RER New Stations Initial Business Case HIGHWAY 7-CONCORD HIGHWAY 7-CONCORD, YORK UNIVERSITY CLUSTER SCREENING Barrie Corridor

July 2016

Draft Draft v1.2 Metrolinx Client ref: 150400

RER New Stations Initial Business Case HIGHWAY 7-CONCORD Highway 7-Concord, York University Cluster Screening

Draft

Prepared by: Prepared for: Urban Strategies Inc. Metrolinx 197 Spadina Avenue, Suite 600 97 Front Street West Toronto, ON Canada M5T 2C8 Toronto, ON M5J 1E6

RER New Stations Initial Business Case June 2016

Note to the reader: The Initial Business Case (IBC) represents a primary input into the evaluation and recommendation of New Stations. Final recommendation of new station site selection considers, in addition to the four cases of the IBC, network fit, and other strategic considerations including priorities of the various levels of government. Network fit addresses system-wide issues and impact on the overall performance of the rail corridor. IBC results do not represent the final recommendations of the GO RER New Stations Evaluation process. IBC results inform the process outlined in the GO RER New Stations Summary and Ranking Report, which is to be posted in the near future. For more information visit: http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regionalplanning/newstations/ The final list of recommended stations is included in the June 28, 2016 GO Regional Express Rail Update report to Metrolinx Board of Directors.

97 Front Street West 97, rue Front Ouest Toronto, Ontario M5J 1E6 Toronto (Ontario) M5J 1E6

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

Executive Summary

This Initial Business Case (IBC) examines a cluster of two station locations (one potential, one existing) along the GO Barrie corridor: York University (existing) and Highway 7-Concord (potential). An initial cluster screening was used to determine which station would be carried forward for a more detailed IBC assessment. The cluster screening concludes that the existing York University station is not supported by municipal land-use policy, and currently underperforms given its poor visibility, low-density industrial surroundings, lack of connections to other transit, and very limited potential for facility expansion. By comparison, Highway 7-Concord would be located in an area planned for significant intensification, aligning strongly with regional and local policy and forming part of a planned future Concord GO Mobility Hub. Highway 7-Concord’s key differentiating strengths include its ability to serve a planned high-density mixed-use catchment area, direct municipal and regional policy support for a new station at the site, and its potential to connect directly to other planned transportation networks at a key inter-modal transfer point. Highway 7-Concord’s much stronger strategic and deliverability/operational performance warrants that it be carried forward for more detailed IBC evaluation.

A new station at Highway 7-Concord would be located in the City of Vaughan in York Region, immediately south of Highway 7 at a site designated for a future GO station in the York Regional Official Plan. The station would be built on mostly vacant land and would be designed to avoid negative impacts on adjacent natural features (a woodlot and a branch of the West Don River). The station’s conceptual design integrates with a larger multi-modal transit hub in order to provide direct connections to planned vivaNext and 407 Transitway BRT services.

Key findings of this IBC for Highway 7-Concord include:

 Strategic Case: The station strongly aligns with current provincial, local, transportation, and land-use policy. It would improve access to a future mobility hub that is planned to accommodate high residential and employment densities, and it would connect to planned rapid-transit investments along Highway 7 (vivaNext BRT) and Highway 407 (407 Transitway BRT), thereby significantly improving transit service in a lower-income area of York Region. However, the station would result in a net loss of approximately 2,900 daily riders on the Barrie GO line as passengers are deterred by the travel time delays associated with stopping at the new station.

 Financial Case: The construction and operation of a new station at Highway 7-Concord may result in a negative net present value (NPV) of –$333.7 million over a 60-year time horizon. This NPV combines high capital expenditures and recurring station and train operating costs, combined estimated at $159.7 million, with a projected loss in fare revenue of $174 million resulting from lost ridership.

 Economic Case: The new station may result in a loss of riders to the GO network, significant travel time delays, and a net transportation mode shift toward personal automobiles (with accompanying environmental, safety, and broader societal costs). The result is total transportation user and environmental costs amounting to a net loss of $1,396 million over the station’s 60-year evaluation period.

 Deliverability and Operations Case: While the station’s construction will involve a low degree of complexity, private property acquisitions will be necessary and possible impacts to environmental features may need to be mitigated. The station’s relatively unconstrained context offers good potential for facility expansion and express train operation.

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

The assessment of Highway 7-Concord’s potential concludes that while the station performs well in the Deliverability & Operations Case, its Strategic Case performance is marginal, and its Financial and Economic Case performances are poor. While benefiting from strong policy alignment, interconnectivity with other planned higher- order transit, and ease of construction, Highway 7-Concord would result in a negative net present value and significant broader societal costs arising from increased automobile use. A table summarizing key metrics from each of the four cases follows. A legend is contained in Appendix D.

Table ES-1: Results of Initial Business Case Analysis for Highway 7-Concord

Criterion Summary

Policy Alignment Supportive

Development Potential and Intensification Neutral Real Estate Market Demand Neutral Natural Environment Neutral Operational System Supportive Connectivity and Ridership Drivers Not Supportive

StrategicCase Station Access Supportive Social Inclusivity and Accessibility Supportive Incremental GO Ridership (Millions of Trips) –103.4

Fare Revenue (A) –$174 Total Costs (B) $154.6 Capital Costs $132.7 Operating Costs (C) $21.9 Net Present Value (A-B) –$328.6

Financial Case Revenue to Cost Ratio (A/B) all-loss Operating Cost Recovery Ratio (A/C) all-loss Travel Time Savings (Millions of Person-Hours) –79.4 Auto Distances Saved (Millions of VKTs) –2,731 Benefits –$1,253

Costs $124.1 Net Present Value –$1,377 Benefit-Cost Ratio all-loss Transportation User Impacts –$1,246 Travel Time Savings –$544

Economic Case Vehicle Operating Cost Savings –$487.8 Decongestion on Road Network –$162.3 Safety Impacts –$51.9 Environmental Impacts –$6.5

Constructability Supportive Stakeholder Impacts Neutral Room for Growth Supportive Approvals/Permits Required Supportive

Operating Impacts Supportive Deliverability &

OperationsCase Other Key Risks and Impacts Neutral (Impacts over a 60-year period. Millions of 2015 $ Present Value, unless otherwise noted)

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

Table of Contents

Executive Summary page 1. Introduction ...... 1 1.1 Background ...... 1 1.2 Report Scope and Purpose ...... 1 1.3 Site Options and Scenarios Analyzed ...... 2 2. Cluster Screening ...... 5 2.1 Methodology ...... 5 2.2 Station Option A: York University ...... 5 2.2.1 Station Location ...... 5 2.2.2 Current Land Uses in Area ...... 6 2.2.3 Surrounding Transportation Infrastructure ...... 6 2.2.4 Strategic ...... 9 2.2.5 Financial ...... 11 2.2.6 Economic ...... 11 2.2.7 Deliverability and Operations ...... 12 2.3 Station Option B: Highway 7-Concord ...... 12 2.3.1 Station Location ...... 12 2.3.2 Current Land Uses in Area ...... 12 2.3.3 Surrounding Transportation Infrastructure ...... 13 2.3.4 Strategic ...... 15 2.3.5 Financial ...... 19 2.3.6 Economic ...... 20 2.3.7 Deliverability and Operations ...... 21 2.4 Recommendation ...... 21 3. Station Context and Concept Plan ...... 23 3.1 Concept Plan Rationale ...... 23 4. Strategic Case ...... 26 4.1 Strategic Case Summary ...... 26 4.2 Approach ...... 26 4.3 Rationale for a New Station ...... 27 4.3.1 Problem Statement ...... 27 4.3.2 Drivers for Change ...... 27 4.3.3 Station Objectives ...... 28 4.3.4 Constraints and Interdependencies ...... 28 4.3.5 Stakeholders ...... 29 4.4 Policy, Land Use and Development ...... 29 4.4.1 Policy Alignment ...... 30 4.4.2 Development Potential and Intensification ...... 31 4.4.3 Real Estate Market Demand ...... 35 4.4.4 Natural Environment ...... 36

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

4.5 Network, Connectivity, and Accessibility ...... 36 4.5.1 Operational System ...... 37 4.5.2 Connectivity and Ridership Drivers ...... 37 4.5.3 Station Access ...... 41 4.5.4 Social Inclusivity and Accessibility ...... 41 4.6 Strategic Case Sensitivity Scenarios ...... 43 5. Financial Case ...... 44 5.1 Financial Case Summary...... 44 5.2 Approach ...... 44 5.3 Financial Criteria ...... 45 5.3.1 Capital Costs ...... 45 5.3.2 Station Operating and Maintenance Costs ...... 46 5.3.3 Incremental Train Operating Costs ...... 46 5.3.4 Incremental Fare Revenues ...... 47 5.3.5 Revenues from Other Sources ...... 47 5.3.6 Net Present Value ...... 48 5.3.7 Lifecycle Revenue to Cost Ratio ...... 48 5.3.8 Operating Cost Recovery Ratio ...... 48 5.4 Financial Case Sensitivity Scenarios ...... 48 6. Economic Case ...... 50 6.1 Economic Case Summary ...... 50 6.2 Approach ...... 50 6.3 Economic Criteria ...... 51 6.3.1 Project Costs ...... 51 6.3.1.1 Capital Costs ...... 51 6.3.1.2 Station Operating and Maintenance (O&M) Costs ...... 51 6.3.1.3 Incremental Train Operating Costs ...... 51 6.3.2 Transportation User Impacts ...... 51 6.3.2.1 Travel Time Savings ...... 52 6.3.2.2 Change in Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKTs) ...... 52 6.3.2.3 Vehicle Operating Cost Savings...... 53 6.3.2.4 Decongestion Impacts on Road Network ...... 53 6.3.2.5 Safety Impacts ...... 53 6.3.3 Environmental Impacts ...... 54 6.3.3.1 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Impacts ...... 54 6.3.4 Benefit Cost Analysis Results ...... 54 6.3.4.1 Net Present Value (NPV) ...... 54 6.3.4.2 Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) ...... 54 6.3.5 Economic Development Impacts ...... 54 6.3.5.1 Wider Economic Benefits ...... 54 6.3.5.2 Economic Impacts ...... 55 6.3.5.3 Income / Distributional Impacts ...... 55 6.3.5.4 Property and Land Value Changes ...... 55 6.4 Economic Case Sensitivity Scenarios ...... 56 7. Deliverability and Operations Case ...... 57 7.1 Deliverability and Operations Case Summary ...... 57 7.2 Approach ...... 57 7.3 Deliverability and Operations Criteria ...... 58

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

7.3.1 Constructability ...... 58 7.3.2 Stakeholder Impacts ...... 58 7.3.3 Room for Growth ...... 60 7.3.4 Approvals/Permits Required ...... 60 7.3.5 Operating Impacts ...... 61 7.3.6 Other Key Risks and Impacts ...... 61 7.4 Deliverability and Operations Case Sensitivity Scenarios ...... 61 8. Conclusions and Findings ...... 63 Appendix A: Financial and Economic Case Baseline Assumptions ...... 64 Appendix B: Travel Time Savings Analysis ...... 65 Appendix C: Land Value Uplift Analysis ...... 69 Appendix D: Criteria Ranges ...... 74

List of Figures

Figure 1-1: Cluster in wider GO Rail network context ...... 2 Figure 1-2: York University/Highway 7-Concord Cluster Context Map ...... 1 Figure 2-1: Site Context around Station Option A (York University) ...... 1 Figure 2-2: Site Context around Station Option B (Highway 7-Concord) ...... 1 Figure 3-1: Highway 7-Concord Station Concept Plan ...... 24 Figure 3-2: Highway 7-Concord Station Property Requirements ...... 25 Figure 4-1: Existing Land Use ...... 33 Figure 4-2: Current Development Applications and Potential Soft Sites ...... 34 Figure 4-3: Existing, Planned, and Suggested Transit Network ...... 39 Figure 4-4: Existing, Planned, and Suggested Active Transportation Infrastructure ...... 40

List of Tables

Table 4-1: Strategic Case Summary Results ...... 26 Table 5-1: Financial Case Summary Results (Millions of 2015 $, Present Value) ...... 44 Table 5-2: Capital and Operating Cost Estimates (Millions of 2015 $, Present Value, 60-Year Period) ...... 46 Table 5-3: Additional Ridership and Fare Revenue (60-Year Period) ...... 47 Table 5-4: Financial Case Sensitivity Scenarios ...... 48 Table 6-1: Benefit-Cost Analysis Summary Results (Millions of 2015 $, Present Value) ...... 50 Table 6-2: Travel Time Impacts (60-Year Period) ...... 52 Table 6-3: Changes in Auto Distances Traveled (60-Year Period) ...... 53 Table 6-4: Economic Case Sensitivity Scenarios ...... 56 Table 7-1: Deliverability and Operations Case Summary Results ...... 57

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

1. Introduction

1.1 Background

Recent provincial planning and policy initiatives call for significant operational changes in GO rail services in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA). The Regional Express Rail (RER) program will bring more train trips to every GO rail corridor, including increased weekday rush-hour and non-rush hour periods, evenings and weekends, and electric trains running every 15 minutes or better, all day and in both directions, within the most heavily travelled sections of the network. To address considerations emerging from the RER program, the City of Toronto’s SmartTrack plan and other transit initiatives, Metrolinx initiated an examination of potential new station locations across the seven existing GO rail corridors. New stations should improve access to and egress from the GO rail network and meet strategic, financial (affordability), economic, and operational and deliverability objectives without significantly compromising the regional service objectives of GO and its base of users.

An initial identification of over 120 potential station sites was narrowed to 56 through a high-level evaluation of transport connectivity, planning and land use and technical feasibility. The 56 potential locations were then evaluated against 38 criteria and nine key criteria, yielding 24 sites on corridors that are subject to major infrastructure investment as part of the RER programme, to be examined in more detail using an Initial Business Case (IBC) evaluation.

This IBC addresses the York University/Highway 7-Concord cluster, comprising two potential station locations along the Barrie GO corridor between Canarctic Drive in Toronto and Highway 7 in Vaughan. The cluster considers both the existing York University station in Toronto and a proposed new station near the intersection of Highway 7 and Baldwin Avenue in Vaughan (in York Region). Given the proximity of the sites within this cluster, a cluster screening (see Section 2) has been used to determine which option is the best-performing and should therefore be evaluated using a full IBC.

1.2 Report Scope and Purpose

The scope of this Initial Business Case Report is to develop a high-level justification of the effectiveness of a proposed new station in the York University/Highway 7-Concord cluster. The report provides a comparison of the performance of the two station location options being considered, using a four-case structure. The report then provides an initial overview of how the best-performing station will contribute toward meeting both Metrolinx’s and local objectives (the Strategic Case), the financial and economic performance of the station (the Financial and Economic Cases), and deliverability and operational considerations (the Deliverability and Operations Case). This IBC looks at how a single new station would perform when added to the existing GO network; combinations of potential new stations have not been reviewed at this stage.

The findings of this report will be compared against the findings of IBCs for other new stations to determine the relative performance of station options across the network. Outcomes of that comparison will support recommendations on which stations should be developed in the near term.

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

Figure 1-1: Cluster in wider GO Rail network context

Potential station Existing GO stations Planned GO stations

1.3 Site Options and Scenarios Analyzed

Two site options are being considered within the York University/Highway 7-Concord cluster (see Section 2 for detailed location descriptions). These locations have been the subject of previous station studies, including an initial 120+ site evaluation that selected sites based on considerations such as station spacing, key transit connections, and municipal and regional transportation priorities. Based on their performance in the 120+ site analysis, York University and Highway 7-Concord were then studied in more detail as part of Metrolinx’s 50+ station location analysis in summer 2015. Highway 7-Concord’s good performance in previous evaluations resulted in it being selected for further study; its proximity to the existing York University station necessitates a cluster screening (see Section 2) to determine which station will be selected for a full IBC evaluation.

The Scenario options considered in the study are described in the following table, with a rationale provided where options were not considered for the York University/Highway 7-Concord cluster. The implications of the Scenarios on each of the four cases are considered at the conclusion of the case sections in this report, as appropriate.

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

Scenario Options Description

 RER Network based on RER IBC Scenario 5.1 infrastructure and service levels  No new stations Base Case Scenario (Do Nothing)  York University station removed and replaced by Downsview Park  No fare integration (existing fare policies)  2031 ridership grown by line from 2013 population and employment  RER Network based on RER IBC Scenario 5.1 infrastructure and service levels  One new station with 2.0-minute schedule impact Scenario Option 1 (One New  All trains (including express) stop at the station Station)  No fare integration (existing fare policies)  2031 ridership grown by line from 2013 population and employment Scenario Option 2A (Service  Express trains do not stop at the station (station concept protects for a third track Concept Sensitivity) which would permit through-service of express trains) Scenario Option 2B (Track  Option not considered for this IBC – no potential changes to track infrastructure Infrastructure Sensitivity) proposed (potential future 3rd track included in station concept) Scenario Option 2C (Dwell Time  Option not considered for this IBC – dwell time assumed to be typical Sensitivity) Scenario Option 2D (Fare  Option not considered for this IBC – fare integration already exists between YRT Sensitivity) and GO services Scenario Option 2E (Horizon and  Development of nearby greenfield and industrial lands significantly exceeding Land Use Sensitivity) assumed growth averages for the corridor Scenario Option 2F (Construction  Provision of a larger-span rail structure over Highway 7 to accommodate a Viva of Highway 7 Structure to rapidway and median Viva BRT station. Accommodate Viva Rapidway)

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

Figure 1-2: York University/Highway 7-Concord Cluster Context Map

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

2. Cluster Screening

2.1 Methodology

Clusters of potential site options have been identified where the catchment area of individual sites of interest may overlap. In some cases, certain site options can be dropped early prior to detailed consideration in the IBC.

A high-level comparative analysis of sites has been conducted within this cluster. Certain criteria from the full IBC have been brought forward and considered as part of the cluster screening. These criteria have been selected due to their importance and the potential ability to provide findings that can differentiate between the performance of each site option. These criteria include:

 Strategic Case o Policy Alignment o Development Potential and Intensification o Real Estate Market Demand o Operational System o Connectivity and Ridership Drivers  Financial Case o Affordability/Capital Cost (order-of-magnitude) o Incremental Fare Revenues (Millions of 2015$, Present Value)  Economic Case o Transportation User and Environmental Impacts (Millions of 2015$, Present Value)  Deliverability and Operations Case o Constructability / Ease of Construction and Operation

2.2 Station Option A: York University 2.2.1 Station Location

The existing York University station is located on the Barrie GO line in the City of Toronto, near the intersection of Canarctic Drive and Petrolia Road. The station, which opened in 2002, is in a low-density suburban industrial area, and was built as a temporary facility in anticipation of future changes to the local transit network. Since the station opened, the Toronto-York Spadina Subway Extension was approved, is now under construction, and is expected to open by the end of 2017, with a new Downsview Park GO station fully integrated with a new TTC station that will provide a direct connection to York University.

