Volume 2- User's Manual for the HDM-III Model
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LI(43 THE HIGHWAY DESIGN AND MAINTENANCE STANDARDS SERIES - \ ~~~~~~9951 \~~~~ g $u;0 2 Public Disclosure Authorized vL 'rxx1J' Volume 2- User'sManual for the HDM-IIIModel Public Disclosure Authorized ThawaWatnatla, Clell G. Harral, WilliaimD. 0. Paterson, Ashok M. Dhareshwar, Anil Bhandari, and Koji Tsuno Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized A World Bank Publication THE HIGHWAY DESIGN AND MAINTENANCE STANDARDS SERIES The Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Model Volume 2. User's Manual for the HDM-III Model Thawat Watanatada Clell G. Harral William D. 0. Paterson Ashok M. Dhareshwar Anil Bhandari Koji Tsunokawa in collaboration with Wee-Beng Aw Jonathan Rich Per E. Fossberg Theodora, Underhill Edward Holland Sujiv Vurgese Publishedfor The World Bankc The Johns Hopkins University Press Baltimore and London C 1987 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America The Johns Hopkins University Press Baltimore, Maryland, 21211 First printing December 1987 Second printing May 1989 The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this study are the results of research supported by the World Bank, but they are entirely those of the authors and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries ihey represent. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The Highway design and maintenance standards model. The Highway design and maintenance standards series) Bibliography: p. Contents: v. l. Description of the HDM-III model- v. 2. User's manual for the HDM-III model. 1. Roads-Design-Mathematical models. 2. Roads- Maintenance and repair-Mathematical models. 3. Roads- Deterioration-Mathematical models. 4. Motor vehicles- Cost of operation-Mathematical models. I. Thawat Watanatada. II. World Bank. III. Series. TE175.H54 1987 625.7 87-22733 ISBN 0-8018-3591-7 (v. 1) ISBN 0-8018-3592-5 (v.2) Foreword An effective road transportation network is an important factor in economic and social development. It is also costly. Road construction and maintenance consume a large proportion of the national budget, while the costs borne by the road-using public for vehicle operation and depreciation are even greater. It is therefore vitally important that policies be pursued which, within financial and other constraints, minimize total transport costs for the individual road links and for tlhe road network as a whole. To do this meaningfully, particularly when dealing with large and diverse road networks, alternatives must be compared and the tradeoffs between them carefully assessed. This in turn requires the ability to quantify and predict performance and cost functions for the desired period of analysis. Because of the need for such quantitative functions, the World. Bank initiated a study in 1969 which later became a large-scale program of collaborative research with leading research institutions and road agencies in several countries. This Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Study (HDM) has focused both on the rigorous empirical quantification of the tradeoffs between the costs of road construction, road maintenance, and vehicle operation and on the development of planning models incorporating total life-cycle cost simulation as a basis for highways decisionmaking. This volume is one in a series that document the results of the HDM study. The other volumes are: Vehicle Operating Costs Evidence from Developing Countries Vehicle Speeds and Operating Costs Models for Road Planning and Management Road Deterioration and Maintenance Effects Models for Planning and Management The Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Model Volume 1. Description of the HDM-III Model The Highway Design and Maintenance Standards model resudting from the HDM study is now in its third version, HDM-Ill. It incorporates the relationships described in the other volumes of this series as well as a road construction submodel into interacting sets of costs related to construction, maintenance, and road use. These are added together over time in discounted present values, in which costs are determined by first predicting physical quantities of resource consumption and then multiplying these by unit costs or prices. HDM-III is designed to make comparative cost estimates and economic evaluations of different construction and maintenance options, including different time-staging strategies, either for a given road project on a specific alignment or for groups of links on an entire network. The user can search for the alternative with the lowest discounted total cost and can call for rates of return, net present values, or first-year benefits. If the HDM is used in conjunction with the Expenditure Budgeting Model, the set of design and maintenance options that would minimize