Urban3 L-Rock 8-14-17.Key

Understanding the Market Forces of Regional Development: The Dollars and $ense of Development Patterns Joseph Minicozzi, AICP toX DNA DNA DNA DNA DNA DNA

tragically limited in their knowledge of the world tragically limited in their knowledge of the world

4 Hours 4 Hours 4 Hours 4 Hours 4 Hours 4 Hours Things Change… The 3 T’s -Things Trains, Change… Tourism, & Tuberculosis

During the 1920’s

• Asheville grew by 20% population/year • Second largest city in NC, (larger than Charlotte!) • Achieved the highest debt per capita in the entire US • City thought it had $5M in bank, but when the audit on the bank happened, it was discovered to only be $18,000 • 3 days after elected officials were indicted, the Mayor committed suicide Thomas Wolfe Author (1900-1938) You Can’t Go Home Again Asheville has squandered fabulous sums. They’ve flung away the earnings of a lifetime. They’ve mortgaged those of a generation to come. They have ruined a city, and in doing so, Thomas Wolfe have ruined themselves, their children, and their children’s children. Author (1900-1938) You Can’t Go Home Again

The Decline Began in the 50’s & 60’s Development outside of downtown was encouraged by the new expressways.

Asheville’s Expressway

Development outside of downtown was encouraged by the new expressways.

The 73 acre Asheville Mall In the 70’s and 80’s our downtown died

In the 70’s and 80’s our downtown died.

Asheville’s de facto motto was: “That will never work here - don’t even try.” City Seeds Salsa’s & Zambras Public Interest Projects

51 Biltmore Downtown benches The Orange Peel Julian Price

1941 - 11/19/2001 The Mountain Xpress YWCA

the Alternative Reading Room the Dogwood Fund The Public Service Building The Laughing Seed

In God we trust; everyone else, bring data.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg Asheville CBD Taxable Value Asheville CBD Taxable Value Asheville’s de facto motto was: “That will never work here - don’t even try.” Asheville CBD Taxable Value Incorporate (inˈkôrpəˌrāt) VERB Constitute (a company, city, or other organization) as a legal corporation.

Source: Oxford Dictionary “The United States is the largest corporation in the world.”

Joe Biden United States Vice President Late Show: 12/6/2016

U.S. Code Title 28: Part VI, Chapter 176, Subchapter A: §302(15)A Life is a game. Money is how we keep score. Ted Turner Asheville is 6x >

Life is a game. Money is how we keep score. Ted Turner What is a City? Photo: James Harrison What is a City? Land Production Today the building is valued at over $11,000,000 an increase of

over 3,500%

in 15 years The lot is less than 1/5 acre For 40 years this building remained Old Penneys vacant…… its tax value in 1991 was just over $300,000 Downtown Walmart My House

34.0 Acres 0.19 Acres 0.13 Acres 220,000 sf Building 54,000 sf. Bld 1 unit (2 people + 2 dogs) $20,000,000 Tax Value $11,000,000 Tax Value $232,000 Tax Value Downtown Walmart My House

34.0 Acres 0.19 Acres 0.13 Acres 220,000 sf Building 54,000 sf. Bld 1 unit (2 people + 2 dogs) $20,000,000 Tax Value $11,000,000 Tax Value $232,000 Tax Value

Property Taxes/Acre $19,542 Downtown Walmart My House

34.0 Acres 0.19 Acres 0.13 Acres 220,000 sf Building 54,000 sf. Bld 1 unit (2 people + 2 dogs) $20,000,000 Tax Value $11,000,000 Tax Value $232,000 Tax Value

Property Taxes/Acre Property Taxes/Acre $6,500 $19,542 Downtown Walmart My House

34.0 Acres 0.19 Acres 0.13 Acres 220,000 sf Building 54,000 sf. Bld 1 unit (2 people + 2 dogs) $20,000,000 Tax Value $11,000,000 Tax Value $232,000 Tax Value

Property Taxes/Acre Property Taxes/Acre Property Taxes/Acre $6,500 $634,000 $19,542 Cannabis Wheat Soybeans

