DRAFT FINAL REPORT The World Bank ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN POST CONFLICT TRANSPORT STUDY
Table of Content
SUMMARY 1
BACKGROUND 2 General 2 Standards and quality of work 3 Road machinery and equipment 4
ARMENIA 6 1 Transport potential 6 1.1 Transport needs, 6 1.2 Transport fleet characteristics 6 1.3 Traffic estimates 6 2 Institutional capacity 7 2.1 Road sector institutions (Client functions) 7 2.2 Road design 8 2.3 Road maintenance 8 3 Rehabilitation and improvement program 12 3.1 Road inspection and condition survey 12 3.2 Rehabilitation and reconstruction program 13 3.3 Program components 14 3.4 Institutional development needs and recommended actions 15
AZERBAIJAN 17 4 Transport potential 17 4.1 Transport needs, 17 4.2 Transport fleet characteristics 17 4.3 Traffic estimates 18 5 Institutional capacity 18 5.1 Road sector institutions (Client functions) 18 5.2 Road design 19 5.3 Road maintenance 20 6 Rehabilitation and improvement program 25 6.1 Road inspection and condition survey. 25 6.2 Rehabilitation and reconstruction program 26 6.3 Rehabilitation and reconstruction program in the conflict area. 26 6.4 Coordination of rehabilitation of the Occupied Zone 28 6.5 Improvement of roads outside the Conflict Zone 30 6.6 Program components 30 6.7 Institutional development needs and recommended actions. 33
APPENDICES 34
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Summary When "The Great Peace" occurs, two things will happen, which affects the need for roads and roadwork: Resettling in the evacuated areas Increased flows of goods and people between countries Resettling is not a major problem in Armenia, where the number of refugees is small, and where the refugees are said to have settled elsewhere in Armenia or abroad and have no intentions to move back to their previous locations. The situation is worse in Azerbaijan, where there is a large number of refugees, to a great extent living in temporary and primitive camps. The so-called "Occupied Area" comprises 13 thousand square kilometres, with a road network of 4500 kms. ARRA has estimated that this entire network has to be rehabilitated and some 110 bridges have to be renovated. The total cost is estimated at 200 MUSD exclusive of the cost for the bridges. Our estimate of the costs for urgent repairs to facilitate resettlement is 95 MUSD. The needs in a second phase, some years after resettlement has started, are estimated at some 185 MUSD. Annual maintenance costs for the roads concerned in Azerbaijan are estimated at 2.7 MUSD/year. The needs for urgent road repairs in the conflict zone in the northeast of Armenia are estimated at 3 MUSD. For the international traffic there are some potentially important links, for which required detailed planning should start. Roughly estimated costs to open the links is shown in parenthesis. Total costs are estimated at 10 -15 MUSD. 1. Sevan - Dilian - Gazakh connecting Armenia and Azerbaijan and forming a link in an important international network. (4 MUSD) 2. Gyumri - Turkey border will become a part in the same link and opening up a direct link between Armenia and Turkey. (Urgent repairs: 1 MUSD) 3. Construction of the missing link of the road along the Iran border connecting Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan. (8 MUSD) Agdam - Stepanakert - Goris - Nakhichevan could also be a link worthwhile to study. Generally, it is recommended that road maintenance should be given first priority, which pays back immediately in lower traffic costs, Construction of new roads should be proved economically feasible and implemented according to good international standard and procedures. International support, money and expertise, is needed to solve the acute situation in the conflict zone in Azerbaijan. The expertise should involve coordination of the restoration, planning, implementation, audit and follow up. The heritage from the FSU still affects the public sector management, quality of work and supply and handling of plant and equipment and needs support to remedy.
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The situation is an excellent opportunity to make environmental ambitions real. Background
General The Southern Caucasus region concerned consists of the three former Soviet republics Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, surrounded by Turkey, Russia and Iran. The main conflict affecting the region is the one between Armenia and Azerbaijan with the two areas Karabakh and Nakhichevan. Other relations between neighbours are however not entirely without problems.
GEORGIA
ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN
Major conflict area
Figure 1 Southern Caucasus region (Source: Map from TRACECA web site) Some main statistical data about the Armenia and Azerbaijan are shown in the table below
Country Area, Population Gross Motor Vehicle Road Network 103 km2 Domestic Fleet length Product, Number, 106 % in major Density, USD*106 All vehicles 103 kms cities inh/km2 103
Armenia 29.7 3.5 67% 118 9.2 245 6.2 Azerbaijan 86.6 7.7 53% 89 12.9 420 24.3
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!) (1998 est. purchasing power parity)
This study is based on the vision that there is peace in the region and that goods and people can move freely within, between and through the countries concerned. Field work including collection of data and information from interviews with representatives of various organisations and institutions and from inspections of open roads was executed during a two and half week visit to the two countries by the three-man team. The team consisted of Frank Granberg, Sigitas Bublis and Arne Nilsson. Mr. Michael Sims has been engaged for literature research. The Dorproject institute in Yerevan and the Scientific Research Center in Baku were engaged for providing various services and organising meetings. Data is frequently quoted from earlier TACIS and TRACECA studies as well as The World Bank web site. Maps from the TRACECA web site are used in the report. The report is organised in three sections, a common general background and one section each for Armenia and Azerbaijan respectively. Notes and references are contained in Appendix. Armenia and Azerbaijan like most FSU countries have inherited a low standard and quality of work and an outmoded and worn out set of plant and equipment from the previous era. Below are some general remarks on these two subjects.
Standards and quality of work GOST and SN&P, the standards which were valid in the former Soviet Union, are still used as the basis for road design and construction standards and norms in both Azerbaijan and Armenia. Although the above standards are rather rigid and the conducted construction material tests do not essentially differ from European/Western test standards, low quality or non-standard construction materials are still being used in road construction. It is necessary to implement a control and quality system to ensure long service life of all the road components (earth banks, foundations, road pavements, bridges, traffic safety means, etc.). The system would include construction material tests and continuous supervision of construction activities. Though the personnel seems to have adequate technical-theoretical knowledge, the understanding of quality management is essentially low, and the different level managers' opinion about quality of construction materials and construction activities is often too optimistic and totally ungrounded by European/Western experience. It would thus be reasonable to arrange training for the staff at different levels in the areas of construction material testing and quality management (as a whole system) which also would include road maintenance aspects. It is recommended to improve road pavement design methods and calculation of pavement resistance, considering bitumen materials in use, ways and measures of their improvement, aggregate quality, etc. At the same time it is necessary to evaluate the impact of vehicles on the pavement (axle load norms, traffic intensity, vehicle flow composition, etc.).
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Alongside with the increased service life of road pavements this would enable a more efficient and economical road construction and maintenance in general. The conclusion is that inadequate standards and low road construction quality is caused by the following: · inadequate technologies of road pavement design · use of non-standard materials · low quality of work · inadequate machinery and equipment. In some cases western standards are introduced used in road construction field. E.g., in Armenia new road standards are being worked out based on Finnish and American standards. Some of these standards are applied in practice in road design and road construction. Preparation of new standards has not started in Azerbaijan yet. It is only in some separate cases that Turkish standards are applied. Application of certain advanced standard is not yet formally legalized neither in Armenia nor Azerbaijan, and this is likely to cause problems in the future. Standards for Traffic safety and Environment protection are not implemented. The laboratory equipment available in both the countries seems to be adequate for conducting most laboratory tests according to GOST standard requirements. Laboratory facilities are replenished with new more modern equipment (funded mostly from loans received for road construction projects) but this process is rather slow, especially in Armenia. Azerbaijan has recently ordered new equipment (amounting to 70.000 USD) to be used for testing bitumen and asphalt concrete materials. Another problem is reliability of laboratory activities, honesty factor taken into account. The procedure of making decisions in case of negative laboratory tests remains unclear. It is possible that laboratory test results have only informative character to the authorities, and no or only minor improvements are being made on their basis to correct the shortcomings. For a more effective use of funds it is suggested that experienced foreign cunsulting companies are engaged for supervision of major road construction projects. Consultants should be selected through international tendering. Local consulting companies might participate in the projects on subcontract basis.
