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Active Portfolio Management: the Preferred Choice in a Bear Market

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Active Portfolio Management: the Preferred Choice in a Bear Market the Banque Cantonale de Genève Magazine | Winter 2017/2018 Active portfolio management: the preferred choice in a bear market Prix de l’Économie genevoise awarded to BCGE Swiss economic prosperity: criteria and challenges? From artificial intelligence to enhanced human intelligence ALTERNATIVE.CH A BANK THAT MOVES TO THE TOP WITH YOU. At your side with new banking services providing security, simplicity and personalization. • Netbanking • Mobile banking • Online payment • Automated Forex platform • Online trading BCGE The Swiss Bank of Geneva_positif.eps Rouge = C: 0 - M: 100 - J: 90 - N: 0 Noir = C: 0 - M: 0 - J: 0 - N: 100 Blanc = C: 0 - M: 0 - J: 0 - N: 0 Gris = C: 0 - M: 0 - J: 0 - N: 50 1816 | GENEVA.ZURICH.LAUSANNE.PARIS.LYON.ANNECY.DUBAI.HONG KONG | BCGE.CH Contents Active portfolio Geneva economic dashboard 2 management: the preferred Geneva, culture and society Between science and fiction: choice in a bear market three Geneva science fiction authors 4 Blaise Goetschin CEO Geneva, a business in action Geneva, at the heart of For decades, proponents of ‘index tracking’ or passive management Firmenich’s development 6 and supporters of active management have stuck stubbornly to their Geneva, a local authority in action positions. Institutional and private investors wonder where to stand Strong population growth for Soral 8 on this controversy to which no definitive conclusion has yet been reached. News BCGE awards its Economics Prizes 10 Active managers take decisions on securities portfolios with total freedom of allocation or selection, éco21 certificate for BCGE 11 apart from initial constraints stipulated in their mandates. This management style seeks to deliver BCGE in Dubai 12 a superior return to the benchmark index for the particular asset class by making differentiated Belén Ferrier, winner of choices of the components and proportions held. When the portfolio’s return beats its benchmark the Prix de l’Artisanat 13 index, this is called ‘outperformance’ or alpha in financial parlance. Outperformance is the end-goal Six years at the service of of active management – an ambitious target and one achieved only when managers comply with all the CERN pension fund 13 the methodological criteria and display stringent discipline in execution. Passive management is less 1816 welcomes its 8,000th investor 13 ambitious – it simply replicates or tracks the index. This straightforward aim can easily be achieved Xpatbking.ch: solutions for expatriates 14 at rather modest cost, justified, in any event, by low added value and practically zero expenditure BCGE Essentials of Finance 2017 on research and analysis. At first sight, this might be seen as a catfight over technicalities. In fact, it focused on artificial intelligence 14 boils down to a fundamental debate about one of the most significant orientations of management BCGE awarded the 2017 philosophy. Prix de l’Économie genevoise 15 Christophe Weber, new Chairman of the The debate is regularly reignited in expert circles and in public. It has enabled some certainties to be Swiss Chinese Chamber of Commerce 15 arrived at. They include the fact that the two approaches are irreconcilable in theory. Consequently, Avantageservice.ch: investors cannot escape having to make a choice of principle in favour of one or the other. Hybrid a first self-service platform 15 approaches have indeed been attempted. Known as ‘core & satellite’ or ‘smart beta’, two symbiotic methods, which we do not have space to consider in detail in this brief editorial, only appear to Economy deliver some sort of solution. A straightforward choice has therefore to be made between a mecha- Swiss economic prosperity: nistic technique and actively piloted management. criteria and challenges? 16 A utopian dream 18 This fundamental dilemma is taking front of stage again now that share valuations have hit new highs. The question is this: if markets correct, on a scale or at a moment in time that cannot be Investment foreseen, which of the two approaches will better protect the portfolio? Investora highlights Banque Cantonale de Genève 19 Empirical data have shown that the best mandate or investment fund managers tend to perform The Synchrony LPP 80 B fund imparts fresh strongly in bear markets. That is understandable, since a correction takes place instantly across the dynamism into 3rd-pillar (3a) assets 20 board through cross-contamination. This phenomenon of a spontaneous parallel shift is fuelled by From artificial intelligence to enhanced the market’s behavioural features, by automated trading and by index-tracking management itself. human intelligence 21 Once the first collective shock has subsided, the market takes stock again and begins to discriminate positively on the basis of more fundamental factors, favouring resilient securities, but exacting a Innovation and digitisation