AXIA Research Bloomberg
Greece-Daily Note
September 28, 2021
Headlines Athens General Index
Macroeconomic News
Alternate Minster of Finance, Theodoros Skylakakis said that the government’s recently upward revised estimate for GDP growth of 5.9% in 2021 is “extremely conservative”, while he noted that for 3Q:21 it seems like the economy is doing very well and he added that the government’s new estimates will be presented along with the Draft 2022 Budget on October 4th.
The Hellenic Fiscal Council in its recent report notes that the upward revision by the Greek government of the 2021 GDP growth estimate to 5.9% vs. 3.6% before is realistic, while the Council does not rule out the possibility of a V-shaped recovery. On the other hand the Council notes the increase of arrears of the State that settled at EUR 2.3bn in July from EUR 1.84bn at end-2020 (total arrears).
According to the data available for the execution of the State Budget on a modified cash basis, the State Budget balance for the period of January - August of 2021 presented a deficit of EUR 10.519bn, against a target of a deficit of EUR 13.487bn that has been incorporated for the same period of 2021 in the MTFS 2022-2025 close daily % Ytd % explanatory report. The State Budget Primary Balance amounted to a deficit of EUR 6.381bn, against the Athens General 875.43 0.27% 8.21% primary deficit target of EUR 9.405bn. Market Turnover (EURm) 56.50 -42.60% Market Cap (EURbn) 63.23 According to the Bank of Greece the annual growth rate of total credit extended to the domestic economy Market Cap / GDP* 37.53% stood at 13.5% in August 2021, compared with 13.8% in the previous month. The annual growth rate of credit *2020
to the private sector decreased to 0.8% in August compared with 1.2% in the previous month as the monthly net flow of credit was negative by EUR 337m, compared with a negative net flow of EUR 532m in the previous FTSE ASE movers (last trading day) month. In respect to corporations, the monthly net flow of credit was negative by EUR 190m, compared with a negative net flow of EUR 313m in the previous month, while the annual growth rate decreased to 3.7%, TOP compared with 4.4% in the previous month. Ellaktor S.A. 3.28% The annual growth rate of total deposits stood at 11.9%, compared with 11.0% in the previous month. Piraeus Financial Holdings 2.41% Deposits placed by the private sector increased by EUR 1.480bn in August 2021, compared with an increase of EurobankS.A. Ergasias 2.34% EUR 1.840bn in the previous month. Deposits placed by the private sector increased by EUR 1.480bn, HellenicServices Petroleumand Holdings S.A. S.A. 2.14% compared with an increase of EUR 1.840bn in the previous month; the annual growth rate increased to 13.9% Alpha Services and 1.54% from 13.2% in the previous month. Total deposits of corporations and households have now reached a total Holdings S.A. BOTTOM of EUR 173.14bn (summer 2019: EUR 137bn), as they have grown by cEUR 10bn since the beginning of the Marfin Investment Group -4.36% year. HoldingsViohalco S.A. -2.47% GEK TERNA Holdings, Real -1.97% Corporate News TitanEstate, Cement Construction S.A. -1.96% GreekInternational Organization S.A. of -1.72% BriQ properties announced 1H21 results with rental income of EUR 2.57m increasing by 45.7% y-o-y, adj. Football Prognostics S.A. EBITDA (excl. revaluations profit) up 44.2% y-o-y to EUR 1.66m (reported EUR 3.42m) and adj. net income of EUR 1.25m up 64.1% y-o-y (reported EUR 1.07m). The increase in the top line was achieved despite the FTSE ASE Ratios* impact in revenues (by EUR0.951m in 1H21 compared to EUR0.374m in H1:20) due to the measures imposed FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 because of the pandemic. The increase of revenues was mainly driven by the incorporation of revenue from new investments in logistics in the previous twelve-month period. The value of the portfolio on June 30, P/E 15.5 12.1 10.0 2021 was distributed by 47% in logistics, 30% offices, 17% hotels and 6% other uses. To this end, as of 1H21 EV/EBITDA 8.0 6.0 5.7 the group's portfolio consisted of 28 properties with total value of EUR 114.2m compared to EUR 106m as P/BV 1.5 1.3 1.2 of Dec’20 and EUR 71.7m as of Jun’20. Cash and cash equivalents on June 30, 2021, amounted to EUR 3.36m EV/Sales 1.8 1.6 1.5 Dividend yield 4.0% 4.2% 4.4% compared to EUR 2.07m on December 31, 2020. As of June 30, 2021, the group's loan obligations amounted *S&P Capital IQ to EUR 26.23m compared to EUR 18.3m as of December 31, 2020. Regarding the key metrics, the LTV at end-March 2021 was at 23.0%, the NAV at EUR 84.28m and the NAV per share at EUR2.38 vs. EUR2.37 at end-2020.