Road machinery and equipment Most of the road construction and maintenance machinery and equipment currently available is obsolete or worn-out. The majority was manufactured in the former Soviet Union before 1990. There is no machinery acquired after 1990. The companies are rather small, - e.g., the company located in Ijevan has 2 excavators, 3 bulldozers, 2 graders, 1 asphalt paver, 2 rollers, hot mix asphalt plant, crushing-screening plant for ballast manufacturing. Other companies in both Armenia and Azerbaijan have similar equipment. Service and maintenance of machinery is inadequate. After the working season neither regular maintenance nor technical inspection of the equipment is made. E.g., the asphalt
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pavers have not even been cleaned after the season, and remains of asphalt can be seen. The looks of machinery and production units is poor. The World Bank loan received in Armenia (2 612 175 USD) has been used for acquisition of various western road construction and maintenance equipment. This equipment is currently administered by a special company, the Plant Pool, under subordination of the Ministry of Transport of the Republic of Armenia. It can be stated that the equipment is maintained fairly well. The biggest problem is the insufficient use of the equipment. The use is sometimes less than 20% of available time. One of the main reasons is the high rental price, which makes the economically poor contractor companies reluctant to rent this equipment. There seems to be no intention to assemble and start operation of the emulsion plant which has been acquired for 358 811 USD. The main problem is that the advantage and the technique of using emulsion is not yet generally accepted. Leading road sector officials in both countries seem to be too optimistic about the capacities of the contractor companies, overlooking their engineering, technical and quality shortcomings.
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Armenia
1 Transport potential
1.1 Transport needs, Under the Soviet system, Armenia had a functioning industrial sector supplying machine tools, textiles and other manufactured goods to other republics in exchange for raw materials and energy. The industrial sector collapsed in conjunction with the implosion of the USSR in 1991. In 1998, the GDP (purchasing power parity) was estimated at USD 9.2 billion and was composed by agriculture 35 %, industry 30 % and services 35 %. The exports in 1998 were estimated at USD 230 million f.o.b., consisting of mainly gold and jewellery, aluminium, transport equipment, electrical equipment and scrap metal. Armenia's main export partners were Iran, Russia, Turkmenistan and Georgia. For the same year the imports were estimated at USD 840 million c.i.f., consisting of mainly grain and other food products, fuel and other energy. Import partners were the same as the export partners mentioned above plus USA and EU.
1.2 Transport fleet characteristics The transport fleet consists of 175 thousand passenger cars, 11 thousand buses and 56 thousand trucks. The age of the fleet is high; a majority of the vehicles are from the Soviet era. There is an ongoing modernisation of the passenger car stock; European, Japanese and Korean cars are imported. The modernisation of the bus and truck fleet is slow. The demand for taking over of old state owned trucking enterprises is very low, and there are no significant signs of the development of a modern, competitive trucking industry. Turkish, Iran and other foreign trucks dominate the long haul, international truck traffic.
1.3 Traffic estimates Traffic on the road network in Armenia is comparatively moderate in rural areas. The heaviest traffic measured in the TRACECA study "Regional Traffic Forecasting Model" (Data Collection Report, Appendix D1 Armenia, Table II.2) in 1996 was on the link Ashtarak to Yerevan with 10200 vpd and a truck percentage of 25. The most trafficked crossing to Georgia had 2230 vpd and 38% trucks. If new border crossing are opened to Turkey, it seems likely that there will be a couple of thousand vehicles per day at the most, but with a high percentage of trucks, say close to 40 %. Traffic will likely consist of the dominating export and import goods mentioned above. For crossings to Azerbaijan in the north-east, traffic is estimated to be relatively light and dominated by farm products. Crossings through Karabakh area might be of interest for heavier traffic for import of oil and related products. Traffic may be estimated at a few thousand vehicles per day, including traffic to and from Karabakh, with a moderate truck percentage say 25-30 %. Traffic of returning
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refugees will most likely not be a major problem. Truck traffic for restoration of housing and infrastructure in war damaged areas is not expected to create any major problems; they will be accommodated on a decent two lane road. 2 Institutional capacity
2.1 Road sector institutions (Client functions) The responsibility for the road sector is under the Ministry of Transport and Communications organised as shown below.
MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATIONS
Minister Board
Advisor Chief Advisor Vice Minister Vice Minister Vice Minister Vice Minister
Board of Finances The First Board of Automobil Board of Ministers Staff and Economics Department Transport Communication
Board of Labour Department of Board of Board of Foreign Department of and Structural Military and Mobile Passemger Relations Telecommunication Reform Affairs Transport
Department of Board of Department of Board of Post Department Financial and Transportation Investment and Cargo transport Business Activities Construction Analysis Programmes
Department of Accounts Office Department of Tech. Personnel Routes Control Resources and Legal Board Department Information Systems
Board of General Department of Affairs Technical Policy Department of Licensing and Anti- Monopoly Policy General Privatisation Department Department Department of Communications Licensing Department of Programs Department of Development Transport Licensing
Department of Civil Department of Aviation Armenian Railways
Figure 2 Armenian Ministry of Transport and Communications Under the Ministry there is a Government owned company - Armenian Roads SSCC - which exercises the client function for purchasing road design maintenance and construction for state road network. The main problem for the road sector is insufficient funds, which is especially serious for the maintenance of roads. The road network, in particular the secondary network, is disintegrating due to lack of routine and periodic maintenance. The competence of the SSCC seems sufficient, although the lack of funds makes it difficult to prove.
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2.2 Road design Road design and other surveys are done by the state owned institute "Dorproject". The institute has competent staff and equipment and capacity to produce documents and surveys of acceptable quality.
2.3 Road maintenance
2.3.1 Organization Road maintenance is carried out by the local construction and maintenance units in accordance with primitive negotiated contracts from the Road Authority. The intention is that the construction and maintenance units should carry out maintenance works by contracts awarded by the Road authority. However, the lack of maintenance funds has so far hampered the implementation of such procedures. A pilot project is planned to be launched this year, which comprises maintenance of roads in one area for a contract period of one year. Such a short contract period will give opportunity for training of procedures in client/ contractor relations, but will not allow any competition by different contractors. Mobilisation of staff and equipment and establishment in a new area is such a big fixed cost for a new contractor, that he needs at least a 3-years contract period to be able to compete with a contractor already established in an area. As soon as maintenance funds permit the Road Authority intends to extend the contract periods. Winter maintenance is carried out from some 20 winter maintenance depots situated all over the main road network. Acquisition of some modern winter maintenance equipment has been carried out and is available through the Plant Pool. Judged from information presented by the Plant Pool these pieces of equipment have low utilization due to high rental prices. Information about the Plant Pool is given in below.
