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China Lodging Group, Ltd (ADR) CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted by CFA Society Shanghai, China Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance China Lodging Group, Ltd (ADR) (NASDAQ:HTHT) Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance $ Price of HTHT and NASDAQ Rating: BUY 30 Target Price (USD): $27.77 25 Price, 11 Nov 13 (USD): $24.69 20 Upside (%): 12.47% 15 10 5 0 Market Data HTHT NASDAQ 52-week high $24.90 Source: Bloomberg 52-week low $13.90 Investment Summary Previous close $24.69 HTHT’s fundamentals support a BUY After analyzing HTHT’s balance sheet, income statement, and using two appropriate Market Cap $1528 M stock valuation models, FCFE and EV/EBITDA, we have set a target price of $27.77 for HTHT by the end of the year, an upside of 12.47% from its current price of $24.69. We Outstanding shares(Mil) 61.12 believe HTHT warrants such a valuation and a buy because of its record of strong Trailing P/E Ratio 44.35x revenue growth and a financing free aggressive expansion strategy. HTHT’s financials EV/EBITDA 9.40x are strong as it has zero debt and being a cash-based business, it has high liquidity. Industry leader in revenue growth, revenue per available room and expansion plans In the past two years, HTHT has outperformed its competitors in the key performance indicator of Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) and is projected to do so again in 2013. It also boasts the industry’s highest revenue growth rate, which is bolstered and supported by HTHT pursuing the industry’s most aggressive expansion plan. Figure 1 RevPAR of Competitors RMB ￥ 190 RevPAR 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 Home Inn Jin Jiang 7 Days China Lodging Source: Company website and press release HTHT’s multi-brand strategy diversifies risk and supports expansion HTHT’s multi-brand, multi-price segment strategy diversifies the companies risk while increasing its potential reward. As HTHT continues to develop its mid-scale and upscale brands, it will better position itself to profit from increased domestic tourism spending across all consumption levels. This diversification away from its core economy hotel brand Hanting also diversifies its risk to any factors that might more negatively impact one price segment of the industry. For example, the recent Chinese government campaign of austerity has significantly affected the revenues and occupancy rates for upscale hotels. This multiple brand strategy will support HTHT’s planned expansion by allowing it to aggressively enter new markets in three different, non-competing price-segments. PAGE 1 Emphasis on customer service HTHT prides itself on customer satisfaction and is continuously seeking ways to improve the customer experience. Recently, at select hotels, HTHT began testing its 40 Table 1 Hotel Operation Breakdown of HTHT second check in and zero second check out process. Further, HTHT continues to enhance customer loyalty through expansion of its membership program. In the first Hotel Mode # of hotels in # of rooms in # of hotels in and No. for operation(Q3) operation(Q3) pipeline(Q3) two quarters of 2013, HTHT’s membership program grew by 38%, from 8.4 million to HTHT 11.6 million members. By comparison, the much larger Home inn’s membership Q3 Q3 Period 2013 2013 2013 2013 program only grew by 20% from 11.9 to 14.3 million members. Bookings from HTHT’s Leased 24 538 2235 62964 76 members, on average, contribute more than 80% of rooms sold per night. Thus sustained membership growth reinforces sustained revenue growth. Manachised 98 777 9320 78866 379 Franchised 3 26 382 2664 Aggressive expansion plan to lower tier cities and new price segments Currently, HTHT’s hotel locations remain concentrated in the Yangzi River Delta (≈ Total 125 1341 11937 144494 4555 38%), the Bohai Economic Rim (≈22%), and in first and second tier cities (≈63%). Source: Company website and press release HTHT’s growth strategy thus centers on expansion to fast growing lower tier cities and ≈ underrepresented regions such as the Pearl River Delta ( 6%). Further, the midscale hotel market is very fragmented as branded hotels make up only 4% of the entire Table 2 Operating Result of HTHT market. HTHT plans to take advantage of this fragmentation by increasing its number of midscale hotels from 89 to around 900 by 2021, the fastest planned expansion rate in HTHT Operating Results For the 13Q3 quarter ended the industry. Amongst its competitors, HTHT is the current leader in the midscale 2012.9.30 2013.6.30 2013.9.30 market, with more than double the number of hotels than its competition. Occupancy rate Favorable macroeconomic factors and government policies Leased 97% 90% 93% Expenditure on both domestic leisure and business travel has increased dramatically in the past decade, a trend that