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N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie 27 May 2021 Update Following Ratings Affirmation

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N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie 27 May 2021 Update Following Ratings Affirmation INFRASTRUCTURE AND PROJECT FINANCE CREDIT OPINION N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie 27 May 2021 Update following ratings affirmation Update Summary N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie's (Gasunie, A1/P-1 stable) credit profile benefits from the company's monopoly position as the licensed provider of gas transmission services in the Netherlands (Aaa/P-1 stable) and its service area in northern Germany; the relatively stable and predictable cash flow it generates under well-defined and relatively stable regulatory RATINGS frameworks, with visibility until 2022 for its German business and until 2026 for its Dutch N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie business; and the modest level of its leverage compared with that of its European peers, as Domicile Groningen, Netherlands reflected in its net debt/fixed assets of 39.6% as of December 2020. Long Term Rating A1 Type LT Issuer Rating Gasunie's credit profile is constrained by the company's relatively weak cash flow generation Outlook Stable until year-end 2021, given the modest level of its leverage, reflecting the lower real allowed returns in the Netherlands and Germany in the current regulatory periods; the material share Please see the ratings section at the end of this report for more information. The ratings and outlook shown of the company's operating profit (10% over 2017-20) from its unregulated businesses; the reflect information as of the publication date. likely higher investment levels required, in the next 12-18 months to ensure security of supply in the Netherlands after Groningen's switch to stand-by in 2022, and through 2030 to realise its Vision 2030 of investing a total of up to €7 billion to transform the group into an energy Contacts infrastructure company transporting hydrogen, natural and green gas, heat and carbon; and Camille Zwisler, CFA +33.1.5330.3347 the uncertainties surrounding the financing of and the future regulatory framework governing Analyst its planned investments in the next decade. [email protected] Chingunee +49.69.70730.0826 Exhibit 1 Chimedbat Regulated monopoly activities account for most of Gasunie's operating results Associate Analyst Gasunie Transport Services (Dutch Networks) Gasunie Deutschland (German Networks) [email protected] Participation & Business Development (non-regulated) 1,000 Andrew Blease +33.1.5330.3372 Associate Managing Director 800 147 [email protected] 100 600 134 102 40 37 167 €million 400 55 126 97 40 505 531 96 200 297 340 352 196 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (1) 2016 operating result normalised for the €450 million impairment of Gasunie Transport Services (GTS); (2) 2017 operating result normalised for the €117 million impairment of Gasunie Deutschland (GUD); (3) 2018 results include one-off costs from voluntary severance scheme; (4) 2020 operating result normalised for the €300 million impairment reversal of Gasunie Transport Services (GTS). Sources: Gasunie and Moody's Investors Service Finally, Gasunie's A1 ratings incorporate a two-notch uplift from its standalone credit quality, reflecting its ownership by the Dutch government and its strategic importance to the MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE INFRASTRUCTURE AND PROJECT FINANCE national energy policy, further supported by the developments with respect to the Groningen field. Credit strengths » Low business risk, underpinned by the company's regulated monopoly gas transmission network operations » Good cash flow visibility through 2022 for the German regulated business and good visibility through 2026 for the Dutch regulated business » Strong implicit support from its owner, the Dutch government Credit challenges » Lower allowed returns for regulated operations in Germany and the Netherlands in the current regulatory periods (ending 2022 and 2021, respectively), which weaken the company's cash-flow-based metrics compared with the previous regulatory periods » Material share of operating profit from its unregulated businesses, which have reduced cash flow predictability » Likely requirement of higher investment levels, in the short term, to ensure security of supply in the Netherlands following Groningen's switch to stand-by in 2022, and, in the long term, to realise its Vision 2030 to transport hydrogen, natural and green gas, heat and carbon Rating outlook The stable rating outlook reflects our expectation that Gasunie will maintain financial metrics in line with those required to maintain its a3 Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA), namely its funds from operations (FFO)/net debt above 22% and net debt/fixed assets comfortably below 50% over the 2022-26 regulatory