2.3.2 Maintenance expenditures During a period of several years, maintenance expenditures have been very low, urgent repairs and winter maintenance are almost the only activities, which have been carried out. For this year (2000) some funds are distributed to Routine maintenance. In addition to that 6 MUSD are distributed to a program for rehabilitation and new overlays on paved roads. This program is presented in section 3.2.
2.3.3 Maintenance standard and road and bridge condition. Our assessments of the present maintenance standard are based on findings during travel and inspections on some 800 kms, mostly on the main roads. Roads inspected includes roads in the north east area along the Azerbaijan border which are of interest for resettlements. What was found in general during our travel and inspections is the lack of routine maintenance, which is shown by the existing backlog in pavement patching and pothole repairs. Other findings to be mentioned are insufficient SWEROAD 8(64) 24 August, 2000 DRAFT FINAL REPORT The World Bank ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN POST CONFLICT TRANSPORT STUDY
drainage, poor or missing traffic safety installations and lack of bridge maintenance. Neglected bridge maintenance is of major concern as it can cause traffic hazards and expensive repairs. Regular bridge inspections and routine maintenance is of utmost importance for preservation of the capital invested. One can also expect that overloading of bridges is frequent. Recommendations on bridge management are presented in section 3.4. On the positive side should be mentioned that the alignment and cross-section are mostly good or acceptable for the traffic expected in the nearest future. In addition to that there are sections with good or acceptable pavement condition. Its important that these sections and other sections which will be rehabilitated are subject to proper routine maintenance in order to prevent fast deterioration. Proposals to improve the Winter Maintenance Standard in Armenia have been presented in TRACECA PROJECT 19, Road Maintenance, Module B, Winter Maintenance (Armenia and Azerbaijan). Recommended levels of service and summary of estimated costs and benefits are presented in Appendix 6. However, it should already now be mentioned that the best benefits are achieved by minimizing the number of road closures. Acquisition of some modern winter maintenance equipment has been carried out and is available through the Plant Pool. Judged from information presented by the Plant Pool these pieces of equipment have low utilization due to high rental prices. Information about the Plant Pool is given in section 2.3.5.
2.3.4 Maintenance Management Systems A Pavement Management System (PMS) and a Bridge Management System (BMS) were introduced to the Road Administration as a TRACECA project during the period of October 1996 to August 1997. A small number of technical staff from the Planning Dept. and the Dorproject participated in the seminars for introduction and training. This PMS system has never become functional. A new, HDM4 based system is being developed in cooperation with Birmingham University. The different pieces of equipment for field works introduced during the seminars were Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD), Axle Weight Bridges, Bump Integrator and the MERLIN. Dorproject is using FWD together with the Overlay Calculation Program for estimates of thickness layer on rehabilitation and resurfacing projects. In addition to that the HDM program has been used in the planning of the Resurfacing program for year 2000, which is presented in section 3.2.
2.3.5 Plant and equipment for maintenance, rehabilitation and reconstruction - Plant Pool The Plant Pool is responsible for acquisition, maintenance and letting of plant and equipment. The major part of the existing equipment comprises old and worn Russian made machinery, which have reach the end of the technical lifespan. Especially crusher- and Hot Mix plants are in need of up-dating in order to produce good quality materials in an environmentally safe way. The same applies to the SWEROAD 9(64) 24 August, 2000 DRAFT FINAL REPORT The World Bank ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN POST CONFLICT TRANSPORT STUDY
existing asphalt concrete finishers and rollers, which also were in need of proper maintenance.
New equipment for winter maintenance and 3 new SISU trucks have been delivered to the Plant Pool. Various pieces of equipment for surface dressing or sealing were also available at Plant Pool. These comprise 3 bitumen distributors, 3 bitumen transport tanks, chip spreaders and rubber wheel rollers. The surface dressing equipment has been used in the maintenance programme for the main road network, mainly financed by WB funds. In addition one piece of Savalco equipment for spray patching was available. We were told that new equipment for manufacturing of emulsified bitumen had been delivered but not in operation. A new German make traffic line marking equipment for paint had also been delivered. However, these new plant and equipment had so far been sparsely utilized, mainly due to insufficient maintenance funds. Relatively high rental prices and lack of proper introduction can be other reasons. Normally, use of new equipment, methods and techniques result in more efficient production, better quality and lower unit costs. Generally, the awareness of the quality requirements in all stages of planning and performance of production has to be improved.
2.3.6 Materials for maintenance, rehabilitation and reconstruction of roads and bridges, specifications and testing. Requirements on materials are in accordance with Russian specifications. Crushed material for base course, concrete ballast and aggregates for surface dressing is produced locally. The rock materials used are either natural gravel or drilled and blasted rock. The Crusher plants, which we visited, included one jaw crusher and one cone crusher and a power screen. The produced aggregates were of various quality, high portion of flaky aggregates, high portion of soft rock materials and uncrushed aggregates when natural gravel was crushed. Bitumen for asphalt concrete and surface dressing is imported from Iran. Portland cement is produced in Armenia. Dorproject has laboratory, equipment and skilled staff for testing of all kinds of materials. Testing of bitumen and asphalt concrete are most common. The most common reason for failure among asphalt concrete samples is ballast gradation, which doesn’t meet specifications.
2.3.7 Resources for design, planning, tendering and supervision of rehabilitation, reconstruction and periodic maintenance. The Road Administration presently employs Dorproject in most of their projects. The Road Administration seems to have necessary resources for the overall administration and management. They rely on the engineering resources of Dorproject concerning design, tendering and supervision. Dorproject has enough resources, equipment and engineering skill to cope with the present and a moderate increased demand of services. The department for design has a computer network and is using the CREDO system (widely used
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Belarus made system with good reputation) for road design FWD and HDM-3 are used for calculations and analyses for establishment of rehabilitation and maintenance programs. The laboratory is properly equipped and staffed, but presently not fully employed due to the low amount of ongoing projects. We don’t have information about the content in a possible bank of designed projects waiting financing and performance. To facilitate an even workload on the design resources, identification and finance of the design of future important projects should be much desired.
2.3.8 The contractor industry. The contractor industry consists of companies, which cover all areas of the country.
Minister of Transport and Communication
There are a total of 44 Road Construction Companies, of which 21 are privatised. Of the remaining 23, 17 are in the process of being privatised. Main Contractor
Client Armenian Roads State Joint Stock Companies
23 State Road Construction Companies Contractor
Figure 3 Privatisation of the Road sector In some cases these Contractor companies also include Transport companies. The intended privatization of these companies has not met much interest by possible private investors. The equipment is to the major part old, worn and in need of repairs or replacement. Some new equipment is available through the Plant Pool, but the contractors seem to be reluctant to rent that. The management and technical skills of the contractors and their senior staff are difficult to predict. Due to limited funds they have neither been fully employed nor faced any real competition on an open market. There is a risk that the present underemployment will result in decreased efficiency, bad workmanship
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and lack of experienced personnel. However, the fact that a contract was awarded to a domestic contractor after international tendering is a good sign of ability to compete with contractors in the region. One can predict that the present Armenian contractor industry has enough capacity to perform an increased annual rehabilitation and maintenance program and in addition to that rehabilitation and reconstruction of roads in resettlement areas. The main problem might be to meet increased quality demands.
