Penn State Football – Finding Joe Paterno's Successor

Penn State Football – Finding Joe Paterno’s Successor

Presented by: William Berish

I. Project Summary

➢ Joseph Vincent “Joe” Paterno is an institution; he is Penn State football. Joe was named the head coach of Penn State in 1966 and has held the post since then. During this time, he has racked up over 400 victories, a FBS record. To put his time at Penn State in perspective, there have been nearly 900 coaching changes at other schools since Paterno was named head coach. ➢ It is unknown if Joe plans on stepping down at the end of his current contract which expires after the upcoming 2011 season. ➢ This paper is not intended to suggest that Penn State should force coach Paterno out of coaching against his will. That doesn’t make sense in light of his recent success having gone 58-19 over the past six seasons where he is averaging nearly ten wins per season. Rather, the intention is to determine the best strategy for choosing Paterno’s replacement when that time comes. Being that Paterno is 84 years-old in a profession dominated by young men, it is conceivable to think change could happen at any time.

II. The Alternatives

➢ Hire a proven winner from outside the program: Penn State is a well-known program capable of bringing in a proven winner. A name that has started to float around recently is Urban Meyer. Meyer is a two time national champion and holds an impressive 104-23 record in his time as head coach ➢ Hire a rising star from outside the program: Penn State may opt to hire a young coach from outside the program that continues to succeed with every new challenge. Let’s face it; every great coach was a rising star at some point. A myriad of names of potential coaches could be included in this category. One name that often comes up in this category is Al Golden. ➢ Promote from within: Penn State could very well decide to promote an assistant coach that is already part of the program. This would help to keep continuity for a program that has been relatively successful over the last six years. Although there are several potential head coaches currently serving as assistant coaches at Penn State, Tom Bradley is the most likely candidate for promotion from within. III. BOCR Networks and Tables

Benefits Opportunites Goal Goal

Economic Social Economic Social Economic Economic Alternatives Financial Impact Alternatives Revenue Generation Football-Related Football-Related Alternatives Excitement Alternatives Bigger & Better

Costs Risks Goal Goal

Economic Social Economic Social Economic Economic Alternatives Financial Impact Alternatives Economic Change Exposures Football-Related Football-Related Alternatives Player Issues Alternatives Football Change Exposures

IV. Clusters in the Decision Networks / Elements in the Clusters

BOCR Control Criteria Clusters Elements

Economic Financial Impact Current earnings, future earnings, stability

New strategies, players re-energized, impact on current Benefits Football-Related Excitement recruiting class Increased alumni donations, Increased ticket pricing, Economic Revenue generation Increased sponsorships, Increased basketball revenue Expand recruiting base, schedule tougher opponents, Expand Football-Related Bigger & Better

Opportunities NFL player production

Economic Financial Impact Coaching contracts, facilities upgrades

Costs Transfers, Players unhappy with change, Players don't match Football-Related Player Issues coaches style Economic change Decline in alumni donations, lower ticket sales, Increase in Economic exposures coaches salaries

Risks Football change Rapid coaching turnover, players don't buy in, decreased Football-Related exposures recruiting base V. BOCR Weight Development

Strategic Criteria

Win Increase Excite Save Own Games Budget Fans Jobs

(0.13) (0.65) (0.06) (0.16)

VI. Strategic Criteria and Ratings Scale

Win Increase Excite Save Own Games Budget Fans Jobs Benefits (0.23) Average Above Average Average Average Opportunities (0.41) Average Strongly Average Average Costs (0.18) Above Average Average Below Average Above Average Risks (0.18) Above Average Average Below Average Above Average

Strongly: 3x Above Average, 5x Average, 7x Below Average, 9x Weakly Above Average: 3x Average, 5x Below Average, 7x Weakly Average: 3x Below Average, 5x Weakly Below Average: 3x Weakly

VII. Overall Results

As shown in Table 3, the results show that in both the short-term and in the long-term, Penn State’s athletic director would be best served to hire a proven winner to replace Coach Paterno when the time comes. It is also interesting to note that promoting from within is found to be preferred to a hiring a rising star in the short-term, but hiring a rising star is preferred to promoting from within in the long-term. Promoting from within stabilizes the program in the short-term. Short-Term Long-Term Benefits Opport. Costs Risks Outcome Outcome Alternatives (0.23) (0.41) (0.18) (0.18) (BO/CR) (Additive) Proven Winner 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 Rising Star 0.496 0.396 0.515 0.990 0.385 0.274 Promote From Within 0.379 0.154 0.144 0.834 0.486 0.073

VIII. Sensitivity Analysis

With regards to both benefits and opportunities, hiring a proven winner consistently is shown to provide the highest priority.

With regards to costs, the proven winner is the most costly until the priority hits roughly 0.35. At this point, promoting from within is seen as the most costly alternative. Similarly, hiring a proven winner is seen as the riskiest alternative until the priority hits 0.65 where once again promoting from within overtakes it.