The existing station platform approximately extends from the rear of 205 Limestone Crescent to the rear of 575 Canarctic Drive. The station suffers from poor visibility, being located at the rear of a line of industrial buildings and with access from the west from Canarctic Drive provided by a single narrow walkway between two buildings. No access is provided to the station from the east. With the exception of a few new industrial buildings, the area surrounding the station has not changed appreciably in the last 15 years.

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

York University station’s surroundings are primarily low-density industrial and employment uses. The station lies within two kilometres of York University. Other planned transit improvements, such as the Toronto-York Spadina Subway Extension, will provide much more direct service to York University than the existing GO station.

Currently, the nearest residential neighbourhoods are one kilometer north (in Vaughan) and 1.5 kilometers southwest. The station is located within the York University Heights Neighbourhood Improvement Area, but is approximately two kilometres – and difficult to access – from the NIA’s nearest residential areas. The existing station also underperforms by not providing pedestrian or vehicular access from east of the rail corridor and by not connecting with other higher-order transit.

On February 3–4, 2016, Toronto City Council adopted a motion requesting that Metrolinx not close the York University station, asking that instead access and design of the existing station be improved, or otherwise that the station be relocated north to Steeles Avenue West. In a memo to Metrolinx CEO Bruce McCuaig dated February 12, 2016, Toronto’s Chief Planner Jennifer Keesmaat also expressed interest in a new GO RER station on the Barrie line between Lawrence Avenue West and Highway 401, but neither this nor the existing York University station are supported by municipal land-use policy at this time.

2.2.2 Current Land Uses in Area

The site’s surroundings are characterized as follows:

 To the north: North to Steeles Avenue and beyond, the station is surrounded by one- and two-storey industrial buildings, offices, warehouses, and big-box retail. Further north, in the City of Vaughan/York Region, are Hydro and railway corridors and the Highway 407 Express Toll Route corridor. The area is characterized by large blocks and infrequent intersections.

 To the east: East to Dufferin Street, the station is surrounded by one- and two-storey industrial buildings, offices, and warehouses. The area is characterized by large blocks. Lands to the immediate east of the station are currently inaccessible from the existing station and platform.

 To the south: South to Finch Avenue and beyond, the station is surrounded by one- and two-storey industrial buildings, offices, warehouses, vacant land, and fuel storage tank farms. The area is characterized by large blocks.

 To the west: West to Keele Street, the station is surrounded by one- and two-storey industrial buildings, offices, and warehouses. The area is characterized by large blocks. The Keele Reservoir occupies approximatively 8.8 hectares along Keele Street and is surmounted by cricket pitches and other recreational space. West of Keele Street is York University, a distance of 1.75 kilometres from the station platform to the centre of campus. 2.2.3 Surrounding Transportation Infrastructure

The existing York University station is situated on the GO Newmarket Subdivision, south of Steeles Avenue West. The rail corridor consists of two tracks at the station site, with several spur tracks serving surrounding industrial sites. Steeles Avenue West crosses the corridor at a road underpass approximately 550 metres (m) north of the station site, north of which the Newmarket Subdivision overpasses the CN York Subdivision. Approximately 1.1 kilometres (km) south of York University station, a recreational trail and bus-only roadway cross the rail corridor at a level crossing.

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

In the station vicinity, Steeles Avenue West consists of six traffic lanes (three in each direction) and a single left-turn lane. Ample parking is provided on private properties in the area and along some local streets. Local streets in the area mainly serve industrial and employment lands and are curvilinear in form. Other than sidewalks, there is limited active transportation infrastructure in the area, and no trails or designated cycling lanes connect directly to the station.

Several limited-service peak-period TTC bus routes serve the area surrounding York University station, with the nearest stop being 450 m from the station on Petrolia Road. The nearest frequent-service routes stop more than 900 m from the station site, on Keele Street. Shuttle service is provided between the station and York University for students and staff.

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

Figure 2-1: Site Context around Station Option A (York University)

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

2.2.4 Strategic

York University station is located in a stable, low-density, suburban industrial area. The existing station offers very limited facilities and suffers from poor visibility and accessibility. No station access is provided from the east. While the City of Toronto has requested that the station remain operational (and be improved), the Toronto-York Spadina Subway Extension will provide much more direct and high-quality transit service to the area (and York University in particular) than the existing station.

Policy Alignment

Policy Hierarchy Specific Policy Overview and Conformity The existing station aligns with land use and transportation Provincial policies in the Provincial Policy Statement, improving Policy Statement access to major employment areas and supporting connectivity across the region. Provincial Land-Use and Regional The station supports strategies and goals outlined in The Big Transportation Policy Transportation Plan Move Regional Transportation Plan and within the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe [GPGGH] by Growth Plan for the enhancing transit access for workers in the area, and Greater Golden providing higher-order transit to an existing Employment Horseshoe Area. The lands around the station are designated in Toronto’s Official Plan as Employment Areas. The surrounding employment lands are generally characterized by stable, automobile-oriented, and lower-density industrial, warehousing, and business uses that are expected to continue operating in the area over the long term. The City of Toronto’s Employment Lands Review applies a further Core Employment designation to these lands, which generally restricts uses that could disrupt the industrial operations of these interior employment areas. Regional/Local Land-Use City of Toronto A station at this location supports access to existing and Transportation Policy Official Plan employment uses, although the lower-density character of the area limits the benefits the station can offer, compared to a location in higher-density, more mixed-use employment areas. The existing station is located approximately one kilometre east of York University’s Keele campus. Both Toronto’s Official Plan and the York University Secondary Plan call for improved transit service to the campus, to be provided via the Toronto-York Spadina Subway Extension and an interim busway connecting the University to Downsview TTC station. Local City-Building Not applicable Not applicable Initiatives

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

Development Potential and Intensification

With no existing residents and 8,308 daytime jobs within 800 m of the station site (41 people and jobs per hectare [P+J/ha]), the station’s surroundings are not considered supportive of higher-order transit service at the station site. There have been no significant active and proposed development projects within the last three years. However, there are more than 40 hectares (ha) of land within 800 m with the potential for redevelopment over time, which could add to the area’s density in the long term. The catchment area is primarily developed with industrial warehouse, distribution, and light manufacturing land uses, which have lower employment density levels. There are few high-density employment land uses (e.g., major office or employment-intensive manufacturing) in the area. Accordingly, the employment population and density within the catchment area are low.

While the primarily low-density industrial/employment nature of the catchment area theoretically offers potential for some employment intensification (e.g., adding “flex office/industrial” or more significant office uses), there is very limited market demand for either industrial or office uses within the catchment area. Conversion to or intensification for residential uses could likely not be achieved under the current municipal regulatory environment, nor would be appropriate for the location. Institutional (post-secondary) intensification will likely occur within the York University campus lands to the west. Accordingly, there is limited expectation of future development or intensification at this location.

Real Estate Market Demand

The York University station catchment area is located in a broader industrial area to the east of York University. Demand for industrial space across the City of Toronto is relatively weak, with industry preferring to locate in other markets that offer better regulatory flexibility/speed, logistical access, and lower taxes. Accordingly, the demand for industrial employment lands in nearby Vaughan is comparatively stronger. Office demand within the station catchment area and surrounding markets is also weak. Furthermore, the station location and broader catchment area do not generally offer the site selection attributes and retail trade area characteristics required for successful retail development. Given the preceding, the station is not well-situated relative to industrial, office, or retail demand.

The industrial nature of the station site and broader catchment area is also not conducive to residential development, and residential condominium demand in the area is weak. There is, however, some potential demand for student housing and residential rental apartment accommodation. However, this demand will likely be accommodated at better-located sites, such as within York University’s “Edge Precinct” lands to the west of the site.

The station and its broader catchment area are not well-situated relative to current and likely future office, industrial, retail, or residential demand. Employment and residential populations within the catchment area are low, and no significant change in these populations or densities is anticipated.

Operational System

The existing station is 20.7 km from Union Station, 6.65 km from Rutherford, and 3.40 km from the Downsview Park station under construction. The distance gap between Union Station and Rutherford is 27.35 km. The gap from Rutherford to Downsview Park will be 10.05 km. There are no other potential new stations nearby except for Highway 7-Concord, considered later in this cluster analysis.

The existing York University station does not facilitate easy access compared with Rutherford and the planned GO station at Downsview Park. Both of these stations facilitate direct transfers to local transit, and Rutherford also has Passenger Pick-Up and Drop-Off (PPUDO) and parking facilities, although parking demand is very high at that station.

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

It is estimated that York University’s catchment area overlaps somewhat with that of Rutherford, because 50% of those boarding at York University (12 passengers) originate within 5 km of Rutherford station. There is currently little direct duplication with existing parallel transit services, because alternate routes to downtown are less direct and requires a transfer between TTC bus and subway. However, after the planned completion of the Spadina Subway Extension, GO service between York University, Union Station, and other nearby destinations will be directly duplicated.

Connectivity and Ridership Drivers

Because the RER baseline service concept assumes the removal of York University station and its replacement with a new station at Downsview Park, ridership forecasts for York University are not available. This precludes the comparable quantification of boardings, alightings, and new transit trips for this existing station, however, the station has consistently shown the fewest boardings and alightings of all stations on the Barrie Corridor, and one of the lowest ridership stations across the GO network.

York University station does not connect to any other higher-order transit modes (existing or committed) in the vicinity. As such, the station does not make significant improvements to overall network service. The station currently relies on shuttle service to and from the York University campus.

The station site is within 800 metres of two major destinations including one Business Improvement Areas and one college. York University’s Keele campus is also within two kilometres of the station. There is a single platform on the west side of the corridor with no access between the station and the neighbourhood to the east.

2.2.5 Financial

Affordability / Capital Cost (order-of-magnitude)

Capital cost estimates for the existing York University station are not available in the context of this IBC analysis, precluding the comparable quantification of initial capital costs for this existing station. The existing station cannot currently accommodate two-way express rail service, and therefore cannot be directly compared to potential RER stations under consideration. To operate as an RER station, York University would require upgrades including additional platforms and passenger circulation elements (elevators, stairs, pedestrian tunnels, etc.). A second track is planed along this corridor, which would constrain the opportunity to add a platform and related facilities to provide access to the east. Any expansion to the station would require substantial property taking. The estimation of these costs would require the development of an RER station concept, the identification of property impacts, and other evaluation not undertaken as part of this preliminary cluster screening.

Incremental Fare Revenues

As above, ridership forecasts for York University are not available in the context of this IBC analysis, precluding the comparable quantification of additional fare revenues for this existing station. Existing ridership is low. 2.2.6 Economic

Transportation User and Environmental Impacts

As above, ridership forecasts for York University are not available in the context of this IBC analysis, precluding the comparable quantification of transportation user and environmental impacts for this existing station.

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

2.2.7 Deliverability and Operations

Constructability / Ease of Construction and Operations

As an existing station, constructability and ease of construction/operations were not evaluated for York University GO. In order to meet pending AODA requirements and standards of service, if the station is retained, significant investment in the station would be required, including significant property acquisition to accommodate infrastructure.

2.3 Station Option B: Highway 7-Concord 2.3.1 Station Location

The Highway 7-Concord station is located on the Barrie GO line in the City of Vaughan in York Region, near the intersection of Highway 7 and Baldwin Avenue. The proposed station platform would lie between Highway 407 and Highway 7. The site is located in a low-density residential, commercial, and industrial area on the Highway 7 corridor, along York Region Transit’s Viva purple route. The site is adjacent to a forested ravine containing a branch of the West Don River.

Highway 7-Concord is located in an area that, despite significant parcels of underutilized land nearby, has undergone little change in the last 15 years. The area is characterized by detached homes, industrial buildings, and vacant and forested land. Despite this stability, significant intensification is planned for the area.

The location for Highway 7-Concord was selected based on a “GO Barrie (Concord) Station Design Concept” prepared as part of a 407 Transitway Planning & Preliminary Design study by the Ministry of Transportation in 2010, and because it is designated as the site of a future GO station in the York Regional Official Plan. The location was refined in order to give consideration to, and facilitate connections with, committed rapid transit services in the area. The selected location also avoids impacts on existing rail bridges, and minimizes impacts on private residential properties. 2.3.2 Current Land Uses in Area

The site’s surroundings are characterized as follows:

 To the north: Northwest of the six-lane Highway 7 corridor, lands contain an industrial park consisting of one- and two-storey industrial buildings, offices, commercial uses, and warehouses. The area is characterized by large blocks and infrequent intersections. Northeast of the site is a large (approximately 25-acre) parcel of vacant land currently containing a telecommunications tower but planned for significant redevelopment.

 To the east: Lands to the east of the station site are mainly vacant, with the exception of a self-storage depot immediately east of the rail corridor (south of Highway 7), and a garden centre and recreational vehicle dealership further east. Southeast of the station are a woodlot, a branch of the West Don River and its ravine system, and the Bartley Smith Trail connecting to the Glen Shields neighbourhood to the south. Beyond the ravine are the Highway 407 Express Toll Route and a Hydro corridor.

 To the south: South of the site are the Highway 407 Express Toll Route and a Hydro corridor. Southeast beyond Highway 407 — and accessible by the Bartley Smith Trail — is the residential Glen Shields neighbourhood, consisting of detached houses in a suburban road layout. To the southwest, both north and

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

south of Highway 407, are industrial lands containing one- and two-storey buildings, offices, and warehouses.

 To the west: Immediately west of the station site is Concord West, a low-density residential neighbourhood of one- to three-storey detached houses. Adjacent to the rail corridor, Southview Park contains community recreation amenities such as tennis courts and a playground. More industrial areas lie further west beyond Keele Street. 2.3.3 Surrounding Transportation Infrastructure

A new Highway 7-Concord station would be situated on the GO Newmarket Subdivision, south of Highway 7 and north of Highway 407, a controlled-access toll highway. At the station site, the rail corridor consists of one track, with a second track planned for the west side of the corridor. Highway 7 crosses the corridor at a road underpass approximately 225 m north of the station site. East of the rail corridor, Highway 7 consists of six traffic lanes (three in each direction) and a single left-turn lane. The road reduces to four total lanes at the underpass. Highway 407 consists of ten lanes (five in each direction, separated by a median). The nearest access point to Highway 407 is at Keele Street, approximately 2 km from the station.

A curvilinear local street pattern serves surrounding employment, industrial, and low-density residential uses. Parking is provided on private properties in the area and along some local streets. There are no designated cycling lanes and limited sidewalks and trails in the area. There are no direct active transportation connections to the station site. Several TTC and York Region Transit [YRT] bus routes currently serve Keele Street, with stops 1.2 km west of the station. YRT bus route # 77 and the Viva Purple express bus route serve Highway 7 at 20-minute frequencies or better with existing stops 400 m and 1.2 km from the station, respectively.

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

Figure 2-2: Site Context around Station Option B (Highway 7-Concord)

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

2.3.4 Strategic

Highway 7-Concord is located in an area of significant planned future intensification, designated by the City of Vaughan as an area for residential and employment growth. The Concord/GO Centre Secondary Plan calls for a total of 4,000–8,000 residents and 8,000–10,000 jobs in the area immediately surrounding the station. The station would also form part of a planned intermodal mobility hub with connections to regional transit networks.

Policy Alignment

Policy Hierarchy Specific Policy Overview and Conformity A new station at this location would support transportation Provincial policies in the Provincial Policy Statement by improving Policy Statement access to the transportation network and supporting regional connectivity. The station’s location would align with strategies and goals outlined in The Big Move Regional Transportation Plan and Regional in the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe Transportation Plan [GPGGH] by improving transit service for surrounding residents

and employees. Growth Plan for the More critically, the station would be located between Greater Golden Highway 7 and Highway 407, therefore offering the potential to Provincial Land-Use Horseshoe connect to planned regional transit improvements along these and Transportation corridors, as identified in The Big Move. Policy The site is located within 400 m of a Greenbelt Plan- designated River Valley, a designation that supports neighbouring urban areas by preserving for recreational and cultural uses in the natural environment. In these areas, new infrastructure is permitted, provided that it supports the needs of Greenbelt Plan adjacent urban areas and/or serves growth objectives. The site is under the jurisdiction of the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, and the site is in proximity to one TRCA Regulated Area. As per Ontario Regulation 166/06, development of and interference with regulated wetlands, shorelines, and watercourses may be restricted. The station would be located in York Region and in the City of Vaughan, and would be subject to both the regional and municipal Official Plans. York Region The York Region Official Plan designates Highway 7 as a Regional/Local Land- Official Plan Regional Rapid Transit Corridor, and identifies a potential new Use and and GO station at the Highway 7-Concord station site. Transportation Policy Transportation The York Region Transportation Master Plan identifies Master Plan Highway 7 as a location for several transportation improvement projects, including new rapid transit service and transitways. A station at this location would align with the Region’s overall vision for transit infrastructure improvements. (table continued on next page)

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

Policy Hierarchy Specific Policy Overview and Conformity The City of Vaughan’s Official Plan recognizes the area immediately north of the station as a Local Centre and a designated intensification area. The Local Centre is planned to evolve as a mixed-use core for the local community, to be supported by efficient transit service. Specific land-use City of Vaughan designations around the station site include mid-rise mixed- Official Plan use, natural area, park, low-rise residential, high-rise mixed- and use, and employment commercial uses. Transportation The site is identified in Official Plan Schedule 10 and in Master Plan the Vaughan Transportation Master Plan as a location for a potential GO station. The TMP also identifies the site as a significant transit hub and future 407 Transitway station. A Regional/Local Land-Use station at this location would therefore support the planned and Transportation Policy convergence of transit services within this area. The Highway 7-Concord site is located at the western edge of the Concord GO Centre Secondary Plan area. The Secondary Plan establishes a vision for the site based on high-density mixed-use development around transit networks such as the Highway 7 vivaNext BRT system, the future 407 City of Vaughan Transitway BRT, and a future GO station at the site. Secondary Plans The Secondary Plan also identifies the area as a potential Mobility Hub. A new station at this location would help to strengthen this intensification area and support the creation of a mixed-use community surrounding a multi- modal transportation network. The site falls within the study area for the Concord West Urban Design Framework and Streetscape Plan. This document promotes commercial mixed use along the Local City-Building Other City of Vaughan Highway 7 Intensification Corridor in order to take advantage Initiatives planning studies of planned transit investments in the area. A new station at Highway 7-Concord offers the potential to further enhance access to commercial uses along the Highway 7 corridor.

Development Potential and Intensification

There are 3,978 residents and 8,890 daytime jobs located within 800 m of the station site (64 P+J/ha). The local population is projected to grow to 5,105 by 2026, and daytime employment to 10,356 (77 P+J/ha).1 Projections are not currently available for years beyond 2026. Population and employment densities identified in the Concord/GO Centre Secondary Plan would correspond to 90 P+J/ha, which would not meet the recommended density for express rail in the Metrolinx Mobility Hub Guidelines.

