Ipsos Croatia
EU CBS IN ADRIA REGION
Paris, Dec 2015
Ipsos 2012 1 EU CBS IN ADRIA REGION
1. Adria region
2. CBS in Adria region
3. MCD
4. Correlations
2 1. ADRIA REGION
Name: • Adria or Adriatic region (business people) • West Balkan (politicians)
3 1. ADRIA REGION
8 Countries / 25M citizens
7 nations & 7 official languages
6 currencies
4 countries on the refugees route
3 big religions
2 letters
1 Nikola TESLA
4 1. ADRIA REGION
Negative:
• WW1 started in Sarajevo (Bosnia - 1914)
• Last war in Europe took place there
• Balkan refugee routes
• Low GDP growth
• High unemployment rate
Positive:
• Tennis, basketball, football, water ball, handball, …
• Adriatic sea,…..
5 1. ADRIA REGION
GDP per capita PPP 2012 2013 2014 % of EU EU 28 34.950 35.300 36.200 100% Albania 9.667 9.926 10.429 29% Bosna 9.370 9.550 9.923 27% Croatia 21.114 21.351 21.252 59% Kosovo* 8.388 8.613 8.804 24% Macedonia 11.874 12.468 13.142 36% Montenegro 13.589 14.136 14.323 40% Serbia 12.806 13.020 12.660 35% Slovenia 28.450 28.859 29.917 83% World Bank, Eurostat GDP per capita, PPP (current international $), *Est 2012, 2013
6 1. ADRIA REGION
GDP growth (annual %)
2012 2013 2014 EU 28 -0,5 0,2 1,4 Slovenia -2,6 -1,0 2,6 Croatia -2,2 -0,9 -0,4 Kosovo -3,0 8,7 2,8 Macedonia -0,5 2,7 3,8 Montenegro -2,5 3,3 1,5 Serbia -1,0 2,6 -1,8 Albania 1,6 1,4 1,9 Bosnia & Herzegovina -1,2 2,5 1,2
World Bank - annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local currency. Aggregates are based on constant 2005 U.S. dollars. Eurostat 7 2. EU CBS IN ADRIA REGION
Slovenia: since 1995 CSO
Croatia: IPSOS • Consumer since 1999 (started by Croatian Central Bank) • Business since May 2008
Macedonia: since May 2008 IPSOS Montenegro: since May 2012 IPSOS & CBM / ISSP (possible changes from 2016)
Serbia: since may 2012 CSO
Albania: coming soon (may 2016) Open, evaluation process in place
Bosna & Herzegovina and Kosovo: not yet 8 2. PUBLISHING & USAGE OF RESULTS
Serbia and Montenegro still do not publish results (to short period)
Slovenia:
• results are regularly and professionally published by CSO
• Paper: „Finanace” (regularly); „Delo” (occasionally)
• TV stations (occasionally): RTV Slo, POP TV, Planet TV
• WEB sites (regularly): siol.net, sta.si, rtvslo.si, 24ur.com
Main users:
• Central Bank of Slovenia („Bilten”)
• UMAR - Office for macroeconomic analysis („Economic mirror”)
9 1. PUBLISHING & USAGE OF RESULTS
Croatia (since 2008):
• results are regularly and professionally published by Croatian National Bank (partner in BCS in Croatia)
• very occasionally by daily paper
Main users (still very passive, test mode):
• Croatian National Bank
• Institute of Economics, Zagreb
Macedonia (since 2008):
• results are regularly and professionally published by National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia 10 2. AVAILABILITY OF BCS IN ADRIA
Industry Reference series* BCS survey data ** Volume of Ind. Production - monthly INDU 1 Slovenia Yes Yes 2 Croatia Yes Yes 3 Macedonia Yes Yes 4 Montenegro Yes Yes 5 Serbia Yes No 6 Albania No No 7 Bosnia & Herzegovina Yes No 8 Kosovo No No * Eurostat ** European Commission
11 2. AVAILABILITY OF BCS IN ADRIA
Retail trade Reference series* BCS survey data **
Turnover and volume of sales in retail trade - monthly data RETA 1 Slovenia Yes Yes
2 Croatia Yes Yes (2008)
3 Macedonia No Yes (2008)
4 Montenegro Yes Yes (2012) 5 Serbia Yes No 6 Albania No No 7 Bosnia & Herzegovina Yes No 8 Kosovo No No * Eurostat ** European Commission
12 2. AVAILABILITY OF BCS IN ADRIA
