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How Dangerous Is Vladimir Putin?
A SYMPOSIUM OF VIEWS THE MAGAZINE OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY 220 I Street, N.E., Suite 200 Washington, D.C. 20002 Phone: 202-861-0791 Fax: 202-861-0790 www.international-economy.com [email protected] How Dangerous Is Vladimir Putin? estern experts have offered various explanations for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions in recent years. Some sug- gest Putin has been merely reacting to NATO and EU enlarge- Wment. Others suggest the Russian leader has succumbed to a bout of irrationality, spawned by a desire to return to the “good old days” of the Soviet Union. After all, according to historian Stephen Kotkin, traditional Soviet geopolitical thinking always assumed that Western capitalism would eventually disintegrate. Princeton Professor Harold James suggests Putin’s actions are based on the rational assumption that in the wake of the global financial crisis and subsequent eurozone debt crisis, the West would lack the ability to take decisive action. This would provide Russia with a window to pursue a strategy of expanding its influence. Putin’s bet was that Western policymakers and politicians would stumble in the effort to repair their economic and financial sys- tems in the wake of the crisis. By deliberately exacerbating geo- political tensions, Putin reasoned, the preoccupied West would look even more indecisive and weak. Of course, the Russian leader’s actions have already risked a recession back home with the plummeting of the global price of oil, not to men- tion the economic bite of Western sanctions. On a scale of one to ten—with one suggesting Putin is merely a delirious fool and ten a serious threat—how dangerous is Vladimir Putin to the West? More than thirty noted observers offer their assessment on a scale of one to ten. -
What Is the Kremlin up to in Belarus? Joerg Forbrig
Transatlantic Take 14 September 2020 What Is the Kremlin up to in Belarus? Joerg Forbrig Against the background of ongoing mass protests in Belarus, a critical meeting will take place this Monday in the Russian Black Sea city of Sochi. Alexander Lukashenka, the Belarusian strongman struggling to hold on to power, meets with Vladimir Putin, his key supporter. This first personal meeting since a popular uprising began against Lukashenka’s massively falsified reelection is an important indicator of where the political crisis in Belarus is headed. The fate of Lukashenka is at stake, as is that of the democratic movement in Belarus and the continued existence of an independent Belarusian state. Russia undoubtedly plays a central role in all these respects. However, the EU can and must bring to bear its influence more decisively than before. The Belarusian summer surprised Russia no less than most in Europe and even in Belarus itself. The Kremlin had assumed that Lukashenka would assert his power but would be weakened, given rising discontent in Belar- usian society. Moscow reckoned that this would finally force Minsk to make concessions in the direction of closer political integration between the two countries, which Putin had long called for, but which Lukashenka had so far rejected to preserve his own power. The fact that the continued existence of the Lukashenka regime would be seriously questioned by a popular uprising was unexpected for the Russian leadership. Mirroring that, Russian reactions to the events in Belarus were contradictory. Putin’s congratulations on Lukashenka’s election victory were accompanied by clear criticism from high-ranking Moscow politicians of the Belarusian ruler’s actions, and the Russian state media reported unusually openly on election fraud, mass protests, and police violence. -
The Mystery of the Copper Book the Mysterious Writings About the Treasure of Alexander the Great of Macedonia
1 2 Aleksandar DONSKI THE MYSTERY OF THE COPPER BOOK THE MYSTERIOUS WRITINGS ABOUT THE TREASURE OF ALEXANDER THE GREAT OF MACEDONIA - Historical thriller, inspired by real events - Published by: Aleksandar Donski (the author) English Translation: Dr. Michael Seraphinoff Reviews: Prof. D-r Maria Kubaiska (USA, Macedonia) Prof. D-r Michael Seraphinoff (USA) Cover design: Aleksandar Donski Electronic edition, 2015 All rights reserved by the author! 3 He stood alone in front of the dimly-lit imperial palace. Not another living soul was about. He felt some strange presentiment. Some nameless fear gnawed at him. Suddenly, huge black clouds filled the sky to the east. They had approached with such speed as if pulled by swift chariots. Day was transformed into night. The first lightning bolts lit up the sky. They struck mercilessly at his palace. It began to tremble and then to crumble before his eyes. The walls fell away as if they were mere shards of wood. He stood helplessly by, rooted in place. He watched the terrible scene, powerless to intervene. Thunder and lightning, raging black sky… Horror! He wanted to cry out. But he could not utter a sound. In no time the walls of his luxurious palace were reduced to rubble… But that was not the end of his troubles. He felt some unknown presence. He turned to look… He felt a shiver rise up his spine. Suddenly the visage of an ancient black-robed crone rose up before him. Her harsh and terrible gaze cut into him like a knife. His eyes were glued to her. -
