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Greece-Daily Note AXIA Research Bloomberg <AXVA> Greece-Daily Note September 28, 2021 Headlines Athens General Index Macroeconomic News Alternate Minster of Finance, Theodoros Skylakakis said that the government’s recently upward revised estimate for GDP growth of 5.9% in 2021 is “extremely conservative”, while he noted that for 3Q:21 it seems like the economy is doing very well and he added that the government’s new estimates will be presented along with the Draft 2022 Budget on October 4th. The Hellenic Fiscal Council in its recent report notes that the upward revision by the Greek government of the 2021 GDP growth estimate to 5.9% vs. 3.6% before is realistic, while the Council does not rule out the possibility of a V-shaped recovery. On the other hand the Council notes the increase of arrears of the State that settled at EUR 2.3bn in July from EUR 1.84bn at end-2020 (total arrears). According to the data available for the execution of the State Budget on a modified cash basis, the State Budget balance for the period of January - August of 2021 presented a deficit of EUR 10.519bn, against a target of a deficit of EUR 13.487bn that has been incorporated for the same period of 2021 in the MTFS 2022-2025 close daily % Ytd % explanatory report. The State Budget Primary Balance amounted to a deficit of EUR 6.381bn, against the Athens General 875.43 0.27% 8.21% primary deficit target of EUR 9.405bn. Market Turnover (EURm) 56.50 -42.60% Market Cap (EURbn) 63.23 According to the Bank of Greece the annual growth rate of total credit extended to the domestic economy Market Cap / GDP* 37.53% stood at 13.5% in August 2021, compared with 13.8% in the previous month. The annual growth rate of credit *2020 to the private sector decreased to 0.8% in August compared with 1.2% in the previous month as the monthly net flow of credit was negative by EUR 337m, compared with a negative net flow of EUR 532m in the previous FTSE ASE movers (last trading day) month. In respect to corporations, the monthly net flow of credit was negative by EUR 190m, compared with a negative net flow of EUR 313m in the previous month, while the annual growth rate decreased to 3.7%, TOP compared with 4.4% in the previous month. Ellaktor S.A. 3.28% The annual growth rate of total deposits stood at 11.9%, compared with 11.0% in the previous month. Piraeus Financial Holdings 2.41% Deposits placed by the private sector increased by EUR 1.480bn in August 2021, compared with an increase of EurobankS.A. Ergasias 2.34% EUR 1.840bn in the previous month. Deposits placed by the private sector increased by EUR 1.480bn, HellenicServices Petroleumand Holdings S.A. S.A. 2.14% compared with an increase of EUR 1.840bn in the previous month; the annual growth rate increased to 13.9% Alpha Services and 1.54% from 13.2% in the previous month. Total deposits of corporations and households have now reached a total Holdings S.A. BOTTOM of EUR 173.14bn (summer 2019: EUR 137bn), as they have grown by cEUR 10bn since the beginning of the Marfin Investment Group -4.36% year. HoldingsViohalco S.A. -2.47% GEK TERNA Holdings, Real -1.97% Corporate News TitanEstate, Cement Construction S.A. -1.96% GreekInternational Organization S.A. of -1.72% BriQ properties announced 1H21 results with rental income of EUR 2.57m increasing by 45.7% y-o-y, adj. Football Prognostics S.A. EBITDA (excl. revaluations profit) up 44.2% y-o-y to EUR 1.66m (reported EUR 3.42m) and adj. net income of EUR 1.25m up 64.1% y-o-y (reported EUR 1.07m). The increase in the top line was achieved despite the FTSE ASE Ratios* impact in revenues (by EUR0.951m in 1H21 compared to EUR0.374m in H1:20) due to the measures imposed FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 because of the pandemic. The increase of revenues was mainly driven by the incorporation of revenue from new investments in logistics in the previous twelve-month period. The value of the portfolio on June 30, P/E 15.5 12.1 10.0 2021 was distributed by 47% in logistics, 30% offices, 17% hotels and 6% other uses. To this end, as of 1H21 EV/EBITDA 8.0 6.0 5.7 the group's portfolio consisted of 28 properties with total value of EUR 114.2m compared to EUR 106m as P/BV 1.5 1.3 1.2 of Dec’20 and EUR 71.7m as of Jun’20. Cash and cash equivalents on June 30, 2021, amounted to EUR 3.36m EV/Sales 1.8 1.6 1.5 Dividend yield 4.0% 4.2% 4.4% compared to EUR 2.07m on December 31, 2020. As of June 30, 2021, the group's loan obligations