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7 December 2017 DAILY SUMMARY – 7 DECEMBER 2017 1. Detonation at Makhmour Refugee Camp 2. Murder of a Police Major near the North Oil Company in Kirkuk 3. Reports of increased IS presence and activity along the Salah ad Din border with Diyala 4. ISF conclude preparations and are poised to clear remaining IS held areas in the deserts of Anbar 5. Demonstration occurs outside the Umm al-Qura Mosque denouncing the US decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital 6. An IED detonates outside a lawyer’s office in Manawi Basha, central Basra 7. A grenade is thrown at a house owned by the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Salim al-Jubouri, wounding a security guard North: At approximately 1845 hours on 6 December, a detonation was reported at the Makhmour / Martyr Rostam Judi Refugee Camp (38SLE7386758291). The camp, which is located east of Makhmour Town, is guarded by PKK fighters, and shelters over 10,000 Sunni Kurdish refugees from Turkey. At least five individuals were killed and eight others were wounded, with the wounded evacuated to hospitals in Erbil. Most if not all of the casualties were said to be PKK fighters. A number of buildings were damaged or destroyed. Members of the Makhmour Camp Council stated the incident was an airstrike, with a rocket targeting a training post for PKK fighters affiliated with the site. Alluding to Turkish responsibility, the statement denounced Baghdad as being responsible due to federal control of Iraqi airspace, and called on the GoI, UN, and other organizations to investigate these events. In additional reporting, a former senior Council Member named Leyla Arzu Ilhan stated that “Residents saw a flash in the sky then heard a loud explosion, so this points to an aerially launched device.” Ilhan speculated that this action may have come as part of increasing Turkish pressures to free two MIT members who were captured by the PKK in Sulaymaniyah in August. Ultimately no party claimed responsibility for the attack, and neither Baghdad, Turkey, the UN, or Coalition issued an official statement regarding the incident as of this writing. A Turkish airstrike is somewhat possible, with the overall tempo of Turkish strike activity in northern Iraq elevated since 27 November. A strike against a PKK position attached to a refugee camp far from the border would form a statement-level event, with the above noted speculation that this may be related to the previous capture of two MIT personnel similarly somewhat plausible. If Turkish perpetration is confirmed, PKK responses are likely, including the potential for additional attacks against isolated Turkish military and government movements in northern Duhok. Central / Iraq-wide: On 6 December, Hashd al-Ashairi Commander Qatari al-Ubaidi, stated that ISF elements control most of the desert areas between Rawa and Salah ad-Din, adding that security forces are continuing to search and destroy IS sleeper cells despite geographic difficulties the desert poses. Following this announcement, Hashd al-Shaabi leader Jawad al-Telibawi stated that military preparations have concluded with forces poised to liberate the remaining areas of the western Anbar desert. As reported yesterday, no official channels have confirmed the above intent to initiate the next stage of operations. However, increasing rhetoric by ISF Commanders is a key indicator that the start of the second stage of the second phase of the Upper Euphrates and Jazeera Operation, is likely to be close. On 7 December, the Sunni Endowment Organization protested outside of the Umm al-Qura Mosque in Baghdad, denouncing the decision made by the US President to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Initial reflections indicated that the gathering was passive and no violence has been reported thus far. Widespread protests in Baghdad and across the southern region of Iraq did not materialize in response to the Trump’s announcement, but were witnessed in other areas within the Middle East. In Baghdad this reluctance to gather could possibly be attributed to reports indicating that Iraqi aviation assets flew low over the capital, in a possible “show of force” to coerce residents from demonstrating violently across the city in protest. An increased participation is likely to be seen in Iraq as part of regular Friday protest events in response to this issue. CONFIDENTIAL – FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY Page 2 of 4 Many regional and international officials responded to the US decision, with Muqtada al-Sadr calling Saudi Arabia to end its war in Yemen and focus on liberating Jerusalem. He also called for an emergency meeting to be held and called for the Iraqi Government to close the US Embassy immediately. He further stated, in an intimidating manner, that his forces can reach Israel through the Syrian border if required. Muqtadr al-Sadr’s rhetoric is of little surprise as he attempts to propagate himself as an increasingly influential force and Sadrist candidates as a desirable choice for the upcoming elections. In the short term, tensions will remain high over Trump’s announcement and it is likely protestors will seek to position outside of the IZ in an effort to send a message to the US Embassy. Gatherings at US consulates in Erbil and Basra also remain a possibility. South: On 7 December, hundreds of Basra residents demonstrated in front of the Power Distribution Directorate, to reject the Power Privatization Project and associated collection efforts. Some demonstrators stated that the project is being conducted to rob money from the people, while participants called on Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to end the project and rework the old power collection system. As of writing no violence was reported, however tensions remain high with regards to the project’s implementation across the southern region. Operations should be aware that further protests are likely with localized violence a possibility. Basra Provincial Council Security Committee head, Jabar al-Saaidi stated an IED detonated against a lawyer’s office in Manawi Basha in central Basra. No casualties were reported with only minor damage to the building’s exterior. This incident is very likely connected to the targeting of a lawyer on 29 November, with this most recent incident comprising a further escalation by individuals opposed to an ongoing investigation into a number of criminal organizations. On 6 December, unidentified individuals threw a hand grenade against a house owned by the Speaker of the House of Representatives Salim al-Jubouri in al-Sabaghiya area, in north Babel, which resulted in a security guard sustaining minor injuries. The perpetrator is unclear as is the motive for the attack, though elections slated in May of next year make political drivers a potential possibility. That said, tensions remain heightened in the area following many protests rejecting the Power Privatization Project, and the campaign to remove illegally built properties, with political representatives often held responsible for such events. International: Syria war: UN rebukes Russia and Iran over evacuations – BBC The UN’s humanitarian co-ordinator for Syria has rebuked Russia and Iran for not doing more to give aid agencies access to a besieged rebel enclave. Jan Egeland told the BBC the failure to persuade the Syrian government, their ally, to allow desperately ill children to be evacuated from the Eastern Ghouta showed “complete impotence”. U.N. to assess if either side trying to ‘sabotage’ Syria talks – Reuters The mediator of U.N.-led Syrian peace talks in Geneva will assess next week whether either side is trying to sabotage the process, he said on Thursday, after President Bashar al-Assad’s negotiators said they would turn up five days late. “We shall assess the behavior of both sides, government and opposition, CONFIDENTIAL – FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY Page 3 of 4 in Geneva,” U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura said. “And based on that we will then decide how this… can be a building up or not, or a sabotage of Geneva.” In first hearing over a year, Turkey court extends Kurdish leader’s imprisonment – K24 A Turkish court in Ankara remanded the jailed pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) Co-leader Selahattin Demirtas on Thursday for two more months in the first hearing of his case, 399 days after his arrest. A Criminal Court judge ruled that Demirtas should remain imprisoned until the next hearing on February 14, 2018, reported a Kurdistan 24 correspondent in the Turkish capital. Disclaimer Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information, however TALOS LLC does not warrant that the information in this document is complete, true, accurate or correct. TALOS LLC accepts no liability arising out of or in connection with the comments made or information provided in this report and is not responsible for any decision made in reliance on this report. TALOS LLC does not accept any liability if this report is used for an alternative purpose from which it is intended, nor to any third party in respect of this report. This information product is graded as Commercial in Confidence and should be transmitted, communicated, stored and secured accordingly. CONFIDENTIAL – FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY Page 4 of 4 .
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