BRITAIN’S RED/BLUE DIVIDE Unlike a geographic constituency map, this schematic map of the Electoral faultlines across Britain 2010 election results gives each constituency equal area. e battleplans are being drawn. As party conference season draws to a close, the SCOTS CHOOSE AGAIN shape of the 2015 general election is becoming clear. Labour and the Tories, harried AFTER THE REFERENDUM by the insurgent forces of Ukip and the newly confident Scottish nationalists, are reinforcing their heartlands, and likely to achieve only narrow victories outside their traditional territory. e beleaguered Lib Dems are hunkering down, intent on limiting the casualties among their sitting MPs. Britain is separating along political lines - the Tories holding fast in the south outside London, Labour dominating the north, our electoral future shaped by furious skirmishes in a limited number of crucial battlegrounds. Toby Helm surveys the scene and selects examples of the type of seats that will be critical. Graphic by Pete Guest EDINBURGH BAR CHARTS SHOW 2010 SHARE OF VOTE e referendum has thrown everything in the air as far as KEY: Scotland’s 59 Westminster seats are concerned. If Scottish MPs are to be downgraded to second-class citizens in Westminster, how will that affect how Scots vote? Polls suggest Labour has lost a mass of support, and could cede ConservativeLabour Lib Dem SNP Ukip BNP Green Independent 20 of its 41 seats to the SNP. e Lib Dems, who currently have 11, are likely to suffer for being in government with the Tories. e SNP will need to make huge gains to win seats from Labour but seem confident in Glasgow and the central belt. Tories are hopeful that they can win seats from Lib STRUGGLE IN THE NORTH Dems such as Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine. THE TORY CHALLENGE SCOTLAND Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine 38.4 30.3 15.7 13.6 THE UKIP FRINGE LONDON SPLIT FARAGE PLOTS HIS ENTRY THE FIGHT FOR THE CAPITAL MANCHESTER TOWN HALL Lib Dems could lose to Tories or SNP Tories need to make big gains in the north to win a Commons majority but face an uphill struggle. Large swaths of the Glasgow East urban north are Tory-free, especially after five years of 61.6 austerity. eir task will be harder as disgruntled Lib Dems are more likely to switch to Labour. en there is Ukip. Will they split the centre-right vote, or take support from Labour, 24.7 or both? In Tory-held constituencies such as Pudsey, they 5.0 4.5 could lose if Lib Dems return to Labour. A similar trend could 2.1 undermine efforts to win Tory targets such as Bolton West. Labour could lose to SNP, if there In Berwick-upon-Tweed the Tories could make a gain if the is a huge move towards them Lib Dem vote collapses. CLACTON-ON-SEA THE CITY OF LONDON Ukip’s rise has made the election, and results in dozens of Conservatives underperformed in the capital in 2010 and seats, unpredictable. If it wins two imminent byelections want to use their record on the economy – and the caused by Tory defections (Clacton, and Rochester and commitment by Labour and the Lib Dems to a mansion tax – Strood), it will go into campaign on a roll and, probably, as to seduce voters, particularly in wealthier areas and suburbs. third biggest party in the polls. In dozens of seats it could Labour did well in the May local elections, and believes it can disturb the plans of Tories, Labour and Lib Dems, and take seats from Lib Dems, and perhaps even the odd one, MIDLAND MARGINALS NORTH- undermine pundits’ predictions. It is confident of winning like Enfield North, from the Tories. e Lib Dems look EAST some seats outright, such as Tory-held anet South, vulnerable to Labour in seats like Brent Central, where Sarah THE KEY BATTLEGROUND where Farage is standing. Ukip also hopes to add Boston and Teather is stepping down, and Hornsey and Wood Green. Skegness where it polled 9.5% and the BNP secured 5.3% in Tories hope to win Labour-held seats like Tooting and 2010, from the Tories. It could threaten Labour in seats like Hammersmith. ere are 73 Westminster seats in Greater Pudsey Great Grimsby, where it polled 6.2%. London: 38 Labour, 28 Tory, 7 Lib Dem. NORTH- 38.5 35.1 WEST 20.8 Great Grimsby Enfield North 2.5 42.3 32.7 30.5 38.5 Slim Tory majority of 1,659. 22.4 Could go to Labour if Lib Dems 6.2 4.6 12.2 Bolton West move to them 2.5 2.1 38.5 38.3 Ukip threatens Labour’s tiny majority of 714 Labour hopes to win from Tories YORKS 17.2 & 4.0 GAS STREET CANAL, BIRMINGHAM HUMBER Tiny Labour majority of 92. Many believe the Midlands is where the election will be e Ukip effect and Lib Dem decided. It has 39 marginals – most close Tory versus Labour deserters could help Labour hold on seats. Here both believe the argument will be all about the Nuneaton LONDON economy. Tories are hopeful that in more prosperous areas 41.5 36.9 the recovery will boost their vote. Labour thinks its message about falling real wages and living standards will resonate. 15.3 Brent Central Tories are eyeing seats like Labour-held marginal Birmingham 6.3 44.2 41.2 Northfield and Walsall North where the Conservatives came Birmingham Northfield close second. But Ukip and the BNP had a strong presence in 40.3 Labour could topple Tory majority of 33.6 11.2 2010, and could complicate the picture. Labour is hoping to 2,069 with help of returning Lib Dems 15.7 1.5 take Tory-held marginals like Nuneaton and Cannock Chase, if 5.5 3.3 Lib Dems deserters switch to them. EAST Labour may gain at expense of Lib Dems Tories could do well on economic growth, MIDLANDS if Ukip and BNP don’t split the vote Norwich South 29.4 28.7 22.9 14.9 CHALLENGE IN THE WEST WEST THE ELUSIVE SOUTH-EAST WALES MIDLANDS LIB DEMS AT BAY Labour could overturn LABOUR’S SOUTHERN DISCOMFORT Lib Dem majority of 310 EAST OF ENGLAND Hastings and Rye 41.1 37.1 15.7 2.8 Labour could gain from Tories SOUTH-WEST SOUTH-EAST ST IVES, CORNWALL NORWICH Tories need to make strong gains against Lib Dems to make As with the Tories in the north, Labour needs to break up for a likely lack of a breakthrough in the north. But Lib Dem through in the south to win a decent majority. But it does not resilience, the rise of Ukip, and Labour tactical voting could feel like 1997, when Tony Blair swept Tory strongholds. mean successes are limited. Tories look well placed to topple Labour is eyeing seats like Lib-Dem held Norwich South, Lib Dems in seats like Mid Dorset and North Poole, where where it was second in 2010, and has a strong base. It Labour was distant third in 2010. Lib Dems are masters at St Ives anet South believes it could win in outposts like Hastings and Rye, where digging in, and hope strong local organisation in seats 42.7 Mid Dorset and Poole 39.0 48.0 it lost out narrowly, if Lib Dem voters come back to the fold. like St Ives, together with help of Labour supporters 45.1 44.5 Cameron’s plans for tax cuts are designed to appeal where 31.4 who may hold their noses and cross the Lib Dem box to keep Ed Miliband’s centre-left message may have less resonance. 8.2 a Tory out, could see off challenges. Ukip’s presence may also 5.6 2.6 15.1 e Conservatives could make gains in Lib Dem seats like 5.9 depress the Conservative tally. 4.5 5.5 Eastbourne and Portsmouth South. Tactical voting by Labour supporters could could help Lib Dems defend majority of 1,719 Tories could topple Lib Dems’ tiny majority of 269 Nigel Farage is standing and threatens Tory majority of 7,617.