LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR a DAILY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE Wednesday, November 11, 2020

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR A DAILY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org Wednesday, November 11, 2020

BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TODAY’S NEWS Diego Arria Director, Columbus Group POLITICAL Devry Boughner Vorwerk How Well Is Brazil’s Police Open CEO, DevryBV Sustainable Strategies Fire on Femicide Joyce Chang Global Head of Research, Military Fighting Protesters at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Cancún City Hall Paula Cifuentes Director of Economic & Fiscal Affairs, Deforestation? Mexican police officers opened Latin America & Canada, fire on protesters who tried to Philip Morris International forcefully enter Cancún’s city Marlene Fernández hall during a protest against Corporate Vice President for femicides. Four journalists were Government Relations, Arcos Dorados (McDonald’s) wounded. Page 2 Peter Hakim President Emeritus, Inter-American Dialogue BUSINESS Donna Hrinak Senior VP, Corporate Affairs, Royal Caribbean Group Cargill Announces Jon E. Huenemann Sale of Operation Former Corporate and Government Senior Executive in Venezuela Brazil’s government has been using the country’s military to fight deforestation. Defense Minis- James R. Jones U.S.-based food conglomerate ter Fernando Azevedo (second from right) is pictured last month at the site of an illegal logging Chairman, operation. // Photo: Brazilian Defense Ministry. Cargill said it has agreed to sell Monarch Global Strategies its unit in Venezuela. Financial Craig A. Kelly Brazilian Vice President Hamilton Mourão said Oct. 26 details were not disclosed. Senior Director, Americas Page 3 Int’l Gov’t Relations, Exxon Mobil that the government will extend through April the military’s John Maisto deployment to fight deforestation in the Amazon. President Director, U.S. Education POLITICAL Finance Group Q Jair Bolsonaro ordered the deployment last May, repeating Nicolás Mariscal a similar action from last year when fires spiked in the rain forest. How Peru Inaugurates Chairman, Grupo Marhnos effective has Brazil’s military been at fighting Amazon deforestation? New President Thomas F. McLarty III To what extent has Brazil’s use of technology, such as satellites, aided After Ouster Chairman, McLarty Associates the military’s efforts in the Amazon? Can new technologies play a bigger of Vizcarra Beatrice Rangel role in combating environmental degradation and illicit activity in Brazil, Manuel Merino, who had been Director, and should multilateral institutions help in financing such efforts? serving as the head of Peru’s AMLA Consulting LLC Congress, was sworn in as the Jaana Remes country’s new president, following Partner, McKinsey Global Institute Anya Prusa, senior associate at the Brazil Institute and Slat- the abrupt ouster of President Ernesto Revilla er Family Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center Martín Vizcarra. Head of Latin American for Scholars: “Deforestation will persist in the Amazon as Page 2 Economics, Citi Gustavo Roosen long as the economic framework incentivizes deforestation: Chairman of the Board, A cleared land is worth more than forested land; clearing new land is cheap- Envases Venezolanos Andrés Rozental er than improving the poor soils of already-cleared land; and the chances President, Rozental & of getting caught and fined—or going to jail—for land-grabbing and illicit Asociados deforestation are increasingly low. Technology can play a substantial Shelly Shetty Managing Director, Sovereigns role in changing this economic calculus, from better monitoring and Fitch Ratings enforcement to the development of new economic markets that promote sustainable activities in the Amazon region. The agencies traditionally tasked with combating deforestation in Brazil, including IBAMA, ICM- Bio and the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), have long been recognized as global leaders in the technical expertise to combat deforestation. However, budget cuts and understaffing, as well as the Merino // Photo: Peruvian Gov- ernment. Continued on page 3

