PROJEC T/PROGRAMME PROPOSAL TO THE ADAPTATION FUND PART I: PROJECT/PROGRAMME INFORMATION Title of Project/Programme: Enhance community, local and national-level urban climate change resilience to water scarcity, caused by floods and droughts in Rawalpindi and Nowshera, Pakistan Country: Pakistan Type of Implementing Entity: Multilateral Implementing Entity: United Nations Human Settlements Programme Executing Entities: National level: - Ministry of Climate Change – through establish- ment of PMU; NDMA - Ministry of Water Resources Local level: - Concerned provincial and district departments in- cluding Provincial and district disaster management authorities - Municipal Corporation Rawalpindi and Municipal Committee/Tehsil Municipal Administration Now- shera Community level: - Shehersaaz NGO - Elected representatives and officials of target Union and Neighbourhood Councils - Community based organizations and citizen/women groups in target communities Amount of Financing Requested: USD 6,094,000 1 1. Project Background and Context Problem Statement, Need for the Project and Proposed Approach Reducing the impact of flooding and droughts is becoming one of the top priorities of the government of Pakistan1. The government has requested UN-Habitat, through its Adaptation Fund designated authority to develop a project that addresses these adaptation challenges in line with the National Water Policy 2018, the National Flood Pro- tection Plan 20162 and the National Disaster Management Plan 2012. Even though flood impacts are often severe in urban areas3, a national approach to address this situation in cities doesn’t exist in Pakistan. This is critical, considering that 36.4% of Pakistan’s population lives in urban areas4. Existing approaches to deal with flood and drought impacts are not comprehensive and rainwater harvesting techniques are rarely used. Recurring floods damage the lives of individuals, destroy infrastructure and render much drinking water infra- structure unusable in affected areas. In addition, unplanned urban sprawl has led to encroachment on riverbanks and other flood-prone areas. On the River Kabul in Nowshera, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province and the Nullah Lai River5 in Rawalpindi, Punjab Province, floods exacerbated by poor drainage and settlement encroachment are repeatedly affected the poorest and most vulnerable people. Tube wells get submerged and access to potable, safe water becomes difficult. As the majority of people depend on water from these sources for drinking, cooking and domestic use, floods have very serious effects – counterintuitively leaving hundreds of thousands of people without access to safe, clean water. Recurrent floods have been known to contaminate groundwater down to a level of 100 feet (30.5 metres) and thus affect people who depend on pumped ground water (see Figure 11). Further water contamination occurs because of improper solid waste disposal, which clogs drainage channels. The urban poor are then the most affected as they can’t afford deeper boreholes (which may not be effective anyway). This leads to serious outbreaks of disease during flood periods, which particularly affects women, children, the elderly and those with underlying medical conditions. In Rawalpindi, for example, a recent study showed that the majority of water sources had indicator microorganisms beyond WHO permissible limits6. Water harvesting initiatives and facilities are very limited in Pakistan. The limited facilities in existence rely on techniques that are not well developed their ability to reduce flood impacts or adapt to climate change more generally has not been established. Therefore, the proposed approach of this project is necessary as well as cost- effective in the Pakistan urban context. To scale the project’s approach, a national urban strategy will be devel- oped, focusing on climate change impacts, particularly floods and water scarcity (and resulting public health prob- lems), while also employing a spatial planning approach. 1 See section D (analysis of national priorities / strategies and section H (outcomes consultations with government stakeholders). 2 Idem 3 According to government priorities – see section D and section H, adverse flood and drought impacts should be especially addressed in 1) flood plains and drainage areas in highly populated areas (i.e. in urban areas) and / or where livelihoods and assets are most affected, 2) areas where people have difficulty to protect themselves and recover from floods and where access to clean water is limited, especially when water is contaminated due to floods - thus mostly in poor and informal settlements. 