3 Rehabilitation and improvement program
3.1 Road inspection and condition survey Road inspections have been carried out during travel on some 800 kms of mostly main roads in Armenia. The main northbound roads from Yerevan to Azerbaijan border and from Yerevan to Georgian border respectively have been either inspected or travelled. I addition to that some local roads have been inspected in the conflict area north of Ijevan close to the Azerbaijan border, as far as permitted due to the safety situation. Furthermore main roads west bound from Yerevan and roads along the Turkey border have been inspected. A summary of the roads travelled and findings are presented in the following table.
Road link Kms Alignment Pavement Traffic installations The main road M4 Yerevan – Sevan 65 Good Acceptable/ Poor/ Missing Poor Sevan – Sevan Pass 12 Accept. Poor/ Bad Poor/ Missing Sevan Pass-Dilijan 11 Poor Poor Bad/ Missing Dilijan-Ijevan 40 Accept. Poor Bad/ Missing Ijevan – AZ border 20 Good Good Bad/ Missing Local roads Main road – Tzaghkavan 10 Accept. Poor Missing Main road – Vazashen 6 Accept. Bad Missing Ijevan – Gandzakar 4 Poor Bad Missing Ashtrak – Spitak 80 Good Good/ Accept. Poor/ Missing Spitak – Georgian Border 120 Accept./ Poor Accept./ Poor Bad/ Missing (See also note below) Yerevan – Talin 55 Good Accept./ Poor Poor Aragatz – Gyumri 50 Good Poor/ Bad Missing Gyumri – Turkey Border 10 Bad Bad Missing Gyumri – Talin 50 Good Good/ Accept. Poor Talin – Karakert 20 Accept./ Poor Poor/ Bad Missing Karakert – Ashtrak 65 Good Good/ Accept. Poor Note: It should be mentioned that the road on the Georgian side to Tbilisi is in a very bad condition, parts of it hardly trafficable by passenger cars. Further information and comments are given in Appendix 5
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3.2 Rehabilitation and reconstruction program There is a Rehabilitation and resurfacing program for year 2000 to an estimated cost of 6 MUSD, financed through a part of a WB loan. At present the works are under domestic tendering and are due to commence in July. Details of the program are given below.
Border crossing Border crossing R 32 Conflict area R 30
R 13
R 8 R 3
R 42
Year 2000 reconstruction
Year 2000 rehabilitation and resurfacing program Conflict area road to be rehabilitated and
Figure 4 Rehabilitation programme for Armenia (Source: Map from TRACECA web site)
Road No Road name Length km R 3 Yerevan – Garni - Gegart 23.0 R 8 Yerevan – Artashat – Aigevan 5.1 R 13 Ejmiacin – Masis 10.0 R 30 M 4 – Chambarak – Drakhtic 18.0 R 32 Gyumri – Kaps – Amasia 10.0 R 42 M 2 – Gndevaz – Jermuk 26.0 TOTAL 92.1
Presently there are no Armenian refugees living in camps. People who want to resettle in the conflict areas seems to be limited to thus which have left villages close to the Azerbaijan border NW and NE of Ijevan. To facilitate resettlement
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and further development in these areas two roads have to be rehabilitated and partly reconstructed namely: 1. The road from M4 near the Azerbaijan border and north-west trough the villages of Acharcut and Berdavan to the main road to Georgia. The section in need of rehabilitation is the first 20 kms from M4. The cost of rehabilitation, based on findings during our road inspection, including a new overlay, but assuming that no major bridge repairs are needed, should be some 50 000 USD per km. Thus the total rehabilitation cost for these 20 kms should be some 1 MUSD. 2. The road from M4 at Ijevan through the village of Gandzakar to the town of Berd some 25 kms. This road is in need of rehabilitation of the first some 4 kms from Ijevan including reshaping, new drainage facilities and new asphalt concrete binder and wearing courses. The remaining 21 kms have to be reconstructed from the existing gravel/ earth road to a paved road. As a new wearing course a double chip seal should be considered as an alternative to an asphalt concrete layer. New equipment for surface dressing and chip seal is available at the Plant Pool. The costs for rehabilitation of the first 4 kms is estimated to some 50 000 USD per km. The reconstruction costs of the 21 kms of the road have to be properly estimated based on an inventory of necessary activities and road standard requirements. However, a rough assessment should be some 60 000 USD per km assuming that no new bridges are needed. Thus the total cost of rehabilitation and reconstruction of these 25 kms should be some 2 MUSD. After signing of a Great Peace Agreement improvement of some international links can be required like: Sevan – Dilijan to get proper connection to road M4 in Azerbaijan, Gyumri - Turkey border, parts of a future Silk road, and others close to border crossing. At present there is no detailed planning under way on these links. Most expensive sections on these links are construction of Sevan Pass tunnel and construction of a new road between Gyumri and Turkey border including new bridges.
3.3 Program components 1. Reconstruction and rehabilitation of 45 kms of roads in the conflict area at a roughly estimated cost of 2.5 MUSD, exc. possible costs for bridges. The Dorproject institute is most likely capable to make program and required tender documents for the roads in the conflict area. Local contractors should be capable of the roadworks involved. 2. Completion of tunnel in the Sevan Pass (8 MUSD) and rehabilitation of connecting roads to tunnel in the link Sevan - Dilijan - (Gazakh), 25 kms at an estimated cost for road rehabilitation of 3 MUSD. Pavement rehabilitation of road Dilijan - Ijivan, 40 kms at an estimated cost of 3 MUSD. Rehabilitation of road to Kazakh (Gazakh), 20 kms at an estimated cost of 1 MUSD. 3. Urgent repairs to link Gyumri - Turkish border to open border are estimated at 1 MUSD. Load restrictions on bridges and corresponding
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road rehabilitation on Turkish side might be required. In a second phase new bridges and culverts and bypasses are required for this link with costs in the order of 2 -3 MUSD. For projects involving construction of new roads to open up links for international traffic and which require deeper studies, international consultants should be engaged, preferably in cooperation with Dorproject for detailed design and contract documents. International consultants should be involved in contract supervision. The projects will probably require financing through foreign loans or grants, with the connected procedures for international tendering and implementation.
3.3.1 Employment effects Road projects have a positive effect on local employment and economy, especially if labour based work organisation is applied. The situation and the character of road projects in Armenia mean that these effects are limited. The situation in Azerbaijan is different and more positive from these aspects. See section 6.6.2. Better roads and communications means that the area for a labour market widens and offers more job opportunities.
3.3.2 Environmental aspects Environmental aspects should be integrated in the land use planning process for rehabilitation of roads as well as other infrastructure. The techniques for EIA, Environmental Impact should be applied. In the rehabilitation activities there is a need for material for road construction and maintenance and for houses and other construction. The use of gravel pits and other new sources of natural material should be restricted. Material from abandoned buildings and industries should be used wherever possible. Contaminated land, waste and garbage deposits, abandoned vehicles and other scrap should be taken care of. The design of new roads should consider the risks for landslides and erosion, damage to the ground water through tunnelling and other similar activities. In maintenance proper drainage should be preserved. Special care should be exercised in the location of asphalt plants for road purposes.
