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Securities/Insurance Big Tech Players ’ Advance Into the Financial Industry: Partnerships and Conflicts

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Securities/Insurance Big Tech Players ’ Advance Into the Financial Industry: Partnerships and Conflicts Securities/Insurance Big tech players ’ advance into the financial industry: Partnerships and conflicts Overweight (Maintain) Big tech players’ advance into the financial industry: From partners to competitors Industry Report Big tech companies such as NAVER (035420 KS/Buy/TP: W230,000/CP: W158,000) and September 25, 2019 Kakao (035720 KS/Buy/TP: W177,000/CP: W136,500) are accelerating their entries into the financial industry. We believe the rapid convergence of financial services and online platforms is not a fad but a new reality. Indeed, digitalization has long been underway in financial products and services, which are well-suited to online platforms Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. due to their intangible nature. Notably, f inancial products and services are also commodity-like, with a huge existing market. [Securities/Insurance ] For the traditional financial industry, which faces slowing growth amid intensifying Gil -won Jeong competition, the presence of big tech companies represents both an opportunity and a +822 -3774 -1675 threat. [email protected] So far, big tech companies and financial institutions have functioned as business partners, shoring up each other’s weaknesses. Generally speaking, financial institutions have traditionally been responsible for all of the factors (i.e., capital, products, sales channels, and labor) required to offer products and services within a strict regulatory framework. Now, thanks to cross-industry partnerships, they can share some of that burden with tech companies. The risks inherent to the financial industry have historically hampered tech companies’ activities in the area (with the exception of payment services); meanwhile, one of the major challenges for financial institutions is channel diversification from offline to online. Against this backdrop, we believe that cross-industry partnerships can yield mutual benefits. However, any disturbance in the balance of power/ benefits can easily turn partners into competitors. We believe WeBank, launched by Tencent (0700 HK/CP : HK$328.40) as China's first digital bank, makes a good case for cross-industry cooperation. Meanwhile, MYbank, an offshoot of Alibaba (BABA US/CP: US$175.00), is a good example of how conflicting interests can turn former partners into competitors. Valuations to hinge on returns and inherent risks Under a Korean government initiative called MyData , financial institutions’ customers will soon be able to grant third-party access to select personal data in order to receive financial services (asset management, financial product recommendations, etc.). We view this as an irreversible shift that will have a huge impact on the markets for simple-structure and/or high-fee financial products. In this report, we aim to provide a basic framework for understanding big tech’s move into the financial industry, including the potential impact on different financ ial segments. Cooperation-conflict matrix ⒹⒹⒹ Big tech firms become competitors Ⓒ Platforms > Financial institutions High - Balance of power tilts toward online - Online platforms directly enter the platforms financial services market by establishing - Financial institutions increasingly rely on financial subsidiaries online platforms, losing bargaining power - Disagreements surface over revenue sharing and level of cooperation Conflict level ⒶⒶⒶ No need for cooperation Ⓑ Mutually beneficial relationship - Separate markets - Access to new sales channels (for financial institutions) and risk-sharing (for platforms) - In many cases, joint ventures are established Low Cost savings Growth (customers, sales channels, etc.) New business model Need for cooperation Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research September 25, 2019 Securities/Insurance C O N T E N T S I. From partners to competitors 3 Environmental factors: Low interest rates + digitalization 5 Growing need for partnerships 10 II. Conditions for cooperation and conflict 17 Cooperation-conflict matrix 17 Regulatory changes Greater need for cooperation 22 III. Other issues 25 Firms with simple, commodity-like product lineups to be more affected 25 Valuation 27 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 September 25, 2019 Securities/Insurance I. From partners to competitors Big tech companies such as NAVER and Kakao are accelerating their entries into the financial industry. Having already made significant strides in the payment sector based on their strong online platforms, big tech players are currently working on extending their reach by selling financial products and establishing financial subsidiaries. We believe the rapid convergence of financial