There is one significant proposed development within 800 m, comprising 3,953 residential units and 77,742 square metres (sq. m) of non-residential GFA. There are also more than 8 ha of land within 800 m with the potential for redevelopment over time, which would also add to the area’s density. Appropriate floor space index (FSI) precedents, including built and proposed developments, have been used to determine potential gross floor area (GFA) yields for these soft sites over time:

1 Pitney Bowes/Magnify Maps

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

Type of use Total area of soft sites within 800 m Office/Employment 28,344 sq. m Retail/Commercial 6,797 sq. m Residential 152,062 sq. m

If all of the building space within these development applications and all of the development potential within these soft sites were to be realized, the station’s catchment area would be expected to increase by:

 4,100 jobs  10,900 people

Given historic demand trends, the catchment area is expected to accommodate approximately 50–60% of the above-mentioned potential employment growth, and 10–20% of potential population growth, by 2031.

Real Estate Market Demand

The station is not well-situated relative to current office employment market demand. There is no major office space in the catchment area, with virtually no new office completions over the past five years. The broader Vaughan office market has 177,000 sq. m of office inventory, approximately 5,900 sq. m per annum has been completed over the past five years. Absorption in this submarket has averaged at a 4,645 sq. m per annum over the past five years, but fully 9,300 sq. m in 2015. It is important to note that the majority of new supply and demand has occurred along Highway 400 and in the Vaughan Town Centre. Demand is likely to continue to be focused at these established office concentrations, with limited demand flowing to the station’s catchment area. Average Class A office market rents within the Vaughan market (at $185.67 per sq. m) are sufficient to warrant new office construction.

The station is well-situated relative to current industrial market demand. While the catchment area currently contains some industrial inventory (totaling 176,000 sq. m), no new industrial space has been built within the catchment area during the past five years. However, the broader Vaughan industrial market is quite healthy, with fully 37,100 sq. m of new industrial space built and 214,000 sq. m of industrial space absorbed in 2015; industrial demand has averaged 55,700 sq. m per annum over the past five years. Moreover, the catchment area has access to and visibility from Highway 407, which is an important industrial site-selection attribute. Given the preceding, the site is well-situated relative to current industrial demand.

The station is not well-situated relative to current residential condominium demand. There are virtually no condominium units actively being marketed in the catchment area, nor have there been any sales for five years. The broader Vaughan East condominium market has enjoyed a modest demand of approximately 300 units per annum. However, the subject catchment area has an industrial character which is not overly conducive to residential development.

There are approximately 21,700 sq. m of theoretical office development potential and 65,000 sq. m of industrial development potential within properties subject to development applications and/or designated as “soft sites” (assuming that the employment density is allocated 25% to office and 75% to industrial uses, based upon current market trends).

Historic demand trends (over the past five years) have demonstrated virtually no demand for either office or industrial uses within the catchment area. However, office demand within the broader Vaughan market area has been heathier and Vaughan’s industrial demand has been very strong. It is important to note that Vaughan office demand has and continues to be focused along Highway 400 and in the Vaughan City Centre. Given all of the preceding, a modest proportion of office demand could flow to the station’s catchment area, amounting to 14,000 sq.

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

m by 2031. (Limited demand today has been extrapolated on a straight-line basis to 1,900 sq. m per annum by 2031, representing 25% of demand in Vaughan). Industrial demand within the catchment area is likely to be healthy, driven by a resurgence in the industrial economy and strong industrial site selection attributes (including Highway 407 access and visibility). Accordingly, all of the 65,000 sq. m of industrial development potential is expected to be absorbed by 2031.

There are approximately 22,100 sq. m of theoretical retail development potential within the catchment area. However, historic and current retail demand has been weak, with virtually no new shopping centre retail space being developed within the catchment area over the past five years. Given the preceding history, the likely future demand of for this retail development potential is likely limited. However, retail space typically has a larger trade area than the 800 m radius studied here, so some retail development is theoretically possible, particularly given the site’s accessibility from Highway 407 access and the visibility of key sites within the catchment area.

There are approximately 734,000 sq. m of theoretical residential development potential within the catchment area, primarily within identified “soft” sites. It is challenging to forecast the extent of new residential development that might occur, particularly if a new station were to be constructed. Residential demand over the next 15 years (between 2016 and 2031) is anticipated to form a small proportion of the above theoretical development potential. It is likely that the majority of residential demand will flow to the nearby Vaughan Town Centre, which has an established residential market and extensive retail, entertainment, and recreational amenities. It is anticipated that the station’s catchment area will achieve an approximately 10–20% share of Vaughan East’s overall residential demand.

Operational System

Highway 7-Concord would be located 2.45 km north of the existing York University station, 4.10 km south of Rutherford, and 5.40 km north of Downsview Park, currently under construction. There are no other potential stations in the vicinity, other than York University which has been evaluated earlier in this cluster screening. The total distance between Downsview Park and Rutherford would be 9.70 km.

The existing York University station lacks PPUDO, parking, and direct transit connections, while parking demand at Rutherford consistently exceeds capacity. A new station at Highway 7-Concord would therefore have potential to relieve station access constraints at existing stations.

Highway 7-Concord’s catchment area is expected to overlap by about 15% (224 riders) with that of Rutherford. This may help to relieve parking demand at Rutherford. If York University station remains in operation, overlap would also occur with that station. Following the completion of the Toronto-York Spadina Subway Extension, there would be duplication of local transit services because a direct route to Union Station and other downtown destinations would be possible via TTC stations at Highway 407/Jane, Pioneer Village (Steeles Avenue), and the Vaughan Metropolitan Centre, 3.5–4.0 km distant.

Connectivity and Ridership Drivers

Ridership forecasts indicate that a new station at Highway 7-Concord would attract an estimated 190 new passenger trips in the AM peak period in the 2031 scenario (540 new trips per day). The station would serve predominantly as an origin station (rather than a destination), with approximately 115 passengers alighting at the station in the AM peak period. Additionally, an estimated 1,190 existing GO passengers would be expected to enter the GO system at Highway 7-Concord instead of at their current access station (e.g., Rutherford or York University) during the AM peak period (3,390 passengers daily).

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

While the introduction of this station would have the potential to attract a number of new riders to the system, it would also result in additional delay to a significant number of existing riders destined beyond the proposed station. An estimated 5% increase in overall travel time would be experienced by upstream riders as a result of trains stopping at Highway 7-Concord. This delay is expected to deter some existing upstream riders, resulting in a loss of approximately 1,230 passengers in the AM peak period, or almost 3,510 riders per day, in the 2031 scenario.

When balanced against the estimated new ridership generated by the station, an expected net loss of approximately 1,040 AM peak period passengers (2,970 daily) is anticipated to result from the introduction of a station at Highway 7-Concord in 2031.

The station would provide connection to the planned Viva bus rapid transit (BRT) line on Highway 7. Proposed BRT stops are located approximately 500 m from the station site. Highway 7-Concord may also connect with a future planned 407 Transitway. The station therefore has the potential to improve network service by providing new connections between destinations on the Viva BRT, 407 Transitway, and Barrie GO lines.

The station is expected to have some impact on the operation of local transit agencies. It is proposed that existing YRT and planned Viva bus stops be relocated along Highway 7 to be closer to the Highway 7-Concord station site. To facilitate direct connections, it would be desirable that at least some YRT/Viva buses on Highway 7 be diverted into the new station’s bus loop. Further study is required to determine the impact of the station on local transit ridership.

The station site is within 800 metres of three major destinations (see Section 4.5.2). Active transportation connections to the station can be provided using an unpaved recreational trail that currently passes within 400 m of the station site. However, only 10% of the station’s users are estimated be candidates for accessing the station via active transportation, and as such, improvements to the trail are not expected to significantly increase ridership at Highway 7-Concord. While the trail could be upgraded, further study would be necessary to determine if it could meet AODA standards. Other active transportation infrastructure is lacking in the station area. On-road cycling facilities are planned for Highway 7 in the York Region Official Plan.

2.3.5 Financial

Affordability / Capital Cost (order-of-magnitude)

The order-of-magnitude station cost includes property acquisition, a 50% contingency allowance, and a 15% allowance for engineering, construction administration, and management.

This cost estimate assumes refurbishment costs for key project elements at varying intervals, including station amenities (platform, shelters, elevators, etc.), railway modifications, site and access provisions (roadworks, sidewalks, parking facilities, etc.) and structures.

The station would be constructed within the existing GO Barrie rail corridor, with some facilities extending to the east. No track realignment will be required to accommodate the station. It is assumed that any works associated with implementing a proposed third (express) track in the corridor would be budgeted separately.

Side passenger platforms will be constructed adjacent to the rail line, with elevators/stairs connecting to street-level access facilities such as parking, PPUOD, and transit connections.

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

Given the level of anticipated ridership, as well as suburban commuters’ preference for using automobiles to access transit stations (as evidenced by Rutherford, with its 70% automobile mode share for passenger access), the station concept includes a parking structure. When combined with available surface parking, approximately 50% of Highway 7-Concord’s 2031 daily ridership could park at the station. Ridership growth would have to be accommodated by passengers accessing the station using other means such as local transit, walking or cycling, carpool, or Kiss-and- Ride.

Other major cost items associated with the construction of Highway 7-Concord include:

 Property acquisition  A passenger services building  Eight elevators/stairs  Two new platform with five shelters each  Parking lot and site redevelopment  Pedestrian grade-separation

This cost estimate includes refurbishment costs for key project elements at varying intervals, including station amenities (platform, shelters, elevators, etc.), railway modifications, site and access provisions (roadworks, sidewalks, parking facilities, etc.) and structures.

Over the 60-year lifespan of the project, capital costs amount to an estimated total of approximately $154.6M ($2015, discounted).

Incremental Fare Revenues

Ridership forecasts for Highway 7-Concord station indicate that the estimated uptake of new riders at the station would not offset the loss of riders due to the additional trip time associated with stopping at the station. The net ridership loss would result in an overall net revenue loss of approximately $174M ($2015, discounted) over the 60- year life-cycle of the station. 2.3.6 Economic

Transportation User and Environmental Impacts

The proposed Highway 7-Concord station will result in increased net travel times for new and existing passengers on the GO Barrie line. The station is anticipated to be an origin for many new passengers. The resulting travel time savings for boarding passengers is estimated to be 43 minutes for those within walking distance of the station, and ten minutes for those from farther afield. While the volume of passengers alighting at the station is anticipated to be relatively small when compared to those boarding, those alighting at the station could also benefit from travel time savings of approximately 43 minutes per passenger. For the 2031 horizon year, the cumulative passenger travel- time savings associated with the station are estimated to be 27,500 minutes per day.

However, passengers on the Barrie line destined to stations beyond Highway 7-Concord would experience a notable delay as a result of the new station. It is anticipated that service to Highway 7-Concord would result in an additional 2.0 minutes of delay per passenger. For the 2031 horizon year used in this analysis, cumulative passenger delays associated with the new station are estimated to be 166,000 minutes per day.

Over the 60-year lifecycle of the station, the cumulative net total travel-time losses are estimated to be 79.4M hours. When a time value of $16.71/hour is applied, the net travel-time savings result in a total monetized transit user travel-time cost of $544.0M ($2015, discounted).

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

The introduction of a Highway 7-Concord station is anticipated to have a significant impact on personal automobile use. The station is expected to attract approximately 540 new passengers daily (as of 2031), and ridership forecasts assume that 20% of these riders will have diverted to GO rail service from an automobile. Further, it is estimated that passengers’ current automobile trips are, on average, approximately 38.7 km in length prior to transferring to GO service. However, it is also estimated that approximately 3,510 daily passengers would be lost (as of 2031) as a result of the delays associated with a new Highway 7-Concord station. Of these, ridership forecasts again assume that 20% would be diverted to automobiles, with an average trip length of 50.8 km per passenger. The resulting net increase in vehicle kilometres travelled (VKTs) is anticipated to be 2,371M vehicle-km over the 60-year lifecycle of the station.

Over the lifecycle of the station, the introduction of a Highway 7-Concord station would therefore result in a net increase of $487.8M in vehicle operating costs, a net increase of $162.3M in road congestion costs, a net increase of $51.9M in safety-related costs, and a net increase of $6.5M in GHG emission costs.

2.3.7 Deliverability and Operations

Constructability / Ease of Construction and Operations

Highway 7-Concord would be located in an active but relatively unconstrained segment of rail corridor. At this location, the rail corridor accommodates one active rail line, but is proposed to be widened by up to two additional tracks. At this location, platforms appear to be constructible without requiring any realignment of existing or proposed tracks. Side platforms can be constructed on fill adjacent to existing and proposed tracks. Existing track grade has been assumed to be sufficient for platform construction, requiring no rail corridor profile adjustment. Construction of pedestrian tunnels may require minor and temporary works within the rail right-of-way.

The proposed station will require the acquisition of property currently used by the existing storage facility to the east. Additional lands, currently occupied by low-density commercial uses, would have to be acquired in order to construct proposed site access routes, but could then be redeveloped following the construction of an access roadway.

Construction of a proposed parking structure would use conventional building techniques. Given the size of the site, no construction staging challenges are expected when building the parking structure.

It is assumed that any works associated with twinning or tripling the existing track would be borne by a separate project.

2.4 Recommendation

Even competing against an existing GO station at York University, Highway 7-Concord offers much better policy alignment and the potential to serve planned high-density, mixed-use clusters of employment and population, centred on an inter-modal “Concord GO” transit hub. Highway 7-Concord’s construction would be relatively straightforward and the station would offer significant expansion potential compared to the constrained site currently occupied by York University.

A station at Highway 7-Concord would improve transit access for lower-income residents in York Region, and has the potential to serve growing residential and employment populations over time. By contrast, York University is

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

located in a fully built, low-density industrial area with very limited potential for future development or growth, and with poor real estate market demand.

On a regional scale, the introduction of Highway 7-Concord could improve regional connectivity by directly connecting with committed rapid transit service along Highway 7 and Highway 407. In comparison York University does not currently connect to any other transit modes. Moreover, existing GO service at York University will be mostly duplicated with the completion of the Toronto-York Spadina Subway Extension.

For all of these reasons, it is recommended that Highway 7-Concord station be carried forward for more detailed evaluation in the remainder of this IBC. A table summarizing the results of this cluster screening can be found below. A colour-code legend is contained in Appendix D.

Cluster screening summary table:

York Highway 7-

University Concord

Policy Alignment Neutral Supportive

Development Potential and Intensification Not Supportive Neutral

Real Estate Market Demand Not Supportive Neutral

Operational System Neutral Supportive

Connectivity and Ridership Drivers not available Not Supportive Capital Cost (Millions of 2015 $, Present Value, order-of- $132.7M magnitude) not available Additional Fare Revenues (Millions of 2015 $, Present Value) not available –$174.0M

Economic Benefits (Millions of 2015 $, Present Value) not available –$1,253M

Constructability/Ease of Construction and Operations not applicable Supportive

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

3. Station Context and Concept Plan

3.1 Concept Plan Rationale

Figure 3-1 shows the proposed concept plan developed for a station at Highway 7-Concord. It includes two side platforms, six station buildings, two platform access points, a large (65-car) PPUDO facility, two parking facilities (a 170-car surface lot and a 1,300-car parking structure), and bicycle parking. The station’s conceptual design situates the GO station within a larger multi-modal transit hub that provides direct connections to planned vivaNext BRT service along Highway 7 as well as a planned BRT station along the 407 Transitway. The station’s design also preserves for a bus loop at the southern end of the transit hub.

The development of Highway 7-Concord would be relatively unconstrained to the east (given the availability of vacant land, existing natural features notwithstanding), while being constrained by existing single-detached residential properties to the west. In this regard, technical challenges for this station will resemble those of Maple and Eglinton GO stations, whose development included side platforms and minimal track work, as well as partial constraint by low-density residential properties and an arterial road. Contextually, Highway 7-Concord resembles the adjacent existing Rutherford station.

The station’s primary entrance is located toward the northern end of the platforms, providing easy access for riders using the station’s PPUDO and parking facilities. Access across the rail corridor is provided through a pedestrian tunnel. Over the long term, this entrance will also support access to/from redevelopment sites west of the rail corridor (south of Highway 7). A secondary entrance toward the southern end of the platforms provides a direct connection from the parking structure to both platforms (through a pedestrian tunnel), as well as access to Rockview Gardens (a local street) and the established residential neighbourhood to the west. Bicycle parking is provided at the primary entrance (east side of the rail corridor) and secondary entrance (west side). Property acquisitions will be required to provide station access from the west side of the rail corridor. All station entrances would be accessible.

Given the large volume of vehicular traffic anticipated to access the station on a daily basis, the larger transit hub site has been designed to provide access from a number of different locations and directions. Vehicular access points include a proposed signalized intersection on Highway 7 approximately 250 m east of the rail corridor, and a new in-and-out street approximately 90 m east of the rail corridor. The PPUDO facility has been positioned so that it can be easily accessed from the new in-and-out street and also via the proposed signalized intersection further east. While the proposed street and block pattern provide some redundancy in terms of access, it has been designed to minimize the station’s impacts on the existing woodlot.

The West Don River regulatory flood plain has resulted in most of the station’s facilities being located south of Highway 7. Lands north of the station and Highway 7 are currently proposed to accommodate a high-density mixed- use development (see Section 4.3.4). The station’s conceptual design provides access to both sides of Highway 7 with an elevated pedestrian walkway along the east side of the rail corridor. This would support direct access from the GO station’s northbound platform to curbside stops for a planned Highway 7 vivaNext route. (A single central vivaNext platform was also considered, but was not pursued given the poor accessibility of a central platform in this location; the proximity of the rail bridge precludes providing a safe signalized pedestrian crossing on Highway 7 adjacent to the rail corridor.)

Locating many of the station’s facilities toward the southern end of the mobility hub property also maximizes the potential for the station’s surface parking areas (including PPUDO) to redevelop over time. Eventual redevelopment will help connect the station to surrounding high-density development (planned and/or proposed).

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

Figure 3-1: Highway 7-Concord Station Concept Plan

NOTE: conceptual design to be used for IBC evaluation purposes only. It illustrates one potential alternative that may be feasible on this site. The preferred station layout should be determined in consultation with internal and external Metrolinx stakeholders including municipalities. Station location and layout is subject to further feasibility analysis, environmental assessment, and design development.

2 4

RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

Figure 3-2: Highway 7-Concord Station Property Requirements

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

4. Strategic Case

4.1 Strategic Case Summary

The Strategic Case for Highway 7-Concord concludes that a station at this location would align with regional and local land-use and transportation policies. A station at the site is identified in municipal and regional Official Plans and transportation plans, and would have the potential to connect with planned transitway investments along Highway 7 and Highway 407. The station could form part of a potential mobility hub within an area designated for intensification. Significant residential and employment growth are anticipated in the area over the medium and long term, although new development will need to be sensitive to natural heritage features surrounding the station area. A new station at Highway 7-Concord station would relieve station access constraints at neighbouring GO stations, support transit access to a future high-density and mixed-use cluster, and simultaneously improve transit service for surrounding low-income neighbourhoods. However, the introduction of a station at Highway 7-Concord, and the travel time delays it would cause, is predicted to result in the loss of approximately 3,000 daily riders on the Barrie GO line.

