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European Neighbourhood Policy Two Years On: Time Indeed for an ‘ENP Plus’ Michael Emerson Gergana Noutcheva Nicu Popescu

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European Neighbourhood Policy Two Years On: Time Indeed for an ‘ENP Plus’ Michael Emerson Gergana Noutcheva Nicu Popescu No. 126 y March 2007 European Neighbourhood Policy Two Years on: Time indeed for an ‘ENP plus’ Michael Emerson Gergana Noutcheva Nicu Popescu Abstract Conceived in 2003 and 2004, the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) has now had two years of operational experience. This initial experience has seen a sorting out of the partner states, with Action Plans drawn up for five Eastern and seven Southern partner states. We would distinguish among these 12 states between the ‘willing’ and the ‘passive’; and among the other partner states without Action Plans between the ‘reluctant’ and the ‘excluded’. These groupings should be the basis for stronger differentiation in the policy packages offered by the EU. In general the political context now calls for a strong reinforcement of the ENP, since the benign situation of 2004 has given way now to a more menacing one, given threats to European values bearing down on the EU from all sides. The EU institutions recognise these needs in principle, and last December the Commission advanced many valuable proposals. ‘ENP plus’ is a term being used by the current German Presidency, without this yet being defined in a public document in operational detail. In our view, ‘ENP plus’ could mean: o Plus an advanced association model for the able and willing partner states, o Plus a strengthening of regional-multilateral schemes, o Plus an upgrading of the standard instruments being deployed, and o Plus the offer of an ‘ENP light’ model for difficult states or non-recognised entities. More precisely we suggest a 15-point programme for achieving a qualitative upgrading of the ENP, to give it strategic leverage, rather than allowing it to be seen as a poor cousin of the enlargement process. Michael Emerson is Senior Research Fellow at CEPS. Gergana Noutcheva and Nicu Popescu are Associate Research Fellows at CEPS. The authors thank their colleagues Hakim Darbouche, Bohdana Dimitrovova, Georgi Kamov, Licinia Simao and Fabrizio Tassinari for their research assistance and valuable contributions. CEPS Policy Briefs present concise, policy-oriented analyses of topical issues in European affairs, with the aim of interjecting the views of CEPS researchers into the policy-making process in a timely fashion. Unless otherwise indicated, the views expressed are attributable only to the authors in a personal capacity and not to any institution with which they are associated. ISBN-13: 978-92-9070-706-7 Available for free downloading from the CEPS website (http://www.ceps.eu) y © CEPS 2007 Contents 1. Summary & Conclusions........................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Sources of potential ‘pluses’ – A 15-point programme ................................................ 2 1.2 Structuring ‘ENP plus’.................................................................................................. 4 1.3 ‘ENP plus’ as a strategic necessity ............................................................................... 5 2. Paradigms and strategic imperatives....................................................................................... 6 2.1 European discourse and paradigms............................................................................... 6 2.2 The new strategic imperatives....................................................................................... 7 3. State of play among the partner states .................................................................................... 9 4. A 15-point programme on selected policy issues ................................................................. 12 Point 1. The optimal bilateral-regional-multilateral balance ................................................ 12 Point 2. Advanced association (or otherwise named) agreements........................................ 12 Point 3. Institutional issues...................................................................................................13 Point 4. The membership perspective question .................................................................... 14 Point 5. Democracy promotion............................................................................................. 15 Point 6. Deep free trade – bilateral ....................................................................................... 15 Point 7. Basic free trade – multilateral ................................................................................. 16 Point 8. Energy and transport networks................................................................................ 17 Point 9. Movement of people................................................................................................ 18 Point 10. Association with foreign and security policy ........................................................ 19 Point 11. Crisis management ................................................................................................ 19 Point 12. ‘ENP light’ for difficult partner states and entities ............................................... 20 Point 13. The Black Sea and beyond .................................................................................... 21 Point 14. Budget resources ................................................................................................... 22 Point 15. Investment and coordination with the IFIs............................................................ 23 Annex .......................................................................................................................................... 24 European Neighbourhood Policy Two Years on: Time indeed for an ‘ENP plus’ MICHAEL EMERSON, GERGANA NOUTCHEVA AND NICU POPESCU CEPS Policy Brief No. 126/March 2007 1. Summary & Conclusions After two years, calls for an ‘ENP plus’ The European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), conceived in 20031 and 20042, has now had two years of operational experience in 2005 and 2006. After these two years of operations, the Commission and the Council agree that the ENP needs to be strengthened, hence the current discussion around the idea of an ‘ENP plus’. ‘ENP plus’ is a term being used by the current German Presidency.3 For its part, the Commission made comprehensive proposals in December 2006, which contain a rich agenda for strengthening the ENP.4 There are many questions about turning these proposals into practice, and in some respects we would want to go further. The general direction is positive, however, and could enable the ENP to move into a qualitatively higher gear. Concretely, we identify a 15-point programme for an upgraded ENP to give it strategic leverage, rather than be perceived as a poor cousin of the enlargement process. These points combine things that the EU is doing, is proposing to do or should be proposing to do. A sorting of the partner states The initial experience of the ENP has seen a sorting out of the partner states, with Action Plans drawn up for five Eastern and seven Southern partner states. A majority of these states are actually looking to the EU for more strategic content than has so far been provided by the ENP. However, among the Action Plan states, we would distinguish between the ‘willing’ and the ‘passive’. Among those without Action Plans we would distinguish between the ‘reluctant’ and the ‘excluded’. These groupings could serve as the basis for a stronger differentiation in the policy packages offered by the EU, and for stronger incentives for partner states to advance up this hierarchy. The present report identifies the areas or measures that could be the source of potential ‘pluses’. These are now summarised, followed by a structuring of them according to categories of partner states and regions. 1 European Commission, Communication on Wider Europe: A New Framework for Relations with our Eastern and Southern Neighbours, COM(2003)104 final, 11 March 2003. 2 European Commission, Communication on European Neighbourhood Policy – Strategy Paper, COM(2004)373 final, 12 May 2004. 3 The most detailed public account of German ideas appears in Franz-Walter-Steinmeier, “Interaction and Integration – A new phase of Ostpolitik: globalisation demands interaction, not isolationism”, Internationale Politik, Spring 2007, DGAP, Berlin. 4 European Commission, Communication on Strengthening the European Neighbourhood Policy, COM(2006)726 final, 4 December 2006. These proposals will presumably be the basis for discussions at an informal meeting of EU Foreign Ministers scheduled for the end of March 2007, with the Council Presidency due to draw conclusions in June. | 1 2 | EMERSON, NOUTCHEVA & POPESCU 1.1 Sources of potential ‘pluses’ – A 15-point programme The bilateral-regional-multilateral balance The bringing together of East and South in a single ENP initially saw anomalies: to the East the ENP has been so far entirely bilateral, whereas the 10-year old Barcelona process has been largely multilateral. A better synthesis seems now to emerge, however, with the ENP having added a sorely lacking bilateral dimension for the South, and with multilateral initiatives now developing for the East (Black Sea, energy and transport networks). In the trade area, a strategic multilateral dimension for East and South together can be envisaged (see further below). Advanced association (or otherwise named) agreements The Commission could well outline now a general model for an advanced association agreement for the partner states willing and able to achieve high levels of political convergence and economic integration
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