heavier toll on the weakest which had been overvalued. Focus on a study and a book worth reading 25 In such circumstances, amid high market volatility, active management rooted in early individual Credits picking of the finest securities creates a positive return differential. We are not talking about Publisher: Banque Cantonale de Genève, pseudo-active management here, which lacks boldness of approach and remains wedded to the Communications & Investor Relations Department. index with a few minor variations. We are now referring to genuine and authentic active manage- Editor: Hélène De Vos Vuadens. ment which stands by its decisions, notably by unambiguously steering clear of equities or sovereign Coordination: Olivier Schaerrer ([email protected]). bonds that fail to convince the manager or, conversely, by placing more cash in a security beyond Address of the Editorial Board and subscriptions department: its index weighting. Active management has the bonus of offsetting the over-concentration effect Banque Cantonale de Genève, Communications of the index-tracking model which, for its part, is obliged to invest in proportion to the capitalisa- Quai de l’Ile 17, PO Box 2251 – 1211 Geneva 2 tion of each security. These are selection or censorship options which create opportunities for out- Tel. 022 809 31 85 – [email protected]. performance, especially if stock markets experience a hard landing. Hidebound by its arithmetical Print run: 17,300 copies. formula, the index-tracking approach, with its all-encompassing and all-inclusive character, lacks the Creation and graphic design: Alternative.ch. basic freedom to decide not to make a purchase. Printed by: ATAR Roto Presse SA. Copyright: Articles may not be reproduced either in whole Investors should resist the sales pitch, especially highlighting the cheaper cost of passive manage- or in part without the publisher’s consent. ment. Although cost savings may well boost the returns by a few points when the going is good, Translation: Trans-Adapt the drawbacks of being ensnared in the index in turbulent markets should give pause for thought. Photos and illustrations: Alternative communication, The economic fundamentals of these two approaches must be questioned before adopting one of Geneva Library, Laurent Brossy, Frank Henri Jullien, the two religions. One postulates the primacy of judgement and human intelligence, whereas the Laura Keller, G.Maillot, point-of-view.ch, Fred Merz, other is more sceptical and makes do with an elementary algorithm. “Truth and the dawn bring Philippe Schiller, Nicolas Spuhler, Loris Von Siebenthal. light in good time” (Amharic proverb). “The opinions expressed in this magazine are not necessarily those of the publisher.” “Information contained in this document is based on reliable sources, but is not binding on Banque Cantonale de Genève.” BCGE Dialogue Winter 2017 / 2018 | 1 Geneva economic dashboard Economic situation for the current year and forecasts Forecasts Macroeconomy GDP Inflation Unemployment rate 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 Switzerland 1.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.6% 3.4% 3.3% Geneva 1.1% 1.9% 0.6% 0.6% 5.3% 5.3% Eurozone 2.0% 1.8% 1.5% 1.7% 8.8% 7.8% United States 2.3% 2.6% 2.0% 2.5% 4.6% 4.6% Official interest rates 3 months 12 months 18 months Switzerland -0.75% -0.75% -0.75% Eurozone 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% United States 1.50% 1.75% 2.00% 10-year interest rates 3 months 12 months 18 months Switzerland 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% Eurozone 0.5% 0.7% 1.1% United States 2.3% 2.8% 2.6% Forex and oil 3 months 12 months 18 months EUR/CHF 1.13 1.13 1.20 USD/CHF 0.98 0.98 0.96 EUR/USD 1.15 1.15 1.25 Crude oil – Brent (USD/barrel) 55 60 65 Source: Thomson Reuters & BCGE Timid and mixed recovery Geneva GDP % Annual variation in real terms 6 The improvement detected in Geneva in the first half 5 continued gingerly in the third quarter, although the 4 pattern varied from one sector to another. In the hotel 3 trade and financial services, optimism has been the order 2 1 of the day, whereas progress has been less recent in 0 industry, construction and restaurants. Retail trade has -1 been enjoying the welcome recovery experienced since the -2 start of the year, but is being unsettled by unsatisfactory -3 progress of business in October. Lastly, forecasts are -4 -5 looking more upbeat, general economic conditions are 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018* favouring growth, and Geneva’s GDP is expected to rise by 1.9% in 2018. *BCGE forecasts Source: BCGE for the forecasts, CREA for historical data Employment trend in full-time equivalents Employment picks up slightly Annual variation, quarterly figures % On the jobs front, the signals are looking good. Firstly, the 3.5 employment index in full-time equivalents (FTE) rose for the 3 second quarter in a row (+0.2%) after falling throughout 2.5 2016. However, FTE employment growth was slower than 2 1.5 in the three previous months (0.6%).
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