Market Feasibility Study for a Proposed Hotel in the City of Eloy Pinal County, Arizona
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MARKET FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR A PROPOSED HOTEL IN THE CITY OF ELOY PINAL COUNTY, ARIZONA Date of Report: February 28, 2020 FOR Mr. Jeff Fairman Economic Development Specialist City of Eloy 595 North C Street Eloy, AZ 85131 February 28, 2020 Mr. Jeff Fairman Economic Development Specialist City of Eloy 595 North C Street Eloy, AZ 85131 RE: Proposed Hotel City of Eloy, Pinal County, Arizona Dear Mr. Fairman: In fulfillment of our engagement letter, we completed our study of the market demand and economic feasibility for the proposal to develop an upper-midscale quality level limited-service hotel in the City of Eloy, Pinal County, Arizona. The study is based upon market conditions observed as of the date of our market inspection on December 4, 2019, and research conducted in December 2019 and January 2020. The city is considering multiple sites entirely within its jurisdiction for the development of the proposed hotel, all of which are near, or along Interstate 10. The hotel would be developed by a to be determined private company. Assumptions The conclusions contained in this report are based upon a review of information provided by you and on-site field work in the market area, which is described in the Scope of Assignment section. As in all studies of this type, the conclusions do not take into account or make provisions for the effect of any sharp rise or decline in local or general economic conditions not presently foreseeable. The estimated results are based on competent and efficient management of the proposed hotel, as well as an aggressive marketing program. We assume the subject will hire appropriate management personnel to operate and market the hotel. We assume that the subject will operate as a branded hotel affiliated with a major national franchise. We assume the proposed hotel will open January 1, 2022. We presume no significant change in the competitive position of the hotel industry in the area from that as set forth in this report. We do not warrant that the estimates will be attained, but they have been conscientiously prepared on the basis of information obtained and our experience in the hotel industry. It is expressly understood that the scope of this study and the report thereon do not include the possible impact of building regulations, permitting requirements, or other restrictions concerning the project, except where such matters have been brought to our attention and are set forth in this report. Cleveland, Ohio ● 216-228-7000 www.hladvisors.com San Antonio, Texas ● 210-319-5440 Corporate Headquarters: 14805 Detroit Avenue, Suite 420, Cleveland, Ohio 44107-3921 Mr. Jeff Fairman February 28, 2020 Page 2 This report and its contents are intended solely for the information of our client for internal use relative to determining the project’s feasibility. The report should not be relied upon for any other purpose. Neither our report nor any of its contents nor any reference to Hotel & Leisure Advisors, LLC (H&LA) may be disseminated online or included or quoted in any document, offering circular, registration statement, prospectus, sales brochure, other appraisal, or other agreement without our prior written approval. Such permission will not be unreasonably withheld. We offer additional consulting services on this proposed property as the scope of the development is finalized. We are available to prepare a full narrative appraisal report, economic impact study, or management company analysis for the proposed development upon your request. We appreciate the opportunity to be of service to the City of Eloy and look forward to working with you again. Respectfully submitted, Hotel & Leisure Advisors, LLC David J. Sangree, MAI, ISHC President Adam Zarczynski, CHIA Associate MARKET FEASIBILITY STUDY REPORT FOR A PROPOSED HOTEL - ELOY MULTIPLE SITES ELOY, PINAL COUNTY, ARIZONA TABLE OF CONTENTS A. INTRODUCTION Scope of the Assignment .......................................................................... A-1 Executive Summary................................................................................ A-2 Extraordinary Assumptions and Hypothetical Conditions.............................. A-8 Competency of the Consultants................................................................ A-9 Standard Conditions ............................................................................... A-9 B. AREA ANALYSIS AND DESCRIPTIVE DATA Area Review .......................................................................................... B-1 Neighborhood and Site Analysis ...............................................................B-12 Description of Projected/Recommended Improvements ...............................B-24 Franchise Affiliation Analysis ....................................................................B-26 Development Costs ................................................................................B-29 C. MARKET ANALYSIS National Lodging Overview ...................................................................... C-1 Eloy Regional Area Lodging Overview ....................................................... C-9 Competitive Lodging Market Overview ......................................................C-10 Projected Market Occupancy ....................................................................C-30 Demand Interviews ................................................................................C-31 D. SUBJECT OCCUPANCY AND AVERAGE DAILY RATE ANALYSIS SWOT Analysis of Subject Property........................................................... D-1 Projected Subject Occupancy ................................................................... D-2 Estimated Average Daily Rate .................................................................. D-6 E. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS Introduction .......................................................................................... E-1 Income and Expense Analysis .................................................................. E-3 Prospective Financial Analysis in Inflated Dollars ........................................E-13 Feasibility Analysis .................................................................................E-17 F. CERTIFICATION ...................................................................................... F-1 ADDENDA Qualifications ............................................................................ Addendum I STR Report............................................................................... Addendum II Franchise Fact File .................................................................... Addendum III City of Eloy Business License ..................................................... Addendum IV Proposed Hotel - Eloy, Arizona Introduction A-1 SCOPE OF THE ASSIGNMENT Jeff Fairman with the City of Eloy retained Hotel & Leisure Advisors, LLC to estimate the potential market feasibility of the development of a hotel at one of three sites in Eloy. We made a number of independent investigations and analyses while preparing this study, including: Evaluated the subject sites and their relationship to potential demand generators as well as attributes relative to the lodging competitors. Interviewed representatives of the chamber of commerce, assessor’s office, and city, county, and economic development officials, to collect information concerning the proposed sites and region. Interviewed managers or owners of existing and proposed competitive hotel properties. Interviewed representatives of various hotel chains to determine performance of area hotels and proposed new supply additions. Interviewed representatives of area attractions to determine usage and new supply additions. Conducted demand interviews and research with potential users of the proposed facility. Consulted various agencies and databases for demographic data, land use policies and trends, growth estimates, and employment data. We also relied on data retained in our office, which is updated regularly for use in all assignments. Completed a physical inspection of the subject properties and the area. Jeff Fairman provided the subject property data. In addition to the subject’s specific information, we considered relevant market data in determining the projections used in our cash flow analysis. We based the financial analysis primarily upon the probable operating experience of the property relative to gross operating revenues, typical expense levels, and resultant net cash flow. We estimated operating revenues utilizing market data relative to industry standards and comparable properties in the subject area. We estimated expense levels based upon industry standards and operating histories of similar properties. We estimated the financial projections for the subject facility for 11 years, beginning January 1, 2022. Proposed Hotel - Eloy, Arizona Introduction A-2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The City of Eloy is exploring the possibility of a hotel development and have identified three potential sites on which the hotel could be developed. The three sites are each at one of the three exits on Interstate 10 that runs through Eloy (Exit 200 Sunland Gin Road, Exit 203 Toltec Highway, and Exit 208 Sunshine Boulevard). The Sunland Gin site contains approximately 631 acres, the site at the Toltec Highway exit contains 13.33 acres, and the site along Sunshine Boulevard contains more than 1,500 acres. The following map shows the three locations being considered. Proposed Hotel - Eloy, Arizona Introduction A-3 Proposed Hotel - Eloy, Arizona Introduction A-4