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Cleaning Pakistan's Cleaning Pakistan’s Air Pakistan’s Cleaning THE WORLD BANK WORLD THE Sánchez-Triana, Enriquez, Afzal, Nakagawa, and Shuja Khan Shuja and Nakagawa, Afzal, Enriquez, Sánchez-Triana, Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Energy andMining Energy DIRECTIONS IN DEVELOPMENT DIRECTIONS IN Policy Options to Address the Cost of theCost Options Address to Policy Ernesto Sánchez-Triana, Santiago Enriquez, Javaid Afzal, Afzal, Enriquez, Santiago Javaid Sánchez-Triana, Ernesto Cleaning Pakistan’s Air Cleaning Pakistan’s Akiko Nakagawa, ShujaKhan andAsif Outdoor Air Pollution Cleaning Pakistan’s Air DIRECTIONS IN DEVELOPMENT Energy and Mining Cleaning Pakistan’s Air Policy Options to Address the Cost of Outdoor Air Pollution Ernesto Sánchez-Triana, Santiago Enriquez, Javaid Afzal, Akiko Nakagawa, and Asif Shuja Khan © 2014 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 17 16 15 14 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpreta- tions, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions: Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Sánchez-Triana, Ernesto, Santiago Enriquez, Javaid Afzal, Akiko Nakagawa, and Asif Shuja Khan. 2014. Cleaning Pakistan’s Air: Policy Options to Address the Cost of Outdoor Air Pollution. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0235-5. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO. Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation. The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation. Third-party content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If you wish to re-use a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@ worldbank.org. ISBN (paper): 978-1-4648-0235-5 ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-0236-2 DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0235-5 Cover photo: © Giacomo Pirozzi / Panos Pictures. Used with the permission of Giacomo Pirozzi / Panos Pictures. Further permission required for reuse. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data has been requested. Cleaning Pakistan’s Air • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0235-5 In memory of Gajanand Pathmanathan Cleaning Pakistan’s Air • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0235-5 Contents Foreword xv Acknowledgments xvii About the Authors xix Abbreviations xxi Executive Summary 1 Policy Options to Address the Cost of Outdoor Air Pollution in Pakistan 1 Introduction 1 Data Availability and Methodology 5 Analysis of Air Quality Data 7 Health Damages Associated with Air Pollution 12 Air Quality Regulatory Framework 15 Air Quality Management and Climate Change 18 Policy Options for Abating Urban Air Pollution from Mobile Sources 20 Policy Options for Abating Urban Air Pollution from Stationary Sources 24 Capacity Building for Air Quality Management 29 Conclusions and Recommendations 31 Notes 34 Bibliography 36 Chapter 1 Overview 43 Introduction 43 Objective 48 Methodology 48 Analytical Value-Added 51 Structure of the Book 51 Notes 52 Bibliography 53 Cleaning Pakistan’s Air • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0235-5 vii viii Contents Chapter 2 Air Pollution in Pakistan 57 Introduction 57 Analysis of Air Quality Data 59 Air Pollution and the Quality of Life in Pakistan 66 The Economic Cost of Air Pollution in Pakistan 70 Conclusions 75 Notes 76 Bibliography 78 Chapter 3 Air Quality Management Institutions 83 Introduction 83 Pakistan’s Air Quality Regulatory Framework 84 Organizational Structure for Air Quality Management 88 Coordination and Decentralization of Air Quality Management Responsibilities 89 Monitoring Ambient Air Pollution 92 The Judiciary and the Enforcement of Regulations 93 Conclusions and Recommendations 94 Notes 98 References 99 Chapter 4 Mobile Sources 101 Introduction 101 Ambient Air Quality and