % of employers % of employment % of employers

5.5 5.5 --- VERSION 2!!!!! DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE FUTURE CAPACITY: OFFSHORE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO

Semi-skilled or operative job Semi -skilled or operative job MW Whole economy

30000 Renewables Skilled manual or technical jobs Skilled manual or technical jobs 50000 25000 Support and other Job MW Support and other Decommissioning 25000 25000 30000 Decommissioning Whole charts_offshore economy 40000 20000 Technical professional jobs Technical professional jobs Indirect Renewables High Specialised transport Specialised transport 25000 20000 Direct 20000 Medium 30000 15000 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance Management Management 20000 15000 Low Construction/installation 15000 Construction/installation 01020304050 20000 10000 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40 Design/manufacture 15000 Design/manufacture 10000 % of female employment % of female employment 10000 10000 5000 Planning/development Planning/development 10000 5000 Capacity 0 5000 0 5000 CHARTS - PROJECTIONS 2013 LowMediumHigh 0 DIRECT EMPLOYMEN2013T ACRO SS LowMediumHigh (Survey) DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT (Survey) 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS ACROSS WIND AND MARINE 0 0 WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 ENERGY, 2013 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019202020212022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN charts 2013 OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO 36% Onshore: large 25% Site Planning or development 27% Construction & Installation 15% Construction & Installation DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE 11% Manufacture or manufacturing design 9% Operation and maintenance 5% Onshore: medium ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO 16% Operation and maintenance DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE 27% Construction & Installation 30% Other direct ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO 13% Onshore: small 57% Other direct 16% Operation and maintenance 46% Indirect 37% Offshore 18% Support services and other activities

9% Marine 1% Decommissioning Job MW Support and other 2% Specialised Transport Job MW 25000 30000 Decommissioning 25000 25000 30000 25000 Specialised transport Contracted Contracted 25000 Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 18,645 FTE Support and other Total employment: 34,373 FTE 20000 Survey Results from mid-201320000 Permanent Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results25000 from mid-2013 20000 Survey Results from mid-2013 Operation/maintenance 20000 Decommissioning Permanent 20000 Construction/installation 20000 15000 Specialised transport 15000 15000 15000 Design/manufacture Operation/maintenance 15000 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS 15000 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 10000 10000 10000 Planning/development AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 Construction/installation 10000 10000 10000 Capacity Design/manufacture 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 Planning/development 0 12000 Capacity 0 0 0 62% England 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Marine 0 28% Site Pl0anning or development 2013 2014 2015 201629% 2017Site Planni2018ng or development2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015201620172018 2019202020212022 2023 4% Wales Offshore 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design 12% Manufacture or manufacturing design Onshore: small 21% Scotland 8000 20% Construction & Installation 24% Construction & Installation Onshore: medium 4% N.Ireland 16% Operation and maintenance 15% Operation and maintenance 6000 Onshore: large 9% Mobile 24% Support services and other activities 17% Support services and other activities PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH Survey Results 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 4000 SCENARIO from mid-2013 1% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 2000

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE DIFigureRECT EMP4.37:LO DirectYMENT INEmployment MARINE in Marine Activities, 2013 SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 25000 4.5 Marine ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013 Contracted 20000 Recent developments Permanent

15000 The wave and tidal stream (marine) energy industry has reached an 29% Site Planning or development 19% Site Planning or development 27% Site Planning or development 10000 important phase in its development 13% Manufacture or manufacturing design 10as% theManuf firstactu resmall or manufact arraysuring aredesign now 19% Manufacture or manufacturing design 24% Construction & Installation 36% Construction & Installation 20% 5000 being developed and commissioned. Construction & Installation 15% Operation and maintenance 18Technology% Operation and development maintenance has 16% Operation and maintenance 16% Support services and other activities 14% 16% 0 progressedSupport se quicklyrvices and otinher the activitie pasts year Support services and other activities 1% Decommissioning 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221%– thereDe2023co ismmis nowsion almosting 10MW of wave 1% Decommissioning 2% Specialised Transport 2%and tidalSpecia lisstreamed Trans porenergyt installed in the 1% Specialised Transport UK, compared to 2.4MW in 2010, with 12 large-scale prototype devices now Total employment: 2,464 FTE Total employment: 6,830 FTE Total employment: 1,724 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 Surveyoperating Results or from having mid- 2013been commissioned Survey Results from mid-2013 in the last year. Current levels of UK EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO FUTURE CAPACITY: MADIRIRENECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND deployment exceed the combined ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 deployment in the rest of the world, EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND and strong partnerships between major DIFigureRECT EMPL 4.38:OYMEN EmploymentT ACROSS WI AcrossND Marine Activities, 2013 and 2023 MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED MW engineering firms and utilities are well established. 10000 Job MW charts_marine 1000 High 25000 The 40MW Aquamarine Power Wave Support and other 10000 1000 60000 60000 Medium Farm off the Isle of Lewis now has full Support and other Wave 8000 Decommissioning 120000 800 consent. This is a significant milestone Indirect 50000 2000500000 Contracted 8000 800 Decommissioning Low for the industry as itO ffsisho there largest Specialised transport 100000 Indirect PermDianentrect charts-summaryprojections 40000 marine-energy projectSmall everOnshor toe be 40000 6000 Specialised transport Direct 600 Operation/maintenance 80000 Medium Onshore 15000 6000 600 30000 consented. Scottish Power Renewables’ 30000 Operation/maintenance Islay project receivedLarg econsent Onshore for 10MW 4000 Construction/installation 60000 20000 Construction/installation 400 of tidal turbines and was awarded New 1000200000 Design/manufacture 4000 400 40000 10000 Entrants Reserve 300 funding from the 2000 Design/manufacture 10000 Planning/development 20000 European Commission. In addition to 200 0 5000 2000 200 Planning/development this, funding for the Marine Energy Array 0 0 2013 LowMediumHigh 0 Capacity LowMediumHigh 2023 2013 (Survey) Demonstrator has been awarded to two 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013 LowMediumHigh (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 0 0 0 of the world’s leading array projects: 0 (Survey) 2023 2013201420152016 2017 2018201920202021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 MeyGen20222 in 02the3 Pentland Firth and Marine 2013 LowMediumHigh Current Turbine’s Skerries project off the (Survey) 2023 coast of Anglesey were awarded £10m DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE each to develop the first array projects. beenAC moreTIVITI ES,modest, MEDIUM GRincreasingOWTH SCEN byARIO 50% • Low deployment scenario: 56MW PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL MARINE ACTIVITIES, HIGH to 325 FTEs. capacity in 2023; 1,447 direct FTE, MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE GROWTH SCENARIO Current employment 649 indirect FTE. SCENARIO ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO Activities directly relating to deployment Employment in marine power has more of marine devices account for 66% The wave and tidal energy industry than doubled since the last Working of employment in the sector, with a has developed significantly in 2013, Job for a Green Britain study, standing at further 16% working in operation and and the UK now has moreMW full-scale Job MW 10000 1,724 FTEs compared to the 800 FTEs maintenance10000 (see Figure 4.37). marine energy devices 1000installed than 10000 10000 1000 Contracted Support and other recorded in 2010. the rest of the world combined, with Support and other Permanent Decommissioning Future8000 prospects the potential for much greater800 levels Contracted 8000 Decommissioning 8000 8000 800 Employment has increased in all of deployment in the coming years. Permanent Specialised transport activities: Overview However, the scenarios in this study Specialised transport 6000 6000 reflect lower expectations600 about future 6000 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance • Site planning and development has Three scenarios have been modelled, build compared to the 2011 study. Construction/installation Construction/installation 4000 tripled, to 459 FTEs; with the4000 following outcomes: This is in line with concerns400 among 4000 400 4000 Design/manufacture • Construction and installation the wind technologies regarding policyDe sign/manufacture employment, at 347 FTEs, is 2.5 • High deployment scenario: 676MW uncertainty, but also reflects the high Planning/development 2000 2000 200 Planning/development 2000 2000 200 times larger than previously; capacity in 2023; 9,148 direct FTE, transmission charges faced by marine Capacity • Operation and maintenance has 13,873 indirect FTE; technologies and a more cautious Capacity 0 almost quadrupled, to 273 FTEs. • Medium0 deployment scenario: consenting regime. The0 new scenarios 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 328MW2013 capacity2014 2015 in 2023;2016 20175,6312018 2019 illustrate2020 2021 the2022 extent2023 to which the early 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 20132014 20152016 201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Growth in design and manufacturing has direct FTE, 6,476 indirect FTE; development of the sector is still closely

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

10000

8000 Contracted

Permanent 6000

4000

2000

MW 10000 Support and other Job MW Support and other 1000 16000 Decommissioning 10000 1000 Decommissioning 14000 8000 charts_small onshore Specialised transport 900 Specialised transport 800 Indirect 12000 High Operation/maintenance 8000 800 Direct 6000 Operation/maintenance 10000 Medium 700 600 Construction/installation Construction/installation 8000 6000 600 Low 4000 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture 6000 500 400 Planning/development 4000 400 Planning/development 4000 2000 300 Capacity 200 2000 2000 200 0 0 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013 LowMediumHigh 100 0 (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 0 0 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920202021 2022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

10000

8000 Contracted

Permanent 6000

4000

2000

0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE FUTURE CAPACITY: OFFSHORE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

25000 Contracted 20000 Permanent

15000

10000

5000

0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 35

EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO FUTURE CAPACITY: MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 tied to government support in order to Figure 4.39: Direct Employment in Marine Activities, 2013 and 2023 realise longer-term competitive gains once the industry has matured and can MW stand on its own. 10000 Job MW charts_marine 1000 High 25000 All scenarios project high growth in Support and other 10000 1000 Support and other Medium marine deployment compared to the 8000 Decommissioning 800 Indirect 20000 8000 800 Decommissioning Low low levels of capacity deployed now, Specialised transport Direct but also predict a shift in the sector, 6000 Specialised transport 600 Operation/maintenance 15000 from its current nascent form (with 6000 600 Operation/maintenance a heavy emphasis on R&D) to more 4000 Construction/installation Construction/installation 400 10000 generalised manufacturing, construction Design/manufacture 4000 400 2000 Design/manufacture and operation techniques as the Planning/development 200 5000 technologies mature. In all scenarios, 2000 200 Planning/development this will be accompanied by some 0 Capacity 2013 LowMediumHigh degree of outsourcing, such that the 0 0 0 0 (Survey) 2023 2013201420152016 2017 2018201920202021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 LowMediumHproportionigh of the supply chain located (Survey) 2023 in the UK will fall from 100% now to

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE around 70% by 2023. ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL MARINE ACTIVITIES, HIGH The scenarios diverge due to different ThisMARI differenceNE ACTIVITI ESin ,export MEDIUM capability GROWTH across DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO assumptions about the level and scenarios is a reflection of: consistency of Government support for this emerging industry. In the high • Diminished UK-export opportunities in the Job MWscenario, the opportunity to establish low case, where policy support to help Job MW

10000 10000 1000the UK as the premier country for marine 1000develop0 the technology is weak, leading to a 10000 1000 Contracted Support and other energy is recognised,Support and ot heandr therefore lower rate of development in the sector and Permanent Decommissioning 8000 800deployment of generation capacity is less opportunity for the UK to consolidate its Contracted 8000 Decommissioning 8000 8000 800 maximised and the supply chain fully expertise and market position; Permanent Specialised transport supported.Sp Inec theialis edmedium transport scenario, • Stronger policy support to develop the 6000 6000 600 6000 6000 600 Operation/maintenance more tentativeOperat supportion/mainte nancis givene due to UK’s position as the market leader in Construction/installation limits beingCo imposednstruction/i nsonta llathetion amounts marine energy, with correspondingly 4000 4000 400 4000 4000 400 that consumers are expected to pay and stronger demand for UK knowhow and its Design/manufacture Design/manufacture taxpayers contribute, leading to growth, manufacturing base. Planning/development 2000 2000 200 Planning/development 2000 2000 200 but with the UK less distinctly the world Capacity leader. TheCa lowpaci tyscenario posits that Export opportunities in the higher-deployment 0 0 0 initial arrays are supported, but with a scenarios0 increase at slower rates than UK 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 20132014 20152016 201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023 sharp Government focus on value for deployment owing to the somewhat lower money, the cost reduction pathway is potential for marine energy elsewhere in Europe PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN deemed too shallow and the industrial compared to the UK. MARINE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH opportunity not large enough to justify SCENARIO support, which is withdrawn, halting Figure 4.38 shows that in the low scenario, deployment in 2018. marine employment would be slightly lower than it is now (1,447 FTEs compared to 1,724 now). As a world leader in marine technologies, There is much greater employment potential in 10000 in each scenario the UK supplies a the medium (a three-fold increase by 2023) and substantial proportion of manufactured high scenarios (a five-fold increase).

