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Read Full Report (PDF) Equity Research - 23 November 2020 20:46 CET Embracer Group Reason: Post-results comment Long-term strengthened, Q3 downside risk Company sponsored research Q2 adj. EBIT SEK 653m, +18% vs. ABG, +21% vs. cons Not rated Long-term outlook enhanced, downside risk in Q3 SOTP fair value SEK 157-228 (156-212) per share Estimate changes (%) 2020e 2021e 2022e Estimate beat and 13 acquisitions in Q2’20/21 Sales 1.4% 9.2% 11.8% Embracer delivered a very strong Q2 report, with adj. EBIT of SEK EBIT (rep) -25.7% 24.8% 25.5% 653m, +18.1% vs. ABGSCe and +20.9% vs. consensus. Revenues were EPS (rep) -2.6% 24.7% 25.1% SEK 2,383m +11.1% vs. ABGSCe and +15.5% vs. consensus. The Source: ABG Sundal Collier Games segment comprised 62.7% of revenues, driven by both strong 23/11/2020 new releases like Destroy All Humans and strong back-catalogue sales Share price (SEK) 164.0 from, for instance, SpongeBob remastered and Metro Exodus. As such, Fair value range (per share) 157-228 the Games segment grew organically by 61% y-o-y according to management. In total, 13 acquisitions were announced (see page 6). IT, Sweden EMBRACB.ST /EMBRACB ST ABGSC Q3e adj. EBIT SEK 455m, -17% vs. cons Looking at Q3’20/21e, we think that the market should be prepared for a MCap (SEKm) 69,586 slightly slower quarter for the Games segments. The new game pipeline MCap (EURm) 6,817 in Q3 is thinner than the last two quarters, with a game development cost Net debt (EURm) -580 of SEK 150-175m (see page 5). As such, the Games segments will have to be driven by back-catalogue sales, which should be strong given the No. of shares (m) 424 seasonally favourable Christmas period, but likely not enough to keep Free float (%) 60 the pace set in Q1 & Q2. We arrive at a Q3e adj. EBIT of SEK 455m, for Av. daily volume (k) 2,917 a margin of 23.8%. This is approximately 17% below the average of FactSet consensus estimates, which were updated after the Q2 report. It Next event Q3 report: 18 Feb is still very early to call the quarter, and back-catalogue sales during the Christmas season could surprise; however, given where we stand today, Performance we think that consensus could come down ahead of the Q3 report. 700 600 EV/adj. EBIT 25-16x 20/21e-22/23e, in line with peer group 500 Following our estimate changes, which were driven by the inclusion of 400 the 13 acquisitions and the strong Q2 report, we raise our fair value 300 SOTP range to SEK 157-228 (156-212) per share. We base our SOTP 200 100 fair value range on our segment ’21/22e EBITDA estimates, which we 0 18 19 20 17 18 19 20 18 19 20 18 19 20 18 19 20 then discount by a WACC of 7.5% (see page 9 for more details). In 18 19 20 Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Mar Mar Mar Nov Nov Nov Nov Sep Sep Sep addition, we find that based on our updated estimates, and at the current May Embracer Group May OMX STH PI May share price, Embracer is trading at an EV/adj. EBIT of 25x-16x for 1m 3m 12m 20/21e-22/23e, which is in line with our peer group median. Absolute (%) -8.4 0.7 155.7 OMX STH PI (%) -77.4 -76.4 -74.8 Analyst(s): [email protected], +46 8 566 286 13 [email protected], +46 8 566 286 37 Source: FactSet SEKm 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2020e 2021e 2022e Sales 5,754 5,249 8,589 10,960 12,039 P/E (x) 1,826.2 122.9 89.9 EBITDA 1,592 1,821 3,563 4,518 5,021 P/E adj (x) 28.9 22.0 19.4 EBITDA margin (%) 27.7 34.7 41.5 41.2 41.7 P/BVPS (x) 3.39 3.01 2.92 EBIT adj 880 1,033 2,494 3,377 3,871 EV/EBITDA (x) 17.9 13.7 12.1 EBIT adj margin (%) 15.3 19.7 29.0 30.8 32.2 EV/EBIT adj (x) 25.5 18.3 15.7 Pretax profit 545 409 167 765 1,046 EV/sales (x) 7.41 5.65 5.05 EPS rep 4.22 0.91 0.09 1.33 1.82 ROE adj (%) 17.2 14.5 15.2 EPS adj 7.47 3.11 5.67 7.44 8.43 Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0 FCF yield (%) -3.1 2.5 1.6 Sales growth (%) 1,033.7 -8.8 63.6 27.6 9.8 Lease adj. FCF yld (%) -3.1 2.5 1.6 EPS growth (%) 140.3 -78.5 -90.1 1,386.2 36.7 Net IB debt/EBITDA -1.7 -1.7 -1.8 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Lease adj. ND/EBITDA -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report This research product is commissioned and paid for by the company covered in this report. As such, this report is deemed to constitute an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit (i.e. not investment research) as defined in MiFID II. Embracer Group Company description Risks Embracer Group acquires, develops and publishes PC and Despite Embracer Group’s broad portfolio, there are risks console games for the global gaming market. Its core associated with larger title releases as they have a business model consists of acquiring established gaming relatively large impact on sales right after launch. brands and gradually improving them. Much of Embracer Moreover, disappointing releases or reviews could dent Group’s soul stems from entrepreneur, founder and CEO end-customer enthusiasm and hurt the company's Lars Wingefors, who at the age of 16 founded Nordic finances, especially during the launch period. Delays in Games, which we today associate with Embracer Group. planned and ongoing gaming projects could adversely The game changer came in 2013 when most of today’s affect the group’s profitability. Acquiring established but brand portfolio was acquired from THQ Inc’s insolvency. At temporarily underperforming gaming brands and gradually the start of 2018, the company acquired Koch Media, which improving them increases the potential risk of performing focuses on game development and gives Embracer Group below market expectations. a larger publishing business. Annual sales and adj. EBIT margin Quarterly sales and adj. EBIT margin 14,000 45.0 3,000 40.0 40.0 35.0 12,000 2,500 35.0 30.0 10,000 30.0 2,000 25.0 8,000 25.0 1,500 20.0 6,000 20.0 15.0 15.0 1,000 4,000 10.0 10.0 2,000 500 5.0 5.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 2020e 2021e 2022e Q4'20e Q1'21e Sales (LHS) Adj EBIT margin % (RHS) Sales (LHS) Adj EBIT margin % (RHS) Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data EPS estimate changes, 2020e, SEK EPS estimate changes, 2021e, SEK 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 1.5 2.0 1.0 0.5 1.5 0.0 1.0 -0.5 -1.0 0.5 Jul-20 Jul-20 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 ABGSC FactSet Consensus Mean ABGSC FactSet Consensus Mean Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet Net debt and ND/EBITDA adj. 12-month forward-looking P/E 0 0.0 1,000.0 -1,000 -0.2 (0.0) -2,000 -0.4 (1,000.0) -3,000 -0.6 (2,000.0) -4,000 -0.8 (3,000.0) -5,000 -1.0 -6,000 -1.2 (4,000.0) -7,000 -1.4 (5,000.0) -8,000 -1.6 (6,000.0) -9,000 -1.8 (7,000.0) -10,000 -2.0 (8,000.0) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-19 Nov-20 2020e 2021e 2022e Net IB debt excl. leasing (LHS) Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (RHS) P/E f12m 5y avg Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data 23 November 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 2 Embracer Group Deviations Q2’20/21e Deviations Q2’20/21e vs. ABGSCe vs. FactSet consensus Deviation to estimates (SEKm) Actual Actual ABGSC Deviation Consensus Deviation Net sales Q2'19/20 Q2'20/21 Q2'20/21e SEKm % Q2'20/21e SEKm % Games - THQ Nordic 330 567 510 56.9 11.2% Games - Deep Silver 442 507 475 31.8 6.7% Games - Coffee Stain 45 130 110 19.9 18.1% Games - Saber Interactive n.a. 259 270 -10.9 -4.0% Games - DECA Games n.a. 33 30 2.7 9.0% Games Total 816 1,495 1,395 100.4 7.2% Partner Publishing/Film 444 888 750 137.8 18.4% Group 1,260 2,383 2,145 238.2 11.1% 2,063 320 15.5% COGS -635 -1,034 -973 -60.8 - Gross profit 625 1,349 1,172 177.4 15.1% 1,167 182 15.6% Operating costs -450 -759 -697 -61.9 - EBITDA 418 969 828 141.1 17.0% 844 125 14.8% Depreciation & amortization -342 -796 -820 24.4 - Adj.
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