4 https://www.statista.com/statistics/455907/urbanization-in-pakistan/ 5 Just a few decades ago, Lai used to be a freshwater stream and was locally referred to as Lai River. Thanks to unchecked and unplanned urban growth in Rawalpindi and upstream Islamabad and absence of a planned sewerage system; the Lai has been turned into a very large sewer that carries the untreated and highly polluted waste water of these two cities. 6 Nabeela, F. et al (2014) Microbial Contamination of Drinking Water in Pakistan, A Review, in Environmental Science and Pollution Research Vol 21, No. 24, 13939-13942 2 At the district, city and community levels, a comprehensive approach will be adopted to address water scarcity issues in a flood-resilient manner using innovative techniques. These community plans and city level spatial plan- ning strategies will contribute to reducing climate change risks and impacts beyond city boundaries across multiple sectors. Geographic and demographic context Sharing a border with China, India, Afghanistan and Iran, Pakistan is a highly geographically diverse country that consists of deserts (making up 14% of its land area), the world 2nd highest mountain, and almost 1,000km coastline in the south, lush, fertile plains in the east and over 5,000 glaciers. In 2019, Pakistan’s population was 205 million7, making it the 6th most populous country in the world according to the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The population has more than doubled since 1985 and could top 400 million by 20808. Such rapid growth puts strain on water, sanitation and health services which are already inadequate in places. Rural-urban migration has made Pakistan the second-most rapidly urbanizing country in South Asia, with about 36 per cent of the population currently living in urban areas.9 Pakistan’s Human Development Index value for 2018 was 0.550, ranking it 147 out of 188 countries10. The 2018 Economic Survey11 showed that the percentage of people living below the income poverty line has fallen to 6.1 per cent, while the working poor – those living below US$3.10 is stubbornly high, at 37.1 per cent. However, while the long-term trend has shown some progress, Pakistan’s present economic situation means that around 1 million people have recently lost their jobs, which will have a significant knock-on effect on poverty12. Geographic and demographics in the context of climate change In light of climate change projections, current and expected future impacts and vulnerabilities (further discussed below), the high poverty rate and rapid urbanization will lead to more people living in urban areas. Many of the migrants are likely to be poor and will gravitate to poor, informal, or unsafe areas close to rivers and drainage channels. Settlements such as these are targeted by this project, shown in Annex 1. Economic Context Having averaged almost 5% growth per year since the 1950s, Pakistan’s current GDP is US$278 billion13, or about US$1,356 per capita. This makes Pakistan a lower middle-income country. However, current economic forecasts are bleak, and the Pakistan Rupee has depreciated substantially in recent months. As mentioned above, this has potential for impacts on jobs and livelihoods that will unfold over the coming months. The current makeup of the economy is around 58 per cent energy, 21 per cent agriculture and 20 per cent heavy industry – mainly manufacture, mining and construction. China has become a major investor in Pakistan under its 7 https://pwd.punjab.gov.pk/ 8 https://population.un.org/wpp/DataQuery/ 9 Pakistan’s intended nationally determined contribution (PAK-INDC), p7 10 http://hdr.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/PAK 11 https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2018/04/26/pakistans-percentage-of-people-living-below-poverty-line-falls-to-24-3-percent-economic-sur- vey-2018/ 12 https://nayadaur.tv/2019/05/one-million-people-have-lost-jobs-and-eight-million-might-go-below-poverty-line-in-next-two-fis- cal-years-hafeez-pasha/. 13 https://data.worldbank.org/country/pakistan 3 Belt and Road initiative and numerous mega-projects are either under construction or in the pipeline14. Economic Context and Climate Change In light of recent disasters and the future projected impacts of climate change, public funds are being re-pro- grammed from social and economic services to disaster management. Extreme climate events between 1994 and 2013 resulted in annual economic losses of up to US$4 billion. Despite this investment, the government lacks the financial and technical capacity to protect high density areas and especially the urban poor. This resulted in mon- etary losses of over US$18 billion resulting from the devastating impacts of the floods between 2010 and 201415. Social Context Pakistan’s new poverty index reveals that four in ten Pakistan’s live in multidimensional poverty16. The average intensity of deprivation is 50.9 per cent,