Table 4-1: Strategic Case Summary Results

Strategic Case Summary Highway 7-Concord Specifically supported by regional and local policy, generally by Policy Alignment provincial policy Moderately transit-supportive densities, with strong proposed Development Potential and Intensification development activity Real Estate Market Demand Low current demand, with moderate potential for future demand Within 800 m of Natural Heritage Network and a Greenbelt Plan- Natural Environment designated River Valley (Don River); is also a TRCA Regulated Area Operational System Within 4.1 km of nearest existing station; some duplication expected Connectivity and Ridership Drivers Good planned future connectivity, but 2,970 daily GO riders lost Supports access by walking, cycling, local transit, PPUDO, and Station Access park-and-ride Social Inclusivity and Accessibility Good potential to serve low-income/disadvantaged residents

A legend is contained in Appendix D.

4.2 Approach

The Strategic Case sets out the rationale for adding this station; it makes the case for change at a policy and long- term planning level. It sets out the problem statement defining the station rationale, explains the objectives that are to be achieved, and outlines constraints or interdependencies that must be considered with this station. The strategic policy context and the fit with wider public policy objectives are also explained. Other key criteria include relationship to market demand, social and environmental impacts, network connectivity, and ridership.

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

One of the most significant determinants of a station’s overall performance at the IBC stage are the forecasted boardings and alightings at the station relative to the through (or “upstream”) passengers who would be delayed by the new station. Several metrics including time savings, new ridership, new revenue, impact on vehicle kilometres travelled (VKTs), and impact on emissions are dependent on these forecasts. The ridership forecasts in this IBC are based on the RER Scenario 5 service concept, including relevant vehicle technology.2

To address the sensitivity of this assessment to ridership forecasts, several scenarios are considered (where appropriate/applicable). These scenarios include the consideration of whether a modified service concept for the station or potential land use/development near the station may significantly affect the station’s performance. The sensitivity of the station’s performance to broader changes to the RER Scenario 5 service concept have not been considered in the scope of this IBC.

4.3 Rationale for a New Station 4.3.1 Problem Statement

The purpose of this IBC is to assess in detail the Highway 7-Concord GO RER station location in Vaughan. A potential new station should improve access to and egress from the GO rail network and meet strategic, affordability, economic, and deliverability objectives without significantly compromising the regional service objectives of GO and its base of users on opening day. A new station at Highway 7-Concord should also improve transit access to a planned high-density mixed-use cluster near the site, and form an integral part of a new regional inter-modal mobility hub. Potential challenges in the planning of a new station at Highway 7-Concord include the potential for impacts on nearby environmental features, and the need for some private property acquisitions.

A station that adequately addresses these statements may be recommended for more detailed design, and further business case analysis. 4.3.2 Drivers for Change

Several external and internal regional drivers for change exist for potential new GO stations across the network.

 Recent investments in new transit infrastructure, including GO RER, new light rail, bus rapid transit lines, and subway infrastructure are increasing the capacity of the transit network and providing new rapid transit options for more trips within all parts of the GTHA.  Congestion on roads and highways throughout the GTHA, which is expected to worsen as the region continues to grow and as opportunities for road and highway expansion are increasingly limited, particularly within core areas of the region.  Demographic changes and shifts within the region, including a younger generation that has a higher tendency to live in core areas and use a car less frequently, aging “baby boomers” who may not be able to drive as much as they used to, and a low-income population that is moving further from the core into car- dependent areas due to high housing prices and rents in the core.  The increased peak and off-peak capacity provided by the GO RER program should be matched with increased ridership so that the program’s benefits can be realized. This increase in ridership will require an expansion of the travel market for the GO network from peak-period 905-to-Union travel to include more off- peak, contra-peak, and non-Union travel, including increased travel within Toronto and between the 905 and suburban and downtown “shoulder” areas of Toronto.

2 Ridership forecasts are derived from the GO New Stations Benefits Spreadsheet (v3.3, May 2016).

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

 More locally, Highway 7-Concord is in an area of significant planned future intensification. While currently containing low-density residential and industrial uses, the station area is designated by the City of Vaughan as an area for residential and employment growth; the Concord/GO Centre Secondary Plan calls for a total of 4,000–8,000 residents and 8,000–10,000 jobs in the area immediately surrounding the proposed Highway 7-Concord site. A station at this location would also form part of a planned intermodal mobility hub with connections to regional transit networks including the 407 Transitway and Highway 7 vivaNext BRT systems.  A new station at Highway 7-Concord has also been studied previously by Delcan and IBI Group.3

4.3.3 Station Objectives

The implementation of a new station should meet the following objectives:

 Improve service and add riders  Minimize impact on trip time for existing customers  Maintain appropriate station spacing for the vehicle technology  Support existing regional and municipal plans  Support inter-regional transit connectivity  Promote development in targeted growth areas  Create opportunities for passenger pick-up and drop-off for customers arriving by car  Provide direct regional rapid transit access to major employment areas 4.3.4 Constraints and Interdependencies

The strategic, economic, financial, and operational performance of this new station is affected by a number of constraints and interdependencies with other initiatives, including:

 GO Electrification: Infrastructure to permit the operation of electrified trains on the GO network, necessary to permit planned 15-minute service on many GO corridors4. Efficiencies in capital costs and construction impacts may be achieved by coordinating the planning, design, and construction of a new station with that of any necessary electrification infrastructure in the station area.  Effects of other new stations on the ridership potential at this station: The additional travel time caused by the additional stops may decrease ridership between this station and other existing stations, while the additional potential origin-destination pairs served by this station and other new stations may increase station ridership.  Toronto-York Spadina Subway Extension: The extension of the Toronto Transit Commission’s subway system northwest to the Vaughan Metropolitan Centre in York Region, including a new station at York University and a new intermodal GO/TTC subway transit hub at Downsview Park.  Highway 7 vivaNext BRT: Bus rapidways along Highway 7, now under construction, that will connect with existing York Region Transit (YRT)/Viva routes as well as TTC subway other transit networks. Implementation of BRT infrastructure in the area may require widening Highway 7 at the underpass immediately north of the station site.  407 Transitway BRT: A long-term plan, outlined in the Regional Transportation Plan, for rapid transit through York Region and beyond using dedicated bus rights-of-way on Highway 407, including a planned station adjacent to the GO Newmarket Subdivision to facilitate transfers with GO rail service

3 407 Transitway Planning & Preliminary Design, Delcan and IBI Group, 2010 4 Details on GO Electrification are available in the GO Electrification Study Final Report (December 2010).

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

 Adjacent development projects: Based on land availability and existing uses, the station site is located in an area with significant potential for change. With the area being identified in City of Vaughan planning policy as a Local Centre and a Potential Mobility Hub, a new station at this location could significantly influence the future development of the surrounding area. There is one development application within 800 m of the station site: o 1890 Highway 7 & Block 16 of the former Ontario Realty Corporation lands (east of rail corridor; north of Highway 7): “Rose Garden City,” a significant high-rise, mixed-use development to contain offices and retail (77,642 sq. m non-residential GFA), and 3,953 residential units.  Adjacent soft sites: The development of adjacent “soft sites” may influence the design and planning of the station in the medium or long term, including: o 1929 Highway 7: A large (approximately 3-acre) property immediately west of the rail corridor, containing several light industrial buildings and one 19th-century heritage house o 1889 Highway 7: An existing self-storage building and vehicle/trailer parking lot immediately east of the rail corridor, with the potential to support access to a station at this site o 1853, 1841, and 1801 Highway 7: Low-density commercial uses east of the station site, with potential for long-term intensification or use as part of a transit hub o Woodlot/vacant land (south of the property at 1889 Highway 7): Partially designated in Vaughan’s Official Plan as Natural Heritage Network, the vacant portion of these lands may also represent an opportunity for densification adjacent to the rail corridor. o Within a wider 800 m radius of the station site, there are a total of 8.89 ha of soft sites (see Figure 4- 2). 4.3.5 Stakeholders

There are a range of stakeholders that might or will be affected by the development of a new station at Highway 7- Concord. These include:

 Metrolinx Operations and Capital Projects Group  Municipalities: City of Toronto; City of Vaughan; Regional Municipality of York  Elected officials: Toronto City Councillor (Ward 8); Vaughan City Councillors (Ward 4 and 5); Vaughan Regional Councillors; Member of Provincial Parliament; Member of Parliament  Transit agencies: York Region Transit, Toronto Transit Commission  Owners, developers, and residents of adjacent properties  Business Improvement Areas  Residents’, Ratepayers’, and Neighbourhood Associations: e.g. Concord West Ratepayers’ Association, Glen Shields Ratepayers’ Association; Black Creek Community Collaborative  Institutions: York University  Travelers (transit, road, and active transportation users)

4.4 Policy, Land Use and Development

The following criteria examine how the new station conforms to provincial, regional, and local planning policy for land use and transportation. This section also discusses the station’s fit or potential impact to the surrounding neighbourhoods and potential future development.

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

4.4.1 Policy Alignment

Policy Hierarchy Specific Policy Overview and Conformity A new station at this location would support transportation Provincial policies in the Provincial Policy Statement by improving Policy Statement access to the transportation network and supporting regional connectivity. The station’s location would align with strategies and goals outlined in The Big Move Regional Transportation Regional Plan and in the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Transportation Plan Horseshoe [GPGGH] by improving transit service for

surrounding residents and employees. Growth Plan for the More critically, the station would be located between Greater Golden Highway 7 and Highway 407, therefore offering the potential Horseshoe Provincial Land-Use and to connect to planned regional transit improvements along Transportation Policy these corridors, as identified in The Big Move. The site is located within 400 m of a Greenbelt Plan- designated River Valley, a designation that supports neighbouring urban areas by preserving for recreational and cultural uses in the natural environment. In these areas, new infrastructure is permitted, provided that it supports the needs Greenbelt Plan of adjacent urban areas and/or serves growth objectives. The site is under the jurisdiction of the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, and the site is in proximity to one TRCA Regulated Area. As per Ontario Regulation 166/06, development of and interference with regulated wetlands, shorelines, and watercourses may be restricted. The station would be located in York Region and in the City of Vaughan, and would be subject to both the regional and municipal Official Plans. The York Region Official Plan designates Highway 7 York Region as a Regional Rapid Transit Corridor, and identifies a Official Plan potential new GO station at the Highway 7-Concord station Regional/Local Land-Use and site. and Transportation Policy Transportation The York Region Transportation Master Plan Master Plan identifies Highway 7 as a location for several transportation improvement projects, including new rapid transit service and transitways. A station at this location would align with the Region’s overall vision for transit infrastructure improvements. (table continued on next page)

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

Policy Hierarchy Specific Policy Overview and Conformity The City of Vaughan’s Official Plan recognizes the area immediately north of the station as a Local Centre and a designated intensification area. The Local Centre is planned to evolve as a mixed-use core for the local community, to be supported by efficient transit service. Specific land-use City of Vaughan designations around the station site include mid-rise mixed- Official Plan use, natural area, park, low-rise residential, high-rise mixed- and use, and employment commercial uses. Transportation The site is identified in Official Plan Schedule 10 and in Master Plan the Vaughan Transportation Master Plan as a location for a potential GO station. The TMP also identifies the site as a significant transit hub and future 407 Transitway station. A Regional/Local Land-Use station at this location would therefore support the planned and Transportation Policy convergence of transit services within this area. The Highway 7-Concord site is located at the western edge of the Concord GO Centre Secondary Plan area. The Secondary Plan establishes a vision for the site based on high-density mixed-use development around transit networks such as the Highway 7 vivaNext BRT system, the future 407 City of Vaughan Transitway BRT, and a future GO station at the site. Secondary Plans The Secondary Plan also identifies the area as a potential Mobility Hub. A new station at this location would help to strengthen this intensification area and support the creation of a mixed-use community surrounding a multi- modal transportation network. The site falls within the study area for the Concord West Urban Design Framework and Streetscape Plan. This document promotes commercial mixed use along the Local City-Building Other City of Vaughan Highway 7 Intensification Corridor in order to take advantage Initiatives planning studies of planned transit investments in the area. A new station at Highway 7-Concord offers the potential to further enhance access to commercial uses along the Highway 7 corridor.

4.4.2 Development Potential and Intensification

There are 3,978 residents and 8,890 daytime jobs located within 800 m of the station site. The local population is projected to grow to 5,105 by 2026, and daytime employment to 10,356.5 Projections are not available for years beyond 2026. These equate to current and projected population-and-job densities of 64 P+J/ha and 77 P+J/ha, respectively, are moderately transit-supportive, according to Metrolinx’s density guidelines for regional rail stations (50–200 P+J/ha).6 Population and employment densities identified in the Concord/GO Centre Secondary Plan would correspond to 90 P+J/ha.

5 Pitney Bowes/Magnify Maps 6 Transit-supportive density of an “Express Rail” mobility hub, Metrolinx Mobility Hub Guidelines for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, Metrolinx, September 2011

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

There is one significant proposed development within 800 m, comprising 3,953 residential units and 77,742 sq. m of non-residential GFA. There are also more than 8 ha of land within 800 m with the potential for redevelopment over time, which would also add to the area’s density. Figure 4-2 shows identified soft sites within 800 m of the station site. Each soft site has been categorized by its land use designation in Vaughan’s Official Plan, resulting in the following table of lands with potential to redevelop over time:

Land use designation Total area of soft sites within 800 m Regeneration Areas 0.00 ha Employment Areas 4.23 ha Mixed Use Areas 4.67 ha Residential Areas 0.00 ha Parks 0.00 ha

Appropriate floor space index (FSI) precedents, including built and proposed developments, have been used to determine potential gross floor area (GFA) yields for these soft sites over time:

Type of use Total area of soft sites within 800 m Office/Employment 28,344 sq. m Retail/Commercial 6,797 sq. m Residential 152,062 sq. m

If all of the building space within these development applications and all of the development potential within these soft sites were to be realized, the station’s catchment area would be expected to increase by:

 4,100 jobs  10,900 people

Given historic demand trends, the catchment area is expected to accommodate approximately 50–60% of the above-mentioned potential employment growth, and 10–20% of potential population growth, by 2031.

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

Figure 4-1: Existing Land Use

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

Figure 4-2: Current Development Applications and Potential Soft Sites

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

4.4.3 Real Estate Market Demand

Relationship to Current Market Demand

The station is not well-situated relative to current office employment market demand. There is no major office space in the catchment area, with virtually no new office completions over the past five years. The broader Vaughan office market has 177,000 sq. m of office inventory, approximately 5,900 sq. m per annum has been completed over the past five years. Absorption in this submarket has averaged at a 4,645 sq. m per annum over the past five years, but fully 9,300 sq. m in 2015. It is important to note that the majority of new supply and demand has occurred along Highway 400 and in the Vaughan Town Centre. Demand is likely to continue to be focused at these established office concentrations, with limited demand flowing to the station’s catchment area. Average Class A office market rents within the Vaughan market (at $185.67 per sq. m) are sufficient to warrant new office construction.

The station is well-situated relative to current industrial market demand. While the catchment area currently contains some industrial inventory (totaling 176,000 sq. m), no new industrial space has been built within the catchment area during the past five years. However, the broader Vaughan industrial market is quite healthy, with fully 37,100 sq. m of new industrial space built and 214,000 sq. m of industrial space absorbed in 2015; industrial demand has averaged 24,000 sq. m per annum over the past five years. Moreover, the catchment area enjoys excellent access to and visibility from Highway 407, which is an important industrial site-selection attribute. Given the preceding, the site is well-situated relative to current industrial demand.

The station is not well-situated relative to current residential condominium demand. There are virtually no condominium units actively being marketed in the catchment area, nor have there been any sales for five years. The broader Vaughan East condominium market has enjoyed a modest demand of approximately 300 units per annum. However, the subject catchment area has an industrial character which is not overly conducive to residential development.

Relationship to Future Market Demand

There are approximately 21,700 sq. m of theoretical office development potential and 65,000 sq. m of industrial development potential within properties subject to development applications and/or designated as “soft sites” (assuming that the employment density is allocated 25% to office and 75% to industrial uses, based upon current market trends).

Historic demand trends (over the past five years) have demonstrated virtually no demand for either office or industrial uses within the catchment area. However, office demand within the broader Vaughan market area has been somewhat heathier; Vaughan’s industrial demand has been very strong. It is important to note that Vaughan office demand has and continues to be focused along Highway 400 and in the Vaughan City Centre. Given all of the preceding, a modest proportion of office demand is expected to flow to the station’s catchment area, amounting to 14,000 sq. m by 2031. (Limited demand today has been extrapolated on a straight-line basis to 1,900 sq. m per annum by 2031, representing 25% of demand in Vaughan). Industrial demand within the catchment area is likely to be healthy, driven by a resurgence in the industrial economy and strong industrial site selection attributes (including Highway 407 access and visibility). Accordingly, all of the 65,000 sq. m of industrial development potential is expected to be absorbed by 2031.

There are approximately 22,100 sq. m of theoretical retail development potential within the catchment area. However, historic and current retail demand has been very weak, with virtually no new shopping centre retail space being developed within the catchment area over the past five years. Given the preceding history, the likely future

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

demand of for this retail development potential may be limited. However, retail space typically has a larger trade area than the 800 m radius studied here, so some retail development is theoretically possible, particularly given the site’s accessibility from Highway 407 access and the visibility of key sites within the catchment area.

There are approximately 734,000 sq. m of theoretical residential development potential within the catchment area, primarily within identified “soft” sites. It is challenging to forecast the extent of new residential development that might occur, particularly if a new station were to be constructed. Residential demand over the next 15 years (between 2016 and 2031) is anticipated to form a small proportion of the above theoretical development potential. It is likely that the vast majority of residential demand will flow to the nearby Vaughan Town Centre, which has an established residential market and extensive retail, entertainment, and recreational amenities. It is anticipated that the station’s catchment area will achieve an approximately 10–20% share of Vaughan East’s overall residential demand. 4.4.4 Natural Environment

The station site is within 800 m of Vaughan’s Natural Heritage Network (Core Features) and a Greenbelt Plan- designated River Valley, namely the Don River, which is also a Toronto and Region Conservation Authority (TRCA) Regulated Area and part of the Don River Regulatory Flood Plain. As per Ontario Regulation 166/06, development of and interference with regulated wetlands, shorelines, watercourses, and areas subject to flooding may be restricted. The site is not near any Areas of Natural and Scientific Interest.

Rail traffic along the GO Barrie corridor is and will continue to be a source of noise and vibration impacts for adjacent properties. With the increase in train traffic associated with the proposed RER program, it is anticipated that noise and vibration impacts will also increase. In addition, train deceleration and acceleration associated with new service to Highway 7-Concord would be expected to result in further noise and air-quality impacts to adjacent sensitive receptors, including residential developments west of the rail corridor. Potential noise impacts associated with the new station will require further evaluation through an Environmental Assessment study in accordance with MOE and GO Transit noise regulations, as well as the York Region Noise Policy (2006) and Standard Operating Procedure (2010).

