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Turkish Automotive Industry November, 2006

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Turkish Automotive Industry November, 2006 Gündüz Fındıkçıoğlu, PhD [email protected] Turkish Automotive +90 0212 334 5271 Industry Ali Çakıroğlu [email protected] December 25, 2006 +90 0212 334 5276 November, 2006 11M05 11M06 Nov-05 Nov-06 On new year’s eve, production figures approve our year- Production 833,258 937,473 72,535 97,992 end expectations… Domestic Fac- 319,405 295,740 34,308 27,499 tory Sales. According to the data released by the Automotive Exports 509,808 637,399 43,668 70,743 CUR 76% 81% 72% 93% Manufacturers Association of Turkey (OSD), total automotive production continued its impressive run in Monthly Car Sales 2005-2006 (000 units) November, striking 937,743 units and 12.5% y-o-y growth. 80 Evaluating November only data, total sales surged by 65 70 60 35.1% attaining to a total of 97,992 vehicles including 48 50 41 39 40 38 36 38 38 37 37 38 37 farm tractors. All vehicle groups did evidence improvement y-o- 40 33 28 30 25 25 30 21 23 21 m and m-o-m. 16 20 12 Despite a relative improvement in the slowdown due to 10 the previous months of 2006, retail sales are still a 0 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 fender-bender… 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - l t l t t r t r r i y y v c y g v n b e n b n p r l s c u c p p a a a o e a u o a e n a e u e p u u J e A O O J J J u F M F M A J N D S N g M M A S J u A OSD announced retail sales –including farm tractors– as Automotive Production (Units) 586,446 units for 11M06 pointing 10% decline y-o-y. An 1,200,000 important point to be cited is that sales of domestically produced 937,473 vehicles shrunk more than imported ones. 1,000,000 862,035 914,359 833,258 800,000 Domestic Factory Sales 562,416 In 11M06, total automotive wholesales -including farm 600,000 357,217 400,000 tractors– came out as 295,740 units, witnessing 7% 200,000 contraction y-o-y. Passenger cars wholesales contracted by 15% 0 while the corruption in commercial vehicles was relatively better 2002 2003 2004 2005 11M05 11M06 with 10%. All the same, farm tractors saved the day with an eye-catching upturn of 50% y-o-y at 37,261 units. Automotive Sales (Units) 900,000 753,732 763,186 800,000 Hitting 700,000 easily… 700,000 651,573 The momentum in exports continued in continent in 586,446 600,000 November recording 70,743 units corresponding to 62% 500,000 400,711 400,000 increase y-o-m. All three major groups i.e., passenger cars, 300,000 175,046 200,000 commercial vehicles and farm tractors, posted sizeable volume 100,000 growth whilst the extreme performances came from farm 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 11M05 11M06 tractors and passenger cars with 139% and 76% respectively. TSKB RESEARCH On new year’s eve, production figures approve our year-end expectations… According to the data released by the Automotive Manufacturers Association of Turkey (OSD), total automotive production continued its impressive run in November striking 937,743 units and 12.5% y-o-y growth. Passenger cars production recorded 500,161 units in 11M06 corresponding to a 20.3% y-o-y increase while the escalation in commercial vehicles remained relatively weak with 4.5% at 402,565 units. Farm tractors in that period do also pronounced an increase of 8% y-o-y reaching 34,747 units respective to the same period of 2005. Evaluating November only data, total sales surged by 35.1% attaining to a total of 97,992 vehicles including farm tractors. All vehicle groups did evidence improvement y-o-m and m-o-m. Passenger cars production boomed by 58.6% reaching to 52,708 units. Commercial vehicle production jumped to 41,120 units pointing 14% increase y-o-m as also the production of farm tractors grew by 21.1% bumping at 3,164 units. Ford Otosan