Implications for U.S. National Security
1 115TH CONGRESS " ! S. PRT. 2d Session COMMITTEE PRINT 115–21 PUTIN’S ASYMMETRIC ASSAULT ON DEMOCRACY IN RUSSIA AND EUROPE: IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY A MINORITY STAFF REPORT PREPARED FOR THE USE OF THE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED FIFTEENTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION JANUARY 10, 2018 Printed for the use of the Committee on Foreign Relations Available via World Wide Web: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/congress/index.html U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE 28–110 PDF WASHINGTON : 2018 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Publishing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington, DC 20402–0001 VerDate Mar 15 2010 04:06 Jan 09, 2018 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00001 Fmt 5012 Sfmt 5012 S:\FULL COMMITTEE\HEARING FILES\COMMITTEE PRINT 2018\HENRY\JAN. 9 REPORT FOREI-42327 with DISTILLER seneagle COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS BOB CORKER, Tennessee, Chairman JAMES E. RISCH, Idaho BENJAMIN L. CARDIN, Maryland MARCO RUBIO, Florida ROBERT MENENDEZ, New Jersey RON JOHNSON, Wisconsin JEANNE SHAHEEN, New Hampshire JEFF FLAKE, Arizona CHRISTOPHER A. COONS, Delaware CORY GARDNER, Colorado TOM UDALL, New Mexico TODD YOUNG, Indiana CHRISTOPHER MURPHY, Connecticut JOHN BARRASSO, Wyoming TIM KAINE, Virginia JOHNNY ISAKSON, Georgia EDWARD J. MARKEY, Massachusetts ROB PORTMAN, Ohio JEFF MERKLEY, Oregon RAND PAUL, Kentucky CORY A. BOOKER, New Jersey TODD WOMACK, Staff Director JESSICA LEWIS, Democratic Staff Director JOHN DUTTON, Chief Clerk (II) VerDate Mar 15 2010 04:06 Jan 09, 2018 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00002 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 S:\FULL COMMITTEE\HEARING FILES\COMMITTEE PRINT 2018\HENRY\JAN. -
Capítulo Quinto Russia and Europe
Russia and Europe: a way to revive cooperation Capítulo quinto Vladimir Lukin1 Russia and the West are at strong confrontation again. At times this confron- tation takes the form of such acute crises (like that in Georgia in 2008 and in Ukraine in 2014) that it reminds one of what Karl Marx wittingly described as a situation where the weapon of criticism gives way to criticism by weapon. It so happened that I was in the very heart of both of the abovementioned crises, although in somewhat different way and degree, and I felt the hot ten- sions first hand. This brief experience has invigorated my intention to ponder over the prerequisites and root causes of the general conflict between Rus- sia and the West – its genetic code, so to say – in a calm, academic way. Of course, it would be very naive of me to claim an ability for an exhaus- tive analysis of this issue. The root causes of the conflict lie in the distant past, it spans Russia’s entire recent and modern history, and only history can put an end to the long story, if at all. So, below I will only touch upon some aspects of the Russia-West saga. I believe each of these individual aspects and all of them in their enti- 1 Vladimir Lukin is a research professor at the National Research University Higher School of Economics in Moscow. He was Russia’s Ambassador to the US in 1992-1994, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Supreme Soviet (1990-1992) and the State Duma (1994-2000), Deputy Chairman of the State Duma (2000-2004) and Com- missioner for Human Rights in the Russian Federation (2004-2014). -
A 101-Year-Old Artist Finally Gets Her Due
Issue 41 February 2019 A 101-Year-Old Artist Finally Gets Her Due Seniors are never too old to live to its fullest. Older adults all over the world are doing incredible things regardless of age. For most of her career, Carmen Herrera's paintings of brightly colored geometric shapes went unnoticed, while her male counterparts — Barnett Newman, Ellsworth Kelly and Frank Stella — got plenty of attention for similar work. Herrera finally made her first sale at 89. And now, at 101, it seems she's getting her due at last. The Cuban artist's work can be seen at the Tate in London, MoMA in New York, and she has an exhibition coming to the Whitney Whitney Museum of American Art in September. Tears streamed down Herrera's face as she viewed her art on display at a recent show at the Lisson Gallery in Manhattan. The 13 paintings and one sculpture were her sometimes cutting them up and moving them around. Later, with first solo exhibition in the U.S. in nearly 10 years. the help of an assistant, the drawings are amplified to fill canvases larger than the artist. For the past seven decades, "It helps that they recognize you — that your work is not Herrera's been figuring out variations on the straight line. going to go to the garbage," Herrera says. "I'm still looking for it! ...This is done with pleasure," she says. That's kind of a surprising statement considering that in the 1940s, Herrera was exhibiting her work next to Piet One of the pieces in the Lisson show was a painting seven feet Mondrian, and was part of a community of artists in Paris square, formed of three equal sections. -
