Banks: Forecast of 2021 Q2 Results
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Podmiot z Grupy mBank - Służbowe do użytku zewnętrznego | mBank Group entity - Business for external use Tuesday, 20 July 2021 | special comments Banks: Forecast of 2021 Q2 Results Banks, CEE Analysts: Michał Konarski +48 22 438 24 05, Mikołaj Lemańczyk +48 22 438 24 07 We are expecting a strong 2021 Q2 reporting season from 2021 Q2 earnings calendar of rated lenders the CEE banks in our coverage. company reporting on For Polish lenders, we anticipate that F&C income in Alior Bank 4 August particular will register robust growth at a rate of 19% q/q BNP Paribas Bank Polska 12 August and +1% y/y, combined with exceptionally low Bank Handlowy 20 August provisioning. Net interest income will show the first signs ING BSK 6 August of a recovery, although on aggregate the NII for the year to 30 June 2021 will probably fulfill only 48% of our full- Bank Millennium 26 July year forecast. Bank Pekao 4 August Quarterly costs are expected to post a 22% increase PKO BP 12 August relative to Q2 2020, driven by normalization of payroll and Santander Bank Polska 28 July capital expenses. Erste Group 30 July The combined quarterly risk reserves associated with Raiffeisen Bank International 30 July Swiss franc exposures are projected at PLN 1.2bn, almost Komercni Banka 3 August three times the amount posted in the same period last Moneta Money Bank 29 July year and an increase of 40% from the first quarter. OTP Bank 12 August These charges notwithstanding, we anticipate that Polish Source: Banks, mBank banks will fulfill 56% of our FY2021 full-year net profit forecast in the first half of the year – a big success Polish lenders see little deterioration in loan books considering the annual regulatory charges that weigh on profits every first quarter, and a sign potentially of further Polish banks had a bumper quarter revenue-wise in Q2 2021, room for upward forecast revisions. and, equally importantly, they were spared big write-offs in the period. The number of corporate and personal Case by case, we believe the biggest positive surprise in insolvencies made official in the second quarter reached Q2 2021 will be provided by Alior Bank, fulfilling a record numbers, but this has not entailed a deterioration in projected 90% of our FY forecast in H1 thanks in part to loan repayments over the past year, suggesting that the relatively low risk reserves. At Pekao (56% of FY forecast failing companies are mostly small businesses with low in H1), we expect to see strong growth in core income, and leverage. at PKO BP (55% of FY forecast in H1) we see net profit as coming close to an all-time high. According to data by the National Bank of Poland, in May 2021 the average NPL ratio for the bank sector was 6.2%, less On the other hand, Bank Handlowy will most likely report than in May 2020, a low figure even if we take into account further contraction in net interest income after extensive that lenders had recently gone back to selling off their NPL profit-taking on the trading book in the first quarter. portfolios to debt collectors. Summing up, the Polish financial sector will deliver very Based on this, we estimate that the aggregate cost of risk good second-quarter results ahead of the current recognized by our coverage universe in Q2 2021 was 62bp, expectations of the market, with the possibility taking and we are anticipating the lowest CoR values from shape of interest rate increases in a not so distant future. Handlowy (23bp), ING BSK (30bp), and Millennium (30bp). However the reaction of investors might be muted as the sector waits for the Supreme Court to finally hand down At the other end of the scale is Alior Bank with expected Q2 a decision on how to proceed with franc loan court cases. CoR of 168bp – a high value that is nevertheless relatively low for this particular bank. Outside of Poland, low risk costs are set to be the highlight of the 2021 Q2 reporting season, and in case of Our current full-year forecasts look conservative if we Austrian banks a rebounding interest income will also extrapolate the first-half CoR levels to the second half of the come into the spotlight. year, however we believe default rates on Polish loan books might worsen in the coming months. Interestingly, neither lenders in Austria, nor their Czech counterparts, seem to be experiencing a run-up in costs Aggregate risk cost of our Polish bank coverage at the same rapid rate as banks in Poland. universe 1,6 Our top picks to watch this reporting season are Komercni Banka along with Erste Group, set to fulfill 53% 1,4 and 64%, respectively, of our FY2021 full-year forecasts in the year through June, while their outlook for the second 1,2 half of the year has just brightened with the interest rate hikes introduced in the Czech Republic and Hungary. 