amounted *S&P Capital IQ to EUR 26.23m compared to EUR 18.3m as of December 31, 2020. Regarding the key metrics, the LTV at end-March 2021 was at 23.0%, the NAV at EUR 84.28m and the NAV per share at EUR2.38 vs. EUR2.37 at end-2020. Piraeus Port Authority to release 1H21 results today, after the close of the ATHEX market. Terna Energy and Gek Terna announced that their 1H21 results will be release on Thursday, September 30, 2021, after the closing of the trading session of the ASE. Please continue overleaf…. Weekly calendar Tuesday, 28 September: Piraeus Port Authority (1H21 results) Wednesday, 29 September: Lamda Development (1H21 results), ADMIE Holding (1H21 results), Road Freight Transport Statistics (1Q21) Thursday, 30 September: Lamda Development (analyst call), Trastor REIC (1H21 results), Athens Water/EYDAP (1H21 results/ analyst call), Producer Price Index in Industry (Aug’21), Services Producer Price Indices (2Q21), Turnover Index in Retail Trade (Jul’21), Prodea Investments (1H21 results), Gek Want to know more about AXIA Research? Terna (1H21 results), Terna Energy (1H21 results) Contact us now AXIA Ventures Group – 4 Vas. Sofias Ave., 10674 Athens Greece, Tel: +30 210 7414400, Fax: +30 210 7414449, Website: www.axiavg.com Please refer to the last page for disclosures and analyst certification AXIA Research Greek Economy – State Budget Execution (Aug’21) Fact: According to the data available for the execution of the State Budget on a modified cash basis, the State Budget balance for the period of January – August of 2021 presented a deficit of EUR 10.519bn, against a target of a deficit of EUR 13.487bn that has been incorporated for the same period of 2021 in the MTFS 2022-2025 explanatory report. The State Budget Primary Balance amounted to a deficit of EUR 6.381bn, against the primary deficit target of EUR 9.405bn. The overperfromance is mainly attributed to the advance payment of EUR 2.310bn from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and the ANFAs receipts in July 2021 that amounted to EUR 644m. Assessment: State Budget net revenues amounted to EUR 34.686bn, showing an overperformance of EUR 2.454bn or 7.6% against the target of the corresponding period which is included in the MTFS 2022-2025 explanatory report. However, the increased 8-months revenues, especially in the category “Transfers” include: (a) the advance payment of EUR 2.310bn from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) collected in August 2021 and (b) the ANFAs receipts in July 2021 amounted to EUR 644m. The advance payment from RRF was initially estimated to be received in September 2021, whereas the ANFAs revenues were not projected in the MTFS 2022-2025. Accordingly, with the exception of the above amounts, the net revenues are showing an underperformance of EUR 500m or 1.6% against of the target included in the MTFS 2022-2025, mainly due to the decreased PIB revenues and to the fact that the amount collected in July 2021 for the Ellinikon privatization, was recorded as a financial transaction (sell of shares) instead of being recorded in the category “Sales of fixed assets” in which it was initially estimated to be received (non-financial transaction). State Budget total revenues amounted to EUR 37.510bn, EUR 2.365bn higher or 6.7% against the target. Tax revenues amounted to EUR 28.716bn, EUR 183m or 0.6% lower against the target which is included in the MTFS 2022-2025 explanatory report. Particularly, during the period of January – August 2021 there was an increase against the target in the following main revenue categories: a) VAT on other goods and services by EUR 76m or 0.8%, b) Personal Income Tax (PIT) by EUR 83m or 1.3%, c) Transfers by EUR 2.849bn or 72.8% as mentioned above. During the same period there was an underperformance against the target in the following main revenue categories: a) Corporate Income Tax (CIT) by EUR 307m or 19.9%, b) Other current taxes by EUR 175m or 11.5%, c) Sales of fixed assets by EUR 302m or 98.7%, because the sale of Ellinikon was recorded as a financial transaction, as mentioned above. Tax refunds amounted to EUR 2.824bn, EUR 89m lower than the target (EUR 2.912bn), while PIB revenues amounted EUR 3.404bn, EUR 292m lower than the target. Particularly, in August 2021 the State Budget net revenues amounted to EUR 7.717bn, EUR 3.090bn higher than the monthly target mainly due to the RRF payment, as well as the increased PIB revenues.
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