St/Fire Interactions

J ST/FIRE INTERACTIONS Asilomar Conference April 1981 Proceedings of the 1981 Conference Prepared for: FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY Office of Mitagation and Research Washington, D.C. 20472 Attention: Capt. R. E. Peterson, Project Officer Contract No. EMU-C-0585 FEMA Work Unit 2563F SRI Project PYU 3110 (Published August 1981) SRI International 333 Ravenswood Avenue Menlo Park, California 94025 (415) 859-6200 TWX: 910-373-2046 Telex: 334 486 APPROVED TOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED VhtSmitional/ SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PACE (Whmn Pmtm Bntmrmo) READ INSTRUCTIONS REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE BEFORE COMPLETTNr. FORM t. REPORT NUMBER 2. GOVT ACCESSION NO. 4. TITLE f«-d SubtUlm) 5. JXE? OF R£pORT • PERIOD COVERED Blast/Fire Interactions Conference Proceedings Asilomar Conference, April 1981 t- PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBER PYU-3110 7. AUTHOR.o •- CONTRACT OH GRANT NUM>ERf#> Stanley B. Martin EMU-C-0585 Raymond S. Alger (Eds) ». PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS U. PROGRAM ELEMENT. PROJECT. TASK AREA * WORK UNIT NUMBERS SRI International 333 Ravenswood Ave. FEMA Work Unit 2563F Menlo Park, CA 94025 11. CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME AND ADDRESS 12. REPORT DATE Federal Emergency Management Agency Aligner 1QH1 Office of Mitigation and Research 13. NUMBER OF PAGES Washington, D.C. 20472 166, not including appends. 14. MONITORING AGENCY NAME » AODRESSf" dllltrml Inm Controlling Otti-.m) • S. SECURITY CLASS, (ot Ihlm noon) Unclassified IS*. OECLASSIFICATION/OOWNGRADING SCHEDULE 1*. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (at tfilm Hmpott) Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited IT. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (ml «i» ammtfct mnfrmJ In Black 30. If •Httmtmnt Irom Rmport) If. SUPPLEMENTARY NCTES <>. KEY WORDS (Contlnum on rmrmtmm ml4m II mciiwr <*>^ I4ontltf by Hoc* rnmtbmr) Blast/fire interaction research, fire initiation, extinction of fire by blast, blast response of urban structures, fire spread, fire hazards, fire countermeasures 20. A—TRACT (Tmlmmi J •mini —m* tTnmmmmi mwmZMmmiHr *T "«* numkmt) This report summarizes the proceedings of the FEMA-sponsored conference on bias fire research held April 20-24, 1981, at Asilomar, California. This conference, the fourth of our annual series, convened a select group of authorities on fire effects, airblast effects, structural responses, and related technologies to explore avenues of research for remedying the technical deficiencies that limit analytical progress and to seek means for providing interim guidance to mitigation planning and countenneasure Implementation. A redirected R&D program (derived by concensus of conferee recommendations) that appears consistent I JMTW 1473 EDITION or tNOV Wit OMOLETE Unclassified (see over) SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS FACE • Dim Entmtmt) Unelaaaifirt 1KCUWTY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS WAOtCbmi Dm with national priorities and the perceived urgency for increased national securi is offered. Program elements are listed in priority order, and contingent level of funding are provided to aid FEMA budgetary planning. Unclassified SKCUHITy CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGEOriiwi DM. Enlirxf) ABSTRACT This report summarizes the proceedings of the FEMA-sponsored conference on blast/fire research held April 20-24, 1981, at Asilomar, California. This conference, the fourth of our annual series, convened a select group of authorities on fire effects, airblast effects, structural responses, and related technologies to explore avenues of research for readying the technical deficiencies that limit analytical progress ;ind to seek means for providing interim guidance to mitigation planning and countermeasure implementation. A redirected R&D program (derived by concensus of conferee recommendations) that appears consistent with national priorities and the perceived urgency for increased national security is offered. Program elements are listed in priority order, and contingent levels of funding are provided to aid FEMA budgetary planning. iii CONTENTS ABSTRACT iii LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS • vii LIST OF TABLES vii SUMMARY S-1 I INTRODUCTION !_1 Background j_l Conference Format j_3 Agenda „ j_4 Attendance List . i_j II PROGRAM OVERVIEW U_j Agency Welcome and Status II-l Plans and Goals for the 1981 Conference II-2 Future Program Projection II-2 III REVIEW OF CURRENT WORK UNITS III-l 2563F Sensitivity Analysis of Blast/Fire Predictions and Services to Assess and Document Status of Technical Knowledge (Asilomar Conference) . Ill—2 2564E Predictive Fire Modeling III-4 2564B Thermal Flux Accessory for B/F Shocktube (Design) III-5 2564A Experimental Extinguishment of Fire by Air Blast and Thermal Flux Accessory (Installation Phase) III-6 2563G Flame Extinction for Char-Forming Objects . III-9 2564H Response Mechanisms: Blast/Fire Interactions . 