8000 Contracted components to the rest of Europe,

Permanent to support European deployment of In contrast to the previous study, the current 6000 renewables technologies (although this projections are much more cautious about the still pales in comparison to the potential rate of deployment of UK marine energy: 50–

4000 UK deployment): 700MW by 2023 compared to 1,300MW by 2021 in the lowest scenario last time, and 2,000MW in • High: 160MW; the highest case. 2000 • Medium: 100MW; • Low: 45MW. 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 FUTUDIRERE CACT PAEMPLCITYOY: MESMANTLL IN SMALL EMPLOYMENT ACROSS SMALL SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORONE SHACORTIVIETIES, HIGH GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 FUTURE CAPACITY: SMALL EMPLOYMENT ACROSS SMALL SCENARIO ONSHORE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023

MW 10000 Support and other Job MW Support and other 1000 16000 MW Decommissioning Decommissioning 10000 Support and other 10000 1000 Job MW Support and other 8000 1000 14000 16000 charts_small onshore Specialised transport 900 Specialised transport Decommissioning 800 Decommissioning Indirect 10000 1000 12000 14000 8000 High 8000 800 6000 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance charts_small onshore Specialised transport 900 Specialised transport Direct 800 Indirect 10000 700 12000 600 Medium Construction/installation High Operation/maintenance 8000 800 Construction/installation Direct 6000 Operation/maintenance 8000 6000 600 10000 Low 4000 Medium 700 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture 600 Construction/installation Construction/installation 6000 500 8000 6000400 600 Low 4000 Planning/development 4000 400 Planning/development Design/manufacture Design/manufacture 4000 2000 6000 500 400 300 Capacity Planning/development Planning/development 2000 4000 4000200 400 2000 2000 200 300 Capacity 0 0 200 2000 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013 LowMediumHigh 100 20000 200 (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 0 0 0 0 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 LowMediumHigh 100 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920202021 2022 2023 0 (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 0 0 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920202021 2022 2023

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO

Job MW Job MW Contracted 10000 1000 Job MW Support and other Support and other 10000 10000 1000 Job Permanent MW 900 Contracted 10000 1000 10000 900 Decommissioning Support and other Support and other Decommissioning 10000 10000 1000 8000 800 Permanent 900 Contracted 8000 800 Decommissioning 8000 Specialised transport 10000 Decommissioning 900 700 Specialised transport 8000 800 8000 Permanent 700 Contracted 8000 800 Operation/maintenance Specialised transport 8000 Specialised transport 6000 600 Operation/maintenance 700 6000 6000 600 8000 Permanent 700 6000 500 Construction/installation 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance Construction/installation 500 6000 6000 600 4000 400 6000 500 Construction/installation Design/manufacture 4000 4000 400 Design/manufacture Construction/installation 4000 500 300 300 4000 400 Planning/development Design/manufacture 4000 4000 400 Design/manufacture Planning/development 4000 2000 200 2000 2000 200 300 2000 300 Capacity Capacity Planning/development Planning/development 100 100 2000 200 2000 2000 200 2000 Capacity Capacity 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN GROWTH SCENARIO SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

10000

10000 8000 Contracted 8000 Permanent Contracted 6000 Permanent 6000 4000

4000 2000

2000 0

0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE FUTURE CAPACITY: OFFSHORE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO FUTURE CAPACITY: OFFSHORE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO

MW 30000 50000 25000 Support and other Job MW Support and other 30000 50000 25000 Support and other Job MW Support and other Decommissioning 25000 25000 30000 Decommissioning charts_offshore Decommissioning 40000 Indirect 20000 25000 25000 30000 Decommissioning Specialised transport charts_offshore High Specialised transport 40000 20000 25000 Indirect 20000 20000 High Specialised transport Specialised transport Direct 25000 Medium 30000 15000 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 20000 Direct 20000 20000 Medium 30000 15000 Operation/maintenance 15000 Operation/maintenance Low Construction/installation 15000 Construction/installation 20000 20000 10000 15000 Low Construction/installation Construction/installation 15000 Design/manufacture 15000 Design/manufacture 20000 10000 10000 Design/manufacture 15000 Design/manufacture 10000 10000 10000 5000 Planning/development Planning/development 10000 10000 10000 5000 Planning/development 5000 Planning/development 10000 Capacity 0 5000 Capacity 0 5000 2013 5000 0 0 2013 LowMediumHigh LowMediumHigh 0 5000 (Survey) 2013 5000 (Survey) 2023 2023 0 2013 LowMediumHigh LowMediumHigh 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (Survey) 2023 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (Survey) 2023 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019202020212022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019202020212022 2023 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO SCENARIO SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

Job MW Support and other Job MW Support and other Job MW 25000 30000 Decommissioning Job MW 25000 25000 30000 Decommissioning 25000 30000 25000 25000 25000 Contracted Specialised transport 25000 30000 Support and other Contracted 25000 Contracted Specialised transport 20000 Support and other Contracted 20000 Permanent 25000 25000 20000 Operation/maintenance 20000 20000 Decommissioning Permanent 20000 Permanent 25000 20000 20000 Permanent Operation/maintenance 20000 Decommissioning Construction/installation 20000 20000 Specialised transport 15000 15000 Construction/installation 15000 20000 Specialised transport 15000 15000 15000 15000 15000 Design/manufacture 15000 Operation/maintenance 15000 Design/manufacture 15000 Operation/maintenance 10000 10000 10000 Planning/development 15000 Construction/installation 10000 10000 10000 Planning/development 10000 10000 Construction/installation Capacity 10000 10000 10000 10000 Capacity Design/manufacture 5000 5000 5000 Design/manufacture 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 Planning/development 5000 5000 5000 Planning/development 0 Capacity 0 0 0 0 Capacity 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015201620172018 2019202020212022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015201620172018 2019202020212022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO

25000 25000 Contracted Contracted 20000 20000 Permanent Permanent 15000 15000

10000 10000

5000 5000

0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 36

EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 FUACTURETIVI TICAPES,AC HIITGHY: GR MAOWTHRINE SCENARIO ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 FUTURE CAPACITY: MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 High scenario for marine energy Figure 4.40: Direct Employment in Marine Activities, High Growth Scenario (676MW capacity in 2023; 9,148 direct FTE) MW MW 10000 Job MW 10000 charts_marine 1000Job MW charts_marine 1000 In the high scenario, UK marine High 25000 High 25000 Support and other 10000 1000 Support and other 10000 1000 deployment grows substantially, from Medium Support and other Medium Support and other 8000 Decommissioning 8000 around 12MWDeco ofmmis capacitysioning now to almost 800 Indirect 800 Indirect 20000 8000 800 Decommissioning 20000 8000 Low 800 Decommissioning Specialised transport Low 700MW by 2023,Specialis withed tran fastersport growth from Direct 6000 Direct 6000 Specialised transport 2019 onwards (more than 50MW each 600 Specialised transport Operation/maintenance 600 Operation/maintenance 15000 6000 600 15000 6000 600 Operation/maintenance year) as the technology becomes more Operation/maintenance 4000 Construction/installation 4000 Construction/installation widespread. Accelerating deployment Construction/installation 400 Construction/installation 10000 Design/manufacture 4000 400 400 10000 Design/manufacture 4000 400 in this scenario leads to strong growth 2000 Design/manufacture 2000 Design/manufacture Planning/development in design andPlanni manufacturingng/development (from 325 200 2000 200 Planning/development 200 5000 2000 200 Planning/development 5000 FTEs now to almost 2,917 by 2023). 0 0 Capacity Capacity 2013 2013 LowMediumHighDesign and manufacturing is the largest LowMediumHigh (Survey) 0 0 (Survey) 2023 0 0 0 0 2023 0 0 source of employment in 2023, followed 2013201420152016 2017 2018201920202021 2022 2023 2013201420152016 2017 2018201920202021 2022 2023 2013 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 LowMediumHigh by Operation and maintenance (1,931) (Survey) (Survey) 2023 2023 and Construction and installation (1,080) DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO (see Figure 4.40). This compares, in all ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH three cases, to current employment of FigureSMADIRE LL4.41:CT M EMPLARI PermanentNEOY ACMETIVINTTI ESIN and ,MA HIGH ContractedRINE Jobs in Marine Activities, High Growth MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE SMALL MARINE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO less than 350. ScenarioACTIVITIGRESOWTH, LOW SCGREOWTHNARIO SCENARIO

In terms of the split between permanent Job Job MW and contracted jobs, around one-third Job MW MW Job MW of current employment in the sector is 10000 10000 1000 10000 10000 1000 10000 10000 1000 10000 10000 1000 Contracted permanent in nature while, by 2023 that Contracted Support and other Support and other Support and other Support and other Permanent Permanent Decommissioning Contracted Decommissioning 8000 800 shareCont isract projecteded to grow to 50% (see 8000 8000 800 8000 Decommissioning 8000 8000 800 Decommissioning 8000 8000 800 FigurePerm anen4.41).t Specialised transport Permanent Specialised transport Specialised transport Specialised transport 6000 600 6000 6000 600 6000 60060000 600 Operation/maintenance 6000 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance Construction/installation Construction/installation Construction/installation Construction/installation 4000 4000 400 40040000 400 4000 400 4000 4000 400 4000 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture Design/manufacture Design/manufacture Planning/development Planning/development 2000 2000 200 Planning/development 2000 20020000 200 2000 200 Planning/development 2000 2000 200 Capacity Capacity Capacity Capacity

0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013201320142014201522015016 201722016018201920172020 20182021 202220192023 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 20132014 20152016 201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH MARINE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO

10000 10000

8000 Contracted 8000 Contracted

Permanent Permanent 6000 6000

4000 4000

2000 2000

0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 FUTURE CAPACITY: SMALL EMPLOYMENT ACROSS SMALL SCENARIO ONSHORE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023

