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637.1:339.13 Strukturne Promene Na Tr RADE I. POPOVI Ć Univerzitet u Novom Sadu, Ekonomski fakultet Subotica NAU ČNI RAD UDK: 637.1:339.13 STRUKTURNE PROMENE NA TRŽIŠTU MLE ČNIH PROIZVODA U SRBIJI 1 Izvod Proizvodnja, prerada i prodaja mleka i mle čnih proizvoda jedan je od najzna čajnijih segmenata agrobiznis sektora u Srbiji. U radu su analizirane strukturne promene na tržištu mle čnih proizvoda u periodu od 2006. do 2008. godine. Ove promene obuhvataju tržišne pozicije mlekara, kao i njihovu proizvodnu strukturu. Utvr đeno je da su dve mlekare iz grupe velikih mlekara i mlekare iz grupe mlekara srednjeg kapaciteta pove ćale svoj tržišni udeo i ostvarile bolju konkurentsku poziciju. Struktura proizvodnje pet najve ćih mlekara koje prera đuju više od 60% otkupljenog sirovog mleka zna čajno je promenjena u ovom kratkom vremenskom periodu. Fokus u strukturi njihove proizvodnje je premešten sa proizvodnje sireva na proizvodnju široke palete fermentisanih mle čnih napitaka. Udeo proizvodnje UHT i pasterizovanog mleka je zadržan u istom obimu, ali uz rastu ći zna čaj proizvodnje UHT mleka na ra čun smanjenja proizvodnje pasterizovanog mleka. Klju čne re či: tržište, formalno tržište, mleko, mle čni proizvodi, prerada, mlekare, ponuda Uvod Sa u češ ćem od 11% u vrednosti autputa poljoprivrede, proizvodnja mleka je jedna od najzna čajnijih grana poljoprivrede Srbije. U preradi mleka u prethodnim godinama u čestvovalo je oko 200 privrednih subjekata, koji čine ukupnu doma ću ponudu na zvani čnom (formalnom) tržištu mleka. Formalno tržište mleka u Srbiji raste iz godine u godinu i u 2008. godini je dostiglo 53,8% od ukupno proizvedenog mleka namenjenog ljudskoj ishrani. Preostalo proizvedeno mleko jednim delom se koristi za potrebe ishrane članova poljoprivrednih gazdinstava, a delom se plasira direktno potroša čima mleka i mle čnih proizvoda putem razli čitih kanala direktne prodaje. Osim ja čanja formalnog tržišta mleka u prethodnom periodu došlo je i do pomeranja konkurentskih pozicija mlekara, kao i do odre đenih izmena u strukturi njihove prerade mleka u mle čne proizvode. Materijal i metodi Analiza strukturnih promena na tržištu mle čnih proizvoda u Srbiji je sprovedena u dva segmenta, koriš ćenjem dve grupe podataka. U prvom segmentu analizirana je struktura i promene tokom poslednjih godina na formalnom tržištu mleka, koje čini industrijska prerada mleka. Drugi segment tržišta mleka i mle čnih proizvoda je proizvodnja za sopstvene potrebe i direktnu prodaju potroša čima. Cilj istraživanja je bio da se identifikuju promene i trendovi u proizvodnji i ponudi mle čnih proizvoda na nacionalnom tržištu. U radu su koriš ćeni metodi ankete i polu- strukturiranog intervjua sa predstavnicima prera điva čke industrije mleka, i poljoprivrednicima 1 Rad je deo istraživanja u okviru projekta „Funkcionalni fermentisani mle čni napitak – nova tehnologija“, evidencioni broj TR-20008A, koji finansira Ministarstvo za nauku i tehnološki razvoj Republike Srbije. Rad je objavljen u časopisu Prehrambena industrija – Mleko i mle čni proizvodi, vol. 20, broj 1-2, strana 7-12, Savez hemi čara i tehnologa, Tehnološki fakultet Novi Sad, 2009. godine, ISSN 0353-6564. 