Modeling and Simulation of Anti-Sclerostin Therapy for the Treatment of Osteoporosis
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MODELING AND SIMULATION OF ANTI-SCLEROSTIN THERAPY FOR THE TREATMENT OF OSTEOPOROSIS TANG CHENG CAI (B.Sc. (Hons), NUS) A THESIS SUBMITTED FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY DEPARTMENT OF PHARMACY NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE 2016 DECLARATION I hereby declare that the thesis is my original work and it has been written by me in its entirety. I have duly acknowledged all the sources of information that have been used in the thesis This thesis has also not been submitted for any degree in any university previously. Tang Cheng Cai May 2016 I Acknowledgement Part of the project includes the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamics (PK- PD) modeling of the investigational drug, blosozumab, an anti-sclerostin antibody for the treatment of osteoporosis that was done in my capacity as an employee of Eli Lilly and Company (Eli Lilly). Eli Lilly is the copyright owner of the data, figures and tables included in sections 3 and 4 of this thesis and permission was sought and obtained to use and reproduce the data, figures and tables here. Results of the PK-PD models were previously presented at the 6th Annual Meeting of the American Conference of Pharmacometrics 2015 (ACoP6, Crystal City, VA). I would like to thank the blosozumab and functional teams within Eli Lilly, special thanks to Dr. Thomas Raub, Dr. Bruce Mitlak and Gregory Cox, J.D, for their support, time and effort to review and comment on this thesis. I would like to thank my company supervisor for this project Dr. Hu Leijun within Eli Lilly for the useful discussion on the blosozumab clinical data. He supported, mentored and advised me on the project as well as gave me career guidance outside of his working hours. I would also like to express appreciation for my NUS supervisors Prof. Paul Ho Chi Lui and Dr. Yau Wai Ping for the numerous useful discussion and insights throughout this period of project work I would like to thank my company supervisor Dr. Tham Lai San within Eli Lilly for supporting and administering the PhD program with EDB to make this project possible as well as giving me one-to-one mentoring on career planning and progression. Lastly, I would like express my love and appreciations to my wife, Pei Wen, for her understanding and tremendous support during this period of time. She worked tirelessly to care for the household, our two young, energetic and lovely children Benjamin and Grace; and allowed time for me to meet the demands of this project. II Publications and Posters Related to the Project Poster Presentations: Tang CC, Benson C, McColm J, Sipos A, Mitlak B, Hu L. Population pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of Blosozumab. 6th Annual Meeting of American Conference on Pharmacometrics; 2015 Oct 4-7. Crystal City, VA Publications: McColm J, Hu L, Womack T, Tang CC, Chiang AY. Single- and multiple- dose randomized studies of blosozumab, a monoclonal antibody against sclerostin, in healthy postmenopausal women. J bone Miner Res. 2014;29(4):935-943. III Table of Content Sections Page Acknowledgement ....................................................................................................... II Publications and Posters Related to the Project .......................................................... III Table of Content ........................................................................................................ IV Summary ................................................................................................................... VII List of Tables ............................................................................................................. IX List of Figures ............................................................................................................ XI List of Abbreviations ................................................................................................ XV 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 1.1. Bone Morphology and Functions .................................................................. 1 1.2. Bone Cells ..................................................................................................... 2 1.3. Osteoporosis .................................................................................................. 5 1.4. Targeting the Wnt Pathway .......................................................................... 9 1.5. Development of Anti-Sclerostin Therapy for Osteoporosis Treatment ...... 11 1.6. Development of Blosozumab ...................................................................... 13 2. Objectives .............................................................................................................. 16 3. Population PK-PD Models of Blosozumab Materials and Methods ...................... 19 3.1. Blosozumab Clinical Studies Background .................................................. 19 3.1.1. Sample Collections ......................................................................... 23 3.1.2. PK-PD Dataset Preparation ............................................................. 25 3.2. Population Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamics Modeling Strategy ........ 27 3.2.1. General PK/PD Model Development Approach ............................. 27 3.2.2. Model Evaluation ............................................................................ 30 3.2.3. Pharmacokinetic Model .................................................................. 32 3.2.4. Pharmacodynamics Model .............................................................. 34 4. Population PK-PD Models of Blosozumab Results ............................................... 38 4.1. PK Data Disposition ................................................................................... 38 4.2. Final PK Model ........................................................................................... 40 4.3. PK Model Covariate Analysis .................................................................... 47 4.3.1. Effect of Body Weight on Blosozumab Clearance ......................... 47 4.3.2. Effect of Body Weight on Blosozumab Volumes of Distribution .. 48 4.4.3. Effect of Anti-Drug Antibody (ADA) on Blosozumab ................... 48 4.4. BMD Data Disposition ............................................................................... 48 4.5. Final BMD Model ....................................................................................... 51 IV 4.6. BMD Model Covariate Analysis................................................................. 58 5. System Pharmacology Model of Anti-Sclerostin Treatment Materials and Methods ............................................................................................................................... 60 5.1. Bone Remodeling Model Background ........................................................ 60 5.2. Dataset and Model Description ................................................................... 64 5.2.1. Mathematical Description of Target-Mediated Drug Disposition Kinetics ........................................................................................................ 66 5.2.2. Mathematical Description of the Bone Remodeling Model............ 72 5.2.3. Mathematical Description of the Bone Mineral Density Model ..... 79 6. System Pharmacology Model of Anti-Sclerostin Treatment Results..................... 81 6.1. Anti-Sclerostin mAb Target-Mediated Drug Disposition ........................... 81 6.1.1. Blosozumab TMDD model ............................................................. 81 6.1.1. Romosozumab TMDD model ......................................................... 82 6.2. Bone Biomarker Turnover Model ............................................................... 85 6.3. Bone Mineral Density Model ...................................................................... 91 6.4. Model Qualification .................................................................................... 93 6.4.1. Romosozumab TMDD Model ........................................................ 93 6.4.2. Bone biomarker and BMD prediction ............................................. 95 6.4.3. Defining the Boundary of Model Simulation.................................. 98 7. Simulation Experiments and Applications of the Models .................................... 101 7.1. Population PK-PD Model Simulations ..................................................... 101 7.1.1. Effect of Dosing Interval on Drug Exposure and BMD Responses .... ...................................................................................................... 102 7.1.2. Effect of Body Weight on Drug Exposure and BMD Responses . 107 7.2. Extended Bone Remodeling Model Simulations ...................................... 110 7.2.1. Effect of Dosing Interval on Drug Exposure and BMD Responses .... ...................................................................................................... 111 7.2.2. Duration of Precursor Osteoblast Suppression and Replenishment .... ...................................................................................................... 115 7.2.3. Long-Term Anti-Sclerostin Treatment ......................................... 116 7.2.4. Dose-Response Curve of BMD improvement .............................. 119 7.3. Comparison of Population PK-PD and Bone Remodeling Model ............ 124 7.3.1. Discussions, Strengths and Limitations of Population PK-PD Model .....................................................................................................