BIODIVERSITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Jeremy Carew-reid, SEA Team Leader BIODIVERSITY Ecoregions

Ecoregion Area (km2) % Central Indochina dry forests 4.0 0.0 Chin Hills-Arakan Yoma montane forests 29,810.7 4.4 Eastern Himalayan alpine shrub and meadows 5,316.6 0.8 Eastern Himalayan broadleaf forests 285.5 0.0 Eastern Himalayan subalpine conifer forests 38.5 0.0 Irrawaddy dry forests 35,459.4 5.2 Irrawaddy freshwater swamp forests 15,308.8 2.3 Irrawaddy moist deciduous forests 139,806.4 20.7 Kayah-Karen montane rain forests 56,113.1 8.3 Lower Gangetic Plains moist deciduous forests 3.0 0.0 Mizoram-Manipur-Kachin rain forests 71,183.0 10.5 Myanmar Coast mangroves 15,889.0 2.4 Myanmar coastal rain forests 66,338.2 9.8 Northeast India-Myanmar pine forests 83.0 0.0 Northern Indochina subtropical forests 139,582.7 20.6 Northern Triangle subtropical forests 54,595.4 8.1 Northern Triangle temperate forests 10,813.4 1.6 Nujiang Langcang Gorge alpine conifer and mixed forests 4,635.2 0.7 Tenasserim-South Thailand semi- evergreen rain forests 30,734.1 4.5 Total 676,000.0 100.0 Protected Areas (PAs) Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs)

PAs : 5.75% of land area KBAs: 17% of land area Conservation corridors • The KBAs and corridors provide a foundation for conservation and development management • They need to be refined as further information comes in – especially for the Thanlwin Basin 5 Footer Intact forest losses and trends . High losses of “intact” forest with >80% cover – 11.4% between 2002 and 2014 . Significant increase in degraded forest Two of the most threatened forest types are: . dry mixed deciduous . mangrove forests Dry mixed deciduous forest Irrawaddy dry forests (5.2% of . Most DMDF already lost total) . Less than 2% of DMDF is legally protected Drivers of change: . Conversion of forests to agricultural land . Logging . Fire wood gathering . Poaching and illegal wildlife trade

Based on current trends and drivers 25% to 63% of dry mixed deciduous forests in the Popa Mountain Park will be lost between 2013 and 2043 Footer Trends in mangroves in Rakhine, Mangroves Ayeyarwady and Tanintharyi regions

Only 1% of mangroves formally protected

Source: Weber et al 2014 Drivers of mangrove loss

Past driver of mangrove loss: . Expansion of rice production . Timber – construction and fuel Future drivers of mangrove loss: . Expansion of rice production . Oil palm plantations . Aquaculture . Urban expansion Trends in protected areas Protected Area future trends

. Myanmar has designated 39 PAs covering 38,906 km2, 5·75% of land area. . Seven additional areas have been proposed, which would cover a further 1.09%. . Myanmar's 30-year National Forestry Master Plan set the national target for PA coverage at 10% of total land area by 2030.

NBSAP strategy for achieving that goal Protected Areas in Lower Mekong Countries

Cambodia 22% - 53 natural protected areas classified into five categories

Lao PDR 18% - 14% national PAs plus some 4% locally established PAs = all managed locally

Thailand 19% of national land area (equivalent to 15% of Myanmar)

Vietnam 8% (112 PAs all but three managed by Provinces) Forest cover & HPP development

All planned HHPs are located in the remaining forest areas (44% of total land area)

. 33/84 HPPs located in intact forest (>80% canopy) . 51/84 HPPs located in area of forest cover > 50% canopy Forest cover & HPPs development

33/ 84 HPPs located in intact forest (>80% Canopy) 51/ 84 HPPs located in area in which forest cover > 50% Ecozones in Myanmar Ecoregions AREA % Tenasserim-South Thailand semi- 29,957 4.5 evergreen rain forests Eastern Himalayan alpine shrub 5,306 0.8 and meadows Northern Triangle temperate 10,680 1.6 forests Northern Triangle subtropical 53,784 8.1 forests Chin Hills-Arakan Yoma montane 29,880 4.5 forests Kayah-Karen montane rain forests 54,947 8.2 Irrawaddy dry forests 35,078 5.3 Myanmar coastal rain forests 65,595 9.8 Mizoram-Manipur-Kachin rain 70,513 10.6 forests Nujiang Langcang Gorge alpine 4,461 0.7 conifer and mixed forests Irrawaddy freshwater swamp 15,125 2.3 forests Northern Indochina subtropical 136,610 20.5 forests Irrawaddy moist deciduous forests 138,258 20.8 Myanmar Coast mangroves 15,899 2.4 Total 666,093 100.0 HPPs by Ecozone No. Ecozones % HPPs Irrawaddy moist deciduous forests 11 13.1 Kayah-Karen montane rain forests 15 17.9 Mizoram-Manipur-Kachin rain forests 4 4.8 Myanmar coastal rain forests 9 10.7 Northern Indochina subtropical forests 31 36.9 Northern Triangle subtropical forests 12 14.3 Nujiang Langcang Gorge alpine conifer and mixed forests 1 1.2 Tenasserim-South Thailand semi-evergreen rain forests 1 1.2

Grand Total 84 100.0 Capacity of HPPs by Ecozone Capacity Ecozones % (MW) Irrawaddy moist deciduous forests 2207 4.2 Kayah-Karen montane rain forests 17773 34.1 Mizoram-Manipur-Kachin rain forests 2175 4.2 Myanmar coastal rain forests 801 1.5 Northern Indochina subtropical forests 8115 15.6 Northern Triangle subtropical forests 20344 39.0 Nujiang Langcang Gorge alpine conifer and mixed forests 120 0.2 Tenasserim-South Thailand semi-evergreen rain forests 600 1.2