3.4 Institutional development needs and recommended actions As far as maintenance is concerned, areas in need of development are: · Management of the Plant Pool in general and the rental prices in particular in order to increase utilization of plant and equipment. · Bridge management, by introduction of regular bridge inspections, enhanced bridge maintenance and measures to avoid overloading. · Maintenance Policies; the relations between properly maintained roads and the Road Users’ willingness to pay for that service and the cost/
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benefit for the road authority to prolong the road life-span e.g. it is cheaper to repair a small pothole than a big one, it is cheaper to prevent damages than make repairs. · Improved quality in the whole chain of production from planning and specifications through design, tendering, prequalification of contractors, supervision and control, materials and equipment to improved workmanship. The organisation of the Ministry of Communications as shown in the diagram in section 2.1 does not give an impression of high efficiency. When the country's economy improves and the funds required become available for an economically sound Road Sector programme the demand for efficiency will be applicable also for the Ministry. It could be worth while to have a qualified management consultant to make a serious analysis of the situation at that high level and make a programme for organisation development and management training.
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Azerbaijan
4 Transport potential
4.1 Transport needs, The dominating industry in Azerbaijan is based on the oil and gas fields in the Caspian Sea and its coast area. There is a potential of developing this much further, which would create more valuable export products than just export of crude oil and more road transport than now replacing some of the crude oil transport on rail. At present most former industries seems to be abandoned. In any case they would probably not meet today's environmental requirements. Most new establishment would have to start from scratch. Besides oil an important export is cotton. In 1998, the GDP (purchasing power parity) was estimated at USD 12.9 billion and was composed by agriculture 22 %, industry 18 % and services 60 %. The exports in 1997 were estimated at USD 781 million f.o.b., consisting of mainly oil and gas, chemicals, oilfield equipment, textiles and cotton. Azerbaijan's main export partners were CIS and European countries, and Turkey. For the same year the imports were estimated at USD 794 million c.i.f., consisting of machinery and parts, consumer durables, foodstuff and textiles. Import partners were the same as the export partners mentioned.
4.2 Transport fleet characteristics The composition of the vehicle fleet in Azerbaijan is shown in the table below.
Area Total Of which 103 Cars, 103 Buses, 103 Trucks, 103 All Azerbaijan 420 325 15 80
Of which in 64 43.6 4.4 16 occupied zone
The rate of car ownership is relatively low; there are only 5-6 vehicles per 100 inhabitants. Most of the trucks and busses are old and not in the best condition. In Baku there is a proportion of modern imported cars type Mercedes and various Korean and Japanese makes, but the majority of cars is imported from Russia or remaining from the Soviet era. There seems presently to be few modern heavy loading trucks, which could compete for freight on an international market. Transit traffic is dominated by trucks mainly from Iran and Turkey, but also from countries like Bulgaria. This indicates that there are possibilities to widen the local market to outside the borders. The State Concern
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responsible for these questions is Azerautonagliyat, which is very much participating in an international network of transport organisations and institutions.
4.3 Traffic estimates General road and traffic statistics from Azerbaijan and some data about the refugee situation is found in Appendix 7. The heaviest traffic shown in the TRACECA study "Regional Traffic Forecasting Model" (Data Collection Report, Appendix D2 Azerbaijan, Table II.2) in 1996 was on the link Alyat to Baku with 16968 vpd and a truck and bus percentage of 60. The main crossing to Georgia had 6427 vpd and 60% trucks, and the main road from Kazah to Alyat recorded between 8000 and 12000 vpd and a truck and bus percentage over 60%. According to this source traffic has increased with 35 -100 % from 1990 to 1996. These figures do not seem reliable. Other figures, which seem more realistic, are found in KOCKS Consult's feasibility study for rehabilitation of the road Alyat - Ganja - Georgian border. ADT 1997 is estimated at 4500 to 6000 vpd, with a truck and bus percentage of around 30 %. Traffic is estimated to grow by 6.7 % annually until year 2010 and 6.0 % thereafter. Traffic on other roads than this main highway is most likely much less, except for road sections in the vicinity of Baku, where very high traffic figures can be expected. There are advanced plans for construction of a Baku bypass. Traffic on the road link to Nakhichevan could be in the order of 4000 vpd or less and the road to Agdam and Karabakh something like 5000 vpd at the most. Truck percentage could be as high as 35-40 %. A decent 2-lane road would be able to accommodate such volumes of traffic without any major problems. Occasional traffic congestion by construction traffic and returning refugees might occur during a limited period in the start of the rehabilitation programme. Traffic forecasts made by consultants leads to the assumption that there will be a 5-10% annual increase in traffic volumes on the roads in general. The economic development is the key factor. This also goes for traffic crossing the borders, where it requires that there is a good economic growth both in Azerbaijan and the region as a whole to result in a substantial traffic increase.
5 Institutional capacity
5.1 Road sector institutions (Client functions) The Road Sector is presently organised under the Cabinet of Ministers. The organisation has been subject for a comprehensive study by Finnroad. So far not very much of the implementation seems to have occurred, but the German Dornie Consult has started a TACIS financed project to establish a Transport Ministry in Azerbaijan. So far there is no Minister appointed yet, but there seems to be discussions about creating agencies like a Highway Agency. The present structure is shown in the diagram below.
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President 73 Local organisations
47 Road Maintenance Companies Vice President Vice President 7 Companies for Local Roads
Personell Administration 6 Road Construction Companies
Long Term Road 3 Bridge Construction Planning & Reconstruction & Companies Economy Construction
Equipment & 3 Industrial Companies Road Maintenance Supply 4 Research, Design & Engineering & Accounts Replenishment Companies Foreign Relations 1 Bord for Engineering Support Legal Advisor Supervision on Construction
2 Bord for Supply for Roads
Figure 5 Present organisation of the Road Sector in Azerbaijan
The present organisation is not well suited for a modern management of the road sector. In our opinion it will take several years to arrive at an efficient set-up for the sector. It is not only a matter of drawing new department on paper and introducing sophisticated techniques. It is very much a mental process that has to take place, changing attitudes and values. A Road Fund is set up, but so far only the tax collecting part of it seems to be functioning.
5.2 Road design The SRC, the Scientific Research Center, does design, feasibility studies, scientific work on roads and standards, road and bridge investigations, materials testing. Since 1995 the Center has worked with TACIS and TRACECA projects with KOCKS, Scott Wilson, Wilbur Smith and Finnroad. Some 30 people are employed at the Center. They seem competent and have capacity to participate in a comprehensive programme for road rehabilitation in conjunction with a peace situation. Additional consult capacity will be needed, however.
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5.3 Road maintenance
5.3.1 Organization Road maintenance is carried out by the local maintenance units in accordance with orders from the Road Authority. The intention is that the maintenance units should carry out maintenance works by contracts awarded by the Road authority. However, the lack of maintenance funds has so far hampered the implementation of such procedures. A model for inspection and survey of routine maintenance works carried out by the local maintenance units as to quality and level of service has been established. Visual surveys should be carried out twice a year by work groups. A work group is consisting of one representative from the Regional Road Management Agency, one from the Road Police’s, DYP's regional office and one from the Local Maintenance Unit and carries out a visual survey covering the whole road network in their responsibility. They prepare a document of the road conditions and the deficiencies to be repaired and give the document to the Local Maintenance Unit to be executed. Whether the model is in common use or not has not been verified. Winter maintenance consists of snow removal and de-icing of roads. Most of the 4000 km of mountainous road sections must be kept open also during the winter.