34.0 Acres 0.19 Acres 0.13 Acres 220,000 sf Building 54,000 sf. Bld 1 unit (2 people + 2 dogs) $20,000,000 Tax Value $11,000,000 Tax Value $232,000 Tax Value

Property Taxes/Acre Property Taxes/Acre Property Taxes/Acre $6,500 $634,000 $19,542 Property + Retail Sales Taxes Downtown

Retail Sales (average) $77,000,000

$6,500 Total Property Taxes/Acre $634,000 Total Property Taxes/Acre

$3,300 to the City $330,000 to the City Property + Retail Sales Taxes Downtown

Retail Sales (average) $77,000,000

$0.0775 Sales Tax of which…

27% returned to City

$6,500 Total Property Taxes/Acre $634,000 Total Property Taxes/Acre

$3,300 to the City $330,000 to the City Property + Retail Sales Taxes Downtown

Retail Sales (average) $77,000,000

$47,500 Sales Tax City return

$6,500 Total Property Taxes/Acre $634,000 Total Property Taxes/Acre

$3,300 to the City $330,000 to the City Property + Retail Sales Taxes Downtown

Asheville Walmart

Total Taxes/Acre to the City Property Taxes/Acre to the City $50,800 $330,000 Property + Retail Sales Taxes Downtown

Asheville Walmart

Total Taxes/Acre to the City Total Taxes/Acre to the City $50,800 $414,000 Downtown Jobs per Acre

Asheville Walmart

200 jobs on 34.0 acres 14 jobs on 0.19 Acres 5.9 73.7 Downtown Asheville Walmart

Land Consumed (Acres): 34.0 00.2 Total Property Taxes/Acre: $ 6,500 $634,000 City Retail Taxes/Acre: $ 47,500 $ 83,600 Residents per Acre: 0.0 90.0 Jobs per Acre: 5.9 73.7 International Association of Assessing Officers 80th International Conference Sacramento, CA August 26, 2014

Charles Terrell, CMI

Walmart Director of Property Tax Walmart = House Cat Buncombe County Property Tax Revenue Profile: 2007 Tax Yield per Acre

$1,800 $1,716

$1,350 $1,236

$900

$450

$135 $30 $0 Undeveloped Biltmore Estate County Residential City Residential Residential Buncombe County Property Tax Revenue Profile: 2007 Tax Yield per Acre $7,995 $8,000

$6,000

$4,000

$2,406

$2,000 $1,716

$1,236

$30 $135 $0 Undeveloped Biltmore Estate County Residential City Residential City - Commercial Asheville Mall Residential Commercial Buncombe County Property Tax Revenue Profile: 2007 Tax Yield per Acre

$250,125

$225,000

$150,000

$75,000

$44,887

$18,109 $7,995 $7,059 $30 $135 $1,236 $1,716 $2,406 $0

Undeveloped Biltmore Estate City Residential Asheville Mall County Residential City - Commercial Residential CBD 1-2 Story OfficeCBD 2-4 Story Apts. Commercial CBD Mixed-Use 3-4 StoriesCBD Mixed-Use 6+ Stories Central Business District Scary Math How do you compare cars?

Toyota Prius 571 miles per tank Ford F150 Lariat LTD 648 miles per tank

1955 BMW Isetta 245 miles per tank

Bugatti Veyron SS Rolls-Royce Phantom Drophead 390 miles per tank 380 miles per tank How do you compare cars?

1 2

Toyota Prius 571 miles per tank Ford F150 Lariat LTD 5 648 miles per tank

1955 BMW Isetta 4 245 miles per tank 3

Bugatti Veyron SS Rolls-Royce Phantom Drophead 390 miles per tank 380 miles per tank How do you compare cars?

Toyota Prius 51/48 mpg Ford F150 Lariat LTD 13/18 mpg

1955 BMW Isetta 50/70 mpg

Bugatti Veyron SS Rolls-Royce Phantom Drophead 8/14 mpg 11/18 mpg How do you compare cars?