111-12 1128D Construction, Instrumentation and Testing of Shelter Design Concepts at the Defense Nuclear Agency MILL RACE Event 111-32 25631 Structural Pebris/DNA Expts. 5401, 5402, 5403 . 111-34 25631 Experiments for Blast/Fire Interactions: MILL RACE Field Event DNA Expts. 5501, 5502, 5503 111-35 2564C Blast/Fire Analysis of Sample Shelters .... 111-37 25641 Secondary Fire Analysis 111-39 2564D Assessment of Combined Effects of Blast and Fire on Personnel Survivability 111-40 IV RETHINKING THE GOALS OF THE BLAST/FIRE PROGRAM .... IV-1 V WORKSHOP ACTIVITIES V-l Workshop 1: "Initial Fire Distribution After Blast" V-2 Workshop 2: Building Response and Debris Distribution V-26 Workshop 3: Fire Growth, Spread, and Threat V-62 Workshop 4: Mitigation and Countermeasures V-75 VI PROGRAM SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS VI-1 APPENDIX A RISK ANALYSIS IN PUBLIC POLICY A-l APPENDIX B MODELS FOR DAMAGE AND VULNERABILITY . ASSESSMENT APPENDIX C FIRE IN AN AIRBLAST ENVIRONMENT C-l APPENDIX D FOREST SERVICE PROGRAMS WITH POSSIBLE APPLICATION TO FEMA BLAST/FIRE PROBLEMS D-l APPENDIX E APPLICABLE RESEARCH AT THE CENTER FOR FIRE RESEARCH, NBS E-l APPENDIX F APPLICABLE WORK SPONSORED BY DNA F-l APPENDIX G ASSESSING THE CONSEQUENCES OF A NUCLEAR ATTACK: THE SAB MODEL G-l VI ILLUSTRATIONS II-1 Initial Milestones Formulation II-5 V-l Blast-Structures-Debris Research Program V-28 V-36 Casualty/Survivability Function V-36 VI-1 Program Projection VI-6 Tables II-l Current and Projected FEMA Blast/Fire Program (FY 1981, 1982, and 1983) II-3 V-l Research Program V-38 V-2 Historical Development of Fire Threat Program ...... V-63 V-3 Fire Vulnerability, Environment, and Spread Research Program Summary V-65 V-4 Basic Functions of a Key Worker/Critical Industry Protection Program ..... V-76 V-5 Research Blast/Fire Interaction Research Required to Support the Mitigation/Countermeasure Program V-78 V-6 Research Outside the Scope of the Blast/Fire Interaction Program Which is Required to Support Mitigation and Countermeasures V-79 VI-1 Recommended FY82 Blast/Fire Program VI-3 VI-2 Tentative FY83 Blast/Fire Program VI-2 vii SUMMARY The 1931 Blast/Fire Conference (occurring three full years into a research program that in 1978 ;-'as conceived to require as little as five years to complete) was an appropriate occasion to compare progress with the original goals and, as appropriate, to set new goals while seeking to provide the best balance between urgency and budgetary limitations. The main goal of the program formulated in 1978—an analytical model for forecasting fire damage in a nuclear airblast environment and thereby guiding the development of mitigation strategies—cannot be reached in another two years; perhaps a decade will be required at current levels of funding. Meanwhile, the international situation could deteriorate abruptly, precipitating a crisis that would require appropriate national emergency-level response. To meet such eventualities, some attention to precautionary planning measures seems in order, even at the expense of slowing progress toward longer term goals. In this spirit, the 1981 conference chose a course of modest funding for the development and use of interim preparedness measures that need not wait for the evolving technological base. The conference also chose to sustain the already established momentum toward resolution of the technical complexities that impede confident development of the predictive methodology. In recognition of the always present possibility that national security funding might be increased, and that any such increase would be reflected in the support of the aims of the Blast/Fire Program, the 1981 program plans were again presented in contingency format. The broad objectives of the program remain as formulated in 1978. However, the redirected program acknowledges interim goals that might be met through semisubjective estimation of key resource vulnerability. At the same time, it recommends continued support of the original aims of resolving the basic blast/fire technical uncertainties. S-l I INTRODUCTION Background In modern warfare, whether conventional or nuclear explosives are used, urban society can suffer heavy collateral damage from counterforce or counterindustry attacks. Cities may be among the targets of strategic attack, as was the case in World War II when fire took such a terrible toll in civilian lives. Fire was also a principal cause of destruction in the urban areas of Japan that were first to suffer the effects of atomic bombing. Any reasonable extrapolation of the experiences of World War II to thermonuclear attack on the United States implies a fire threat of catastrophic magnitude. Unlike the immediate effects of a nuclear explosion, destructive fires can continue to destroy property and threaten

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