Piraeus Port Authority to release 1H21 results today, after the close of the ATHEX market.
Terna Energy and Gek Terna announced that their 1H21 results will be release on Thursday, September 30, 2021, after the closing of the trading session of the ASE.
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Weekly calendar
Tuesday, 28 September: Piraeus Port Authority (1H21 results) Wednesday, 29 September: Lamda Development (1H21 results), ADMIE Holding (1H21 results), Road Freight Transport Statistics (1Q21) Thursday, 30 September: Lamda Development (analyst call), Trastor REIC (1H21 results), Athens Water/EYDAP (1H21 results/ analyst call), Producer Price Index in Industry (Aug’21), Services Producer Price Indices (2Q21), Turnover Index in Retail Trade (Jul’21), Prodea Investments (1H21 results), Gek Want to know more about AXIA Research? Terna (1H21 results), Terna Energy (1H21 results) Contact us now
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Greek Economy – State Budget Execution (Aug’21)
Fact: According to the data available for the execution of the State Budget on a modified cash basis, the State Budget balance for the period of January – August of 2021 presented a deficit of EUR 10.519bn, against a target of a deficit of EUR 13.487bn that has been incorporated for the same period of 2021 in the MTFS 2022-2025 explanatory report. The State Budget Primary Balance amounted to a deficit of EUR 6.381bn, against the primary deficit target of EUR 9.405bn. The overperfromance is mainly attributed to the advance payment of EUR 2.310bn from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and the ANFAs receipts in July 2021 that amounted to EUR 644m.
Assessment: State Budget net revenues amounted to EUR 34.686bn, showing an overperformance of EUR 2.454bn or 7.6% against the target of the corresponding period which is included in the MTFS 2022-2025 explanatory report. However, the increased 8-months revenues, especially in the category “Transfers” include: (a) the advance payment of EUR 2.310bn from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) collected in August 2021 and (b) the ANFAs receipts in July 2021 amounted to EUR 644m. The advance payment from RRF was initially estimated to be received in September 2021, whereas the ANFAs revenues were not projected in the MTFS 2022-2025. Accordingly, with the exception of the above amounts, the net revenues are showing an underperformance of EUR 500m or 1.6% against of the target included in the MTFS 2022-2025, mainly due to the decreased PIB revenues and to the fact that the amount collected in July 2021 for the Ellinikon privatization, was recorded as a financial transaction (sell of shares) instead of being recorded in the category “Sales of fixed assets” in which it was initially estimated to be received (non-financial transaction). State Budget total revenues amounted to EUR 37.510bn, EUR 2.365bn higher or 6.7% against the target. Tax revenues amounted to EUR 28.716bn, EUR 183m or 0.6% lower against the target which is included in the MTFS 2022-2025 explanatory report. Particularly, during the period of January – August 2021 there was an increase against the target in the following main revenue categories: a) VAT on other goods and services by EUR 76m or 0.8%, b) Personal Income Tax (PIT) by EUR 83m or 1.3%, c) Transfers by EUR 2.849bn or 72.8% as mentioned above. During the same period there was an underperformance against the target in the following main revenue categories: a) Corporate Income Tax (CIT) by EUR 307m or 19.9%, b) Other current taxes by EUR 175m or 11.5%, c) Sales of fixed assets by EUR 302m or 98.7%, because the sale of Ellinikon was recorded as a financial transaction, as mentioned above. Tax refunds amounted to EUR 2.824bn, EUR 89m lower than the target (EUR 2.912bn), while PIB revenues amounted EUR 3.404bn, EUR 292m lower than the target.