MW 10000 Support and other Job MW Support and other 1000 16000 Decommissioning 10000 1000 Decommissioning 14000 8000 charts_small onshore Specialised transport 900 Specialised transport 800 Indirect 12000 High Operation/maintenance 8000 800 Direct 6000 Operation/maintenance 10000 Medium 700 600 Construction/installation Construction/installation 8000 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL 6000 600 Low 4000 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH Design/manufacture Design/manufacture ONSH6000ORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 500 FUTURE CAPACITY: SMALL EMPL400OYMENT ACROSS SMALL SCENARIO Planning/development 4000 400 Planning/development ONSHORE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 4000 2000 300 Capacity 200 2000 2000 200 0 0 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013 LowMediumHigh 100 0 (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 MW 0 0 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10000 Support and other Job MW Support and other 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920202021 2022 2023 1000 16000 Decommissioning 10000 1000 Decommissioning 14000 8000 charts_small onshore Specialised transport 900 Specialised transport 800 Indirect 12000 High PERMAN8000ENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 800 DI6000RECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance PERMANENT AND CONTRACTEDiD reJOctBS IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL 10000 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH 700 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH 600 Medium SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO Construction/installation GROWTH SCENARIO Construction/installation SCENARIO 8000 GROWTH SCENARIO 6000 600 Low 4000 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture 6000 500 400 Planning/development 4000 400 Planning/development 4000 2000 Job 300 Capacity 2000 MW 200 Job 2000 200 MW Contracted 10000 0 1000 0 Support and other Support and other 2013 10000 1000 2013 Permanent LowMediumHigh LowMediumH90ig0h 10000 100 0 10000 (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 Decommissioning 900 Decommissioning 8000 800 0 0 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Contracted 8000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920202021 2022 2023 8000 800 Specialised transport 700 Specialised transport 8000 Permanent 700 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 6000 6000 600 6000 500 Construction/installation 500 Construction/installation 4000 400 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN Design/manufacture 4000 4000 400 Design/manufacture PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 4000 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM 300 300 SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH Planning/development SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO Planning/development SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO 2000 200 2000 2000 200 2000 Capacity Capacity 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Job MW Job MW Contracted 10000 1000 Support and other Support and other 10000 1000 Permanent 900 10000 10000 Decommissioning 900 Decommissioning 8000 800 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 8000 Contracted 8000 800 Specialised transport 700 Specialised transport 8000 SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW Permanent 700 6000 GROWTH SCENARIO 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 6000 6000 600 6000 500 Construction/installation 500 Construction/installation 4000 400 Design/manufacture 4000 4000 400 Design/manufacture 4000 300 300 Planning/development Planning/development 2000 200 2000 2000 200 2000 10000 Capacity Capacity 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 8000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Contracted

Permanent 6000

4000 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW 2000 GROWTH SCENARIO

0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

10000

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE 8000 FUTURE CAPACITY: OFFSHORE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE Contracted ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO

Permanent 6000 MW 4000 30000 50000 25000 Support and other Job MW Support and other Decommissioning 25000 25000 30000 Decommissioning 2000 charts_offshore 40000 Indirect 20000 High Specialised transport Specialised transport 25000 20000 Direct 20000 0 Medium 30000 15000 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20000 15000 Low Construction/installation 15000 Construction/installation 20000 10000 Design/manufacture 15000 Design/manufacture 10000 10000 10000 5000 Planning/development Planning/development 10000 5000 Capacity DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE 0 5000 0 5000 DIRECT EMPLOYME2013NT IN OFFSHORE FUTURE CAPACITY: OFFSHORE EMPLOYMEN0 T ACROSS OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES2013, 2013 AND 2023 LowMediumHigh LowMediumHigh ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH(S GRurOWTHvey) SCENARIO 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (Survey) 2023 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019202020212022 2023

MW PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH 30000 OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH 50000 SCENARIO 25000 Support and other Job SCENARIO MW Support and other Decommissioning 25000 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE 25000 30000 Decommissioning charts_offshore ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE 40000 Indirect 20000 ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO High Specialised transport Specialised transport 25000 20000 Direct 20000 Medium 30000 15000 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 20000 15000 Low Construction/installation 15000 Construction/installation Job MW 20000 10000 Support and other Job MW Design/manufacture 15000 Design/manufacture 10000 25000 30000 Decommissioning 25000 25000 30000 25000 10000 10000 5000 Planning/development Planning/development Contracted 10000 Specialised transport Support and other Contracted 25000 5000 Capacity 20000 20000 Permanent 25000 20000 20000 0 5000 Permanent Operation/maintenance 0 Decommissioning 5000 2013 LowMediumHigh 20000 0 2013 LowMediumHigh Construction/installation (Survey) 2023 20000 Specialised transport 15000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 15000 (Survey) 2023 15000 15000 0 0 Design/manufacture Operation/maintenance 15000 15000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019202020212022 2023 10000 10000 10000 Planning/development 10000 Construction/installation PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 10000 Capacity PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 10000 OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH Design/manufacture OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH 5000 5000 5000 SCENARIO 5000 SCENARIO 5000 5000 Planning/development DIRECT E0MPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE Capacity 0 ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 AC2013TIVITI2014ES, LOW2015 GROWTH2016 SCEN2017ARIO 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015201620172018 2019202020212022 2023

Job MW Support and other PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN Job MW OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH 25000 30000 Decommissioning 25000 SCENARIO 25000 30000 25000 Specialised transport Contracted Contracted 25000 Support and other 20000 20000 Permanent 25000 20000 Operation/maintenance 20000 Decommissioning Permanent 20000 Construction/installation 20000 15000 Specialised transport 15000 15000 15000 Design/manufacture Operation/maintenance 15000 15000 10000 10000 10000 Planning/development 10000 25000 Construction/installation 10000 Capacity 10000Contracted Design/manufacture 5000 20000 5000 5000 5000 Permanent 5000 5000 Planning/development 0 15000 Capacity 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015201620172018 2019202020212022 2023 2013100002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

5000

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 0 OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO FUTURE CAPACITY: MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023

25000 Contracted MW 20000 10000 Job MW Permanent charts_marine 1000 High 25000 Support and other 10000 1000 Support and other 15000 Medium 8000 Decommissioning 800 Indirect 20000 8000 800 Decommissioning Low Specialised transport 10000 Direct 6000 Specialised transport 600 Operation/maintenance 15000 6000 600 5000 Operation/maintenance 4000 Construction/installation Construction/installation 400 Design/manufacture 0 10000 4000 400 2000 Design/manufacture 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Planning/development 200 5000 2000 200 Planning/development 0 Capacity 2013 LowMediumHigh 37 0 0 0 0 (Survey) 2023 2013201420152016 2017 2018201920202021 2022 2023 2013 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE LowMediumHigh EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MARINE (Survey) 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO FUTURE CAPACITY: MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE Medium deployment scenario ACFigureTIVITIES, 4.42: MEDIUM Direct GROWT EmploymentH SCENARIO in Marine Activities, Medium Growth Scenario PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL MARINE ACTIVITIES, HIGH (328MW capacity in 2023; 5,631 MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE MW SCENARIO ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO direct FTE) 10000 Job MW charts_marine 1000 High 25000 Support and other 10000 1000 The medium deployment scenario Support and other Medium 8000 Decommissioning Job 800 Indirect for marine energy projects a level of MW Job MW Low 20000 8000 800 Decommissioning 10000 installed capacity that is around half that 10000 1000 Specialised transport Direct 10000 10000 1000 Contracted 6000 Specialised transport Support and other 600 of the high scenario (328MW compared SuOppporerattio andn/ma otheinter nance 15000 Permanent 6000 600 Decommissioning 8000 800 Contracted Operation/maintenance 8000 to 676MW). Slow growth is projected to Decommissioning 8000 8000 800 4000 Construction/installation Permanent Specialised transport 2020, followed by more rapid growth of Construction/installation 400 10000 SpDeecsiiagnlis/medanuf transacporturet 4000 400 6000 50–70MW in the remaining three years of 6000 600 6000 6000 600 Operation/maintenance 2000 Design/manufacture the period. OpPleratanniiongn//dmaevinelteopnancmeent Construction/installation 200 5000 Construction/installation 2000 200 Planning/development 4000 4000 400 4000 400 4000 Design/manufacture Employment in marine energy in the 0 Capacity 2013 LowMediumHigh Design/manufacture (Survey) 0 0 Planning/development 0 0 medium scenario grows to 5,631 FTEs 2000 2023 200 2000 200 2000 Planning/development 2000 2013201420152016 2017 2018201920202021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 LowMediumHcomparedigh to the current level of 1,724. Capacity (Survey) 2023 Capacity 0 0 0 0 0 0 DIRECT EMPL2013 OYMEN2014T IN MARI2015NE 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020The emphasis2021 2022 in this2023 scenario 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 20132014 20152016 201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023 ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN is on employment in design and PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL MARINE ACTIVITIES, HIGH MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE GROWTH SCENARIO manufacturing (including export sales Figure 4.43: PermanentSCENARIO and Contracted Jobs in Marine Activities, Medium Growth ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN Scenario MARINE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH to other countries deploying marine SCENARIO energy systems) and operation and maintenance to support installed Job MWcapacity in the UK (see Figure 4.42). Job MW 10000 10000 1000 10000 10000 1000 Contracted Support and other At 1,531 FTEs,Suppor employmentt and other in design Permanent 10000 Decommissioning 8000 800 Contracted 8000 and manufacturingDecommissi ison almosting five times 8000 8000 800 larger than current levels, with more of Permanent Specialised transport 8000 ContractedSpecialised transport 6000 6000 60that0 employment in manufacturing rather 6000 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Permanent than R&D-intensiveOperation/ madesign.intenanc eThere are 6000 Construction/installation projected toCo bens tr1,360uction/i nsFTEstallati onemployed 4000 4000 400 4000 4000 400 in operation and maintenance by 2023, Design/manufacture 4000 Design/manufacture to support the 328MW of capacity in Planning/development 2000 2000 200 Planning/development 2000 2000 200 place by that time. This is a substantially Capacity 2000 Capacity lower jobs-per-MW figure than currently, 0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 reflecting rapid increases in efficiency as 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 20132014 20152016 201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 the sector matures. 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN Employment in construction and MARINE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO installation almost doubles to 2023, from 347 FTEs now to 679.

As with the high scenario, the split of permanent to contracted jobs in 2023 10000 is 50:50, compared to one-third of jobs relating to contracted activities at

8000 Contracted present (see Figure 4.43).

Permanent 6000

4000

2000

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 MW 10000 FUTURE CAPACITY: SMALL EMPLOYMENT ACROSS SMALL SCENARIO Support and other Job MW Support and other ONSHORE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 1000 16000 Decommissioning 10000 1000 Decommissioning 14000 8000

charts_small onshore Specialised transport 900 Specialised transport 800 Indirect 12000 High Operation/maintenance 8000 800 Direct 6000 Operation/maintenance MW 10000 700 10000 Medium Support and other Jo600b MW Support and other Construction/installation Construction/installation 1000 16000 8000 6000 600 Decommissioning Low 4000 10000 1000 Decommissioning Design/manufacture Design/manufacture 6000 500 14000 8000 400 charts_small onshore Specialised transport 900 Specialised transport 800 Indirect Planning/development 4000 400 Planning/development 12000 4000 2000 8000 800 High Operation/maintenance Capacity Direct 6000 Operation/maintenance 300 10000 200 2000 Medium 700 600 Construction/installation Construction/installation 2000 200 8000 6000 600 0 0 Low 4000 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013 LowMediumHigh 100 Design/manufacture Design/manufacture 6000 0 500 (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 400 0 0 Planning/development 40002013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4020210 2022 Pl2023anning/development 4000 2000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920202021 2022 2023 300 Capacity 200 2000 2000 200 0 0 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013 LowMediumHigh 100 0 (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 0 0 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 2013 20142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920202021 2022 2023 ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH Job MW SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO Job MW GROWTH SCENARIO Contracted 10000 1000 Support and other Support and other 10000 1000 Permanent 900 10000 10000 Decommissioning 900 Decommissioning 8000 800 8000 Contracted 8000 800 Specialised transport Job MW 700 Specialised transport 8000 Permanent 700 Job MW Contracted 10000 1000 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance Support and other 6000 600 Support and other 10000 1000 6000 Permanent 10000 6000 900 500 Construction/installation 500 Construction/installation 10000 Decommissioning 900 Decommissioning 8000 800 4000 400 Contracted 8000 800 Design/manufacture 4000 4000 400 Design/manufacture 8000 4000 Specialised transport 700 Specialised transport 8000 700 300 300 Permanent Planning/development Planning/development 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 6000 600 2000 200 2000 2000 200 6000 2000 Capacity Capacity 6000 500 Construction/installation 500 Construction/installation 100 100 4000 400 0 0 0 Design/manufacture 4000 4000 400 Design/manufacture 0 0 4000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 300 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020300 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Planning/development Planning/development 2000 200 2000 2000 200 2000 Capacity Capacity 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 201420152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