3 2

Toyota Prius 51/48 mpg Ford F150 Lariat LTD 1 13/18 mpg

1955 BMW Isetta 4 50/70 mpg 5

Bugatti Veyron SS Rolls-Royce Phantom Drophead 8/14 mpg 11/18 mpg Great Falls, MT Helena, MT

Missoula, MT Bozeman, MT Billings, MT Traverse City, MI Burlington, VT Sheridan, WY Guelph, ON Driggs, ID Casper, WY Niagara Falls, NY Rockland, ME Syracuse, NY Laramie, WY Buffalo, NY Cheyenne, WY Des Moines, IA South Bend, IN Derby , CT Ft. Collins, CO Rifle, CO Philadelphia, PA Santa Rosa, CA Peoria, IL Grand Junction, CO Petaluma, CA Modesto, CA Huntington, WV Merced, CA Glenwood Springs, CO Turlock, CA Durango, CO Pueblo, CO Clovis, CA Winston-Salem, NC Mountain View, CA Fresno, CA Greensboro, NC Asheville, NC Chapel Hill, NC Visalia, CA Nashville, TN High Point, NC Dunn, NC Redlands, CA Chattanooga, TN Charlotte, NC Albuquerque, NM Wilmington, NC Lancaster, CA Gwinnett, GA Columbia, SC

Columbus, GA Charleston, SC

Austin, TX Lafayette, LA Hinesville, GA

Auckland, NZ Sarasota, FL West Palm Beach, FL Estero, FL Urban 3 Completed Study $300 Urban3 County Property Taxes/Acre Joseph Minicozzi, AICP Ratio Difference of 60 City Sample Set, in 21 States (+ a Province)

Residential $274.00 Commercial Mixed-Use

$225

$150

$95.00

$75

$47.80

$6.70 $9.30 $1.00 $5.50 $0 Mixed-Use Mixed-Use Mixed-Use County S-F City S-F Walmart Mall or strip (2 Story) (3 Story) (6 Story) Geology

“...when you least expect it, you see a crack open and a different city appear.” Italo Calvino Invisible City Geology

“...when you least expect it, you see a crack open and a different city appear.” Italo Calvino Invisible City Streets - Infrastructure

Geology

“...when you least expect it, you see a crack open and a different city appear.” Italo Calvino Invisible City Streets - Infrastructure

Geology

“...when you least expect it, you see a crack open and a different city appear.” Italo Calvino Invisible City Streets - Infrastructure

Buildings

Geology

“...when you least expect it, you see a crack open and a different city appear.” Italo Calvino Invisible City Streets - Infrastructure

Buildings

Geology

“...when you least expect it, you see a crack open and a different city appear.” Italo Calvino Invisible City Streets - Infrastructure

Buildings

Geology

“...when you least expect it, you see a crack open and a different city appear.” Italo Calvino Invisible City Streets - Infrastructure

Buildings

Geology

Hydrology

“...when you least expect it, you see a crack open and a different city appear.” Italo Calvino Invisible City Streets - Infrastructure

Buildings

Geology

“...when you least expect it, you see a crack open and a different city appear.” Italo Calvino Invisible City

Hydrology Streets - Infrastructure

Buildings

Geology

“...when you least expect it, you see a crack open and a different city appear.” Italo Calvino Invisible City

Hydrology Streets - Infrastructure

Buildings

Geology

“...when you least expect it, you see a crack open and a different city appear.” Italo Calvino Invisible City

Hydrology Streets - Infrastructure

Buildings

Geology

“...when you least expect it, you see a crack open and a different city appear.” Italo Calvino Invisible City

Hydrology Streets - Infrastructure

Buildings

“...when you least expect it, you see a crack open and a different city appear.” Geology Italo Calvino Invisible City

Hydrology Streets - Infrastructure

Buildings

Tax Productivity

“...when you least expect it, you see a crack open and a different city appear.” Geology Italo Calvino Invisible City

Hydrology

The City The City Property Tax Retail Sales Infrastructure Jobs ROI What are the numbers for Buncombe County? Total Taxable Value Buncombe County, NC

Biltmore Estate Taxable Value per Acre Buncombe County, NC

Black Mountain

Biltmore Estate

Biltmore Park What are the numbers for Travis County? Taxable Value Per Acre Travis County, TX Travis County Property Tax Revenue Profile: 2014

