S.Afr.J.Bus.Manage.2013,44(3) 47 The determinants of box office performance in the film industry revisited N.A. Pangarker and E.v.d.M. Smit* University of Stellenbosch Business School, PO Box 610, Bellville 7535, Republic of South Africa
[email protected] The film industry is a significant player in the global economy. It calls for significant up-front investments with the result that analysts, studios and investors alike are interested in predicting box office success as part of financial risk management. This study utilises global box office revenue in assessing the effects of eight explanatory variables, identified from previous studies, in the explanation of revenue. Nearly three decades after the seminal study the extension of the original methodology to global rather than USA data, still confirms production cost, releases by major studios, award nominations and sequels to successful films as the key drivers of global box office revenue. The evidence further suggests that in the modern global context, the film genre, the release date around holidays and positive critical reviews play a less significant role than in the original investigation. *To whom all correspondence should be addressed. Introduction proxy for the success of films. All previous studies sourced have used domestic box office data for the USA market The film industry is a significant contributor to the world only. economy. Worldwide box office revenue for all films The article is structured as follows. Section 2 consists of a released during 2010 was estimated at $31.8 billion. In the literature review focusing on existing research examining United States of America (USA) alone, the industry is a which variables, if any, determine the box office success of major employer, supporting over 2.2 million jobs, and films.