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Connectivity in South Asia DRAFT Connectivity, Trade Facilitation and Regional Cooperation in South Asia Prabir De April 2013 The author is Fellow, Research and Information System for Developing Countries (RIS), New Delhi, India. This paper has been prepared at the request of the Commonwealth Secretariat. The study is being made available in the form and language in which it was received. Any shortcomings and views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Commonwealth Secretariat or of other institutions named above. This version of the paper is under reiview and has not been copy edited. 1 1. Introduction South Asia’s diversity provides huge opportunities for trade, investment, and economic growth. The region’s remarkable success in recent decades demonstrates this. Geographically, the South Asia region is very wide and heterogeneous. It links Central and West Asia with Southeast and East Asia. Some of the South Asian countries are also members of many forward-looking regional and subregional initiatives such as ECO, SAARC, BIMSTEC and EAS. There are, however, challenges to the South Asian countries to maintain the regional competitiveness and complementarity. One of the best solutions to such challenges is to strengthen regional connectivity and trade facilitation which would further support the regional economic integration.1 India’s rapid economic growth and trade expansion in recent past, in particular its deeper economic integration with economies in South and Southeast and East Asia, have led to substantial structural changes in regional production and trade. While prospects in trade have grown rapidly, challenges too have become more complex. For example, the region has witnessed US$ 16.17 billion intraregional trade against a potential of US$ 37.55 billion in 2010.2 South Asia has succeeded so far to achieve only 43 percent its trade potential, where the unrealization rate (of trade potential) varies from the highest 83 percent (Maldives) to the lowest 42 percent (Pakistan). The economic integration moves well when rising intraregional trade is supported by developed infrastructure, stronger connectivity networks and improved trade facilitation measures. However, this is not the case in South Asia at present. As the Figure 1 shows, South Asia has relatively stronger trade links with neighbouring regions, but it lacks in intra- and inter- regional connectivity. Infrastructure quality varies widely across countries, showing a huge gap between developing South Asia and LDCs South Asia (Table 1). Economic integration depends heavily on the density and quality of connectivity or so to say regional infrastructure. A stronger connectivity not only strengthens the intra- and inter– regional trade but also generates higher income and prosperity.3 What then holds the South region to realize a higher trade potential? Why regional integration across South Asia has been relatively slow? Lack in connectivity undoubtedly plays a critical role for such a below average performance in regional trade.4 Improved trade facilitation, better infrastructure, stronger connectivity, institutions, skilled human resources, etc. are the keys for success of regional integration process.5 More importantly, better infrastructure would encourage fragmentation of production, enhance the regional and global trade, and help realize the integration process. 1 There is a causal link between improvement in connectivity and regional integration and cooperation, Refer, for example, Brooks (2010). 2 Refer, Annexure 1. 3 Refer, for example, ESCAP (2012). 4 Refer, for example, ADB-ADBI (2009), ESCAP (2006), Brooks and Hummels (2009), to mention a few. 5 Ibid 2 Figure 1. Trade and Connectivity Linkage Note: Trade follows the trade in goods in 2010, while connectivity counts regional road and railway lengths, air and ocean shipping frequency as on December 2012 Source: Drawn by author based on IMF DOTS for trade and WDI online database and CIA Fact Yearbook for connectivity data. Table 1. Infrastructure Indicators of South Asian Countries Air Road density Rail density transport, Air Electric Container (km of road (km of rail passengers transport, Liner power Traffic Country per 100 sq. per 100 sq. carried (% freight shipping consumption (% share km of land km of land of total (million connectivity (kWh per in South area) area) population) ton-km) index capita) Asia) 2009 2010 2010 2010 2011 2010 2010 Afghanistan 6* Bangladesh 1.97 1.46 84.60 8.2 279 0.92 Bhutan 32.27 4.90 India 125** 1.95 5.24 1720.20 41.5 616 6.63 Maldives 25.04 1.6 0.04 Nepal 14** 0.96 3.70 93 Pakistan 32 0.98 3.46 309.80 30.5 457 1.46 Sri Lanka 2.23** 13.42 329.50 41.1 449 2.78 *For the year 2006. For the year 2008. Empty shell means data not available Source: Various issues of the World Development Indicators (WDI) 3 Non-tariff policy barriers have gained importance as tariff-based barriers to economic cooperation have generally declined.6 Demand for both national and international infrastructure services, for both production and consumption, and international trade purposes, has been rising in South Asia. If we fail to respond to this demand, region’s trade will slow down which would hamper the integration process. Development of cross-border infrastructure, especially transportation linkages and energy pipelines, across the region, will contribute to the regional integration by reducing transportation costs and facilitating intraregional trade. Therefore, the connectivity challenges, both hardware and software, before the South Asian countries, particularly those are landlocked and island, require better understanding and adequate support. It is with this backdrop that this study makes an attempt to identify the prospects and challenges for regional connectivity and trade facilitation in South Asia. It identifies the contours of the potentials for regional cooperation in regional connectivity and trade facilitation and provides some policy perspectives. 2. Regional Transport Connectivity in South Asia Transport is the backbone of economic activity and social development. Large-scale increases in production and trade have been made possible with advances in transport, such as the diffusion of containerization. When it comes to improving connectivity, each mode of transport – roads, railways, maritime shipping and aviation – has its own physical and operational characteristics which require different considerations. In the South Asia, the maritime and aviation sectors are relatively well connected to their respective global networks. There is also a higher degree of private sector involvement in developing and managing infrastructures in these sectors. From a regional perspective, therefore, the priority should be given to the development and upgrading of land-based transport infrastructure. Tremendous efficiency gains could also be realized by removing non-physical barriers to transport and improving intermodal connectivity. Both of these steps would improve the efficiency of transport services and raise the utilization rates of existing infrastructure. Maritime transport The expansion of international trade across the world has depended on building the capacity and efficiency of its major seaports, particularly container ports. For the past two decades, the container terminals in South region have been handling increasing higher cargoes, dominated by Indian container terminals. However, none of the world’s top 10 busiest container ports is from the South Asia. Asia’s most important liner routes, by volume, still run from Asia to Europe and North America. But there has been a substantial increase in intra-Asian shipping, particularly between India and Southeast and East Asian countries. Driven by trade between India and China, containerized trade in South Asia has also been growing rapidly. 6 Refer, for example, UNCTAD (2011) 4 Figure 2. UNCTAD Liner Shipping Connectivity Index Source: Drawn based on UNCTAD Almost all the coastal countries in South Asia are now linked by direct shipping services or by transshipment and transit operations through hub ports (e.g. Colombo). Nevertheless, there is significant inter-country variation; shipping connectivity is still poor between South Asian countries. On top, there are three landlocked countries and one island country in South Asia, which depend on transshipment ports in neighbouring countries for their trade. One measure of shipping connectivity is the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Liner Shipping Connectivity Index, which includes measures of the number and capacity of ships and the extent of services.7 This shows that between 2006 and 2011, shipping connectivity increased markedly in a number of the South Asian economies such as Sri Lanka, Pakistan and India, while that for Maldives deteriorated (Figure 2). An ESCAP study which analyses differences in trade costs found that liner shipping connectivity accounts for about 25 percent of the changes in trade costs that are unrelated to non-tariff policies.8 Thus, as a country’s liner connectivity index improves, the cost of shipping declines, boosting competitiveness and increasing container traffic.9 Conversely, those countries which have witnessed a decline in liner shipping connectivity are likely to have faced higher trade costs. Governments in South Asia can attract more ships, and a wider range of ships, by investing and maintaining their maritime ports. They may also improve competitiveness by improving the efficiency of land transport,
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