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Uganda Clays (UCL) FY2017 Audited Accounts Snapshot

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Uganda Clays (UCL) FY2017 Audited Accounts Snapshot Uganda Clays Limited FY2017 Audited Accounts Snapshot May 30, 2018 Uganda Clays Limited (USE:UCL) FY2017: Optimism may fade on weak earnings growth HOLD Market Price 30/05/2018 Ugx25.00 Analyst Opinion: HOLD with a 1-year Target price of Ugx28.25 ($0.008): After leaping 2011-Year7 Target Price* Ugx28.25 out of a 5-year loss making streak in 2016, Uganda Clays earnings increased by less than 1% last year. Total revenues grew 4.4% but roofing tiles UCL’s cash-cow dropped 0.15% while Upside to TP 13.00% maxpans grew just 3.45%. The Company’s Kajjansi and Kamonkoli business units returned Figure 1: UCL Share Price Trend (One Year) mixed results. Kajjansi improved revenue growth to 6% from 5% in 2016 while Kamonkoli faltered, growing just 0.12% compared to 17.32% in 2016. Overall, the Kamonkoli operation has not broken even in the last five years. UCL was however able to maintain positive return on equity (ROE) of 7.66% in 2017 though lower than 8.47% in 2016, return on assets (ROA) also slid marginally to 3.82% from 3.92% last year. We give Uganda Clays (UCL) a HOLD recommendation with a target price of Ugx28.25 ($0.008) a 13% upside from market price. We however remain cautious as one-off growth and return trends in 2016 were not repeated in 2017. UCL appears to have sat back on its short laurels, in our view the company should remain focused to stay ahead of local competition, drive revenues, cut costs and improve profitability. The UCL counter had the highest price rally on the Local Share Index (LSI) rising 141.67% in 2017, driven by investor optimism on the conclusion of the long-standing debt for equity restructure with its majority shareholder, National Social Security Fund (NSSF) and Source: Crested Database, Bloomberg expectations of an improved PAT. It remains unclear where the UCL restructuring stands as Share Details there is no mention of this in the 2017 Annual Report. Symbol (Bloomberg) UCL UG Market USE FY2017 Financial Highlights: Last Price Ugx25.00 Profit after tax: The company reported end of year PAT of Ugx2.39Bn ($0.64Mn) which is a 52 Week Range Ugx12–33 Year to Date Vol Traded 4,218,229 mere Ugx227.22Mn ($61,244) better than profits reported at 1H2017. Revenues grew 4.47% Year to Date Turnover Ugx118.10Mn ($31,833) to Ugx27.20Bn ($7.33Mn) with gross profits increasing 2.23%, these were cut back by a 5.97% Year to date Return (12.00)% Shares Outstanding 900,000,000 increa se in cost of sales to Ugx16.51Bn ($4.45Mn). UCL’s expenses rose 21.48% to Market Capitalization Ugx22.50Bn ($6.06Mn) Ugx7.83Bn ($2.11Mn) driven by rises on administrative and distribution expenses. Table 1 Source: Uganda Securities Exchange (USE), Crested Database Total Assets added just 1.42% with investments in a fixed deposit and growth in receivables, total assets stood at Ugx66.19Bn ($17.84Mn) compared to Ugx65.26Bn ($17.59Mn) in 2016. Financial Details (Ugx Mn) FY2016 FY2017 % Change Revenue 26,037 27,201 4.47% Liabilities declined by Ugx2.30Bn ($0.62Mn) in 2017 to Ugx34.92Bn ($9.41Mn) with Cost of Sales 15,580 16,510 5.97% Ugx31.37Bn ($8.45Mn) in current assets. Uganda Clays still has an outstanding debt of Total Operating Costs 6,447 7,831 21.48% Net Profit 2,373 2,395 0.92% Ugx23.21Bn ($6.26Mn) acquired from is majority shareholder (National Social Security Fund). Total Assets 65,263 66,190 1.42% Shareholders’ Equity advanced 11.53% to Ugx31.26Bn ($8.43Mn) owing to a 33.77% growth in Total Liabilities 37,229 34,923 (6.19)% Shareholders’ equity 28,034 31,266 11.53% retained earnings to Ugx12.05Bn ($3.25Mn). The retained earnings were boosted by plant and Total Debt 23,211 23,211 - property (PPE) and deferred tax adjustments of Ugx1.74Bn ($0.47Mn). The net asset value Table 2 Source: UCL Audited Accounts FY2017, Crested Database per share thereby improved to Ugx34.74 ($0.008) compared to Ugx31.15 ($0.008) previously. Ratios FY2016 FY2017 % Change Earnings per share were a relatively flat at Ugx2.66 from Ugx2.64 in 2016. Investors are paying ROA 3.64% 3.62% (9.51)% ROE 8.47% 7.66% (0.49)% more for the company’s earnings in 2018 as the counter now trades at a price to earnings (PE) ROCE 3.92% 3.82% (2.37)% of 9.39x more than double PE of 4.55x in 2016. The UCL price to book (PB) returned to 2013 Profit Margin 9.12% 8.81% (3.40)% Gross Margin 40.16% 39.30% (2.14)% levels closing at 0.72x compared to 0.39x last year. NAV per share (Ugx) 31.15 34.74 11.53% Dividen d: The company’s directors recommended a final dividend of Ugx900Mn ($0.24Mn) or Earnings Per Share (Ugx) 2.64 2.66 0.92% Dividend Per Share (Ugx) 1.00 1.00 - Ugx1 ($0.0003) per share which represents a dividend payout of 37.57%. At its market price, Dividend Payout 37.92% 37.57% (0.91)% Dividend Yield 8.33% 4.00% (52.00)% the dividend yield has declined from a high of 8.33% last year to 4.00% in 2017 slightly lower Price to Book (PB) 0.39x 0.72x 86.80% than the local listed company’s average dividend yield of 4.29%. If approved by shareholders, Price to Earnings (PE) 4.55x 9.39x 106.43% the dividend will be paid on or about 1st August 2018. The annual general meeting will be Table 3 Source: UCL Audited Accounts FY2017, Crested Database held on 28th June 2018. (Book closure: 28th June 2018, USE effective date: 25th June 2018) Methodology: We used three models to reach our UCL 1-year price estimate: Using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), with an equity return of 14.48% we get a target price of Ugx27.05 ($0.007), Using the enterprise value (EV) multiples, we get an implied share value of Ugx27.82 ($0.007) while for the Discounted Cashflow method (DCF) with a discount rate of 24.84%, we get an equity value of Ugx29.88 ($0.008). An average of the three methods gives us a 1-year target price of Ugx28.25 ($0.008). Recommendation Guide: BUY – Strong Fundamentals; BUY/HOLD - Fundamentals are good, in line with sector performance and guidance; HOLD - Future Outlook remains positive; SELL/HOLD - Substantial Risk to fundamentals, negative outlook and guidance; SELL - Strong Risk on fundamentals 1USD = Ugx3,710 DISCLAIMER: The information contained herein is obtained from sources, which to the best of our knowledge are reliable. As such, we are not responsible or liable for any factual errors arising thereof. The opinions expressed herein are ours and are subject to change anytime without notice. CRESTEDCAPITAL Research Team Impala House 1st Floor, Plot 13/15 Kimathi Avenue P.O. Box 31736, Kampala, Uganda Zacheus Mushaija [email protected] Tel: +256 312 230900, Hotline: +256 758 230900 Emasu Oscar Paul [email protected] @: [email protected], W: www.crestedcapital.com .
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