Exposed Population in Karachi 102 Lead Exposure 108 Neuropsychological Effects in Children under Five Years 112 Social Cost of Health Effects 114 Interventions to Improve Air Quality 118 Conclusions and Recommendations 128 Notes 131 References 133 Chapter 5 Industrial and Other Stationary Sources 139 Introduction 139 Inventory of Stationary Sources 141 Industrial Air Pollution 143 Control of Air Pollution from Stationary Sources 147 Control of Diffuse Sources 152 Conclusions and Recommendations 152 Notes 155 References 156 Cleaning Pakistan’s Air • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0235-5 Contents ix Chapter 6 Potential Co-Benefits of Air Quality Management for Climate Change 159 Introduction 159 Climate Change and Air Pollution Interactions 160 Air Quality Management and Climate Change Co-Benefits in Pakistan 163 Policy Options 164 Conclusions and Recommendations 166 Note 167 References 167 Chapter 7 Conclusions and Recommendations 171 Conclusions 171 References 179 Figures 1 Motor Vehicles on Road (in thousands) in Pakistan, 1991–2012 3 2 Temporal Trend for PM2.5, SO2, NO2, O3, and CO for Five Pakistan Cities: Islamabad (ISL), Quetta (QUE), Lahore (LAH), Karachi (KAR), and Peshawar (PES) 9 3 Correlations between PM2.5, SO2, NO2, O3, and CO for Islamabad, Quetta, Karachi, Peshawar, and Lahore 12 4 Estimate of Annual Average PM2.5 Ambient Air Concentrations, Karachi, 2006–09 14 5 GHG Emissions in South Asia 19 6 Benefit-Cost Ratios of Low-Sulfur Fuels in Karachi 21 7 Benefit-Cost Ratios of Retrofitting In-Use Diesel Vehicles with DOC 22 1.1 Motor Vehicles on the Road (in thousands) in Pakistan, 1991–2012 45 3 2.1 PM10 Concentrations at the Country Level (µg/m ), 2008 58 2.2 Wind Roses for PM2.5, SO2, NO2, O3, and CO for Four Different Cities: Peshawar (PES), Lahore (LAH), Karachi (KAR), and Islamabad (ISL) 60 2.3 Temporal Trend for PM2.5, SO2, NO2, O3, and CO for Five Pakistan Cities: Peshawar (PES), Lahore (LAH), Karachi (KAR), Islamabad (ISL), and Quetta (QUE) 62 2.4 Correlations between PM2.5, SO2, NO2, O3, and CO for Islamabad (ISL), Quetta (QUE), Karachi (KAR), Peshawar (PES), and Lahore (LAH) 65 2.5 Income and Urban Pollution Levels across Countries, 2007 67 Cleaning Pakistan’s Air • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0235-5 x Contents 2.6 Quality of Living and Eco-Cities Indexes in Selected Cities, 2010 68 2.7 Government Effectiveness and Air Quality (PM10), 2008 69 2.8 Measured Concentration Levels of PM10 in Selected Cities in Pakistan; Data from Studies Undertaken between 1999 and 2006 70 2.9 Sources of Particulate Matter Emissions from Fossil Fuels Combustion in Pakistan, 2008 71 2.10 Estimate of Annual Average PM2.5 Ambient Air Concentrations in Karachi, 2006–09 (µg/m3) 73 2.11 Suspected Blood Lead Levels (BLL) in Children under Five Years in Sindh 74 2.12 Loss of IQ Points in Early Childhood in Relation to Lower Threshold Levels (X0) of Blood Lead Levels (BLL) 75 4.1 PM Ambient Concentrations in Karachi, SUPARCO, 2007–08 103 4.2 PM2.5 Ambient Air Concentrations in Karachi, Sindh-EPA, 2008–09 103 4.3 Monthly Average Wind Speed and Rainfall in Karachi 106 4.4 Estimated Blood Lead Level (BLL) in Children 2–5 Years Old, in Relation to Pb in Drinking Water 111 4.5 Loss of IQ Points in Early Childhood in Relation to Lower Threshold Levels (X0) of Blood Lead Levels (BLL) 114 4.6 Benefit-Cost Ratios of 500-ppm Sulfur Diesel (Left) and 50-ppm Sulfur Diesel (Right) in Karachi 123 4.7 European Union Diesel Vehicle Emission Standards for PM 124 4.8 European Union Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines Emission Standards for PM 124 4.9 Benefit-Cost Ratios of Retrofitting In-Use Diesel Vehicles with DOC 125 4.10 Benefit-Cost Ratios of Converting In-Use Diesel-Fueled Minibuses and Vans to CNG 127 4.11 Benefit-Cost Ratios of Low-Sulfur
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