The Militarization of the Russian Elite Under Putin What We Know, What We Think We Know (But Don’T), and What We Need to Know
Problems of Post-Communism, vol. 65, no. 4, 2018, 221–232 Copyright © 2018 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC ISSN: 1075-8216 (print)/1557-783X (online) DOI: 10.1080/10758216.2017.1295812 The Militarization of the Russian Elite under Putin What We Know, What We Think We Know (but Don’t), and What We Need to Know David W. Rivera and Sharon Werning Rivera Department of Government, Hamilton College, Clinton, NY This article reviews the vast literature on Russia’s transformation into a “militocracy”—a state in which individuals with career experience in Russia’s various force structures occupy important positions throughout the polity and economy—during the reign of former KGB lieutenant colonel Vladimir Putin. We show that (1) elite militarization has been extensively utilized both to describe and explain core features of Russian foreign and domestic policy; and (2) notwithstanding its widespread usage, the militocracy framework rests on a rather thin, and in some cases flawed, body of empirical research. We close by discussing the remaining research agenda on this subject and listing several alternative theoretical frameworks to which journalists and policymakers arguably should pay equal or greater attention. In analyses of Russia since Vladimir Putin came to I was an officer for almost twenty years. And this is my own power at the start of the millennium, this master narrative milieu.… I relate to individuals from the security organs, from the Ministry of Defense, or from the special services as has been replaced by an entirely different set of themes. ’ if I were a member of this collective. —Vladimir Putin One such theme is Putin s successful campaign to remove (“Dovol’stvie voennykh vyrastet v razy” 2011) the oligarchs from high politics (via prison sentences, if necessary) and renationalize key components of the nat- In the 1990s, scholarly and journalistic analyses of Russia ural resource sector. -
Slavic Names Includes Names from Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine, and Others
Slavic Names Includes names from Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine, and others The following is an overview of naming conven- Family Name (Surname) tions in the Russian language as well as in languages Family names , like Putin, Yel’tsin or Gorbachyov, affected by Russian linguistic tradition. This relates to generally function in the same manner that English modern Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and others. family names do . They are generally inherited from It is obligatory for people to have three names: a one’s parents, although women may adopt the surname of given name, a patronymic, and a family name their husband or (very rarely) vice versa. Another (surname). uncommon practice is creating a double surname (for example, Mr. Ivanov and Ms. Petrova in their marriage Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin may take family names Ivanov-Petrov and Ivanova- first name patronymic family name. Petrova, respectively). As all Russian adjectives, they have different forms They are generally presented in that order, e.g. depending on gender —for example, the wife of Boris Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, where “Vladimir” is a first Yel’tsin is Naina Yel’tsin a. Note that this change of name, “Vladimirovich” (his father’s name is also grammatical gender is a characteristic of Slavic Vladimir) is a patronymic, and “Putin” is a family name. languages, and is not considered to be changing the name The ordering is not as strict in languages other than received from a woman’s father or husband. The correct Russian. transliteration of such feminine names in English is debated: sometimes women’s names are given in their Patronymic original form, sometimes in the masculine form The patronymic of a person is based on the first (technically incorrect, but more widely recognized). -
Putin's Offset
SEPTEMBER 2020 NATALIYA BUGAYOVA PUTIN’S OFFSET THE KREMLIN’S GEOPOLITICAL ADAPTATIONS SINCE 2014 MILITARY LEARNING AND THE FUTURE OF WAR SERIES Nataliya Bugayova, Institute for the Study of War PUTIN’S OFFSET THE KREMLIN’S GEOPOLITICAL ADAPTATIONS SINCE 2014 MILITARY LEARNING AND THE FUTURE OF WAR SERIES Cover: Russia's President Vladimir Putin, Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev and Belarus' President Alexander Lukashenko stand before posing for a group photo during the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) summit at the Kremlin in Moscow May 15, 2012. REUTERS/ Denis Sinyakov All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing or from the publisher. ©2020 by the Institute for the Study of War. Published in 2020 in the United States of America by the Institute for the Study of War. 1400 16th Street NW, Suite 515 | Washington, DC 20036 understandingwar.org ABOUT THE AUTHOR Nataliya Bugayova is a non-resident National Security Research Fellow at the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW). She led ISW's Russia and Ukraine research team from 2019-2020 and has been ISW’s Russia Research Fellow since 2018. Her work focuses on the Kremlin’s foreign policy decision-making, information opera- tions, and ongoing global campaigns - including in the former Soviet Union and Africa. She is the author of “How We Got Here with Russia: The Kremlin’s Worldview.” Her written work and inter- views have been featured in media outlets including The Hill, BBC, VOA, and others. -