1.1 acres of B.D. Riley’s would equal the 20.4 acre Walmart

B.D. Riley’s $14,218,986 Value per Acre

Walmart $784,721 value per acre Joe Minicozzi,AICP - Asheville NC RETAIL SALES Urban Source: Tax PolicyCenter2014 Local RevenueSourcesbyState Other Income Sales Property 3

Maine Connecticut New Hampshire New Jersey Rhode Island Montana Massachusetts Wisconson Idaho Minnesota Vermont Michigan Mississippi Oregon Illinois Texas Delaware North Dakota Iowa West Virginia Florida South Carolina Nebraska Wyoming Kansas Hawaii Indiana North Carolina Virginia Alaska South Dakota California Utah Pennsylvania Nevada Georgia Arizona Colorado Ohio Tennessee Washington Missouri New York Maryland Kentucky New Mexico Oklahoma Louisiana Alabama Arkansas DC Urban Source: Tax PolicyCenter2014 Local RevenueSourcesbyState Other Income Sales Property 3

Maine Connecticut New Hampshire New Jersey Rhode Island Montana Massachusetts Wisconson Idaho Minnesota Vermont Michigan Mississippi Oregon Illinois Texas Delaware North Dakota Iowa West Virginia Florida South Carolina Nebraska Wyoming Kansas Hawaii Indiana North Carolina Virginia Alaska South Dakota California Utah Pennsylvania Nevada Georgia Arizona Colorado Ohio Tennessee Washington Missouri New York Maryland Kentucky New Mexico Oklahoma Louisiana Alabama Arkansas DC Mixed Beverage Sales per Acre Six County Austin Metro Area Austin CBD

78704 South of Downtown, across river

Map

Metro Region 3D Map Retail & Food Sales per Acre Six County Austin Metro Area Austin CBD

78756 Rosedale and Burnet Road Area

Map

Metro Region 3D Map Retail & Food Sales per Acre Six County Austin Metro Area Austin CBD

78756 Rosedale and Burnet Road Area

Map Mall Zone {

Metro Region 3D Map Retail Model Comparables Metro Retail Sales Models Retail Model Comparables Metro Retail Sales Models

Austin CBD

Mall Zone {

Austin Metro Region Retail Model Comparables Metro Retail Sales Models

Austin CBD

Syracuse CBD

Mall Zone { Mall Zone {

Austin Metro Region Syracuse Metro Region Retail Model Comparables Metro Retail Sales Models

Austin CBD

Syracuse CBD

Nashville CBD

Mall Zone { Mall Zone {

Mall Zone {

Austin Metro Region Syracuse Metro Region Nashville Metro Region What are the numbers for Davidson County?

2013 Nashville, TN Total Value Per Acre (GSD) Map by J. McCarty Nashville, TN Total Value Per Acre

3D Image Nashville, TN Total Value Per Acre

The Gulch Average $15,892,934/acre Walmart (100 Oaks) $1,208,732/acre Nashville, TN Total Value Per Acre

3189 Parthenon Midtown Lofts $7,046,590/acre $10,547,130/acre Long Boulevard Infill $11,720,273/acre

2112 Acklen $10,583,276/acre Walmart (100 Oaks) $1,208,732/acre Davidson County Property Tax Revenue Proﬁle: 2013 Tax Yield

Opryland Mall $225M on 123 acres

21 acres of Acklen Infill would equal the property taxes of one 123 acre Opryland Mall

Acklen Infill $6.1M on 0.5 acres Davidson County Property Tax Revenue Proﬁle: 2013 Tax Yield

100 Oaks $101M on 51.8 acres

0.53 acres of Wanna B’s would equal the property taxes of one 51.8 acre 100 Oaks Mall

Tequila Cowboy $9.6M on 0.05 acres What are the numbers for the Greenville Metro? 67,500 pop. Net New Land Consumed Existing Conditions

39 miles

EXISTING AREA

27,000 pop. 725 mi2 RETAIL SALES Urban Source: Tax PolicyCenter2014 Local RevenueSourcesbyState Other Income Sales Property 3