produced a total of 234,238 units of vehicles as the top producer followed by Oyak Renaults with 211,709 units and Tofas with 162,883 units of vehicles pursued by Toyota with 160,859 units. In the passenger cars segment, Oyak Renault was the biggest manufacturer with 211,709 units followed by Toyota and Tofas with 160,859 and 73,299 respectively. Figure: 1 Automotive Production in Turkey (Units) 2002 2003 2004 2005 11M05 11M06 % Nov-05 Nov-06 %Chg Oct-06 Sep-06 Nov-Oct % Passenger Car 204,198 294,116 447,152 453,663 415,908 500,161 20.3% 33,855 53,708 58.6% 45,542 53,465 17.9% Commercial 142,367 239,506 376,256 425,789 385,182 402,565 4.5% 36,068 41,120 14.0% 34,597 39,361 18.9% Vehicle Truck 12,295 19,041 31,790 37,227 33,531 34,536 3.0% 2,936 2,873 -2.1% 2,463 3,025 16.6% Pick-Up 116,872 195,606 301,563 349,885 316,374 336,544 6.4% 30,136 34,547 14.6% 29,078 32,920 18.8% Bus 2,684 4,490 4,839 5,406 4,835 5,484 13.4% 456 485 6.4% 435 506 11.5% Minibus 6,139 13,835 28,161 26,162 23,991 18,333 -23.6% 1,802 2,320 28.7% 2,128 2,108 9.0% Midibus 4,377 6,534 9,903 7,109 6,451 7,668 18.9% 738 895 21.3% 493 802 81.5% F.Tractor 10,652 28,794 38,627 34,907 32,168 34,747 8.0% 2,612 3,164 21.1% 2,793 3,423 13.3% TOTAL 357,217 562,416 862,035 914,359 833,258 937,473 12.5% 72,535 97,992 35.1% 82,932 96,249 18.2% CUR (%) 29% 35% 52% 73% 76% 81% 72% 93% 78% 91% Source: Automotive Manufacturers Association (OSD), TSKB Research Figure: 2 Automotive Production by manufacturer (11M06) P.Car Truck Pick Up Bus Mini Bus Midi Bus F.Tractor Total A.Isuzu 0 2,792 2,124 0 0 1,830 0 6,746 Askam 0 1,055 151 0 3 0 0 1,209 B.M.C 0 6,267 3,318 516 568 291 0 10,960 Ford Otosan 0 7,345 212,181 0 14,712 0 0 234,238 Honda Turkiye 16,549 0 0 0 0 0 0 16,549 Hyndai Assan 37,745 0 16,000 0 1,136 0 0 54,881 Karsan 0 0 8,522 0 1,509 1,733 0 11,764 M.Benz Turkey 0 12,226 0 1,978 0 0 0 14,204 M.A.N 0 113 0 2,180 0 0 0 2,293 Otokar 0 0 1,326 0 405 870 0 2,601 Otoyol 0 2,003 61 0 0 1,749 0 3,813 Oyak Renault 211,709 0 0 0 0 0 0 211,709 Temsa 0 2,735 3,277 810 0 1,195 0 8,017 Tofas 73,299 0 89,584 0 0 0 0 162,883 Toyota 160,859 0 0 0 0 0 0 160,859 Tümosan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 T.Traktör 0 0 0 0 0 0 16,310 16,310 Uzel 0 0 0 0 0 0 18,437 18,437 TOTAL 500,161 34,536 336,544 5,484 18,333 7,668 34,747 937,473 Source: Automotive Producers Association (OSD), TSKB Research TSKB RESEARCH Automotive Monthly Page 2 Despite a relative improvement in the slowdown due to the previous months of 2006, retail sales are still a fender-bender… OSD announced retail sales –including farm tractors– as 586,446 units for 11M06 pointing 10% decline y-o-y. An important point to be cited is that sales of domestically pro- duced vehicles shrunk more than imported ones. Speaking by figures, 339,866 units of imported and 246,580 units of domestically produced vehicles were sold within the market denoting 9% and 11.3% declines respectively. Evaluating November sales only, total retail sales contracted by 15% y-o-m from October’s 25% contraction, posting 56,195 units with the share of imports in the total as 54.5%. Figure: 3 Automotive Sales in Turkey (Retail) (Units) 2002 2003 2004 2005 11M05 11M06 % Nov-05 Nov-06 %Chg Oct-06 Sep-06 Nov-Oct % Local 91,755 177,487 317,481 325,072 278,084 246,580 -11.3% 27,204 25,557 -6.1% 17,573 21,543 45.4% Import 83,291 223,224 436,251 438,114 373,489 339,866 -9.0% 38,908 30,638 -21.3% 22,473 28,723 36.3% Domestic Sales 175,046 400,711 753,732 763,186 651,573 586,446 -10.0% 66,112 56,195 -15.0% 40,046 50,266 40.3% Imports as % of Total 47.6% 55.7% 57.9% 57.4% 57.3% 58.0% 58.9% 54.5% 56.1% 57.1% Source: Automotive Manufacturers Association (OSD), TSKB Research Domestic Factory Sales In 11M06, total automotive wholesales -including farm tractors– came out as 295,740 units, witnessing 7% contraction y-o-y.
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