https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-21 Preprint. Discussion started: 22 April 2020 c Author(s) 2020. CC BY 4.0 License. Compound Hot-Dry and Cold-Wet Dynamical Extremes Over the Mediterranean Paolo De Luca1,2, Gabriele Messori2,3, Davide Faranda4,5, Philip J. Ward1, and Dim Coumou1,6 1Department of Water and Climate Risk, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands 2Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden 3Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm, Sweden 4Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France 5London Mathematical Laboratory, London, UK 6Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands Correspondence: Paolo De Luca (
[email protected]) Abstract. The Mediterranean (MED) basin is a climate change hot-spot that has seen drying and a pronounced increase in heatwaves over the last century. At the same time, it is experiencing increasing heavy precipitation during wintertime cold spells. Understanding and quantifying the risks from compound events over the MED is paramount for present and future disaster risk reduction measures. Here, we apply a novel method to study compound events based on dynamical systems theory 5 and analyse compound temperature and precipitation anomalies over the MED from 1979 to 2018. The dynamical systems analysis measures the strength of the coupling between different atmospheric variables over the MED. Further, we consider compound hot-dry days in summer and cold-wet days in winter. Our results show that these hot-dry and cold-wet compound days are associated with maxima in the temperature-precipitation coupling parameter of the dynamical systems analysis.