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World Economic Situation and Prospects Monthly Briefing

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World Economic Situation and Prospects Monthly Briefing Development Policy and Analysis Division w Department of Economic and Social Affairs World Economic Situation and Prospects Monthly Briefing No. 68 July 2014 Global issues Summary World trade still sluggish in the first months of the year World trade continues sluggish recovery Despite expectations for a return to previous growth rates this year, world trade has grown relatively slowly for the first months of 2014. Oil prices soar amid political instability in Iraq Prior to the crisis, world trade grew at about double the growth Disappointing first quarter for developed economies rate of world gross product (WGP), but in the past two years trade growth has slowed to just barely matching the growth of WGP. The hope was that a rise in economic activity in developed coun- The sluggishness appears to be relatively broad based with de- tries, which still account for a major portion of world trade and are clines in developed and developing regions, particularly among ma- important trading partners for many developing countries, would jor importers and exporters. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, exports provide the necessary impetus to boost world trade. However, as were down in North America and flat in Europe, while imports several developed economies, and the United States of America in were down in both of those regions. World trade volume growth particular, had a disappointing first quarter, there has been limited has declined in the first quarter in the past four years, but it has de- expansion in world trade. Statistics from the Netherlands Bureau clined more rapidly in the first quarter of 2014. In each of the previ- for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) point to a decline of world ous three years, trade volume growth rebounded and ended positive trade growth in February and March (figure 1). There has been for the year; it appears that may be the case this year as well as there some rebound in April, but that still makes growth for the year are some indications of a possible rebound in the second quarter, only slightly positive. with United States imports up in April. Trade in commercial servic- Statistics for merchandise trade for the first quarter of 2014, es statistics are somewhat more delayed, but they point to a decline produced jointly by the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the in the last quarter of 2013, particularly in services imports to Asia. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNC- Oil prices rise amid Iraq’s political instability TAD), corroborate this trend to some degree. The UNCTAD/ WTO estimates for March and April are reversed from those of the Against the backdrop of political and military tensions in Iraq, oil CPB, with a significant rise in March and a fall in April. Trade sta- prices have been on the rise, as investors worried about supply dis- tistics are notoriously volatile and have had frequent revisions, but ruptions. On 20 June 2014, the Brent oil price reached $114.72, a the overall trend is the same for both months’ estimates with little new nine-month record (figure 2). United States crude oil also trad- growth for the year so far. ed above $107 per barrel on the same day, the highest price during Figure 1 Figure 2 World trade growth Brent oil price from June 2013 to June 2014 Index: January 2013 = 100 United States dollars per barrel 104 118 World trade 103 116 102 114 112 101 110 100 108 99 106 98 104 97 102 96 100 2013m01 2013m02 2013m03 2013m04 2013m05 2013m06 2013m07 2013m08 2013m09 2013m10 2013m11 2013m12 2014m01 2014m02 2014m03 2014m04 28/06/2013 28/07/2013 28/08/2013 28/09/2013 28/10/2013 28/11/2013 28/12/2013 28/01/2014 28/02/2014 31/03/2014 30/04/2014 31/05/2014 30/06/2014 Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. Source: Energy Information Administration. Prepared by the Global Economic Monitoring Unit: Pingfan Hong (Chief), Sergio P. Vieira (Coordinator), Clive Altshuler, Grigor Agabekian, Hung-Yi Li, Matthias Kempf, Ingo Pitterle, John Winkel and Sebastian Vergara, supported by Mary Lee Kortes, Nancy Settecasi, Leah C. Kennedy, Cordelia Gow, and Ann D’lima. Contact email: [email protected], http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml the same nine-month period. Since then oil prices have softened, Developed Asia: Japanese Government releases revised Japan but are still higher by more than 3 per cent this year. The main Revitalization Strategy question remains whether this is a temporary pause while investors On 24 June, the Government of Japan released the revision of the assess the reality in Iraq or if prices will continue to decline, as Japan Revitalization Strategy, the third arrow for “Abenomics”. originally expected in our previous forecast (see World Economic Foremost, this revised package seeks to enhance corporate gover- Situation and Prospects: Update as of mid-2014). nance and to reform the corporate tax system with the intention of On the one hand, there are serious risks of major export dis- regaining international competitiveness. It will also seek to increase ruptions, with longer-term implications for global supply and oil labour mobility, participation of women in the labour market, and prices. Before the conflict, Iraq was producing more than three mil- the integration of foreign workers. Reforms of the agricultural sec- lion barrels per day (bpd), becoming a major pillar of global supply, tor, as well as the health-care industry and its provision framework ranking just behind Saudi Arabia, the largest exporter in the region. are also included in the package. So far, only a small portion of Iraq’s oil output has been threatened, The increase of the consumption tax rate from 5 per cent to as conflicts have been taking place in northern parts of the country 8 per cent on 1 April 2014 may have had different effects, accord- ing to recently released economic indicators. The nominal value of where production is lower. But if the turmoil escalates and spreads retail sales plunged by 13.6 per cent in April, but bounced back by towards the southern regions of the country, home to more than 4.6 per cent in May, even though it remained lower than the level in three-quarters of the Iraq’s total crude output, major export disrup- May 2013. Industrial production only increased by 0.5 per cent in tions can be expected. On the other hand, even considering further May 2014, after declining by 2.8 per cent in April. The headline in- disruptions in oil exports from Iraq, other Organization of Petro- flation rate for both Japan and Tokyo-area remained at an elevated leum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members could compensate by level due to the higher tax rate. On a positive note, the employment boosting their own production. Saudi Arabian officials pledged to level for May fully recovered the April loss and was about 0.9 per respond to any shortage, as the country can sustain supply at 12.5 cent higher than one year ago. million bpd. In addition, the United States Government has start- Western Europe: growth dips in the first quarter of the year ed to relax a ban on United States oil exports, which could also help avoid shortages in global supply and reverse the recent trend In the euro area, gross domestic product (GDP) growth decelerated of rising oil prices. As of 25 June, the Brent oil price had already to 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2014, after 0.3 per cent growth fallen, following the decision by the United States Government to in the fourth quarter of 2013. Growth was supported by domestic permit exports of lightly refined oil, although United States crude demand, evenly distributed across demand components, but was hit oil price increased concomitantly. It is therefore still unclear if the by a slight deceleration in investment and a sharp slowdown in ex- ports. Net exports detracted from growth as imports were boosted global economy will face an oil price shock this year, but the risk is by the strength of the euro. There was considerable heterogeneity considerably higher than it was a few months ago. across countries in growth during the first quarter of 2014. In Ger- many, growth accelerated from 0.4 per cent in the fourth quarter Developed economies of 2013 to 0.8 per cent. The United Kingdom of Great Britain and The United States: first quarter worse than anticipated Northern Ireland also grew by 0.8 per cent. Spain continued to rebound, growing by 0.4 per cent in the first quarter. However, According to the final estimate from the Bureau of Economic Anal- in France there was no growth, Italy’s GDP contracted by 0.1 per ysis, economic output of the United States declined at the annual- cent, and GDP fell in Portugal by 0.7 per cent. The Netherlands ized rate of 2.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2014 from the previous registered the worst performance, with GDP contracting by 1.4 per quarter. This was the worst performance since the first quarter of cent. Some of this divergence can be attributed to the mild winter, 2009. More than half of the decline can be attributed to the rapid as demand for energy-related products sharply decreased, having a deceleration of gross investment and private consumption, both of significant negative impact in the Netherlands. Conversely, the bet- which were affected by the severe winter weather conditions. Inven- ter than usual weather conditions helped the construction sector, tory build-ups decelerated significantly after rapid accumulation in boosting growth in Germany and Spain.
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