1,0 At RBI, reserves against Polish franc exposures will 0,8 probably continue to weigh on profits throughout the rest of 2021. 0,6 trailing CoR annualized CoR 0,4 Source: mBank Informacje podmiotu z Grupy mBank - objęte ochroną | mBank Group's entity information - protected Podmiot z Grupy mBank - Służbowe do użytku zewnętrznego | mBank Group entity - Business for external use 2021 Q2 cost of risk estimates for rated banks (basis ▪ Additional charges brought about by franc loan disputes points) will most likely continue to weigh on BNP's profits 180 throughout the rest of the year unless the bank finally opts 160 to shed the deadweight by launching a voluntary 140 settlements program for its borrower. 120 Forecast of 2021 Q2 results of BNP Paribas Bank Polska 100 (PLN m) 2Q’21E 1Q'21 q/q y/y YTD* 168 80 net interest income 758 733 2% -2% 50% 60 F&C income 255 247 3% 27% 50% 40 88 60 total income 1,252 1,222 3% 1% 49% 20 23 30 30 39 operating expenses 481 567 -15% 0% 36% 0 provisioning -85 -60 41% -58% 32% CHF provisioning -187 -72 160% 1124% 47% Source: mBank net profit 131 164 -19% -39% 48% Source: mBank* YTD result as a pct. of our full-year forecast Alior Bank Bank Handlowy ▪ Alior will report its 2021 second-quarter results on 4 August 2021. ▪ Handlowy will report its 2021 second-quarter results on 20 August 2021. ▪ We expect net profit to come in at PLN 114.7m after a 6% increase from the first quarter. ▪ We expect net profit to come in at PLN 73.5m after falling 8% from the first quarter and decreasing 18% year on year. ▪ Net interest income will most likely be a bit lower than in Q2 2020, but F&C income is expected to rise on a growing ▪ Handlowy took profits on a major part of its trading book portfolio of non-mortgage retail loans. in Q1 2021, and the pared-down portfolio of interest- earning assets has cut into margins and trading income. ▪ Cost of risk is likely to increase to 168bp in Q2 2021 from 157b the quarter before, but it will remain well below the ▪ Net interest income is one example of this, with 2021 Q2 NII Bank’s own guidance of <2.2%. expected to show a 22% fall. ▪ All in all, we expect a positive second-quarter showing ▪ F&C income as well will likely post a 13% decline from the from Alior that could prompt upward revisions to the previous quarter, when there were positive one-time FY2021 earnings expectations of analysts. boosts, in spite of increased customer activity. Prop trading is set to deliver strong profits from FX deals in Q2. Forecast of 2021 Q2 results of Alior Bank (PLN m) 2Q’21E 1Q'21 q/q y/y YTD* ▪ Without the annual contribution into deposit guarantee and resolution funds paid in Q1, thanks to reduced payroll net interest income 681 670 2% -6% 49% expenses, costs in Q2 2021 are likely to post a 22% decrease F&C income 181 178 2% 17% 52% from the previous quarter. total income 922 914 1% 1% 49% ▪ Cost of risk will remain at a low 23bp in Q2, with operating expenses 384 418 -8% -3% 47% provisioning not likely to exceed PLN 11m. provisioning -263 -244 8% -73% 36% ▪ Summing up, Handlowy is poised to report low interest net profit 115 108 6% n.m 90% income for the foreseeable future until it builds back its Source: mBank* YTD result as a pct. of our full-year forecast trading portfolio – a challenge amid today’s low yields. Forecast of 2021 Q2 results of Bank Handlowy 2Q’21 BNP Paribas Bank Polska (PLN m) 2Q’21E 1Q'21 q/q y/y YTD* ▪ BNP Paribas Bank Polska (“BNP”) will report its 2021 net interest income 154 197 -22% -42% 39% second-quarter results on 12 August 2021. F&C income 150 172 -13% 21% 54% ▪ We expect net profit to come in at PLN 131m after falling total income 433 940 -54% -25% 57% 20% from the previous quarter and a 40% drop from the operating expenses 283 362 -22% -5% -53% same period in 2020, a contraction led by increased provisions for legal risk associated with franc- provisioning 11 6 79% -90% -13% denominated mortgage loans, estimated at PLN 186.5m. net profit 74 395 -81% -18% 64% ▪ Provisioning aside, BNP most likely registered growth Source: mBank* YTD result as a pct.