Economics-Driven Simulation of the Friant Division of the Central Valley Project, California

Economics-Driven Simulation of the Friant Division of the Central Valley Project, California BY MARK RANDALL LEU B.S. (Colorado School of Mines) 1993 THESIS Submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE in CIVIL ENGINEERING in the OFFICE OF GRADUATE STUDIES of the UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA DAVIS Approved: ______________________________________ ______________________________________ ______________________________________ Committee in Charge 2001 i TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... 1 I. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 2 II. FRIANT DIVISION BACKGROUND .....................................................................6 Historical Background of Irrigation in the Friant Service Area...................................... 6 Development of the Central Valley Project’s Friant Division........................................ 6 Friant Division Infrastructure.......................................................................................... 7 San Joaquin Basin and Friant Division Agriculture Background ................................. 11 Friant Division Pricing Structure and Conjunctive Use................................................ 12 Friant Division Operations............................................................................................ 16 Upper San Joaquin Reservoir Operations ..................................................................... 18 Non-Friant Surface Water Sources ............................................................................... 18 Cross Valley Canal Exchange....................................................................................... 19 Friant Contractor Summary........................................................................................... 20 Friant Division Water Issues......................................................................................... 22 Central Valley Project Improvement Act.................................................................. 22 San Joaquin River Restoration .................................................................................. 24 Groundwater Overdraft ............................................................................................. 25 Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and CALFED .......................................................... 26 Transfers Out of the Friant Service Area .................................................................. 27 III. MODEL OBJECTIVES AND APPROACH ........................................................ 29 Steps of Developing the FREDSIM Model .................................................................. 29 Model Approach............................................................................................................ 30 FREDSIM Solver.......................................................................................................... 33 MODSIM Overview.................................................................................................. 33 MODSIM Applications ............................................................................................. 34 Economics-Driven Water Management Simulation ..................................................... 35 IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT....................................................................................37 Friant Division Physical System and Schematic...........................................................38 Reservoir Data and Operations ..................................................................................... 41 Reservoir Data and Operations ..................................................................................... 42 Hydrologic Data............................................................................................................ 43 Groundwater.................................................................................................................. 44 Irrigation District Information....................................................................................... 46 Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Water Demands .......................................... 47 Urban Demands............................................................................................................. 49 River Sink Demands ..................................................................................................... 50 Non-Friant Surface Water Sources ............................................................................... 50 Water Prices .................................................................................................................. 51 Institutional Arrangements and Contracts..................................................................... 53 Cross Valley Canal Exchange....................................................................................... 54 Gravelly Ford Requirement........................................................................................... 55 ii Forecast Data................................................................................................................. 56 Friant Demand Model Representation .......................................................................... 57 MODSIM Notes............................................................................................................ 60 MODSIM Priorities....................................................................................................... 61 V. MODEL RUNS AND PRELIMINARY RESULTS............................................... 63 Preliminary Model Runs ............................................................................................... 63 Individual Contractor Results .......................................................................................64 Water Year Comparison................................................................................................ 68 Friant Division Demand Results ................................................................................... 71 Groundwater Results..................................................................................................... 75 Millerton Lake Results..................................................................................................77 FREDSIM Results.........................................................................................................79 VI. FUTURE MODEL REFINEMENTS AND CONCLUSIONS ............................81 Model Limitations and Refinements............................................................................. 81 Conclusions................................................................................................................... 85 REFERENCES................................................................................................................ 87 APPENDIX A: ACRONYMS ....................................................................................... 91 Contractor Abbreviations.............................................................................................. 91 APPENDIX B: METHODS AND DETAILS............................................................... 93 Agricultural-Economics ................................................................................................ 93 Groundwater Pumping Costs ........................................................................................ 96 APPENDIX C: MODSIM TECHNICAL INFORMATION...................................... 99 MODSIM Notes............................................................................................................ 99 MODSIM Customization..............................................................................................99 Annual Functions of Perl Script ................................................................................ 99 Monthly Functions of Perl Script ............................................................................ 100 FREDSIM Schematic in MODSIM ............................................................................ 101 Preparation for a FREDSIM Model Run .................................................................... 104 Steps for Running FREDSIM ..................................................................................... 104 Model Output .............................................................................................................. 104 iii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1: Vicinity Map: California and the Friant Division ........................................ 10 Figure 3.1: Model Approach Flowchart........................................................................... 32 Figure 4.1a: Friant Division System Schematic............................................................... 40 Figure 4.1b: Friant Division System Schematic (continued)........................................... 40 Figure 4.1b: Friant Division System Schematic (continued)........................................... 41 Figure 4.2: Millerton Lake Storage 1986-1997................................................................ 43 Figure 4.3: Agricultural Value Functions for an Irrigation District................................. 49 Figure 4.4: Sample Schematic for an Agricultural Demand in FREDSIM...................... 59 Figure 4.5: MODSIM Interface with

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