10000

8000 Contracted 10000 Permanent 6000

8000 Contracted 4000 Permanent 6000 2000

4000 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2000

0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE FUTURE CAPACITY: OFFSHORE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE FUTURE CAPACITY: OFFSHORE EMPLOYMENT ACROSS OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 DIREMWCT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO 30000 50000 25000 Support and other Job MW Support and other Decommissioning MW 25000 25000 30000 Decommissioning charts_offshore 40000 Indirect 20000 30000 High Specialised transport Specialised transport Support and other Job 25000 50000 25000 20000 MW Support and other Direct 20000 Medium 15000 Operation/maintenance Decommissioning 30000 Operation/maintenance 25000 25000 30000 Decommissioning charts_offshore 20000 40000 Indirect 20000 15000 Low Construction/installation Construction/installation High Specialised transport Specialised transport 15000 25000 20000 10000 20000 20000 Direct Design/manufacture 15000 Design/manufacture Medium 30000 15000 Operation/maintenance 10000 Operation/maintenance 20000 5000 10000 15000 10000 Planning/development Planning/development Low Construction/installation 15000 Construction/installation 10000 20000 10000 5000 Capacity Design/manufacture 15000 Design/manufacture 0 5000 10000 0 5000 10000 LowMediumHigh 2013 LowMediumHigh 10000 5000 Planning/development 0 Planning/development 2013 10000 (Survey) 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (Survey) 2023 5000 Capacity 0 0 0 0 5000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019202020212022 2023 2013 5000 0 2013 LowMediumHigh LowMediumHigh (Survey) 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (Survey) 2023 PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANE0 NT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN 0 OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH OFFSHO2013RE AC2014TIVI2TI015ES,2 HI016GH2017 GRO201WTH82 019202020212022 2023 SCENARIO SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO SCENARIO

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO Job MW Support and other Job MW 25000 30000 Decommissioning 25000 25000 Job MW 25000 30000 Contracted Support and other Specialised transport Support and other Contracted 25000 Job MW 25000 30000 20000 20000 Permanent Decommissioning 25000 20000 25000 Permanent Operation/maintenance 25000 30000 25000 20000 Decommissioning Contracted Specialised transport 20000 Support and other Contracted 25000 Construction/installation 2000150000 20000 Specialised transport 15000 20000 25000 15000 Permanent 20000 Permanent Operation/maintenance 15000 20000 Decommissioning 15000 Design/manufacture 20000 Operation/maintenance Construction/installation 15000 20000 10000 Planning/development 15000 Specialised transport 15000 1500100000 10000 15000 10000 Construction/installation Design/manufacture 10000 Capacity Operation/maintenance 15000 10000 15000 Design/manufacture 10000 10000 100050000 Planning/development 5000 5000 10000 Construction/installation 5000 5000 10000 5000 Planning/development 10000 Capacity Design/manufacture 5000 5000 0 Capacity 0 5000 0 0 5000 5000 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 5000 Planning/development 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015201620172018 2019202020212022 2023 0 Capacity 0 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015201620172018 2019202020212022 2023

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN OFFSHORE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO

25000 Contracted 25000 20000 Permanent Contracted 20000 Permanent 15000

15000 10000

10000 5000

5000 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO FUTURE CAPACITY: MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 EMPLOYMENT ACROSS MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023 ACTIVITIES, HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO FUTURE CAPACITY: MARINE ACTIVITIES, 2013 AND 2023

MW 10000 Job MW charts_marine 1000 High 25000 10000 Job MW Support and other 10000 1000 charts_marine 1000 High 25000 Support and other Support and other 10000 Medi1000um 8000 Decommissioning 800 Support and other Indirect Medium 8000 20000 8000 800 Decommissioning Decommissioning Low Specialised transport 800 Indirect 20000 8000 800 Decommissioning Direct 6000 Low Specialised transport Specialised transport Direct 600 Operation/maintenance 6000 Specialised transport 15000 6000 600 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance 15000 6000 600 4000 Construction/installation Operation/maintenance Construction/installation Construction/installation 4000 400 10000 Design/manufacture 4000 400 Construction/installation 400 10000 Design/manufacture 4000 400 2000 Design/manufacture Planning/development 2000 Design/manufacture Planning/development 200 5000 2000 200 Planning/development 200 5000 2000 200 Planning/development 0 Capacity 0 Capacity 2013 LowMediumHigh 0 0 2013 LowMediumHigh 0 0 (Survey) 2023 0 0 2013201420152016 2017 2018201920202021 2022 2023 0 0 (Survey) 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 LowMediumHigh 2013201420152016 2017 2018201920202021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 2013 LowMediumHigh 38 (Survey) 2023 (Survey) 2023 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN SMALL MARINE ACTIVITIES, HIGH MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE SMALL MARINE ACTIVITIES, HIGH MARINE ACTIVITIES, MEDIUM GROWTH DIRECTGR EMPLOWTHOY SCMEENARNT INIO MARINE SCENARIO ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO GROWTH SCENARIO SCENARIO Low deployment scenario (56MW FigureACTIVITI 4.44:ES, LOW Direct GROWTH Employment SCENARIO in Marine Activities, Low Growth Scenario capacity in 2023; 1,447 direct FTE)

In the low scenario, marine deployment Job MW Job MW Job MW Job MW grows to just 56MW in 2023, compared 10000 10000 1000 10000 10000 1000 10000 10000 1000 10000 10000 Contracted 1000 Support and other Contracted to around 12MW now. Due to continuing Support and other Support and other Support and other Permanent Decommissioning Permanent uncertainty around levels of support, 8000 800 Contracted Contracted 8000 Decommissioning Decommissioning 8000 8000 800 8000 8000 800 8000 8000 800 Decommissioning this is a substantially less optimistic Permanent Specialised transport Permanent Specialised transport Specialised transport Specialised transport outlook than any of the scenarios from 6000 6000 600 6000 600 Operation/maintenance 6000 6000 600 Operation/maintenance 6000 6000 the previous Working for a Green Britain 6000 600 Operation/maintenance Operation/maintenance Construction/installation Construction/installation study where, in the low case, capacity Construction/installation Construction/installation 4000 4000 400 4000 400 4000 4000 400 4000 400 4000 4000 was projected to exceed 1GW by 2020. Design/manufacture Design/manufacture Design/manufacture Design/manufacture In this scenario, employment in 2023 will Planning/development Planning/development 2000 200 2000 200 2000 2000 200 Planning/development 2000 20020000 200 Planning/development 2000 likely be lower than the levels seen now, Capacity Capacity Capacity although a much higher proportion of Capacity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 those jobs will be permanent in nature, 00 0 0 2013201320142014201522015016 201722016018201920172020 22018021 202220192023 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 20132014 20152016 201720182019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020to support2021 operational2022202 3capacity.

PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN In the new low scenario, between 5MW PERMANENT AND CONTRACTED JOBS IN MARINE ACTIVITIES, LOW GROWTH and 10MW of new capacity is installed FigureMARINE 4.45: ACTI PermanentVITIES, LOW andGROWTH Contracted Jobs in Marine, Low Growth Scenario SCENARIO SCENARIO each year until 2018, at which point no new devices are deployed in the UK: there is no requirement for planning and development or construction and 10000 installation in the years that follow (see 10000 Figure 4.44). 8000 Contracted 8000 Contracted After 2019, the number of permanent Permanent Permanent 6000 jobs in UK marine energy stabilises at 6000 1,005 FTEs, while employment in design 4000 and manufacturing is sustained entirely 4000 by overseas markets for UK production

2000 (see Figure 4.45). In this scenario, 2000 by 2023, two-thirds of UK marine

0 employment is permanent in nature, a 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 reversal of the current situation. 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 CHARTS - SKILLS

Figure 5.1: Distribution of Employers by Technology Sector (%) Figure 5.2: Distribution of Employers by Activity (%) Figure 5.3: Occupational Structure of Employment 5.4

None of these

5.5 5.5 --- VERSION 2!!!!!

Semi-skilled or operative job Semi -skilled or operative job Whole economy

Renewables Skilled manual or technical jobs Skilled manual or technical jobs

Whole economy Technical professional jobs Technical professional jobs Renewables

Management Management

01020304050 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40

% of female employment % of female employment

39 CHARTS - PROJECTIONS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS ACROSS WIND AND MARINE WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 ENERGY, 2013 5. Employment by Nation charts 2013

36% Onshore: large 25% Site Planning or development 27% Construction & Installation 15% Construction & Installation 11% Manufacture or manufacturing design 5% Onshore: medium 16% Operation and maintenance 9% Operation and maintenance 27% Construction & Installation 30% Other direct 13% Onshore: small 57% Other direct The profile of employment by technology is similar in 16% Operation and maintenance 46% Indirect 37% Offshore 18% Support services and other activities England and Scotland, with just over one-third9% Ma rineof the 1% Decommissioning direct jobs associated with large onshore activities. 2% Specialised Transport

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS In Wales, more than half of the sector’s Figure 5.1: Direct Employment Across Wind and Marine Energy by Nation, 2013 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 employment is associated with large onshore schemes, while in Northern Ireland, the share is just over 40%. Onshore wind (at all scales) is by far the most important source of wind 12000 and marine employment in these two 62% England Marine 28% Site Planning or development 29% Site Planning or development 10000 nations. This is followed by offshore 4% Wales Offshore 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design 12% Manufacture or manufacturing design Onshore: small wind (though not nearly to the same 21% Scotland 8000 20% Construction & Installation 24% Construction & Installation Onshore: medium extent as in England or Scotland). 4% N.Ireland 16% Operation and maintenance 15% Operation and maintenance 6000 Onshore: large 9% Mobile 24% Support services and other activities 17% Support services and other activities Onshore wind (at all scales) accounts Survey Results 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 4000 for less than 60% of total wind and from mid-2013 1% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport marine-sector employment in England 2000 and Scotland, owing to relatively higher diversity in the technology mix. By Total employment: 18,645 FTE 0 Total employment: 6,609 FTE Total employment: 838 FTE contrast, in Wales the share approaches Survey Results from mid-2013 England WalesScotlandN.Ireland Mobile Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 80%, and in Northern Ireland the share is closer to 70%. unsurprisingly, highest in Scotland, Of the employment classified as mobile, DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE Within onshore wind, small onshore is SwhereCALE ON overSHOR E15% ACTIV ofITIE windS, 2013 and marine and thus not connected to any single ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013 the next largest employer (10–20% of energy sector employment is marine- nation (but still within Great Britain total employment in each nation) while specific. In England the share is and Northern Ireland), most of the medium-scale onshore wind remains somewhat lower, at 9%. Currently, employment (almost 75%) is accounted relatively undeveloped, at less than marine technologies have a limited for by offshore wind, followed by large 10% of wind and marine employment presence in Wales and Northern Ireland, onshore wind (just over 15%). in each nation. As a proportion, the accounting for less than 4% of wind and 29% Site Planning or development 19% Site Planning or development 27% Site Planning or development latest survey suggests that medium- marine energy employment in each of 13% Manufacture or manufacturing design 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design 19% Manufacture or manufacturing design scale onshore wind is somewhat more these nations. 24% Construction & Installation 36% Construction & Installation 20% Construction & Installation prevalent in Northern Ireland than in the 15% Operation and maintenance 18% Operation and maintenance 16% Operation and maintenance other nations, although the technology Overall, employment in wind and marine 16% Support services and other activities 14% Support services and other activities 16% Support services and other activities remains underdeveloped when energy accounts for a relatively higher 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning compared to other forms of wind and share of total employment in Scotland 2% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 1% Specialised Transport marine energy. than it does in the other three nations of the UK. The share of employment accounted Total employment: 2,464 FTE Total employment: 6,830 FTE Total employment: 1,724 FTE for by marine technologies is, Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED

6. Other Characteristics of the Labour Market This section draws on the detailed results from the company survey to examine other important labour market issues facing the sector.