POLITICAL NEWS under pressure amid corruption allegations. NEWS BRIEFS In ousting Vizcarra, Congress declared him Peru Swears in New morally unfit to be president, and lawmakers Belizeans Head to Polls said he handled the Covid-19 pandemic poorly. Today to Select New Gov’t President a Day After Vizcarra was also accused of taking more than $630,000 in bribes in exchange for construc- Belizeans will head to the polls today to Vizcarra’s Ouster tion contracts when he was the governor of the elect a new government, as the ruling United small Moquegua department in southern Peru. Democratic Party, led by Patrick Faber as its Manuel Merino, who had been serving as the Vizcarra has denied wrongdoing but quickly candidate for prime minister, seeks an unprec- head of Peru’s Congress, was sworn in Tuesday agreed to leave after Congress voted to remove edented fourth consecutive term in office, the as the country’s new president, a day after him from office. “History and the Peruvian Associated Press reported. Longtime Prime lawmakers swiftly and overwhelmingly ousted people will judge the decisions made,” he said Minister Dean Barrow is retiring from electoral his predecessor, Martín Vizcarra, El Comercio Monday. politics. Faber is facing John Briceño of the reported. “This is a difficult moment for the main opposition People’s United Party. Beliz- country,” said Merino, who placed his hand on a eans will vote to fill 31 seats in the House of Bible and donned the red and white presidential Police Open Fire on Representatives. sash along with a face mask, the Associated Femicide Protesters Press reported. “Today, the country does not look at the future with hope, but with worry.” in Cancún, Four Hurt Puerto Rico’s Elections Merino vowed to proceed with the country’s Commission Finds 100 presidential election, scheduled for next April, Mexican police late Monday opened fire on protesters who tried to forcefully enter the city Briefcases With Ballots hall in Cancún during a demonstration against Puerto Rico’s elections commission said Today, the country the high levels of femicide in the country, Tuesday that it had found more than 100 does not look at the The Guardian reported. Four journalists were briefcases with uncounted ballots from the future with hope, injured, including two who suffered bullet Nov. 3 general election in the U.S. territory, the but with worry.” wounds. Police reportedly detained eight pro- Associated Press reported. Elections com- — Manuel Merino testers. Approximately 10 women are murdered mission president Francisco Rosado said the in Mexico daily, sparking outrage within an briefcases were in a secured vault, blaming the increasingly visible feminist movement that situation on what he said was an underfunded and also work to improve the economy, fight has organized several widespread protests this and understaffed administrative board that crime and improve health care to help Peru be- year. The demonstration in Cancún occurred was in charge of counting record numbers of come better prepared for another wave of coro- after the body of a 20-year-old woman, Bianca absentee and early votes. “Every vote will be navirus infections. ‘We can’t divide the country,” “Alexis” Lorenzana, was discovered in Quintana counted,” Rosado added. he said. However, in Lima and other cities, Roo state on Mexico’s Caribbean coast, The divisions were clear. Hundreds of anti-Merino Guardian reported. President Andrés Manuel protesters gathered outside Congress, banging López Obrador has sparked anger for what pots and pans as the new president was inau- critics see as a downplaying of gender issues. Event That Halted Brazil gurated, the AP reported. Protesters and police Following a protest in Mexico City in February Sinovac Trial Unrelated clashed in Lima and other locations, with some during which masked women sprayed the to Vaccine: Institute carrying signs reading, “Merino isn’t my pres- walls of the national palace with graffiti and The “serious adverse event” that led Brazilian ident,” The Wall Street Journal reported. Daily blood-red paint, the president suggested that health authorities to halt clinical trials of the newspaper La República called Vizcarra’s oust- his conservative opponents were behind the potential Covid-19 vaccine of China’s Sinovac er a coup, and many analysts and residents demonstrations and blamed the media for had no relation to the vaccine itself, the direc- agreed. “It’s a coup d’état,” taxi driver Paul “manipulating” the issue. He has also said tor of Brazil’s Butantan biomedical institute Mendoza told the AP. “Now we’re going to have most emergency calls denouncing domestic said Tuesday, CNN reported. Sinovac began inflation, a recession, and we won’t be able to violence in the country, which reached 26,000 Phase 3 clinical trials with the institute in get ahead because of the pandemic.” Merino is in March, were mostly “false,” though he did late July. The government of São Paulo state, Peru’s third president in less than three years. not provide proof. [Editor’s note: See Q&A on where the trial is being carried out, said a trial In March 2018, Vizcarra took over from his pre- femicides in Mexico in the Feb. 27 issue of the volunteer had died and that the death had been decessor, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, who resigned Latin America Advisor.] registered as a suicide, Reuters reported.

