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Radico Khaitan Ltd Radico Khaitan Ltd. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet dolore magna aliquam erat volutpat. Ut wisi enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exerci tation ullamcorper suscipit lobortis nisl ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis autem vel eum iriure dolor in hendrerit in Re-Initiating Coverage vulputate velit esse molestie consequat, vel illum dolore eu feugiat nulla Radico Khaitan Ltd. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet dolore magna aliquam erat volutpat. Ut wisi enim ad minim veniam, O8-March-2021 . quis nostrud exerci tation ullamcorper suscipit lobortis nisl ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis autem vel eum iriure dolor in hendrerit in vulputate velit esse molestie consequat, . vel illum dolore eu feugiat nulla facilisis at vero eros et accumsan et iusto odio dignissim qui blandit praesent luptatum zzril delenit augue duis dolore te feugait nulla facilisi. et iusto odio dignissim qui blandit praesent luptatum zzril delenit augue duis dolore te feugait nulla facilisLorem ipsum dolor sit 1 Radico Khaitan Ltd. Industry LTP Base Case Fair Value Bull Case Fair Value Recommendation Time Horizon Alcobev Rs. 588 Rs. 616 Rs.668 Buy on dips to Rs. 543 – 550 band and add on 477-484 band 2 quarters HDFC Scrip Code RADKHAEQNR Our Take BSE Code 532497 Radico is well placed as an attractive value play in the overall IMFL industry in India with presence in several popular and Semi premium NSE Code RADICO categories. Favorable demographics for the alcohol beverage industry in the form of median age of 26.8 years for India and growing social Bloomberg RDCK:IN acceptability of alcohol beverage consumption are likely to augur well for the industry. Rapid urbanization, increased consumerism, and CMP Mar 05, 2021 588 Equity Capital (cr) 27 adoption of trendier lifestyles are driving vodka sales across smaller towns and cities (largely perceived as a cosmopolitan drink). Vodka is Face Value (Rs) 2 finding increasing acceptance among a large and growing number of young population (especially among female) in the Tier II cities and Eq- Share O/S(cr) 13.4 towns. Radico has a 60% share in the vodka market nationally. Market Cap (Rscr) 7852 Book Value (Rs) 113.9 Valuations & Recommendation: Avg.52 Wk Volume 620515 We had initiated a buy on the company on September 14, 2020 (which has achieved its bull case target) and we re-iterate our buy on 52 Week High 628 Radico given the well-balanced product mix and the strong performance history along with stable raw material prices, new product 52 Week Low 220 launches and high potential for re-rating. We recommend a buy on the dips to Rs. 543 – 550 band and add on 477-484 band. We feel the base case fair value of the stock is Rs.616 (23xFY23E EPS) and the bull case fair value is Rs.668 (25xFY23E EPS). Share holding Pattern % (Dec 31, 2020) Promoters 40.31 The initiation report can be accessed at https://www.hdfcsec.com/hsl.research.pdf/Radico-Khaitan-Initiating-Coverage-230620.pdf Institutions 35.21 Non Institutions 24.48 Financial Summary (Rs Cr) Particulars (Rs cr) Q3FY21 Q3FY20 YoY-% Q2FY21 QoQ-% FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E Total 100.0 Net Revenues 684 648 5.6% 630 8.6% 2427 2345 2774 3071 EBITDA 125 103 21.5% 107 16.1% 372 385 466 523 Fundamental Research Analyst APAT 84 68 23.1% 75 12.6% 213 238 307 356 Harsh Sheth Diluted EPS (Rs) 6.3 5.1 23.0% 5.6 12.6% 16.00 17.8 23.0 26.7 [email protected] P/E (x) 38.6 34.6 26.8 23.1 EV/EBITDA 23.1 21.6 17.5 15.1 RoE-% 17.8% 14.6% 16.4% 16.4% 2 Radico Khaitan Ltd. Company Update: Premiumisation and changes in policies helps Radico outperform - In Q3FY21 against industry degrowth of 1%, Radico’s volumes grew by 0.7% for IMFL segment (82% of the topline) driven by Prestige and Above (P&A) volume growth of 5%. Radico achieved highest ever monthly volumes in December 2020. With the exception of Q1FY21, Radico has delivered year-over-year growth in every quarter since Q3FY18. Top liquor consuming states such as Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Telangana, Uttaranchal, Maharashtra, Kerala, etc., have delivered Y-o-Y growth in Q3FY21 but some of the large states are still lagging with Andhra Pradesh being the most affected (4% of the mix vs. 8% Y- o-Y). Change in the UP excise policy to move from the monopolistic distribution to a free market benefited the Company as Radico enjoys a strong positioning in the state. Lot of states are looking to adopt UP’s model which shall boost overall industry volumes. Ban on imported