services and online platforms is not a fad but a new reality. Indeed, digitalization has long been underway in financial products and services, which are well-suited to online platforms due to their intangible nature. Notably, financial products and services are also commodity-like, with a huge existing market. For the financial industry, which faces slowing growth amid intensifying competition, the presence of big tech companies represents both an opportunity and a threat. So far, big tech companies and financial institutions have functioned as business partners, shoring up each other’s weaknesses. Generally speaking, financial institutions have traditionally been responsible for all of the factors (i.e., capital, products, sales channels, and labor) required to offer products and services within a strict regulatory framework. Now, thanks to cross-industry partnerships, they can share some of that burden with tech companies. The risks inherent to the financial industry have historically hampered tech companies’ activities in the area (with the exception of payment services); meanwhile, one of the major challenges for financial institutions is channel diversification from offline to online. Against this backdrop, we believe that cross-industry partnerships can yield mutual benefits. However, any disturbance in the balance of power/benefits can easily turn partners into competitors. But given that big tech and financial institutions are not typical competitors operating under the same set of regulatory or license requirements, we believe investors need a new framework for understanding the market dynamics that are currently taking shape. A common mistake when interpreting new trends is to extrapolate successful overseas cases to the domestic market, disregarding differences in regulatory conditions, market maturity, and participants’ needs. The purpose of this report is to help prevent such mistakes and provide a basic framework for understanding the advance of big tech into the financial industry ahead of a series of key events, such as the spin-off of NAVER Pay (to form NAVER Financial) and KakaoBank’s IPO. Table 1. Big tech’s advance into the financial market: Korea Services Company Asset Future plans Money transfer Payments Credit card management/ Lending insurance - Acquisition of Baro Investment & Securities by KakaoPay (2019) Kakao KakaoPay KakaoPay - - KakaoBank - Launch of insurance services by KakaoPay (2019) - Launch of credit card service s by Kakao Bank (1H 20) - Launch of offline payment service (3Q 19) NAVER NAVER Pay NAVER Pay - - - - Spin-off of NAVER Pay to establish NAVER Financial (November 20 19) Samsung Samsung Pay* Samsung Pay - Samsung Pay - Electronics LG - LG Pay - - - Big 3 telcos K Bank SK Pay** K Bank K Bank K Bank (SKT, KT, LGU+) Notes: * Overseas money transfers only; ** SK Pay was launched by combining 11Pay and T Pay (July 2019) Source: IBK Economic Research Institute, press reports, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 September 25, 2019 Securities/Insurance Table 2. Big tech’s advance into the financial market: Overseas Services Company Money Asset Lending Recently launched services/future plans Payments Credit card Insurance transfer management Personal SME - Established a healthcare company in partnership Amazon - ○ ○ - △ - ○ with JP Morgan and Berkshire Hathaway (US) - Plans to launch insurance service Alibaba ○ ○ - ○ ○ ○ ○ (China) Tencent ○ ○ - ○ ○ ○ ○ (China) Apple - Launched Apple Card in partnership with ○ ○ ○ - - - - (US) Goldman Sachs (August 2019) Google ○ ○ - - - ○ ○ (US) - Launched e-wallet service based on messaging Facebook platform WhatsApp in the UK (June 2019) ○ ○ - - - - ○ (US) - Libra, a virtual currency project, is scheduled to be launched in 1H20 M-Pesa ○ ○ - - - ○ - (Kenya) - Received approval for MercadoPago, a payment Mercado Libre - ○ - ○ △ - ○ service provider, in Brazil (November 2018) (Argentina) - Plans to launch insurance service Notes: ○ currently available; △ to be launched Source: IBK Economic Research Institute, BIS, press reports, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4 September 25, 2019 Securities/Insurance Environmental factors: Low interest rates + digitalization Low interest rates increase need for financial market changes ROE, which indicates the efficiency of capital and the growth of shareholder value, can be expressed as follows: ROE = ROA (P) × Leverage (Q) ROA has been on a secular downtrend. While this is partly a result of intense competition, we believe the more fundamental cause is narrowing spreads amid falling interest rates. As interest rates have dropped from over 6% to 2%, margins (e.g., NIM, spreads on annuity insurance products, commission fees, management fees, etc.) have declined. Meanwhile, fees paid to brokers/agents (financial institutions) have also fallen. For example, the decline in interest rates has led to a fall in margins on customer
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