The station’s location in an existing rail corridor poses contamination-related concerns typical of rail facilities. Construction of station elements (such as the platform and pedestrian tunnels) would likely require excavation and removal of potentially contaminated materials including contaminated rail ballast, bedding and fill material associated with the use of slag, coal cinders, and ash. Excess soil will require waste classification in accordance with applicable regulatory requirements. Regulatory requirements in place at the time of construction, as well as excess materials management guidelines and specifications, would have to be used when developing an excess materials management plan in accordance with MOE standards, Ontario Regulation 153/04, and Ontario Provincial Standard Specification 180 (General Specification for the Management of Excess Materials).

A Phase I and/or Phase II Environmental Site Assessment will likely have to be undertaken for the proposed Highway 7-Concord station (in accordance with Ontario Regulation 153/04, as amended) for affected properties. This study would support both property acquisition and station construction activities. These assessments would likely be undertaken as part of a required Environmental Assessment study in the planning phase of the project.

4.5 Network, Connectivity, and Accessibility

The following criteria examine how the new station will connect and interact with existing and committed transit and active transportation networks and surrounding land uses. They also describe the general ridership potential for the new station.

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

4.5.1 Operational System

Highway 7-Concord would be located 2.45 km north of the existing York University station, 4.10 km south of Rutherford, and 5.40 km north of Downsview Park, currently under construction. There are no other potential stations in the vicinity, other than York University station which has been evaluated earlier in this cluster screening. The total distance between Downsview Park and Rutherford would be 9.70 km.

The existing York University station lacks PPUDO, parking, and direct transit connections, while parking demand at Rutherford consistently exceeds capacity. A new station at Highway 7-Concord would therefore have significant potential to relieve station access constraints at existing stations.

Highway 7-Concord’s catchment area is expected to overlap by about 15% (224 riders) with that of Rutherford. This may help to relieve parking demand at Rutherford. If York University station remains in operation, overlap would also occur with that station. Following the completion of the Toronto-York Spadina Subway Extension, there would be moderate duplication of local transit services because a direct route to Union Station and other downtown destinations would be possible via TTC stations at Highway 407/Jane, Pioneer Village (Steeles Avenue), and the Vaughan Metropolitan Centre, 3.5–4.0 km distant. 4.5.2 Connectivity and Ridership Drivers

Ridership forecasts for this station assume the removal of York University station and its replacement by a new GO station at Downsview Park based on the assumptions of the Regional Express Rail Business Case and service concept. Forecasts indicate that a new station at Highway 7-Concord would attract an estimated 190 new passenger trips in the AM peak period in the 2031 scenario (540 new trips per day). The station would serve predominantly as an origin station (rather than a destination), with approximately 115 passengers alighting at the station in the AM peak period. Additionally, an estimated 1,190 existing GO passengers would be expected to enter the GO system at Highway 7-Concord instead of at their current access station (e.g., Rutherford or York University) during the AM peak period (3,390 passengers daily).

While the introduction of this station would have the potential to attract a number of new riders to the system, it would also result in additional delay to a significant number of existing riders destined beyond the proposed station. An increase in overall travel time would be experienced by upstream riders as a result of trains stopping at Highway 7-Concord. Any delay may deter some existing upstream riders, in this case predicated to result in a loss of approximately 1,230 passengers in the AM peak period, or almost 3,510 riders per day, in the 2031 scenario.

When balanced against the estimated new ridership generated by the station, a potential net loss of approximately 1,040 AM peak period passengers (2,970 daily) could result from the introduction of a station at Highway 7-Concord in 2031.

The station would provide connection to the planned Viva bus rapid transit (BRT) line on Highway 7. Proposed BRT stops are located approximately 500 m from the station site. Highway 7-Concord may also connect with a future planned 407 Transitway. The station therefore has the potential to improve network service by providing new connections between destinations on the Viva BRT, 407 Transitway, and Barrie GO lines.

The station may impact the operation of local transit agencies. It is proposed that existing YRT and planned Viva bus stops be relocated along Highway 7 to be closer to the Highway 7-Concord station site. To facilitate direct connections, it would be desirable that at least some YRT/Viva buses on Highway 7 be diverted into the new station’s bus loop. Further study is required to determine the impact of the station on local transit ridership.

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

There are three local destinations within 800 m of the station site, although currently no destinations of city-wide or regional significance. A list of destinations follows:

Community/Park 1. Lower Bartley Smith Greenway (Park) 2. Marita Payne Park (Park) 3. Southview Park (Park)

Active transportation connections to the station can be provided using an unpaved recreational trail that currently passes within 400 m of the station site. However, only 10% of the station’s users are estimated be candidates for accessing the station via active transportation, and as such, improvements to the trail are not expected to significantly increase ridership at Highway 7-Concord. While the trail could be upgraded, further study would be necessary to determine if it could meet AODA standards. Other active transportation infrastructure is lacking in the station area. On-road cycling facilities are planned for Highway 7 in the York Region Official Plan.

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

Figure 4-3: Existing, Planned, and Suggested Transit Network

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

Figure 4-4: Existing, Planned, and Suggested Active Transportation Infrastructure

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

4.5.3 Station Access

The station concept supports access by PPUDO, park & ride, walking, cycling, and local transit. Direct connections are possible to YRT and Viva bus routes, assuming some buses are diverted into the station’s bus loop, as well as at Highway 7 within 500 m of the station. The station’s conceptual design facilitates these connections with proposed sidewalks, signalized crossings, and passenger shelters. Two bicycle parking shelters are proposed to accommodate access to the station by bicycle. The station is located approximately 200 m south of Highway 7, the nearest major street, and walk-up ridership could be facilitated by a proposed network of pathways and sidewalks. 4.5.4 Social Inclusivity and Accessibility

Disadvantaged Residents Served

The nearest Neighbourhood Improvement Area (in the City of Toronto) is York University Heights. Its distance (1.9 kilometres to the south, a 35-minute walk through an industrial area), along with existing barriers posed by highways and rail corridors, means that Highway 7-Concord would not directly serve this area.

According to York Region’s publication Low Income Trends in York Region — 2000 to 2011, the station site is also located in an area where 15–20% of York Region’s low-income population currently resides. In the City of Vaughan, there are three census tracts within 800 m of the station area. Between 8% and 12% of the population of these census tracts fall below the low-income cut-off (after tax), as determined by Statistics Canada using the 2011 National Household Survey:

Census tract % residents Median household income below LIM-AT (2011) 0410.15 8% 0411.01 12% 0411.08 9% 800 m catchment area $71,3137 York Region $89,1008

Census tract 0410.15 is isolated from the station by Highway 407 and natural features, but Highway 7-Concord would have good potential to serve low-income and disadvantaged residents in census tracts 0411.01 and 0411.08 (both located north of Highway 407).

Accessibility Index

Metrolinx’ Accessibility Model was used to test the area before and after the potential station is placed on the network. There are two key metrics produced by this model. The first is the Access to Transit (ATT) metric, which is a rating of the level of transit service available. This index is based on walking distance to transit stops as well as the waiting time at the said transit stop. The second metric produced is the Accessibility Index (AI), which represents the level of transit service in the area, with higher AIs representing more frequent, nearby transit service. The model assesses the walking road network, the local transit network of routes and stops with headways, and a defined maximum walk distances to each type of transit (i.e., how far a customer is willing to walk to catch a local bus/streetcar route versus an LRT or subway).

7 Metrolinx memo (April 29, 2016): “DRAFT - New Stations and Access to Transit” 8 York Region, “9: 2011 National Household Survey — Issues and Demographic Highlights”, http://www.york.ca/wps/wcm/connect/ yorkpublic/83607032-c21b-46f3-835e-351438753e28/jan+9+national.pdf?MOD=AJPERES

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

The station’s surrounding area has a very low Accessibility Index (AI) compared to other locations under consideration in other GO RER IBCs. If a new station at Highway 7-Concord were to be built, the AI would be anticipated to increase from 9 to 13. While the resulting AI would still be low, this change would represent a significant 49% increase in the station area’s AI.

In terms of accessibility to landmarks and destinations, there are three parks within 800 m of the station site (see Section 4.5.2 for details).

Aesthetic Impacts

The aesthetic of the station area would change significantly if Highway 7-Concord were to be built. The proposed station would form part of a planned mobility hub and intermodal transfer point between GO Trains, vivaNext BRT services, and 407 Transitway BRT services, and the station’s own development would likely correspond with significant intensification and redevelopment of surrounding vacant land.

As shown in the station’s conceptual design (Section 3.4), the station includes extensive infrastructure including a 1,300-vehicle, 5-storey parking structure, 65-car PPUDO lot, surface parking for 170 cars, and several ancillary station buildings and facilities at Highway 7, Gemma Court, and Rockview Gardens. While the parking structure may have negative aesthetic impacts, all parking facilities would be set back from Highway 7, reducing these effects. West of the rail corridor, the aesthetic impacts of new station facilities and pedestrian access points are expected to be limited. East of the corridor, station facilities and long-term developments are proposed to replace existing industrial and commercial uses and parking lots. New streets, sidewalks, and station plazas will also be provided. With new streets, a new pedestrian bridge across Highway 7, and two tunnels beneath the rail corridor, the station would reduce the number of barriers in the surrounding area.

Safety Impacts

In the station’s conceptual design, the platforms will be accessed by surface routes and tunnels, the latter potentially resulting in safety concerns, particularly if the tunnels are not well-lit or adequately monitored. The platform itself will be set back relative to nearby streets and somewhat concealed behind the proposed parking structure, limiting the amount of natural surveillance possible.

Community/Cultural Impacts

There are three designated heritage properties within 800 m of the station site, although no properties within 200 m. The station would be unlikely to affect any heritage property directly. There are no community facilities within 800 m, although users of nearby parks (e.g., Southview Park) may experience increased vibration and noise from train acceleration and deceleration.

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

4.6 Strategic Case Sensitivity Scenarios

Implications for the Strategic Case under the various sensitivity scenarios are discussed in the following table:

Scenario Options Description

 Option 1 for the station assumes that express trains on the Barrie line stop at the station  If the service concept was modified such that express trains bypass the station, negative impacts to riders using the station (inability to use express trains) would Scenario Option 2A (Service likely be outweighed by savings to upstream riders not using the station; as a Concept Sensitivity) result, the positive impacts of the station on travel time savings, VKTs, emissions, and new revenue may be improved  Further ridership modelling is required to quantify the impacts of the two potential service concepts Scenario Option 2B (Track  Option not considered for this IBC – no potential changes to track infrastructure Infrastructure Sensitivity) proposed (potential future 3rd track included in station concept) Scenario Option 2C (Dwell Time  Option not considered for this IBC – dwell time assumed to be typical Sensitivity) Scenario Option 2D (Fare  Option not considered for this IBC – fare integration already exists between YRT Sensitivity) and GO services  Significant development nearby to the station could result in substantial increases Scenario Option 2E (Horizon and to ridership at the station and improve the net impact of the new station on travel Land Use Sensitivity) time savings, VKTs, emissions, and new revenue

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

5. Financial Case

5.1 Financial Case Summary

The Financial Case for Highway 7-Concord reveals that the construction and operation of the new station would result in a negative net present value (NPV) of –$333.7 million over a 60-year time horizon. The NPV combines capital expenditures and recurring station and train operating costs, combined estimated at $159.7 million, as well as loss in fare revenue of –$174.0 million resulting from lost ridership (as a result of travel time delays). In other words, the new station results in a revenue loss against total project costs and total operating costs. Table 5-1 summarizes the key results of the Financial Case.

Table 5-1: Financial Case Summary Results (Millions of 2015 $, Present Value)

Highway 7- Financial Case Summary Results (Millions of 2015$, PV) Concord Incremental GO Ridership (Millions of Trips) –103.4 Fare Revenue (A) –$174.0 Total Costs (B) $154.6 Capital Costs $132.7 Operating Costs (C) $21.9 Net Present Value (A-B) –$328.6 Revenue to Cost Ratio (A/B) all-loss Operating Cost Recovery Ratio (A/C) all-loss

A legend is contained in Appendix D.

5.2 Approach

The Financial Case compares the incremental capital expenditure, operating and maintenance costs and fare revenues for the new station relative to the base case scenario (i.e. without the new station). The assessment is based on 2031 ridership estimates grown by corridor from 2013 levels and assumes that demand will grow at the same rate as the demand in the corridor.

The dollar figures for the 60-year evaluation period from the potential construction start date (2022) through to the end of 2081 are in nominal dollars (i.e. the dollar figure expected to be paid or received expressed in the year of the payment). Nominal dollars are calculated assuming an annual inflation rate of 2%. The annual costs and revenues are discounted back to a single value using a nominal discount rate of 5.5%. Once discounted, the total costs are compared against the incremental fare revenues to derive the net present value for the financial case as well as the lifecycle revenue to cost ratio and the operating cost recovery ratio.

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

The Financial Case is developed on the basis of conventional public sector funding of the capital investment undertaken by Metrolinx. Potential partnership opportunities to reduce Metrolinx’s capital investment will be explored in future phases of work. Appendix A summarizes all the financial baseline assumptions and data sources.

5.3 Financial Criteria

The financial criteria consist of the financial implications of constructing and operating the proposed new station in terms of lifecycle costs and revenues for Metrolinx. Costs include the capital expenditure as well as incremental station and train operating costs. Incremental revenues may include fare revenue, advertising, and proceeds from disposal of assets. However, at this stage, the assessment only considers the additional fare revenues for GO. The dollar figures below are in present value (PV) terms, unless otherwise indicated. 5.3.1 Capital Costs

Capital costs include both direct and non-direct costs incurred to construct the station. Direct costs relate to the actual construction of the infrastructure; non-direct costs cover all related costs such as those related to risk/contingency, design and project management. Major refurbishments over the 60-year life cycle also form part of the station’s capital costs.

Based on the station concept presented in Figure 3-1, the order-of-magnitude station cost includes property acquisition, a 50% contingency allowance, and a 15% allowance for engineering, construction administration, and management.

This cost estimate assumes refurbishment costs for key project elements at varying intervals, including station amenities (platform, shelters, elevators, etc.), railway modifications, site and access provisions (roadworks, sidewalks, parking facilities, etc.) and structures.

The station would be constructed within the existing GO Barrie rail corridor, with some facilities extending to the east. No track realignment will be required to accommodate the station. It is assumed that any works associated with implementing a proposed third (express) track in the corridor would be budgeted separately.

Side passenger platforms will be constructed adjacent to the rail line, with elevators/stairs connecting to street-level access facilities such as parking, PPUOD, and transit connections.

Given the level of anticipated ridership, as well as suburban commuters’ preference for using automobiles to access transit stations (as evidenced by Rutherford GO, with its 70% automobile mode share for passenger access), the station concept includes a parking structure. When combined with available surface parking, approximately 50% of Highway 7-Concord’s 2031 daily ridership could park at the station. Ridership growth would have to be accommodated by passengers accessing the station using other means such as local transit, walking or cycling, carpool, or Kiss-and-Ride.

Other major cost items associated with the construction of Highway 7-Concord include:

 Property acquisition  A passenger services building  Eight elevators/stairs  Two new platform with five shelters each  Parking lot and site redevelopment

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

 Pedestrian grade-separation

This cost estimate includes refurbishment costs for key project elements at varying intervals, including station amenities (platform, shelters, elevators, etc.), railway modifications, site and access provisions (roadworks, sidewalks, parking facilities, etc.) and structures.

Over the 60-year lifespan of the project, capital costs amount to an estimated total of approximately $132.7M ($2015, discounted). 5.3.2 Station Operating and Maintenance Costs

The annual operating and maintenance costs consist of labour and station and ticketing machine operating and maintenance costs. They are estimated by comparing the total system operating and maintenance costs with and without the new station using the RER Model Second Generation. The station operating and maintenance costs are assumed to grow at a nominal rate of 2.05% per year until 2044 and remain constant thereafter.

For this Financial Analysis, the additional station operating costs associated with Highway 7-Concord are anticipated to be $1.37M for the first year of operation (2024), or $21.9M ($2015, discounted) over the lifecycle of the station. 5.3.3 Incremental Train Operating Costs

The incremental train operating costs consist primarily of crew costs, operations administration and management and wayside power. They are also estimated using the RER Model Second Generation. The assessment assumes that the train operating costs fluctuate at annual nominal rates varying between –2.8% and 2.8% until 2044 and remain constant thereafter.

The introduction of a Highway 7-Concord station to the GO Barrie line is expected to impose a 2.0-minute delay per train serving the station. This time is due to train deceleration, dwell time to serve passengers, and acceleration to return to operating speed. For this Financial Analysis, the net costs associated with a station at Highway 7-Concord are assumed to be $0. It is assumed that the existing downstream York University station would be closed in lieu of a new station at Highway 7-Concord, and that any train operating costs associated with the new station would be offset by savings associated with the closure of York University.

Table 5-2: Capital and Operating Cost Estimates (Millions of 2015 $, Present Value, 60-Year Period)

Highway 7- Capital and Operating Cost Estimates (Millions of 2015 $, PV) Concord Capital Costs $141.7 Subtotal - Capital Cost Elements $106.1 Property Allowance $16.0 Professional Services (15%) $19.6 Station Operating Costs $21.9 Train Operating Costs $0.0 Total Costs $163.6

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5.3.4 Incremental Fare Revenues

The ridership impacts are based on 2031 ridership estimates and projected using an annual ridership growth rate assumption of 6.8% until 2044 and no ridership growth thereafter. Average fares per category of riders were applied to the annual ridership estimates to derive the change in fare revenues. Ridership forecasts for Highway 7-Concord station indicate that the estimated uptake of new riders at the station would not offset the loss of riders due to the additional trip time associated with stopping at the station. The net ridership loss could result in an overall net revenue loss of approximately $174.0M ($2015, discounted) over the 60-year life-cycle of the station. Error! Reference source not found. summarizes the change in ridership and in fare revenues.

Table 5-3: Additional Ridership and Fare Revenue (60-Year Period)

Highway 7- Additional Riders and Fare Revenue Concord Total Additional GO Ridership (Millions) –103.4 New Riders Boarding or Alighting at Station 19.2 New Through Riders Alighting at Station 0.0 Change in Upstream Boardings –122.6 Total Additional GO Fare Revenues (Millions of 2015 $, PV) –$174.0 5.3.5 Revenues from Other Sources

Revenue from Land Value Capture (LVC)

Given the station’s conceptual design (see Section 3.4), lands owned and/or to be purchased by Metrolinx could yield three significant parcels for redevelopment in the short- or long-term (totalling 1.38 ha). The station's surface parking lot (0.54 ha) also represents a long-term redevelopment opportunity. These parcels represent potential revenue for Metrolinx in the form of land value capture, i.e., the ability to generate revenues from station land disposition, lease, or joint development. The station is well-situated relative to residential and retail demand (although only marginally relative to office demand), so there is significant potential for land value capture at the station site.