liquor in CSD gave a boost to premium brands and it also provides Radico an opportunity to consolidate its no. 1 position (~30% market share) in CSD. New launches as well expanding portfolio in newer markets will grow P&A portfolio. Benign raw material prices drive margins - Gross margin expanded by 230 bps from 48.5% to 50.8% during Q3FY21. Margin expansion during the period was primarily due to a stable raw material pricing scenario apart from improved realization, better product mix and higher exports. EBITDA margin expanded by 235 bps due to gross margin improvements and cost rationalization. A&P expense increased by 37% as Radico continues to aggressively invest in its brands to gain market share and continue the premiumisation journey. Finance cost in Q3FY21 decreased by 33.5% from Rs. 8.10 Cr to Rs. 5.9 Cr on account of debt reduction and lower interest cost. PAT in Q3FY21 witnessed a sharp growth of 29.5% to Rs.80.5 Cr due to improved operating performance. As of 31st December 2020, the net debt stood at Rs. 255 Cr vs Rs. 382 Cr on 31st March 2020, the management has further guided to make Radico debt free duly supported by its improving cash flows. The management has guided the gross margin to be in the range of 50-52% in Q4 and in FY22 on the expectation of favorable raw material prices. New launches to spur revenue growth - The continued focus on new launches and brand extensions has been key driver of Radico’s growth over past few years and this trend is likely to continue in future. Jaisalmer gin which was earlier launched only in Delhi and Goa has now been launched in other metro cities and management plans to roll it out on pan-India basis in the current calendar year. Rampur Single Malt has been introduced in India with its launch in Delhi and will be available in increasing quantities in the domestic markets over next couple of years. 8PM Premium Black Whisky is now available in 16 states and is on course of becoming millionaire brand by end of 3 Radico Khaitan Ltd. current fiscal. Radico continued to extend its leadership in Vodka segment (60% domestic market share) as it expanded its Verve premium portfolio through brand extensions. Radico futher has two premium whiskies in pipeline and will be launching it in phased manner in domestic markets. The management has guided that Radico will continue to expand its super-premium portfolio by the existing brands launches in the new states as well as by new launches. Exports have grown by 120% in Q3FY21 and by 82% in 9MFY21. It has a presence across 30 states in the USA and intends to further expand its footprint not only in US but Europe and travel retail markets in super- premium categories. Fire incident at Rampur plant: On 6th March 2021, around 8.15 AM, a sudden fire was noticed in two of the alcohol storage tanks with a combined capacity of Extra Neutral Alcohol of 350,000 bulk litres. The Company’s emergency response team along with the local fire brigades were able to bring the fire under control without any spread to other alcohol production, storage and bottling areas. Furthermore, there was no loss of life. As per the company there is no material impact on revenues/production of the Company due to this fire incident. Production was stopped only for a few hours as a precautionary measure. As of now all alcohol production and bottling operations have resumed. The company has adequate insurance in place to cover the damages at the plant. The company has intimated to the insurance companies and they are in the process of ascertaining the extent of loss. Company Background Radico Khaitan commenced its operations as a major bulk spirits supplier and bottler to other spirit manufacturers. Driven by the vision of the promoters, in 1998 the Company started its own brand line with the launch of 8PM Whisky. Radico Khaitan is one of the few companies in India to have developed its entire brand portfolio with in house capabilities. The Company’s brand portfolio across the Indian made Foreign Liquor (IMFL) categories of Whisky, Brandy, Rum and White Spirits includes After Dark Whisky, Contessa Rum, Jaisalmer – Indian Craft Gin, Magic Moments Vodka, Magic Moments Verve Vodka, Morpheus Brandy, Old Admiral Brandy, Pluton Bay Rum, Rampur Indian Single Malt Whisky, Regal Talon Whisky, 1965 – The Spirit of Victory Rum and 8PM Whisky. Radico has evolved from a distillery player to branded IMFL player in India with presence across products categories. Radico has a strong distribution network; >75,000 retail outlets and > 8,000 on premise outlets. 4 Radico Khaitan Ltd.
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