Grand Total 52135 100.0 HPPs and Key Biodiversity Areas

No. of HPPs HPPs & Constru Existi Plann Postpo KBAs ction ng ed ned Total Inside KBA 4 12 16 < 10 km 3 2 1 6 10 - 30 km 4 11 12 1 28 > 30 km 3 8 22 1 34 Total 7 26 48 3 84

Capacity (MW) of HPPs HPPs & Constr- Exist- Planne Post- KBAs uction ing d poned Total Inside KBA 240 12200 12440 < 10 km 254 3680 1200 5134 10 - 30 km 1411 1588 3387 6000 12386 > 30 km 217 1099 16319 4540 22175 Total 1628 3181 35586 11740 52135 HPPs and Protected Areas

No. of HPPs Constru Existi Plann Postpo HPPs & PAs ction ng ed ned Total Inside PAs 1 1 2 < 10 km 2 1 1 4 10 - 30 km 2 5 8 1 16 > 30 km 5 18 38 1 62 Total 7 26 48 3 84

Capacity (MW) of HPPs Constr- Exist- Planne Post- HPPs & PAs uction ing d poned Total Inside PAs 30 600 630 < 10 km 130 280 1200 1610 10 - 30 km 310 948 3698 6000 10956 > 30 km 1318 2073 31008 4540 38939 Total 1628 3181 35586 11740 52135 CLIMATE CHANGE Precipitation change in dry season

21 Precipitation change in wet season

22 Average Max Temperature change in dry season

23 Average Max Temperature change in dry season

24 CC and ecozones – Rainfall change in dry season

Prec dry BL Prec dry Prec dry ECO_NAME AREA Eco code (mm) 2050 (mm) change (%) Irrawaddy freshwater swamp forests 15,124.6IM0116 107.1 132.2 23.2 Myanmar Coast mangroves 94.5IM1404 149.0 179.3 21.8 Irrawaddy dry forests 2,241.3IM0205 87.1 102.3 18.3 Kayah-Karen montane rain forests 54,946.8IM0119 126.3 147.8 17.3 Myanmar coastal rain forests 3.5IM0132 142.4 163.2 16.4 Northern Indochina subtropical forests 136,691.1IM0137 168.1 190.7 13.6 Irrawaddy moist deciduous forests 129,802.4IM0117 103.4 115.6 12.5 Northern Triangle temperate forests 10,680.4IM0402 308.7 345.5 11.9 Eastern Himalayan alpine shrub and meadows 5,262.1PA1003 176.4 196.0 11.0 Northern Triangle subtropical forests 53,718.4IM0140 294.7 320.9 8.6 Tenasserim-South Thailand semi-evergreen rain forests 58.7IM0163 280.0 300.8 8.4 Nujiang Langcang Gorge alpine conifer and mixed forests 4,489.3PA0516 210.7 228.1 8.1 Andaman Islands rain forests 2.7IM0101 241.8 260.8 8.0 Chin Hills-Arakan Yoma montane forests 29,775.3IM0109 173.0 182.3 6.7 Mizoram-Manipur-Kachin rain forests 70,552.8IM0131 160.2 169.3 6.0 CC and ecozones – Avg. Tmax change in dry season

Tmax dry Tmax dry Tmax dry ECO_NAME AREA Eco code BL (oC) 2050 (oC) change (oC) Eastern Himalayan alpine shrub and meadows 5,262.1PA1003 9.5 11.7 2.2 Nujiang Langcang Gorge alpine conifer and mixed forests 4,489.3PA0516 14.1 16.1 2.0 Northern Indochina subtropical forests 136,691.1IM0137 25.7 27.7 2.0 Northern Triangle temperate forests 10,680.4IM0402 18.7 20.4 1.8 Kayah-Karen montane rain forests 54,946.8IM0119 30.2 31.9 1.7 Irrawaddy dry forests 2,241.3IM0205 31.9 33.6 1.7 Northern Triangle subtropical forests 53,718.4IM0140 22.4 24.1 1.7 Irrawaddy moist deciduous forests 129,802.4IM0117 30.6 32.2 1.6 Tenasserim-South Thailand semi-evergreen rain forests 58.7IM0163 30.5 32.0 1.5 Irrawaddy freshwater swamp forests 15,124.6IM0116 32.7 34.1 1.5 Myanmar coastal rain forests 3.5IM0132 31.9 33.4 1.5 Mizoram-Manipur-Kachin rain forests 70,552.8IM0131 27.2 28.7 1.5 Chin Hills-Arakan Yoma montane forests 29,775.3IM0109 23.5 25.0 1.5 Myanmar Coast mangroves 94.5IM1404 31.2 32.7 1.5 Andaman Islands rain forests 2.7IM0101 29.6 31.0 1.4 Climate change – precipitation in dry season Climate change - avg tmax in dry season CC and HPPs - Average max temp in dry season CC and HPPs – rainfall change in dry season CLIMATE CHANGE SHIFTS

Regular climate shifts 1. Geographic shifts (space): . latitude and longitude . elevation 2. Seasonal shifts (time) . onset and end, . variability Extreme events shifts 3. Extreme event shifts – intensity, regularity, location . Micro events – eg flash flooding and soil loss in uplands . Macro events – eg saline intrusion in Delta; cyclone landfall The complex linkages between hydropower, biodiversity and climate change . Climate change affects all sectors and will have a big impact on biodiversity and hydropower . In the GMS the relationship between hydro and biodiversity has not been a good one. . And transformations induced by climate change could aggravate that tension. . We need to understand the relationship in order to manage it affectively. Thank you