City of Greenville, SC

Anderson County, SC Tax Value per Acre Greenville, SC Tax Value per Acre Greenville, SC 3%

97% City County County Area Tax Value per Acre 3% Greenville, SC 19%

97% 81% City County County Area County Value Tax Value per Acre 3% Greenville, SC 19%

97% 81% City County County Area County Value

1:6 Tax Value per Acre Downtown Greenville, SC Tax Value per Acre Downtown Greenville, SC 1%

99% City Downtown City Area Tax Value per Acre Downtown Greenville, SC 1% 9%

99% 91% City Downtown City Area City Value Tax Value per Acre Downtown Greenville, SC 1% 9%

99% 91% City Downtown City Area City Value

1:9 Tax Value per Acre Downtown Greenville, SC Tax Value per Acre Downtown Greenville, SC 0.033%

100% Downtown County County Area Tax Value per Acre Downtown Greenville, SC 0.033% 2%

100% 98% Downtown County County Area County Value Tax Value per Acre Downtown Greenville, SC 0.033% 2%

100% 98% Downtown County County Area County Value

1:61 Tax Value per Acre Greenville, SC

2.3 acres of 18 S Main would equal property tax production of entire 73-acre Greenridge Cluster

18 S Main St $30,180,617/acre

Greenridge Cluster $947,138/acre Development Productivity Greenville, SC

Woodruff Road Corridor Downtown Greenville Development Productivity Greenville, SC

Woodruff Road Corridor Downtown Greenville Net New Land Consumed Existing Conditions

EXISTING AREA

725 mi2 Net New Land Consumed Trend Scenario

Trend

920 mi2

2 NEW LAND 725 mi DEVELOPED Net New Land Consumed Trend Scenario

Trend

920 mi2

2 NEW LAND 725 mi DEVELOPED Net New Land Consumed Compact Growth Scenario

Trend

Compact

725 mi2 14.5 mi2 Regional Land Coverage Greenville Metro 2017

2 725 mi Regional Land Coverage Trend Greenville Metro 2040

2 920 mi

Current 1.4M Adding 321k (136% growth) Adding 195ac (226% growth) Urban3 Regional Land Coverage Greenville Metro 2017 2 725 mi

EXISTING

Current 1.4M 2 TREND Adding 321k (136% growth) 920 mi Adding 195ac (226% growth) Urban3 Asheville

2 = 45.25 mi

2 TREND 920 mi Urban3 Asheville x20

2 = 45.25 mi

2 TREND 920 mi Urban3 Charlotte

2 = 297.7 mi

2 TREND 920 mi Urban3 Charlotte x 3

2 = 297.7 mi

2 TREND 920 mi Urban3 ¾ of Rhode Island

2 1,212 mi

2 TREND 920 mi What are the numbers for Redlands? Taxable Value per Acre Redlands, CA

I-210

I-10

I-10 Taxable Value per Acre Redlands, CA

I-210

I-10

I-10 Taxable Value per Acre Redlands, CA

I-210

I-10

Citibank $6,313,552/acre Taxable Value per Acre Redlands, CA

I-210

$20.7m Value/Acre

I-10

Citibank $6,313,552/acre San Bernardino County, CA Comparative Property Tax Impact

3.18 acres of the Shoe Shop would equal the 12.7 acre Walmart

The Shoe Repair $4,394,852/acre

Walmart $1,098,462/acre San Bernardino County, CA Comparative Property Tax Impact

Southside State Block $8,619,807/acre

47.5 acres of the South State Block would equal the retail tax* production of the 120 acre Mountain Grove complex

Mountain Grove $874,737/acre * Retail sales estimated from sample San Bernardino County, CA Comparative Property Tax Impact

Southside State Block $8,619,807/acre

12.2 acres of the South State Block would equal the property tax production of the 120 acre Mountain Grove complex

Mountain Grove $874,737/acre San Bernardino County, CA Comparative Property Tax Impact