CHARTS - SKILLS

Figure 5.2: Distribution of Employers by Activity (%) 6.1 Company structure FigureFigure 5.1: Distribution 6.1: Distribution of Employers of Employers by Technology by Technology Sector (%) Sector (%) Figure 5.3: Occupational Structure of Employment 5.4

Figure 6.1 shows the structure of firms in the renewable sector as reported None of these through the survey. It shows that most Marine Support Services Other employees incl. administrative Outsource work firms are engaged in the onshore wind support staff Offshore wind Increase workload for other staff sub-sector (around 70% of employers 2010 Specialised transport reported that they were engaged in this Semi-skilled or operative job Small onshore wind 2013 Maintenance Have difﬁculties introducing new working … type of activity). The large onshore wind sector accounts for the most employers Installation Skilled manual or technical jobs Increase operating costs Medium onshore wind 2010 All sectors in the onshore sub-sector. Just over Construction 2013 Renewables Have difﬁculties meeting quality standards 60% of firms reported that they were Large scale onshore wind Technical professional jobs engaged in the offshore sector, and just Manufacture and manufacturing design Delay developing new products or services Any onshore wind Management under 40% in the marine sector. Site planning and development Lose business or orders to competitors 0102030405060708090 0102030405060 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Compared to the 2010 survey, the latest 0% 20%40% 60%80% 100% % of employers % of employers % of employment survey suggests greater diversification % of employers in the wind and marine energy sector, with firms more likely to be engaged in multiple technologies compared to three Table 6.1: Employer Involvement in Multiple Technologies years ago. The rise of offshore and marine 5.5 Onshore Offshore Marine 5.5 --- VERSION 2!!!!! technologies also means that, relatively Onshore - 60% 52% speaking, onshore wind is not as dominant Offshore 53% - 85% a technology as it once was. This Marine 29% 54% - explains the reduction in the proportion Semi-skilled or operative job Semi -skilled or operative job Each column indicates the percentage of employers in that technology engaged in one or of employers involved in onshore wind, Whole economy more of the others. from 80% last time, to 70% now (although Renewables Sources: RenewableUK/EU Skills Survey of Renewable Energy Organisations 2013 (CE, IER, IFF). there has still been an overall increase Skilled manual or technical jobs Skilled manual or technical jobs in employment) and the increases in the Whole economy share of employers engaged in: ThisTe diversificationchnical profession alis j obsevident in Table offshore wind and marine energy: 85% Technical professional jobs Renewables 6.1, which shows the percentage of of employers engaged in marine energy • Offshore wind: 62% now compared employers by broad technology that are also engaged in offshore wind Management to 41% in 2010; are involved in otherManage technologies.ment For development. • Marine energy: 39% now compared example, 53% of employers engaged 01020304050 to 16% in 2010, a substantial in onshore wind are also involved05 in 10 15 The20 shift25 in emphasis30 35 away40 from increase in the proportion of firms in offshore wind. Table 6.1 also highlights% of a fe maonshorele employ windment and towards a more % of female employment this technology segment. somewhat larger overlap between balanced portfolio of wind and marine

9% Marine 1% Decommissioning

2% Specialised Transport

12000

Survey Results 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 4000 from mid-2013 1% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 2000

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013

29% Site Planning or development 19% Site Planning or development 27% Site Planning or development

13% Manufacture or manufacturing design 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design 19% Manufacture or manufacturing design

24% Construction & Installation 36% Construction & Installation 20% Construction & Installation

15% Operation and maintenance 18% Operation and maintenance 16% Operation and maintenance

16% Support services and other activities 14% Support services and other activities 16% Support services and other activities

1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning

2% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 1% Specialised Transport

Total employment: 2,464 FTE Total employment: 6,830 FTE Total employment: 1,724 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED

CHARTS - SKILLS

Figure 5.1: Distribution of Employers by Technology Sector (%)technologies has potential implications FigureFigure 5.2: 6.2: Distribution Distribution of Employers of Employers by Activity by Activity (%) (%) Figure 5.3: Occupational Structure of Employment 5.4 for skills requirements, as each sector engages in a slightly different mix of development activities. None of these

Marine Support Services Other employees incl. administrative Outsource work Figure 6.2 shows the types of activity support staff Offshore wind Increase workload for other staff in which employers are engaged.2010 It Specialised transport Semi-skilled or operative job Small onshore wind shows that the percentage2013 of employers Maintenance Have difﬁculties introducing new working … engaged in all activities has increased Installation Skilled manual or technical jobs Increase operating costs Medium onshore wind since 2010, suggesting that the 2010 All sectors sector has become more vertically Construction 2013 Renewables Have difﬁculties meeting quality standards Large scale onshore wind Technical professional jobs integrated. In particular it shows that Manufacture and manufacturing design Delay developing new products or services Any onshore wind in percentage terms, a much greater Management Site planning and development Lose business or orders to competitors 0102030405share06 of employers0708 are09 now0 engaged 0102030405060 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 in installation and maintenance than in 0% 20%40% 60%80% 100% % of employers % of employers % of employment 2010. The data suggest that employers % of employers are likely to have become more diverse in the activities in which they engage compared to three years ago. The data 5.5 5.5 --- VERSION 2!!!!! clearly show that employers are involved Table 6.2: Activities of Organisations in the Renewable Energy Sector According to Type of Technology in multiple activities (for example, of those engaged in manufacturing, 44% All Large Medium Small Offshore Marine All firms onshore onshore onshore onshore wind energy were also involved in construction wind wind wind wind Semi-skilled or operative job activities, 64% in installation, 58% in Semi -skilled or operative job Site 55% 54% 58% 57% 37% 44%Whole econom48%y maintenance, and 46% in operations). planning and Renewables Skilled manual or technical jobs developmentSkilled manual or technical jobs Table 6.2 shows the distribution of Manufacture 18% 16% 17% 26% 28% 34% 23% employers by the typesWhol eof ec activityonomy in and manufac- Technical professional jobs Technical professional jobs which they are engaged.Renewa Itbl esreveals turing design that firms are engaged in multiple Construction 33% 33% 31%% 35% 34% 35% 33% Management Management activities. Employers in the onshore Installation 34% 34% 32% 39% 43% 44% 40% sector are more likely to be engaged in Maintenance 33% 33%0132%020339% 0440%0539%0 38% 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40 site planning and development (55% of Site Operation 33% 34% 25% 28% 28% 34% 35% % of female emplemployers)oyment compared with the offshore % of female employment Specialised 9% 10% 5% 11% 16% 16% 13% sector (37%) and the marine sector transport (44%). Other than this, there is relatively Support 40% 42% 40% 41% 48% 50% 43% CHARTS - PROJECTIONS little variation in the data, except that Services DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT the offshore and marine sub-sectors are WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS DISources:RECT EMPLOY RenewableUK/EUMENT ACROSS Skills Survey of Renewable Energy Organisations 2013 (CE, IER, IFF). ACROSS WIND AND MARINE WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 more likely to be engaged in installation WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 ENERGY, 2013 and maintenance.

charts 2013 Overall, around half of all employers Table 6.3: Activities of Organisations in the Renewable Energy Sector According to Size of in the renewable sector employ fewer Employer (Column Percentages) 36% Onshore: large 25% Site Planning or development 27% Construction & Installation 15% Construction & Installation than 25 people, and over 80% have 250 All Large Medium Small Offshore Marine All firms 11% Manufacture or manufacturing design 9% Operation and maintenance employees5% Onorsh lessore: me (84%).dium The percentage onshore onshore onshore onshore wind energy 16% Operation and maintenance wind wind wind wind 27% Construction & Installation 30% Other direct of larger13% employersOnshore: sm operatingall in the 57% Other direct Number of employees: 16% Operation and maintenance 46% Indirect industry37% hasO ffsincreasedhore since 2010, with 18% Support services and other activities 16% of employers now reporting that 0–24 59% 55% 55% 58% 47% 44% 56% 9% Marine 1% Decommissioning they employed more than 250 employees 25–249 25% 27% 25% 25% 31% 29% 28% 2% Specialised Transport compared to less than 10% in 2010. More than 250 16% 18% 19% 17% 22% 27% 16% Each column gives the breakdown of employers by size for that technology. In general, there is little variation in Total employment: 18,645 FTE Sources: RenewableUK / EU Skills Survey of Renewable EnergyTotal Organisations employment: 2013 18,645 (CE, IER,FTE IFF). Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 34,373 FTE the sizeSurvey of Resultsfirms fromengaged mid-2013 in onshore Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 technologies, while employers in the offshore and marine sectors are likely to be larger (see Table 6.3). DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013

12000

Survey Results 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 4000 from mid-2013 1% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 2000

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013

29% Site Planning or development 19% Site Planning or development 27% Site Planning or development

13% Manufacture or manufacturing design 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design 19% Manufacture or manufacturing design

24% Construction & Installation 36% Construction & Installation 20% Construction & Installation

15% Operation and maintenance 18% Operation and maintenance 16% Operation and maintenance

16% Support services and other activities 14% Support services and other activities 16% Support services and other activities

1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning

2% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 1% Specialised Transport

Total employment: 2,464 FTE Total employment: 6,830 FTE Total employment: 1,724 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED

Figure 5.1: Distribution of Employers by Technology Sector (%) Figure 5.2: Distribution of Employers by Activity (%) 6.2 Occupational structure FigureFigure 5.3: Occupational6.3: Occupational Struct ureStructure of Employmen of Employmentt 5.4

Respondents to the survey were asked how many people were employed in the None of these

Marine following occupations: Support Services Other employees incl. administrative Outsource work support staff Offshore wind Increase workload for other staff 2010 Specialised transport • management jobs, which would Semi-skilled or operative job Small onshore wind 2013 Maintenance typically require employees to Have difﬁculties introducing new working … be qualified to degree level or Installation Skilled manual or technical jobs Increase operating costs Medium onshore wind equivalent; 2010 All sectors Construction • technical professional2013 jobs, such Renewables Have difﬁculties meeting quality standards Large scale onshore wind Technical professional jobs as professional engineers, which Manufacture and manufacturing design Delay developing new products or services Any onshore wind would typically require employees Management Site planning and development to be qualified to degree level or Lose business or orders to competitors 0102030405060708090 0102030405060 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 equivalent; 0% 20%40% 60%80% 100% % of employers % of empl• oyerskilleds manual or technical jobs, % of employment % of employers where employees would typically be qualified through an advanced Apprenticeship or equivalent; 5.5 5.5 --- VERSION 2!!!!! • semi-skilled or operative jobs, where Table 6.4: Occupational Structure of the Renewable Sector by Activity employees would have a lower level Manage- Technical Skilled Semi- Other of qualification than those discussed ment jobs profession- manual or skilled or employ- al jobs technical operative ees incl. above; jobs job administra- Semi-skilled or operative job Semi -skilled or operative job • other employees, including tive support administrativeWhole ec supportonomy staff. staff Renewables Site planning or 34% 48% 6% 3% 9% Skilled manual or technical jobs Skilled manual or technical jobs Figure 6.3 shows the occupational development structure of employment in the Whole economy Manufacture or 25% 46% 10% 8% 11% Technical professional jobs Technical professional jobs renewable sector, and reveals the manufacturing Renewables relative dependence of the sector upon design people working in professional and Construction 31% 38% 12% 7% 11% Management Management associate professional occupations. Installation 30% 38% 13% 9% 10%