Russian-Venezuelan Relations at a Crossroads Vladimir Rouvinski*
Latin American Program | Kennan Institute | February 2019 President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela receives a book in Russian about Hugo Chávez from President Vladimir Putin of Russia. Photo by www.kremlin.ru / Creative Commons 4.0 Russian-Venezuelan Relations at a Crossroads Vladimir Rouvinski* Russia’s foreign policy is part of a complex tapestry intended to bolster its current president, Vladimir Putin. Moscow’s relations with Venezuela are a prime example of this strategy. Russian engagement with the Bolivarian Republic demonstrates Vladimir Putin’s global ambitions to recruit geographically distant nations as partners in constructing a new multipolar, anti-U.S. world order. The Russian government has learned to bolster domestic support for Putin at home by taking advantage of situations unfolding in the Russian “far abroad” as elements of a political spectacle portraying Russia’s return as a global power. Russia’s relationship with Venezuela is also a story of missed business opportunities, multi-million dollar risky investments, dubious personal enrichment, and vast corruption. It also features denials, by a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, of massive human rights violations in Venezuela in the name of “21st Century Socialism.” Three key aspects of interaction between Moscow and Caracas are essential to understand the Russia’s policy toward the region and Venezuela in particular. First is Russia’s “return” to Latin America toward the end of the 1990s and subsequent events LATIN AMERICAN PROGRAM LATIN AMERICAN PROGRAM leading to the present challenges. Second is the role of political priorities rather than business interests that comprise the true guiding principles of the Russian involvement in the key sectors of the Venezuelan economy such as oil and gas. -
Anais-Marin-Union-State-Of-Belarus
ANAÏS MARIN THE UNION STATE OF BELARUS AND RUSSIA. MYTHS AND REALITIES OF POLITICAL-MILITARY INTEGRATION © 2020 Vilnius Institute for Policy Analysis www.vilniusinstitute.lt ISBN 978-609-8281-00-2 COVER: Presidential Press and Information Office THE UNION STATE OF BELARUS AND RUSSIA – BY ANAÏS MARIN TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................. 1 THE UNION STATE AT TWENTY ........................................................................................... 2 A dead-born vanity project ..................................................................................................... 3 Irreconcilable views ................................................................................................................. 3 From stalemate to ultimatum… and back to square one ....................................................... 5 DEBUNKING THREE BROTHERHOOD MYTHS ....................................................................... 7 Myth #1. “Belarus is Russia’s closest military ally” ................................................................. 7 Brothers in arms .................................................................................................................. 7 Cracks in the façade ............................................................................................................ 8 Belarus’ security dilemma and entrapment ........................................................................ 9 Disputes -
From Eurasia with Love: Russian Security Threats and Western Challenges
From Eurasia with Love Russian Security Threats and Western Challenges Stephen J. Blank The recent Ukrainian crisis displayed the US government’s woeful in- ability to think critically about the use of force for political and strate- gic objectives even without resorting to combat operations. Thus, we have ruled out deploying military forces in and around Ukraine, even as Moscow created a sizable force that could be used to invade but whose more likely task is to intimidate Kyiv and the West into surrendering Ukraine’s integrity and sovereignty. Clearly the United States does not appreciate the use of military force to deter credibly, show resolve, and threaten aggressive adversaries who have little or no reason to engage in actual combat to gain their objectives. It is merely deluding itself and its allies if the use of military force to help Ukraine defend itself, deter a Russian attack, and show credible resolve and deterrence is rejected out- right. Certainly failure to do so means de facto acquiescence in annexing Crimea, invasion, occupation, and the preceding acts of war. If the clas- sic purpose of US force deployments in Europe and Asia is to deter and reassure allies, this policy ranks as a stupendous strategic failure.1 There is no excuse for the US strategic failure in Eurasia except the long-standing defects in strategy and policy. Under the present circum- stances, complacency or retreat from Eurasia—predispositions that seem to be increasingly popular—are, in fact, the last thing the United States needs and will only worsen its current predicament.