period. We expect Gasunie's FFO/net debt to trend towards the mid-20s in percentage terms during the regulatory period. Factors that could lead to an upgrade An upgrade is unlikely, given the uncertainties surrounding the financing and the regulatory framework of Gasunie's planned investments, in particular, in hydrogen, heat and carbon infrastructure. Factors that could lead to a downgrade Gasunie's ratings could be downgraded if the company's credit metrics appear likely to fall persistently below the ratio guidance for the a3 BCA; the share of earnings from its unregulated businesses increases significantly; or a change in its relationship with the Dutch government leads us to decrease its rating uplift for government support. Key indicators Exhibit 2 N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie 31/12/17 31/12/18 31/12/19 31/12/20 12-18 months proj. (FFO + Interest Expense) / Interest Expense 8.8x 8.7x 9.0x 10.8x 9.3x - 13.5x Net Debt / Fixed Assets 43.6% 44.0% 43.1% 39.6% 37% -39% FFO / Net Debt 18.7% 16.8% 20.9% 21.5% 19% - 23% RCF / Net Debt 15.7% 10.0% 14.9% 13.5% 12% -14% Note: Projected financial metrics exclude the potential impact of Vision 2030 as investment decisions have not been made and financing of projects are still to be determined All figures and ratios are calculated using Moody's estimates and standard adjustments. Moody's forecasts (f) or projections (proj.) are our opinion and do not represent the views of the issuers. Periods are financial year-end unless indicated. Source: Moody's Financial Metrics™ This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history. 2 27 May 2021 N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie: Update following ratings affirmation MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE INFRASTRUCTURE AND PROJECT FINANCE Profile N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie (Gasunie) is the owner and operator of the Dutch and north German high-pressure gas transmission systems, and is 100% owned by the Dutch government. Over 2017-20, Gasunie generated 90% of its operating profit from regulated gas transmission activities, with most of these regulated earnings from its Dutch operations. The company's residual earnings relate to its participations in unregulated businesses or businesses exempt from regulation, which generate most of their revenue from long- term contracts. Exhibit 3 Simplified organisational structure as of 31 Decemver 2020 Government of the Netherlands Aaa stable N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie A1/P-1 stable Various non- Regulated gas transmission activities regulated infrastructure Fossil fuel participations, including: EnergyStock B.V.2 (100%) BBL Company V.O.F.4 (60%) Nord Stream A.G.5 (9%) Gasunie Transport Services Gasunie Deutschland (GUD)1 3 (GTS) Gate terminal C.V. (50%) (Germany) (Netherlands) Non-fossil fuel participations, including: Vertogas B.V.2 (100%) New Energy Initiatives (Green Gas, Hydrogen, Heat, CCTS) (1) Gasunie Deutschland (GUD) also has participations in DEUDAN (75%) and NETRA (50%). Gasunie's stake in EUGAL (16.5%, pipeline) is included in GUD; (2) EnergyStock B.V. (fast cycle gas storage services) and Vertogas B.V. (certification authority for green gas, 100% subsidiary) are included in consolidated financials; (3) Gate terminal C.V. (Gate terminal, LNG import terminal) is reported as a joint venture; (4) BBL Company V.O.F (BBL, subsea pipeline) is reported as joint operations; and (5) NordStream (subsea pipeline) is reported as an equity interest. Source: Gasunie and Moody's Investors Service Exhibit 4 Exhibit 5 Split of 2020 revenue by business segment Split of 2020 operating profit by business segment Participations Participations 11% 7% Gasunie Gasunie Deutschland Deutschland 22% 30% Gasunie Gasunie Transport Transport Services Services 63% 67% Excludes inter-segment deductions (-€36.3 million), 2.6% of group revenue. Operating profit for Gasunie Transport Services (GTS) excluding €300 million of Sources: Gasunie and Moody's Investors Service impairment reversal. Sources: Gasunie and Moody's Investors Service 3 27 May 2021 N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie: Update following ratings affirmation MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE INFRASTRUCTURE AND PROJECT FINANCE Detailed credit considerations Low business risk, underpinned by its regulated monopoly gas transmission network operations Around 85%-95% of Gasunie's operating profit stems from the company's regulated network activities operating under two well- defined and relatively stable regulatory regimes in the Netherlands and Germany. We expect the split of regulatory earnings between Gasunie's Dutch and German operations to be around 80-20 through 2026. Furthermore, the fact that the Netherlands' track record of incentive-based regulation is nearly twice as long as Germany's supports our view that the regulatory framework in the Netherlands is both more well established and
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