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Government Media Monitoring Unit GOVERNMENT MEDIA MONITORING UNIT DATE: JANUARY 17TH, 2006 TIME: 9.06AM STATION: 6PR MORNINGS(MURRAY) SUBJECT: BURKE – GALLOP SUCCESSOR This transcript is produced for information purposes only. Although all care is taken, no warranty as to its accuracy or completeness is given. It is your responsibility to ensure by independent verification that all information is correct before placing any reliance on it. MURRAY I think it’s fair to say Brian Burke was no political ally of former premier Geoff Gallop’s. In fact, Dr Gallop tried to stop Mr Burke having any influence on Labor politics at all when he became the premier, basically tried to ban Mr Brian Burke and his partner Julian Grill from any lobbying activities with the Gallop Government. It didn’t work and they appeared to lobby very successfully during that time. Brian Burke, it’s fair to say also, I think, that no-one knows more about Labor politics in this state than Brian Burke and that’s why I’ve asked him to come onto the program today and talk about the Gallop premiership and where it goes from here. He joins me now. (greetings not transcribed) So how do you think this leadership contest will play out? BURKE Well it’s difficult to say at such an early stage, when most people are preoccupied with supporting Geoff and his family and making sure he comes through this very difficult period, as well as possible. It will become clear, as the candidates firm up and my guess is that there are three realistic candidates – they are Jim McGinty, Michelle Roberts and Alan Carpenter. My feeling is that if a consensus candidate emerges it will be Alan Carpenter and that will.. he will emerge as a result of Jim McGinty deciding not to run. And it may well be the case that Michelle Roberts will acknowledge that Alan Carpenter has the numbers. However, in a ballot, Alan Carpenter has fewer supports than either of the other two and if it goes to a ballot… MURRAY 2 …you mean just on raw factional support. BURKE On raw factional support he’d have less, Alan would have less than a handful of votes, so he would run a very poor third, if they all contested the ballot. MURRAY And it was only done on the basis of what the factions had decided. BURKE Well, of course, and that would be the case, because if Jim McGinty decided to run then the Left would be regimented to support him; the new Right would be quick to fall in behind Michelle Roberts, who’d probably also appeal to the old Right and to some of the Centre, and then some of the Centre and the unaligned would support Alan. But that would leave him with the least of the three tallies. MURRAY It appears from the calls I’ve been able to put in, that no-one particularly wants to go to a ballot on this issue. BURKE Yes that’s true. MURRAY Why’s that? BURKE Traditionally ballots are divisive and hurtful, they damage people and personalities, then carry forward the sort of hurt and anguish, so if something can be arranged on a more, if you like efficient and quieter basis, that’s eventually… essentially what’s done these days. MURRAY Okay, so the focus is on Alan Carpenter. What might stop him coming through as a consensus candidate? BURKE Just one thing and that’s if Jim McGinty decides to run. 3 MURRAY Well, yeah, my understanding is that Mr McGinty would only decide to run if Alan Carpenter didn’t get wide support. Why wouldn’t Alan Carpenter get wide support, he’s well known, he appears to have been a reasonably successful minister? BURKE Well I think there probably would be a depth of support for Alan Carpenter and that support would be sufficient for him to win, if Jim McGinty decides not to contest the ballot. It’s as simple as that. MURRAY There appears to be some level of concern that Alan can be a very testy character; he has some personality traits that don’t endear him to some people, is that the sort of matters that are going to be debated over the next few days? BURKE Well I think they are some of the worries that will come into consideration. Let’s be completely frank about it, people will say that Jim McGinty was previously the leader of the Labor Party and that he was unelectable as leader and was replaced at the behest of his own Left faction, because he was so unpopular. They’ll say that Michelle Roberts has on three or four occasions as the minister for justice, primarily, been involved in instances of bad publicity and in matters, issues that have reflected unfavourably on her electability. And people will say that Alan Carpenter has a temperamental nature or is unpredictable and irascible. But that’s what people say about other people all the time in ballot situations, no-one’s perfect and you are not going to have a situation in which there’s some pre- imminent candidate, so universally loved and regarded, that people won’t find fault. Of course they’ll find fault. Paul I’ve even heard people sometimes, very rarely, criticise you. MURRAY Rubbish. Look on McGinty, you and McGinty have belted heads together for 20 years, so I mean people should have that in their minds when I ask you a question about McGinty. McGinty’s unelectable nature, that was 10 years ago that he ceded the leadership to Geoff Gallop. I mean he’s certainly, if not the highest profile Minister in the Gallop ministry, then he’s pretty well close to being the highest profile Minister. Can you redeem yourself by a good performance as minister? BURKE Well Paul, let’s set the record straight first. I’ve never had, in my recollection, a cross word with Jim McGinty. MURRAY 4 But Brian, he’s from the Left and you’re from the Right. BURKE Of course and if I can finish, I’d say that it’s my view that he’s the best of that the Left has produced in this state during my period in politics. Having said that, I’m one of those people who say that he’s been an efficient and able Minister, he appears to be well on top of his portfolios and he appears to be one of the few ministers who achieves progress or change with a minimum of fuss. He’s universally regarded as able and competent and as far as I can see, he can’t be convicted of anything during the period of the last five years when he’s been a Minister. Now, I guess there are lots of good ministers who don’t make good leaders. I can’t answer the question. I can confirm what you just said, that 10 years ago he was forced to relinquish the leadership without taking the party to an election and that was because, on the basis of research, it was demonstrated conclusively that he was unpopular. Now, if I was pushed to the absolute limit, I’d say that he’s been a good success as a Minister, but there’s still a big question mark about whether or not Jim as the leader would command the same respect and or popularity. I don’t know the answer. MURRAY Okay, Michelle Roberts comes from the same side of the Labor Party as you, but is not a factional ally of yours, in fact, you’ve sparred pretty much in recent times. Has she got a legitimate chance in this race? BURKE Yes she has. In some ways, Michelle Roberts is the best politician of all of the candidates. That may sound strange, but she has the most intimate feel for the street. I think that she’s made some decisions that have been roundly criticised and for that she’ll pay dearly. At the same time, she’s the only person who could beat McGinty, if McGinty decided to run, because McGinty will depend for his majority on the votes that Michelle Roberts commands. If those votes don’t go to Jim McGinty, but stay with Michelle, it then becomes an interesting question about what the balance of the Caucus, the Centre and the old Right do. Will they support Michelle Roberts, or will they support Jim McGinty? That’s part of the reason why I think that Alan Carpenter’s likely to come through the middle and be a consensus candidate. MURRAY Yeah, for those who don’t know how the Labor politics work and roughly without getting into the raw numbers, it comes down to about a third, a third, a third. A third, the Left supporting McGinty; a third, the Right supporting Michelle Roberts and a third, the Centre and a couple of unaligned like Carpenter and Dr Gallop, formerly Dr Gallop and the bloke down in Rockingham. 5 BURKE Mark McGowan. MURRAY Yeah. So they all need… so to get one through, they need the support of at least one of the others. BURKE That’s right. So for the past five years, the faction led by Michelle Roberts and John D’Orazio, has always voted with Jim McGinty. And those two, in combination, have had a majority of the parliamentary Labor Party. However, if Mr McGinty, Jim McGinty and Michelle Roberts are both candidates, presumably that combined majority won’t exist.
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