5.3.2 Maintenance expenditures
General: During the 1990s Road maintenance expenditures where at its highest 1995 when the annual expenditures were some 34.4 MUSD (actual expenditures recalculated from Manats to USD using June 2000 exchange rate). From that level expenditures decreased to some 8 MUSD in the budget estimates for 1997. The table below shows further details for the period 1994 - 1997. Amounts are in MUSD: 1994 1995 1996 1997 (est.) Total 3.9 34.4 28.4 7.9 Maintenance and repair 1.3 11.2 9.1 3.4 Contracts 2.4 18.7 13.5 3.1 Other 0.2 4.5 5.81.4 Source: TRACECA final report Road Maintenance, Module C Ten Year Maintenance Plans: A Ten Year Maintenance Plan has been proposed for the period of 1999 to 2008 by the TRACECA Roads Maintenance final report, Module C. An extract
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from the report is attached as Appendix 6 .The plan was based on the objectives defined in that report, which read: · Within the next five years, the policy applied to the Local roads and the A-roads should be to preserve the asset value of the network; and · Following the programme for resurfacing, 1.1.2003 at least 75 % of the Baku – Georgian border, Baku – Astara and Baku - Russian border roads are in at least good condition. The plan includes Periodic maintenance, Routine maintenance and Purchase of equipment for Road maintenance. The proposed annual budgets for the period are between 48 – 63 MUSD. 3 MUSD is proposed annually for Purchase of equipment and the remainder is distributed approximately 50/ 50 to Periodic and Routine maintenance respectively. Periodic maintenance includes resurfacing and some improvement of bearing capacity. During the five years of the period only the main roads listed above will be subjects to resurfacing. The programme is for different reasons much behind schedule, one of which might be that the projects have been more comprehensive than first expected including more reconstruction and rehabilitation works. The revised programme presented by the Road Authority is presented in section 6.2.
5.3.3 Maintenance standard and road and bridge condition Our assessment of the present maintenance is based on findings when travelling some 900 kms on the main road including the Baku – Georgian border. Amongst the roads travelled are A23 and part of A33, which are of major interest for resettlement in the conflict area and for future road connection to Nakhichevan. In addition we have studied various TRACECA reports and in general we can verify the maintenance standards described in these reports. The roads where constructed during the Former Soviet Union period to generally adequate design standards for the present traffic. However, poor drainage installations, poor compacting, poor control, and poor quality materials have resulted in roads with many problematic sections. Concerning the Baku – Georgian border road the need of periodic maintenance and rehabilitation is obvious, bearing in mind the great importance of this route. As to A23 and part of A33 the need of resurfacing and some rehabilitation is less urgent. The pavement is mostly in Acceptable condition, not to say Good on some sections. As long as the present situation prevails and during the initial resettlement in the conflict area it should be sufficient to maintain the present standard. As to Routine maintenance we are under the impression that at least the main roads are subject to some routine maintenance. On the other hand we have also noticed that Bridge maintenance is very much neglected, which is not in line with the objective to preserve the asset value of roads and road installations. According to records there are 1867 bridges to total length of 39246 metres, of which 70 – 80 % are in Poor condition. Most of the bridges do not meet the axle load requirements. The annual budget for bridge repairs is proposed to 2 MUSD.
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That will cater for repairs of some 20 bridges per year, which means that the repair period will be some 90 years and that is far beyond the expected lifespan
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of the bridges. Recommendations concerning Bridge Management is presented in section 6.7. The present maintenance standard of the roads and bridges in the conflict area is to a great extent unknown to the Road Authorities and we were not allowed to go close to the area. However, one can expect that no regular maintenance has been carried out during the dispute period, some 20 years. That means, judged from experience, that the most of the road network is likely to be in Bad condition. The road network in the occupied area comprises some 4000 kms of which some 50% are paved roads.
5.3.4 Maintenance Management Systems During our meetings with the Road Authorities in Baku, nobody has referred to any Maintenance Management System being implemented and in operation. For the purpose of establishment of the Ten-Year Plan HDM analyses has been referred to. HDM has been used for analyses of three different Routine Maintenance strategies and for Maintenance of gravel roads. However the report earlier referred to, the Maintenance Module includes a study of the needs of training and a proposed Technical Assistance Program. That program is proposing implementation of most parts of necessary Maintenance Management sub system except for a Bridge Management System, including training of personnel. Furthermore the program also deals with business-related issues and law regulations to prepare the production units to compete in a market economic context. Reliable and transparent accounting procedures will be necessary to monitor the future independent units.
5.3.5 Plant and equipment for maintenance, rehabilitation and reconstruction During a visit to a Construction and maintenance unit we got the impression that most of the equipment is near the end of the technical lifespan. However, some good pieces of equipment were in operation at the gravel pit and crusher plant that we visited. The Road Authority is aware of the need of new equipment. Renewal of plant and equipment is included in the Ten year Maintenance Plan to an annual amount of 3 MUSD.
5.3.6 Materials for maintenance, rehabilitation and reconstruction of roads and bridges, specifications and testing. Requirements on materials are in accordance with Russian specifications. Crushed material for base course and ballast for asphalt concrete is produced locally. The crusher plant, which we visited, included one jaw crusher and one cone crusher and a power screen. The natural gravel material was excavated from beneath the ground water level. The produced aggregates were of various quality, high portion of flaky aggregates, high portion of soft rock materials and uncrushed aggregates.
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The Scientific Research Center has laboratory, equipment and skilled staff for testing of all kinds of materials. Testing of bitumen and asphalt concrete are most common.
5.3.7 Resources for design, planning, tendering and supervision of rehabilitation, reconstruction and periodic maintenance. The Road administration presently employs the Scientific Research Center (SRC) in most of their projects. The road administration seems to have necessary resources for the overall administration and management, but have to rely upon the engineering resources of SRC concerning design, tendering and supervision. SRC has enough resources, equipment and engineering skill to cope with the present and a slightly increased demand of services. The department for design has a computer program for road design. However, it was operated on single personal computers and seems to require considerable amounts of field data input. FWD, Bump integrator and HDM-3 are used for calculations and analyses for establishment of rehabilitation and maintenance programs. As to the staffing of SRC we got the impression that the knowledge and experience to a major extent rest with a few key persons. The laboratory has necessary equipment and staff. At present SRC staff was employed for design and planning of rehabilitation projects on the Baku – Georgian border road. When these rehabilitation works commence SRC is supposed to be responsible for the supervision. According to the present schedule three major projects will be ongoing during the period of 2000 – 2002. To cope with that workload it will be necessary to increase the capacity of SRC by employment of addition engineering staff. Rehabilitation of roads in the conflict area will also require resources for survey and design. We don’t have information about the content in a possible bank of designed projects waiting financing and performance. To facilitate an even workload on the design resources identification and finance of the design of future important projects should be much desired.
5.3.8 The contractor industry. The Contractor Industry consists of state owned companies, which cover all areas of the country. The intention is that these companies should be privatized in the future. The equipment is to the major part old, worn and in need of repairs or replacement. Some new equipment is planned to be purchased annually. The management and technical skills of the contractors and their senior staff are difficult to predict. Due to limited funds they have neither been fully employed nor faced any real competition on an open market. There is a risk that the present underemployment will result in decreased efficiency, bad workmanship
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and lack of experienced personnel. The first one of three major rehabilitation projects has been on international tendering and was awarded to a Turkish Contractor. It is important that the domestic contractors can be engaged as sub- contractors to the main contractor to achieve employment effects and training. To ensure that, it might be necessary to stipulate employment of domestic resources in the tender documents. One can predict that the present Armenian contractor industry has enough capacity to perform an increased annual rehabilitation and maintenance program at least on the Republican and Local roads, and in addition to that enhanced maintenance and part of rehabilitation and reconstruction of roads in resettlement areas. The main problem might be to meet increased quality demands.