is projected to continue in the upcoming one. Moreover, Manachised 98% 92% 95% recent government decisions and policies bode well for HTHT’s growth strategy. The Blended 97% 91% 94% most recent five year plan provided for continued investment in the country’s transportation infrastructure and in 2013 the government outlined a new tourism Average daily room rate(in RMB) policy which focused on developing domestic tourism attractions and providing citizens Leased 188 190 193 with more off days for travel. Manachised 177 176 180 Manachise model allows for rapid growth with minimal risk Blended 183 182 186 A manchise hotel is one that HTHT controls quality by appointing the on-site manager but HTHT is not responsible for capital expenditure and instead receives a fixed fee of RevPAR(in RMB) 20% of annual revenue, not profit. The manachise model fuels HTHT’s rapid expansion Leased 183 172 179 by allowing for minimum capital expenditure and is a growing trend amongst all firms in the industry. HTHT’s percentage of manachise hotels has increased from 13% in 2008 Manachised 173 162 171 to 58% presently and the company plans for 75% of all new hotels to operate under the Blended 178 167 175 manachise model. Source: Company website and press release A proven track-record of innovation in the travel industry HTHT’s cofounder and CEO Qi Ji brings boasts a wealth of experience and success in the Table 3 Brand breakdown of HTHT travel industry. Under Qi Ji, HTHT has become the industry’s leader in innovation and Hotel Brand No. of Industry Segment Price per night relentlessly aims to improve the customer experience. Examples of HTHT’s track record Hotels of innovation include its extensive online booking platform, online room selection, Han Ting 1165 Budget(business) RMB 150-300 interactive games and advertising stations at airports and its recently launched 40 second check in 0 second check out process. Moreover, HTHT’s COO, Mr. Yunheng Xue HI-inn 72 Budget RMB 100-200 brings over 16 years of experience in the IT industry to the company, experience that JI Hotel 56 Midscale RMB 250-500 will help HTHT stay ahead of its competition in the form of technological and new media innovation. Starway Hotel 48 Midscale RMB 250-600 Joya Hotel* 1 Upscale RMB 500-1000 Business Description Man Xin 1 Upscale RMB 800-1000 China Lodging (HTHT) was established in 2007 by Mr. Qi Ji, who saw an opening in the Data: as of September 30, 2013; Source: HTHT Website Chinese market for economy hotels that target business travelers, a rapidly growing segment of China’s travel industry. Prioritizing the customer experience and modeled after economy western chains such as Ibis, HTHT’s HanTing brand quickly became one of the largest hotel chains in China. Three years after its founding, HTHT was successfully listed on NASDAQ on March 26th 2010. Under founder and CEO, Mr. Qi Ji, HTHT has pursued a policy of rapid expansion, quickly going from its first hotel and one brand in 2007 to over 1200 hotels and five brands today. Mr Ji and HTHT plan to continue on this torrid expansion pace and have set an impressive target to operate around 5000 hotels by 2021. To achieve this target, HTHT’s future expansion plans center on growing its hotel holdings across all price segments, especially the midscale and upscale segments. A description of HTHT’s six brands are in table 3. HTHT employs three different hotel operating styles: Lease, Manachise, and Franchise. PAGE 2 Currently, HTHT’s operating breakdown is: Lease- 538, Manachise-777, and Franchise – 26. Franchise hotels are limited to the Starway Brand which was acquired in 2012. CEO and co-founder Qi Ji has a track record of innovation in the travel industry, having previously founded and served as CEO for two other well-known Chinese travel Figure 2 Residents per capita income and growth of retail sales companies: C-trip and Home Inns. Mr. Qi has lofty goals for HTHT, expecting to become % % the largest hotel chain in the world by 2020. HTHT is well on its way towards that goal. 24 18 It has signed loyalty contracts with over 150 of Fortune’s Global 500 companies and 22 16 260 of China's top 500 companies. HTHT currently employs over 30,000 employees and 14 possesses a loyal membership base of over 11 million individuals in over 190 cities. 20 12 18 10 16 8 Macro Analysis 6 14 Political: Continued government investment in infrastructure 4 Local and national Chinese governments continue to invest in and develop 12 2 transportation infrastructure, which will continue to support growth in the hospitality and tourism industries. At the end of 2012 in conjunction with the 12th Five Year Plan, China’s National Development and Reform Commission green lighted 25 major railway MoM: Retail sales YoY: Residents' income[R] and 13 highway construction projects throughout the country.
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