Birds Crossing Borders: a Population Study of Arctic Terns

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Birds Crossing Borders: a Population Study of Arctic Terns BIRDS CROSSING BORDERS: A POPULATION STUDY OF ARCTIC TERNS (STERNA PARADISAEA) by Catherine M. Devlin B.A. Human Ecology, College of the Atlantic, 1993 M.Sc. Ecology and Evolution, Rutgers the State University of New Jersey, 1997 A Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Biology Supervisor: Antony W. Diamond, PhD, Biology and Forestry and Environmental Management Examining Board: Graham J. Forbes, PhD, Biology and Forestry and Environmental Management, Chair Stephen B. Heard, PhD, Biology Tom Beckley, PhD, Forestry and Environmental Management External Examiner: Emmanuelle Cam, PhD, Laboratoire Évolution et Diversité Biologique (EDB), Université Paul Sabatier, Toulouse III (UPS), France This dissertation is accepted by the Dean of Graduate Studies THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW BRUNSWICK November, 2005 © Catherine M. Devlin, 2006 Dedication I dedicate this dissertation to all of you who have had your vision obscured by the beating of a thousand tern wings, have had your ears filled with their boisterous incessant calls, have held a pipping egg to your ear and a downy chick in your hand, and have had the reverie of island life broken by a sharp thwack on the head from a beak to remind you that even though you are working in their interest, you are only a visitor in their world. i Abstract The Gulf of Maine offers a unique opportunity to examine the population dynamics of seabirds at a metapopulation scale. Approximately half of the estimated 12,800 pairs of Arctic Terns breeding in eastern North America nest in the Gulf of Maine and over 90% of these pairs nest on only four islands. Building on existing monitoring programs and recognizing that terns, like many species, do not recognize political boundaries, this study established a long-term project to fill gaps in the understanding of the population dynamics of Arctic Terns, using 1953 adults and 3891 chicks banded and observed on four islands in the Gulf of Maine between 1999 and 2003. Two discriminant functions identified the head-bill and bill depth of adults as the best measurements to separate the sexes. These functions correctly classified 73-74% of terns. A non-linear equation fitted through a plot of the probability of classifying an individual and the discriminant scores provides a way for researchers to calculate the probability of sexing any Arctic Tern. Approximately 50% of adults and 8% of chicks banded on Machias Seal Island (MSI), Petit Manan Island (PMI), Seal Island (SI) and Matinicus Rock (MR) were re- encountered. Probability of re-encountering adults ranged from 0.16-0.74, depended on year and colony, and was generally highest on Matinicus Rock. Probability of re- encountering terns banded as chicks ranged from 0.003-0.336, depended on age and colony, and was highest for 4-year olds from Seal Island. The probability of survival for adults when controlled for transient individuals was 0.77 (SE=0.028) the first year following banding and 0.97 (SE=0.027) for subsequent years. Probability of survival for terns banded as chicks was age-specific ranging from 0.55 (SE=0.189) from fledging to ii 1-year and 0.83 (SE=0.181) for those terns > 1 year old. Mean age of first breeding for 109 terns was 2.8 yrs (SE=0.08). Probability of breeding dispersal ranged from 0.0- 0.025; emigration was highest from PMI. Probability of natal dispersal ranged from 0.01-0.07; emigration was highest from MR. A population viability analysis indicated that current trends in productivity, survival and dispersal may lead to the doubling of the regional tern population within 50 years. iii Acknowledgments This work was funded by the Atlantic Cooperative Wildlife Ecology Research Network (ACWERN), the Canadian Wildlife Service, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the National Audubon Society‟s Seabird Restoration Program, the Sir James Dunn Wildlife Research Centre at the University of New Brunswick, and the Ecological Monitoring and Assessment Network. I thank my dedicated and hard-working supervisor, Tony Diamond, the Diamond ACWERN Lab and the larger ACWERN community, my supervisory and examining committees, the Saunders and Clark genetics Labs, the Department of Biology and others at the University of New Brunswick, the Canadian Wildlife Service (especially those in the Atlantic Region), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (especially the Maine Coastal Islands National Wildlife Refuge), the National Audubon Society‟s Seabird Restoration Program and Project Puffin, the U.S.G.S. Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, the Lighthouse Keepers and all those involved with the guardianship of Machias Seal Island, and all members (past and present) of the Gulf of Maine Seabird Working Group and the Atlantic Canada Tern Working Group. I whole heartedly thank each and every one who has been involved in supporting this work. I thank all those who gave advice in the planning, collaboration, data collection, analysis, writing and presentation stages, the boat captains who made sure that everyone arrived at and returned from the islands safely, the birds, and the many field assistants and island supervisors who helped collect data and made this work possible; I thank my iv family for their love, encouragement and endless patience; and lastly I thank everyone who wrote a tune or shared a tune, a story, a paper, a book, made me laugh, gave me a kick and encouraged me to continue with this work. v Table of Contents Dedication ........................................................................................................................... i Abstract .............................................................................................................................. ii Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................ iv List of Tables .................................................................................................................... xi List of Figures ................................................................................................................ xvii 1.0 Birds Crossing Borders: Metapopulation Study of Arctic Terns .......................... 1 1.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Background and Population Biology Context ............................................................. 3 1.2.1 Seabird Life History and Demography ......................................................... 3 1.2.2 Metapopulations ............................................................................................ 5 1.2.3 Capture-Mark-Recapture / Re-encounter .................................................... 10 1.2.4 Population Viability Analysis ..................................................................... 11 1.3 Study Species: Arctic Terns ....................................................................................... 13 1.3.1 Distribution and Status ................................................................................ 14 1.3.2 Life History ................................................................................................. 15 1.4 Objectives .................................................................................................................. 16 1.5 Study Location and Historical Populations................................................................ 18 1.5.1 Machias Seal Island .................................................................................... 19 1.5.2 Petit Manan Island ...................................................................................... 20 1.5.3 Seal Island ................................................................................................... 21 1.5.4 Matinicus Rock ........................................................................................... 22 1.6 Overview of Chapters ................................................................................................ 23 1.7 Literature Cited .......................................................................................................... 24 2.0 Sexing Arctic Terns in the field and laboratory .................................................... 47 2.1 Abstract ...................................................................................................................... 48 2.2 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 49 2.3 Methods...................................................................................................................... 50 2.4 Results ........................................................................................................................ 53 2.5 Discussion .................................................................................................................. 56 2.6 Acknowledgements .................................................................................................... 59 2.7 Literature Cited .......................................................................................................... 60 2.8 Addendum .................................................................................................................. 66 2.8.1 Literature Cited ........................................................................................... 67 3.0 Metapopulation analysis of the survival and breeding dispersal
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