1 koji se bave proizvodnjom mleka. Statisti čki podaci prikupljeni su iz više izvora: Republi čki zavod za statistiku Srbije (RZS), Ministarstvo poljoprivrede, šumarstva i vodoprivrede (MPŠV), Svetska prehrambena organizacija (FAO), Eurostat, PU Zajednica sto čarstva, i International farm comparison network – Dairy (IFCN – Dairy). Rezultati i diskusija Proizvodnja mleka u Srbiji je relativno je stabilna i kre će se na godišnjem nivou od 1,53 do 1,6 milijardi litara kravljeg mleka namenjenog ljudskoj ishrani. Kozije i ov čije mleko predstavljaju marginalne proizvode koji čine oko 2% od ukupne proizvodnje mleka u Srbiji. Formalno tržište mleka, koje čini ona koli čina sirovog mleka koja se preradi u industrijskim kapacitetima, ja ča iz godine u godinu. Industrija mleka je u 2008. godini otkupila 825 miliona litara mleka, što čini 53,8% od ukupno proizvedene koli čine. Struktura prera điva čke industrije mleka može se analizirati u tri segmenta: velike mlekare, mlekare srednjeg kapaciteta i mini mlekare. Pojedina čni udeli (tabela 1) ova tri segmenta na formalnom tržištu sirovog mleka, u 2008. godini, iznosili su redom: 60,9%, 20,8% i 18,3%. U posmatranom trogodišnjem periodu, velike i mlekare srednjeg kapaciteta su pove ćale otkupljene koli čine mleka u apsolutnom iznosu, dok je otkup mleka od strane mini mlekara ostao na istom nivou. Pri tome, relativni udeli, pomenutih grupa mlekara, na formalnom tržištu sirovog mleka kretali su se u nešto druga čijem pravcu. Tabela 1. STRUKTURA FORMALNOG TRŽIŠTA MLEKA U SRBIJI U PERIODU 2006 – 2008. GODINE Table 1. FORMAL MILK MARKET STRUCTURE IN SERBIA IN PERIOD 2006 – 2008 Isporu čeno mlekarama (u litrima) / Tržišni udeo (u %)/ Mlekara Milk delivered (in liters) Market share (%) 2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008 Mlekare u sastavu: / Dairies in structure of: 350.374.975 361.959.880 354.904.468 47,4 44,4 43,0 DANUBE FOODS GROUP BV 1. - IMLEK, IMPAZ i 230.587.554 243.462.640 296.928.067 31,2 29,9 36,0 Zemunska mlekara - Novosadska mlekara 60.697.564 61.205.680 * 8,2 7,5 * - Mlekara Subotica 59.089.857 57.291.560 57.976.401 8,0 7,0 7,0 2. „Mlekara Šabac“, Šabac 43.187.653 56.945.950 67.627.936 5,8 7,0 8,2 3. „Somboled“, Sombor 40.256.713 43.665.250 52.212.275 5,4 5,4 6,3 4. „Mlekoprodukt“, Zrenjanin 28.977.976 28.720.080 27.646.386 3,9 3,5 3,4 Mlekare sa kapacitetom od 5 to 20 miliona litara prera đenog 5. 126.563.765 158.097.080 171.970.915 17,1 19,4 20,8 mleka / Middle size dairies 5 to 20 million l of processed milk Mini mlekare sa kapacitetom manjim od 5 miliona litara 6. prera đenog mleka / Small size 150.584.654 165.139.540 150.736.043 20,4 20,3 18,3 dairies less than 5 million l of processed milk UKUPNO / TOTAL: 739.945.736 814.527.780 825.098.022 100,0 100,0 100,0 1Izvor / Source: MPŠV Registar * Krajem 2007. godine Imlek je pripojio Novosadsku mlekaru / Imlek takeover Novosadska Dairy in 2007 2 Polaze ći od toga da je, osim profitabilnosti, jedan od najčeš ćih na čina merenja konkurentnosti na nivou privrednih subjekata ostvareni tržišni udeo (Jeffrey et.al. 2001), mogu će je izvu ći odre đene indikativne zaklju čke o promeni nivoa konkurentnosti pojedinih mlekara, kao i grupa mlekara. Imaju ći u vidu takav kriterijum, proizilazi da je nivo konkurentnosti u posmatranom