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RealPropertyResearchGroup Multifamily Rental Market Assessment Frederick County, Maryland Date: April 2010 Prepared for: Maryland Department of Housing and Community Development Community Development Administration BRAC Market Study Services Contract 10400 LITTLE PATUXENT PARKWAY SUITE 450 VOICE 410.772.1004 COLUMBIA, MARYLAND 21044 FAX 410.772.1110 RealPropertyResearchGroup April 16, 2010 Ms. Patricia Rynn Sylvester Director, Multifamily Housing Maryland Department of Housing and Community Development 100 Community Place Crownsville, Maryland 21032-2023 and Ms. Jenny Short Director Frederick County Department of Housing and Community Development 520 North Market Street Frederick, Maryland 21701 RE: Frederick County Multifamily Rental Market Assessment Dear Ms. Sylvester and Ms. Short: We are pleased to present our comprehensive assessment of the Multifamily Rental Market in Frederick County, Maryland. This is the first of two deliverables under our contract with the Maryland Department of Housing and Community Development (the “Department”). The second deliverable will be an electronic database of the inventory of multifamily rental properties in Frederick County with a ranking of the properties in order of feasibility for preservation as affordable housing. This assignment is part of the Maryland Preservation Compact, a partnership between the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, MD-DHCD and the eight subject Maryland counties: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Cecil, Frederick, Harford, Howard, Prince George’s and St. Mary’s Counties. The Compact seeks to preserve the existing stock of affordable rental housing in Maryland in areas anticipated to be impacted by growth stemming from the US Department of Defense’s ongoing efforts to expand military installations throughout the state. Maryland stands to gain more military, civilian and mission contractor personnel than any other state under the Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) recommendations approved by the President and Congress in 2005. With construction to accommodate new and expanded military missions already underway, the Maryland Preservation Compact will use the results of this and the assessments of the seven other BRAC-impacted counties to proactively target preservation resources. The following report includes our analysis and findings of the multifamily rental market in Frederick County. Our key findings are: Study Purpose · Despite modest income gains since 2000, Frederick County households face a shrinking supply of affordable rental housing options. Between 2000 and the 2006-2008 period, RPRG found that 10400 LITTLE PATUXENT PARKWAY SUITE 450 VOICE 410.772.1004 COLUMBIA, MARYLAND 21044 FAX 410.772.1110 RealPropertyResearchGroup Ms. Sylvester and Ms. Short April 16, 2010 Page 2 Frederick County had 900 fewer rental units that would be affordable to families earning up to 60 percent of the county median income. In 2000, affordable rental units accounted for three- quarters of the stock of all rental units in Frederick County, but by 2006-2008, the share of affordable units in the rental stock fell to just under 60 percent. · In response to this vanishing supply of affordable units, more renters are paying a greater share of their income toward rent. The share of Frederick County renters spending more than 30 percent of their income on rent increased from 34 percent in 2000 to 43 percent in the 2006-2008 period. Frederick County renters spending more than 50 percent of their income on rent increased from 13 percent to nearly 18 percent over the same period. · While the current BRAC recommendations will have a modest impact on Fort Detrick, non- BRAC related military and civilian agencies stationed there are expanding rapidly. Fort Detrick is a center for the nation’s medical research, medical intelligence and bio-defense fields and is home to more than three dozen military and federal agencies. While BRAC is expected to generate a modest 225 new jobs at Fort Detrick, combined BRAC and non-BRAC growth at the base is expected to create 1,075 new jobs between 2010 and 2012. Economic Context · Over the past 20 years, Frederick County’s job growth has consistently exceeded growth rates in the National economy. Metropolitan Washington Council of Government (MWCOG) estimates that Frederick County at-place employment increased by nearly 5.0 percent (5,172 jobs) per year between 2000 and 2005, triple the annual growth rate in at-place employment throughout the Washington, DC region (estimated by MWCOG at 1.6 percent per year). Moving forward, MWCOG projects that Frederick County will absorb roughly 1,800 new jobs per year between 2010 and 2015, a 1.2 percent annual growth rate. · During 2009, 6.1 percent of the Frederick County