Southside State Block $8,619,807/acre

18.5 acres of the South State Block would equal the TOTAL tax* production of the 120 acre Mountain Grove complex

Mountain Grove $874,737/acre * Retail sales estimated from sample San Bernardino County, CA Comparative Property Tax Impact

Southside State Block $8,619,807/acre

18.5 acres of the South State Block would equal the TOTAL tax* production of the 120 acre Mountain Grove complex

Mountain Grove $874,737/acre * Retail sales estimated from sample Redlands Mall

Redlands Mall Valuation Redlands, CA

2017 Condition

$5.6M Current Taxable Value Redlands Mall Valuation Redlands, CA

2017 Condition What if old buildings were maintained? $21M Estimated Taxable Value Redlands Mall Valuation Redlands, CA

2017 Condition 1959 Buildings $5.6M $21M Current Taxable Value Estimated Taxable Value

If old buildings were maintained, you’d have 3x more tax base. Redlands Mall Valuation Redlands, CA Idea: MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN.

2017 Condition 1959 Buildings $5.6M $21M Current Taxable Value Estimated Taxable Value

If old buildings were maintained, you’d have 3x more tax base. If you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it. Mayor Michael Bloomberg Lafayette, LA Lafayette, LA

“It's déjà vu all over again” - Yogi Berra Lafayette, LA

“It's déjà vu all over again” - Yogi Berra I-49 Property Taxes Per Acre Lafayette Parish, LA

I-10

Johnston Vermillion Pavement I-49

Network Distribution Methodology Lafayette Parish, LA

I-10

This is the relative necessity of all trips in the network.

Johnston

System Weighted * Computer simulation Source: LCG/LUS/MPO 250,000,000 Can Retail Taxes Catch Up to Road Expense? Lafayette Parish, LA

'(250,000,000)

'(500,000,000)

'(750,000,000)

Capital Revenue (Sales Tax) Accumulated Road Fees

'(1,000,000,000) 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058 250,000,000 Can Retail Taxes Catch Up to Road Expense? Lafayette Parish, LA

'(250,000,000)

'(500,000,000)

'(750,000,000)

Capital Revenue (Sales Tax) Accumulated Road Fees

$55,585,797 ($990,281,226) Capital Revenue Road Cost Accumulated 50 Year Total (2015) Lafayette, LA

17.8x

$55,585,797 ($990,281,226) Capital Revenue Road Cost Accumulated 50 Year Total (2015) Lafayette, LA

17.8x

This is committed to debt service

$55,585,797 ($990,281,226) Capital Revenue Road Cost “It’s not where you live; it’s what you believe.” Jared Bellerd Lafayette Coucilman “It’s not where you live; There is no such thing as an infrastructure fairy. it’s what you believe.” Kevin Blanchard Jared Bellerd World’s Greatest Public Works Director Lafayette Coucilman “It’s not where you live; There is no such thing as an infrastructure fairy. it’s what you believe.” Kevin Blanchard Jared Bellerd World’s Greatest Public Works Director Lafayette Coucilman Downtown

Revenues

Expenses

Expense and Revenue Ratio Lafayette Parish, LA Downtown

Net Positive

Net Negative

Expense and Revenue Ratio Lafayette Parish, LA Operating Expense Ratio Lafayette Parish, LA Downtown

Mall River Ranch Mall Operating Expense Ratio (Total) Lafayette Parish, LA Downtown MARKET FORCES Operating Expense Ratio (Total) Lafayette Parish, LA

Mall

Downtown

Lafayette Cash Flow Model Operating Expense Ratio (Total) Lafayette Parish, LA

Mall Vermillion River

Downtown

Lafayette Cash Flow Model Operating Expense Ratio (Total) Lafayette Parish, LA

Mall Vermillion River

Downtown

Lafayette Cash Flow Model MPO 2040 Population Model Projections Population Feet of pipe/person Fire Hydrants/1,000 people

Source: Sanborn Maps and LCG Records 1949 33,500 Population Feet of pipe/person Fire Hydrants/1,000 people

Source: Sanborn Maps and LCG Records 1949 5 33,500 Population Feet of pipe/person Fire Hydrants/1,000 people