6 Rehabilitation and improvement program
6.1 Road inspection and condition survey. Due to the long road distances in Azerbaijan and the limited time available we have not been able to carry out any detailed road inspections or condition surveys. However, during travel on some 900 kms of the main roads we have got an overview of parts of the most important road network.
6.1.1 Summary of information from Azerbaijan Agency for Rehabilitation and Reconstruction of Areas (ARRA). ARRA provided information about the requirements of rehabilitation and reconstruction of roads in the conflict area at a meeting in Baku. These requirements were based on the expected situation after the Great Peace Agreement is signed. A total of 1065 kms of main roads and 3435 kms of local are expected to in need of rehabilitation: These roads also include 110 bridges with a total length of 3.2 kms and 2 tunnels together 4.5 kms. Demining is supposed to be carried out by military forces prior to the rehabilitation works. For the purpose of resettlement the most important road to be rehabilitated is road A45 Khanlar – Kelbejer. This link also includes construction of a tunnel in Murovdag Mountain. For safety reason we were not allowed to go close to the conflict area, which should have been of interest to verify the actual road condition. A summary of the roads travelled and the findings is presented in the following: Road Link Road no Kms Lanes Findings Alignment Pavement Traffic installations Baku – Alat M3 80 4 Good Poor/ Bad Poor Alat – Kuradamir- M4 120 2 Good Poor/ Bad Poor Kuradamir- Georgian M4 M1 320 2 Good/ Poor Poor Border Acceptabl e
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Alat – Bilasuvar - M3 110 2 Good Poor/ Poor Acceptable Bilasuvar- Bahmali A23 A33 100 2 Good Acceptable Poor Bahmali – Saatli- A33 A24 150 2 Acceptabl Poor/ Poor Quazi- Memmed e Acceptable A more comprehensive report on the findings encountered during the travels is given in Appendix 5
6.2 Rehabilitation and reconstruction program As mentioned before the proposed resurfacing and rehabilitation program is behind schedule. The up-dated rehabilitation program now presented by the Road Authorities is very much in line with the previous program but the proposed actions are more comprehensive. First priority is given to the Baku – Georgian border roads. Funds for the rehabilitation are supposed to be borrowed from international investment organizations. Three major projects are presently under way namely: 1. Part of M3 Baku – Alat 44 kms 4-lane road to an estimated cost of 36.5 MUSD including the costs of design and supervision, financed by Kuwait Fund. The project has been on international tendering and the contract is awarded to a Turkish construction company. 22 companies were invited for prequalification, of which 11 were short listed 2. . Design has been carried out by SRC. The work will commence during this year. The construction period is 2 years and the contractor is responsible for maintenance during a third year. 3. Part of M4 Alat – Qazimemmed – Junction M4/ A11 some 80 kms of rehabilitation of the existing 2-lane road, to an estimated cost of 32 MUSD. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) will finance the project. Tendering is planned to commence in the beginning of 2001 and the construction works later that year. 4. The remaining part of M4 to Kurdemiris 46 kms 2-lane road is presently under preparation for rehabilitation. This project will also be financed by Kuwait Fund. The rehabilitation works might commence in late 2001.
6.3 Rehabilitation and reconstruction program in the conflict area. The Azerbaijan Road network in the occupied area has the composition by administrative classes and surface types shown in the table below Road category Km Asphalt Soft Gravel Earth road concrete asphalt Republican roads 1,065 837 184 44 Local roads 2,947 21 590 2,308 28 Total 4,012 858 774 2,352 28
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Source: Azeravtoyol According to information from ”ARRA”, Azerbaijan Agency for Rehabilitation
Occupied area
Rehabilitation prop. by ARRA North - South Highway in Karabakh
and Reconstruction of Areas the need for rod restoration and maintenance is as summarised below. A total of 1065 kms of main roads and 3435 kms of local are expected to in need of rehabilitation: These roads also include 110 bridges with a total length of 3.2 kms and 2 tunnels together 4.5 kms. Demining is supposed to be carried out by military forces prior to the rehabilitation works.
Figure 6 Rehabilitation programme for Azerbaijan (Source: Map from TRACECA web site) For the purpose of resettlement the most important road to be rehabilitated is road A45 Khanlar – Kelbejer. This link also includes construction of a tunnel in Murovdag Mountain. Roads listed by region are as follows: Kelbejer Region. 1. A 45 Khanlar – Kelbejer including construction of the tunnel 2. Istisu – Alagel road, new gravel wearing course 3. Nadirhanli – Demirchidash 4. A 45 Kelbejer – Lachin Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic.
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1. A 74 Nuvedi – Minjivan , completion of the construction of this link to facilitate future direct traffic from Zengilan region to Ordubad. Gedebey Region. 1. A61 A62 Gedebey – Gasimagali including surfacing Gazakh region. 1. A 68 Gazah – Barhudali – (Armenian border) 2. A 69 Alpoud – Yuhari Eskipara Terter Region. 1. A 48 Terter – Serseng – Korpu Agdam Region. 1. A 49 Agdam – Shusa – Lachin 2. A 50 Agdam – Agdere – Terter Fuzuli – Lachin route. 1. A35, A33, A46 Fuzuli – Jebrayil – Mahmudlu – Zengilan – Gubadli – Lachin Rehabilitation of the roads is proposed to be carried out in priority order by groups of regions as follows: 1st Priority: Gazakh, Fusuli, Agdam, Terter, Kelbejer regions. 2nd Priority: Jebrayil, Zengilan, Nakhichevan – Gubadli – Gedebey regions. 3rd Priority: Nagorno, Karabakh, Lachin regions. In addition to the main roads local roads and streets in reconstructed towns have to be rehabilitated. Assuming the road lengths presented are correct, 1065 kms of main roads and 3435 kms of local roads, respectively, some rough cost estimates might be made. With unit costs of 100,000 USD per km for main roads including resurfacing and 50,000 USD per km for local roads, respectively, the total cost of this rehabilitation program could be some 180 MUSD. In addition it can be assumed that some major repairs of bridges and other structures will be needed. Thus, the total cost can be roughly estimated at some 200 MUSD, construction of the new tunnel not included. The rehabilitation works should be divided into 2 phases, firstly necessary urgent repairs to open connections for early resettlement. Secondly more comprehensive rehabilitation works including repaving and major repairs, which have to be scheduled for a longer work period. To avoid duplication of works the first phase should not comprise more than what is actually needed to open the links, and most of the money should be spent on properly planned projects. A rough assessment might be some 50 Million in the first phase and the remainder in the second phase.