BUSINESS NEWS FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 1

decision to transfer authority for combating The numbers do not lie. In fact, they prove U.S.-Based Cargill deforestation and fires in the Amazon to the the tragic failure of military-led environmen- Announces Sale of military, have left much of this expertise on tal enforcement, touted by Bolsonaro as a the table. INPE’s world-class satellite images means to combat Amazon deforestation. Venezuela Operation and data, for example, are no longer being Brazilian civilian space agency INPE’s use of used to target violators and enforce environ- satellite technology and scientific analysis U.S.-based food conglomerate Cargill on mental regulations. Instead, technology’s have played a fundamental role in tracking Tuesday said it had agreed to sell its unit in potential to combat environmental degrada- Venezuela to a group of investors represented tion and illicit activity is being harnessed by by local firm Grupo Puig as well as Phoenix nongovernmental groups, researchers and The numbers do Global Investment, Reuters reported. The the private sector. A handful of Indigenous not lie. In fact, they transaction involves all of Cargill’s operations tribes are using drones to track and report prove the tragic in the South American country, including deforestation from illicit logging, ranching failure of military- facilities that produce flour, pasta, cooking and wildcat miners. Under pressure from led environmental oil and animal feed, said Cargill, which is investors, a major meatpacker has vowed to enforcement...” headquartered in Minnetonka, Minn. “The sale use blockchain technology to monitor its en- — Christian Poirier seeks to ensure the continuity of operations tire Brazilian supply chain by 2025, including in the country [and] access to quality goods indirect suppliers, to curb cattle laundering. and services that the company has provided Other companies are developing precise, Amazon deforestation over the last 30 years, over 34 years in Venezuela,” the privately held real-time tracking of carbon emissions to and in the process have informed public poli- company said. Cargill did not disclose financial create functional carbon offset markets that cies that effectively contained deforestation. details of the sale, Phoenix Global Invest- offer financial incentives for conservation However, since Bolsonaro took office, he ment did not respond to Reuters’ request for and lower-impact agriculture. Artificial intel- has repeatedly demoralized the agency with comment, and the wire service was unable to ligence can be used to monitor the health of unfounded criticism, fired key INPE officials obtain a comment from Grupo Puig. For years, trees and forests, and predict which areas and undermined its organizational struc- multinational corporations have shuttered their are most susceptible to fire and disease. In ture. In doing so, his regime has made the units in Venezuela amid restrictive regulations the absence of government action to enforce country far less effective in tackling illegal that President Nicolás Maduro’s government environmental regulations, these types of deforestation and ensuing fires. By ignoring imposed and which made the companies’ initiatives have the potential to help reshape the technical expertise of environmental operations inviable. Maduro relaxed those the economic structures that incentivize professionals to give positions to military restrictions last year, but several companies land clearing.” officials with limited environmental knowl- are still struggling there because of a plunge edge, the regime also showed its true colors, in consumer spending that has resulted from Christian Poirier, program direc- allowing deforestation and fires to explode years of economic contraction and soaring tor at Amazon Watch: “Since last while disregarding the very tools capable of inflation, Reuters reported. Two weeks ago, the year’s catastrophic Amazon fires containing Amazon destruction.” U.S. Chamber of Commerce released a survey A profoundly damaged Bolsonaro’s that said 80 percent of Venezuelan-Americans reputation and jeopardized key global mar- Thomas Dolzall, defense ana- support U.S. companies operating in Venezue- ket relationships, his regime launched Opera- lyst at Forecast International: la. “In countries like Venezuela, American com- tion Green Brazil. This was an attempt to “Over the past four decades, panies are often the most significant source show its response to spiking environmental A Brazilian institutions have con- of financial support to employees, employees’ crime and impunity by deploying hundreds ducted pioneering work into the utilization of families, and their communities,” said the U.S. of soldiers to police the Amazon. However, advanced new technologies to observe and Chamber of Commerce’s senior vice president between May and August 2020, while the op- contain sources of environmental degrada- for the Americas, Neil Herrington. “Forcing U.S. eration unfolded in the Amazon, the number tion in the Amazon rain forest. The state’s companies out of Venezuela will not accelerate of fires reached 39,187, essentially the same effective deployment of these tools has only a return to democracy. It will only increase as in 2019 (38,952). This October’s 17,326 become more critical to securing the region’s suffering and slow economic recovery, while Amazon hotspots were more than double future, as shifting climatic conditions and allowing America’s global competitors to fill the the number of fires detected last October. unregulated economic development have vacuum.” Continued on page 4

FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 3 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR is published every business day by the Inter-American Dialogue, Copyright © 2020 steadily accelerated the rate of deforesta- 2019, which reached record levels. There- tion and heightened the long-term danger to fore, despite the decrease, the numbers Erik Brand the rain forest’s ecology. The scale of 2019’s remained higher than the historical average. Publisher [email protected] wildfire crisis jolted the presidential admin- The military has various technological istration of Jair Bolsonaro to better leverage devices to support its operations. Impor- Gene Kuleta Editor the federal government’s technological tantly, it has access to INPE’s Deter-Intenso, [email protected] assets in tandem with the manpower largess which generates an updated image every 24 Anastasia Chacón González and projection capacity of the armed forces Reporter & Associate Editor toward these ends. Geospatial assets man- [email protected] aged under the National Institute for Space Operação Verde Research (INPE) provide authorities with the Brasil 2 has not yet

means to identify and track emerging and demonstrated evident Michael Shifter, President active crisis points in real time. Such assets effectiveness.” Rebecca Bill Chavez, Nonresident Senior Fellow can be a powerful mechanism for facilitating — Mariana Lyrio Sergio Bitar, Nonresident Senior Fellow the agile and efficient allocation of military Joan Caivano, Senior Advisor resources toward managing the deforesta- Michael Camilleri, Director, Rule of Law Program tion challenge. Yet, despite the bevy of hours of five critical areas that hold about Kevin Casas-Zamora, Nonresident Senior Fellow additional resources recently devoted to 45 percent of the deforestation in 2020. The Héctor Castro Vizcarra, Nonresident Senior Fellow containment, recent data released by INPE images started being disclosed in February Julia Dias Leite, Nonresident Senior Fellow indicates that these efforts have generated and show the state of deforestation even Ariel Fiszbein, Director, Education Program only ephemeral success in forestalling the with the presence of clouds. One possible Peter Hakim, President Emeritus pace of ecological destruction in 2020. explanation for the still incipient results of Nora Lustig, Nonresident Senior Fellow Responsibility lies primarily with federal eco- the operation, despite the advanced technol- Margaret Myers, Director, Asia and nomic and developmental policies that act at ogy, is the lack of coordination between the Latin America Program Manuel Orozco, Senior Fellow cross-purposes with the cause of environ- military and the Institute of Environment and Xiaoyu Pu, Nonresident Senior Fellow mental protection in the Amazon. Funda- Natural Resources (IBAMA), the agency that Jeffrey Puryear, Senior Fellow mentally, neither cutting-edge technological is traditionally responsible for inspection Mateo Samper, Nonresident Senior Fellow solutions nor localized acts of military valor actions in the Amazon. As for international Tamar Solnik, Director, Finance & Administration can compensate for the absence of sound financing, U.S. President-elect Joe Biden has Lisa Viscidi, Director, Energy Program policy planning at the national level, leaving already said he wants to organize a $20 bil- Denisse Yanovich, Director of Development, regulatory and military personnel locked in a lion fund for the Amazon. Brazilian President External Relations & Special Projects Sisyphean struggle.” Jair Bolsonaro rejected the proposal, but dip- lomats linked to the Democrats believe that Latin America Advisor is published every business day, except for major U.S. holidays, Mariana Lyrio, consultant at the Brazilian government won’t oppose the by the Inter-American Dialogue at BMJ Consultores Associados: plan once it becomes official. Considering 1155 15th Street NW, Suite 800 Washington, DC 20005 “Operação Verde Brasil 2 has the history of the paralyzed Amazon Fund, www.thedialogue.org not yet demonstrated evident ef- financing from multilateral institutions has A ISSN 2163-7962 fectiveness. Data from the National Institute proven useful in combating deforestation in Subscription inquiries are welcomed at for Space Research (INPE) show that, up the Amazon.” [email protected] to Oct. 23, there was a 37 percent increase The opinions expressed by the members of the Board of in deforestation, as compared to the whole The Advisor welcomes comments on its Q&A Advisors and by guest commentators do not necessarily month of October 2019. Deforestation section. Readers can write editor Gene Kuleta represent those of the publisher. The analysis is the sole declined in July, August and September, as at [email protected]. view of each commentator and does not necessarily represent the views of their respective employers or firms. compared to the data from those months in The information in this report has been obtained from reliable sources, but neither its accuracy and completeness, nor the opinions based thereon, are guaranteed. If you have any questions relating to the contents of this publication, contact the editorial offices of the Inter-American Dialogue. Contents of this report may not be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted without prior written permission from the publisher.