01020304In general,05 the0 data reveals that Maintenance 28% 40% 17% 7% 8% 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40 the occupational profile of the new Site operation 32% 39% 12% 7% 10% % of female employment % of female employmerenewablent sector is skewed towards Specialised trans- 31% 42% 12% 4% 11% more relatively high-skill occupations, port especially in its reliance upon technician/ Support services 30% 47% 12% 4% 6% CHARTS - PROJECTIONS professional jobs. DIREAverageCT EMPL for OallYMEN re- T ACRO33% SS 42% 11% 5% 9% DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS newables activities ACROSS WIND AND MARINE WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 The occupational structure of ENERGY, 2013 Sources: RenewableUK/EU Skills Survey of Renewable Energy Organisations 2013 (CE, IER, IFF). employment varies according to the type of renewable energy in which the charts 2013 employer is engaged. The latest survey reveals: Table 6.4 provides data on the 36% Onshore: large 25% Site Planning or development 15% Construction & Installation occupational structure by the type of 27% Construction & Installation 11% Manufacture or manufacturing design 5% Onshore: medium • The relative dependency of large activity in which employers are engaged. 16% Operation and maintenance 9% Operation and maintenance 27% Construction & Installation 30% Other direct 13% Onshore: small and medium onshore and marine The table shows that: 57% Other direct 16% Opemployerseration and ma inontenanc peoplee working 46% Indirect 37% Offshore 18% Suinppor professionalt services and ot andher act associateivities • Site planning, manufacturing/ 9% Marine 1% Deprofessionalcommissioning occupations; manufacturing design and support 2% • SpTheeciali serelativelyd Transport high share of services have a relatively high people working in skilled trades demand for people working in occupations in the offshore sector; technical/professional occupations; Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total• employment:The relatively 18,645 low FT Epercentage of and Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 34,373 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 people working in semi-skilled • Maintenance activities are relatively occupations across all types of dependent upon people working in technology. skilled trades jobs.

12000

Survey Results 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 4000 from mid-2013 1% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 2000

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013

29% Site Planning or development 19% Site Planning or development 27% Site Planning or development

13% Manufacture or manufacturing design 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design 19% Manufacture or manufacturing design

24% Construction & Installation 36% Construction & Installation 20% Construction & Installation

15% Operation and maintenance 18% Operation and maintenance 16% Operation and maintenance

16% Support services and other activities 14% Support services and other activities 16% Support services and other activities

1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning

2% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 1% Specialised Transport

Total employment: 2,464 FTE Total employment: 6,830 FTE Total employment: 1,724 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED

7. Labour market challenges

CHARTS - SKILLS

Figure 5.1: Distribution of Employers by Technology Sector (%) Figure 5.2: Distribution of Employers by Activity (%) Figure 5.3: Occupational Structure of Employment 7.1 Hard-to-fill vacancies 5.4 Figure 7.1: Impact of Hard-to-fill Vacancies on Organisational Performance

Employers were asked if they had had any vacancies over the past 12 months None of these

Marine which had proved hard to fill. Overall, Support Services Other employees incl. administrative Outsource work support staff 37% of employers had experienced Offshore wind Increase workload for other staff 2010 Specialised transport hard-to-fill vacancies (HtFVs), compared Semi-skilled or operative job with 26% in 2010 (see Table 7.1). On Small onshore wind 2013 Maintenance Have difﬁculties introducing new working … average, these employers each had just Installation Skilled manual or technical jobs Increase operating costs Medium onshore wind 2010 under six vacanciesA llwhich sectors had proved Construction 2013 hard to fill (comparedRenewa tobl 2.5es in 2010). Have difﬁculties meeting quality standards Large scale onshore wind Technical professional jobs Manufacture and manufacturing design Delay developing new products or services The industry has had around 1,000 Any onshore wind Management Site planning and development hard-to-fill vacancies over the past Lose business or orders to competitors 0102030405060708090 0102030405060 0510 15 20 25 year30 35(equivalent40 45 to around 5.7% of all 0% 20%40% 60%80% 100% % of employers % of employers % of employmeemploymentnt in the renewable sector). Of companies which had HtFVs, 77% % of employers of these (which is equivalent to 30% of all employers) had experienced HtFVs Table 7.1: Incidence of Hard-to-Fill Vacancies 5.5 5.5 --- VERSION 2!!!!! for technical professional staff. This is more or less the same as in 2010, when All Large Medium Small Offshore Marine All 30% of all employers reported that they onshore onshore onshore onshore wind energy firms wind wind wind wind had experienced difficulties recruiting technical/professional staff. Hard-to-fill Semi-skilled or operative job Semi -skilled or operative job vacancies Whole economy Yes, in the last 34% 36% 31% 28% 39% 47% 37% In general, when employers experienced Renewables 12 months Skilled manual or technical jobs Skilled manual or technical jobs HtFVs, most reported that these Average number 5.2 7.2 7.7 5.7 were due to applicants lacking the of HtFVs where Whole economy skills, qualifications, or experience Technical professional jobs Technical professional jobs companies have Renewables to undertake the job. And where HtFVs HtFVs arose, they were seen as being Estimated Num- 485 781 588 972 Management Management damaging to the business, especially ber of HtFVs in relation to increasing the workload Occupational 01020304050 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40 on other employees, but also in losing characteristics of HtFVs % of female employment % of female employment business to competitors (see Figure 7.1). The underlying causes of HtFVs in the Management 46% 40% 41% 37% jobs industry could not be determined from the survey but, given the rapid growth Technical pro- 77% 81% 84% 81% CHARTS - PROJECTIONS fessional jobs DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS of the industry, it would be reasonable DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS SkilledACROS manualS WIND AND16% MARINE 17% 14% 15% WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 to attribute them, at least in part, to a WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 or technicianENER GY, 2013 fast-growing skills demand continuing jobs to outpace supply. In an industry Semi-skilled or 2% 3% 5% 2% characterised by many small firms, this charts 2013 operative jobs puts forward a case for more targeted Other employ- 4% 7% 7% 6% 36% Onshore: large 25% Site Planning or development 27%measuresConstruc totion improve & Installation skills provision. ees including 15% Construction & Installation 11% Manufacture or manufacturing design admin support 5% Onshore: medium 16% Operation and maintenance 9% Operation and maintenance staff 27% Construction & Installation The UK-wide Employers Skills Survey 30% Other direct 57% Other direct 13% Onshore: small Excludes employers which fall into the ‘Others’ category, but these are included in the total. 16% Operation and maintenance 2011 reported that overall, 31% of HtFVs 46% Indirect The number of hard-to-fill vacancies sums to more than in ‘all firms column’ because employ- 37% Offshore 18% in the economy were in professional/ Support services and other activities ers operate in more than one technology sector 9% Marine 1% Decommissioning associate professional jobs, and 15% Sources: RenewableUK/EU Skills Survey of Renewable Energy Organisations 2013 (CE, IER, IFF). 2% Specialised Transport

12000

Survey Results 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 4000 from mid-2013 1% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 2000

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013

29% Site Planning or development 19% Site Planning or development 27% Site Planning or development

13% Manufacture or manufacturing design 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design 19% Manufacture or manufacturing design

24% Construction & Installation 36% Construction & Installation 20% Construction & Installation

15% Operation and maintenance 18% Operation and maintenance 16% Operation and maintenance

16% Support services and other activities 14% Support services and other activities 16% Support services and other activities

1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning

2% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 1% Specialised Transport

Total employment: 2,464 FTE Total employment: 6,830 FTE Total employment: 1,724 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED

Figure 5.1: Distribution of Employers by Technology Sector (%) Figure 5.2: Distribution of Employers by Activity (%) Figure 5.3: Occupational Structure of Employment 5.4

None of these

5.5 were in skilled trade occupations. The 5.5 ---Figure VERSION 7.2: 2!!!!!Percentage of Employment Accounted for by Women method used to calculate HtFVs in the Employers Skills Survey is different to that used in the renewable survey,

Semi-skilled or operative job but it does illustrate that a relatively Semi -skilled or operative job large share of HtFVs in the economy Whole economy as a whole – just under half – are in Renewables Skilled manual or technical jobs occupations upon which the renewable Skilled manual or technical jobs energy sector is particularly dependent. Whole economy Technical professional jobs In other words, renewables is facing Technical professional jobs similar resourceR constraintsenewables to those faced by the economy generally, and is Management therefore in competition with many other Management sectors for the same skills. 01020304050 0510 15 20 25 30 35 40

% of female employment7.2 Gender representation % of female employment

Overall, around 20% of employment in CHARTS - PROJECTIONS the sector is accounted for by women, a similar figure to that of the oil and DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS DIRECT AND INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS gas industry according to research DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS ACROSS WIND AND MARINE WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 conducted in 2009.9 This is also a similar ENERGY, 2013 proportion to the UK power sector in 2013. An indicative assessment has charts 2013 been made of the percentage of jobs filled by women in the economy as a 25% Site Planning or development 36%wholeOn andshor e:in la therge renewable sector, to 27% Construction & Installation 15% Construction & Installation 11% Manufacture or manufacturing design show5% On howshor e:the me renewabledium sector differs 16% Operation and maintenance 9% Operation and maintenance 27% Construction & Installation 30% Other direct 13from% Onthesh overallore: smal leconomy (see Figure 57% Other direct 7.2). 16% Operation and maintenance 46% Indirect 37% Offshore 18% Support services and other activities As9% canMa berine seen, when compared to the 1% Decommissioning economy as a whole, women appear 2% Specialised Transport to be relatively under-represented in management occupations, technical and professional occupations. Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 18,645 FTE Total employment: 34,373 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 However, this is also the case for the UK power sector as a whole. Compared to the power sector average, the wind and DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS marine sector has been more successful DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN LARGE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 in attracting women to the sector in AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 technical and professional-level jobs (26%, compared to 18%).