6.4 Coordination of rehabilitation of the Occupied Zone The rehabilitation of roads in the occupied zone is one task in a wider programme for rehabilitation of the population and rebuilding housing, infrastructure, social and health care facilities etc. All tasks in this wider programme has to be coordinated in order achieve an acceptable degree of
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efficiency for the funds allocated. Although it has not been possible to find any summarising evaluation of the activities for rebuilding after the big earthquake in Gyumri and Spitak area in Armenia in 1989, it seem there was and to some extent still is a number of separate aid actions from a number of aid and charity organisation without any effective coordination and overall management. The rehabilitation is still not finished and time and money seems to have been lost due to the deficiencies in monitoring. The development in that area coincided with the break down of the Soviet Union, which could explain some but not all of the confusion. Some of the important activities to avoid a similar chaos are: 1. Organising. A planning, monitoring and auditing body for the entire rehabilitation and resettling project should be set up as soon as possible. The ARRA, Azerbaijan Agency for Rehabilitation of Areas, seems to be that type of body. It possibly should reviewed to find if it needs supplement from international aid and charity organisation or other external support to maximise the efficiency. 2. Demining. Before any repatriation or any activities on the ground can take place, the areas have to be demined and declared safe. Demining should take place according to a general programme for the rehabilitation with a set priority order of areas and facilities. Roads in the prioritised areas should be demined first to allow reconstruction traffic as soon as possible. Demining could possibly take 6-12 months to complete. 3. Road inspection and planning. Roads should be inspected in the priority order set by the organising body. Programmes for required actions like rehabilitation, enhanced maintenance, routine maintenance, should be made. Maintenance to open up the roads should normally be given priority; construction would have to wait. Environment aspects should be seriously considered and included in the planning. 4. Work documents. For each road, group of roads or group of activities to remedy the roads, proper tender documents should be produced, based on necessary surveying and testing. Each portion of work should in principle be let to tender to allow contractors to compete and to optimise cost and quality of works. It is anticipated that the capacity of existing local consultants is not sufficient. External consultants have to be employed to reinforce the local companies. The contractor's organisation of works should be scrutinised in order to maximise the employment effect. In this situation there is a shortage of money, but a great surplus of labour. If a labour based approach can be used, the returning people will be able to feed themselves to a greater extent and money will circulate in the local community and improve the general economy. 5. Work supervision. The supervision of works should be let to independent consultants, possibly from abroad to ensure the quality of works and a proper payment for works procedure. Reporting should be done to the overall monitoring body. 6. Opening of roads. As soon as possible, the roads should be opened to construction traffic and to returning inhabitants. There is a problem to control the streams of returning refugees. Another problem is control of SWEROAD 29(64) 24 August, 2000 DRAFT FINAL REPORT The World Bank ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN POST CONFLICT TRANSPORT STUDY
overloaded vehicles. It is outside the scope of this project, but these two complications might add to the difficulties to open the roads and maintain them in good condition.
6.5 Improvement of roads outside the Conflict Zone Road improvement and maintenance on roads at border crossings, serving the purpose of supporting trade should be organised as any normal road project. The procedure is · feasibility and road location study · design and tender documents · tender procedure · award of contract · supervision In the case of financing by any foreign institution, rules and procedures applicable to that institution should be used.
6.6 Program components
6.6.1 Costs Rough Estimates on Future Urgent Repairs, Rehabilitation and Maintenance in occupied areas Paved Republican Roads (A-roads) 1021 kms Urgent repairs 50 000 USD/ km = 51.050.000 USD Rehabilitation 100 000 USD/ km = 102.100.000 USD Annual Maintenance 1000 USD/ km = 1.021.000 USD/ year Paved Local Roads 621 kms Urgent repairs 40 000 USD/ km = 24.840.000 USD Rehabilitation 80 000 USD/ km = 49.680.000 USD Annual Maintenance 800 USD/ km = 496.800 USD/ year Gravel and Earth Roads 2380 kms Urgent Repairs 7000 USD/ km = 16.660.000 USD Rehabilitation 15000 USD/ km = 35.700.000 USD Annual Maintenance 500 USD/km = 1.190.000 USD/ year Cost estimates in summary: Urgent Repairs to facilitate resettlement = some 95 MUSD Rehabilitation during 2 – 5 years after = some 185 MUSD resettlement
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Annual Maintenance after resettlement = some 2.7 MUSD/ year In addition to the roads in the occupied area, the main road project, which is depending on the condition of peace, is the one connecting Nakhichevan with the rest of Azerbaijan. There is the main road along the Iran border passing through southern Armenia, where several kilometres of new road has to be constructed. The cost for these missing, about 20 kms; are estimated at 5 MUSD. There is also the shortcut via Goris in Armenia, which has to be studied and considered in a second phase of the rehabilitation programme.
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6.6.2 Employment effects The employment effect of the rehabilitation programme is depending on the approach in the choice of technology. A high tech approach is highly productive, but costs foreign currency and creates a minimum of job opportunities. The opposite, labour based approach will take longer time, but will create jobs and enhance the economy of the local community. In most cases it is not a choice between labour based or high tech but it is much more to find a suitable mixture between them. Both techniques have their advantages and disadvantages. By combining them it is possible to increase the advantages. In urban areas it is much easier to receive a good supply of mechanical assistance, fuel and lubricants, spare parts and operators than in rural areas. At the same time it might be easier to obtain natural material and cheap labour force in the rural areas. The strategy should be to minimise the use of imported resources. In urban areas it can be advisable to use more of high technology but also to make use of an increasing unemployed labour force. In the rural areas a maximum use of labour should be encouraged. The returning refugees could be a suitable recruitment base for a labour based approach to restoration and maintenance of roads in the former conflict area. Projects suitable for labour based works should be identified at the planning stage and designed implemented accordingly. Tender documents should stipulate employment of local labour to a sufficient degree. It is easier to make more efficient use of labour in road maintenance than in road construction. The main prerequisite in this discussion is to avoid too much biased opinions.
6.6.3 Environmental aspects Environmental aspects should be integrated in the land use planning process for rehabilitation of roads as well as other infrastructure. The techniques for EIA, Environmental Impact should be applied. In the rehabilitation activities there is a need for material for road construction and maintenance and for houses and other construction. The use of gravel pits and other new sources of natural material should be restricted. Material from abandoned buildings and industries should be used wherever possible. Contaminated land, waste and garbage deposits, abandoned vehicles and other scrap should be taken care of. The design of new roads should consider the risks for landslides and erosion, damage to the ground water through tunnelling and other similar activities. In maintenance proper drainage should be preserved. Special care should be exercised in the location of asphalt plants for road purposes. Road traffic produces air pollution and noise; the better the road the more noise and pollution. But the main effect is positive; better flow of traffic and less fuel consumption and wear and tear on the vehicles. Traffic accidents are another serious adverse effect of road traffic. Countermeasures should be included in
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the rehabilitation programme. Road furniture like road signs, markings and guard rails are important components in a road rehabilitation programme.
6.7 Institutional development needs and recommended actions. There is a need for further development of Azeravtoyol both in management and technical aspects. It is proposed that the ongoing restructuring should be supported by efficient management systems to facilitate maintenance planning and monitoring, contract management, establishment of tender procedures, evaluation of bids, supervision of ongoing maintenance and rehabilitation project. Quality Assurance System and Bridge Management System are other necessary systems. The poor condition of the bridges, together with overloading requires regular bridge inspections and also an efficient enforcement of load regulations. The TRACECA PROJECT 19, Road Maintenance, Module C, Reorganisation of the Roads Department in Azerbaijan includes in chapter 7 a proposal for Technical Assistance to the Azeravtoyol. An extract is included as Appendix 6. That proposal contains all essential part of such management systems that we believe are needed, except for a Bridge Management System. The estimated costs of the program are some 1.8 MUSD, which should be much beneficial by savings in terms of effectiveness and efficiency if the program is properly performed.
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Appendices
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