total discounted transport costs or maximize net present value of an entire highway system under year-to-year budget constraints can be determined. Adequate analysis of the many possible combinations of alternatives is too large a task for manual calculation. Even when analysts have had access to computers of sufficient capacity, they have been hampered by the lack of two essentials: an efficient simulation program embodying an appropriate model and procedures for using it and an adequate body of empirically established relationships among the relevant variables. The HDM-Ill model fills both of these needs. It is not only a readily usable program for handling the voluminous computations automatically, it is alsc, a repository of the most extensive and consistent set of empirical data on the subject. The information includes the qualitative structure and iii quantitative parameters of relationships among construction standards, maintenance, traffic characteris- tics, road deterioration, and vehicle operating costs. This manual defines input parameters and their ranges, input entry and formating, and error messages and default values; it also provides complete sample runs for typical cases. It describes how to classify the road network, stratify traffic levels, define maintenance options, and select discount rates and analysis periods. The manual is self-instructive, but the user will need some three to four weeks to become conversant with the model. To understand the model completely, however, one should also study the companion volume, Description of the HDM-III Model. ClellG. Harral Per E. Fossberg Principal Transport Economist Highways Adviser iv Contents HDM-III Model Request Pro Forma Chapter 1. Model Installation 1 1.1 Mainframe Implementation of HDM-III and EBM 2 1.1.1 Computer tape specifications 2 1.1.2 Existing file structure 3 1.1.3 File modification for installation 5 1.1.4 Sample overlay structure 6 1.2 MS/DOS Implementation of HDM-III 8 1.3 Xenix Implementation of HDM-III 13 1.3.1 Systemdescription 13 1.3.2 Floppydiskcontents 13 1.3.3 Running HDM-III 14 1.3.4 Creating executable programs from the source code 14 Chapter 2. Input Data Requirements and Formats 18 2.1 Series A. Existing Link Characteristics 19 2.2 Series B. Construction Options and Costs 32 2.3 Series C. Road Maintenance Standards and Unit Costs 52 2.4 Series D. Vehicle Fleet Characteristics and Unit Costs 80 2.5 Series E. Traffic Volumes and Growth Charac:teristics 103 2.6 Series F. Exogenous Benefits and Costs 107 2.7 Series G. Link-alternatives 110 2.8 Series H. Group Alternatives 117 2.9 Series I. Report Requests 120 2.10 Series J. Comparison of Alternatives 128 2.11 Series K. Run Control 133 Chapter 3. Input Error Messages 150 3.1 General Error Messages 151 3.2 Series A. Existing Link Characteristics 1523 3.3 Series B. Construction Options and Costs 154 3.4 Series C. Road Maintenance Standards and Unit Costs 156 3.5 Series D. Vehicle Fleet Characteristics and Unit Costs 158 3.6 Series E. Traffic Volumes and Growth Characteristics 159 3.7 Series F. Exogenous Benefits and Costs 160 3.8 Series G. Link-alternatives 161 3.9 Series H. Group-Alternatives 165 3.10 Series I. Report Requests 166 3.11 Series J. Comparison of Alternatives 167 3.12 SeriesK.RunControlInformation 169 3.13 Simulation Phase Errors 169 Chapter 4. Sample Run: Inputs 170 4.1 Series A. Existing Link Characteristics 172 4.2 Series B. Construction Options and Costs 182 v 4.3 Series C. Road Maintenance Standards and Unit Costs 193 4.4 Series D. Vehicle Fleet Characteristics and Unit Costs 205 4.5 Series E. Traffic Volumes and Growth Characteristics 213 4.6 Series F. Exogenous Benefits and Costs 217 4.7 Series G. Link-alternatives 220 4.8 Series H. Group-Alternatives 225 4.9 SeriesI. ReportRequests 228 4.10 Series J. Comparison of Alternatives 234 4.11 Series K. Run Control 238 Chapter 5. Sample Run: Outputs 244 5.1 Printout of Input Card Images 244 5.2 Diagnostics 244 5.3 Tabulation of Input Data 245 5.4 SeriesIReports 289 5.5 Economic Evaluation Reports 317 Chapter 6. Expenditure Budgeting Model 337 6.1 DataandCommands 338 6.2 General Format of Input Data 346 6.3 Some Practical Suggestions 347 Appendix 6A. Description of the EBM Commands 350 Appendix 6B. EBM Sample Sessions 355 Appendix 6C. EBM Error Messages 382 Appendix 6D. Suggested Names for Project-Alternatives 389 Appendix 6E. Structure of the HDM-III Output File for the EBM 390 Errata 393 vi Acknowledgments This book is the result of a collaborative effort between many individuals and organizations, who have contributed directly or indirectly to the various phases of development of the model, and to the writing of the book. First of all, thanks are due to those who established the first rnodel for rigorous analysisto optimize road policies, and to minimize total transport cost: F. Moavenzadeh and B.