7.3 UK citizens 12000

62% England Marine 28% Site Planning or development 29% Site Planning or development Overall, 91% of employment in the 10000 4% Wales Offshore 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design 12% Manufacture or manufacturing design sector is accounted for by people who Onshore: small 21% Scotland 8000 20% Construction & Installation 24% Construction & Installation are UK citizens. This is similar to the UK Onshore: medium economy-wide4% N.Ireland average. The proportion 16% Operation and maintenance 15% Operation and maintenance 6000 Onshore: large is 90%9% orM moreobile for all technologies, 24% Support services and other activities 17% Support services and other activities Survey Results 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning with small onshore wind reporting a 4000 from mid-2013 somewhat higher percentage than the 1% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport others (94%). 2000

9. Research conducted by the UK Resource Centre in 2009.

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN SMALL DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN OFFSHORE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN MARINE SCALE ONSHORE ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013 ACTIVITIES, 2013

29% Site Planning or development 19% Site Planning or development 27% Site Planning or development

13% Manufacture or manufacturing design 10% Manufacture or manufacturing design 19% Manufacture or manufacturing design

24% Construction & Installation 36% Construction & Installation 20% Construction & Installation

15% Operation and maintenance 18% Operation and maintenance 16% Operation and maintenance

16% Support services and other activities 14% Support services and other activities 16% Support services and other activities

1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning 1% Decommissioning

2% Specialised Transport 2% Specialised Transport 1% Specialised Transport

Total employment: 2,464 FTE Total employment: 6,830 FTE Total employment: 1,724 FTE Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013 Survey Results from mid-2013

DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND AND DIRECT EMPLOYMENT ACROSS WIND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 AND MARINE ENERGY, 2013 AND 2023 REVISED

8. Conclusions

8.1 The sector today The skillsets required in the wind and • In the high scenario, 55,683 marine energy sector are similar to direct jobs are projected by 2023, The UK wind and marine energy sector those demanded in other sectors of supporting a further 49,109 indirect has endured a difficult period, with the economy. This highlights the need jobs in the rest of the UK economy; a global economic downturn and an for a coherent strategy to promote the • In the medium scenario, there is the environment of greater policy uncertainty supply of highly skilled workers, but also potential for 30,804 direct jobs and here in the UK (around Electricity Market illustrates the competition that the wind 21,736 indirect jobs; Reform, in particular). Nevertheless, the and marine energy sector faces in order • In the low scenario, there could be sector has achieved substantial growth, to attract future talent. as many as 16,443 direct jobs and with employment increasing by some 9,488 indirect jobs. 74% (7,886 jobs) between 2010 and Firms in the sector are, for the most 2013. In marked contrast to many other part, SMEs: over half of employers This time around, it is the high scenario, UK industries, the sector has also seen a have workforces of fewer than 25 rather than the medium one, that bears near-trebling in turnover in that time. people, and 84% have fewer than 250 the closest resemblance to the current employees. This, combined with the outlook for the industry. The latest survey points to a more labour shortages in the sector, highlights balanced technology mix than was the the importance of carefully directed Over time, the projections show a shift case in 2010, with particularly strong skills funding to support growth in the in emphasis away from activities that growth in offshore wind (a doubling to industry. relate to the early stages of deployment, 6,830 jobs) and small onshore wind such as planning and development, (2,464 jobs; four times the number in The sector generates substantial value and towards more operations- and 2010). The emergence of medium-scale (with estimated turnover of over £8bn) maintenance-oriented functions. This wind is also evident in the latest survey. and, moreover, supports other sectors is a feature of the future maturation of of the UK economy further up the supply the industry and, crucially, also marks The sector is maturing, and higher chain, accounting for 15,908 ‘indirect’ a transition to more permanent jobs, levels of installed capacity are reflected jobs. In total, UK wind and marine which are sustained by the requirement in a gradual shift away from early- energy supports 34,373 direct and to supply renewable electricity, rather stage activities like planning (though indirect jobs. than jobs that depend on continued it remains extremely important) and construction (and which are temporary towards construction and operations 8.2 Future prospects in nature). In that context, more of the jobs (which account for around half of industry’s future jobs will be long-term, all employment). Employment growth in This study also considers the future rather than short-term, in nature. construction and installation has been employment potential in the sector. particularly rapid, with 2,367 more jobs Recent developments present a more While the sector has delivered strong in 2013 than in 2010. challenging future outlook for the growth in these difficult years, policy industry than was predicted in 2011, and support is critical to ensure that this The previous study highlighted the the scenarios modelled are now more continues apace in the coming decade. risks of Hard-to-Fill Vacancies (HtFVs) conservative, reflecting both greater in the wind and marine energy sector, policy uncertainty and a lower level of particularly for technical professional optimism within the sector. In particular, staff, an occupational type on which the higher deployment scenarios the sector is highly dependent. This is consider the constraints of the proposed a more pressing issue for companies levy control framework, while the lower in 2013, increasing workloads for deployment scenarios represent the existing staff and reducing capacity, implications of policy failure to support possibly at the cost of losing business wind and marine energy (in contrast to to competitors. In the past year, we the previous study’s projection of simply estimate there to have been in the lower growth). region of 1,000 HtFVs. In a high-growth sector such as wind and marine energy, recruitment difficulties represent a significant challenge to maximising future growth. 46

Appendix

Key definitions components (such as nacelle Induced employment comes about covers and blades, rotor hubs Technologies from direct and indirect employees and towers); spending (part of) their additional - Manufacture and assembly of The ‘wind and marine energy sector’ in income on goods and services in the UK main units related to ‘balance of this study refers to five technology types: economy. This leads to further UK output plant’ (foundations, substations, and employment through (Keynesian) cables, etc). 1. Large-scale onshore wind, spending effects. Induced employment consisting of wind turbines over effects are usually more relevant at • Construction refers to the 500kW in size; the local, rather than national or UK, construction of civil/maritime 2. Medium-scale onshore wind, level. They also include some element industry-specific components consisting of wind turbines between of double-counting (such that the total of wind/marine farms, including 100kW and 500kW in size; across all sectors would exceed UK ‘balance of plant’ (but excluding 3. Small-scale wind systems, for wind output and employment). Moreover, the general infrastructure, such as roads turbines less than 100kW in size; spending effects per unit of additional leading to sites); 4. Offshore wind, covering wind income are assumed to be common to all • Installation, covering the installation turbines deployed in a marine sectors: workers in the wind and marine of wind and marine energy devices environment; energy sector are assumed to have the and electrical components of device- 5. Marine energy, for wave and tidal same spending patterns as workers in specific ‘balance of plant’; stream energy technologies. any other sector of the UK economy. • Operations and maintenance, In that sense, the induced effect is not covering activities related to the Of the above, medium-scale onshore distinctive to the sector. Thus, while operation and running of wind and wind is now separately identified the model does generate projections of marine sites, as well as servicing (whereas, previously, it was counted induced employment (which would add of devices on those sites, electrical within large-scale onshore wind). to the direct and indirect jobs figures), components and ‘balance of plant’; they are not reported in this study. • Specialist transport covers Types of employment transport activities that relate Types of activity in the UK wind specifically to transport of employees Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) employment and marine energy sector and components to and from wind is a measure of the number of employees and marine sites, possibly requiring in a firm or sector. Employees who This study identifies the following specialist transport equipment to regularly work more than 30 hours per activities within the UK wind and marine specifically service wind and marine week are counted as one FTE, while energy sector, covering the entire asset sites; those that work part-time (less than 30 lifecycle of these sites: • Decommissioning/ hours per week) are counted as half recommissioning concerns wind a FTE. This is in order to measure the • Site planning and development and marine energy sites that have ‘effective’ number of full-time employees. refers to all activities that relate to the reached the end of their operational The implication is that one FTE may planning and development of wind life and are either dismantled or represent more than one ‘actual’ and marine energy sites; repowered; employee. • Manufacturing and design covers • Specialist support services and activities that relate directly to the other covers the wide range of wind Direct employment covers employees design and manufacture of wind and marine energy-specific activities who spend the majority of their working and marine energy components. It not covered by any of the above, day on activities specific to wind or excludes the manufacture of generic including: marine energy. components such as gearbox - Technical consultancy; components (which would be - Environmental consultancy; Indirect employment covers employees classified as an indirect economic - Specialist legal services; whose principal activity is not wind or activity). This activity thus comprises: - Specialist financial services; marine energy-specific, but who work in - Technology R&D; - Specialist insurance services. sectors that supply goods and services - Assembly and sale of complete to the wind and marine energy sector. In devices (complete wind, Of the above, Decommissioning/ that sense their employment is indirectly tidal stream and wave power recommissioning is a new category supported by the UK wind and marine generation units); compared to the previous study that energy sector. - Manufacture of specialist key recognises that some installed capacity 47

in the UK has reached the end of its life Methodology of 598 employers (i.e. by assuming that and has either been decommissioned non-respondents would have the same or repowered. Specialist transport was The survey characteristics as respondents). The data previously included as part of Specialist were grossed up to reflect this total. support services and other. The first step in the study was to carry out a new survey of UK wind and marine The employment model Contracted and permanent energy companies, to obtain an up-to- employment date picture of the sector. The survey The employment model applied for approach was similar to that followed this study is an improved and updated This study distinguishes between: for the first Working for a Green Britain version of that used for the first Working study, to achieve a similar set of aims: for a Green Britain study. The purpose • Contracted employment, which is of the model is to generate projections temporary employment in activities • To measure employment in the for UK employment under alternative sustained by the construction of new sector in mid-2013, by technology, trajectories of renewables deployment in (or the decommissioning/repowering activity and nation; the UK (across the asset lifecycle) as well of old) wind and marine sites; • To assess the demand for skills in as in the rest of the world (through UK • Permanent employment, which the sector and the nature of skills exports of manufactured components). is employment sustained by the shortages (i.e. supply); requirement to operate and maintain • To obtain additional supporting The model distinguishes two main types current installed capacity. information (including turnover in of employment, matching the definitions the sector), for incorporation into the above: In this context, permanent employment is employment projections model. long-term in nature, whereas contracted • Direct employment; and employment depends on (continued) The survey was undertaken by IFF • Indirect employment. construction of new projects. Research as a series of telephone interviews between 25 February 2013 and In order to do this, the model must not Other terminology 9 April 2013, with some follow-up calls only be able to relate projections of future between 7 June 2013 and 17 June 2013. installed capacity to (direct) employment, Learning rates refers to the changing but must also capture the relationship relationship between the cost of The sample of companies was provided between the wind and marine energy developing and operating a particular by RenewableUK, with 691 companies sector and the rest of the UK economy, technology and the scale at which that identified as being within the scope of in order to identify (indirect) employment technology is deployed. This is in order the study. The companies were notified further up the supply chain. to capture increases in efficiencies and by email ahead of the actual interviews, reductions in costs as a technology and were also provided with a data sheet The model also captures jobs supported matures, such that the cost reductions listing the information that would be by the additional direct and indirect from deploying earlier units are greater asked of them (giving them time to gather employment income that goes towards than the reductions from subsequent more detailed data in preparation for the further spending. As mentioned in the units. Learning rates are expressed in interview). In total, 237 companies were previous section, these figures are not percentages and refer to the additional interviewed. This is slightly fewer than reported in this study. cost saving that arises from each the 253 companies that responded last doubling of capacity. In the projections time and may be due, in part, to some Three scenarios were modelled and reported herein, learning rates have consolidation in the industry (i.e. mergers reported in this study (high, medium been translated into changes in labour and acquisitions). This is supported by and low), each consisting of a set of productivity, under the assumption the observed increase in the number assumptions relating to: that labour costs are the same as other of different activities that individual business costs and thus subject to the companies are engaged in. • Future UK deployment of wind and same gains from learning. marine energy devices; In order to gross up the sample data to a • The extent to which UK Original Equipment Manufacturers population estimate, the survey data were manufacturing will supply (OEMs) are companies that supply weighted. There were 691 companies manufactured components to equipment to other companies for resale in the scope of the study; however, support wind and marine energy or for incorporation into other products, for 93 companies no contact details deployment elsewhere in the world; using the resellers’ brand names. were found and it was assumed that • The extent to which the wind and they no longer existed. An adjustment marine energy sector will locate was also made to the number of large manufacturing activities in the UK, companies, since it was easier to identify leading to more of the sector’s how many large firms had participated supply requirements being met in the survey. Further investigation of by UK production (and thus UK the data suggested a population total employees). 48

Modelling direct employment Appendix Figure 1: Asset Lifecycle of Wind and Marine Energy Devices