Services Reference series* Reference series* BCS survey data ** Turnover in services Turnover in services - monthly data - quarterly data SERV 1 Slovenia Yes Yes Yes
2 Croatia No Yes Yes (2008)
3 Macedonia No Yes Yes (2008)
4 Montenegro No Yes Yes (2012) 5 Serbia No Yes No 6 Albania No No No Bosnia & 7 Herzegovina No Yes No 8 Kosovo No No No * Eurostat Database ** EU Commission
13 2. AVAILABILITY OF BCS IN ADRIA
Building Reference series* Reference series* BCS survey data ** Production in Production in construction - construction - monthly data quarterly data BUIL 1 Slovenia Yes Yes Yes
2 Croatia No Yes Yes (2008)
3 Macedonia Yes Yes Yes (2008)
4 Montenegro No Yes Yes (2012) 5 Serbia No Yes No 6 Albania No No No 7 Bosnia & Herzegovina No Yes No 8 Kosovo No No No * Eurostat ** European Commission
14 3. MCD – REF. MONTHLY SERIES
Country INDU RETAIL
European Union (28) 4 4
Croatia 3 3
Slovenia 4 4
Montenegro 6 6
Macedonia 5 5
Serbia 3 3
15 3. MCD – BCS, MONTHLY
EU 28 Slovenia Croatia Macedonia Montenegro
1 2 3 3 3 INDU 2 2 2 4 6 SERV 2 4 4 4 5 CONS 2 4 4 4 5 RETA 2 2 2 4 6 BUIL 1 2 2 3 NA ESI
16 4. CORRELATION BCS – REF. SERIES
INDU EU 28 Slovenia Croatia Macedonia Montenegro
coincident 0,933 0,842 0,702 0,732 0,067
lead 1 0,927 0,885 0,691 0,721 -0,030
lead 2 0,897 0,893 0,711 0,651 -0,101
Ref., monthly index - 2008 May / 2015 Aug, y to y-1 difference, seasonally adjusted INDU, monthly, seasonally adjusted
17 4. CORRELATION BCS – REF. SERIES
Retail EU 28 Slovenia Croatia Macedonia Montenegro coincident 0,760 0,744 0,792 NA 0,071
lead 1 0,788 0,767 0,770 NA 0,049
lead 2 0,764 0,801 0,776 NA -0,071
Ref., monthly index - 2008 May / 2015 Aug, y to y-1 difference, seasonally adjusted INDU, monthly, seasonally adjusted
18 4. CORRELATION BCS – REF. SERIES
BUIL EU 28 Slovenia Croatia Macedonia Montenegro
coincident 0,68 0,89 0,91 0,20 0,76
lead 1 0,83 0,86 0,86 0,17 0,80
lead 2 0,82 0,72 0,70 0,27 0,82
Source of Ref series :Eurostat
Volume index of production in construction, - quarterly data; y – y-1 Seasonally adjusted and adjusted data by working days BSC: quarterly average
19 4. CORRELATION BCS – REF. SERIES
Serv EU 28 Slovenia Croatia
coincident 0,79 0,63 0,91
lead 1 0,54 0,55 0,78
lead 2 0,18 0,28 0,48
Source of Ref series :Eurostat
Index of turnover in services - quarterly data, y – y-1 Seasonally adjusted and adjusted data by working days BSC: quarterly average
20 CONSUMER SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2015 We finished one way of Consumer Survey in Bosnia and Herzegovina and we got results for the same period from CSO of Serbia
September 2015, Monthly Questions EU 28 SI HR ME MK BH
Confidence Indicator (Q2 + Q4 - Q7 + Q11) / 4 - 5,5 - 5,2 -21,5 -19,6 -5,3 -31,48 Financial situation over last 12 months -7,0 -16,3 -20,0 -17,9 -16,0 -19,09 Financial situation over next 12 months 0,6 -3,4 -5,1 3,4 8,6 -7,80 General economic situation over last 12 months -11,1 -21,7 -28,4 -23,7 -18,7 -45,94 General economic situation over next 12 months -4,9 2,1 -8,4 -5,1 4,2 -34,97 Price trends over last 12 months -3,8 -1,2 18,1 15,0 21,0 22,94 Price trends over next 12 months 5,0 -3,4 1,0 -10,0 1,2 16,29 Unemployment expectations over next 12 months 16,3 3,1 21,6 18,5 1,5 31,59 Major purchases at present -0,7 -23,1 -34,8 -51,3 -44,8 -42,07 Major purchases over next 12 months -15,0 -12,6 -28,0 -36,3 -30,1 -31,35 Savings at present 7,3 -23,4 -31,9 -45,7 -6,6 -40,19 Savings over next 12 months -1,2 -16,3 -51,0 -58,3 -32,4 -51,56 Statement on financial situation of household 16,3 21,9 -13,5 -0,6 -7,4 -9,11 21