trogodišnjem periodu najviše unapredila „Mlekara Šabac“, koja je tržišni udeo pove ćala sa 5,8 na 8,2%. Zatim sledi „Somboled“ koji je pove ćao svoj tržišni udeo sa 5,4 na 6,3% u istom periodu. Mlekare u sastavu „Danube foods group BV“, iako su smanjile svoj udeo na tržištu sirovog mleka sa 47,4 na 43%, imaju i dalje dominantnu konkurentsku poziciju. Smanjenje njihovog tržišnog udela je klju čni razlog zbog čega je tržišni udeo 5 najve ćih mlekara smanjen u trogodišnjem periodu sa 62,5 na 60,9%. Mlekare srednjeg kapaciteta su poboljšale svoju konkurentsku poziciju pove ćavši svoj udeo u otkupu sirovog mleka sa 17,1 na 20,8%. Mini mlekare, čiji se ukupan broj smanjio sa 188 na 171, u poslednje tri godine, smanjile su udeo u otkupu mleka sa 20,4 na 18,3%. Osim promena na tržištu otkupa sirovog mleka, došlo je i do okrupnjavanja kapaciteta prerade. Imlek je krajem 2007. godine pripojio Novosadsku mlekaru. Početkom 2008. godine francuski Bongren koji je vlasnik „Mlekoprodukta“ iz Zrenjanina kupio je „Kikindsku industriju mleka“, koja se nalazi u grupi mlekara srednjeg kapaciteta, sa otkupom od 13 miliona litara mleka i tako učvrstio svoju poziciju na 5. mestu po kapacitetima prerade, odnosno na 4. mestu po vlasništvu. Tabela 2. PRERADA MLEKA U 2008. GODINI NA FORMALNOM TRŽIŠTU SRBIJE Table 2. PROCESSING OF RAW MILK IN SERBIAN DAIRY INDUSTRY IN 2008 Fermentisani Sirevi, pavlaka, Pasterizovano mle čni namazi, maslac, mleko / UHT mleko / Ukupno: proizvodi / mleko u prahu i dr./ Pasteurized UHT milk Total: Fermented Cheese, cream, milk milk products butter, SMP, WMP, (U hiljadama litara) / (In thousands liters) Velike mlekare (5)* / 185.617 85.381 140.039 91.355 502.391 Big dairies Mlekare srednjeg kapaciteta (17)* / 47.820 32.697 2.316 89.138 171.971 Middle capacities dairies Mini mlekare (171)*/ 52.758 22.610 0 75.368 150.736 Small size dairies Ukupno / Total: 286.194 140.689 142.355 255.861 825.098 Udeli pojedinih grupa proizvoda u ukupnoj preradi / Shares in total production Velike mlekare (5)* / 36,95% 17,00% 27,87% 18,18% 100,00% Big dairies Mlekare srednjeg kapaciteta (17)* / 27,81% 19,01% 1,35% 51,83% 100,00% Middle capacities dairies Mini mlekare (171)*/ 35,00% 15,00% 0,00% 50,00% 100,00% Small size dairies Ukupno / Total: 34,69% 17,05% 17,25% 31,01% 100,00% * Broj mlekara u grupi / Number of dairies in the group 3 Struktura prerade mleka, prikazana u tabeli 2, ukazuje na razli čitu orijentisanost pojedinih grupa mlekara na pojedine tipove mle čnih proizvoda. Radi pojednostavljenja analize ukupne otkupljene koli čine sirovog mleka su alocirane na četiri grupe mle čnih proizvoda: fermentisani mle čni proizvodi, pasterizovano mleko, UHT mleko i ostali mle čni proizvodi. Mlekare velikih kapaciteta (Imlek, Mlekara Subotica, Mlekara Šabac, Somboled i Mlekoprodukt) su u proseku orijentisane prvenstveno na proizvodnju te čnih mle čnih proizvoda i to: fermentisanih mle čnih proizvoda, UHT i pasterizovanog mleka, dok je proizvodnja čvrstih mle čnih proizvoda (razne vrste sireva, pavlaka, namazi, maslac, mleko u prahu i dr.) u drugom planu. Od svih pomenutih mlekara jedino je Mlekoprodukt zadržao istu proizvodnu strukturu, koja je usmerena na proizvodnju sireva.
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