Particularly, in August 2021 the State Budget net revenues amounted to EUR 7.717bn, EUR 3.090bn higher than the monthly target mainly due to the RRF payment, as well as the increased PIB revenues. State Budget total revenues amounted to EUR 8.049bn, EUR 3.017bn higher than the monthly target. Tax revenues amounted to EUR 4.342bn, only EUR 83m or 1.9% lower against the target, due to the extension granted for the submission of tax returns to natural and legal persons and the consequent extension to the payment of the first and second instalments until 17 September 2021. PIB revenues amounted to EUR 1.227bn, increased by EUR 735m against the monthly target.
State Budget expenditures for the period of January – August of 2021 amounted to EUR 45.205bn, EUR 514m or 1.1% lower than the target (EUR 45.719bn), which is included in the MTFS 2022-2025 explanatory report. The under execution of the Ordinary Budget by EUR 215m is mainly due to the time differentiation of the grants to SSFs by EUR 347m. Full budget execution is expected in this category. On the contrary, payments of the military procurement of Ministry of Defence (Purchases of Fixed Assets category), were increased by EUR 760m in comparison to the initial target. PIB and Recovery & Resilience Facility presented decreased payments by EUR 299m or 5.0% in comparison to the target. It is noted that the RRF expenditure is realized, following procedures similar to those of PIB national part.
State Budget expenditures for the period of January – August of 2021 were increased compared to the respective period of 2020 by EUR 5.474bn, mainly due the increased payments for COVID-19 measures and the increased military procurement of the ordinary budget.
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Corporate & Macro Calendar
MACROS Event Reference Period Release Date Road Freight Transport Statistics 1Q21 29/09/21 Producer Price Index in Industry Aug’21 30/09/21 Services Producer Price Indices 2Q21 30/09/21 Turnover Index in Retail Trade Jul’21 30/09/21 Interest rates on Bank Deposits and Loans Aug’21 01/10/21 Commercial Transactions of Greece Aug-21 08/10/21 Consumer Price Index Sep-21 08/10/21 Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices Sep-21 08/10/21 Industrial Production Index Aug-21 08/10/21 Issuing of Motor Vehicle Licences Sep-21 11/10/21 Building Activity Survey Jul-21 12/10/21 Import Price Index in Industry Aug-21 14/10/21 Labour Force Survey (monthly estimates) Jul-21 14/10/21 Evolution of Turnover of Enterprises in Accommodation and Food Service Aug-21 15/10/21 Activities Evolution of Turnover of Enterprises in Retail Trade Aug-21 15/10/21 Evolution of Turnover of Enterprises Aug-21 15/10/21 Turnover Index in Industry Aug-21 20/10/21 Balance of Payments Aug’21 21/10/21 Developments in the balance of travel services Aug’21 22/10/21 S&P credit rating update 22/10/21 Bank Lending Survey 3Q21 26/10/21 Producer Price Index in Industry Sep-21 29/10/21 Turnover Index in Retail Trade Aug-21 29/10/21
CORPORATES Company Event Date Piraeus Port Authority 1H21 results 28/09/21 Lamda Development 1H21 results 29/09/21 ADMIE Holding 1H21 results 29/09/21 Lamda Development analyst call 30/09/21 Trastor REIC 1H21 results 30/09/21 Athens Water (EYDAP) 1H21 results/ analyst call 30/09/21 Prodea Investments 1H21 results 30/09/21 Gek Terna 1H21 results 30/09/21 Terna Energy 1H21 results 30/09/21
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