Direct employment in the UK wind and Capacity is operational marine energy sector is linked to the (generating employment alternative projections for future UK and during installation life) world deployment of such devices. A key feature of the modelling approach is Site planning or development Manufacture or manufacturing design the way in which it makes a distinction Construction between different activities over the Installation lifecycle of the wind and marine energy Maintenance Site operation devices, from the initial planning stages, Specialised transport through to construction and subsequent Support services operation, before the sites are either Decommissioning/Recommissioning decommissioned or repowered at the end of their life. Planning and construction Decommissioning/ (generating employment Recommissioning before capacuty comes on stream (generating employment Appendix Figure 1 shows an indicative at end of life) time plan for the deployment, operation and end-of-life of a notional wind or marine device. The diagram divides the In a number of scenarios, it is common lifecycle into three key phases: Moreover, depending on the technology, to see more capacity deployed at the some activities may take a number beginning of the period, followed by a • Planning and construction, before the of years, such that, for example, more gradual increase later in the period. site becomes operational; construction work in a given year will This leads to employment profiles that • Operations and maintenance, while relate in part to capacity due to come place more emphasis on contracted jobs the site is operational; online in the following year, but also to earlier in the period (for construction • Decommissioning/recommissioning, capacity in the years after (for multi-year of new capacity) and permanent jobs after the site has reached the end of construction projects). later in the period (when most of the its life. activity in the sector relates to operating Construction and installation, and all and maintaining the stock of installed A further implication is that some activities that support current installed capacity). employment relates to the amount of capacity, benefit from learning over time, capacity actually installed (employment such that the numbers of jobs per MW Thus, for each technology, the annual required to operate and maintain wind in 2023 is (somewhat) lower than the cumulative and incremental capacity and marine sites) while other forms of current figures. The rate of learning varies in each projection is translated into an employment relate to changes in the by technology, with slower efficiency activity profile through time, in order to amount of capacity installed (to bring new gains in relatively more established account for the entire asset lifecycle. This sites online or to take old sites offline). technologies (large onshore and offshore is also the reason why it is important for This gives rise to a distinction between wind) and faster gains in others (medium the model to project through time, to ‘permanent’ jobs, which are those that and small onshore, and marine energy). acknowledge the time profile. relate to the installed assets (representing This treatment of direct employment a sustained source of employment), and gives rise to employment profiles Future UK capacity is the main driver ‘contracted’ or temporary jobs, which (shown in the main report) that follow behind the projections, with three other depend on continued construction the capacity projections broadly, but far factors governing the final employment activity (and thus ever-increasing UK from exactly. This is because it is not just results: capacity). the level of capacity in each year that matters, but where that capacity lies on • Learning: as relatively nascent The nature of the deployment lifecycle the overall deployment trajectory (the technologies, wind and marine means that, in any given year, there are rates of change/growth). This is perhaps devices can be expected to become employees engaged in activities that clearest in the difference between cheaper over time, as technologies relate to: the high deployment scenario for and working practices improve. offshore wind and the medium and low In the model, as more capacity is • Future installed capacity (planning, scenarios, where part of the difference in deployed, ‘learning-by-doing’ effects manufacturing and construction); employment relates to the UK making a emerge, leading to capacity installed • Current installed capacity sustained commitment to new offshore earlier in the period being relatively (operations, maintenance and various wind to 2030 in the high scenario, more costly (and labour-intensive) support services); generating planning, manufacturing and than capacity installed later in the • Past installed capacity construction employment not required in period. The ratio of jobs to MW falls (decommissioning or the medium and low scenarios. over time, particularly so in the case recommissioning). of marine energy, where the structure 49

of the sector now (with a heavy wind projects that are expected to supply increases in the medium and emphasis on R&D, etc.) will likely be be built between 2015 and 2019 high scenarios only, to 40% and 55%, quite different to the future structure generate requirements for planning and respectively. of the industry, as the technology development activities now, in 2013. The matures. lead times to consent vary by technology, Construction and installation • Global deployment of wind and with longer lead times on large onshore, marine devices: deployment of offshore and marine energy (two to six As with planning and manufacturing, wind and marine devices will not be years) and much shorter lead times on construction activity takes place before confined to the UK and, depending medium- (one year) and small-scale the new capacity becomes operational. on the technology, the UK will be in onshore (within the same year). The lead and construction times vary by a position to export manufactured technology: components to the rest of the world. In the case of offshore wind, the average In all but small onshore wind, the size of future sites (in MW) is expected • An average of three years for assumption is that these components to increase, and an adjustment factor offshore wind and marine; will not be exported any further is applied to account for the fact that • An average of two years for large afield than Europe (confining the an increase in future installed capacity onshore wind; potential market to future European (expressed in MW) will not translate, one- • Medium and small onshore wind deployment). It is assumed that UK for-one, into an increase in jobs. sites are completed in one year. production relating to small onshore wind can service demand globally. Manufacturing and design Operations and maintenance High, medium and low scenarios were developed that vary in the Employment in manufacturing and design Operations and maintenance activities extent to which the UK could supply activities depends on the following each year are tied directly to the amount components overseas in the future. factors: of capacity in the system at that time, • UK domestic supply: in some adjusted for learning (productivity gains). technologies, the extent to which • The level of UK deployment each supply is met by UK production may year (accounting for differences in Specialist transport change over time. In particular, a the length of time to bring a site high proportion of the UK marine online); Specialist transport activities each year supply chain is located in the UK, • The level of global deployment and are tied directly to the amount of capacity but this is likely to fall to 70% the extent to which the UK is able to in the system at that time, adjusted for with outsourcing over time (in all supply manufactured components to learning (productivity gains). scenarios). In the case of offshore support that deployment; wind, the medium and high scenarios • The extent to which productive Decommissioning/ incorporate projections of more capacity changes in the UK, recommissioning overall contract award in the UK to increasing (or decreasing) the amount support UK deployment, from 37% of the supply chain located in the UK At the end of life, wind and marine energy now (based on a UK content analysis (with implications for jobs). sites must either be decommissioned of the Robin Rigg offshore wind or recommissioned (repowered). The farm10), rising to 40% in 2023 in the With the exception of small-scale wind updated employment model does medium scenario and 55% in the systems, where potential consumers incorporate assumptions on the average high scenario (also in 2023). Under are global, the potential for export to life of capacity built over the projection the assumption of a fixed ratio of overseas markets is confined to Europe. period, but this activity takes place after UK contracts to UK content,11 this is The assumptions on overseas 2023 (the end point for this current study). consistent with a 32% UK content deployment are similar to those from As such, for now, the assumption is that share (in line with the Robin Rigg the previous Working for a Green Britain the number of jobs in decommissioning/ analysis), rising to 35% and 48% study, and are based on data and recommissioning is constant to 2023, and by 2023 in the medium and high projections from the Global Wind Energy set at the level of employment identified scenarios, respectively. Council, the European Wind Energy in the survey. In any case, the current Association and the EMEA. figure is small and thus has little bearing Site planning and development on the results across scenarios. As mentioned previously, in all the For the most part, employment in site projections, the domestic share of the Specialist Support Services and planning and development relates to marine supply chain is expected to fall Other capacity due to come online in later from 100% now to 70% by 2023, while years. As an example, large onshore the domestic share of offshore wind Specialist Support Services and Other

10. www.eon-uk.com/E.ON_Robin_Rigg_UK_content_report_October_2011.pdf 11. Some of the UK contracts will involve overseas subcontracting and, conversely, some overseas contracts will make use of UK subcontractors. 50

activities each year are tied directly to the structure in terms of industry sectors requirement for fossil fuels for generation. amount of capacity in the system at that and their purchases of inputs from other Such flows have been set to zero. time, adjusted for learning (productivity UK industries, as well as labour. These gains). purchases are expressed in monetary Having formed projections of direct units (pounds sterling). In this way, an employment (and output) as described Modelling indirect employment input-output table describes the supply above, indirect employment arises from chain of an economy. calculating the indirect output generated Indirect employment relates to jobs An input-output table implies that a by the direct jobs and converting back to that are generated outside of the wind one-unit increase in output entails a employment using current and projected and marine energy sector through more-than-one-unit increase in economy- productivity figures for the rest of the supply-chain linkages. As an example, wide output, because industries must economy (sourced from Cambridge wind turbine manufacture generates purchase inputs from other industries, Econometrics’ MDM-E3 model of the UK direct employment in UK wind-energy which must in turn purchase further economy). manufacturing (because such turbines inputs from elsewhere in the economy. are a sector-specific technology), but also These effects are expressed as (output) Revisions in approach indirect employment elsewhere in the UK multipliers: the ratio of economy-wide because there will also be requirements (direct plus indirect) output to the initial The approach is very similar to that for more generic components (such as (direct) change in output. developed for the previous Working for gearbox components) which are not a Green Britain study, with the principal specific to the wind energy sector. The application of productivity figures differences arising from: (output per FTE worker) to the output In order to identify indirect employment, it multipliers leads to a set of employment • New data (from a more up-to- is necessary to link the wind and marine multipliers: the ratio of economy-wide date survey, but also because energy sector identified from the survey (direct plus indirect) jobs to the initial new economic data have become (and for which direct employment is (direct) change in jobs arising from available). projected according to the approach employment in the wind and marine • Greater disaggregation/more direct outlined above) to other sectors in the UK energy sector. activities identified in the modelling. economy. This requires the reconciliation In particular, the model now between the information obtained from The starting point for the analysis separately identifies medium onshore the survey conducted for this update with is the most recent official UK input- wind from large onshore wind, official statistics on the UK economy, output table (for 2005). Additional rows and also distinguishes Specialist from the UK Office for National Statistics and columns to represent the various transport and Decommissioning/ (ONS). activities in the wind and marine energy recommissioning as activities in the sector (differentiated by technology) sector. There is currently no single ‘wind and are then created based on the turnover marine energy’ sector identified within figures from the survey and UK turnover the Standard Industrial Classification.12 data from ONS. The wind and marine Instead, such activities are grouped activities have been split out from the within sectors such as manufacturing, most appropriate sectors identified in engineering, electricity, construction the original table. For example, planning and various types of business service and development activities are split (e.g. architecture, in the case of planning out from the Architecture and technical and development). The first step in the consultancy sector of the original table. method involves separating out the UK-level employment figures are similarly activities identified in the survey from adjusted to account for the parts of each the broader aggregates in the UK data sector that are wind and marine energy (the ‘parent sectors’). This leads to the related. construction of a modified UK ‘input- output table’. A number of further adjustments have been made to the supply chains, in An input-output table is a key part of the order to better reflect the specificities economic accounting framework from of the wind and marine energy sector. which the well-known economic indicator For example, the operations component Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is of wind and marine energy differs from derived. The purpose of an input-output the electricity sector of the UK as a table is to depict an economy’s industrial whole, because there is obviously no

12. The Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) is the statistical system in the UK to which all businesses and other entities are categorised, according to their economic activity. It distinguishes a wide range of agriculture, manufacturing, utilities, construction and service activities. 51

Our vision is for renewable energy to play a leading role in powering the UK.

RenewableUK is the UK’s leading renewable energy trade association, specialising in onshore wind, offshore wind, and wave & tidal energy. RenewableUK Formed in 1978, we have a large established corporate membership, Greencoat House, Francis Street ranging from small independent companies to large international London SW1P 1DH, United Kingdom corporations and manufacturers.

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Energy & Utility Skills The energy and utilities sector is fundamental to the success of the UK Friars Gate, 1011 Stratford Road economy and is crucial to the way modern society functions. It is critical Shirley, Solihull, B90 4BN, to facilitate an adequate supply of competent people to develop, United Kingdom maintain and enhance the sector.

Tel: +44 (0)845 077 99 22 A skilled workforce is vital for meeting the challenges of an increasingly Web: www.euskills.co.uk competitive global economy and particularly during this tough economic Email: [email protected] climate, where skills are the key lever for successful competition.

Our commitment is to raise employer engagement, demand and investment in skills, to ensure that we have authoritative labour market information for all of our industries and to develop National Occupational Standards (NOS) to ensure that qualifications meet employer needs.