RER New Stations Initial Business Case HIGHWAY 7-CONCORD HIGHWAY 7-CONCORD, YORK UNIVERSITY CLUSTER SCREENING Barrie Corridor July 2016 Draft Draft v1.2 Metrolinx Client ref: 150400 RER New Stations Initial Business Case HIGHWAY 7-CONCORD Highway 7-Concord, York University Cluster Screening Draft Prepared by: Prepared for: Urban Strategies Inc. Metrolinx 197 Spadina Avenue, Suite 600 97 Front Street West Toronto, ON Canada M5T 2C8 Toronto, ON M5J 1E6 RER New Stations Initial Business Case June 2016 Note to the reader: The Initial Business Case (IBC) represents a primary input into the evaluation and recommendation of New Stations. Final recommendation of new station site selection considers, in addition to the four cases of the IBC, network fit, and other strategic considerations including priorities of the various levels of government. Network fit addresses system-wide issues and impact on the overall performance of the rail corridor. IBC results do not represent the final recommendations of the GO RER New Stations Evaluation process. IBC results inform the process outlined in the GO RER New Stations Summary and Ranking Report, which is to be posted in the near future. For more information visit: http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regionalplanning/newstations/ The final list of recommended stations is included in the June 28, 2016 GO Regional Express Rail Update report to Metrolinx Board of Directors. 97 Front Street West 97, rue Front Ouest Toronto, Ontario M5J 1E6 Toronto (Ontario) M5J 1E6 RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft Executive Summary This Initial Business Case (IBC) examines a cluster of two station locations (one potential, one existing) along the GO Barrie corridor: York University (existing) and Highway 7-Concord (potential). An initial cluster screening was used to determine which station would be carried forward for a more detailed IBC assessment. The cluster screening concludes that the existing York University station is not supported by municipal land-use policy, and currently underperforms given its poor visibility, low-density industrial surroundings, lack of connections to other transit, and very limited potential for facility expansion. By comparison, Highway 7-Concord would be located in an area planned for significant intensification, aligning strongly with regional and local policy and forming part of a planned future Concord GO Mobility Hub. Highway 7-Concord’s key differentiating strengths include its ability to serve a planned high-density mixed-use catchment area, direct municipal and regional policy support for a new station at the site, and its potential to connect directly to other planned transportation networks at a key inter-modal transfer point. Highway 7-Concord’s much stronger strategic and deliverability/operational performance warrants that it be carried forward for more detailed IBC evaluation. A new station at Highway 7-Concord would be located in the City of Vaughan in York Region, immediately south of Highway 7 at a site designated for a future GO station in the York Regional Official Plan. The station would be built on mostly vacant land and would be designed to avoid negative impacts on adjacent natural features (a woodlot and a branch of the West Don River). The station’s conceptual design integrates with a larger multi-modal transit hub in order to provide direct connections to planned vivaNext and 407 Transitway BRT services. Key findings of this IBC for Highway 7-Concord include: Strategic Case: The station strongly aligns with current provincial, local, transportation, and land-use policy. It would improve access to a future mobility hub that is planned to accommodate high residential and employment densities, and it would connect to planned rapid-transit investments along Highway 7 (vivaNext BRT) and Highway 407 (407 Transitway BRT), thereby significantly improving transit service in a lower-income area of York Region. However, the station would result in a net loss of approximately 2,900 daily riders on the Barrie GO line as passengers are deterred by the travel time delays associated with stopping at the new station. Financial Case: The construction and operation of a new station at Highway 7-Concord may result in a negative net present value (NPV) of –$333.7 million over a 60-year time horizon. This NPV combines high capital expenditures and recurring station and train operating costs, combined estimated at $159.7 million, with a projected loss in fare revenue of $174 million resulting from lost ridership. Economic Case: The new station may result in a loss of riders to the GO network, significant travel time delays, and a net transportation mode shift toward personal automobiles (with accompanying environmental, safety, and broader societal costs). The result is total transportation user and environmental costs amounting to a net loss of $1,396 million over the station’s 60-year evaluation period. Deliverability and Operations Case: While the station’s construction will involve a low degree of complexity, private property acquisitions will be necessary and possible impacts to environmental features may need to be mitigated. The station’s relatively unconstrained context offers good potential for facility expansion and express train operation. RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft The assessment of Highway 7-Concord’s potential concludes that while the station performs well in the Deliverability & Operations Case, its Strategic Case performance is marginal, and its Financial and Economic Case performances are poor. While benefiting from strong policy alignment, interconnectivity with other planned higher- order transit, and ease of construction, Highway 7-Concord would result in a negative net present value and significant broader societal costs arising from increased automobile use. A table summarizing key metrics from each of the four cases follows. A legend is contained in Appendix D. Table ES-1: Results of Initial Business Case Analysis for Highway 7-Concord Criterion Summary Policy Alignment Supportive Development Potential and Intensification Neutral Real Estate Market Demand Neutral Natural Environment Neutral Operational System Supportive Connectivity and Ridership Drivers Not Supportive Strategic Case Station Access Supportive Social Inclusivity and Accessibility Supportive Incremental GO Ridership (Millions of Trips) –103.4 Fare Revenue (A) –$174 Total Costs (B) $154.6 Capital Costs $132.7 Operating Costs (C) $21.9 Net Present Value (A-B) –$328.6 Financial Case Revenue to Cost Ratio (A/B) all-loss Operating Cost Recovery Ratio (A/C) all-loss Travel Time Savings (Millions of Person-Hours) –79.4 Auto Distances Saved (Millions of VKTs) –2,731 Benefits –$1,253 Costs $124.1 Net Present Value –$1,377 Benefit-Cost Ratio all-loss Transportation User Impacts –$1,246 Travel Time Savings –$544 Economic Case Vehicle Operating Cost Savings –$487.8 Decongestion on Road Network –$162.3 Safety Impacts –$51.9 Environmental Impacts –$6.5 Constructability Supportive Stakeholder Impacts Neutral Room for Growth Supportive Approvals/Permits Required Supportive Operating Impacts Supportive Deliverability & Operations Case Other Key Risks and Impacts Neutral (Impacts over a 60-year period. Millions of 2015 $ Present Value, unless otherwise noted) RER New Stations Initial Business Case: Highway 7-Concord – draft Table of Contents Executive Summary page 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background .......................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Report Scope and Purpose ................................................................................................................. 1 1.3 Site Options and Scenarios Analyzed ................................................................................................. 2 2. Cluster Screening ........................................................................................................................ 5 2.1 Methodology ........................................................................................................................................ 5 2.2 Station Option A: York University ........................................................................................................ 5 2.2.1 Station Location ...................................................................................................................... 5 2.2.2 Current Land Uses in Area ..................................................................................................... 6 2.2.3 Surrounding Transportation Infrastructure ............................................................................. 6 2.2.4 Strategic .................................................................................................................................. 9 2.2.5 Financial ............................................................................................................................... 11 2.2.6 Economic .............................................................................................................................. 11 2.2.7 Deliverability and Operations ................................................................................................ 12 2.3 Station Option B: Highway 7-Concord ..............................................................................................