Parcels with potential for land-value capture are as follows:

Parcel # Location/Description Approximate Area Land-Use Designation Parcel #1 Adjacent to existing woodlot 0.25 ha Mid-Rise Mixed Use Parcel #2 Along Highway 7, west of signalized intersection 0.43 ha Mid-Rise Mixed Use Parcel #3 Along Highway 7, east of signalized intersection 0.70 ha Mid-Rise Mixed Use Parking lot West of in-and-out street 0.54 ha Mid-Rise Mixed Use

Other revenues

The project could potentially generate additional revenue from other sources. The new station provides a potential opportunity for Metrolinx to increase its advertising, concession, and lease revenues. While ridership will contribute to potential retail sales, this alone will not generally be sufficient to create retail leasing opportunities. Access to other sources of retail traffic and sales (transit, pedestrian, and automotive) are also required. The examination and quantification of retail leasing and associated revenue generation is beyond the scope of this IBC. Subject to pedestrian accessibility, there may be more advertising, concession, and lease revenue-generation potential at this station location than at others.

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

5.3.6 Net Present Value

The Net Present Value of a station is a representation of the cumulative financial implications of the undertaking, considering the station’s capital costs, refurbishment costs, station and train operating costs, and impacts on fare revenues, over the 60-year lifecycle of the station. The costs are presented in current ($2015) dollars, and take into consideration the influence of inflation on the year in which the costs are expended, or the revenues attained.

The Net Present Value for Highway 7-Concord is approximately –$328.6M (2015, discounted). The high capital and operating costs associated with the station are further exacerbated by the loss in lifecycle revenues resulting from the loss in riders generated by the station. 5.3.7 Lifecycle Revenue to Cost Ratio

The net lifecycle revenue-to-cost ratio over the 60-year lifecycle of Highway 7-Concord station indicates that the station will not generate sufficient revenue to offset its construction and maintenance costs. 5.3.8 Operating Cost Recovery Ratio

The net operating cost recovery ratio over the 60-year lifecycle of Highway 7-Concord station indicates that the station will not generate sufficient revenue to offset its operation costs.

5.4 Financial Case Sensitivity Scenarios

Implications for the Financial Case under the various sensitivity scenarios are discussed in the following table.

Table 5-4: Financial Case Sensitivity Scenarios

Scenario Options Description

 Option 1 for the station assumes that express trains on the Barrie line stop at the station  If the service concept was modified such that express trains bypass the station, Scenario Option 2A (Service negative impacts to riders using the station (inability to use express trains) would Concept Sensitivity) likely be outweighed by savings to upstream riders not using the station; as a result, the positive impacts of the station on net new revenue may be improved  Further ridership modelling is required to quantify the impacts of the two potential service concepts. Scenario Option 2B (Track  Option not considered for this IBC – no potential changes to track infrastructure Infrastructure Sensitivity) proposed (potential future 3rd track included in station concept) Scenario Option 2C (Dwell Time  Option not considered for this IBC – dwell time assumed to be typical Sensitivity) (table continued on next page)

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Scenario Option 2D (Fare  Option not considered for this IBC – fare integration already exists between Sensitivity) YRT and GO services  Significant development nearby to the station could result in substantial increases Scenario Option 2E (Horizon and to ridership at the station and improve the impact of the station on net new Land Use Sensitivity) revenue  The provision of a larger-span structure over Highway 7 to accommodate a Viva Scenario Option 2F (Construction rapidway and median Viva BRT station would significantly increase the capital of Highway 7 Structure to costs of the station; however, net impacts on the overall business case may be Accommodate Viva Rapidway) less significant due to the high ridership forecasts and would be dependent on any potential cost sharing agreement with York Region and YRT

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

6. Economic Case

6.1 Economic Case Summary

The Economic Case for Highway 7-Concord indicates that travel-time delays for existing upstream GO riders (due to an additional stop at Highway 7-Concord) far outweigh any travel time savings for new riders, and are exacerbated by behavioural changes that will significantly increase the number of vehicle kilometres travelled (as riders unhappy with travel time delays change modes to private automobiles). Highway 7-Concord’s transportation user and environmental impacts amount to a net cost of $1,252 million over the station’s 60-year evaluation period. Capital and operating costs for the new station are estimated at $124.1 million, resulting in a net loss of $1,376 million. The cost-benefit ratio indicates an overall disbenefit from the project from an economic perspective which means that for every dollar spent on the new station, there is a reduction of benefits compared to the base case for transportation users and society.

In addition to these monetized impacts, the Economic Case provides a high-level qualitative assessment of the productivity gains, local real estate development, economic development opportunities (in terms of job creation and additional value added), and distributional impacts associated with the new station. Table 6-1 summarizes the key results of the Economic Case.

Table 6-1: Benefit-Cost Analysis Summary Results (Millions of 2015 $, Present Value)

Highway 7- Benefit-Cost Analysis Summary Results (Millions of 2015 $, PV) Concord Travel Time Savings (Millions of Person-Hours) –79.4 Auto Distances Saved (Millions of VKTs) –2,371.1 Benefits –$1,252.5 Costs $124.1 Net Present Value –$1,376.6 Benefit-Cost Ratio all-loss Transportation User Impacts –$1,246.0 Travel Time Savings –$544.0 Vehicle Operating Cost Savings –$487.8 Decongestion on Road Network –$162.3 Safety Impacts –$51.9 Environmental Impacts –$6.5

A legend is contained in Appendix D.

6.2 Approach

The Economic Case highlights the overall value generated by the proposed station option(s). The benefit-cost analysis undertaken as part of the Economic Case documents and quantifies the project costs for the GTHA and

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

Ontario, the transportation user impacts and the environmental outcomes which can be monetized and included in a cost-benefit analysis. The Economic Case does not consider incremental fare revenues because while they represent out-of-pocket costs to the users, they also represent a revenue gain to the transit operator, therefore offsetting each other overall. In other words, the GTHA is no better or worse off overall as a result of the change in fare revenue. All costs and benefits are stated in 2015 dollars. Once monetized and discounted, the economic and environmental impacts are compared to the capital and operating costs to derive the net present value and the benefit-cost ratio for the new station. The dollar figures below are in present value terms, using a real discount rate of 3.5% per year. Appendix A summarizes the economic case baseline assumptions.

6.3 Economic Criteria

The economic criteria examined in the cost-benefit assessment include the project costs, the transportation user impacts and the environmental impacts. In addition to the monetized impacts, the Economic Case considers the economic development impacts associated with the new station. These are assessed qualitatively. 6.3.1 Project Costs

6.3.1.1 Capital Costs

The project costs are based on the same cost estimates used in the Financial Case (see 0) but discounted using a real discount rate of 3.5%. Also, the economic assessment does not take into account land and property acquisition fees, which are considered a transfer between economic agents, as in the case of fare revenues.

Based on the station concept presented in Figure 3-1, the order-of-magnitude station cost includes a 50% contingency allowance and 15% allowance for engineering, construction administration, and management. Over the 60-year lifespan of the project, the combined costs amount to an estimated total of approximately $124.0M ($2015, discounted).

6.3.1.2 Station Operating and Maintenance (O&M) Costs

For this Economic Analysis, the additional station operating costs associated with a proposed station at Highway 7- Concord are anticipated to be $21.5M ($2015, discounted) over the 60-year lifecycle of the station.

6.3.1.3 Incremental Train Operating Costs

Highway 7-Concord, serving the GO Barrie line, is expected to impose a 2.0-minute delay per train serving the station. This time is due to train deceleration, dwell time to serve passengers, and acceleration to return to operating speed. For this Economic Analysis, the additional train operating costs associated with Highway 7-Concord are assumed to be $0, assuming that the existing downstream York University station would be closed in lieu of a new station at Highway 7-Concord, and that any train operating costs associated with the new station would be offset by savings associated with the closure of York University station. 6.3.2 Transportation User Impacts

The transportation user impacts consist of the travel time impacts, auto operating cost savings, decongestion impacts on the road network and road safety outcomes resulting from the new station. These benefits are monetized, discounted and incorporated into the benefit-cost analysis, as shown in Table 6-1 above.

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6.3.2.1 Travel Time Savings

The travel time impacts are based on the same modelling process used to assess the change in ridership described above. The impacts are monetized using a value of time of $16.71 per hour which is assumed to rise at a real growth rate of 1.6% per year until 2044 and remain constant thereafter. Table 6-2 presents the travel time impacts by category of riders expressed in millions of passenger-hours and the total monetized travel time impacts over the time horizon.

The proposed Highway 7-Concord station will result in increased net travel times for new and existing passengers on the GO Barrie line. The station is anticipated to be an origin for a small number of new passengers. The resulting travel time savings for boarding passengers is estimated to be 43 minutes for those within walking distance of the station, and ten minutes for those from farther afield. While the volume of passengers alighting at the station is anticipated to be relatively small when compared to those boarding, those alighting at the station would also be expected to benefit from similar travel time savings of approximately 43 minutes per passenger. For the 2031 horizon year, the cumulative passenger travel-time savings associated with the station are estimated to be 27,460 minutes per day.

However, passengers on the Barrie line destined to stations beyond Highway 7-Concord would experience a delay as a result of the new station. It is anticipated that service to Highway 7-Concord would result in an additional 2.0 minutes of delay per passenger. For the 2031 horizon year used in this analysis, cumulative passenger delays associated with the new station are estimated to be 166,000 minutes per day.

Over the 60-year lifecycle of the station, the cumulative net total travel-time losses are estimated to be 79.4M hours. When a time value of $16.71/hour is applied, the net travel-time savings result in a total monetized transit user travel-time cost of $544.0M ($2015, discounted).

Table 6-2: Travel Time Impacts (60-Year Period)

Highway 7- Travel Time Savings Concord Total Travel Time Savings (Millions of Passenger-Hours) –79.4 Upstream Users –95.2 Existing Riders Boarding or Alighting at Station 11.3 New Riders Boarding or Alighting at Station 4.4 Existing Through Riders 0.0 New Through Riders 0.0 Total Travel Time Savings (Millions of 2015$, PV) –$544.0

6.3.2.2 Change in Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKTs)

Behavioural changes may result from expected time savings or penalties generated by the new station. For upstream users, the time penalty might encourage a modal switch towards auto use, resulting in additional VKTs. On the other hand, a portion of new users boarding or alighting at the new station might be switching from automobiles, resulting in VKT savings.

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

Overall, the introduction of a Highway 7-Concord station is anticipated to have a negative impact on personal automobile use. The station is expected to attract approximately 3,940 passengers daily (as of 2031), and ridership forecasts assume that 20% of these riders will have diverted to GO rail service from an automobile. Further, it is estimated that passengers’ current automobile trips are, on average, approximately 38.7 km in length prior to transferring to GO service. However, it is also estimated that approximately 3,510 daily passengers would be lost (as of 2031) as a result of the delays associated with a new Highway 7-Concord station. Of these, ridership forecasts again assume that 20% would be diverted to automobiles, with an average trip length of 50.8 km per passenger.

The resulting net increase in VKTs is anticipated to be 2,371.1M vehicle-km over the 60-year lifecycle of the station.

Table 6-3: Changes in Auto Distances Traveled (60-Year Period)

Highway 7- Reduction in Auto Distances Traveled (Millions of VKTs) Concord Upstream Users –2,457.0 Boarding or Alighting at New Station 85.9 Alighting Through 0.0 Total VKT Savings –2,371.1

6.3.2.3 Vehicle Operating Cost Savings

Vehicle operating costs consist of out-of-pocket costs borne by individuals driving their vehicle. They are estimated by applying a value of 63 cents per unit change in VKTs. The unit cost is assumed to rise at a real growth rate of 0.7% per year until 2044 and remain constant thereafter.

Application of the above-noted average unit vehicle operating cost suggests that the introduction of a Highway 7- Concord station would result in a net increase of $14.9M in vehicle operating costs in 2031, or $487.8M ($2015, discounted) over the lifecycle of the station.

6.3.2.4 Decongestion Impacts on Road Network

The decongestion impacts are estimated by applying a value of 16.7 cents per unit change in VKTs. The assessment also assumes this value rises at a real growth rate of 1.6% until 2044.

Application of the above-noted average unit road decongestion cost suggests that the introduction of a Highway 7- Concord station would result in a net increase of $4.45M in road congestion costs in 2031, or $162.3M ($2015, discounted) over the lifecycle of the station. 6.3.2.5 Safety Impacts

Automobile use carries a higher risk of death or injury than transit use. Consequently, any reduction in auto usage will result in a safety benefit. The safety benefits are monetized by applying a value of eight cents to the change in VKTs to account for the accidents and collisions resulting from the changes in vehicle kilometres driven.

Application of the above-noted unit safety benefit cost suggests that the introduction of a Highway 7-Concord would result in a net increase of $1.65M in safety-related costs in 2031, or $51.9M ($2015, discounted) in costs over the lifecycle of the station.

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6.3.3 Environmental Impacts

6.3.3.1 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Impacts

Encouraging transit use results in lower emissions of greenhouse gases. The emission of greenhouse gases has an environmental cost associated with it, and the mode shift generated by the new station has a benefit that can be monetised. The change in greenhouse gases results from a reduction in auto vehicle-kilometres travelled from the mode shift away from auto use. The environmental impacts are monetized by applying a unit value of one cent per VKT saved. These benefits do not take into account the additional GHG emissions resulting from the additional train acceleration and deceleration at the new station.

Application of the above-noted unit GHG emission cost savings suggests that the introduction of a Highway 7- Concord station would result in a net increase of $0.21M in GHG emission costs in 2031, or $6.5M ($2015, discounted) over the lifecycle of the station.

6.3.4 Benefit Cost Analysis Results

6.3.4.1 Net Present Value (NPV)

The Net Present Value for Highway 7-Concord is approximately –$1,376.6M (2015, discounted). The anticipated decrease in ridership resulting from delays from stopping at the station, and a corresponding increase in overall transportation user costs for lost riders, are too great to be offset by the benefits anticipated for the new users at the station.

6.3.4.2 Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR)

The BCR is calculated by dividing total discounted benefits by total discounted costs (capital and operating). A ratio lower than 1 indicates that benefits do not cover costs over the lifecycle and that the option under consideration is destroying economic value. A ratio higher than 1 indicates that benefits exceed costs over the project’s lifecycle and that the option under consideration is creating economic value.

The net benefit-to-cost ratio of a new station at Highway 7-Concord, over the 60-year lifecycle of the station, indicates an overall disbenefit to the project from an economic perspective which means that for every dollar spent on the new station, there is a reduction of benefits compared to the base case for transportation users and society, driven largely by the net increase in travel time to existing upstream passengers, and the subsequent loss of riders. 6.3.5 Economic Development Impacts

This IBC considers the following economic development impacts: agglomeration economies, project spending, income/distributional impacts, and property and land value changes. These wider economic benefits are almost entirely incremental to the benefits calculated under the transportation impacts above. However, substantial work is needed to quantify these benefits. Hence, they are only assessed qualitatively at this stage.

6.3.5.1 Wider Economic Benefits

The negative transportation user impacts assessed are likely to result in negative wider economic benefits. Agglomeration economies, the main source of wider economic benefits, represent the potential of a new station to bring jobs and economic activity closer together, leading to knowledge spill-overs, improved employer-employee

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matching, and other impacts that reduce transaction costs and encourage firm growth. These economies arise when a new station results in a reduction in generalized travel costs (i.e. time savings, reduced auto operating costs and any road decongestion benefits which reduce the effective distance between economic activities). In this case, the generalized journey costs increase. Hence, we would expect negative wider economic impacts as a result of the introduction of the proposed station.

Other wider economic benefits include the impact of the station on imperfect competition and increased labour supply. The impact on imperfect competition represents the benefits resulting from increased competition between firms, spurring efficiency, innovation, reduced prices and increased consumer welfare. The increased labour supply refers more specifically to the increased tax revenues from increased labour force participation through improved access to employment resulting from lower travel costs. While further work is needed to quantify these wider economic benefits, they are unlikely to be positive given the negative transportation user impacts.

6.3.5.2 Economic Impacts

The economic impacts show how each dollar spent translates into direct and indirect output, employment and wages in the region. Impacts consist of both the temporary impacts expected to accrue as a result of the capital outlays to construct the new station and recurring annual impacts resulting from the operation of the station and additional train services. Hence, for the new station, the capital expenditure reported above is expected to create increased economic activity during the two-year construction period. In terms of operating expenditure, the impacts are expected to contribute only modestly to the region’s employment, earnings and GDP.

6.3.5.3 Income / Distributional Impacts

Adding a new station to the GO network contributes social/community benefits for different social groups, including the elderly population and lower income households.

The elderly population relies on regional and local transit for access to goods and services to meet their everyday needs in the regional and urban centres (such as medical services). Hence, the new station is expected to provide the elderly with an improved alternative to travelling by car to access services and to support their ability to travel with independence, thereby enhancing their quality of life. The new station could also support the creation of additional housing opportunities for the elderly population, closer to necessary services in the centres, as additional transit oriented development takes place near the station.

The lower income population also has a strong need for mobility choices and is particularly reliant on transit to access jobs, training and education. The new station could thus play a role in providing improved accessibility to key employment centres and enhance overall mobility options for the area. It could also offer additional opportunities for those living close to the station and will reduce the need for low income households to obtain access to a first or second car. Other social groups such as youth and school aged children may also be impacted. Further work is needed to fully assess the distributional impacts at the station.

The median income in the station’s 800-m catchment area is 5% less than that of the GTHA as a whole. Additional details about the station’s proximity to low-income neighbourhoods and designated Neighbourhood Improvement Areas are available in Section 4.5.4. Station accessibility is addressed in Section 3. 6.3.5.4 Property and Land Value Changes

The station’s potential for Metrolinx land value capture is addressed in Section 5.3.5. However, the construction of a new station at Highway 7-Concord also has the potential to affect surrounding property values. This “land value

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

uplift” is the increase in the catchment area’s assessed value base likely to result from the introduction or enhancement of higher order transit. Factors that can affect property value uplift potential (related to the development of higher-order transit) include travel time savings, current assessed property values, economic/market development potential, the extent and nature of developable land, public urban renewal/revitalization plans, private master development plans, the extent and nature of mobility hub plans, the extent and nature of land ownership, and the municipal, regional, and provincial regulatory environment.

Limited property value uplift is projected for the lands surrounding Highway 7-Concord, totalling approximately $95M ($2015) by 2031. The majority of this value uplift will be approximately equally divided between the existing assessed value base and new development. Methodological details for this estimate are contained in Appendix C.

6.4 Economic Case Sensitivity Scenarios

Implications for the Economic Case under the various sensitivity scenarios are discussed in the following table.

