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Effects of Market Structure Changes on Dairy Supply Chain in Serbia

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Effects of Market Structure Changes on Dairy Supply Chain in Serbia Effects of market structure changes on dairy supply chain in Serbia Rade Popovic Department for Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness The Faculty of Economics Subotica University of Novi Sad Dairy policies SERBIA Until 2001 Maximum retail prices and subsidies for pasteurized milk High border protection After 2001 Deregulation of dairy market Subsidies for row milk directly to producers Additional subsidies Free trade agreements and lowering of border protection Dairy farms SERBIA 285,000 dairy farms in Serbia Small scale production 2.2 cow per farm Family farms produce 91.3% of milk Number and share of small farms decreasing Number and share of commercial family farms increasing Companies produce 8.7% of milk Milk production is stable in last 10 years Share of milk for human use in legal market channel is 52.6% and increasing No dairy cooperatives Production on farms is diversified Small dairy farms in some areas losing market opportunities Dairy farms SERBIA 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Cows (in thousand) Milk yield (l/cow/year) Milk production for human use (million l) Dairy processors SERBIA 202 dairy processing companies in 2007 4 the biggest companies control 60.3% of row milk market Successful privatization Concentration and Market power Innovativeness and diversification of product Active influence of dairy farms Vertical integrations Rationalization of supply base Organize milk collecting stations and transport Raw milk prices establishing on the milk quality control carried out by processors Dairy processors SERBIA Deliveries of milk to Market share Company name dairies (in liters) 2006 2007 2006 2007 Dairies in structure of DANUBE FOODS GROUP B.V. 350,374,975 361,959,880 47.4% 44.4% 1. - IMLEK, IMPAZ and 230,587,554 243,462,640 31.2% 29.9% Zemunska mlekara - Novosadska mlekara 60,697,564 61,205,680 8.2% 7.5% - Mlekara Subotica 59,089,857 57,291,560 8.0% 7.0% 2. „Mlekara Šabac“, Šabac 43,187,653 56,945,950 5.8% 7% 3. „Somboled“, Sombor 40,256,713 43,665,250 5.4% 5.4% 4. „Mlekoprodukt“, Zrenjanin 28,977,976 28,720,080 3.9% 3.5% Dairies from 5 to 15 millions liters 5. 126,563,765 158,097,080 17.1% 19.4% of processed milk Small sized dairies with less than 6. 150,584,654 165,139,540 20.4% 20.3% 5 millions liters processed milk TOTAL: 739,945,736 814,527,780 100.0% 100.0% 1Source: MAFW Register Retail sector and consumers SERBIA Mostly domestic companies Foreign competitors mainly from ex Yugoslav republics Market power High margins and high retail prices Huge credit period from processors, 90 – 100 days Demand drivers: Population decreasing Income slightly increase Milk Milk Milk and liquid Year Cheese Butter production consumption milk products Per capita 2005 215.3 208.2 174.3 3.3 0.6 2006 214.1 205.7 170.8 3.3 0.5 2007 209.7 201.3 165.3 3.4 0.6 2008 208.3 200.6 163.3 3.5 0.7 Economics of milk production SERBIA 45 40 y = 0,0636x + 29,021 R2 = 0,4791 35 30 Dinar Dinar / liter 25 20 - 20 40 60 80 100 120 Herd size Average cost Marginal cost Average revenue Linear (Average revenue) Monthly prices in US $/100kg milk 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 0,0 Time laggedTime milk prices and volatile price milk transmission Asymmetric Monthly milk prices 2006-2008 prices milk Monthly jan.06 feb.06 mar.06 apr.06 World* Serbia - commercial farms Serbia Poland Germany maj.06 jun.06 jul.06 avg.06 sep.06 okt.06 nov.06 dec.06 jan.07 feb.07 mar.07 apr.07 maj.07 jun.07 jul.07 avg.07 sep.07 okt.07 nov.07 dec.07 jan.08 feb.08 mar.08 apr.08 maj.08 jun.08 jul.08 avg.08 SERBIA sep.08 okt.08 nov.08 dec.08 Conclusions SERBIA Changes along dairy supply chain are characterized: market deregulations, concentration of row milk production, strengthening of formal row milk market, successful privatization and development of dairy processing sector, concentration in retail sector and slightly decrease of dairy consumption with changing structure of its consumption Main constrains identified in dairy supply chain are: lack of dairy cooperatives, low transparency of economics of all links in dairy chain, retailers’ market power and lack of transparency and consistency in agriculture long term policy.
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