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A Case Study of Croatian Banks Central____________________________________________________________________________________________________ European Conference on Information and Intelligent Systems Page 78 of 344 Complexity of Information Systems and Bank Size: A Case Study of Croatian Banks Slaven Smojver Croatian National Bank Trg hrvatskih velikana 3, 10002 Zagreb, Croatia [email protected] Abstract. Technological change often promotes in information technology (IT) and increases in its higher complexity which in turn increases usage. Such systems can breed unexpected results, controllability issues and likelihood that something because in complex systems small changes can have will go wrong. large consequences and large changes can have This article explores relationship between size of negligible effects [23]. assets and complexity of information systems of banks Because of problems in predictability of their which operate in the Republic of Croatia. behavior, complex systems have long been seen as Based on a bank survey conducted in 2012 by the sources of significant risk [5]. Based on Croatian National Bank, 25 variables which might characteristics of complex systems, Chares Perrow indicate higher level of information system complexity coined the term “Normal accidents” [24]. The idea were identified and correlated with banks’ assets. behind the term is that, as systems become complex, High degrees of association were found. This with tightly coupled elements, they also become revelation could have implications on banking incomprehensible and partly uncontrollable. Small supervision and, generally, on design of banks’ errors which occur in every system – because of information systems and related control environment. interconnectedness and high degree of interaction in complex systems – cascade into major accidents and Keywords. Complexity, bank, information system, finally, into catastrophes. Additionally, because of IS, IT, size, assets complexity, implemented controls can only alleviate the consequences, but cannot prevent the occurrence of high-impact accidents. In such environment, accidents are bound to happen and can be considered 1 Introduction as “normal”. Therefore – normal accidents. It is important to note that problems arise not only because Note: The views expressed in this article are those of of design (and complexity) of the system, but also the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of because of wrong or incomplete mental models of the the Croatian National Bank. system which prevent prompt corrective or other mitigating actions in case of cascading errors. The word „complexity” has an uncanny trait of being The relationship between complexity and interpreted differently in various scientific areas and technological advances has been an uneasy one. On other fields of human endeavor. The everyday one side, technology is used to manage complexity, meaning of complexity is „the quality or state of not but on the other side it is one of the reasons for being simple: the quality or state of being complex” increased complexity [16]. Relationship between and „a part of something that is complicated or hard technological change and rise in complexity is very to understand” [20]. In the scientific literature succinctly described in CERT Resilience complexity is often assumed to be a quality of Management Model [5, 28]: “More and changing systems that are characterized by a set of particular technology often means more complexity. While the characteristics [1]. It is understood that complexity automation of manual and mechanical processes arises from interconnectivity of (numerous) elements through the application of technology makes these and their interaction within a system and environment processes more productive, it also makes them more [21]. Complex systems consist of numerous complex. Implementation of new technologies can heterogonous components which are highly connected introduce new risks that are not identified until they and are characterized by a strong interaction of those are realized. And technological advances, while components which in turn have significant impact on providing demonstrable opportunities for system’s output [8, 3]. Complex systems are an improvements in effectiveness and efficiency, often increasingly popular area of study, especially taking increase the likelihood that something will go wrong.” into account societal changes facilitated by advances ____________________________________________________________________________________________________ Varaždin, Croatia Faculty of Organization and Informatics September 17-19, 2014 Central____________________________________________________________________________________________________ European Conference on Information and Intelligent Systems Page 79 of 344 To combat risks inherent to complex systems Market research reports [3] show that banks across numerous approaches have been suggested – use of the globe rapidly increase number of distribution modeling and diversity based approach to testing, channels, number of products and their change in approach to systems' design, etc. [5]. connectedness, which leads to increased complexity However, inherently complex organizations and of the processes. Furthermore, since most of the systems first have to recognize their complexity and changes are driven by advancements in information reasons behind it and then try to estimate risks related technology, this increase is especially important for to complexity and determine possible mitigation proliferation of complexity in information systems. techniques and activities. Information systems (IS) can be viewed as a total of information technology, data and data processing This article will explore relationship between the procedures and the people collecting and using these size of banks which operate in the Republic of Croatia data [10]. Therefore, complexity of information and complexity of their information systems. systems surmises technological complexity and organizational complexity related to the technology. It can be presumed that (for universal banks), the 2 Complexity, bank size and larger a bank’s assets are, the more people, technological infrastructure elements, applications information systems and other IS-related resources it uses. On the other hand, it is important to note that banks’ ISs are not Complexity of advanced financial instruments and necessarily built in defensive, safety-critical fashion, complexity and interconnectedness of financial which characterizes construction of ISs in areas where institutions have been pinpointed as some of the main human safety is at risk (e.g. automotive industry, culprits of the financial crisis which started in 2007. health care, defense industry, etc.). Therefore, it can [2] [27]. In the aftermath of the crisis, it was be expected that banks’ ISs have a lower level of recognized that special attention has to be paid to implemented controls, and hence, a cascade of small resilience of large, systemically important institutions errors might not be adequately contained before it [4]. Failure of a systemically important bank can have becomes a full-blown catastrophe. a very high negative influence on the economy as a whole, so it has to be prevented or adequately dealt Relationship between information technology and with. complexity has been studied primarily for critical From the point of view of regulators and banking infrastructures [20][22] such as telecommunication supervisors, systemic importance of a bank is often companies and energy service providers, but mostly positively correlated or even synonymous to the size through case studies. It has also been observed that of that bank (usually measured through total assets). organizational challenges related to technological That is, of all the measures of systemic importance complexity increase the overall complexity [22]. [4], size of assets often has the greatest influence. Influence of technological change on banks has Some other measures include banks’ often been studied in the context of reengineering of interconnectedness and banks’ “financial” complexity business processes [15] and proliferation of banking (complexity here primarily relates to complexity of services and distribution channels [3]. However, the financial instruments and positions). In the case of risk side of this technological change in banking Croatian banks, those measures of systemic business is addressed less often. importance [12] are small or even negligible. On the Recently, issues related to information technology other hand, other indicators show strong market advances and arising complexity in banking have concentration of the larger banks [12] [13] [14, 66- gained more traction. Complexity of information 67]. And finally, in line with the article 3. of the technology and its relationship to business practices in Decision on Protective Layers for Structured the stock market (including the practices of large Systemic Risk [11], Croatian banking regulators banks) has lately been popularized by Lewis [19]. identify banks’ assets as the key measure of systemic Special report published by the Federal Reserve Bank importance of banks operating in Croatia. Hence, it of New York in March 2014 [7] focuses on large can be concluded that asset size is a good measure of banks’ organizational complexity and analyzes systemic importance of Croatian banks. influence of, among other things, technological In European continental banking tradition (which change on banks’ business
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