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Preliminary Overview of the Economies Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2013 Preliminary OverviewoftheEconomies 2013 of LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean Alicia Bárcena Executive Secretary Antonio Prado Deputy Executive Secretary Juan Alberto Fuentes Chief Economic Development Division Ricardo Pérez Chief Publications and Web Services Division The Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean is an annual publication prepared by the Economic Development Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). This 2013 edition was prepared under the supervision of Juan Alberto Fuentes, Chief of the Division, while Jürgen Weller, Senior Officer for Economic Affairs in the same Division, was responsible for the overall coordination. In the preparation of this edition, the Economic Development Division was assisted by the Statistics Division, the ECLAC subregional headquarters in Mexico City and Port of Spain, and the Commission’s country offices in Bogota, Brasilia, Buenos Aires, Montevideo and Washington, D.C. The regional analyses were prepared by Juan Alberto Fuentes with input from the following experts: Luis Felipe Jiménez, Alexander Loschky, Cameron Daneshvar and Guillermo Fuentes (external sector), Ricardo Martner, Michael Hanni and Ivonne González (fiscal policy), Ramón Pineda, Rodrigo Cárcamo, Yusuke Tateno and Alejandra Acevedo (monetary, exchange-rate and macroprudential policies), Sandra Manuelito and Seung-jin Baek (activity and prices) and Jürgen Weller (employment and wages). The economic projections were produced by Sandra Manuelito, Alexander Loschky and Claudio Aravena with input from the national offices and subregional headquarters. Jazmín Chiu, Giannina López and Carolina Serpell were responsible for the processing and presentation of the statistical data and graphical presentations. The country notes are based on studies conducted by the following experts: Olga Lucía Acosta, Dillon Alleyne, Rodrigo Cárcamo, Cameron Daneshvar, Maria Kristina Eisele, Guillermo Fuentes, Stefanie Garry, Randolph Gilbert, Michael Hanni, Michael Hendrickson, Juan Pablo Jiménez, Luis Felipe Jiménez, Osvaldo Kacef, Alexander Loschky, Sandra Manuelito, Rodolfo Minzer, Carlos Mussi, María Odriozola, Ramón Padilla, Machel Pantin, Renata Pardo, Willard Phillips, Indira Romero, Sebastián Valdecantos, Daniel Vega, Francisco Villarreal, Kohei Yoshida and Willy Zapata. The country notes are available on line at www.eclac.org. The cut-off date for the information presented in this publication was 29 November 2013. Note: The following symbols have been used in the tables shown in the Preliminary Overview: - Three dots (…) indicate that data are not available or are not separately reported. - A dash (-) indicates that the amount is nil or negligible. - A full stop (.) is used to indicate decimals. - The word “dollars” refers to United States dollars unless otherwise specified. United Nations publication ISBN: 978-92-1-121839-8 • ISSN printed version: 1014-7810 E-ISBN: 978-92-1-056243-0 LC/G.2581-P • Sales No.: E.14.II.G.2 Copyright © United Nations, February 2014. All rights reserved Printed in Santiago, Chile • 2013-1098 Applications for the right to reproduce this work, either in whole or in part, should be sent to the Secretary of the Publications Board, United Nations Headquarters, New York, N.Y. 10017, United States. Member States and their governmental institutions may reproduce this work without prior authorization, but are requested to mention the source and inform the United Nations of such reproduction. Contents Executive summary ................................................................................................................................................7 Chapter I The international context .....................................................................................................................................13 Chapter II Economic activity .................................................................................................................................................15 Growth remained low in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2013 .................................................................15 As in previous years, domestic demand boosted growth ..................................................................................16 Commerce, construction and financial and business services were more buoyant ...........................................17 Chapter III Employment and wages ........................................................................................................................................19 Job creation slowed .........................................................................................................................................19 Youth unemployment has risen ........................................................................................................................21 With employment growth slowing, so did growth in the wage bill, which cooled private consumption...............22 Chapter IV The external sector...............................................................................................................................................25 Deterioration of the balance-of-payments current account ...............................................................................25 Slight deterioration in the terms of trade ...........................................................................................................26 The current account deteriorated owing to a narrower goods trade surplus and a slightly wider deficit on the services balance .........................................................................................................................27 The deficit on the income balance widened while the current transfers surplus shrank slightly ........................29 International financial volatility prompted a change in the composition of the financial account in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2013 ......................................................................................30 The deterioration in the external sector led to lower growth in gross national disposable income, making investment financing increasingly reliant on external savings ..............................................................34 Chapter V Policies .................................................................................................................................................................37 Countries have altered their fiscal targets in response to economic cooling, with a shift towards slightly countercyclical policies ...................................................................................................................................37 Spending continued to rise in most of the countries of the region .....................................................................41 Fiscal revenues in the region benefited from recent tax reforms and rising income from hydrocarbons ................ 43 Monetary policy has been directed towards sustaining domestic demand and offsetting international financial volatility ........................................................................................................................44 Differences in monetary policy reflected in different inflation trajectories ........................................................46 Exchange-rate volatility sharpened ...................................................................................................................48 The build-up of international reserves came to a halt .......................................................................................50 A range of macroprudential policies were adopted in the region ......................................................................50 Chapter VI Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................53 Statistical annex ...................................................................................................................................................57 ECLAC Publications ..............................................................................................................................................89 Tables Table 1 Total gross domestic product, variation rates ..............................................................................8 Table III.1 Latin America and the Caribbean (selected countries): simple employment-output elasticity and wage employment-output elasticity, 2012 and 2013 ...........................................19 Table III.2 Latin America and the Caribbean (selected countries): variation in the youth and adult participation, employment and unemployment rates, average for the first to third quarters of 2013 compared with the same period of the previous year ............................21 Contents 3 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Table III.3 New labour policies, 2013 .......................................................................................................23 Table IV.1 Latin America (17 countries): components of the balance of payments .....................................31 Table IV.2 Latin America (17 countries): components of the financial account ..........................................32
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