Table 6-4: Economic Case Sensitivity Scenarios

Scenario Options Description

 Option 1 for the station assumes that express trains on the Barrie line stop at the station  If the service concept was modified such that express trains bypass the station, negative impacts to riders using the station (inability to use express trains) would Scenario Option 2A (Service likely be outweighed by savings to upstream riders not using the station; as a Concept Sensitivity) result, the positive impacts of the station on travel time savings, VKTs, emissions, and new revenue may be improved  Further ridership modelling is required to quantify the impacts of the two potential service concepts Scenario Option 2B (Track  Option not considered for this IBC – no potential changes to track infrastructure Infrastructure Sensitivity) proposed (potential future 3rd track included in station concept) Scenario Option 2C (Dwell Time  Option not considered for this IBC – dwell time assumed to be typical Sensitivity) Scenario Option 2D (Fare  Option not considered for this IBC – fare integration already exists between YRT Sensitivity) and GO services  Significant development nearby to the station could result in substantial increases Scenario Option 2E (Horizon and to ridership at the station and improve the net impact of the new station on travel Land Use Sensitivity) time savings, VKTs, emissions, and new revenue  The provision of a larger-span structure over Highway 7 to accommodate a Viva Scenario Option 2F (Construction rapidway and median Viva BRT station would significantly increase the capital of Highway 7 Structure to costs of the station; however, net impacts on the overall business case may be Accommodate Viva Rapidway) less significant due to the high ridership forecasts and would be dependent on any potential cost sharing agreement with York Region and YRT

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7. Deliverability and Operations Case

7.1 Deliverability and Operations Case Summary

The Delivery and Operations Case for Highway 7-Concord concludes that the station could be constructed mainly within the existing rail corridor, with relatively low complexity. However, private property acquisitions will be necessary, and the station’s proximity to residential areas will also result in noise and vibration impacts to sensitive nearby receptors. There is also one heritage property adjacent to the west. Traffic disruptions during construction are expected to be minimal. A provincial Environmental Assessment will be required, as well as Phase I and/or Phase II Environmental Site Assessments, and environmental impacts to the nearby West Don River are possible, although these should be able to be mitigated. The station will also be subject to Ontario’s Transit Project Assessment Process (TPAP) and typical municipal approvals. The station’s conceptual design protects for future facility expansion (including redevelopment of surface parking and PPUDO facilities), intermodal connections to a future 407 Transitway, and the operation of express trains on a third track. No other key risks and impacts are expected.

Table 7-1: Deliverability and Operations Case Summary Results

Deliverability and Operations Case Summary Highway 7-Concord Constructability No track realignment required; large, unconstrained site Stakeholder Impacts Typical impacts expected, but in a natural area Room for Growth Significant expansion potential as proposed Approvals/Permits Required Only TPAP and normal permits required Operating Impacts Design protects for third (express) track Station (as designed) integrates with future planned BRT Other Key Risks and Impacts systems, with some details still unavailable

A legend is contained in Appendix D.

7.2 Approach

The Deliverability and Operations Case provides evidence of the ease of constructing the station, operating service through the station, and the further steps required before a station can be implemented. This case also outlines the project risks known at this stage, such as disruption during construction and potential operating changes that affect the performance of the station. Except where otherwise specified (see Section 7.3.5), this IBC assumes that all local service trains on the Barrie line will stop at the new station, and that the overall GO service concept would otherwise be unaffected by the new station.

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7.3 Deliverability and Operations Criteria 7.3.1 Constructability

Highway 7-Concord would be located in an active but relatively unconstrained rail corridor. At this location, the rail corridor accommodates one active rail line, but is proposed to be widened by up to two additional tracks. At this location, platforms appear to be constructible without requiring any realignment of existing or proposed tracks. Side platforms can be constructed on fill adjacent to existing and proposed tracks. Existing track grade has been assumed to be sufficient for platform construction, requiring no rail corridor profile adjustment. Construction of pedestrian tunnels may require minor and temporary works within the rail right-of-way.

The proposed station will require the acquisition of property currently used by the existing storage facility to the east. Additional lands, currently occupied by low-density commercial uses, would have to be acquired in order to construct proposed site access routes, but could then be redeveloped following the construction of an access roadway.

Construction of a proposed parking structure would use conventional building techniques. Given the size of the site, no construction staging challenges are expected when building the parking structure.

It is assumed that any works associated with twinning or tripling the existing track would be borne by a separate project. 7.3.2 Stakeholder Impacts

Implementation of the proposed station would require an Environmental Assessment (EA) to identify the range of environmental impacts associated with the project, mitigation measures needed to address these impacts, and commitments to address issues that would be more appropriately dealt with at later stages of the project. The EA process also includes a structured program of stakeholder consultations to assist with identifying impacts. It is difficult to anticipate all site-specific impacts prior to undertaking an EA, but some expected environmental impacts include those associated with:

 Noise and vibration (due to construction and operation of vehicles)  Air quality (relating to vehicle emissions, dust, etc.)  Built heritage (potential presence of heritage stations, buildings, bridges, culverts, landscapes)  Archaeology  Natural heritage (e.g., species at risk, wetlands, in-water works, vegetation)  Traffic and changes to travel patterns as a result of the project (including and relating to disruption during construction, increased train crossings at-grade, etc.)  Socio-economic impacts

Regulatory processes are in place to ensure these impacts are addressed. There are numerous mitigation measures available for addressing impacts; some examples include noise walls, silt fences, dust suppression, and environmental monitoring. The nature of impacts varies with the type of infrastructure and nearby receptors. Property takings are often required, impacting private landowners. The lands on which Highway 7-Concord station is proposed to be built are currently occupied by a storage facility and green space. These properties would need to be acquired and redeveloped in order to implement the proposed station.

Stakeholders are also likely to be affected by disruptions from utility relocations, traffic, noise, and other potential impacts mentioned above. Corridor work including tracks, signals, and alterations to bridges and structures will also have impacts during both construction and ongoing operations.

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Impacts are generally more pronounced in areas where there are sensitive receptors, such as residential or institutional areas, natural features, or heritage resources. In the case of Highway 7-Concord, the impacts to sensitive receptors could be significant given the presence of residential development within close proximity to the station site. Although there are no community facilities (schools, community centres, recreational facilities) immediately adjacent to the station site, Southview Park is immediately west of the rail corridor, and there is also one listed property with cultural heritage value immediately adjacent to the station site:

 1929 Highway 7: a 19th-century brick residence on a larger industrial property that abuts the western side of the rail corridor

Highway 7-Concord would be located in a suburban area adjacent to a tributary of the West Don River, and the station’s development therefore has the potential to affect these significant natural environment features. Measures may be required to protect the local aquatic/riparian habitat conditions during construction. The West Don River and the tributaries are warm-water systems that generally support a tolerant fish community and are considered of low sensitivity. Any impacts would be subject to further detailed assessment and consultation with the appropriate agencies (e.g., Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, Ministry of Natural Resources, etc.) during the Transit Project Assessment Process phase of the project. Given the significant amount of site grading and excavation required, it is also assumed that there will also be potential for site sediment runoff, and appropriate sediment control measures will be required during construction staging plan ensure that runoff does not affect the watercourse.

The 407 Transitway Environmental Assessment study undertaken by the MTO included a comprehensive assessment of the potential natural environment impacts associated with a proposed Highway 7-Concord station and associated Transitway station. The following is an excerpt from the EA report:

 “The vegetation community located east of the GO Barrie line is a young to mid-aged succession community which is dominated by invasive Manitoba maple and black locust trees. This is a relatively natural vegetation community…The loss of wetland plant species within these vegetation communities is expected to be minor as all of the plants species identified have populations that are abundant and secure within Ontario, and populations of those plants will still persist in the remaining portions of habitat…No plant species that are regulated under the Endangered Species Act or the Species At Risk Act were encountered during botanical investigations.”9

Rail traffic along the GO Barrie corridor is and will continue to be a source of noise and vibration impacts for adjacent properties. With the increase in train traffic associated with the proposed RER program, it is anticipated that noise and vibration impacts will also increase. In addition, train deceleration and acceleration associated with new service to Highway 7-Concord would be expected to result in further noise and air-quality impacts to adjacent sensitive receptors, including residential developments adjacent to the rail corridor. Potential noise impacts associated with the new station will require further evaluation through an Environmental Assessment study in accordance with MOE, City of Vaughan, York Region, and GO Transit noise protocols.

Localized construction-related noise and air quality impacts should be anticipated. Air-quality impacts associated with construction typically take the form of dust associated with re-grading and excavation activities and construction equipment exhaust. It is anticipated that the excavation required to construct the pedestrian tunnels and surface works associated with the development of platforms will be the primary generators of airborne dust. Dust can be mitigated somewhat through the use of conventional dust-suppression techniques (e.g., water spraying).

9 407 Transitway Environmental Project Report, MTO, 2010

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Highway 7-Concord is proposed to be constructed within and adjacent to an existing rail corridor. This poses contamination-related concerns typical of rail facilities; construction of station elements (such as the platform and pedestrian tunnels) would likely require excavation and removal of potentially contaminated materials including contaminated rail ballast, bedding and fill material associated with the use of slag, coal cinders, and ash. Excess soil will require waste classification in accordance with applicable regulatory requirements. Regulatory requirements in place at the time of construction, as well as excess materials management guidelines and specifications, would have to be used when developing an excess materials management plan in accordance with MOE standards, Ontario Regulation 153/04, and Ontario Provincial Standard Specification 180 (General Specification for the Management of Excess Materials). During typical rail operations, potential risks associated with contamination are limited to spills including diesel, oil, etc. These may result in site contamination within the rail corridor.

A Phase I and/or Phase II Environmental Site Assessment will likely have to be undertaken for the proposed Highway 7-Concord station (in accordance with Ontario Regulation 153/04, as amended) for affected properties. This study would support both property acquisition and station construction activities. These assessments would likely be undertaken as part of a required Environmental Assessment study in the planning phase of the project. 7.3.3 Room for Growth

The station’s conceptual design protects for a third (express service) track, in addition to the second track that is currently planned, and for a potential connection to the planned future 407 Transitway. Alternative expansion of facilities could be accommodated through the expansion of above-grade parking or the redevelopment of surface parking provided in the initial station concept. Expansions could accommodate additional parking, PPUDO, or inter- modal facilities that would improve station access and network connectivity. However, any expansion would be somewhat constrained by the Highway 7 rail overpass, adjacent residential properties, and the nearby Don River floodplain.

There is an approved EA study for a future Highway 407 Transitway station that would be integrated into the station site. It is anticipated that further opportunities for station expansion would be limited unless lands required for the Highway 407 Transitway were to be used. 7.3.4 Approvals/Permits Required

Transit Project Assessment Process (TPAP)

The proposed station would require a provincial environmental approval. Ontario Regulation 231/08 (Transit Projects and Metrolinx Undertakings) exempts proponents of all public transit projects from the requirements under Part II of the Ontario Environmental Assessment (EA) Act (EAA), and establishes a process that applicable projects must follow in order to be exempt. Ontario Regulation 231/08 outlines the “Transit Project Assessment Process” (TPAP), which a proponent must follow for certain classes of transit projects including the development of new stations within or adjacent to residential land uses (i.e., this project). The TPAP provides a framework for a focused consultation process so that an assessment of a project’s potential environmental impacts can be completed within six months.

Canadian Environmental Assessment Act (CEAA)

Under the current Canadian Environmental Assessment Act (CEAA, 2012), which came into effect on July 6, 2012, proponents of “designated” projects are required to follow a federal environmental assessment process. A new station at Highway 7-Concord would not meet the definition of a “designated” project under the CEAA, and it is therefore not anticipated that this station would require approval under the CEAA.

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Other approvals required

In order to implement the station, Metrolinx may need to secure additional permits and approvals. The following list of permits and approvals reflects those typical of this type of project in the City of Vaughan and York Region:

 Planning review (such as Site Plan Approval or equivalencies) for above-grade structures and facilities (through the City of Toronto)  Building permits for the station buildings, pedestrian tunnels, parking structure and other ancillary features  Permit to Take Water from the MOECC, if dewatering exceeds 50,000 litres per day  TRCA permits and approvals for work within a regulated area  Stormwater management, in accordance with City of Vaughan and TRCA requirements  Sewer discharge approvals, in accordance with City of Vaughan and York Region requirements

The specific requirements for the above-noted permits and approvals would be identified throughout the TPAP phase of the project. 7.3.5 Operating Impacts

A third track, protected for in the station concept, would be required to allow express trains to bypass the station. The overall impact of this station on train operations would be negligible, given the assumption that, if built, it would replace the existing York University station. While there may be marginally longer train dwell times at Highway 7- Concord than at York University, it is expected that the dwell time difference would not be significant when compared to the total delay (deceleration, dwell, and acceleration combined) associated with serving the station. 7.3.6 Other Key Risks and Impacts

A risk is posed by accommodating the planned (but unfunded) 407 Transitway in the conceptual station design. Because the timeline for this future transit infrastructure project is currently unknown, there is potential that it would not be implemented until many years after Highway 7-Concord was built. Similarly, while Viva service will likely be implemented along Highway 7 before a new GO station was built, some risk is also presented by uncertainties around future changes to this service (e.g., the implementation of median lanes or the diversion of buses into the station).

7.4 Deliverability and Operations Case Sensitivity Scenarios

Consideration has been given in the analysis to the potential for accommodating a future Viva rapidway along Highway 7. The rapidway would likely entail construction of a two-lane bus rapid transit facility in the median of Highway 7, which would trigger the need to reconstruct the rail structure over Highway 7 to accommodate a wider roadway cross-section.

Further implications for the Deliverability and Operations Case under the various sensitivity scenarios are discussed in the following table:

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Scenario Options Description

Scenario Option 2A (Service  Not anticipated to significantly affect the Delivery and Operations Case Concept Sensitivity) Scenario Option 2B (Track  Option not considered for this IBC – no potential changes to track infrastructure Infrastructure Sensitivity) proposed (potential future 3rd track included in station concept) Scenario Option 2C (Dwell Time  Option not considered for this IBC – dwell time assumed to be typical Sensitivity) Scenario Option 2D (Fare  Option not considered for this IBC – fare integration already exists between YRT Sensitivity) and GO services  If significant development occurred on adjacent properties in advance of detailed Scenario Option 2E (Horizon and station planning and property acquisition, the Constructability and Room for Land Use Sensitivity) Growth of the new station could decrease significantly Scenario Option 2F (Construction  The provision of a larger-span structure over Highway 7 to accommodate a Viva of Highway 7 Structure to rapidway and median Viva BRT station would increase the complexity, property Accommodate Viva Rapidway) requirements, and short-term impacts of construction

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8. Conclusions and Findings

As a potential new GO station on the Barrie line, Highway 7-Concord offers some benefits, including its low complexity of construction, its policy alignment, and its potential to integrate and support a future planned mobility hub and other regional transit investments. However, the station is predicted to result in a net ridership loss on the GO Barrie line, significantly increase automobile use by commuters, and yield a strongly negative net present value. The assessment of Highway 7-Concord’s potential concludes that while the station performs well in the Deliverability & Operations Case, its Strategic Case performance is marginal, and its Financial and Economic Case performances are poor.

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Appendix A: Financial and Economic Case Baseline Assumptions

Model Input Assumptions Metric Source(s)

Project Evaluation Period (Years) 60 Guidance Handbook_Feb2016.xls Year of Cost Estimates 2015 Guidance Handbook_Feb2016.xls Annual inflation rate – General Price Level 2% RER Initial Business Case (June 2015) AECOM estimate based on 5-year average of non- Annual Inflation Rate – Construction Spending 2% residential construction price index in Toronto (Statistics Canada) 250 (peak) RER Initial Business Case (June 2015) Annualization Factor (days/year) 300 (off-peak) Business Case Development Handbook (Tier 3) Discount Rate, Nominal (%)10 5.5% RER Initial Business Case (June 2015) Construction Period (start and end dates) 2022-2023 RER Initial Business Case (June 2015) Discount Rate, Real (%) 3.5% RER Initial Business Case (June 2015) Value of Time ($/hr in 2015$) $16.71 Guidance Handbook_Feb2016.xls Value of Time Annual Growth Rate, Real (%) 1.6% (2015-2044) Metrolinx Legacy Approach (Benefits cases) and capped in 2044 Auto Operating Cost ($/VKT) $0.63 Metrolinx Legacy Approach (Benefits cases) Auto Operating Cost Growth Rate, Real (%) 0.7% Metrolinx Legacy Approach (Benefits cases) Decongestion on Road Network ($/VKT) $0.167 Metrolinx Legacy Approach (Benefits cases) Decongestion on Road Network Growth Rate, Real 1.6% Metrolinx Legacy Approach (Benefits cases) (%) Accident Reduction Benefit ($/VKT) $0.08 Metrolinx Legacy Approach (Benefits cases) Greenhouse Gas Emission (GHG) Costs in CO2e $0.01 Metrolinx Legacy Approach (Benefits cases) ($/VKT) Ridership annual growth rate – Lakeshore W (%) 2.4% to 2044 MX TT Savings Spreadsheet v2.9 Ridership annual growth rate – Milton (%) 1.3% to 2044 MX TT Savings Spreadsheet v2.9 Ridership annual growth rate – Kitchener (%) 4.6% to 2044 MX TT Savings Spreadsheet v2.9 Ridership annual growth rate – Barrie (%) 6.8% to 2044 MX TT Savings Spreadsheet v2.9 Ridership annual growth rate – Richmond Hill (%) 2.2% to 2044 MX TT Savings Spreadsheet v2.9 Ridership annual growth rate – Stouffville (%) 4.0% to 2044 MX TT Savings Spreadsheet v2.9 Ridership annual growth rate – Lakeshore E (%) 2.5% to 2044 MX TT Savings Spreadsheet v2.9 MX Travel Time Savings Spreadsheet Simulation 2031 MX TT Savings Spreadsheet v2.9 Year

10 Financial analysis is typically conducted in nominal currency (i.e. dollars expressed in year or period of spending). The nominal discount rate used should be consistent with the real discount rate used in cost-benefit analysis (see Section 6). The Metrolinx Business Case Handbook (tier 3) suggests the use of a real discount rate (i.e. after the inflation component is removed) of 3.5% for the benefit-cost analysis and an inflation rate of 2% for the financial analysis. Hence, this would imply that the relevant nominal discount rate for financial analysis should be 5.5%.

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Appendix B: Travel Time Savings Analysis

Introduction

The analysis of alternative new stations relies upon a consideration of the changes in traveller behaviour that would occur in response to the presence of the proposed new stations. The stations provide new options for both existing GO Rail users and users of other transportation modes (other transit and auto). Existing GO Rail users may also be negatively impacted by the added stop at the new station. Examining travel time savings and delays associated with each new station is therefore the focal point of this analysis.

The new stations can have both positive and negative effects on transit passenger travel times:

 Passengers who use the new stations save travel time. The station access or egress time is lower than it would be without the new station, when access/egress would have been to the next closest station.  Passengers who do not use the new stations can experience a travel delay, due to the extra time required for the train trip to stop at the new station, typically 2-3 min. per station.

As a result of the travel time savings and delays, some travellers may shift their route or mode of transportation. There will be both gains and losses of RER passengers due to these route and mode shifts. Some passengers may be attracted to RER by the new stations and shift from non-GO routes to an RER trip or a combined RER+subway/bus trip. Other passengers may be diverted from RER due to the longer total travel time caused by the new station and shift from an RER trip to a subway/bus trip or a driving trip.

To account for the impacts of these new stations on passengers, it is helpful to categorize the different types of passengers into the five groups shown in Table 2.

Table 2: Segmentation of demand into five groups of passengers that experience a new station differently.