labor force was unemployed, compared to 7.0 percent of the Maryland labor force and 9.0 percent of the United States labor force. · Fort Detrick is located in central Frederick County, within the limits of the City of Frederick. The fort occupies approximately 1,200 acres, and currently hosts an estimated 8,460 jobs. Of these 8,460 jobs, approximately 1,500 are active duty military positions and nearly 7,000 are civilian/non-military positions. Roughly 450 of the current jobs at Fort Detrick were added during 2008 and 2009. BRAC-related job increases at Maryland military installations other than Fort Detrick are not expected to have significant impacts on the economy or housing market of Frederick County Neighborhood Context · To analyze rental market dynamics in Frederick County most effectively, RPRG outlined two distinct submarkets: 1. The Greater Frederick-270 Corridor, which is anchored by the city of Frederick, Frederick County’s primary population and commercial center. Located in the central segment of the county, the city incorporates an urbanized, historic downtown core surrounded by relatively dense neighborhoods developed primarily in the second half of the 20th century. The submarket also incorporates modern suburban-style development in unincorporated districts that spread to the south of the city and to the southeast along the Interstate 270 corridor. RealPropertyResearchGroup Ms. Sylvester and Ms. Short April 16, 2010 Page 3 2. Rural Frederick County includes the western and northern segments of Frederick County that exhibit a traditional, low-density, rural-small town character. The majority of the Rural Frederick County submarket is unincorporated, though eleven small incorporated jurisdictions are scattered throughout. · The Greater Frederick-270 Corridor submarket serves as the hub of Frederick County’s road and mass transit networks as well as commercial services. The Rural Frederick County submarket features hundreds of acres of state and national parkland Demographic Context · According to MWCOG, the household base in Frederick County increased by 2.3 percent per year between 2000 and 2010, climbing from 70,060 to 87,708 households. The Greater Frederick-270 Corridor submarket outpaced the Rural Frederick County submarket in terms of household growth over the recent decade – 2.7 percent per year versus 1.8 percent per year. The household growth rates in both submarkets outpaced the average annual household growth rate for the Washington, DC Region (1.5 percent). · MWCOG projects that net household growth will continue throughout Frederick County and the wider Washington, DC Region through 2015. MWCOG expects an annual household growth rate of 1.8 percent for Frederick County as a whole over the next five years, incorporating 2.0 percent annual growth in the Greater Frederick-270 Corridor submarket and 1.6 percent annual growth in the Rural Frederick County submarket. MWCOG expects Frederick County household growth to continue to outpace household growth in the overall Washington, DC region. · At 23.4 percent, the proportion of renter households in Frederick County is considerably lower than in the Washington, D.C Region (38.6%). The renter rate in the Greater Frederick-270 Corridor submarket (29.7 percent) is nearly double the renter rate in the Rural Frederick County submarket (15.4 percent). · Single person households account for 38.7 percent and 37.3 percent of renters in the Greater Frederick-270 Corridor submarket and Washington Region respectively, but only 27.7 percent of renters in Rural Frederick County. While roughly one-quarter of renter households contain three or four persons in the Greater Frederick-270 Corridor submarket and Washington Region, the renter base of the Rural Frederick County submarket consists of more than one-third three or four person households. · As of 2010, the Frederick County median annual household income is estimated at $79,758 compared to the wider Washington, DC Region median of $86,156. Within Frederick County, household incomes tend to be higher in Rural Frederick County (where the 2010 median is $85,829) than in the Greater Frederick-270 Corridor submarket (with a 2010 median of $74,714). Rental Market · At the time of the 2000 Census, the renter-occupied housing stock of Frederick County displayed considerable diversity in terms of structure type. Single -family detached and single -family attached homes collectively accounted for more than 45 percent of the county’s rental units; the detached units outnumbered the single -family attached units. Multifamily buildings with at least five units contributed 39.1 percent of Frederick County’s year 2000 rental stock. Multifamily structures with five or more units represented nearly half of the year 2000 rental stock in the Greater
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