Would ride Would ride Accesses/ GO Rail Effect of new Passenger GO Rail egresses Description without station(s) on Type with new via new new travel time? station(s)? station(s)? station(s)? Existing & unaffected GO Rail riders No Change Group A    (“downstream” or express riders) (no delay or savings) Existing “upstream” GO Rail riders Group B   Delayed  (affected but do not change behaviour) Shift GO Rail access/egress station Group C   Time Savings  (existing but would prefer new station) Attracted to GO Rail (shift route/mode Group D   Time Savings  due to easier access/egress) Diverted from GO Rail (existing, shift Group E   Delayed  route/mode due to delay) Note: “downstream” means locations closer to Union Station than the new station site.

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Combining these groups of passengers in different manners helps to understand what happens to overall GO Rail ridership at each new station:

 C + D = Gross riders that access/egress at the new station(s)  D – E = Net new riders on the GO Rail system due to the new station(s)  B, C, D, E: all affected by addition of new stations, and experience either a positive or negative time impact. The impact is different for each group.

The primary drivers of travel time savings benefits and offsetting impacts can be summarized as follows:

 Drivers of Travel Time Savings o High employment or full-time post-secondary institution within 1 km of the station (i.e., surrounding land uses attract AM peak alighting riders). o New boarding riders within 1km of station (i.e., ability to walk to station). o A “through” service stopping at the station after letting most passengers off at Union Station (i.e., very little or no “upstream” existing riders are delayed).  Offsets to Travel Time Savings o High number of “upstream” passengers that are delayed with no express service option to bypass the new station. o High delay at station (e.g., on slower accelerating diesel locomotive-hauled trip). o Presence of an attractive parallel transit service (e.g., TTC subway) that may compete with the new station.

Alighting riders and new boarding riders that are within 1km of a new station are generally the most significant drivers of benefits since these riders are dependent on walking and/or transit for station access/egress. Access/egress by these modes can be quite time consuming and a new station can offer significant time savings relative to the case without the station in place, depending on the geography and configuration of the local area transit network.

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Analysis Framework

A spreadsheet analysis framework was developed to provide estimates of travel time savings associated with each new station. The foundation for this analysis is observed 2013 GO Passenger Survey and Cordon Count data that is applied in an incremental manner for each new station. Although travel time savings is the focus of this analysis, the approach also generates estimates of vehicle kilometre reductions, ridership changes, and revenue estimates. An overview of the analysis approach is shown in Figure 5.

Figure 5: Overview of analysis approach

The analysis builds off of observed 2013 data by primarily considering what would happen if each station existed in 2013 along with the RER express/local/through service structure and the speed improvements associated with electrification. New station boardings and alightings are estimated by considering existing ridership patterns and the boarding and alighting markets that each new station may serve in the AM peak. Observed ridership at similar benchmark stations is also examined to support the analysis where applicable. Travel time savings and delays associated with the new station are estimated by considering the access/egress times and the operating parameters of the RER services that serve and pass through each station. Next, annual line level ridership growth rates obtained from the Greater Golden Horseshoe Model (a four-stage regional travel demand model) are used to expand the 2013 metrics to a 2031 level. Finally, a dollar valuation of benefits and a 60-year cash flow analysis is conducted.

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Assumptions

Key assumptions that have been applied within this framework are summarized below:

 RER ridership and annual growth rates: Application of line level ridership growth rates obtained from the Greater Golden Horseshoe travel demand model to 2013 metrics. This captures the effects of population/employment growth across the region, the effects of the RER service introduction, and other committed rapid transit projects that are expected to be in place by 2031. This approach assumes that the demand growth at each new station site will be similar to line level demand growth between 2013 and 2031.  Station area development: Major developments that are committed and proceeding close to potential station sites in downtown Toronto are included (The Well at Spadina/Front St. W, Globe & Mail Centre at King E/Berkley, and Corus Quay & George Brown College). New development that is conditional on the presence of a new station is excluded from this analysis. Proposed new development that has the potential to significantly alter land use in the vicinity, but has not been approved is addressed as a sensitivity as part of each case. Development potential and real estate market demand are addressed more broadly in sections 4.4.2 and 4.4.3 respectively.  Independent analysis of new stations: The new stations are analyzed independently and their riders and benefits are considered separately. For the stations under consideration, this is deemed appropriate since the level of interaction between the new stations is not expected to be very significant; relatively few trips are expected to occur between each of the new stations (i.e. boarding at one new station and alighting at another new station).  Boarding activity by station: Starting assumption is average of two adjacent stations on same line. However, this default is adjusted based on local circumstances and observed ridership data at relevant benchmark stations. Existing riders are separated into two pools: 1) “Existing Near” – Riders within 1km of each station site; and 2) “Existing Far” - Riders who are between new and existing stations. Existing riders who are near new stations are likely to divert from another station, while riders who are further away are split between the new station and competing existing stations.  Delays to upstream passengers: Delays associated with the new station vary depending on the technology (electrified trains are faster than diesel trains – less stopping delay) and line speeds (more delay if new station is where trains would normally be travelling at high speed) for the train services that will serve the station location. Passengers on express services that do not stop at the new station are not delayed.  Time savings per rider: Primarily depends on: 1) boarding vs. alighting activity (all alighting activity egresses by walk/transit which will have a higher time savings); 2) access mode (auto/transit access minutes saved per trip will generally be low but walk access can be higher – default access assumption is based on adjacent station access mode splits); 3) origin/destination point (near or far from new station?); and 4) Existing rider vs. rider who is new to GO.  Alighting activity for stations near downtown core: Two approaches are used: 1) Benchmark (considers existing Exhibition station ridership as a benchmark and adjusts it by considering the number of trains serving the new station and jobs within 1km); 2) Sector-Based (involves dividing the station’s 1km catchment area into approximately 13 sectors with a separate ridership and time savings calculation for each sector). All downtown stations between Lansdowne/Dundas and Gerrard/Pape use the more detailed sector-based approach.  Fares: Assumes today’s transit fare structure.  Services through Union Station: Kitchener/Stouffville “through” service is included, which is important to the attractiveness of “destination” stations within downtown. Although many Kitchener and Stouffville trains are expected to go out of service after Union Station, a partial set of services will operate through Union. As an example, this would allow a passenger boarding at Agincourt to access a potential new station at Liberty Village.

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Appendix C: Land Value Uplift Analysis

Cushman & Wakefield Valuation & Advisory [C&W V&A] completed a mid-level analysis (neither order-of-magnitude nor fully detailed) of the potential for property value uplift within the 800-meter catchment areas surrounding the station. The analysis examined the potential impacts of a new station on the existing property tax assessment, as well as on the potential to generate new property tax assessment, in order to estimate potential property value uplift. The analysis does not generate a precise estimate of value uplift potential at each individual station, but rather can be used broadly to compare the relative potential for land value uplift at each station under consideration.

Approach

The following bullet points summarize the approach to determining the potential extent of existing assessed value uplift within the station’s catchment area:

 C&W V&A received data on total existing property tax assessment within the station’s catchment area from the Municipal Property Assessment Corporation.

 C&W V&A reviewed a prior study previously completed by C&W V&A on the impacts of higher-order transit on property values (across North America and worldwide). This analysis concluded that higher-order transit results in an average 18% increase in property values.

 Given the more established and mature nature of higher-order and other public transit systems within the City of Toronto, Vaughan, and the GTA (compared to other North American municipalities examined in the aforementioned study), C&W V&A’s preliminary opinion was that the establishment of RER will likely result in a maximum 12% property value uplift (a third less than the average from the aforementioned study). C&W V&A believe that property value uplifts of 10% could occur at some station locations, but not uplifts of 15%.

 The above-mentioned study identified the following causal factors in property value uplift:

o time travel savings (in this case to Union Station) o relative assessed values o economic/market development potential o extent/nature of developable vacant land o public urban renewal/revitalization plans o private master development plans o nature/extent of mobility hub plans o nature/size of land ownership o city/state regulatory environment

 C&W V&A assigned a weighting to each of the above factors, and then scored each station location and catchment area on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 indicating the least impact and 10 indicating the most impact.

 C&W V&A then correlated the overall score to the aforementioned maximum 12% existing property value uplift rate. Stations with lower scores were assigned lower percentages of existing property value uplift. Stations with higher scores were assigned higher percentages of existing property value uplift, to a maximum of 12% for a station that scored 10 out of 10.

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 The scores for each criterion were based upon empirical information where available. Empirical and/or geographic information was available on travel time savings to Union Station, relative assessed values, economic/market development potential, the extent/nature of developable land, and the nature/size of land ownership. Urban planning and market knowledge drove scoring on public urban renewal/revitalization plans, private master development plans, the nature/extent of mobility hub plans, and the city/state regulatory environment.

New development within the catchment area will also result in an increase in the assessed value base for each station’s catchment area. The following bullet points summarize the approach to determining this increase:

 Urban Strategies Inc. estimated the amount of development potential (gross floor area, units) that could theoretically occur within the catchment area, based upon a review of existing development applications and an estimation of development potential on “soft sites” with redevelopment opportunity.

 C&W V&A applied current order-of-magnitude property value benchmarks to each property type (asset class) to determine the magnitude of assessed value increase that might result before consideration of the potential value uplift impacts of RER. For example, if USI identified 9,290 sq. m of residential development potential within a catchment area, C&W V&A multiplied that density by a current residential condominium value benchmark; using this approach, the assumption of a $46.45-per-sq.-m condominium value would result in an assessed value increase of $50 million.

 Given that the establishment of RER will affect both existing and new property values, the resulting total potential assessed value resulting from new development was then multiplied by the property value uplift percentage (ranging from 0% to 12%), as determined during the previous analysis. This results in the potential increase in assessed value of future new development within the catchment area as a result of RER.

 Station catchment areas will likely not achieve full buildout in all asset classes; market demand will constrain development. Accordingly, C&W V&A reduced the total assessed value emanating from new development, to broadly reflect estimated market absorption between 2016 and 2031. For example, if USI identified 9,290 sq. m of residential development potential in a station’s catchment area, but C&W V&A broadly estimated demand of 4,645 sq. m, then only 4,645 sq. m was multiplied by the residential condominium value benchmark.

 Market demand estimates are based on historic and current demand trends. It is likely that RER service will, at some station locations, result in increased market demand. These market demand estimates and associated value uplift projections may therefore be somewhat conservative. Conversely, it is entirely possible that future demand, at some locations and for some land uses, may be less than historically experienced. More detailed analysis of the potential impacts of RER on market demand and value uplift can be completed as part of subsequent, more in-depth RER business case analyses.

The resulting increases in existing and potential future assessed values were then summed to determine the total potential land value uplift under two scenarios:

1. Full build-out by 2031 2. Market demand-based development by 2031

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The following table summarizes land value uplift scores by station, which were used to determine existing assessed value uplift.

Value Uplift Score Summary by Station (max. 10 score)

Bathurst Bloor St. Clair W. St. Clair W. Hwy Station Name… King West Lawrence Ellesmere Spadina Davenport (Barrie) (Kitchener) 7/Concord

Criterion % Weighting Travel Time Saving to Union Station 15.0% 8 5 6 7 6 7 3 3

Relative Assessed Values 25.0% 4 6 6 7 6 8 9 9 Economic / Market Development Potential 25.0% 9 10 7 1 1 1 1 1

Extent / Nature of Developable Vacant Land 15.0% 5 6 6 10 10 10 9 10 Public Urban Renewal / Revitalization Plans 2.5% 6 4 4 2 2 8 2 2

Private Master Development Plans 2.5% 8 4 6 2 3 7 3 2 Nature / Extent of Mobility Hub Plans 2.5% 1 1 10 1 1 10 1 1

Nature / Size of Land Ownership 10.0% 10 10 10 5 9 7 9 7 City / State Regulatory Environment 2.5% 3 3 3 3 3 7 3 3

Weighted Score 100.0% 6.7 6.9 6.7 5.4 5.3 6.3 5.4 5.4

The following table summarizes the overall score for each station and the resulting percentage uplift in existing assessed values.

Value Uplift Percentage Summary

Score Uplift in Existing # Station Name max. 10 Asessments Values

1 Bathurst/Spadina 6.7 9% 2A Liberty Village 6.9 9%

3 Bloor/Davenport* 4.4 6%

4 St. Clair West (Barrie Line) 5.4 7% 5 St. Clair West (Kitchener Line) 5.3 7% 6B Highway 7/Concord 6.3 8% 7 Lawrence 5.4 7% 8 Ellesmere 5.4 7% *score is discounted by 33% due to an existing GO Station within 800m

The following table summarizes the impacts of RER on assessed value based on maximum development potential, stated in $2016.

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Impacts of RER on Assessed Values Based Upon Maximum Development Potential ($2016)

2016 2031

Assessed Value of Assessed Value of Uplift In Assessed # Station Name Uplift In Existing Total Assessed New Development New Development Value of New Assessed Values Value Uplift (before uplift) (after uplift) Development

$ millions $ millions $ millions $ millions $ millions 1 Bathurst/Spadina $1,672 $8,731 $9,514 $783 $2,455 2A Liberty Village $722 $2,589 $2,829 $240 $962

3 Bloor/Davenport $215 $3,744 $3,965 $221 $436 4 St. Clair West (Barrie Line) $166 $581 $623 $41 $208 5 St. Clair West (Kitchener Line) $127 $1,126 $1,206 $80 $207 6B Highway 7/Concord $53 $4,543 $4,925 $382 $434 7 Lawrence $80 $5,564 $5,966 $402 $483 8 Ellesmere $84 $1,376 $1,474 $98 $182

The following table summarizes the impacts of RER on assessed values based on market demand, stated in $2016. It is the opinion of C&W V&A that a market demand-based analysis is much more realistic than a theoretically based build-out analysis.

Impacts of RER on Assessed Values Based Upon Market Demand ($2016) 2016 2031 Uplift In Assessed Assessed Uplift In Total Uplift in Existing # Station Name Existing Value of New Value of New Assessed Value Total Assessed Assessed Assessed Values Assessed Development Development of New Value Uplift Value Values (before uplift) (after uplift) Development $ millions % $ millions $ millions $ millions $ millions $ millions 1 Bathurst/Spadina $18,644 9% $1,672 $7,276 $7,928 $652 $2,324 2A Liberty Village $7,808 9% $722 $1,873 $2,046 $173 $895 3 Bloor/Davenport $3,644 6% $215 $1,105 $1,170 $65 $280 4 St. Clair West (Barrie Line) $2,330 7% $166 $471 $504 $34 $200 5 St. Clair West (Kitchener Line) $1,790 7% $127 $599 $642 $43 $170 6B Highway 7/Concord $628 8% $53 $659 $715 $55 $108 7 Lawrence $1,107 7% $80 $0 $0 $0 $80 8 Ellesmere $1,174 7% $84 $0 $0 $0 $84

Conclusions

The above analysis indicates that Spadina is likely to realize a very substantial amount of land value uplift through the implementation of RER. Substantial value uplift is also likely to occur at Liberty Village. Much more limited value uplift is likely to occur at Bloor-Davenport, St. Clair West (Barrie), St. Clair West (Kitchener), and Highway 7- Concord. Very limited value uplift is likely to occur at Lawrence East or at Ellesmere.

Assumptions and Limiting Conditions

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

All of the preceding analyses are high-level and primarily order-of-magnitude. The analyses are driven by a series of assumptions that are subject to interpretation. Even minor changes in assumptions can cumulatively cause substantial changes in results. Accordingly, this methodology does not result in a precise estimate of value uplift potential at each individual station. Rather, it estimates broad, relative differences in potential value uplift levels.

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Appendix D: Criteria Ranges

Business Major Criteria Not Supportive Neutral Supportive Case

Strategic Policy Alignment Does not support most policy Supports most policy Supports all policy

>150 P+J/ha (>30,000 P+J) Development Potential 50–150 P+J/ha Strategic < 50 P+J/ha (<10,000 P+J) OR 50-150 P+J/ha with high and Intensification (10,000-30,000 P+J) development potential Low Existing Demand Low Existing Demand Moderate Existing Demand Real Estate Strategic AND AND AND Market Demand Low Future Demand Moderate Future Demand Significant Future Demand Natural In a sensitive Within 800 m of a sensitive Outside of 800 m of Strategic Environment environmental feature environmental feature environmental feature

Operational < 1.5 km to nearest 1.5–3 km to nearest > 3km to nearest Strategic System existing station existing station existing station

Connectivity and < 0 Net new daily 0–3,000 net new daily > 3,000 net new daily Strategic Ridership Drivers GO boardings GO boardings GO boardings

Strategic Station Access 2/5 modes 3/5 modes 4/5 modes

Social Inclusivity Does not serve NIA Fully serves NIA Fully Serves NIA Strategic and Accessibility AND <3.5% Change in ATT OR >3.5% Change in ATT AND >3.5% Change in ATT Incremental Financial GO Ridership < 0 0 to 40 > 40 (Millions of Trips)

Financial Fare Revenue (A) < $0M $0m to $50M > $50M

Financial Total Costs (B) > $150M $150M to $50M < $50M

Financial Capital Costs > $75M $75M to $25M < $25M

Financial Operating Costs (C) > $35M $35M to $25M < $25M

Financial Net Present Value < –$50M –$50M to $50M > $50M

Revenue to Cost Financial < 0 (all-loss) 0 to 1 > 1 Ratio (A/B)

Operating Cost Financial < 0 (all-loss) 0 to 2 > 2 Recovery Ratio

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RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft

Business Major Criteria Not Supportive Neutral Supportive Case Travel Time Savings Economic (Millions of < 0 0 to 10 > 10 Person-Hours) Auto Distances Saved Economic < 0 0 to 250 > 250 (Millions of VKTs)

Economic Benefits < $0M $0M to $100M > $100M

Economic Costs > $125M $125M to $50M < $50M

Economic Net Present Value < –$150M –$150 to $10M > $10M

Economic Benefit-Cost Ratio < 0 (all-loss) 0 to 1 > 1

Transportation Economic < $0M $0M to $50M > $50M User Impacts

Economic Travel Time Savings < $0M $0M to $55M > $55M

Vehicle Operating Economic < $0M $0M to $75M > $75M Cost Savings

Decongestion on Economic < $0M $0M to $30M > $30M Road Network

Economic Safety Impacts < $0M $0M to $10M > $10M

Environmental Economic < $0M $0M to $1M > $1M Impacts Track geometry compatible with Track geometry compatible with Deliverability & Track geometry not Constructability station AND station AND Operations compatible with station Significant site constraints minimal site constraints Significant disruption to Minor to no construction noise, surrounding area during Construction noise and dust in Deliverability & Stakeholder dust, and street closure impacts construction including noise, high density area, possibility of Operations Impacts and minor to no environmental dust, traffic, or environmental environmental impacts impacts impacts No ability for station to grow due Limited ability for station to grow Deliverability & Room for Ability of growth with new track to track constraints and land due to track constraints and land Operations Growth layouts and land acquisition acquisition acquisition TPAP, normal permits, and two Deliverability & Approvals/Permits TPAP, normal permits, and one Only a TPAP and normal other unique permits or Operations Required unique permit or approval construction permits approvals Deliverability & Operating Major operating impacts Moderate operating impacts Minor operating impacts Operations Impacts

Deliverability & Other Key Risks Significant unique situation Minor unique situation No other key risks or impacts Operations and Impacts

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